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 After a long hiatus, I've decided to dive back into the Naked Capitalism comments section to fish for IM Doc's remarks on his experience as a physician "in the time of covid." I tend to search only through the posts that have some health-related theme in the title (or the links/watercooler posts), therefore, I may be missing some.

So, starting with June 2022... it turns out he was quite busy.

Without further ado...

Mikel

Notes from the Deathcare world:

A relative was telling me how she just found out medicare would no longer cover podiatrist visits by diabetic patients. The nurse said it’s the insurance companies making the decisions. Not even the alleged “medicare supplement” is covering that procedure.

 
  1. flora

    Is that traditional Medicare with medigap or is it Medicare Advantage (MA) that’s stopped covering? Medicare Advantage is not traditional Medicare. ( MA insurance companies go to long lengths to hide the fact their plans aren’t traditional Medicare or Medigap plans. surprise.)

     
  2. IM Doc

    Your nurse relative has informed you correctly.

    I just found this out last week when I had to admit an elderly patient for osteomyelitis of the toe. I was horrified to learn they had not had a podiatry appointment for some time. It is not that they are not covered – it has to do with how many they have in a year, etc. I just cannot keep up with the regulations anymore. Standard Medicare has one approach and then the infinite numbers of Medicare advantage plans have all their own. I often joke that they each get together and change the plan coverage every Tuesday afternoon. There is no primary care physician or office staff on this planet that can keep up with all of this. It is absolutely overwhelming.

    To add on to the nightmare, there are dozens of my patients every day now playing “dial for drugs” because there are so many shortages everywhere. The above patient could not secure antibiotics prescribed by an urgent care and did not want to “bother” my office during COVID. Yes, we are now officially sending our elders out with prescriptions that may or may not be able to be filled.

    If you have elders or infirm in your sphere of influence, I urge every one of you to keep an eagle eye on them. Things are already screwed up – and getting more screwy by the week. Many of them just do not have the mental acumen or the stamina to keep up with it.

    I cannot stress enough – I have never seen this level of chaos in medicine in my life. Not even close.

    It is not just baby formula, folks.

     
    1. ambrit

      Oh boy. I had better start seriously investigating “natural” substitutes for my hypertension meds.
      Anecdotally, I still cannot find a medico around here who will write a prescription for “The ‘I’ Drug.” If anything, the local low socio-economic status clinic is visibly cutting back on procedures and scrips. My medica recently had a claim to Medicare for blood work related to my cholesterol level denied because it was “…too soon after the last claim.” (Her words.)

       
    2. IM Doc

      FYI –

      This is a report from 60 Minutes from just the past few weeks about the issues related to drug shortages –

      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/generic-drugs-pharmaceutical-companies-60-minutes-2022-05-22/

      This report mainly deals with all the trouble that hospitals are having procuring simple basic drugs – like GLUCOSE – you read that right – GLUCOSE. We can make sugar galore for Froot Loops, Snickers, Dr Pepper and Hostess Twinkies – but making sugar for preemies? TOO HARD AND NOT ENOUGH PROFIT IN IT. What is happening to this country?

      But the problems in the outpatient world are just as bad. Just now in the office a patient’s daughter reported the grandson had to drive 80 miles to get her mother’s potassium prescription. We had similar issues with magnesium this morning. Thyroid replacement is a very precise dosing – yet we often have to get by with higher or lower because many of the myriad doses are not available that week.
      Getting things like Ensure and Boost for the malnourished is becoming an ongoing daily problem. Simple old antibiotics are often unavailable forcing us to use others that may not work as well or have unwarranted toxicity issues. Various types of birth control pills are up and down on availability and changing them out is not a great idea. And the shortages are rotating and unpredictable. What may be available today is impossible to find 2 weeks from now and then widely available again 2 weeks later.

      It really is all getting to be too much. I go into work every day telling myself – “I am not going to let anyone die today.” Simple things that we used to be able to do like personal call backs on labs and tests are just no longer able to be done. We have far too many critical issues that must be dealt with immediately. And there is the constant spectre of something falling through the cracks. That is not a sustainable morale. My staff, what we are able to keep employed, is just bug-eyed by the end of the day. I know from colleagues that this is more widespread than we would like to imagine.

      I am not griping. It is an untold privilege to do what I do. But every day is a gut punch. And patients rightfully are getting more frustrated and angry by the day. I pray that what happened in Tulsa yesterday will not become the norm.

Below, check out the comments by Fiery Hunt (later in the snippet) and by "Skip Intro" and ask yourself - since when do vaccines require precautionary actions on the part of the injected... aren't they supposed to BE THE PRECAUTIONARY ACTION?  The answer may be "Since we started using "vaccines" against a virus that's never been successfully vaccinated against..."

Space Station 11

My .02 regarding the current Covid wave…I too have heard of many in my circles testing positive, but almost exclusively with minor symptoms (including my elderly mother who was laid up for about 36 hours, but did take paxlovid). As for a community perspective, well, I am a mid-career emergency medicine physician at a larger inner city academic institution- level 1 trauma/burns, regional referral for ECMO- and I have not seen a ‘sick’ case of Covid in months. Probably not since 2021. By sick I mean- needing to be admitted on oxygen, needing to be intubated, considered for ECMO, etc. I’ve canvassed a lot of my faculty about this and everyone has the same experience- lots of positive tests, but usually with minor symptoms or completely unexpected (e.g. in trauma transfer patients).

I’m not sure what to make of this. I guess I have a middle-of-the-road attitude w/r/t the pandemic: I was very worried initially, treated a lot of very sick patients in the initial and Delta waves, I’m vaccinated and boosted (required for employment, although we had almost nobody in our staff quit d/t the vaccine mandate), follow masking guidelines when required but I will admit that I don’t often wear them in public now. Covid has become, basically, a nuisance to me- a reason for my kid’s daycare to shut down, as has happened multiple times requiring a very difficult scramble for my wife and I (she’s also an EM doc with irregular hours). Our entire family got Covid in January after my 1 year old brought it home from daycare, and there’s really no protection against that, which probably contributes to my current attitude. As for my patients, the opioid/meth crisis and a very obvious rise in violence (GSW/stabbings) over the past 1-2 years is a much bigger public health concern right now.

Just thought I’d give my thoughts as a long-time reader.

 
  1. Fiery Hunt

    Thanks Doc…appreciate the perspective.

    Been very much preoccupied by the conflicting thoughts of “This is an ongoing PANDEMIC!” and “It really doesn’t seem to be that big a deal…”

    Nice to hear an informed voice that’s not screaming “We’re DOOMED!”

     
  2. IM Doc

    I am not sure what to make of this whole situation either.

    And it is always good to have other physicians with whom to compare notes.

    The COVID pattern in the past 2 months has taken a completely different direction than I would have expected. I live/work in a very vaccinated area that is surrounded by very unvaccinated areas.

    We are no longer doing any kind of official counts through the health department for outpatient care – so I have no official numbers. What I am seeing and it has now been a fairly consistent pattern for weeks is absolutely huge numbers of cases in my own practice – as in 7-8 times the numbers seen in the exact weeks from 2021. In a population that is now almost completely vaccinated. I find that very concerning. The same cannot be said of the unvaccinated areas which I really am not hearing from at all. So that right up front is a problem. We are having many times more the cases in a year that has vaccinated patients – compared to a year that did not – 2021. And almost entirely, the cases being called into me ( assume that would be the sicker patients) are from the highly vaccinated areas and almost always vaccinated/boosted patients.

    Furthermore, seeing a routine around 5% of patients being routinely screened in the hospital prior to surgery, tests, etc being positive and having no symptoms at all. Just found on routine screening. This is a rather large number. Multiple issues as outpatients living in the same house where I have all the vaccinated/boosted patients ill, while the unvaxxed are positive but with just minimal symptoms or not sick at all. Very strange.

    Seeing the exact same thing here as you are as far as admissions – almost zero. And the ones that are being admitted are often for social reasons – and would never have been dreamed to be admitted when the hospital was stressed. And certainly no ICU, vents, or ECMO.

    But many of these patients as outpatients are indeed fairly ill – but not hospital level. Again, the concerning thing is the overwhelming preponderance of these ill patients being vaccinated/boosted – and the fact that they are in such much higher numbers than what was seen in early June 2021.

    Since no formal numbers are being counted, it is very hard to make any judgements. But with talk in the doctors’ lounge it is clear my colleagues are seeing mostly the same thing. I am hearing similar stories from my colleagues across the country.

    So we have a vaccine that seems to definitely be preventing death/bad illness, at least from acute respiratory issues. But at the same time, as outpatients, the vaccinated seem to be much more affected with case numbers and outpatient illness. Almost invariably, the sicker the patients are as outpatients, the more likely they are to have been vaccinated/boosted. Really vastly so. I do have concerns with this pattern going forward and what this may portend if more noxious variants are conceived.

    I have never felt so strange as a physician. I have been trained and practiced for decades to take in what I am seeing around me and listen to my colleagues and mold what I do based on what I am seeing. But, those in charge of our public health apparatus seem intent on continuing on the same course and not really being too transparent with how they are arriving at their recommendations. It is very disquieting. Because a lot of what is being recommended does not seem to be appropriate with what is going on in my world or many of my colleagues.

    I am not sure what to think. One thing I know for sure. This is not over.

  1. Fiery Hunt

    One possible thought as to why the vaxxed are “sicker” than the unvaxxed:

    Behavior.

    Vaccination rates here in the Bay Area are pretty damn high and Alameda County just announced there’s more hospitalization now than last summer during Delta.
    So many people here in the Bay Area act as if getting “boosted” is some sort of magic spell that wards off Covid. Travel, gatherings, hell, just going out to restaurants, bars, music venues..
    Can’t help but wonder is there isn’t a correlation between wealth, lifestyle and being an extrovert…(high vaccination rates) vs working class (“essential workers”!) introverts…(non-vaxxed).

    Spending hours in gatherings, traveling, attending events versus just wanting to go home.

    The alternative seems to point toward a vaccine= worse response to infection and that’s a whole nasty can of worms.

     
    1. flora

      Forgive me pointing out the original and boosters were sold on exactly the promise they would ‘prevent infection and transmission.’ People believed what they were told, imo.

       
  2. IM Doc

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-infection-rate/

    This is a classic example of what I am talking about. The article seems to be pointing out the same thing I and my colleagues are noticing as I describe above.

    What is concerning to me is the response. My response would be “what is going on medically to produce such an outcome?… what if anything does this mean for the future?…..how should this help us with our advice for the legion of increasingly skeptical patients who are asking every day about getting a 4th shot?” The response described in the article is paraphrased as such – “recording case calculations is the problem, therefore, we should stop doing it.” No curiosity about why this is happening.

    Understanding WHY things are happening is often a fundamental part of understanding biomedical issues. This is the beating heart of being a diagnostician. And so many times we seem to be ignoring the WHY because the numbers are inconvenient or not fitting the current narrative.

    I can point to many many such articles where the discussed response does not seem to make much sense. This is what is being pushed out to our populace. They are not stupid. They see the same things I do and are bringing them to me daily unsolicited. It is very frustrating for everyone.

     
    1. Skip Intro

      It may be wishful thinking, but in my experience many people who are vaxxed and boosted believe they are completely safe, and take virtually no precautions. They are suffering from vaccine-propaganda-induced risk blindness.

NC post says: IM Doc flipped out when he saw this tweet. And GM confirmed that it’s not true, that more died under Biden even if you give him a one-month grace period after he was sworn in:

 

Here's NC talking about hospitals gaming numbers (heh, that's only happening in June of 2022?)... and they have very nicely quoted the famous Dr. Natalia as well... When I clicked on her link the original post cannot be viewed (must be blowback from being ratioed) -- but also interesting to note that the follow-up comments are filled with people asking "Really? Is this common? Haven't seen that here?..." in other words, Dr. Natalia, cite your sources?
 

A new way for hospitals to game the data:

 

 

 

 

IM Doc writes: “I would guess with Omicron about 60% of the patients were on Dexamethasone – so no – not an adequate proxy” for hospitalization.

Just a reminder:

As with everything else, because the United States is not a serious country, our hospitalization data is bad. Here the baseilne is off:

 

 

In this post (https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/06/100-million-people-in-america-are-saddled-with-health-care-debt.html) on healthcare debt, IM Doc says, 

IM Doc

I thought Obamacare was going to be affordable? Remember it was called the Affordable Healthcare Act?

A plan put in place by the party of the working man, with a big smile on their face. “It is a big f#$%ing deal”.

Actually Obamacare was the final nail in the coffin of my profession. It was the hand-over of all that generations of physicians had held dear. Handed over with gusto to Big Hospital, Big Insurance and Big Pharma.

There are now more people in debt to these big industry companies than ever before. And they have no compassion, no mercy, no soul.

Every single month, when I have new students, one of the first things we do is listen to an old song by Woody Guthrie — the best rendition of it is by Merle Haggard at this link –

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0f78MDOUJw

I reiterate the following words from that song to those students all the while they are looking at me as if I am from outer space ——

Jesus Christ was a man who traveled through the land
Hard working man and brave
He said to the rich, “Give your goods to the poor.”
So they laid Jesus Christ in his grave
.

He went to the sick, he went to the poor,
And he went to the hungry and the lame;
Said that the poor would one day win this world,
And so they laid Jesus Christ in his grave.

Yes, if Jesus was to preach today like he preached in Galillee,
They would lay Jesus Christ in his grave.

American New Deal Liberalism at its finest – something that virtually no one remembers today in all our woke glory.

I know I am the old man from the before times. I realize that. We live in such a much more advanced world today, don’t you know.

For thirty years, I did everything I could to model this for my students and residents and colleagues. Just as it had been modeled to me by my grandfather. He gave everything he could to help those around him – and died not wealthy in financial terms, although not poor either. No, he died very wealthy indeed, as there were 6000 at his funeral praising him for all he did for them.

I do my best to tell these kids it is far better to build your obituary than it is to build your resume. There is something transcendental about giving everything you have and expecting nothing in return. It strengthens you to give your time and energy to those who have nothing.

My profession has sold its soul to Mammon. The consequences are just now being fully realized. My grandfather always told me about his youth. And how it was all fun and games until one day the money just vanished. “That will happen to your generation one day, son, and when it does you will know instantly who you can trust.” His words strengthen me every day as I see this going on all around me. I know it cannot last long.


IM Doc

I must get something off my chest.

There is also a lot of very incorrect information circulating about this issue and I feel it needs to be addressed so we can all be on the same page.

You may have heard that the American Board of Internal Medicine ( ABIM from now on ) has decided to go after Drs McCollough and Kory – 2 of the more famous dissenters from the COVID narrative. This all blew up over this weekend. I am hearing from all kinds of sources online that ABIM is going after their LICENSE.

Please note – this is NOT THE CASE. Licenses to practice medicine are administered by the states. The ABIM nor any other Board can go after someone’s license. They are however, trying to strip them of their ABIM certification. That is a way in which the ABIM certifies that a doctor has demonstrated expertise in whatever field it is given. These are completely separate issues. The ABIM is duty bound to report anything negative it finds about a physician or their conduct to the state licensing board, but that is the end all to their ability to affect a license.

Losing your Board Certification however is not without consequences. Most insurance companies will not contract with physicians unless they are certified. Most hospitals will not have them on their staff either. However, a physician can obtain a license from any state in the country and practice medicine.

The bureacratic overreach of these certifying boards has been the subject of much strum and drang the past 10 years or so. They are very expensive and time-consuming to maintain and have basically become a manner of rent extraction from the plebes to the medical elite. In my and many other’s opinion, the initial certification is of great import – all the rent extraction and multiple tests for the rest of one’s career does nothing but enrich the chosen few of these Board’s leadership. It is very much a scam. The entirety of this can be found documented for years on the following website – drwes.blogspot.com – if you are so interested. In recent times, this has led to multiple states banning the Boards from this onerous behavior.

Alas, the ABIM has now apparently dragged the AMA into this whole affair. The AMA has put out a very ominous statement in the past few days that they will be going after any and all spreaders of “disinformation” and will be using the social media, media, Medical Boards, State licensing agencies and anything else at their disposal to silence the evil doers.

As a medical historian and teacher of history for decades, I would suggest to the AMA and I have already personally relayed to the 2 members of the ABIM that I know personally that medicine has a very long history of exactly the kind of behavior they are planning. I am very hard pressed to come up with a single instance where it has worked out well for those going on the witch hunt. In fact, it has often detonated in a very bad way for them. I am going to assume this will end in a similar disaster for these agencies and they should take heed of the warning from history before they have completely torched whatever credibility they have left.

Medicine is science. And unfortunately, for these people who have decided science is their new God, it is never settled. Just in my career, I have seen aspirin, statins, hormone replecement therapy, and opioids used for years because it was “settled” science only to have that overturned with lots of experience and lots of very good research. I have also sat and listened to countless presentations and debates about these issues that were often very vehemently violent. Everyone watching knew the stakes, and knew the hearts of the partisans on both sides. But the verbal and public debate was critical for our understanding and how to proceed going forward. Those who have their finger on the scales thinking they “know the way” are often proved very very wrong.

So censoring or punishing these COVID dissenters in a very public way like this is exactly the wrong thing to be doing. These agencies seem to have no clue that they are holding on to just a shred of credibility that could vanish if they are perceived by the public in the wrong way. A much more appropriate way to handle this is to get McCollough and Kory on one side and experts of your choice on the other – and let them have it out online or on national TV. Everyone in this country has a stake in this debate – let the American people watch. Dr. Hotez and Dr Offitt and Dr. Wen, there will not be a better way to make these two like boobs. You are clearly very confident in your position – I would say go for it. WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO BE AFRAID OF?

There as so many examples of this behavior in medical history that have gone off the rails for the witch hunters, it is hard to come up with a “best” one. Probably, the most congruent for a situation today is the case of Dr. Ignasz Semmelweis. I would encourage everyone to read his story. It is so important that the pre-eminent medical historian of the 20th century, Sherwin Nuland, wrote an entire book about him called THE DOCTOR’S PLAGUE.

Dr. Semmelweis had an idea that he felt would make life much safer for patients in the hospital He went all over Europe and discussed his findings in all kinds of venues. The areas that followed his advice, notably Scotland and parts of France, had marked improvement in the situation. That did not sit well the leaders of the day – most notably Dr. Koch ( famous for his postulates and the Fauci of his day). He and others went about destroying not his ideas – but his reputation, his livelihood and eventually his sanity. They did not really want to argue the merits with him – just tarnish him.

What was the grave “disinformation” that Dr. Semmelweis was peddling? It is basically local infection control in the operating room , ie the aggressive use of PPE and disinfectants on the skin during surgery. This egregious “disinformation” has likely saved billions of lives since Dr. Semmelweis.

A Supreme Court justice had a famous line that “sunshine is the best disinfectant.” Jesus Christ himself taught us that we will know the truth, and it will set us free.

ABIM and the AMA – I urge you to get these two on the stage and let’s have a real debate about these issues. If your contentions are so correct, what do you have to lose? Give them everything you have – make them look like morons…….WHAT ARE YOU AFRAID OF?

My concern is they saw the Dr. Fauci/ Rand Paul exchange last week and realize there is actually a lot to be afraid of.

 
  1. voislav

    McCullough has repeatedly lied about vaccine sideeffects, including claiming 50,000 deaths from vaccines in the US. He didn’t do this as a private citizen, he used (and misrepresented) his medical credentials to advance this information. I’ve done tons of scientific research (50+ papers), worked on covid research early in the pandemic, so I am familiar with how bad a lot of covid research is. That is not an excuse to go about spreading lies, lies that cost lives.

    When it comes to McCullough and people like him, I take a very dim view. Criminal charges should be a minimum, forget revoking their medical license. I understand the argument for open discussion, but not when people are dying because of their scummy behavior. There is no reasoned discussion when one side is making stuff up. Show me data, we can discuss how dismal statistical analysis in medical sciences is, but the onus can’t be on one side to disprove assertions made without any evidence.

     
    1. IM Doc

      There are times in emergencies when we as practicing physicians have to not depend so much on exact studies which will come much later. We have to depend on what we are seeing and hearing with our own eyes and pay very close attention to colleagues both in our area and those we know elsewhere.

      So what have I seen with my own ears and eyes? I have one patient in my practice who most certainly died from the vaccine complication. I have done all I can do to report it last April and was completely blown off by both the FDA and CDC VAERS program. Interestingly, it is a very unusual problem that was the demise of this patient that timed perfectly when they got the vaccine. Over the months, this problem has now become a fairly commonly reported issue with these vaccines. I have also had two other patients who just literally dropped dead within hours/days of the vaccine. Both were younger and healthy at baseline. I cannot as safely call them vaccine deaths. It may have been random chance but I doubt it. I have had another patient who had the worst blood clot I have personally ever seen within days of the fourth shot and died from it. I have had 27 severe or critical vaccine complications over the past 18 months, confirmed to me just today by an audit of charts done by colleagues in my hospital noting how much higher this was in 2021 compared to the past two years.

      This is real time information. It will not appear in any published studies for probably years. It is definitely a clue to what has been going on, though. And we cannot ignore the most ominous issue which is the very substantial increase the life insurance companies are having to pay out since the introduction of the vaccines. I am certainly glad that you have read 50 plus papers, but my life’s training and work would say this kind of data will arrive in papers much later. We must react to what is going on now. On the ground docs must monitor all that is going on around them and make judgements.

      I have many colleagues all over the USA who will readily admit that yes they have had at least one vaccine related complication leading to death. It is not uncommon at all. Unfortunately as you state no one on a federal level is too interested in improving data collection.

      A quick Google search reveals there are right at 65000 practicing internists. Let’s say a third can make the 1 death statement. I think that is probably low from discussions. That would be 25000 deaths or thereabouts. Now, we must add the even larger workforce of family and general practitioners who number over 100000 and all of a sudden the 50000 number is not out of the ball park at all.

      I can see where a reasonable person could make that claim. And I would be willing to testify to that in court and even bring these patient’s families if needed and let the jury decide if the timing of the deaths and their nature are realistic for vaccine issues. It may come to that since the FDA does not seem to be really interested in helping us with this issue at all.

      And sorry, your claim of scaring people holds no merit. Look at the rotavirus vaccine disaster of 1999. I believe we had less than 20 deaths from that and it was suspended instantly. The swine flu disaster was less than 50 patients. The denguevax did not even make it out of trials because of this issue. There was a time when we weighed risks and benefits and realized that even 20 or 50 deaths across the country was too high a price to pay. Surely, you must realize there have been way more than 50 deaths from these COVID vaccines. But now Pharma has co-opted our regulatory agencies. We are the blind leading the blind.

Fraibert

I think there’s a larger game in play here.

You’re right that the most rational and fair way of addressing the dissenters’ views is a public debate. However, that lets the dissenters speak, and the real point is to prevent them from speaking. The method chosen by the elite also discourages future dissenters from getting ideas–my guess is that revocation of board certification (which, as you note, already has serious professional consequences) is just a way point towards the real destination of onerous state licensing investigation and (in the establishment’s ideal world) license revocation.

It’s all just another variation on “lawfare.”

To that end, Drs McCollough and Kory are ideal targets. Both were pretty successful physicians if you look them up.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Both are so successful as physicians that it is going to be very difficult to take them down using this tactic. If they succeed in gutting their ABIM certifications, I can guarantee you that the lawyers will be lining up to take their case. I happen to know two of these lawyers who take on Medical Boards and licensing agencies on the behalf of physicians and their nicknames among their peers are Ballbuster and Nutcracker. And they have earned every bit of those names..

    I have read the list of wrong think put forth by ABIM on both physicians. If they do take away their board certification, lawsuits will soon follow. And then in the course of events will be discovery. I know enough about the situation to realize that if discovery proceeds, I am thinking the ABIM may be in a very bad position. Especially in this climate of every month something new comes out. For example, a year ago, both were being cited for discrediting the claim of 98% effectiveness and that the vaccines would cause the vaccinee to be a dead end for transmission. How has that worked out in the fullness of time? There are other things on these lists that I am certain will be just as likely to not go well for the establishment narrative.

    In other words, this has the potential to be very interesting. Stay tuned.

IM Doc

Sorry, this was meant for the censoring article……this is in regard to the impending investigation of COVID narrative challengers Drs. McCollough and Kory. Sorry all, I put this comment in the wrong post……..

And for those interested in how the ABIM ( American Board of Internal Medicine ) conducts their investigations, I would point you to this piece of journalism.

http://drwes.blogspot.com/2017/03/fact-check-on-abims-director-of.html

This was a few years before COVID, but as far as I know, the basic regime is still in place. These organizations are accountable to no one, certainly not their members.

Please note, it is not physician scientists who are investigating, it is washed up GI Joe military-adjacent goons with an attitude. I can only imagine how their “security” thinking has evolved since the start of this pandemic. Sadly, my forebears in medicine would be shaking their heads in absolute shame.

America, is this how you want this COVID issue investigated? This approach or a public debate?

This is all very concerning to me. The health of the nation is involved here. Why are not enterprising young journalists not all over this stuff? This is what careers are made of.

 
  1. flora

    Thanks for the link. I’d guess if the ABIM pulls their board certification of either of these two docs a lawsuit will follow, where discovery should be interesting.

     
  2. Tom Stone

    There are perhaps three internet based outlets where an enterprising young journalist might get such an expose printed.
    None of the networks would touch it and none of the print outlets would either, with the possible exception of “Teen Vogue”.
    The going has gotten very weird indeed.

     
    1. flora

      Most of the MSM is owned by 6 giant corporations/billionaires. MSM isn’t a large, dozens of owner/ players, diverse, media ecosystem. Might have something to do with nearly identical stories in print, on TV, on radio, and on the twit/fb pages. Glad Teen Vogue is breaking out of the bubble.

       
  3. IM Doc

    I can answer my own question about the young journalists.

    Here is today’s wonderful example –

    https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1539086445209690112

    One of the most well known reporters at The Washington Post mocking and condescending a suffering COVID patient.

    Lateral ableism???? In decades of human care, I have never heard that expression even once. When I performed a google search, there were three different definitions, and for the life of me, I cannot figure out how any of those definitions applies here.

    These people just like to throw out “big words” and hope that everyone thinks they are really intelligent.

    I used to think that this young reporter, Ms. Lorenz, had all the signs of narcissitic bipolar syndrome with a touch of borderline. It is becoming more and more clear to me by the day that she would fit right in with Ti or Do of the Heaven’s Gate Cult.

    Of course the Washington Post of Watergate lore is not investigating any of these important medical things now – they are too busy giving this psych patient a platform.

I don’t think she was mocking him (that was the whole point!), but she was certainly atrociously condescending. She was also stupid to call out Yglesias for his original joke. I mean, pick your battles, Taylor.

A real shame because as far as I can tell she is one of the few mainstream journalists who continues to draw attention to the ongoing seriousness of SARS2 and Long Covid, which is a genuine service at this point. Unfortunately dragging out stupid shite like “lateral ableism” instead of something like “yep, you know what, fair play, I see your point, good health to you” is not exactly ‘hearts and minds’ stuff.

I must admit, as a psych patient, I am surprised to see you refer to psych patients with such casual derision. Presumably people with psychiatric illness are entitled to journalistic careers, so long as they don’t go full Stephen Glass?

 
  1. IM Doc

    Yes – even I get carried away with my disdain for these people. I should be much more measured with my words.

    What I would say is she is the toughest kind of psychiatric problem to deal with. She has a severe personality disorder. Probably borderline given her behavior when I have seen her on TV interviews and her propensity to dox and torment people for doing the same things she is. Projection is one of the worst symptoms of borderline and she seems to have added severe passive aggressive tendencies. She is also very adept at what is known as “splitting”. That is a well known combo for a very difficult and frustrating patient. They cause nothing but chaos among providers when we try to care for them. We physicians use the words “psych patient” and quite frankly worse frequently to vent our frustration in private to peers and really that has nothing to do with the legion of people out there who have organic psychiatric issues like depression anxiety and schizophrenia, etc.

    It is very concerning to see someone with this type of behavior being given such a platform where she can manipulate and “split” an entire country.

    Again, I should be much more measured with my words and realize I am not with peers on this board. For that I apologize.

    Unfortunately as is so often true with borderline patients, any good in the world they do is often extremely overshadowed by all the antics and mayhem they cause – just like this reporter.

Raymond Sim

So Doc, remember back when I had some harsh things to say about Alex Berenson, among others? You made a rather impassioned argument involving the need to accept that bad people can do good things, even if for the wrong reasons.

Taylor Lorenz has, as Basil Pesto notes, been a rare mainstream media voice calling for Long Covid to be taken seriously. Yglesias on the other hand is a minimizer.

Who cares what sort of emotional horror show Lorenz may be?

Additionally, while I greatly appreciate your contributions here, and I’m deeply grateful and indebted, to you for them, your remarks about Lorenz seem perilously close to tele-diagnosis. And surely your last sentence isn’t meant to imply being a psych patient should make one subject to deplatforming*? But it reads that way – what exactly is her offense?

*If it does mean that, can we deplatform that Canadian loon psychologist? I’m against censorship, but I’m really sick of his face showing up in my YouTube suggestions, and the republic’s shot to hell anyway, so ill wind and all that …

 
  1. IM Doc

    Well, psychiatry is the one area of medicine that is very able to be characterized on video and what someone wrote. Indeed, 2 of the 4 semesters of my med school human behavior had finals with just 10 written paragraphs and we had to identify the psych disorder from the written word. 1 other semester had 30-60 second snips from movie and TV shows of behavior that we then had to diagnose and the other semester had brief live acting.

    It is fairly easy to identify personality and behavior disorders from video snippets. Her videos I would say are classic textbook examples of behavior identified as borderline and narcissist. I would be happy to use them in any demonstration for students when trying to demonstrate it. I do this all the time. Just today, I used a short snippet of Sophia from The Golden Girls to demonstrate to my students confabulation – a sure sign of micro vascular dementia.

    As for why she got all my animus about that tweet. I have zero tolerance for using photos of suffering patients to make any point. Especially a virtue signaling point. For the same reason, I had such vitriol for all the young doctors making TikTok videos about the unvaxxed. If I had exhibited either of those behaviors as a medical student or resident 30 years ago, I would have been fired instantly. I would flunk a student on the spot for the whole rotation if they pulled a stunt like that just once. We live in a different world now but I tend to not just ignore but actively dismiss anything people who use these tactics say. I find it incongruent with informed discourse.

    I would appreciate if you could point me any place that Berenson has taken a photo of a suffering patient and behaved that way. I certainly have not seen it. He is often very juvenile in his comments but nothing that rises to the examples I have outlined above. Indeed, his juvenile comments often make what he has to say very difficult to get to. But again, I have never seen him engage pictures of suffering people. I have a tolerance for him because he is one of the few journalists that truly seems to be able to handle statistics in medicine. He had the Big Pharma beat at the NYT in the day they when were doing real news. You can instantly tell the difference between him and the stenographers that are all over the mainstream media today covering this story. He is the only one I know of that understands relative vs absolute risk, as one example, and did his best to explain that to people all the while the NYT and CNN were screaming 95% 95% 95%. I realized long ago that Berenson is an example of how the media would have handled this pandemic in my youth – tough questions and hard nosed assertions. It was amazing watching as all the other media types melted like snowflakes in reaction to him this past year. And because he actually knows how to engage scientific literature, who has had the benefit of being proven correct way more often than these others? As a professor, we learn to put up with a lot from students when they are being hammered by others but who clearly are persistent with their convictions.

    About her take on Long COVID. This may be so. But what is happening to her is one more piece of evidence I have that she is deeply into borderline personality. It is a characteristic of these people that whatever good they do is dwarfed by their constant antics and hysteria. A comment above points out she has been demoted. This too is characteristic. Constant job loss, resignation or firing. People cannot stand to be around them as charming as they may be. If she is the spokesman for Long COVID in the mainstream media, I would suggest that position needs someone else immediately.

    By the time they are 50 or so most of these borderline patients have had it hammered out of them. If they manage to survive. I certainly hope she can see that while being demoted and begin to work on her behavior.

     
    1. Raymond Sim

      Well, psychiatry is the one area of medicine that is very able to be characterized on video and what someone wrote. Indeed, 2 of the 4 semesters of my med school human behavior had finals with just 10 written paragraphs and we had to identify the psych disorder from the written word. 1 other semester had 30-60 second snips from movie and TV shows of behavior that we then had to diagnose and the other semester had brief live acting.

      Wow, your response is far more interesting to me than the original topic, and coming from you it’s quite disconcerting.

      Eschewing all sarcasm, your remarks strike me as an indictment of psychiatric diagnosis, and potentially medical diagnosis and pedagogy generally.

      Is it just me? I’d be very interested to read others’ takes on the passage I’ve quoted.

       
      1. IM Doc

        Actually I would disagree with you.

        I would make it very clear that the teaching of human behavior in the modern medical system is just a remnant of what it was when I was young.

        My education in human behavior came from a line of thought back then that was called “transactional analysis” – I’m OK – You’re OK. It was about half the time in the first 2 years of med school – that is how important it was thought to be for medical providers.

        TA was very big in the 60s 70s and 80s. Not so much now. I do think it should be though. I see students struggling with dealing with patients all the time.

        Basically, it employed what is known as the therapeutic sequence. To make things simple – there are about 15-20 different personality types. And you as a provider should be able to spot them instantly. They all behave in very different ways. And not just active behavior – how they hold themselves, how they dress, how they do makeup, how they speak, how they move their eyes, hand gesticulations, how they move their mouths, etc.

        About 40% of the population is estimated to be what is called “a genital character” – you are able to bounce around in the personalities depending on the situation. Sometimes, it is important to be antisocial sometimes histrionic. These patients are considered “normal”. The other 60% are “stuck” in one of the personalities and are dysfunctional because of it.
        And you as the provider have to be able to recognize these instantly, because how you proceed through the therapeutic sequence is dependent on what you are seeing from them.

        Therefore, it is critical to be able to instantly evaluate appearance, cues, speech patterns, eye movements, mouth movements, etc. You must know the “character” you are dealing with at all times. You would approach telling a borderline they have cancer much differently than a schizoaffective, etc.

        It takes years to master this – but it is essential. And it is a large part of what makes a “bedside manner.” But this type of thing is completely ignored in modern medicine – these kids today are learning none of this.

        Accomplished actors know these things instinctively and can change their mannerisms accordingly. For example, within 5 seconds of seeing Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, I knew the character was a borderline personality disorder. She is an incredible actress. And yet within seconds of watching Glenn Close in Dangerous Liasions it is crystal clear that her character was a narcissitic personality disorder.
        Within seconds of watching or listening to Stevie Nicks, it is crystal clear she is a schizoaffective personality – and the witch stuff all makes sense. I can go on and on and on. And as a physician, I would handle these patients very very differently.

        I am very appreciate of the era in which I grew up. Human behavior and the ongoing mastery of it is essential for a physician – and it is being completely ignored today.

  1. Basil Pesto

    The reinfection study is ‘hoo boy’ stuff. I expect it will be hoisted to links tomorrow. The general conclusions aren’t unexpected by any means but to see it so starkly in writing is… rather bleak.

     
    1. psmith

      Yes, I found it upsetting reading, especially in the context of precautions being dropped and new variants becoming dominant.

       
      1. Ignacio

        Thank you psmith
        That was interesting read. My bad I now don’t have time and/or willingness to go to the actual paper being this always a good exercise.

         
    2. IM Doc

      This is an example of something I am seeing on the ground. In rather large concerning numbers. Lots of reinfections and many are so quick after the preceding infection. This is a first blush attempt at research for what me and many colleagues are already seeing for the past month or so since the post-Omicron phase started.

      It seems like the patients tend to get more ill on every episode as well.

      I really would like for someone to really do these kinds of studies with the vaccines in mind. They do not appear to be effective in stopping this at all nor do they seem to be that effective in mitigating the symptoms. What is very concerning to me is to this day is that many of the vaccinated have a feeling they are safe and sound. If they get sick, it will not be bad. They CANNOT become critically ill. So far we are not seeing that much critical illness – but I promise you, the vaccinated are getting very sick.

      I am really concerned if/when a more virulent variant comes around.

In this post (https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/06/fast-and-furious-omicron-new-variants-defy-explanation-and-dont-bode-well-for-future-either.html), NC takes on the proliferation of Omicron variants. You may consider reading the whole post, which I'll not copy here.

Here is IM Doc's comment following the post:

IM Doc

I view my most important job as a physician to be education of my patients. To tell the truth as I see it at all times and to give my commentary on the current data based on experience. I took to doing this on this site earlier in this pandemic because I could not see that was happening too often in the media landscape.

As such, I will give this update on where we are in my practice with just today’s numbers, which I will be discussing with inquiring patients today.

My staff and I maintain a spreadsheet daily of what we are seeing. No one in officialdom seems to care about this type of on the ground data – but I think one day it will be very helpful for those learning about what happened during this pandemic. Every morning I am given a condensed top line list of the patients with COVID that were encountered the day before.

Right up front, I work in one of the most vaccinated counties in the USA, >80% vaccinated – >60% boosted. The surrounding areas where a good number of my patients come from is at best 50% vaccinated.

Yesterday, I had 45 COVID patients evaluated by me or my staff. More than 50% of these were from 2 different superspreading events, one a wedding, the other a performance. Out of these 45 patients, one was completely unvaccinated, 17 were double vaccinated, 9 were vaxxed with one booster and 19 were vaccinated with 2 boosters.

The very concerning thing to me is how many of these were reinfections. Of the 45 patients, 37 were reinfections, and 11 of those have just been within the last 6 weeks.

This is right in line with what I have been seeing for the past few weeks and it is also right in line with what is reported in this paper. Reinfections are becoming more and more frequent – and the patients, vaccinated or not, are getting sicker with each episode.

First of all, the majority of these patients at this moment in time are not all that sick. But some of them really are quite ill. 12 from yesterday to be exact.

Much has been made of Simpson’s paradox in our national media the past few weeks in an attempt to explain away all these infections and reinfections in the vaccinated. It is a very complicated statistical concept, but in general it basically is this – I work in a >80% vaccinated area so I would expect >80% vaccinated patients. Therefore, we are good. THIS IS EXPECTED. The writers of these articles know nothing of medical statistics and this is profoundly misleading. It is making people much more comfortable than they really need to be.

It is absurd to invoke Simpson’s paradox in this situation for 2 reasons –

a) Simpson’s paradox has never been invoked in a vaccine situation to my knowledge – not one time. This goes back to the sterilizing vs non-sterilizing issue. We would just not even see patients at all if the vaxxes were sterilizing. Simpson’s paradox is perfectly appropriate to discuss in medical therapy for heart disease, etc.. For vaccines, it is completely inappropriate.

b) Much more important – June 21st of 2021 – I had 2 COVID patients – in a much less vaccinated environment – June 21st of 2022 I had 45. This is important if you assume some seasonal variation. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT HAVE THIS LEVEL OF DIFFERENCE and invoke Simpson’s paradox

What these writers and news outlets are doing is very dangerous – and is giving the vaccinated a sense that they are bulletproof. WE ARE ALL GOOD – MEDICAL STATISTICS TELL US THIS WAS EXPECTED – EVERYTHING IS GREAT. This is not a good message. It is not based in reality.

My education bullet points to my patients—— This is very serious. Your vaccine status is giving you zero protection from catching and transmitting this virus. We have no idea what these frequent infections can do to you, but my sense is it is not good for you. PLEASE PLEASE do not depend on this vaccine to protect you from infection. Take every precaution you can. There is evidence that it may protect you from severe illness, but even that seems to be not as solid as it was before.

And I go back to what I have been saying all along. Get healthy, get your a1c down, get your waist size down. Eat well. Sleep well. Enjoy good times with your family. Get out in the sun. De-stress. Get going on the VIT D and ZINC. Please please be careful.

Everyone here – I would say the same to you – please be careful.


.....

I will, however post the entirety of this next post as it's pretty much IM Doc's email to the NC folks:

Growing Revolt Among Medical Practitioners Against Vaccinating Toddlers for Covid

Posted on June 24, 2022 by 

IM Doc has been particularly unhappy about the push to deploy the Covid mRNA vaccines in children under five years of age. Based on his many years working on an Institutional Review Board, he believe the bar for safety testing for children, particularly very young ones, is high, and it has not been met for these vaccines.

It turns out he is far from alone. It appears many medical practitioners are seeing vaccinating kids this young as a bridge too far and some are flat out refusing to administer them.

From IM Doc via e-mail:

I had a moment today where I realized that it may very well be the nursing and the pharmacy professions that begin the long slow pushback against the overprescription of Covid vaccines.

Two things in two different parts of the country happened.

Today in our county, which recall is over 80% vaccinated and hence has been very receptive of Covid vaccines for adults, I was called to an urgent meeting because it may be that hospital staff would need to be pulled to the Health Dept. Why? – Because the inoculation of the less than 5 is beginning – and all 3 of the Health Department nurses resigned in protest. They are simply not going to give these kids these inoculations. When a nurse on my staff was approached with filling in the deficit – her response (in my presence and that of the supervisor) – “Not only no – but FUCK no.”

It turns out the county Health Department found no nurses willing to do this. So our entire vaccine program for everyone not just kids was on hold.

After more panicked efforts, they found one nurse to give the shots. That nurse too refuses to give it to the babies. She will be there only to do the shots for 18 and up. She will not even give to teens. I am sure they will eventually find people to do it, but it is profoundly admirable of these nurses. I will be doing all I can to help them get other employment.

I had asked if the county Health Department would try to get the three nurses who had resigned to return, now that they had relented and were letting a nurse administer the Covid shots only to adults. His response:

I am pretty sure they would welcome the three back with open arms. But they will not go back because they are just not going to give to kids. I have talked to one of them this evening. As is so common in medicine and nursing now, moral injury is at play. They have put up with so much, this was just a bridge too far. They hired this other nurse in an emergency situation to make sure the place was open. They will find others in the next few days, I am sure. Although finding nurses for anything is very difficult right now. It is just the loss of seasoned employees is not good. And it will cause some chaos if they have to be pull nurses from other jobs.

Additionally, my sister has now informed me that at her health dept in a distant state, one of their nurses have refused to give to under 5. They are not fired or resigned but it has really caused an enormous delay in appointments.

Physicians are hearing that the pharmacists in the entire Publix chain of grocery stores in the SE USA were in such an uproar about it, that Publix will not be offering these vaccines to under 5 kids. The Tampa Bay Times confirmed that Publix won’t give the Covid jab to kids below 5. Good on them.

The “pharmacists refusing” isn’t yet reported the press, but I did track it down with my cousin, a Publix pharmacist in VA. He confirmed the story. Lots of pharmacy pushback because a) many do not want to give it to babies b) many do not feel adequately trained to give to babies. My cousin feels fine giving to toddlers but he too feels about as conflicted as I do that the data does not support it. “I would not give any other drug with no evidence special treatment……why should this vaccine be any different”….

Similarly, in the infectious disease conference yesterday AM (a regular and large Zoom meeting of doctors affiliated with a major teaching hospital), this topic came up. The retired infectious disease doc that has been one of my heroes stood up and had a single slide:

There have been 350 deaths of under 18 with COVID since the beginning of this pandemic – and we know that at a minimum more than half those kids died with COVID not from COVID. 350.

And when I did a VAERS search yesterday – for patients aged 0-17 – 0-3 days post inoculation this is what I found:

Death and Permanent Disability
J&J 1
Moderna 37
Pfizer 237
Total 275

Hospital Admissions or ER visits
J&J 13
Moderna 266
Pfizer 5527
Total 5806

So in the same time we have had a mere 350 (and probably more like half that number) of kids die from COVID – we have killed at least 275 with the vaccines, and sent 5806 to hospital or ER…….And this is moral? This is ethical? Can someone please explain to e how this is not a violation of the Nuremberg Code?

I can readily tell from my interactions with other large academic Zoom conferences and also multiple consults with tertiary docs the past few weeks that the worm is turning. The injuries these things are causing are just no longer going to be hidden. AND WE ARE DOING THIS TO TODDLERS.

I personally looked over the 37 Moderna deaths today on VAERS just to see if these seemed to be placed in the system by docs or confabulators. As a physician, you can usually tell if the medicalese is real. And most of them are signed with names and addresses. They are very likely all genuine. That is all the time I had to go over those 37 – but please realize this system is also likely very under-reported.

And he is CORRECT – this is likely the most immoral thing I have ever seen in my entire career. I will promise you right now – this is going to be a disaster of epic proportions. Biden was very proud yesterday with his statement that “We are the only country giving these shots to under 5 year old kids” The irony in that statement is enormous. My feeling is that is not going to age well – and will likely be a nice campaign ad for the GOP in about 5 months. Mark my words.

America continues to be exceptional. And with Covid, in not very good ways.

.....

comments related to the above:
 

  1. tegnost

    I’m curious if these children’s parents have to sign an EUA absolving the vax makers of any liability?

     
      1. Yves Smith

        You are incorrect, the only version of the Pfizer and Moderna drugs sold in the US is the EUA version.

        Just try calling your pharmacy and asking if/when they will have Comirnaty, the FDA approved version of Pfizer. I guarantee they still have no date.

        EUA drug = waiver has to be signed.

         
          1. IM Doc

            If this is the case, your pediatrician is seriously setting himself up for liability. Despite the fact these were approved in August, they are still using the EUA version. There is no explanation on offer. This is very alarming behavior.

haywood

I believe the Publix issue has to do with their pharmacy staff not being trained to give small children injections rather than a principled stand on injecting young children with the covid vaccine. I imagine that’s probably the case at many large chain pharmacies.

 
  1. Starry Gordon

    Sometimes one thing stands for another. That is, someone may not want to take an overtly principled stand because of the (sometimes) very high social cost of having principles. So one says, “I’m sorry, I just don’t know how to do this.” One must pick one’s battles.

     
  2. IM Doc

    Interestingly, the Publix corporation is refusing to comment on this issue. If it were as simple as that, you would think it would be easy to just say so.

    My cousin the pharmacist did allude to that – see his point b above. It is an entirely different thing to give inoculations to little kids. They squirm a lot and the anatomy is different. So I understand there may be some reluctance to get involved here. But I also got the the distinct impression from my cousin that there was just a lot of concern about safety issues going forward.

    I think I should explain what I mean by “moral injury” and what is going through the minds of these nurses and pharamcists.

    Some months ago, when the inoculations were opened up to the over 6 crowd, we had a vaccine injury incident with a young child that ended up on the front page of the paper. It was severe, and it has ended up being life changing for this young man. It is hard for big city dwellers to understand, but in a small town, we all know one another, we see each other all the time, we are part of each other’s lives.

    The nurse that gave that kid his shot happens to be my patient as well. Words cannot describe the agony this person has been through. They believe they were the one who destroyed this kids’ life. They gave them the shot. There has been absolutely zero indication that anyone but the nurse thinks this, including the family and the patient, but they will likely have months and years of recovery. It is still awful to see them struggling with this. It will likely change their life too.

    Picture the other employees in that office. Now we are giving this to babies. What if this happens to one of the babies I am giving a shot to? Am I going to be able to live with myself…..They say it is rare and these are perfectly safe – but look what just happened to so and so.

    This is moral injury. This is as intense as it gets, but there are so many other examples that have occurred with multiple facets of this pandemic. America does not realize the precarity of their health care work force right now.

    Back when I was a young doctor, when medical ethics and principles still had some sway unlike now, the professors who taught me about medical statistics and research were very keen on harming even one individual with a drug. Our first rule after all is First Do No Harm. And I remember all those years ago, in a medical statistics class of all places being asked to read this short story.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ones_Who_Walk_Away_from_Omelas

    It is ever more important today. The moral question being hammered into our heads by our professors back then is even more important today.

    Just how many people is it worth to save for one child to be killed or maimed? How many make it worth it?

    I have been haunted by this question and by my professors and classmates struggling with this question for weeks now.

 

Trying to Understand

How does the “slide” support IM Doc’s concerns about vaccinating children under 5? Assuming he is correct that there have been 175 US deaths of children under 18 since the start of the pandemic, the VAERS raw data suggests that there have been 275 deaths post-vaccination of people under 18 — but with no causal connection established between the vaccine and those deaths, just a temporal correlation. As IM Doc might put it, we know those 275 deaths occurred “following” the vaccine but we do not know if they were “because” of the vaccine.

Then the slide totals up the VAERS hospital/ER visits of people under 18 within 3 days of the vaccination (5,806), but there is no similar US hospital/ER visits total for COVID infected people under 18 since the pandemic started.

Perhaps IM Doc’s insight into VAERS data is beyond my ken, but I thought VAERS data is notoriously raw and requires a deep dive and many follow-up controlled studies to develop a high degree of confidence in what it means. I also recognize that some VAERS results are so extraordinary to militate stopping things right away. What have those circumstances looked like in the past and how do they compare to this situation?

I agree that the entire analysis is fraught where the under 18 vaccine recipient cannot knowingly consent to the inoculation, the profit motive can deeply distort Big Pharma’s testing protocol and study conclusions, and “politics” can put its thumb on the government scale of what vaccines are useful and to whom should they be administered.

But, again, are IM Doc’s data conclusions and the resignations of the three nurses justified here — based on the data cited? Where is the discussion of the data the vaccine manufacturer supplied?

Maybe the nurses are heroes and IM Doc a truthsayer, but is the data contained in the slide he relies on as compelling as he suggests, and where is the vaccine manufacturer’s data?

 
  1. Yves Smith

    The entire premise of this comment is incorrect. VAERS is “Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System”. Its purpose is to record bad outcomes from vaccines. These reports are initiated both by doctors and patients, that’s why IM Doc looked to see if he could determine what proportion were patient-submitted.

    IM Doc has discussed privately multiple cases of vaccine injuries that he submitted to VAERS that were rejected, including one for a particular type of shingles (a known bad outcome) that the non-medially trained person processing the submission rejected because it wasn’t recognized as an effect (as in IM Doc using a more specific designation got it rejected). Similarly, IM Doc himself suffered a serious vaccine injury that required treatment at a tertiary medical center and took a long time to resolve. The specialist there immediately agreed it was vaccine-induced, said he’d already seen 400 cases like that, and VAERS refused to take them.

     
  2. IM Doc

    First of all, the nurses did not resign based on this dataset. They resigned because they, like many of us, are suffering from moral injury and this was the last straw. I have left an extensive comment elsewhere here today to further elucidate what I mean by that. Maybe you could put yourself in their shoes. I really wish we would all do that more often than we have been.

    The VAERS system is notoriously inaccurate. It is so underwhelming in its ability to perform the function asked of it that it has become a national tragedy. As I have repeatedly stated, the VAERS system is a good way to pick up signals. I have used it for years when the flu shot season begins and through those months to monitor if there is a sudden increase in reports. It is very helpful in this way. Unfortunately, because of massive under-reporting, it is completely unreliable as way to find out exactly what level of VAE we are having. I tend to view what is on VAERS as the basement with the ceiling unknown. As I stated yesterday, it is clear to me that the Moderna death and permanant disablity reports were almost assuredly all valid. They were not written by confabulators. I have spoken with the VAERS employees a few times during this and I get the strong impression that the ridiculous fake ones that are clearly a hoax are removed as soon as that is recognized. Many of these are clearly related to medical problems that are widely known now to be directly related to these vaccines. Young kids do not routinely get DVTs and other things that are reported there. At some point we are going to have to come to terms with the fact that these vaccines are indeed causing some of these issues. I have also reported here in the past and I will report again that the current system is not even close to the manner in which severe issues were dealt with in the past. In previous times, if I as a physician, called in a death or serious complication report to a federal agency, it was taken care of with the utmost of care. That has not happened a single time I have called them during this whole affair. That is another reason I feel these numbers are probably on the low side. I have heard similar stories from peers.

    The vaccine manufacturer’s data? You must be kidding. They have not been forthcoming with anything. You really must not be paying attention. We would ALL love to have the vaccine manufacturer’s data. It would help us answer so many questions. But it will be coming out in a drip drip drip format for the next decades. Nowhere near fast enough to help us answer so many vital questions…..Why are our politicians not demanding it to be released immediately? Why are they not by executive order demanding it be done?

    This new paper came out this month.
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239

    It has among its authors Peter Doshi one of the editors of the BMJ, Robert Kaplan, the Chief Science Officer for AHRQ and Sander Greenland of UCLA – who writes the best textbook about medical epidemiology we have right now. What I am saying – these are not poseurs.

    Because the federal agencies and the pharma companies are refusing to collate and release data, these researchers did the backyard approach through other means. It is a fascinating piece of work. What they found is that more patients were suffering excess severe adverse events with both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines than were being saved from hospital admissions. You heard that correctly – more people had severe side effects than people being kept out of the hospital. The numbers were particularly tragic for Pfizer. The authors absolutely admitted that this was the best they could do with the available numbers. BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT AGENCIES and BIG PHARMA HAVE REFUSED TO RELEASE DATASETS. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY TRAGIC IN ITS UNETHICAL BEHAVIOR. They ended the study with a plea to release the data and given their findings, the urgent need to break out the risk/benefit ratios for different demographics. ie do old people have a satisfactory risk profile while young people do not, etc etc etc. I will reiterate – none of these authors are slouches. They are in the top tier of folks in their fields. This has to be taken seriously.

    We all know these vaccines do nothing to prevent transmission or infection. That is by now I hope evident to all. Therefore, the “killing grandma” excuse no longer has merit. If anything, the vaccinated seem more cocky and inclined for risky behavior. No, the only thing right now on the table is the individual risk mitigation for each individual child. And the numbers just do not add up for the BENEFIT of these which studies tell us is basically zero to take on the risk. This is especially so in this 0-5 age group. This is a critical time for the development of the thymus and T-cell immunity and we just do not know what these novel agents are going to do for sure.

    It gets back to the question I placed in another comment today – that has been haunting me. How many people need to be saved for one child to bear death or disablement? It is a profoundly important question and one I have been wrestling with for weeks. We are not going to find that answer in medical statistics or databases. We are going to find that in our own hearts. And we better quickly start the process of examining our own hearts – this may rapidly become the issue of our time.

    And yes Yves has revealed my own struggle this past year. I have been not inclined to discuss it because I did not want that to really influence anyone’s personal decision. I do believe the time has come to be forthcoming. My medical issues with the vaccine are on a continuum. It affects most people very mildly but some have a severe problem. I ended up with the more severe issue, but not the worst. This has been going on for more than a year. I did end up with one of my old students as my physician specialist at a major center. And he did tell me he has seen many people with this problem all over that continuum. The vast majority of them were mild unlike mine. Under his care, I am doing better but this has not been without issues this year. Just in the past month, I have begun to feel normal again. Fortunately, unlike so many others who have had a vaccine problem, I have not been gaslit. But my physician did share with me the same frustration I have with VAERS and our agencies. They just do not seem to be too interested in problems.

    It is very clear to me that the dam is breaking in regards to the promises and the perils of these vaccines. I watched the questioning of Dr. Birx in the US House yesterday long enough to realize that the evasion and deception and misdirecting are soon to be over. I heard with horror as she described why they so missed the fact that these vaccines were not sterilizing because they had “hope” in them. We are all about to find out that hope should never be the sole determinant in any of these things. We “hoped” they worked – so we went about coercing vast swaths, ruining people’s lives and jobs, because we “hoped” they worked. This is absolutely not the medicine I know and love. I am so sorry that my profession is behaving like this. I would have never dreamed it possible.

  1. Pediatrician4U

    Hi! Pediatrician of 25 years here. I’m sympathetic to the political leaning of this site, and had to jump in and say that the idea that there is mass hesitation or that “the worm in turning” in the medical community against protecting our children from covid with these vacccines is not correct. I’m willing to say “anything is possible” wrt the specific experiences shared here by the author of this post, but the idea that there is a movement among *medical professionals* (especially ID docs!!) against toddler vaccination against Covid is frankly laughable and makes me give a bit of side eye to the rest of this post. I had to share this reality check.

    I work in a suburban purple area and of course among families, there is some vaccine hesitancy, but the medical professionals including all of the injection nurses are are strongly in favor of these vaccines and their potential to save lives. No one is resigning- we are *thrilled*. Covid has been the #4 or #5 cause of death this last winter among the ages 1-5 yr. It has killed more/mo than RSV or Influenza ever does. Your pediatric nurses and doctors are very happy that we finally have the chance to reduce this impact.

    My professional recommendation is for god sake’s, please protect your child from Covid. Advocate for better public policy wrt ventilation and masking, etc, but PLEASE also take this simple and safe step.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      I don’t mean to come down hard on you, but just because a situation is bad (having toddlers get Covid) does not mean a particular proposed remedy is good. But your comment comes off as if your need to be able to Do Something has blunted your critical thinking.

      First, IM Doc spent 15 years on an Institutional Review Board, five years as its chair, and so he is intimately familiar with the drug approval process and the statistical reviews. He is adamant that these vaccines are being used when previous vaccines, like the one for swine flu, were pulled off the market at a far lower level of deaths and complications.

      Second, it appears you completely ignored the information from the infectious disease specialist. With the 0-5 injection only having just started, meaning comparatively few toddlers have actually gotten the shots, they have killed more 0-5 year old children than Covid has over the entire history of the disease! How can you be in favor of them in the face of data like this?

      Third, I expect IM Doc to address this himself, but I am highly confident his data set is bigger than yours. He was formerly a professor at a major teaching hospital, participates religiously in their various Zoom grand rounds and other information-sharing, as well as keeps up with his students, many of whom are at tertiary medical centers, and can give readings on what is happening there.

      Fourth, if nothing else, you are ignoring Publix’s refusal to administer the vaccines to 0-5 year olds. They have over 1000 pharmacies. They can’t get enough of their staff to administer the shots to offer them.

      Fifth, your geolocation belies your claim to live in a purple area. 4 of the services say you are in San Francisco. One says Boulder Creek, which is in the general area of Silicon Valley and blue. The last is Pittsburgh, where the city is a bit less blue but still rated as liberal, than Allegheny County.

       
    2. IM Doc

      There have been interesting further developments in the story since the last writing. They thought they were going to have an enormous demand for baby vaxxes – but apparently the appts were only filled for one day and a few into the next. Now it is crickets. In other words, the parents seem to be deciding en masse to give this a rest for now. It seems very likely that the nurses will have their jobs back, because there will be no baby vaxxes in this county – or just sparingly, so that the supervisors can handle the babies if needed.

      I am hearing similar reports all over the country – there is very little demand in the first week other than the very large cities.

      This comment pretty much encompasses the talking points of the CDC. These issues the commenter brings up are similar in tone to how the CDC is describing the situation. Interestingly, there are entire states where there has just been a handful of kids in the hospital with COVID for the whole time. There are many towns like my own where we have never had a kid hospitalized through this whole time. Certainly not minimizing this – but I think we have to take a cold hard look at data as we were trained to do and really assess risk benefit ratios.

      I am not going to write this all out – Vinay Prasad MD has 2 videos that I think spell it all out. I have but minor quibbles with what he says. Here is the thing – Do I agree with everything Dr. Prasad says? Oh no. But I am a student of science enough to know that he is doing these expositions from a good place – and he happens to be very congruent with my own reading of the literature. Unlike the CDC. The horror of horrors was earlier this year in the Supreme Court when a Justice used obvious bad data and misinformation to vote to maintain the vaccine mandate. This is an example of where bad science and repeating misinformed talking points can cause real harm.

      Dr. Prasad discusses the obvious lies and distortions meant to scare parents into vaccinating kids – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykwMAur0RTM And here in this video he goes through the evidence of benefits and risks to these kids from 0-5 for vaccination – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJnOn6Phzfo. As a member of an IRB for 20 years – and a journal club attender for more than 30 – I can find nothing in these analyses that is invalid. If you are so intent on vaccinating the 0-5 – and so sure the benefits would outpace the risks – I would love to hear why.

      I would ask your commenter another very important question – Why is it that countries all over Western Europe have had their medical regulating agencies say NO? – in a big way? Would this commenter engage with me – and go down the list of the FDA committee members that made this decision – and see how many of them may be corrupted with other arrangements with Big Pharma? – Is even one of them a truly independent adviser without conflicts of interest?

      With regard to the worm turning and doctors not being concerned about this……a few things indicate that I am not just making shit up as implied here –

      This is from Marty Makary MD – MPH – of Johns Hopkins Univ

      This is his tweet in response to one of the above Dr. Prasad videos –

      https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1539616084139151360

      There it is in black and white – he is guessing fully 40% of peds in rural areas will not be recommending this to their patients. That includes our pediatrician – who was vehemently telling us not to vaccinate our own kids – who are older than 5 months ago. And he was making very good sense when doing so.

      And then this letter came out this weekend from a group of doctors including both Dr. Prasad and Dr. Makary – and as you can tell there are multiple signatories who are peds or ID docs urging a relook or reframing of the entire vaccination of babies scheme. I cannot say I agree with everything in that letter – but I certainly agree with the vaccination issue.

      https://www.urgencyofnormal.com

      I am not just making this “worm turning” up. There are literally thousands of American docs who have signed this letter. When I looked through just the first few dozen – there were multiple peds and ID docs. ID docs are indeed questioning this issue, regardless of what you say. I spoke with one personally on Friday.

      You reference the ID doctor that made the comment in that conference. Please note – he is a dean of Infectious Disease in this country. As a young man, I saw him take up the armor when similar things were happening during the AIDS pandemic. He tolerated no bullshit from the CDC or Fauci or manipulating data. That is an understatement. He tolerated no bullshit from anyone when it came to patient care. What he did the other day – I would have expected nothing less. He is one of this country’s legends. But a key word is RETIRED. He has freedom. He does not need to be worried about being fired or punished. That is the problem. We cannot have a rational discussion about these issues other than the CDC talking points. Thank you for kindly reiterating them. It is now time for my generation to pick up the armor. As I discuss above – the uptake of the vaccines is apparently way lower than expected in many places in this country and that is because of the abysmal performance of our federal agencies. The trust in them in this country is cratered and will likely take years/generations to fix. This latest turn with the baby vaxx is no different. Unless we immediately began to demand complete transparency and a cessation of the propaganda, our entire profession and the health of this nation are at grave risk.

       
  2. Pediatrician4U

    I didn’t realize posting an opinion to the comment thread that didn’t fall in line with the group majority would result in an attempt at doxxing. I didn’t think that’s what this site was about.

    I think the author of the post will agree that your assertion in point #2 above is incorrect even if you take that slide at face value. According to that slide, how many children age 6mo-4yr have supposedly died of covid vaccine? The one we just started providing last week? The only children in that age range that have received the vaccine so far are the ones in the trials. Are you seriously suggesting that more children 6mo-4yr died during the trials (btw– NONE did), than have died of Covid disease itself?

    I don’t usually use confrontational language like this, but I’m reacting to the tone of your response. I’m a pediatrician who considers themself quite anti-Big Pharma. I counsel honey over Robitussin. I dissuade families for falling for Pharma marketing of “toddler formula” (totally unnecessary btw– it’s just the drug companies creating and marketing a made up product you don’t need). But being against Big Pharma doesn’t mean I never prescribe a medication. Or recommend a safe life-saving vaccine.

    Fwiw, i stand by my characterization of the town I work in (though it is literally the least relevant part of my comment- just some background).

     
    1. flora

      You may be all you claim to be. Still, something seems off to me, something sort of ad-speak sounding about your comments. Maybe it’s just enthusiasm. But it does sound like a sales pitch. Probably just my quirky parsing of what I read. I’m not a medico.

       
    2. Yves Smith

      First, it is false and an attack on this site to say you were doxxed. We did not publish your name, your phone number, your home or work address, or your e-mail. We found three different places from which you might have made your comment. Even if we take the one that is the best fit with your claim of purple (Pittsburgh), it has 4,900 doctors. The ratio of pediatricians to doctors nationally is about 6.5%. Applying that to 4,900 says there are over 300 pediatricians in Pittsburgh (and that is assuming you actually were in the city and not practicing somewhere else in the county). In other words, it is impossible to identify you personally based on what we said.

      The comment about you being in a purple voting area was not “some background”. It was to try to undermine IM Doc’s using his experience in his very blue and very vaxxed county as not representative by presenting yourself as being in a less Democrat leaning area that was nevertheless toddler-vaccine-gung ho. So that was part of your argument, not ancillary information.

      IM Doc in his reply to your earlier comment provides additional substantiating information that shows that many doctors and parents are skeptical of using this vaccine on toddlers.

      And as for your effort to critique a slide from a former and highly esteemed Dean of Infectious Diseases, you appear to have a reading comprehension issue. The information came from the VAERS database. VAERS does not include clinical trial results, it is to report adverse results on vaccines in use. IM Doc said he even checked the 37 death and permanent disability reports about Moderna to see if they looked to be MD submitted or from patients. Their doctor-like use of medical terminology and writing style strongly suggested they were provided by doctors.

      These deaths and other bad outcome are in the 0-17 age group in VAERS, which given that there are unlikely to be any adverse reports in the database from the shots that started last week, this effectively means it covers next older aged cohort, 5-17. You could look it up on VAERS yourself. They are almost certainly less fragile than toddlers. There’s no reason to expect better outcomes on average and good reason to worry about worse ones.

      And the number of vaxxed 5 to 17 year olds is also likely to be lower than total toddlers exposed to Covid since it spread in a big way in the US (say early March 2020; by contrast, the Pfizer vaccine was not authorized for use on 12-15 year olds until late August 2021 and for 5 to 11 year olds, until the very end of October 2021. So we have less than a year with these vaccines for these populations, versus two years plus of Covid risk for toddlers. That means the time/population corrected level of bad outcomes is even worse than the simple comparison suggests.

      I strongly suggest you reconsider your vaccine-for-babies enthusiasm.

       
    3. IM Doc

      I think the ID doc’s point is that we have had less than 350 kids who have lost their lives to this virus and we have had the 250 deaths reported in VAERS at the same time in a much shorter time. No they were not 0-4 they were the older kids. He never suggested this was babies. Nor did I.

      I tend to be on the very safe side with babies. So did the FDA in the past. See the story of Frances Kelsey MD to understand what I mean. How many pharma dollars did Dr. Kelsey have coming in on the side when she stood up for the kids of America? How many current members of the committee in the FDA that approved this are free of conflict? Should not the American people and certainly our kids have the assurance for this grave a matter that those in charge are free of conflicts?

      As I stated, I looked through some of this deaths and they appear to be genuine. This is the next closest age range to whom we are dealing with here. There clearly are a lot more deaths than I am comfortable with. And have never seen any IRB be comfortable with that trade off.

      And this safety is unresolved…..I will say once more that we had a severe safety issue in my community that all knew about. Never addressed in any way by the authorities and massive distrust was the result. And now they want us to vaxx babies with a minimal at best efficacy with that risk signal out there. Unfortunately, these are babies, and repeatedly saying the vaccines are 100% safe etc is just not going to cut it with the parents of America. The trust has been severely affected. I deal with this every day of my life like no other time in my career.

      As I have stated before, it is leading to my own moral injury.

      I would like for him and any others to listen to that Dr. Prasad video and point out their differences. That is where the debate should be had.

      That is the issue at hand.

Kevin Smith MD

re: “…absolute risk of serious AE from mRNA vaccines exceeds the absolute risk reduction of serious covid-19 infection.”

I’ve run lots of clinical trials, and helped write some protocols: …. so, depending on the definition of “serious adverse event” {SAE}, I might prefer to have the SAE than to be so sick with covid that I wind up in hospital.

I think the headline would be likely to mislead the casual reader.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I feel this is one of the most important studies put out in the past year. The more I have thought about it, it may be one of the most seminal papers in my career over decades.

    They are fairly clear what their definition of sae is and not sure I would feel the same way as you do.

    This paper is a direct result of the dissembling and obfuscation of Big Pharma and our government agencies. The authors used multiple back door approaches with multiple data sets to come up with these results because the real genuine data that would answer the questions remains under lock and key. It is an absolutely fascinating study on how one may get answers in more than one way. Indeed, this will be required reading for students on my IM rotation from now on. It is important in two ways. The fascinating ways they deduce this data and a warning for the future about trying to subvert science and hide data. We cannot allow this to go on.

    And these are not just Twitter bot writers. They are quite frankly the shining lights of medical data studies and epidemiology. Sander Greenland writes THE medical epidemiology book used by medical students everywhere. His book sits proudly on my shelf. Doshi is the editor of BMJ, the last of the Big 4 with its reputation not in tatters, and Kaplan is the CSO of the AHQR. These people live and breathe math in medicine and how to do approrpriate trials. They are our supreme experts in this realm. This simply cannot be ignored. And as someone who has spent decades on IRBs and journal clubs, I am just blown away by this work.

    And the basic end result is that they found many more had to endure side effects from the vaccines than the vaccines prevented hospital stays. Damning. And it was much worse for Pfizer. Furthermore, as they state, and is clear from careful reading, they very likely are very much understating the ratios and the effect is likely much larger. But they cannot know for sure. Because the raw data has not been released from either Pharma or our govt agencies. As far back as my original post more than a year ago on the vaxxes, I stated that was a HUGE problem with the initial studies. Something did not seem right and the only way to find out is the raw data. And here we are 18 months later and not a step further down the road. We now have lived experience that they are a huge disappointment in containing infection despite the “triumph” framing, and we have all kinds of red alert signals about side effects. And still no data. These vaccines have been coerced on our population. Our leaders must step up to the plate and demand the data to be released. There is no other way to get to the bottom of this. The authors of this study have laid out in the best possible way what we can know and they too are begging for the data to be released. They assert this is critical because the raw data can lead us safely to risk stratification for vaccine administration for demographics, something we cannot do even remotely now. We are blasting them into everyone.

    Where is the data? How is withholding data consistent with science? Given all that is happening around us, why is this being allowed to happen? Why are we allowing these vaxxes in our kids without the most full picture of benefits and risks freely available to the parents and their doctors? Why is there not an Act of Congress or Executive Order to do so?

    This paper, by these experts who cannot be ignored, is a blatant indictment of our current situation. And given the reputations of these authors, it is an indication of the shift happening in my profession about these therapies. We cannot allow our current status to continue on.

  1. Joe Well

    If they are minimizing adverse events, why was there such a freakout about the very small risks of cardiac problems from the J&J and Astrazeneca vaccines?

     
    1. square coats

      Indeed. The mrna vaccines have seemed stinkier and stinkier to me (not because of mrna technology per se but because of just about everything else).

       
      1. JBird4049

        I am reminded of the company that made thalidomide, Grünenthal, which was founded by Nazi doctors who had prisoners for their often lethal tests during the war. The company not only quickly knew about the problem, they suppressed the information and kept encouraging thalidomide’s use worldwide because of the profits they were making. I have forgotten anything more about the mess except that the FDA prevented its use in the United States and IIRC the legal prosecutions in Germany ended in very lenient settlements.

        Considering the past, it would be unsurprising to me if American officials were making bank off of the mRNA vaccines. I wonder what the people in the 1960s FDA would think about today’s medical establishment including its regulators.

         
        1. IM Doc

          This is a story I tell every year to my students in medical history. Her name was Frances Kelsey, MD. She was the FDA official who through sheer will cut through all the hubris and crap and greatly minimized thalidomide in the USA. We all owe this women a debt of gratitude. Her name is largely forgotten today but not by my students. She is one of the greats and one to be emulated.

          https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/08/430709628/frances-kelsey-fda-officer-who-blocked-thalidomide-dies-at-101

          The NIH makes quite a bit of royalty from the Moderna vaccines. It is unclear to me how much Fauci and his top lieutenants are personally making – the news is a bit opaque – but I am certain if we have a GOP wave this year, that is all going to come out in the wash.

...
Not covid related, but since I've posted his comments related to his political sea change, here's another:

IM Doc

Actually no they are not rolling their eyes. I happen to be of the camp that this should be between a woman and their doctor. But I personally am pro life. This was one of the first indications that I was no longer welcome in the Dem Party. I was told to my face in front of others on multiple occasions that I was a horrible misogynistic mansplainer. Please note, I never one time have ever expressed a desire to get in the way of someone else who has different opinions to have an abortion. But because I expressed an opinion that I MYSELF would never be ok with a child I sired to agree to an abortion, I am worthy to be damned to hell. Now, I just never bring it up. I wonder how many like me out here who used to be reliable Dem voters are out here. I think it may be substantial. But it is hard to hear them through all the screaming.

You leftists can have it. The authoritianism in your actions is revolting to the vast majority of us in the middle. It is not just abortion. It is the entire framework of how you relate to the world. It is a form of authoritarian Manichaeism that is getting quite concerning. It is also fascinating to watch the many ways it is imploding on itself just as it has so many times throughout history. Your comment above, stripped of any nuance about this very complex issue, is a textbook example of Manichaeism. It does nothing but harden those of us who have struggled with this issue all our life that the Dem Party and its leftist core are not our home. The sad thing you cannot see through all the righteous screaming is that much of your base – the Latinos and the African Americans – have similar feelings that I do. I think November may be a surprise for you.

I am still struggling with the fact that my side of the spectrum has become far more authoritarian than the other side ever dreamed. It is unsettling. Even more so is the fact that the partisans on what I used to call my side cannot even seem to see the problem. The huge number of what I call New Deal Dems out here in the heartland who I have contact with regularly feel the same way I do. We need to start working on issues of the common working people and put the identity politics aside. They are absolutely toxic to a functional society.


thoughtfulperson

“By abolishing longstanding legal protections, the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade serves American families poorly, putting their health, safety, finances, and futures at risk. In view of these predictable consequences, the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine strongly condemn the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision.”

Not every day the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine condemn a decision of the SCOTUS.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2208288

 
  1. IM Doc

    I write this as a medical historian.

    There may be very well thought out reasons why this ruling is bad. I am struggling with it myself. However, I know for sure that I will not depend on the NEJM for help with this issue. They do not have a very good record when you look at the big arc of history. They were avid supporters of things like eugenics, forced sterilization, and frontal lobotomies in the past among many others. These editorials are written not by actual practicing physicians but by the most ivory tower detached academics who would not know how to handle a patient in any way. The same is true today.

    The NEJM should be used as a gauge of how elite physicians are feeling at the time it was written. And not of how something should be viewed going forward. Their opinions often appear quite embarrassing to the medical profession many years later. I often use these kind of editorials from decades ago for student readings. It shows us how the “cool kids” thought at the time and how ridiculous they sound now. It does not even have to be decades. Their editorial pronouncement that the COVID vaccines were a “triumph” 18 months ago seems a bit off today.

Jason Boxman

The column on Paxlovid being a failure on its own terms, with the terms of the trial hidden from public view, and approved in secret by the FDA, might get buried by all the justified Roe coverage, but this too is absolutely beyond scandalous. Social murder. (Peddling this drug to the exclusion of funding development for ones that might work, or do work today.)

An updated, more recent analysis from 1,153 patients (out of a possible 2,246 patients) showed a lackluster, non-significant 51 percent relative risk reduction. A sub-group analysis of 721 vaccinated adults with at least one risk factor for progression to severe Covid-19 showed a non-significant relative risk reduction in hospitalization or death (treatment arm: 3/361; placebo: 7/360).

But unlike Biogen, I couldn’t even find any online record of a meeting by Cavazzoni justifying the protocol amendment for Paxlovid, let alone an adequate one. Pfizer would have had to provide detailed reasoning in its protocol amendment and the FDA kept those requests and changes a secret. It’s just another example of the FDA’s total lack of transparency.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/biden-pays-big-bucks-for-pfizers-latest-flop/

It’s too bad the author is all-in on herd immunity, but the information on Paxlovid is nonetheless damning.

This country is in terminal decline.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Over the past month, I have had some experience with Paxlovid. Enough to confidently make a few observations. We have been using it for patients who are higher risk because of age and medical issues, and only those who are not on contraindicated meds. So a fairly substantial number.

    1) It really does not work all that well. Indeed, many patients do not feel better at all after several days. They often feel much worse. I have had multiple couples and families where one spouse demands Paxlovid and the other demands VitI/flovoxamine/some kind of steroid/NSAID – and invariably without exception – the second group does better much quicker. This is observational, case record level data – but is entirely consistent with what I have seen before in the pandemic. Again, the fact that all of these other agents have not been studied in any kind of trials but what are known as “show trials” IOW meant to fail – is an indictment against our medical agencies. This will not age well.

    2) I have now had a handful of these “rebound” cases. Without exception, they are significantly more ill on the rebound – and this is 10 or so days later. There was an initial burst of discussion about this but again, now, as usual, crickets. I have no idea what this rebound phenomenon means. But it is a very real phenomenon.

    3) It is very expensive. 700 dollars or so per course. It is being covered and paid for – but SOMEONE is paying for it. And again, the paltry effect does not seem to be worth the billions being spent.

    4) Lots of dropouts. It makes many patients feel much worse in so many ways within just a day or two that they just stop taking it. I have some very serious qualms about this given the fact that this is absolutely what we are NOT supposed to do with antivirals. This kind of behavior is what leads HIV patients to become resistant to HAART. But there is a significant minority of patients who just feel so much worse they quit taking it.

    5) There is absolutely no help with reinfection guidance from our agencies. I have so many patients now who are having 3 or even 4 reinfections that it is becoming hard to keep up with the numbers. Invariably, they are sicker each time. Majority are certainly not hospital level – but we are headed that direction if this keeps up. And so many of these people have already had a course of paxlovid on the last reinfection that may have just been 4 weeks ago. ( I view this as a completely different issue than the rebound – that very clearly happens within 6-10 days). No guidance on this at all – do we give them a second round of paxlovid this close after the first round? What is that going to do with viral resistance? What do you want me to tell these many patients who have had both vaccine and paxlovid failure – they are becoming very angry…..I am getting so used to being the whipping boy for the patient’s frustration. And I really cannot fault them – they have very valid points.

    6) Getting back to patient anger and hypocrisy. I have just gotten to passively shaking my head when I see the usual tweet from one of our politicians – So and So, I have my 3rd bout of COVID – but thank God I have been vaccinated and boosted, you should be too. Things would be so much worse for me now, but because of my vaccination status, I have very mild symptoms. Nevertheless, the PAXLOVID I am on will help me too.

    DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND YOU ARE COMPLETELY HYPOCRITICAL in THIS STATEMENT – This drug is only to be given to those who are high risk. That does not include Justin Trudeau, Pete Buttigieg or Jen Psaki, Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris among many others. All of whom have made variations of the above statement. (I do not include Dr. Fauci in this list because of his age he actually is high risk). First of all, if you are legitamately getting Paxlovid – your symptoms must be much worse than you are letting on. Secondly, this is very very poor modeling behavior. You as politicians should be modeling the CORRECT thing for the world. What you are doing is undermining the entire project.

    There are days I want to just give up.

marym

The anti-abortion movement, including electing anti-abortion candidates and appointing an anti-Roe judiciary, has been going on for 50 years. The participants in that movement are responsible for this decision. They don’t get to blame it on proponents of vaccine mandates, whatever else one may think about that issue.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I am so sorry – but one of the most important aspects of medical ethics is that the principle in question must be universal in its usage and understanding. A principle of medical ethics simply cannot be applied to one issue and then not another. The resulting moral chaos will become destructive very quickly. This is just the way it is.

    One side can simply not vehemently use medical ethics principles on its pet issues and then ignore the same on those they oppose.. That would make them moral morons as is being evidenced today. The hypocrisy from the very same politicians is just overwhelming. They look life fools.

    I do not think anyone is blaming the loss of Roe vs Wade on the proponents of vaccine mandates. I think they are rightly pointing out that the hypocrisy on display is revealing to all involved that ignoring ethical principles in critical medical issues in our society that they have screamed from the rooftops for years really makes them look like zeroes. I will assume from this day forward that someone like Elizabeth Warren is a moral zero until proven otherwise. She clearly is unable to rationally parse through an ethical dilemma. It pains me to say that. But she has been proving this with so many other issues over the past two years that this seems like nothing. The same can be said for many others I used to respect.

    Since both abortion and vaccine mandates of a non-proven, no-safety record substance are both medical issues – both must be evaluated on medical ethics in exactly the same way. You simply do not get to be ethical on one issue and not the other. Unless, of course, your name is Joseph Mengele or many others throughout history who have – and we all know the consequences.

    This is absolutely fundamental to medical ethics.

    The issue of “my body, my choice” goes right to the heart of medical autonomy – one of the most important medical ethics principles there are. It is absolutely relevant to abortion – but equally relevant to the mandate issue as well. Again – the fact that this has rightly been used for generations now for the abortion issue – and then tossed out the window in a heart beat for the other side speaks volumes in the hypocrisy for the side doing it.

    The big bugaboo with medical autonomy in the hundreds of debates I have been witness to over my life – is what about the autonomy of the fetus?…..When does a fetus have autonomy?

    The other issue that gets less press but is equally important – is “this decision is between a woman and her doctor”. That issue goes right to the heart of medical privacy – another ethical issue that was tossed right out the window by the mandate crowd – the same ones who have been chanting it for decades. I would love for you to come and talk to a patient of mine – a young woman with a clotting disorder – who came to me to discuss her options with the vaccine mandate at her work. Together ( a woman and her doctor) came up with the decision that these were not a good idea for her. I filled out a medical exemption. It was summarily dismissed by the employer. She got the shot – and 2 days later had a massive PE. Thankfully did not die. But the same people who are now screaming about this issue with abortion were all over her facebook feed demonizing her for even thinking about getting a medical exemption – she showed it to me – tears in eyes – “these people are my friends.”

    Sorry – there is no other way. Medical ethics are non-negotiable. They are not for some issues and not others. Failure to understand this is why we are in the mess we are today. The few medical ethicists that came out to support these mandates were simply unable to make their case. And as is always the case with the truth – it will eventually come to light.

    I struggle with the abortion issue mightily. I read posts like the one above – and I get it. I have had decades as an instructor in medical ethics to go over this in my mind and soul. But what has happened in the past year has demonstrated to many people that the moral and ethical fiber in this country is very thin indeed.

Another political one...

IM Doc

About the foreign trip.

I had the Biden remarks to NATO on TV this AM – and it was all about NATO and Russia.

And then something happened that just rocked me. As in I will never trust Biden again – nor basically his party until the clean sweep is done. During the NATO Russia speech in front of the leaders of the free world, Biden took a fairly deep swipe at the US Supreme Court and them being against human rights and specifically mentioned Roe v Wade.

What the hell does Roe v Wade have to do with NATO or Russia? Does anyone else seem to see the supreme irony in comments like that spoken to the European nations – who almost to the one have MORE RESTRICTIVE abortion laws than many of our US States.

Call me old-fashioned. But I do remember a time when it was absolutely looked down upon for any American politician to go onto foreign soil and talk down to the world any other politician or any other political instituion. And yet – he goes onto foreign soil and makes this kind of comment about the US Supreme Court, and equal branch of government – at least the last time I checked.

Totally classless and totally disrespectful of centuries of precedent.

I, an officially former Dem, am rapidly becoming a member of the “I will crawl over hot coals” to vote these people out. They are not worthy of the position. Furthermore, my wife especially, has begun to make donations to the other side – she is so horrified. It is also official – after more than 5 decades between us being Dems, we are no longer. Our official party registration was changed on the first day it was able to be done in our county today. And my God, the place was packed with people doing the same thing.

I am so very disappointed with my party. I cannot believe what they have become.



temporaryreality: (Default)
April and May 2022 Naked Capitalism posts and comments featuring IM Doc.

Since Covid is winding down as a theme there, I'll be selecting IM Doc's comments for those that relate to medical issues. The first one, though, is quasi-medical but just too good to pass up:

IM Doc
One thing is for sure. I would be very very careful about medical evaluations done over TV or magazines. There is nothing like seeing and feeling the patient’s body and organs in your own hands and eyes. There are exceptions to this. Diagnosis of dementia and other neuro problems is often patently obvious just by watching behavior on TV. For example, Joe Biden – his neurologic issues are apparent for any trained eye to see – the marked change from baseline, the irrational bursts of anger, the gradually worsening and severe gait disturbance ( that particular type is very associated with dementia), the slouch when he walks, the way he holds his face/eyes, the confusion, getting lost in speech, having his family or handlers constantly cover for him, etc . A bunch of disparate symptoms that are behavioral and obvious are apparent. If this type of patient showed up in my office, after a few minutes of observation, I would order a neuro-cognitive evaluation instantly.


  1. IM Doc

    Impressive.

    A paper written by Dr. Fauci and 2 others. Dr. Fauci himself is listed as the corresponding writer.

    As I have repeatedly stated for the past 2 years, when one looks at any of the standard textbooks of Infectious Disease, this “lack of herd immunity” concept is front and center in the chapters on Coronaviruses and even other respiratory virus families. This is nothing new. This has been settled science for decades.

    Coronaviruses, influenza viruses, and other respiratory viruses simply do not behave with herd immunity the way others such as measles and smallpox do. They just do not. It is not in their nature. Those of us who have taken care of flu patients all of our lives know this. It has been just horrible watching this complete misconception that COVID has herd immunity being preached by our media for the past two years. And both sides have been doing it. One side is all about vaccine immunity – the other is natural immunity. HINT – Vaccine immunity will not last but neither will natural immunity. There is debate about which would last longer, but both sides have been completely out of line professing this for the past 2 years. Anyone who had bothered to read a word in these textbooks would have easily been able to predict the failure of the vaccines to decrease transmission and infection. But they also should know that infection based immunity will not last either.

    WHAT WILL HAPPEN – is as time goes on, we will build up enough immunity to decrease our immune response to future variants in the deep hard drives of our immune system. That will allow us to get sick ( and get sick we will ) but will not be sending us to the hospital. But again, we will still be passing this around for the rest of humanity. And each of us will get sick repeatedly as we do so. But eventually it will be just an illness that we live with just like Coronavirus OC43. The issue is getting from where we are now to that point. OC43 was almost assuredly birthed into the world in the 1890s as the Great Russian Flu. And here we are 130 years later – and it is still being passed around to every human on this planet. And HINT – it took 12-15 waves in the 1890s during the acute pandemic phase for this to calm down. We have now had 3 waves with COVID. Wuhan, Delta, and Omicron. And 2nd HINT – the succeeding waves in the 1890s were variable in their virulence – It was not a step wise progression down in virulence.

    I am so sorry to be be the bearer of bad news. Since OC43 was likely the only other wide Coronavirus pandemic in living memory, it is what we have to compare COVID to. If the comparison holds up, we still have quite a ways to go and there will likely be multiple future waves and variants – some easy and some not so fun. Introducing a non-sterilizing vaccine into this mix is one of the most unique medical experiments ever conducted. I am going to be very interested to see how this all works out.

    The other critically important outstanding issue about SARS COV2 that is still outstanding is the exact damage it is able to convey on its victims and the penetrance of this damage in the population. This is a very important issue – and is COVID specific. We just do not know yet.

    I do not know about you, I find it almost alarming that 2 years into this, Dr. Fauci is writing a paper about an assertion that should have been known by our authorities on DAY 1. Believe me – this was being discussed in Infectious Disease and other medical conferences from Day 1. And he is writing this as if this is a new thing. Downright alarming.

Questa Nota

Hunter Biden Laptop is the biggest scandal since Watergate.
The walls are closing in.
The real crime is the coverup.
Did I forget to mention that the walls are closing in?

Don’t you miss Carl Bernstein? /s

 
  1. Yves Smith

    This is slow and grinding too. Apparently what is on it is super bad, and now we also have the press willing to take up his China connections too, which also appear to have some lucre attached.

    Gossip from IM Doc, from an admitted R source:

    2 interesting patient conversations this week. One was a different retired US SEN than before. GOP. Informed me he expects Biden to be impeached before the end of the year or at a minimum to suffer grave political consequences. “The Dems will have to – once the contents of that hard drive start coming out….I am an old cynical burned out guy – but what I am hearing is even making me want to vomit.”

In this post, Lambert embeds his usual graphs and whatnot, and quotes IM Doc on the counting of patients in official figures. I don't feel like trying to extract the context and the quote, so if you're interested, please just click through: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/04/200pm-water-cooler-4-7-2022.html.

  1. Lou Anton

    This country, man. We got an incredible demonstration of universal healthcare for a single issue (thanks Trump, for real), and now we yank it back and send people to Painville.

    We get these small glimpses of good things, only to have them choked off ASAP. It’s the one bipartisan thing. Don’t let the proles have even a modicum of prosperity.

     
    1. IM Doc

      I have had multiple COVID positive patients this week – all fairly ill. All vaccinated. Many boosted.

      Although none of them have been critically ill, I did believe that 8 of them met the threshold for Paxlovid. Not one of them could actually obtain the meds. We either had a pre-authorization from hell, rationing pharmacies with their own criteria for the drug, or inability to afford the outrageous co-pay.

      Alas, back to the old standbys of IVM, Zinc, Fluvoxamine and inhaled steroids. They do seem to work much better than the Paxlovid anyway. Although even the inhaled steroids are now specifically NOT being paid for by some insurance companies for COVID. They too are very expensive and there is a sudden critical shortage of at least one of them.

      What a tragic joke this has become.

      People should really read this whole tweet. It is exactly what patients go through all the time when COVID happens in a big corporate medical system. I thank God daily that I am no longer part of those monstrosities. The harrowing part of his tweet was how much it was going to cost him to get the monoclonal antibodies. I just see flashes in my mind of all my patients who are already struggling to make ends meet. And the wait because the center was “crazy busy” all of a sudden. This has all the potential to be a tragedy of extreme proportions. I do not have a good feeling about all of this.

IM Doc has an entire large-ish very vaxxed family (3-4 shots each) that went to the Star Trek convention and all now have Covid. He adds that George Takei had been putting up hateful tweets about the unvaxed and he was at this convention:

Here's Yves, being dense ("They're not wearing masks!") rather than astute ("They're vaccinated!) - but anyway...

Yves Smith

IM Doc reports that all of his Covid patients in the last month were vaxxed, the majority triple or four times vaxxed.

The ones who are not getting Covid are masked service workers. The ones who are getting Covid are people who are going to restaurants, parties, conventions, weddings, and not wearing masks.

People who get Covid are now overwhelmingly the vaxxed who have abandoned Covid precautions.

So your position is illogical. You should be avoiding venues where people go unmasked, period, unless your exposure is brief. I consider grocery stores at off hours (store pretty empty and I am wearing a N95 mask) to be OK.

 
  1. playon

    I have a case of COVID-19, I first felt the symptoms on Saturday. I am triple vaccinated and have been wearing a mask whenever I go out for almost two years. There were a few times when I did put myself in risky environments as part of my work, but none of those times were recent enough to account for this current infection. I often remove my glasses when shopping as they tend to fog up, so that may have been how I became infected. It feels like a bad flu (I am 70 but in fairly good health).

    I tested myself with a rapid home test kit which was negative, but the symptoms are classic COVID, particularly the loss of smell, along with sore throat, dry cough, fatigue etc. So I went to the local hospital where they had set up a COVID testing clinic, only to find a sign on the door that read “the COVID clinic is permanently closed” — darn — I forgot that the pandemic is officially over…

     

Various Covid Updates

Posted on April 23, 2022 by 

While the lack of any big Covid news absent the Administration’s foot shuffling when its mask mandate was shot down, that does not mean Covid should be ignored. Our Covid brain trust and readers have been sending news.

Fresh from IM Doc:

62 patients who are COVID positive – either ill themselves or found during testing or primary contacts. Again, zero unvaccinated. Of the 62 -35 were primary vaccinations, an additional 11 are with one booster – and the other 16 were 2 boostered. I had no partial VAX or J&J this week.

ZERO unvaccinated. That makes 7 weeks of not seeing a single unvaxxed patient. Colleagues all over America are reporting similar issues – usually less than 5% unvaxxed are being reported.

Something is going on. I do not believe for a minute it is because the unvaxxed have decided not to seek care. Nor is it young and healthy excuse – many of the positive vaxxed patients are young and healthy.

I am becoming increasingly concerned that this may go pear-shaped if/when a more noxious variant emerges.

And another alarming issue is rearing its ugly head again. THIS TIME MUCH EARLIER. This did not start last year until the mid to late summer. I have had to admit 3 patients this week – all adults – all 3 with RSV pneumonia. All 3 fully vaxxed and double boosted for COVID. One of these was a little old lady with DM – the other 2 were young men, healthy and robust. All had severe pneumonia. I have never admitted an adult with RSV until the COVID vaccines. Not once in 30 years. Here we go again.

Thankfully, so far, the COVID has been pretty mild. None required admission this week. However, I am certain that at most 5-10 were reported to the health officials. Severe under-reporting is going on. THERE IS A REASON THE CDC and BIDEN PROVIDED AMERICA WITH THE FREE TESTS – AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PATIENT CARE.

Needless to say, it’s not encouraging to see the vaccinated feeling sick enough that they need to see doctors. Regarding the apparent underrepresentation of the unvaccinated, it may be that they are on average more cautious than the vaccinated, who were sold repeatedly on the idea that being vaccinated protected them from getting Covid, or at least from getting all that sick. While the plural of anecdote is not date, the two unvaccinated people I know are insanely careful, hardly seeing anyone and well masked when they do.

Lambert’s Covid data wraps have shown the MA wastewater count rising to a level that was at the high end for all waves before Omicron. It had fallen off this week, but that may be an artifact of Easter/spring vacation holidays.

Additional cheery news:

 

 

Note this hypothesis could also help explain what IM Doc is seeing: individuals who got asymptomatic cases (as in they may not have realized they contracted Covid) before now getting symptomatic ones.

More variants and more waves:

 

And it’s growing!

 

Scientist GM points out this wave is a month ahead of schedule. He also points out the inconsistency in Gottlieb’s carrying water for the Administration:

In the meantime, in the US, we have some not nice subvariants to watch (hat tip guurst):

 

 

 

So it’s too early to even try to call trajectories, but these emerging variants have the potential to cause yet more trouble, particularly in the US, where we are again throwing caution to the wind.

____

There's plenty to chew on in the following post (more than just IM Doc's comment, which'll put you off pharmaceuticals if you aren't already, that follows):
 

Will Pfizer’s Paxlovid Be the Game-Changer that Saves Biden’s “Test to Treat” Program?

IM Doc

I will add a real time story.

This is going on in my office now as I speak.

An 82 year old fairly healthy woman with AFIB that is well-controlled was found to be COVID positive on Easter Sunday. She had very very minimal symptoms. She is quadruple vaxxed – with her 4th booster being given on 4-2. I would never have started her on PAXLOVID myself as she is not what I would call high risk.

Patient is at baseline on OXYBUTYNIN for bladder control from her urologist and trazadone for sleeping at night ( this is an SSRI). She is also on FLECAINIDE for atrial fibrillation.

Unfortunately all three of these agents are contraindicated with ritonavir. Those of us who have worked around AIDS patients know that this is not a drug to be blown off. Even one dose can set off problems if you happen to be on the wrong other agents.

She is in my office right now with a condition known as angioedema. Her cheeks and her neck are profoundly swollen and she has some mild swelling of the tongue. Have seen this a couple of times with ritonavir in AIDS patients as well. It is listed as one of the common problems with Paxlovid. And it can kill someone if it happens quickly or dramatically. Yes, it can.

She is being admitted at this moment.

She was in the medical system on Easter Sunday. One provider saw her – and another prescribed the drug without looking at her chart. Having this drug handed out by pharmacists who may or may not appreciate the problems puts shivers down my spine. THIS DRUG IS NOT AN M&M.


Not medical-related, but still entertaining:

  1. IM Doc

    I would add this comment from an 85 year old patient this AM.

    “When I was a young mother, I took my kids to see Mary Poppins about 6 times…..Never in my wildest dreams would I have expected to see a government official do a Mary Poppins singing routine about a subject that is so consequential as censoring and first amendment rights….Did anyone screen this person?…..Did anyone realize what a complete moron she appears to be?…….

    And then the kicker that I am hearing all the time now from my patients……..”I am going to vote GOP for the first time in my life, just to make sure these clowns have some kind of oversight…..How embarassing…..”

    I had no idea what she was talking about. I had to go look it up. I almost spit out my coffee when I saw the Mary Poppins song……Whoever that woman is – she really is a joke. It really struck me as a sign of a once great power entering its terminal decline. It is almost palpable.

    I cannot tell you all how just completely unusual it is for me to have patients talking politics like they are now. And each month that goes by, it appears to be getting bleaker by the minute for the Dems. This lady above is a life long Dem.

Yves Smith

Boosters do little to nothing to prevent infections. They prevent hospitalizations. And Omicron and BAs that ought to be named variants but aren’t largely escape the vaccines. The latest from IM Doc, and his reports for the last two months have been like this save everyone in his hospital being sick:

We now have an entire urgent care staff – including 2 MDs – who are all COVID positive. I am not just swamped – I am torpedoed.

Cases in my practice last week were up again – 88 in total. Not a single unvaxxed patient, 48 double vaxxed, 22 with one booster, and 18 with 2 booster. No vaxxed, No J&J, and no partial vaxxed.

Thankfully, no admissions. Just like last year, long phase of very mild illness.

One theory I have heard and made me think – is maybe all the unvaxxed vulnerable have died and all the unvaxxed we have left are young and healthy. I do not think so – still seeing lots of unvaxxed with risk factors in the office every day.

I have now gone two months without seeing a single unvaxxed patient. In an attempt to see if somehow this was just me, I contacted family practice docs in each of our surrounding counties with much lower VAX rates – on the order of 30-40%. Both had the same story – the absolute number of cases was WAY higher than this time last year……but in one county he had seen only 1 unvaxxed patient since MAR 1, the other county doc had seen only 7.

Something is very very wrong. Again, cases are way higher than last year and virtually all are among the VAXXED. I learned this week that in the official reporting, all of the double vaxxed only patients are being sent in as UNVAXXED – so it appears our unvaxxed rate is about 50%. But as I have explained above, that is completely misleading. The truly UNVAXXED are not the problem here. Furthermore, the numbers being reported are doing good to being 1/6 of the total. Almost all are on home or rapid tests. But unfortunately, as of this weekend, on the Drudge Report running 7 day counter – we are now seeing higher official numbers than last year. You just have to multiply by 6 on this years’s number to get close to accurate – so we are in a whole new world.

Now, I have attached an article from the paper over this weekend [contains anecdotes of many getting Covid and isolating]. Please note – this is in stark contrast to last year. I tracked down the first article of the year last year of an “unexpected surge” – which was published the week after JULY 4 – so we are two months ahead. The cases were MUCH lower last year – and we were still in the “vaccines have solved everything” mode.

All I can say is that quite a few of early vaccine publicity materials such as ones that said HCWs would become “bulletproof” did not age well – and would be considered misinformation today. These people are never going to be able to take back this stain on the reputation of public health. “Vaccination is like a superpower”…..and the nurse explaining that she was doing the VAX to get to visit her mom.

Again, in the attached article – one year later, the NH [nursing home] is in lockdown – and has been since March. Multiple patients from there with COVID in and out of the ER and hospital. All quadruple vaxxed.

Now, the scary part. The doctor’s meeting this last week was on FRI – everyone is noticing this too. Almost universally, the positive patients are vaxxed/boosted. And at my medical conference, this same pattern is being noted everywhere. The medical conference speaker had a long talk about Original Antigenic Sin and how this may be playing a role. There was also an open discussion about withholding the 4th shot until June – because JUL and AUG historically have been the bad months – and the shots are doing well to last a month. Also – a big discussion ensued as to whether the truly unvaxxed were safer in their current status. Still no resolution there – lots of arguments back and forth.

This I can tell you. We already have entire countries, Denmark, Sweden and Norway, abandoning their VAX programs – clearly largely because of what we are seeing. But there is something all of a sudden missing from press articles – that has been there for.a year – look at this attached one from small town America – not a word about getting vaccinated or boosted – not a peep. Not a peep about the advantage of vaccination, etc. I think the lack of mention is the first step.

Just look at these three random large articles. For a year now – every article would be stuffed with either entreaties to be vaccinated or jeremiads against the losers who were not. All of a sudden the past few weeks – NOTHING OF THE SORT.

I may be cynical from years of Big Pharma PsyOps. But something is up. I think there is growing realization of a big problem.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10772223/Weve-not-seen-WORST-Covid-warns-Microsoft-billionaire-Bill-Gates.html

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-705505

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-705669

8E8E0683-244B-46FE-9BB1-9E6A6E27C280.jpeg

 

Re a tweet about the White House correspondents' dinner superspreader event:

IM Doc

I saw this response to the Dr. Ding tweet above about the WHCD superspreader event. Apparently, they did not want to use some types of mitigating equipment because of the blue light this may throw off. It would tend to make someone like Biden sickly and they did not want to give anyone any ammunition.

https://twitter.com/GopSux2/status/1519692895988686849

Hey guys, FYI, as a physician, having an 80something actually get COVID is a real good way of having someone look sickly and whitish. It is called the 6 foot eternal dirt nap.

I swear, there are days I just cannot believe what I am reading.


IM Doc

Regarding Dr. Wachter –

He is considered the founder of the type of physician today we know as “hospitalists.” These are internists that work only on admitted patients in the hospital.

This movement replaced the “Marcus Welby” approach to medicine that had been present since William Osler where your own personal physician took care of you in the hospital. There are vanishingly few left that practice the old time medicine.

This was all done in the name of “efficiency” and “cost-savings”. It has taken about a generation for this to come to fruition but it is now almost universal. I could never tell there was any kind of cost savings or efficiency. A brand new doctor sees a patient in the hospital with all kinds of medical issues and before you know it tens of thousands of dollars of tests are ordered – and there are 5 or 6 subspecialists on the case instantly. A lot of reinventing the wheel to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars.

I cannot tell you the level of peace of mind that occurs when I go and see people in the hospital. They see a friend, someone they trust and know – and someone they know will keep an eye on them. The hospitalists are often excellent doctors, but are on shift work, change every day, and who knows what happens with the hand offs.

So when you are in the hospital with your elderly family member – and you are seeing a different attending physician every day, and no one seems to know exactly what is going on and chaos reigns – you can think people like Dr. Wachter. I have had the privilege of being the adult caregiver for 3 elderly family members in big cities the past 2 years – and even I, a long-time internist, was whomperjawed by the chaos.

The current trend being championed by Dr. Wachter is to even increase efficiency more by having these groups of hospitalists bought up by hedge funds and big corporations. If I am not mistaken, he has a huge share in one of the larger ones ( or at least did – I may be wrong about that).

Additionally – Dr. Wachter was one of the big pushers of the electronic health record as it is today. So again, be very grateful for him, when you are in your doctor’s office and they never bother to look at you and instead are typing into a computer the whole visit.

As such a veritable genius, Dr. Wachter is therefore entitled to all the amenities that come with being a member of the medical version of the PMC. Similar to all the members of the various boards of medicine. They have the Boards buy multimillion dollar condos for people like him to stay in, they all fly first class, and generally get to pontificate from afar on how to care for patients while never deigning to touch a patient ever.

All of this can be researched at a blog called drwes.blogspot.com. Dr. Wes is an example of someone who truly has courage. He has documented each and every one of these abuses for longer than a decade.

Just my 2 cents about your current honoree.
 

IM Doc

Just one of many reports on Dr. Wes website about the current honoree Dr. Wachter –

https://drwes.blogspot.com/2016/01/love-ethics-and-quality-assessment.html

Again, I point out – these are the physicians that our media go to for enlightening discourse about medical issues.
 

IM Doc

Regarding the list of things Americans are concerned about in this election cycle. COVID being on the bottom of the list, and Ukraine being nowhere.

#1 – Inflation

#2 – AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE.

Excuse me, Americans, for being so insolent, but OBAMACARE was engineered to make Health Care both more affordable and more accessible. It was even called the “AFFORDABLE” Care Act.

Why would you have the nerve to have that be your #2 concern on the list after all that Obama did for you? How dare you?

I will say it again – Obamacare has done nothing to make health care more affordable in any way. Indeed it is the exact opposite. I have never in my life had so many “insured” going without needed care. And who would have thought we would have needed so many “GoFundMe” pages for patient’s health issues after Obamacare.

It is just another example that if you wait long enough – the truth will eventually come forth.

Obamacare has been the single biggest debacle/disaster in politics in my lifetime. I see multiple patients daily suffering under the load. It is one of THE big reasons why this life long Dem will no longer vote for any Dem again until there is a major clean up.

Reply ↓
  1. Eudora Welty

    I am doing some temporary work in a high-tech cancer center in support for patients.
    Some anecdotes:
    — A patient said, “I was hoping I could finish chemo before my money ran out, and that didn’t happen, my money ran out, but at least I still have my job and my dog (and my life).”
    –A patient had to do the Medicaid spend-down, and (due to needing a Bone Marrow Transplant) NOW has to raise $50,000 via Gofundme for post-transplant 24-hour personal care? Maybe someone can enlighten me, but I wonder if she could have placed the funds she needed to spend-down into a post- transplant personal-care fund, rather than have to become broke on purpose and then have to ask for money. Also, Medicaid will pay for cancer-center-sponsored housing after the transplant but will not pay for 24-hr personal care.
    –A man who worked in construction had to retire and go on Medicaid in order to be able to finance the bone-marrow transplant. I’m surmising that his company’s insurance doesn’t cover such transplants.
    –Finally, the capper to me: Patient #2 above asked her doc, what if I don’t do the transplant? Apparently, a bone-marrow transplant is standard of care for Multiple Myeloma. The doc said, “You will be in a lot of pain, and you will die.” I guess there are no options besides a transplant?

    Our health-care safety-net is abysmal.

    Reply ↓
      1. Samuel Conner

        There’s a liquid asset test for eligibility for Medicaid, and if you have too many liquid assets, you have to get rid of them before you can enroll. One’s home equity is not included in the spend-down requirement, but I believe that Medicaid gets a lien on it.

        It would seem to me to make more sense to permit immediate enrollment with the placement of the surplus assets into some kind of trust or escrow to be used to reimburse Medicaid. Then one could start treatment immediately.

        Looking from the outside, it has a bit of the feel of a Kafka nightmare. I imagine that it’s much worse in lived experience.

        It’s hard to not believe that They really do want us to die.

        Reply ↓
        1. Ed Miller

          Not just liquid assets. A farmer’s widow needs to divest everything, including any portion of the farm, and get on Medicaid. My spouse’s mother had this problem in MN. Her care would have nearly bankrupted her children and their families if she still had a financial interest in the farm.

          Reply ↓
          1. Objective Ace

            Also worth noting that this is gamed by the already well off. Placing the home in a life trust so your heirs can inherit it without the government seizing it.

            *Not a lawyer, but this is what my wife’s parents told us after consulting with a lawyer

            Reply ↓
      2. IM Doc

        It has varied in different states where I have been.

        In general, in order to qualify for Medicaid benefits – you have to have reached a certain threshold of liquid assets. So, if you have a let’s say 50K savings account, every bit of that has to be gone before you qualify for Medicaid.

        This becomes a real problem with elderly demented patients who have some assets, but who could never afford nursing home care without Medicaid – but sorry – you have 8K in the bank or whatever. Absolute nightmares I have seen over my life.

        But for younger people, you literally have to be broke to qualify – and I have seen so many gut-wrenching things happen when there is a young dad, for example, who has terminal cancer – and mom and kids have to literally bankrupt themselves (ie the meager amounts they had saved for kids’ education, etc) before Medicaid will pay for dad’s care. There are literally days I want to just crawl up and die. And yes – this exact thing can absolutely happen to those with Obamacare – who can no longer afford premiums or deductibles for whatever reason, and then they get the “benefit” of the “Medicaid expansion.”

        It is tragic on every level. The fact that we had a President and legislators who thought this was a great idea – speaks absolute volumes. I almost have a PTSD reaction when a young working-class father or mother is diagnosed in my practice with bad cancer. I know their future and what their kids will be going through.
         

        IM Doc

        I think I need to make sure we all understand the mechanics of what is going on.

        I see all the commentary online about COVID vaccines or COVID itself causing the stroke of Mr. Fetterman of Pennsylvania. My take on this is that YES – 25-35 year old jocks dropping dead or going down all over the world playing soccer at the rate we are seeing it is very very concerning. These people just really do not do that at near the level we have seen the past 12 months. Something is happening there.

        However, I have seen plenty of 52 year old stressed out, overweight, hypertensive smokers who have gone down with AFIB. Press reports are not talking about his current smoking habits – but he is well known to be a very long standing aficionado of marijuana. I repeatedly tell my patients – in general – one marijuana cigarette does the same damage as 10 tobacco cigarettes to the lining of your arteries and heart – so long-time marijuana smokers are just as at risk of these types of things as tobacco smokers – maybe more so. Add some significant mental stress and a little screaming or throwing phones – and here we go.

        Your atria are the two chambers on the top of your heart. Fibrillation is the term we use when the electrical activity in those chambers becomes chaotic. The atria are NOT the actual pumping chambers – that is the ventricles – but they do prime the pump. When they are fibrilliating they look like jello – instead of squeezing. So, blood does not get pumped through correctly, and can indeed sit there so long it can clot. When that clot gets released, because of the hemodynamics of the arterial system (too long to delve into here) – it is almost always going to end up going to the brain. The middle cerebral arteries to be exact. This is a disaster. These are some of the worst strokes you can have and often cause left or right sided paralysis. If the left side is involved, it will take out the speech centers – and the person is not going to ever be able to talk like they have in the past. It will get better – but it is severe and noticeable for the rest of their lives. Again, these are horrific strokes.

        The pushback into the rest of the body you are describing is congestive heart failure. This can happen in AFIB but not commonly in the acute phase. Blood clots in the legs are rare with this – and would never get to the brain to cause a stroke outside of some very rare altered heart anatomy.

        We should not rush to blame every stroke on COVID or vaccines. I have seen plenty of 52 year old guys in my life with this exact same issue. More often than not “stressed-out screamers”. More often than not profoundly and permanently life-altering.

        As has often been the case with medicine (Chaucer, Dickens, Bronte, Milton and Shakespeare are examples), a non-medical person is the first known writer to have ever described a middle cerebral artery stroke. That honor belongs to King David of Judea. From Psalms 137 – describing perfectly the right sided paralysis and the speech defect that happens in a LEFT middle cerebral arterial stroke.

        If I forget you, Jerusalem,
        may my right hand forget its skill.
        May my tongue cling to the roof of my mouth
        if I do not remember you,
        if I do not consider Jerusalem
        my highest joy.

UK monkeypox alert as health chiefs detect another FOUR cases of killer virus with NO links to Africa — as gay and bisexual men are urged to look out for ‘unusual rash’ Daily Mail. IM Doc:

There is apparently no clue the transmission line in the UK. This virus has a fatality rate of 10%. Only supposed to be mildly to moderately contagious.

Scientist GM’s reply:

Yeah, that means community spread. Not good, but then there haven’t been rampant out of control epidemics of it in Africa, so probably won’t cause the apocalypse it would have if it was a bit more contagious.

Although there is a wrinkle here, which is that smallpox vaccination works against this too, and over time smallpox immunity has been diluting more and more as vaccination against it stopped in the 1970s. So we might end up with the monkeypox adapting better to H2H spread, the boomer generation dying out, and then we’ll have a big problem
 

While it's possible IM Doc might come and post in the last hours of 5/31, I'm making a gamble that he won't, so we're all caught up for now!
temporaryreality: (Default)
IM Doc posts/comments for March 2022.

Naked Capitalism ran this post on March 3rd. Here, IM Doc is quoted and he comments in the section below.: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/pfizer-february-2021-post-marketing-vaccine-side-effects-tally-raises-alarms.html. Although it's long, I'm just going to copy the whole thing here. 

The topic is the Pfizer document with the extremely long list of adverse events they were prompted to look for during the course of the study. There seemed to be a fair amount of debate on the ecosophia site over whether this list was actual adverse events or a list of things frequently associated with vaccines in general that should be monitored in this case.

IM Doc seems to feel that this is not just a generic list but actually a list of reactions and results that for some reason were on the radar for this particular Pfizer cocktail.

I thought it was useful to include the entirety of the comments section to get a sense of the conversation.

Pfizer February 2021 “Post Marketing” Vaccine Side Effects Tally Raises Alarms

Posted on March 3, 2022 by 

We are late to turn to a critical document obtained by FOIA by the Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency Documents. Called 5.3.6 Cumulative analysis of post-authorization adverse event reports of pf-07302048 (bnt162b2) received through 28-feb-2021. The publication of what ought to be regarded as an explosive revelation of the range and frequency of its Covid vaccine side effects has gotten barely any notice, even on Twitter. We’ve posted the document in full at the end of this post for your inspection.

Unfortunately, it’s impossible to reach any definitive conclusions about this information because it isn’t a Phase IV clinical trial, where participants trials are tracked to capture any adverse effects that occur over an intermediate period of time. Instead, this report is based on a hodge-podge of voluntary reports into various systems across 63 countries, with the overwhelming majority coming from the US and UK, from December 1, 2020 through February 28, 2021. I find putting the start as of December 1 misleading, since the first shots in the US were administered starting December 14, 2020. So you wouldn’t even start to see what happens after a full two-shot regime until end of December, which means this is effectively two, not three, months of data

Aside from side effect information not being gathered systematically and to a consistent standard, an even bigger problem is the lack of data about the denominator, the number and mix of vaccinated subjects. The lack of information about the underlying population means it’s impossible to determine the rate of these side effects. Recall that the initial rollout gave priority to the elderly, to at risk groups, and to medical workers. One of the things you’ll notice right away is that the side effects are far more common among women:

The fact that the reports don’t even capture the gender of 7% of the respondents tells you how casual and haphazard an exercise this was. Even so, at least 71% of the total is female. Is this because the underlying population was heavily female due to overrepresenting the aged (women live longer than men) and medical workers (nursing and housekeeping staff are typically women and outnumber doctors, who skew male)? Or because one of the common side effects is the triggering or intensification of autoimmune diseases, and women are more prone to them? Or both?

However, some who took an early look at the document discredited themselves by not bothering to understand its huge limits, and naively or disingenuously making claims about supposedly horribly high levels of bad outcomes among pregnant women, when there was no information whatsoever about how many pregnant women were vaccinated. Without that number, you can’t determine if those results were any worse than for a control of unvaccinated pregnant women.

Due to this document being released pursuant to the Emergency Use Authorization, as opposed to a typical drug approval process, I’m not sure what if any standards governed its production. Readers who know the ins and outs of FDA regulations are very much encouraged to pipe up. The commentary from Reuters at the end of January wasn’t terribly enlightening:

The document was submitted by Pfizer-BioNTech as part of its Biological License Application (BLA) to the U.S. Federal Drug Administration (FDA), Alison Hunt, an FDA Press Officer told Reuters via email.

The BLA is a request for permission to introduce or distribute a new biologic product across states ( here ). The FDA reviews the information in the BLA “to make sure the vaccine is safe and effective and meets the FDA’s standards for approval.” ( here )

This large number of reports comes despite the fact that, as Pfizer blandly warns using boilerplate language, the number of side effects is almost certainly understated:

Reports are submitted voluntarily, and the magnitude of underreporting is unknown…

Among adverse event reports received into the Pfizer safety database during the cumulative period, only those having a complete workflow cycle in the safety database (meaning they progressed to Distribution or Closed workflow status) are included in the monthly SMSR. This approach prevents the inclusion of cases that are not fully processed hence not accurately reflecting final information. Due to the large numbers of spontaneous adverse event reports received for the product, the MAH has prioritised the processing of serious cases, in order to meet expedited regulatory reporting timelines and ensure these reports are available for signal detection and evaluation activity. The increased volume of reports has not impacted case processing for serious reports, and compliance metrics continue to be monitored weekly with prompt action taken as needed to maintain compliance with expedited reporting obligations.

Pfizer also points out that the reporting of an adverse event does not establish causality, as in that the jab was necessarily responsible.

Nevertheless, as IM Doc said:

This is a post marketing document.

in normal times, this would be in the Phase IV period. I have no idea how this is done for an EUA.

These are apparently side effects reported after the vaccines were rolled out.

No wonder they wanted to bury this.

OMG even my cynical self is whomperjawed. I have quite frankly never seen anything like this in all my years of IRB [Institutional Review Board] work. This is absolutely unprecedented.

Please look at starting at page 30. The list is overwhelming. Something about this tells me someone should be going to jail.

It is vindication for all the months I have been questioning my sanity. Having these happening to patients all the while the media and colleagues screaming about 100% safety. This is not the vindication I wanted though. This is just plain sad.

To provide further evidence that the adverse events are undercounted, menstrual period irregularities and post menopausal bleeding are not listed. The only female reproductive plumbing issue listed is “premature menopause”. Doctors tend to downplay menstrual cycle issues, since they can be affected by stress, weight loss, and intense exercise. But a subset of women is hyper regular and changes tell them something is amiss. Other I know first or second hand report extreme change, such as going from four to five days of flow to only one and remaining there.

Even though female non-fertility is treated less seriously that female fertility, period/bleeding among menopausal women is particularly troubling, since it can be a sign of cancer. I’ve had that side effect, three times, along with PMS bloating worse than I ever had in my youth. My sonogram at the top lists the bleeding as triggered by the vaccine, which means is it considered uncontroversial in NYC to link the vaccines to the resumption of periods. My doctor was sufficiently alarmed that she wanted me scraped out pronto. So I am having to have a medical procedure due to having gotten a jab. Yet if I understand Pfizer’s categorization correctly, they would deem a case like mine to be “non-serious”.

It’s bad enough to see a significant category of side effects omitted. But on top of that, no one is tracking whether cases Covid-vaccine-induced post-menopausal bleeding have a higher incidence of cancer than typical instances of post-menopausal bleeding bleeding.

More from IM Doc:

I want to explain the “appendix 1” starting on page 30.

There is always an “appendix 1” in these reports.

It is a comprehensive list of the ASE (Adverse side effects) that are especially attuned in the study. In general, it is a list of all the things that came up in the animal studies and the Phase 1-3 trials in humans. It is an index of the things that they were to keep a close eye on.

In general, this list in most documents like this I have ever seen is 2-3 maybe 4 pages long – NOT 10.

That is what so bowled me over this AM.

I can think of 2 possible things going on here –

1) The list of ASE from the previous phases of research really are this overwhelming.

2) Pfizer knew they had lots of side effects and just wanted “to put it all out there” in an attempt to cover their ass. They may have done this because of the warp speed emergency manner in which this was done – ie – we have not had time to fully assess risk – therefore we are going to just be a sponge and take in everything.

There may be other reasons I have not thought of. Whatever the case – I have never seen anything like this in my life.

But the really damning parts are these tables – where very elevated numbers of patients are having these problems.

I have seen any number of CHEMOTHERAPY agents with less problems than this in my life.

And we have to weigh risk and benefits even in these trials. If for example a novel CHEMO agent was saving 30% but killing 5% – it would likely be approved with LARGE BLACK BOX WARNINGS.

This agent – however – is not chemotherapy. It is a vaccine to be given out to everyone. It has been screamed from the rooftops for the people to hear that it was 100% safe. Any and all discussion in the media and social media of any problems has been squelched and those stating these things called quacks. It had a benefit of an absolute risk reduction of infection of 0.2%. And here we are with all these side effects. In huge numbers. Even more concerning – is two-six months of benefit worth all of these risks? I think not.

My question would be – when did the FDA and CDC and CEOs and media people know this information? How can anyone at FDA or the White House think it was a good idea for nationwide mandates – with this kind of problem?

This is very very troubling Someone must be held to account.

But Pfizer remains a big winner. The Biden administration is determined to move on from Covid, as if Covid doesn’t have a say. And Ukraine is a huge aid in diverting attention from the ongoing pandemic.

  1. PlutoniumKun

    The first I saw of this was a number of ‘debunking’ threads from the usual suspects on Twitter, which seemed suspiciously pre-prepared.

    The information is far too haphazard for a definitive take – which may well be deliberate. But it certainly backs up the many anecdotes I’m sure plenty of us have heard. I have one friend who fell quite ill when she got the second Pfizer shot back in August and is still not fully recovered (she tested negative for Covid). There might of course be many other explanations for her ill health, but the incuriosity of the medical establishment is very telling.

     
    1. ahimsa

      “…but the incuriosity of the medical establishment is very telling.”

      intellectual curiosity is perhaps the opposite of hubris

      I suspect many in the medical establishment are victims of their training which seems to promote rote-learning, hubris, and an adherence to hierarchical strictures while discouraging independent thinking from first principles (perhaps an unfortunate consequence of increasing specialisation?).

      To offer a personal concrete example: my partner chose to get vaccinated and then boosted. While disagreeing with the latter (our low risk vs. the data long trending in the wrong direction) I pleaded that she should at the very least insist that the syringe be aspirated to reduce unnecessarily added risk.

      The doctor effectively refused to respect her patient’s wishes citing institutional protocol, dismissing aspiration as outdated, and even cIaiming it could damage the mRNA vaccine in the syringe. I was furious with the outcome arguing aspirating clearly cannot harm the patient or vaccine but quite obviously help reduce (the very small) risk of unintended intravenous delivery.

      About 10 weeks later the German vaccine authorities issued new guidelines revoking their standard recommendation for administering vaccines and now explicitly recommend aspiration for all SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The aforementioned doctor will of course now dutifully aspirate everytime.

      To my mind, such a doctor is not a practitioner of medicine and healing but simply a box-ticking, faithful servant of the medical establishment.

       
      1. KLG

        “To my mind, such a doctor is not a practitioner of medicine and healing but simply a box-ticking, faithful servant of the medical establishment.”

        Some of us are trying to reverse this very real trend, but swimming upstream is exhausting.

         
        1. ahimsa

          Hallo KLG, no offence intended, more exasperation. Very trying times for me witnessing all the groupthink and scapegoating in German society at the moment.

          I wish you strength in your struggles.

           
      2. Basil Pesto

        I had to make a bit of a (very polite) song and dance to get my syringe aspirated for my 2nd AZ shot. nurses were unable/unwilling so they had to get a doc to do it. He was happy to but slightly condescending re: my request. I mentioned the recently released (at the time) paper hypothesising that AZ thrombocytopenia may have been caused by vaccine binding with a protein in the blood (iirc) he said he and his colleagues had seen it but weren’t inclined to aspirate because “it wasn’t part of the protocol”

        This was presumably part of the same constellation of protocols that insisted I take my FFP2 respirator off and replace it with a surgical mask upon entry to the vax clinic.

        A Canadian doctor friend was a bit mystified that aspiration should be controversial because she’d just been taught that’s how you inject.

         
    2. Kris Alman

      The publication of what ought to be regarded as an explosive revelation of the range and frequency of its Covid vaccine side effects has gotten barely any notice, even on Twitter.

      Perhaps twitter purged all the accounts that critiqued the Pfizer vaccine after this report?

      And can we expect more purged accounts with their “experimental Birdwatch program, which seeks to enlist Twitter’s users to flag and debunk misinformation on the social platform”?
      https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/to-fight-misinformation-twitter-expands-project-to-let-users-fact-check-each-other-s-tweets/ar-AAUyF83

       
    3. lordkoos

      In March of 2021 I went into the ER two weeks after my second shot of Pfizer. I had extreme dizziness and some pain in the middle of my chest, like a bubble or pressure in the esophagus. These symptoms were far outside my normal ongoing health concerns (which are fairly minimal for my age) and have not repeated since that time. They could find nothing at the ER and released me after a couple of hours when I felt better. I am 90% certain it was the vaccine. I will not take another MNRA vax from here on out.

       
  2. E.L.

    Oh no, 7k people got a fever and 10k reporting here got a headache and the next largest side effect group is muscle aches. Gosh, I do seem to remember all of these being publicized and expected possible side effects. 20% of the self reported side effects are a headache, how terrifying. And continuing down reading the actual document instead of this fear-mongering bit, 1927 of these reports are Covid-19, which somehow, I don’t think is an actual side-effect of the vaccine. Off-label use is a ‘side effect’ reported here too. That gets you a lot of the way to N=42k, I gotta say.

    I think the call out for changes to menstrual cycles is valid, and I’ve seen a lot of requests (speaking as someone with a menstrual cycle) to report those effects. For the actually concerning immune disorders, half the reported ones here are filed under ‘Hypersensitivity’ which seems to be a VERY general term and about the same number are ‘Resolved/Resolving’. But I don’t see anything here incredibly irresponsible. So many of these things are also side-effects of the virus itself, and speaking as someone who was in NYC when cases started going up, who got sick without being able to get a test and who remembers how accurate the antibody tests weren’t… Good luck clearing up that data, that’s all I have to say.

     
      1. Dean

        It is not clear what that list represents. Are these all actually reported events from vaccinations? From the statement it appears to be a broader list of potential events, many of which are associated with COVID-19 (so might not be associated with vaccine):

        “The AESI terms are incorporated into a TME list and include events of interest due to their
        association with severe COVID-19 and events of interest for vaccines in general.”

        Looks to me like CYA to say they looked for any possible adverse event.

         
        1. Yves Smith

          No, per IM Doc, who was on the board of an IRB for about a decade and a half and its chair for a few years, Appendix 1 is a standard section. These are reported events.

           
          1. Dean

            With all due respect for IM Doc, his expertise, IRB experience, and wisdom this document was submitted to the FDA not an IRB. Whether IRB’s and the FDA have different criteria for reporting I do not know.

            I can only speculate, based on the language referring to the appendix, that Pfizer included potential adverse conditions that may not have been caused by the vaccine. But rather included conditions associated with severe SARS-CoV-2 infections as well as those caused by other vaccines.

             
          2. TBellT

            At least one scientist disagrees with such a reading 4:01

            “This is not a list of adverse events that have occurred after covid vaccination, it is a list of adverse events of special interest. What that means is that they are events that are particularly important to track or monitor and the list is actually drawn up before the start of clinical trials, so they reflect what could potentially happen, not what has actually happened”

             
    1. Jeff

      Good articulation of the type of resistance that will continue to be the boilerplate response rolled out each time any criticism is leveled at vaccines. “See, there’s no smoking gun.”.

       
    2. IM Doc

      Not sure you have ever sat on an IRB.

      Before COVID, this would have never flown.

      And I am glad you are so assured of the benign nature of the side effects of this vaccine. I would love for you to talk to a few dozen of my patients or their families. That is just it, though. Our entire media, officials, and official medicine have decided they are not real. Just imagine how these people feel. I do not have to imagine. I know.

      Instead of dealing with this forthrightly, our officials have decided to conceal. And part of the consequences of that is the vaccination program for COVID is now moribund. The reputation of public health and medicine is on the lowest ebb I have ever seen. We may have permanently damaged our entire vaccine program for everything else. I typically give out 800 or so flu shots. This year was 62. And for the first time in my life, I am having threats of physical violence expressed to me by patients against health officials and authorities. Both of which came from family members of those suffering from the completely “ benign” side effects. I have been able to talk them down. But what happens if the pcp is someone telling them it is all in their head and the side effects are non-existent. What if their PCP is one who completely blows off this kind of document?

      Give this whole process another several months. We are all going to find out what is real.

       
    3. Still Above Water

      “20% of the self reported side effects are a headache, how terrifying.”

      My sister-in-law, who almost never has headaches, got one the night of her second shot that lasted almost two months. Yes, some people find the prospect of never-ending pain to be terrifying. Please, learn how to empathize.

      As for C-19 being a side effect, IM Doc noted on this blog back in February of last year:

      “I have frankly been stunned by the number of people who become COVID positive with symptoms within a day or two of the first dose. Many HCW and fully 25-30% of the nursing home patients. I do not believe this is related to behavior because these are mostly a captive audience still following protocols in the NH, HCW who are still under directives for PPE, and the 75 and up crowd I know are still taking things very seriously. This was such an issue that they tested all our shot-givers and all were negative.

      In other words, we are not vaccinating thirtysomethings who then go out to party. Nor are the shot-giving personnel seem to be infected and giving it to the patients.

      Again, this is a very clear pattern. Vaccine is given and within 2 days they are coughing or fevering and are COVID positive.”

      I’ve since seen this phenomenon confirmed elsewhere.

       
      1. Still Above Water

        Please note that these post-shot cases are always counted as unvaccinated, thus increasing the supposed efficacy of the shots. Without this statistical sleight of hand, it’s likely the 50% efficacy required for FDA approval would never have been reached.

         
  3. disco disco

    The illuminati already planned for this scenario back in 2017, did a rehearsal document Johns Hopkins Univ. – SPARS pandemic exercise.

    It was covered in chapter 17 – Vaccine injury – in their SPARS pandemic exercise handbook. I guess they just look in the book for how to respond.

     

     
    1. Mr. House

      Its funny, it does feel like so much of it was premeditated. Like it was all script, with so many plot holes mind you, it was easy to see where they were trying to take us. Covid never scared me, but peoples reaction to it sure as heck did.

       
  4. Mr. House

    I would submit they knew this before they rolled it out. I work for a very large Healthcare/insurance company. They had a townhall in Febuary of 2021 about the jabs. They were stating then, in Febuary of 2021 that you would likely need boosters, maybe up to three times a year. They didn’t state this to the public, i wonder why? But they knew. If you want to destroy our for profit corrupt medical system and replace it with something more humane, now is the time.

     
  5. Mr. House

    “But Pfizer remains a big winner. The Biden administration is determined to move on from Covid, as if Covid doesn’t have a say. And Ukraine is a huge aid in diverting attention from the ongoing pandemic.”

    Many of us have resolved that this can not be swept under the rug like 2008. I myself think much of what happened in 2020 was connected to 2008. If you let this get swept under the rug, something even worse will happen again in the not to near future. Nobody got punished for 2008 and how well did that work out for us? This was even worse in my opinion then 08, do not let it fade away because it be even worse next time.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      Not what the vax alarmists would have you believe.

      First, the transcription was, as the headline clearly says in vitro.

      Second, was done in a cancer cell line, as in not normal cells

      Third and most important, the section transcribed was “junk” DNA, as in genetic code that normally does not do anything.

       
      1. SE

        I think does not normally do anything is an overstatement of the inactivity of Junk DNA. That is what people said 20 years ago. Less so now. Line 1 elements (the ‘junk’ in question) are biologically active, and a part of multiple disease etiologies. Some examples:

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7426637/

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC4124830/

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7426637/

        The in vitro transcription is merely evidence that this needs to be looked into in vivo, which did not happen as a part of the vax safety testing and should have.

         
        1. Yves Smith

          Biomedical prof KLG and scientist GM do not agree. First, from scientist GM via e-mail.

          The scientific community has a lot to answer for here unfortunately.

          “Junk DNA” has been hyped as something important for several reasons:

          1. Religious motivations, including by a lot of scientists themselves. Because if 90% of the genome is junk, then why did God make it that way? Can’t be, it must be that the genome is 100% functional.

          2. Non-religious anthropocentric bias. We are humans, the most advanced and perfect creatures on Earth, it cannot be that the genome is in such a degenerate state

          3. Pure selfish greed. If the whole genome is functional, then we can ask for a lot of money to study it.

          The reality is that genome is indeed 90% junk, and that anyone who thinks otherwise is deeply ignorant of basic evolutionary theory. Unfortunately that does include a lot of big name scientists, because the training system they have passed through sees no utility in teaching them such basic things, so they are not taught any of that, and then you have big shot PIs having published hundreds of papers and raked in tens of millions of dollars who have never heard about the relationship between effective population size and the power of natural selection to purge mildly deleterious variation. If the selective coefficient is smaller than ~1/N_e, then that allele becomes effectively neutral. This is precisely the case with transposable element expansions in large-bodied organisms (such as mammals), so they don’t get purged even though they are deleterious. The result is that the genome has become bloated with junk DNA over time, and not just that, that is only a part of a long list of degenerate features. Because effective population size for mammals in between 10^4 and 10^5, and for humans in particular it is on the very low end of that range. So we are some of the most genomically degenerate creatures on the planet, even without the effects of advanced technological civilization on relaxing natural selection even further (however, that will last only very briefly on an evolutionary time scale because technological civilization is doomed to self-destruction).

          And KLG:

          Yes, LINE-1 activation is associated with disease, and these transposons that make up a large fraction of the human genome can be activated in transformed cells (cancer) and perhaps in cells/organisms poisoned by xenobiotics. Yes, also to “junk DNA” sometimes, maybe oftentimes, being DNA for which a function has not been found. Long non-coding RNAs, for example, are important in heart and other developmental pathways. This was a surprise to many, who though RNA was not stable enough for this activity. What most molecular biologists, who should know better, is that the secondary and tertiary structure of RNAs in vivo can protect the molecule from degradation by RNases. Those of us who have purified mRNA are very skittish. But in my long experience purifying RNA from all kinds of cells, most of those who have problems with RNA stability have lousy technique. And poor hands.

          The recent paper by Markus Alden et al. on reverse transcription of spike mRNA in Huh7 cells, which are identified as “human liver cells,” is not particularly credible even though the materials and methods and execution seem sound. Huh7 cells were initially grown from a liver tumor 40+ years ago in Japan IIRC and have been used now and again as experimental models. But, immortal, transformed human cell lines are not good models for the study of human disease at the cellular level (but they can be very useful in the study of cell structure, adhesion, and motility). This is one (good) reason that the National Cancer Institute has instituted a very high bar for approval of studies using such cells. This was not true 20 years ago, and a lot of work that is not relevant to cancer etiology and progression was funded. This is not to say that current NCI funding prerogatives are correct or particularly wise, though. These transformed cells are often severely aneuploid and otherwise deranged, as they accumulate mutations during passage and propagation in culture. One often wonders if they could even grow in the organism. Different derivatives of HeLa cells (a long and fraught topic for another time) respond completely differently regarding LINE-1 activation. Some isolates show very active transposition and some are virtually inactive. They are the same cells though when analyzed by their source, American Type Culture Collection, ATCC #CCL-2 IIRC. LINE-1 seems to be mobilized in Huh7 cells, and that certainly accounts for the apparent reverse transcription and insertion of spike coding DNA into the genome of these cells. But this work is also made possible by the sensitivity of PCR. It can pick up events that occur at a vanishingly small frequency.

          Moreover, in the Abstract of the Alden et al. paper the first sentence notes “Preclinical studies of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine BNT162b2, developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, showed reversible hepatic effects in animals that received the BNT162b2 injection (thanks to a colleague for noticing this).” Perhaps. But the jump from that statement to demonstrating spike protein coding sequence in the genomic DNA of Huh7 cells says absolutely nothing about “hepatic effects” in animals. This may indicate motivation on the part of the authors, as does their chosen journal (also a different topic for another time). An effect on severely deranged liver cells that were isolated from a liver tumor a long time ago an have since evolved into something else, perhaps. But so what?

          There are many and manifold reasons to suspect these vaccines, which really are not vaccines as understood by virtually all of us. But rare events in deranged cancer cells that have been passaged in vitro through hundreds, maybe thousands, of generations is not one of them. Moreover, very rare events happen constantly in dividing somatic cells. The vast majority are inconsequential.

           
    2. Robert E Most, MD

      Yves has this about right. There is NO indication that biologically active DNA is transcribed in these cells, and yes the fact that Huh7 is a cancer line (something like HeLa) makes the headline results nearly meaningless.

      What does matter is that LINE-1 is increased. LINE-1 is part of the regulatory network and is increased in several specific cancers. (colorectal being #1) But again, these are cancer cells; they clearly do respond to the mRNA with increased LINE-1, but how abnormal are they in this regard? I am pretty sure that we are seeing vax-associated increased cancers due to suppression of p53 which is a ubiquitous reguatory protein. I have not seen anything on LINE-1. So don’t worry about this, at least not yet. The greater threat based on current knowledge, is probably sub-clinical myocarditis.

       
        1. Robert E Most, MD

          This is a secondary reference. Peter McCullough, MD, whom I greatly respect, was very worked up when this issue broadly came out months ago. (I’m not gonna search for the paper. ) He and MIT prof Stephanie Seneff wrote about this earlier. Seneff is also worth our attention (glyphosate expert) I’m not saying it is not possible; just saying they don’t have evidence and their bias is to get worked up over this. Also, general note: AFLD does good work but they are not good with statistics. (Bayesian analysis eludes them.)

           
  6. PKMKII

    Question is, is this a sign that the vaccine has an extreme outlier number of side effects (rates aside) for a vaccine? Or is this a sign that the study did a sloppy job of controlling for variables and existent conditions? The list is big, but it also seems bizarre in the variety; like, even if you were designing a drug to create side effects it’d be impressive to get a list this long.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      This wasn’t a study. It was a compilation of voluntary reports from all over the globe. I never reported my side effect, even though I regard it as pretty bad, and I suspect quite a few others didn’t either.

       
      1. chris

        We didn’t report my two daughters’ menstrual issues post vaccine either. My poor younger daughter had just started her cycle 6 months prior and thought she knew what would happen. Post vax she had extreme bleeding – as in times when no amount of pads could help her. My oldest had the opposite. Almost complete cessation. Both were scared. Gynecologist told us they’re OK but they definitely experienced the kind of side effects that the media has decided cannot happen.

         
    2. Robert E Most, MD

      I think they list a huge number of possibilities along with real concerns. You will be worn out before you get to Guillame-Barre Syndrome. I believe that this is deliberate obfuscation.

      Many of us knew in advance that a multiplicity of effects were possible (and I’m an amateur). James Lyons-Weiler in particular warned of many immunogenic epitopes on the spike protein. Some of this appears to be the result of an attempt to design a Live Attenuated Vaccine, so an accidnetal leak of Tony Fauci’s hubris is a leading hypothesis.

       
    3. Lex

      Beginning in November, following first our annual flu vaccines and then Covid Boosters… in my husband the side effect looked like a sudden attack of some systemic arthritis. All of his joints hurt; he was diagnosed with “frozen shoulder” and treated first by his doctor and then a PT. He lost the strength in his hands he’s just now recovering. He’s 63.

      For me (64) it was cellulitis (Nov 3) that the combination of Keflex and Bactrim didn’t slow down in the least. It was only defeated by three days of prednisone. A month later (Dec 8) I woke up in the the night to a dull pain in my lower right abdomen. I tried to address it through the night but in the morning gave up and walked into the emergency room (which was btw completely empty at 6 a.m.). Diagnosis: appendicitis. And a fewer hours later I was wheeled in for an appendectomy. No further episodes for either of us; the recovery has been slow though. It took us a few months to look at what had happened to both us and the timing. Who got their shots when and what happened next.

      If these unfortunate incidents had occurred to just one or the other, we would have passed it off as a run of bad luck but it was just too coincidental. I think the virus (even when delivered in minute amounts via syringe) exploits the holes in our individual immune systems. The list of side effects (cut and pasted in) acknowledges the sheer breadth of those immunological weaknesses across humanity.

      We’ve been shoring up our immune systems ever since.

       
      1. Kris Alman

        Last year I developed a frozen shoulder (aka adhesive capsulitis), subsequent to the 2nd jab of the shingles vaccine. It took ~8 months to resolve with aggressive PT–though it was too painful to do much PT in the first couple of months.

        Relating my symptoms to two of my friends, I heard of two more cases of frozen shoulder after the Pfizer vaccine.

        Turns out frozen shoulder has been reported after pneumococcal and influenza vaccines. It’s been blamed on the administration of the vaccine, but I know that wasn’t the case for me.

        In a case report of bilateral adhesive capsulitis after the influenza vaccines, the authors postulated that cytokines may be involved in the pathogenesis and it is most likely that a systemic immune response.
        https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ccr3.3072

         
        1. Antagonist Muscles

          Although I had shoulder pain and range of motion problems prior to the Pfizer vaccine, that pain was slightly worse after the shot. Is it a coincidence that pain in my right shoulder exacerbated several days after the first jab, which was administered in my right deltoid, whose responsibility is raising my arm? It is certainly conceivable that a shot in the deltoid caused local inflammation, which then incapacitates the muscle. I should note that I tend to sleep on my right side. The good news is my shoulder is pain free now.

          The length of the adverse events on page 30 of the linked document was laughably long. I thought about “Alphabet Aerobics”, the alphabetical rap song by Blackalicious.

          Yves states in the post that adverse events are undercounted. Here is my additional anecdotal side effect. I also had a flare up of eczema on my back one week after the first jab. I have had eccema before but never on my back.

           
  7. fresno dan

    My own bete noire is adverse event reporting in the US. Sometimes the forest is missed for all the trees.
    Adverse event reporting post marketing is voluntary
    Although FDA valiantly (/sarc) tries to justify volunteer adverse event reporting, it simply is absurd.

    https://www.fda.gov/drugs/surveillance/questions-and-answers-fdas-adverse-event-reporting-system-faers#:~:text=FDA%20receives%20voluntary%20reports%20directly,report%20to%20the%20products'%20manufacturers.
    Healthcare professionals, consumers, and manufacturers submit reports to FAERS. FDA receives voluntary reports directly from healthcare professionals (such as physicians, pharmacists, nurses and others) and consumers (such as patients, family members, lawyers and others). Healthcare professionals and consumers may also report to the products’ manufacturers

     
  8. Gumnut

    The closest image I have heard for the situation around this is ‘it’s like one of those [alien/zombie] movies, where they have infiltrated the population, the protagonists run to the authorities to warn, just to discover their eyelids are blinking vertically’.

    I follow closely what are moderation-passing sources here on NC & will abide by local customs – if Malone/Kirsch et.al. are to screechy/ “over their skis”, then please have a peruse of Jessica Rose’s (was in links for ivm study a few days back) or Igor Chudov’s substacks.

    German health insurer exec getting fired over reporting considerably higher adverse event numbers in his 11million insurees (over 10% of the German population = decent sample size one would think) than the public Paul Ehrlich Institut (PEI) numbers is like a brazen Orwell memory hole operation in plain sight. He gets fired within days. At the Bundespresskonferenz, the government spokesperson makes clear he is fully aware of the open letter (from BKK exec to the PEI, had been in Welt newspaper, not biggest, but major paper), but (one must assume deliberately) says the absolute numbers are “mostly people feeling a bit off and being written off sick for a few days”, while the letter is explicit in that it counts explicitly only vax adverse side effect diagnosis codes (in German health system all diagnoses have an alpha-numerical code & there are explicit vax side effect codes), not being written off sick (that is clearly not a diagnosis). Then a few days of Ukraine media distraction and then today the hit-piece on tagesschau.de that the exec is an anti-vax looney (Querdenker), nothing to see here. Never met the guy or seen an interview, but an insurance exec from one of Germany’s biggest health insurerers (prime PMC) speaking out, knowing that this is a likely career-ending move. I don’t know, working hypothesis is alien-movie * 1984. The gods help us.

     
  9. Laura in So Cal

    I have 3 people in my immediate circle (all vaccinated and 2 boosted) who have significantly worsening health issues or new potentially serious health problems. My sister has a long standing auto immune disease that has flared significantly in the last 6 months. She developed a new problem with chronic anemia and is having to get iron infusions. This might be related to the vaccines or not. My best friend started having nosebleeds a week after her booster. After a month of this, she had blood tests done and her white blood cell counts are elevated. She beat leukemia 25 years ago with a bone marrow transplant and now we are worried that it has come back. More tests are coming. My father is having issues swallowing and had tests scheduled to image a mass or obstruction near his trachea/esophogas. I fear issue with his lymphatic system. Maybe cancer. He is 80 but was in excellent health. Both my best friend and my father had covid at some point as well as the vaccines so that muddies the water.

    I’m frightened and sad. I anticipate spending a lot more time in the future helping those close to me deal with their health problems.

     
    1. flora

      Similar stories in my circle of friends. Fit people, walkers, gardeners, but older, so one could say its only coincidence’. Problems began within a month of taking the second dose. Their docs are adamant it isn’t vox related. At this point I ask myself how their docs can be sure it isn’t related?

       
      1. JBird4049

        They can’t and neither can you, but all the lying and non-thinking with bonus massive corruption makes it very hard to believe that the vaccines and/or Covid are not responsible. Individually, it easily could be something else, but…. It is stuff like this that makes the antivaxxers believable, and next time when there is an effective vaccine for another lethal disease, could anyone be blamed for not taking it? That will get people killed. The stupidity, greed, and near-sightedness is just awesome to see.

         
  10. ChristopherJ

    Thanks Yves for sticking to the knitting. If these vaccines have been harming people, I have not participated in the experiment, then the cat is well and truly out of the bag. This links with the Edward Dowd’s revelations of fraud by the vaccine companies and much higher all cause deaths than they had been anticipating. There is no way the insurance companies are going to cop bigger than expected pay-outs if the deaths are linked to these vaccines.

    Cannot be covered up. U

     
  11. Robert E Most, MD

    I’m a clinician with about 5 years on the research review committee of large health system, did a small bit of research during medical school, based in part upon research-tech training in immunohistochemistry and such – not average for an MD to start as I come from a science family. So I was early to the lab-leak hypothesis (99% proven now; you can ignore the NYT please) and early to analysis of the mRNA transfections as potentially very harmful. I am not surprised by any of this though the 3% mortality figure still seems high to me versus clinical observation and chatting with hospitalists and nurses (nurses often better observers and more ethical than docs). I did psychiatric consults to an ICU before losing my job as the hospital went to a vaccine mandate. (I’m a past reader of Naked Cap, MMT-informed, but too preoccupied teachng myself virology-immunology to keep up the past two years. I feel remiss in not contributing here in more ways than one.)

    A few comments and references:
    The lack of information about the underlying population –
    we do know that the test population was enriched for healthier people. It is low in subjects with diabetes, HTN and obesity. We also know that people who had adverse events after the first jab were osmetimes dropped from the study, and that serious events were sometimes mislabeled.

    IM Doc: “in normal times, this would be in the Phase IV period. I have no idea how this is done for an EUA.”
    The control group was destroyed by the Pharma Cos., by vaccinating them. All we have left is the unvaccinated population. WE are probably in better general health to start with, so there is that limitation to what will be seen in the next few years, but we will begin to stand out for lower mortality, cancer and cardiovascular deaths and lower autoimmune diseases. This is already being seen in insurance data and reports are suppressed. Some of the intermediate term “vaccine” effects are buried within the massive increase of deaths in working age Americans. All the Sudden Adult Death Syndrome, footballer deaths and student athlete deaths that get reported (locally; suppressed nationally) are just the visible tip.
    On insurance data, see: https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/vaccine-induced-mortality-part-9?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email&s=r
    I have not read it myself but I am familiar with the data and it is an excellent blog.

    We are also seeing that effects of immune compromise (certainly Original Antigenic Sin and probably some percentage of Antibody Dependent Enhancement, probably some immune suppression-CD8 cells especially – due to toxicity of the spike protein) are resulting in NEGATIVE efficacy in Scotland and Israel, where they did keep better statistics. Both countries are now obscuring the figures.
    We have thus far not seen the progression to severe disease as happened in Marek’s Disease. I think we got lucky with Omicron, but that is a complicated story. The vax-transfections have clearly pushed evolution of variants and almost certainly have prolonged the pandemic – another long discussion.

    One check on VAERS under-reporting is the leaked CMS data reported by Attorney Thomas Renn. Deaths are probably 2.5 – 3 x the events reported through VAERS, which is deliberately designed as a bottleneck. (“Anybody can report” – No! it takes months for even something as obvious as Guillame-Barre Syndrome to make it through the gauntlet of reviewers.) Renn is also working with DOD figures that credibly show 10x the baseline rate of neurological events. I say credible as a 24 year-member of the Am. NeuroPsychiatric Assoc, and direct clinical experience of how neurologists under-report. Because MDs are afraid to “increase vaccine hesitancy” they do not report – sometimes for reasons as case histories can be complicated – so we do not know the variance from baseline for something like Bell’s Palsy. Doctor Porn like “MedPage Today” works hard at “debunking” suggestions that events are causally connected (spare me the “Correlation does not equal …” crap!)

    A lot of doctors have been pretty nearly brainwashed and at this point their awakening from this nightmare may have less to do the size of Med School loans and mortgages than the impossible guilt over having been duped into harming patients (Meanwhile Janice Woodcock of the FDA opiate mafia has been made 2nd in command of the whole agency. You will find more truth in season 4 of Goliath than in all the NYT reporting of the last 2 years).

    I cannot begin to tell you all the cheap-tricks-dumbed-down-immunology sold by Anthony Fauci over the last 30+ years. Doctors believe that crapification, and it has been pushed on the public by nearly all media.

    IM Doc: “In general, this list in most documents like this I have ever seen is 2-3 maybe 4 pages long – NOT 10.”
    I suspect that the list includes low probability events and possibilities in part as obfuscation.

    These mRNA products should not be called vaccines. The 20+ year old term for this procedure is transfection.
    Start saying it:
    “mRNA transfection procedure” or “Vax-transfection”
    Stop using the changed definition from the propaganda arms of the Big Pharm Octopus.

    Finally, we have all been woefully miseducated. The twitter link here leads to a broadly and deeply educated neurobiologist who is self-educated in immunology and able to represent and critique the views of top world viro-immunologists like Wolfgang Wodard, and Geert Vanden Bossche, DNA/RNA experts and manufacturing process knowledgeable. He has been broadly correct from the beginning, unlike all the compromised “experts”, some of whom some of you follow. You can easily find links to Gigahom Biology on Twitch TV and to his own website.
    SAR-CoV2 is not the last “leak” from a lab; Gates and Fauci have virtually promised us that. Better to get educated now: https://twitter.com/jjcouey/status/1499376101403111427

     
    1. Tinky

      Thank you for your perspective, Doc, and thanks for helping to legitimize my very first “alternative” source on the topic of COVID, Jonathan Couey, aka J.C. on a Bike (on Youtube). During the early months of the pandemic, I had a number of posts linking to him removed, on various sites, because he dared to challenge the mainstream Zoonotic origin narrative.

       
      1. Robert E Most, MD

        Seeing your comment alone makes the effort worthwhile. When I read “Proximal Origins” by that group of virology-liars (since self-debunked along with Fauci thanks to FOIA’d emails) I had read the Ralph Baric Menachery-Zengli Li Shi 2015 paper https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26552008/ about 5 times. (Describes their creation of a chimeric CoV).
        “Proximal Origins” was so immediately obviously bad science, so clearly a cover-up, that I felt a bit crazy. Cover-up? But yeah, NIH and NIAID intellectual property is behind all this; how exactly we cannot know. The structure of the spike protein, the RaTG13 oddities … so I felt relieved when J.C. took apart the paper. Chris Martenson saw almost exactly the same thing at the same time.
        I have also fought for HCQ and against Remdesivir in my own hospital, where maybe half the staff is followers, but most docs looked at me like I have two heads. My previous supervisees (MDs) think of me as “retired” OK!
        Healthier for me to be out of the corporate environment. In my own place soon, I’ll be able to host video conference seminars with “JC on a bike”. Tonight, he teaches network neurobiology – almost heaven for me!

         
  12. Tutti

    Contrary to the safety norms we were used to, commercial press had a single and impossible to overcome “true” on the safety of a new vaccine never proved before.

    We have seen this before. And it is repeating again in Ukraine.

    I never reported my effects. There was/is not a service/platform to do that. I consulted two doctors and they aggressively dismissed any relation with the vaccine.

     
  13. Screwball

    Maybe it’s just me, but between the opioid epidemic with the pill mills, to this, I don’t think big pharma gives one good $hit if they maim and kill people as long as they make money. Neither do the politicians nor the BS artists of the media.

    And we still have people who think the jabs are perfectly safe, should be mandatory, and if you get the shots you will be safe from getting the virus.

    Orwell would be proud.

     
    1. Arizona Slim

      Sotto voce: Screwball, I agree with you.

      And this NC post is yet another reason why I have chosen to remain in the control group. I don’t think that these jabs are safe or effective.

       
      1. Screwball

        We are in the same group Arizona Slim. I do all I can with what I have. I did read the other day (somewhere, maybe on Twitter) that someone who buys the drug that cannot be named ordered some more (I need to do the same) and it was held up in customs. That could be a problem.

        I have also read the post office was refusing to deliver if they knew what it was. I know my mailman pretty well so I point blank asked him. He said he was not aware of any order to not deliver. That is good news.

        I have to wonder as well, how long ago would this news we are reading about here be front and center to the public? From my perspective, any and all “non-good” news about the vaccines hasn’t been covered, or you had to really look hard to find it.

        That just isn’t right. We have a right to know. Even if it’s people who won’t believe it anyway (and I think there are such people).

         
  14. Moonbeam

    The most telling perspective RE: Table-7 (Pfizer footer pages 15-25) :: “Conclusion: This cumulative case review does not raise any new safety issues.”

     
  15. Michael McK

    Thank you.
    A few months ago I checked out VAERS. It is not too hard to navigate and I found that there were 8490 deaths reported for 2021 associated with the COVID vaccines and only 1880 deaths reported for all other vaccines from 1990 through 2018 combined. A dismissive doctor on a radio show who did not allow followup questions claimed 25% of Covid VAERS reports came from outside of the USA as if 6350-odd deaths vs 1880 is that much less alarming.
    That the anomalous signal can be so strong yet the system rolls blindly along with the bulk of the population seemingly A-OK with things as they are speaks volumes to our apathy regarding our war mongering and our (unrecognizable to Adam Smith) form of “Free Market Capitalism”.

     
  16. ItsAllThere

    Dr. Fauci’s first approach was to abort the three-year clinical trials at six months and then vaccinate the controls —a preemption that would prevent detection of long-term injuries, including pathogenic priming. Regulators initially intended the Pfizer vaccine trial to continue for three full years, until May 2, 2023. (14)
    Because the FDA allowed Pfizer to unblind and terminate its study after six months—and to offer the vaccine to individuals in the placebo group—we will never know whether vaccinated individuals in the trial suffered long- term injuries, including pathogenic priming, that cancelled out short-term benefits. Science and experience tell us that many vaccines can cause injuries like cancers, autoimmune diseases, allergies, fertility problems, and neurological illnesses with long-term diagnostic horizons or long incubation periods. A six- month study will hide these harms.

    14 ClinicalTrials.gov, “Study to Describe the Safety, Tolerability, Immunogenicity, and Efficacy of RNA Vaccine Candidates Against COVID-
    19 in Healthy Individuals,” (April 30, 2020), https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/sho w/NCT04368728?term=NCT04368728&draw=2&rank=1

     
  17. Majia

    I suffered a serious systemic allergic reaction to Moderna and my spouse has suffered just about every vascular “side effect” that exists from this “vaccine,” all of which have been documented by specialists as vaccine injuries. A year later the medical bills caused by the vaccine continue to accumulate.

    Although our lot number has been linked with a very high adverse events rate, I suspect the reason we had such severe reactions was also compounded by our early exposure to the virus.

    I am absolutely convinced that every exposure to the spike protein increases likelihood of these severe reactions. Individual vulnerabilities are varied as are reactions, complicating population level analysis but the empirical evidence is growing to support this hypothesis. Yet, I see that Biden proposes to purchase 3 additional “vaccines” per US citizen (as reported in WSJ).

    As a social theorists of liberalism, I was and remain shocked by citizens’ willingness to give up their bodies to a pharmaceutical-biotech complex that does not have a history of transparency and has had severe and recent proven ethical lapses.

    But then again, how many of us voluntarily received the vaccine that was made mandatory for our employment?

    As a student and teacher of crisis communications, I would regard pandemic crisis communications as ethically impaired and anti-democratic as censorship and stigmatization of dissent were deployed in the vastest, most well-orchestrated display of propaganda humanity has ever witnessed.

    The country is divided so to avert civil war another spectacle will be devised to keep the emotional economies charged but fractured.

    However, I believe we aren’t done with the spike protein and that we also aren’t done with the techno-fascism elements seeking to exploit it.

    The challenge is preserving happiness, democracy, and human rights – especially rights over one’s own body and its mobilities – in an increasingly inhospitable and walled-world.

     
    1. Robert E Most, MD

      Although our lot number has been linked with a very high adverse events rate:
      Are you in the NorthEast? higher spike fidelity in manfacturing in that area; “broken bioweapon is safer” per one Pfizer insider, Sasha Latypova.

      I suspect the reason we had such severe reactions was also compounded by our early exposure to the virus.
      Absolutely! 2-4 times higher rate of signif adverse events if vax tops off natural immunity.
      The cumulative effects show up as reduced immune response to the N protein of CoV2 after third jab per UK NHS data.
      Inflammatory effects are likely to be cumulative – but most of us think you can clear spike over time

       
      1. Majia

        We are in the southwest. Here is our Moderna Lot # Lot 030B21A

        The question of the duration of these mutagenic spike proteins is indeed very salient.

         
  18. lordkoos

    I wonder if the reason there are more women reporting (apart from the sex-specific reproductive issues) is that women in general may be more sensitive and in touch with their bodies than men. It could be likely that men try to “power through” their symptoms and not report them unless they become very serious.

     
  19. NSA_ID #1734519XZ2

    After my second dose of Pfizer, within 10 days I developed enthesitis in my knee (patellar tendon). Went from being a very good runner and triathlete, to not being able to run at all. It doesn’t heal, and flares up with even moderate exercise. I was suspicious that it was a vaccine injury, perhaps related to psoriatic arthritis, then subsequently saw a study about enthesitis as a Covid side-effect. So pretty sure they are related.

    After my booster I also got tachycardia, and had elevated d-dimer and had to see a cardiologist.

    None of this is documented. And I know several other people with significant unreported side effects.

    Criminal fraud. I want to see some folks in jail. But I’m not holding my breath. (And yes I was very aware during the financial crisis and it’s aftermath.)

     
    1. Ike

      People are played russian roulettes with their bodies and health. Pulling the trigger with each injection of the booster they allow into their body.

       
  20. Willem

    Father of a friend died about a month ago. Fully vaccinated I believe (the whole family) a few months after this he has a mild stroke. Daughter drives him to the hospital where has seizures and a heart attack during a four hour wait before they move him to the IC and he’s put in a coma for the next 50 days. Wakes up with a lot of damage … A few days later his daughter gets the call that he died. Cause: herpes infection in the brain. I just knew that vaccination had something to do with it. Sure enough quite a lot of case reports post vaccination. This was weeks ago. Yesterday I saw these pages. My eye caught a few dozen mentions of herpes … encephelatis …. anyway. He was a kind man. They lost him and they don’t have any clue as to why. I have quite a few of those anecdotes. Look up theysayitsrare on instagram.

     
  21. Yves Smith

    You are ignoring that IM Doc has seen precisely this sort of report from 15 years of being on the board of an IRB, which oversees drug trials. He’s never seen anything like this.

Many days later...

Mikel

“Some hospitals ask patients, visitors to remove N95s, citing CDC”

They’ve lost their minds. Hospitals and clinics are exactly where the people with co-morbidities go.
What the hell???

So hospitals and climics become ground zero for the spread of disease.
This is a whole new level of psychotic.

All I can ask now is who do they think they are killing? And why does it make them feel so good?
HOSPITALS? NO MASKS? And waves of covid sick people still showing up at…Hospitals.

 
  1. IM Doc

    There are days when I see all this going on around me that I just want to assume the fetal position.

    There are extreme consequences to turning over your health care system to MBAs. They care far more about good satisfaction surveys than patient outcomes. I am most definitely not kidding, this is not snark.

antidlc

Also, from my post in today’s LINKS:

So Jha is the new covid response guy.

Check this out:
CDC announces the new mask guidelines on Feb. 25:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/cdc-relaxes-mask-guidance-allowing-most-people-to-ditch-masks-if-hospitalizations-remain-low.html

On the SAME DAY, an opinion piece by Jha appears in the NY Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/opinion/cdc-covid-guidelines.html
We’ve Entered a New Phase of the Pandemic. It’s Time for New Metrics.

If the opinion piece appeared on Feb. 25, then Jha would have submitted it prior to Feb. 25, the date of publication. So…he knew about the guidelines ahead of time, right?

(h/t to Justin Feldman)
https://twitter.com/jfeldman_epi/status/1497425778287468548

Anyone find it weird that a public health dean wrote about these policies approvingly before they were even announced (given the publishing timeline) and then administration officials highlight it as evidence their own policies are supported by the scientific community?

 
  1. IM Doc

    You should have heard my conversation with another prominent public health dean today about this appointment.

    The frequent use of 4 letter words would have made George Carlin proud.

    There are many who for their own reasons are remaining silent in the public health community ( to their forever shame) who are very unhappy with the entire COVID situation and history. We will see how this all works out.

    As much as I have really thought Dr. Fauci and Dr. Walensky need to be cashiered after all the missteps and disasters, I have no doubt that it is very likely their replacements would be even more corrupt and problematic. Trust me, the well is deep.

    This move today just solidified my feelings in that regard.


NC quotes IM Doc on the same topic a day or two later:

And we are only going from bad to worse, with the downtrade to Brown’s Dr. Ashish K. Jha no doubt reflecting the official Administration posture that Covid is over. As IM Doc said by e-mail:

We have now replaced a lying corrupt Bond villain with a moronic cipher.

I cannot remember a single thing this man has been correct about.

And I will always remember the glee with which he pounced on the unvaxxed.

This is really bad news.

flora

Cholera? I remember back when the US had a public health department that aimed for Public Health.

an aside:

The Vindication of D.A. Henderson

“We should remember the man who called out this crazed ideology back in 2006. He is Donald A. Henderson, the world’s most important epidemiologist at the time. He had worked with the World Health Organization and is given primary credit for the eradication of smallpox. His book on the topic is a tour de force and a model of how a genuine public health official goes about his work. ”

https://brownstone.org/articles/the-vindication-of-d-h-henderson/

 
  1. IM Doc

    Flora,

    My father, a public health officer himself, was in the same generation as Dr. Henderson, and this piece took me back to many aspects of my childhood, listening to my father collaborate with genuine public health officials.

    My father has now gone on, just like Dr. Henderson. But I really wonder at times what those two and so many others would say right now. I can guarantee you they would not be very happy.

    Thank you for sharing this piece. The enclosed pdf at the end from 2006 is pretty much an encapsulation of what has been taught for generations regarding strategies in a respiratory viral pandemic. It is like the accumulated wisdom of centuries was just thrown out the window. And to our eternal shame, my profession just zipped their mouths as the few “heretics” out and around were burned at the stake. The day of reckoning will come soon enough.

    I have had the feeling since the beginning that no one with any knowledge, wisdom, or experience was in charge – or even in the conference room seated at the table. Our national response reminds me of young interns I have attended to in my life – all kinds of ideas to throw at the wall in a critical situation, but no ability to learn from mistakes. And absolutely no ability to change course suddenly when conditions change. And certainly no one in charge to exhibit wisdom and to be the calm in the storm.

    The most profoundly disturbing was the fact that anyone and everyone who just slightly deviated from the accepted narrative was tarnished, censored, bullied and threatened with their livelihood. WHETHER YOU AGREE WITH WHAT THEY ARE SAYING OR NOT, THE BEAUTY OF THIS COUNTRY IS WE ARE ALL FREE TO EXPRESS OUR OPINIONS. But that is not what happened. Painfully enough we have documentary evidence from Fauci and Collins of the plans to undermine anyone and everyone in their way. And God only knows what is in the redacted part. The word “redacted” alone is scary in this situation. That word should be used only in national security. Allowing redactions in public health is anathema to everything medicine should be standing for. The years that Fauci has been in charge will one day be remembered as some of the least edifying in my profession’s history – both now and during AIDS.

    And just like days past, in the fullness of time, these actions taken will be revealed, and instead of detestable heretics, many of these silenced people will be remembered as heroes.

    The invocation in the piece of Poe’s Masque of the Red Death was very sentimental for me – as this exact story was presented to me as a young medical student decades ago in Public Health 101 by an 82 year old professor. I will never forget his admonition in a very heavy German accent – “Always remember students, just like the prince in the castle, we think we can hide, but the contagion and more importantly the truth will always find us – and it will often find us right in the middle of our victory party.”

Lambert posted this
“Biden’s Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson refuses to define the word ‘woman’ because she’s ‘not a biologist’ as she is grilled on day two of her confirmation hearing” [Daily Mail]. “Quoting late Supreme Court judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Blackburn said: ‘Physical differences between men and women are enduring. The two sexes are not fungible. A community made up exclusively of one sex is different from a community composed of both.’ ‘Do you agree with Justice Ginsburg that there are physical differences between men and women that are enduring?’ the senator asked. When Jackson claimed she had never heard the quote, Blackburn asked directly: ‘Can you define the word ‘woman’?’ ‘Can I provide a definition?’ Jackson responded. ‘No, I can’t,’ she declared, before adding: ‘I’m not a biologist’. 

to which IM Doc replied:

IM Doc

For whatever reason, patients are opening up about political items of concern to them more than they ever have before. I feel at times like I am sitting on the barometer of the nation’s current zeitgeist.

This morning has been particularly illuminating. It has to do with Lambert’s above link about the Supreme Court nominee not being willing to discuss what is the definition of a woman.

Please note, these comments are being made to me unsolicited – the last thing I want to do is talk about politics with my patients. But both of these comments were made to me this AM by patients in my bright blue corner of the USA.

#1 – A 24 year old Latino soy boy man-bun wearing Bernie Bro. – “Who are these people trying to kid? – That woman is either a liar – or she just does not care about the truth – Believe me, I know what a woman is…..”

#2 – A 74 year old white female – former college professor in the humanities…..”What do you think, doctor, I for one am a bit taken back and confused……they have been forcefeeding me and my colleagues in the University for years that biology has absolutely nothing to do with gender identity – and yet when directly confronted with this issue, she falls back on biology. I think many of these people have no idea what is real and just say things they think are going to make them feel good. It makes me mad. So many excellent faculty resigned or were fired at my institution for trying to argue these facts from a biologic perspective. If they had been kept around to teach, maybe people like this poor woman would not be so confused. I wonder what all the women’s lib leaders of my youth would think about this? What has become of my Democratic party that such nonsense would be front and center in their issues?”

I just let people talk. I think people need a safe outlet to talk these days for their mental health. But unfortunately, I have no answers myself. I have thought the same things.

Again, it is absolutely unprecedented in my life how many people want to have small talk in their visit about politics. It used to be kids, vacations, etc – now it is all politics all the time. What have we done to ourselves?


Related to this:

“Harvesting the Blood of America’s Poor: The Latest Stage of Capitalism” [Mint Press]. “Teenager blood is in high demand in, of all places, Silicon Valley, where anti-aging technologies are the latest trend. One company, Ambrosia, charges $8,000 per treatment to aging tech executives, infusing them with the blood of the young, turning these individuals into bloodsuckers in more ways than one. Despite the fact that there is no clinical evidence that the practice has any beneficial effects, business is booming. One committed customer is PayPal co-founder turned Trump surrogate Peter Thiel, who is reportedly spending vast sums of money on funding anti-aging startups. Thiel claims that we have been conned by “the ideology of the inevitability of the death of every individual” and believes that his own immortality may be just around the corner, a notion that has deeply concerned academics and commentators alike.” • From 2019, still germane.


IM Doc replied
IM Doc

Harvesting the blood of America’s Poor – as linked above.

As wild as this sounds, I will attest to the fact that this is a very real phenomenon. I have one young athletic and healthy college student who is at a major coastal university. His entire tuition, lodging and food as well as a generous monthly stipend is provided by the billionaire. His only job is to show up every 2-3 weeks to remove a pint of blood. A pint of blood is then removed from the billionaire and the young jock’s blood is transfused. I do think the blood is appropriately tested on every transfusion as well – just as it would from the American Red Cross.

The young man is thrilled that his college is being covered this way – but is also concerned about long-term health issues for him. The whole situation is very sad….. And the issue is that this is not really a recognized process – so I am literally winging it with my monitoring of this patient.

There is not a shred of medical evidence I have found that shows this to be anti-aging at all. Furthermore, there is not really any medical guidance about the care of patients who are getting their blood removed like this over this long a term. Furthermore, there are many states that do not allow this type of thing to happen – and it may be a Medical Board issue for the responsible physician. Of course, in this instance, we are talking about California – which has in the past few decades become an “anything allowed – the crazier the better” state with regard to its biomedical ethics. But other states like Massachusetts and New York and New Jersey are not that far behind.

As I asked my ethics colleagues a few months back – Can anyone explain to me how this is any different than vampirism? Just as Bram Stoker satirized the mores of Victorian England with Dracula – there has got to be a clever writer/observer out there who could throw a haymaker with this practice.

What a commentary of a profoundly disturbed culture.

The moral decadence at times is just overwhelming.


My, my, my, how Yves's tone has changed since the early days:

  1. Kathleen Skeels

    I assume that China’s vaccine is not very effective and therefor they are having more trouble controlling Covid infections?

     
    1. Yves Smith

      Our vaccines do not control infections. You’ve clearly bought into official propaganda. They at most reduce the incidence of severe outcomes.

      And Omicron and BA.2 largely escape them. From IM Doc yesterday on what he is sure is a spike in BA.2 cases:

      17 patients in ER and on the phone so far. All vaccinated and 11 boosted. No unvaxxed. No J&J, though to be fair, that was only about 4% of our vaccines here. 7 of them reportedly had Omicron during the holidays. All are pissed. The vaccine failure displeasure is really beginning to shine. No admissions as of this afternoon.

      The obvious different issue – this appears somewhat worse than Nov-Jan Omicron and the GI symptoms are much more common. Lots of intractable diarrhea and vomiting.

      In the long run, that may greatly intensify admissions if that remains a problem. Dehydration and not eating always makes admissions more likely especially in the elderly and diabetics.

      I do not have a good feeling about this.

      Did you miss that Shanghai locked down mainly over asymptomatic cases, something we don’t even worry about in the West?

      As for the efficacy of China’s vaccines, we’ve made a point of trashing them in the press, when in fact their efficacy at the only thing we measured and publicized, efficacy v. hospitalization, is comparable to the Astra Zeneca two shot regime. China also publicized its data on how its vaccines performed v. preventing infections (IRC only a bit over 50%) and we rubbished them on that, when there’s no evidence ours do one iota better based on that metric.

This post is probably worth reading, though I won't post it here because IM Doc isn't particularly present (a comment follows the link, though):

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/03/the-covid-data-is-making-me-queasy-and-cdc-changes-and-reform-proposals-arent-helping-me-any.html

IM Doc

I used to share this quote with my students all the time – and I will share it now with everyone here – it is a very simple quote – but is absolutely true –

‘When a doctor does go wrong, he is the first of criminals. He has the nerve and he has the knowledge.’

Sherlock Holmes
The Adventure of the Speckled Band
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
The Strand Magazine
February 1892

    1. anniemoose

      antildlc
      March 29, 2022 at 9:12 am
      985 US COVID deaths “tolerated” yesterday.

      A considerable portion of the population rejects all measures concerning Covid 19. What are your suggestions to solve this problem.

       
      1. John Beech

        As usual, education.

        For example, 30-second television spots of;

        1. Lebron James talks about protecting his grandmother for why he got the jab. Ditto other big name athletes.

        2. Gwen Stefanni or any of many singers doing same, e.g. Blake Shelton, Rhianna, Puff Daddy, Snoop Dog, Madonna, Guns N Roses, etc.

        3. Any of many ministers about how being selfish puts others in the congregation at risk as they roll up their sleeve.

        4. Random woman taking the jab explaining her pal is battling breast cancer and she doesn’t want to put her at more risk.

        5. A few Joe 6-pack types talking about how good old Glenn was laid to rest when C19 ran rampant through their plant for why he’s getting the jab.

        6. POTUS stripping off his coat and rolling up his sleeve on national television for protecting staffers around him on why he’s getting the jab.

        7. Expectant mom taking it explaining why it’ll protect her unborn child.

        8. Older adult taking the jab and explaining they want to be able to hug their immuno-compromised granddaughter.

        . . . I can think of example after example all day long! Bottom line? We have the means to motivate folks to do this. We have just totally failed in the arena of leadership skills to move the needle vice the difference between ‘my rights’ versus responsibility to country and fellow citizens.

        How to pay for it? Auction off the sponsorship of these spots in exchange for a tiny logo in the lower right hand corner of the screen. They’ll line up around the block to pay for this.

         
        1. gepay

          How is getting vaccinated with a jab that doesn’t stop infection going to help anything? Even the CDC admits it is not effective at stopping transmission. Is my memory wrong in thinking it was promoted as being 95% effective as well as safe?

           
          1. ambrit

            I have taken to refering to this sort of behaviour as “Kabuki Medicine.”
            As with bureaucracies the world over, being seen to be “doing something” is just as important as actually being effective at the task.
            As good old Shakespeare said: “The Play’s the thing.”

             
        2. IM Doc

          And what do I tell all my patients and their families who have been vaccinated – and/or boosted – but have either died of COVID or who have quite severe complications…..
          The number of them is way more than trivial.

          What do I tell all their neighbors and fellow town members who come in and use them as examples as to why they should not be vaccinated?

          What do I tell the scores of current patients who are vaccinated/boosted – and they thought they were safe to go to parties, etc and still get infected and or hospitalized? I notice you conveniently do not say a word about non-pharmaceutical intervention in your reply.

          I am actually getting very frustrated with the whole thing. Thinking like you describe in your reply is actually quite dangerous in the environment of a vaccine only strategy and a non-sterilizing vaccine. And the other problem with your list of examples above is THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WAS DONE FOR THE FIRST 6 MONTHS IN THIS VACCINATION DRIVE. My Facebook feed was filled with celebs and doctors and God knows who else taking the vaccine.

          Nothing like this happens with polio or measles vaccines because they are actually sterilizing.

          As I have said from the very very beginning – there are extreme consequences of putting a non-sterilizing vaccine out into the general population but selling it as 95% effective in PREVENTING infection. THAT IS STILL ON THE INFORMED CONSENT DOCUMENTS.

          The entire reputation of the health care system is at stake. And stupid human tricks as you list out above are just not going to persuade anyone at this late date when all have seen how completely ineffective this current group of vaccines is in ending transmission.

Del

“Effect of Early Treatment with Ivermectin among Patients with Covid-19”
=
“We gave nutritious food to people with stage three cancer and it didn’t work!”

Ivermectin is a prophylactic, taken ahead of infection, along with vitamins and minerals.

Big Pharma will lie, cheat and steal lives to downplay inexpensive, out of patent drugs.
i.e. The Annals of Dermatology and Venereology reported that in a French nursing home, all 69 residents—average age 90—and 52 staff survived a COVID-19 outbreak.16,17 As it turns out, they had all taken ivermectin for a scabies infestation. COVID decimated the surrounding community, but only seven elder home residents and four staff were affected, and all had mild illness. None required oxygen or hospitalization. 17 C. Bernigaud et al., “Ivermectin benefit: from scabies to COVID-19, an example of serendipity,” Annals of Dermatology and Venereology (December, 2020), https://c19ivermectin.com/bernigaud.html

 
  1. Basil Pesto

    Ivermectin is a prophylactic

    Sorry but no, it has often been advocated by its devotees as a treatment post-diagnosis (within a short timeframe, similar to Paxlovid) over the past year as well as as a prophylactic. To that end, I believe many NC readers have been using it as such, and if I recall correctly, IM Doc has been monitoring its clinical performance in his own practice when used in this capacity, not when used as a prophylactic.

    There are no vitamins or minerals with proven efficacy as a prophylactic against C19. If anyone thinks, for example, that Vitamin D is a prophylactic against C19, this recent study would appear to cast serious doubt on that: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.22.22271707v1 . I take Vit D myself, in the hope (and it is merely a hope) that it will lead to improved outcomes in the event of SARS2 infection.

     
    1. JBird4049

      The problem shown here is the lack of trust that the medical community and Big Pharma have earned. Ivermectin might have a limited effect or be useless, but how can we trust what they say? The studies that they have done in the recent past seem to be flawed in someway or other. Then the constant screaming about horse paste, the gaucheness of taking it, or the horrors of Ivermectin without actually saying what the problem might be.

      It is almost like the story of the boy who cried wolf. If this new study is honest and does show the ineffectiveness of the drug, why would people trust it?

       
  2. Maritimer

    That study specifically states:

    “Inclusion criteria were an age of 18 years or older; presentation to an outpatient care setting with an acute clinical condition consistent with Covid-19 within 7 days after symptom onset;”

    Dr. Peter McCullouch an expert Covid clinician had stressed over and over and over again that you must prevent and then, if infected, treat early, early, early. “7 days after symptom onset;” or even 2 days would send Dr. McCullouch ballistic. See FLCCC.

    And even now, in my humble jurisdiction where Dark Ages Medicine is practiced, the protocol for Covid is no prophylaxis. Then if you test positive, stay home until you get sick and then come to the hospital.

     
      1. truly

        The Reis study talked about here shows that even when IV is used late it can cut mortality by 12%.
        Someone check my math but I think that would have been 120 lives saved yesterday alone. In the U.S.
        What a death cult this country has become that saving 120 lives isn’t worth considering.

         
    1. whatidontknowisalot

      I for one am looking forward to IM Doc analysis of this.
      You mention the 7 days part. But there were protocol changes too that raise eyebrows. One was that if vaccinated you were to be excluded. that was later dropped but we don’t get to see vaccination status…odd to say the least. The other was ; no use of Zinc. All IVM protocls use zinc.
      third was; widespread use of IVM in that community: also not really assessed.

       
    2. Yves Smith

      From IM Doc via e-mail:

      Thiis is the exact study that came out in preprint in the fall last year.

      It was literally laughed off the stage during its presentation – and these were ivermectin skeptics doing the laughing.

      I remember one comment in particular – “If they are going to put this down – they are going to have to do much better than this This is a joke.”

      There are 2 method problems – that are so overwhelming as to completely invalidate the study.

      Firstly – Ivermectin is widely available over the counter in Brazil where this study was conducted. Not only that, at the time of the study and continuing today, it is part of the infection pack provided by the government. So, ivermectin is being widely taken in the population. And yet, somehow, there was no effort to have any kind of exclusion criteria from the study for those already taking IVM. NONE. Therefore, it is very likely that large numbers of the “placebo” or control arm were literally on IVM as well during the study which would instantly negate any conclusions.

      The likelihood of this outcome brings me to point #2 – If you look at the tables – you can see there was a literal 40% drop out of subjects from the placebo arm. It goes completely unexplained in the study. As an IRB veteran – that is an instant red flag. It is very unlikely any such problematic issue as this would have allowed patient recruitment in any IRB I have ever been on. The investigators must discuss why they think this is happening……and the most likely reason is the study was not blinded properly – and the subjects knew they were on a placebo and went back on their IVM government pack or whatever. Again – it is not even bothered to be discussed. THIS IS WHAT THE ENTIRE REASON FOR PEER REVIEW IS THERE FOR.

      Again, this is so flawed – it was literally laughed out of the room by IVM skeptics last fall. To see it published in NEJM is just icing on the cake. It is yet another example of the profound influence of Big Pharma dollars on this entire profession.

      This is now all over the news as THE END for IVM. When it is such a flawed study that nothing can be assumed from the conclusions. I am literally ashamed of the members of my profession – they are asking no hard questions at all.

      It does not help that one of the sponsors of this study is the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. What incentive could they have to purposefully torpedo IVM? Which is basically what this is.

      This is Fauci’s tried and true handiwork – to purposefully engineer studies to make things look bad. He is also very good at purposefully engineering studies to make things look much better than they are – like REMDESEVIR.

      This is EVIDENCE BASED MEDICINE at work – just like Big Pharma wants it. And those of us who have worked in the ethical research organizations such as IRBs for decades are just shaking our heads this AM.










temporaryreality: (Default)
 IM Doc

My two cents into this situation.

I think I have made myself abundantly clear about the vaccine mandates in the past. There is no place in medical ethics for coercing any therapy that has not been completely vetted. There is simply no way to do informed consent on these vaccines – the risk cannot be appropriately ascertained and the efficacy certainly is not turning out to be as promised. There is no public health benefit whatsoever with the vaccines as they are right now.

And unfortunately in the fullness of time, I am seeing more and more rather severe problems with the vaccines. It is certainly enough to give me pause. Some of these issues are happening in people who were coerced and threatened with unemployment.

This is an honest question coming from me who was raised by LBJ New Deal Dems all my life — Has anyone thought to wonder why the working man in the past few years seems to be increasingly disgusted by the Dems – and headed to the GOP? —– These truckers are exactly the core consituency of the Dem Party that I grew up in….I do not know a single working class person in my world that wants to have anything to do with the Dems any more. I think that is a core problem that they need to be asking themselves. Can they have a winning majority with the PMC and the WOKE and the coastal elite? They are rapidly becoming just that.

And as I have repeatedly said – the amount of intense and backfiring results these vaccine mandates have had on young American workers I am going to predict will change the political landscape of this country for the next decades. In my office daily is a tidal wave of young kids openly verbalizing to their PCP that they will never support the Dems again. Yes, it is that bad. I have never experienced anything like this in my life. I have never had this level of political discussion in my office in my life. And completely unsolicited from me. I now am seeing large numbers of young Latino men coming in the office with FJB or LGB T-shirts or bling. Unprecedented. Especially in my blue area.

This trucker issue is just one manifestation of this whole phenomenon. I am sure we will be seeing more.

I could not and cannot believe the Dems put their chips on the table with this kind of vaccine mandate. Literally instant revulsion by huge segments of their previous base. It is probably one of the single most stupid political moves I have ever seen in my life.
 

    1. Amfortas the hippie

      We were the Third Phase Trials.

      the general population.
      the unvaxxed…however they got there…were the Control Group.

      Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        That would make a god t-shirt design. Like with “Security” and “Event” signage, a flourescent coloured vest with a big, bold, “Control” on the back. Then maybe some Biohazard symbols on the shoulders.
        I’m waiting for someone “official” to suggest that the Unvaxxed be made to wear coloured stars on their cloths, “for public safety,” of course.
        “Unclean! Unclean!” *Rings bell piteously.*

        Reply ↓
  1. cocomaan

    What’s interesting about the full FDA approval is that you cannot get the FDA approved drugs yet. If you ask for cominarty or however you spell it, you won’t find it.

    Reply ↓
  2. IM Doc

    So please inform us all when the two approved vaccinations will be available in the USA –

    The approved Pfizer vaccination is called Comrniaty – the approved Moderna vaccination is called Spikevax.

    Neither is available nor being used here in the USA. We are still only using the EUA authorized versions. The vaccinees are still being forced to sign a document stating that this is experimental and being used under an EUA. THE EXPERIMENTAL VERSIONS ARE THE ONLY ONES BEING USED HERE IN THE USA.

    Yes – the two products have been approved by the FDA. However, those two approved formulations are not being used in the USA nor are there any plans to do so in the near future. Once they do use the approved products in the USA – several things will happen. First of all – a complete disclosure of all side effects will have to be done on any and all advertising including PSAs – just like all other approved therapeutics. Secondly, stringent side effect monitoring will have to begin and have to be reported to the public just like every other approved therapeutic. And like all other approved therapeutics, things like black box warnings may become a reality for these injections. Thirdly, there are all kinds of hoops that will need to be traversed with actually approved meds when kids and vaccination schedules are involved. This is not the case under an EUA. So they are just not going to provide the approved vaccines now or in the conceivable future. And our FDA is just ok with this – and our media has not said a peep.

    No one ever said that Big Pharma was not well versed in bamboozlement.

    Is there any difference between the EUA and the approved formulations? – well – maybe – maybe not. I have heard multiple stories in conferences. Unfortunately, much of this information is proprietary.

    So – ABSOLUTELY NOT – the vaccines still being given today are EUA only – we have yet to give a single approved COVID vaccine in the USA outside of research.

    Reply ↓
    1. fool's idol

      I hesitate to contradict you given your credentials and regard here, but the claim that Comirnaty (the approved Pfizer COVID vaccine, versus the EUA “version”) is not available in the US has been examined by several news sources, and all that I have found say it is false.

      * Here is USA today (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/10/20/fact-check-comirnaty-pfizers-fda-approved-vaccine-available-us/8538861002/)
      * Here is Politifact (https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/oct/05/ron-johnson/johnson-incorrectly-claims-there-are-no-approved-c/)
      * Here is Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-ron-johnson-us-does-not-have-approved-comirnaty-pfizer-vaccine-1636455)

      They all claim its falsehood, and that the pre- and post-approval formulations are identical, on the authority of CDC, FDA, or Pfizer sources, of course, and so if you are inclined to distrust those sources you may not find this convincing.

      The Newsweek piece also, however, explains why some patients receiving Pfizer doses after the FDA approval date are required to sign an EUA – they are receiving doses manufactured before the approval.

      My anecdotal experience is consistent with this explanation: when I received a booster dose in January 2022, I was not required to sign an EUA – the dose I received was manufactured in November 2021. (I was required to sign an EUA for the first two doses in mid-2021.)

      Reply ↓
      1. Yves Smith

        The formula being identical does not mean that Pfizer distributing the vaccines made under the EUA an experimental vaccine. It may seem like a technical distinction but in fact if the vaccine being sold is not Comity, it is sold only under the EUA. My old attorney was an FDA specialist; many of her partners were FDA commissioners. She and they would object to the claim in the articles, which effectively take the position that the approval is retroactive. It isn’t. Any Pfizer vaccines made before the approval are sold pursuant to the EUA.

        Reply ↓
        1. fool's idol

          That is not what I took away from the articles, so I’m surprised to hear you say that. The Newsweek article, in particular, says “Chris Beyrer, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told The Washington Post in August that Pfizer COVID vaccines made before the approval could not legally be given Comirnaty branding, even when they are exactly the same.” It then goes on, as I said above, to explain that this legal distinction is why some patients have to sign EUAs even after approval.

          So the article does make the distinction you point out, and I see nothing in any of them to suggest a claim of any “retroactive” effect – precisely the opposite. It is the legal (but not chemical) difference between doses manufactured under the EUA and doses manufactured after full FDA approval that is being highlighted.

          Reply ↓
          1. Yves Smith

            This is separate from the point that the approval was clearly rushed. No major drug has been approved this quickly. Even STAT cleared its throat about the virtual lack of a statistical review for the EUA, let along the normal process of checking that everyone in the trial existed and their demographics, medical history, and results are accurate. There is no evidence more was done for the full approval.

            Reply ↓
      2. IM Doc

        I would ask anyone out there in the USA who are getting vaccines or boosters – to take a photo of the bottles and lot numbers and submit them to Yves if they are given the actual approved products Comrinaty or Spikevax. I too would like to know if the approved products are actually being used. They certainly are not where I am.

        Unfortunately, if your vaccine center gave you an EUA booster and did not give you a form to fill out, they are taking on quite a legal risk. It should say on your card if you were given Comrinaty or not – if it does not say that – you were not given the approved product. If it does – I would urge you to forward that to Yves – in an email – again – it would be comforting to me to see that these approved vaccinations have been started to be given. So far neither myself, anyone in my community, nor anyone among my extensive contact email list all over the country has seen it being done.

        I am sorry – but none of the three sources you cite have shone themselves with glory the past 2 years as far as the pandemic has gone. Especially politifact. If I recall correctly – they were the cludgel being used to ban people from Twitter and Facebook for pointing out the vaccines were non-sterilizing. But if anyone out there can confirm they were given these approved products with lot numbers, I for one would be relieved.

        As someone who chaired an IRB for a very long time, any attempt to pass off or use a medication manufactured during testing or research or now an EUA phase as an approved med would be met almost assuredly with severe consequences from the IRB and maybe the law.

        There is no such thing as retroactive approval.

Direct from the NC post:

An Undiscovered Coronavirus? The Mystery of the ‘Russian Flu’ New York Times (Kevin W). How long has IM Doc been talking about this? At least a year?

Cannabidiol Inhibits SARS-CoV-2 Replication and Promotes the Host Innate Immune Response NCBI. Igancio and KLG regard this as promising, the study is careful. IM Doc is skeptical based on the number of perma stoned ski bums he has seen with acute Covid. Ignacio retorts that the study used only one specific cannabinoid; the others played no role.

Just An Analog Girl

I live in Kansas City. For the last couple of days, I’ve seen a TV commercial showing serious physician from local medical facility, looking straight into camera, wearing white coat, saying:

“Getting vaxx’d is your best “shot” at preventing long covid”.

Hmm.

Reply ↓
    1. IM Doc

      Really? –
      Of what evidence do you speak?

      I have my own large cohort of fully vaccinated and boosted patients who are struggling with long-COVID symptoms exactly as the unvaccinated are.
      I can literally tell no difference.

      We just have no idea at this point how extensive this will be. To say otherwise or to suggest that we know for sure what vaccines will do is just a knowing lie. Again – my patients seem to paint a different story. I have to deal with what is directly in front of me – not what some largely manipulated statistics are being pumped in the media today.

      Reply ↓
        1. Basil Pesto

          It’s not quite right to say this though. For example I read two stories about LC just yesterday from bloomberg and CBS. It’s just that they’re almost reported like quaint and remote human interest stories instead of as an alarm bell.

          Where it *doesn’t* come up is in the op-eds, whether of the freedom-lords or committed ‘covid centrists’, or the “urgency of normal” drama queens.

          Reply ↓
And more from the NC post:

I hate wading into this: Efficacy of Ivermectin Treatment on Disease Progression Among Adults With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 and Comorbidities JAMA

Versus:

CNN vs Ivermectin Igor Chudov

The new 1טeרmEכזiה paper proves it works. Jessica Rose

And IM Doc:

At the conference I attended this AM – this JAMA paper was brought up – and the conclusion was – maybe we had better look into this – this seems to have some effect.

If I read correctly – and please correct me if I am wrong – I am very tired – and may have missed something :

52 patients on IVM and 43 in the placebo group progressed to a severe form. OK. What is a severe form, what does that mean in the context of looking at the IMPORTANT data points? TO WIT: 4 ventilated in the IVM group, 10 in the placebo. 6 admissions in IS in the IVM group, 8 in the placebo. 3 deaths in the IVM group, 10 in the placebo.

So EVERYONE is concentrating on the fact that these already sick patients – IVERMECTIN had more that progressed to the sick form than placebo. “Progressing to the sick form” is always rather squishy and very subjective.

In the 3 endpoints that I care about as a practicing physician – ending up on a ventilator, admission, and death- IVM did way better than placebo. If we use relative risk reduction as PHARMA and the NEJM lavished on the vaccines – ventilation and death were both higher than 70% and admission higher than 50….Please remember – the vaccines are still touted as highly effective with RRV of SYMPTOMS now in the 20% range.

Again, the ID fellow left the audience today with the conclusion that this may really be beneficial – but here we are debating headlines again in our national media. NO ONE IS ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT THE UNDERLYING DATA POINTS – JUST THE HEADLINES.

I am really sick and tired of this game. FFS – it has an incredible safety profile – it is cheap – and it has the above efficacy numbers for admissions, ventilations, and death. And yet – the press is still screaming IVM is dead – and this proves it. IT FAILED TO PREVENT THE SEVERE FORM – whatever that means. According to the clinical endpoints, it is certainly more helpful than Remdesevir. This study seems to suggest that it is a valuable tool to be used – certainly better than what we have available now. This study makes me want to use it more ——-

  1. IM Doc

    I must apologize – the email I wrote yesterday was quite a mess. As my granddad used to say – “A tired body can be cured with sleep. There is no cure for a tired soul.” I have a very tired soul – but I now have had some sleep. I really do not express myself clearly when I am tired.

    First of all – this study is NOT the way I have ever used this drug. I have used it for people who are still outpatients to keep them out of the hospital. It has worked well for that in the past – and continues to do so. This study is composed of patients who are already in the hospital being admitted. When I say “admission” above – it means admission to the ICU. So the primary endpoint of preventing severe outcomes seems to disfavor the drug – while each of the very specific secondary endpoints of ventilation, ICU admission or death show great benefit. The death endpoint in particular was quite striking.

    I have now had time to look online for trusted sources – and also really talk this through with multiple colleagues. None of us ever recall having the authors of a paper subvert very positive outcomes like this. I have talked to no one who thinks this is not very important – yet another positive signal among the fog. Because of the very low case fatality rate, this study is underpowered ( p levels), however, the endpoint numbers are so dramatic that it does make one pause. I am not alone. The following tweet is from one of the very best doctors Twitter has to offer referring to the same conundrum I point out above – https://twitter.com/drjohnm/status/1494863366883618818

    At times like this, I have often had my students take in the caduceus – the two snakes wrapped around a rod that is the symbol of medicine. One interpretation of this symbol is the constant battle between science and art in my profession. We live in a world today that seems to put value only on “science” but that is completely anathema to generations of medical wisdom. There was a time when physicians used the science but also used the art to weave their way through very confusing situations.

    We are in a situation where there are no sure answers and will not be for a very long time. We are in a situation where people are dying. We have this paper and so many many others that seem to show varying degrees of benefit of this drug. It is about the safest drug in the world. It is dirt cheap. This study is showing that there was a RRR of 70% in this cohort of preventing death. The evidence is stating that 7 out of the 240 or so patients in this trial DID NOT DIE on the drug arm – It may have saved 7 lives.

    What on earth has become of us? What exactly are we doing? What are doctors even here for? This study makes me feel that this drug should be given to every single patient admitted to the hospital with COVID. GO AHEAD and do all the other CDC sanctioned stuff – but what is wrong with just adding this along with everything else? It is going to hurt no one and based on this data may very well save lives.

    There was a day not long ago in my profession where with the data we have now – this would never have been questioned…..but here we are. It is hard to understand for lay people, but doctors use agents all day every day for all kinds of reasons that have the flimsiest of evidence behind them. Much less than this drug. And yet, all of a sudden, we balk right now. Not just balk but actually punish the evil-doers. My profession has spent the past 2 decades pushing for emergency end-of-life use for many agents ( many of which would be equal to IV Drano in safety) and have been very successful. But now – on one of the world’s safest drugs – and very sick patients – this is happening?

    Again – what is wrong with us….

IM Doc

A little bit of history –

When America first found out about AIDS – it was from the MMWR – Mortality & Morbidity Weekly Report – that has been published by the CDC for decades. This was also the tabulation source during the AIDS crisis of all of the other issues going on from PCP pneumonia to toxoplasma of the brain to all the cancers going on in AIDS patients. The CDC was all over it. The same can be said of ZIKA, West Nile Virus, and countless others. Our CDC was the envy of the world. They worked in total transparency and published all their numbers very quickly.

It is important to note how vitally important that information was for clinicians on the ground during AIDS. It gave us some kind of perspective on problems, their prevalence, and sharing treatment ideas.

This has been one of the most notable failures of the CDC this time – the MMWR may as well be parrot cage liner. They have not been sharing complete information from the beginning about hospitalizations, deaths, vaccine issues, you name it.

For those of us who are veterans – it has been a striking difference. And the tragedy is Dr. Walensky was so vocal early on about how she was going to work on getting the statistics and epidemiologic wings of the CDC up to their former glory.

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The entirety of an NC post:
 

“Just Scandalous”: CDC Withholding Most of the Covid Data It Gathers. What Is It Trying to Hide?

Even very politically seasoned and jaded contacts are gobsmacked by the New York Times’ revelation that the CDC is not releasing most of the data it collects. As we’ll discuss shortly, this is dramatic change from the agency’s posture in previous outbreaks. And the disappeared info includes types it published earlier in the pandemic.

However, this isn’t news to our Covid brain trust. GM has been pointing out for months about how quite a few states have been playing games with their reporting, such as periodic catch up dumps, going from daily to weekly, and sometimes reports that don’t seem plausible. IM Doc described how the CDC has abandoned its role of advising practitioners on emerging symptoms and patterns of disease progress, along with local data failures which mean national one.1

It’s disappointing that the Grey Lady failed to take the obvious next step of filing a FOIA for the apparently-to-hot-to-handle details. Since the CDC has published precisely this sort of information in the past, it would not seem to have a leg to stand on faced with a legal challenge.

Key sections from the article:

For more than a year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has collected data on hospitalizations for Covid-19 in the United States and broken it down by age, race and vaccination status. But it has not made most of the information public.

When the C.D.C. published the first significant data on the effectiveness of boosters in adults younger than 65 two weeks ago, it left out the numbers for a huge portion of that population: 18- to 49-year-olds, the group least likely to benefit from extra shots, because the first two doses already left them well-protected.

The agency recently debuted a dashboard of wastewater data on its website that will be updated daily and might provide early signals of an oncoming surge of Covid cases. Some states and localities had been sharing wastewater information with the agency since the start of the pandemic, but it had never before released those findings.

Two full years into the pandemic, the agency leading the country’s response to the public health emergency has published only a tiny fraction of the data it has collected, several people familiar with the data said.

Much of the withheld information could help state and local health officials better target their efforts to bring the virus under control. Detailed, timely data on hospitalizations by age and race would help health officials identify and help the populations at highest risk. Information on hospitalizations and death by age and vaccination status would have helped inform whether healthy adults needed booster shots. And wastewater surveillance across the nation would spot outbreaks and emerging variants early….

The performance of vaccines and boosters, particularly in younger adults, is among the most glaring omissions in data the C.D.C. has made public.

Last year, the agency repeatedly came under fire for not tracking so-called breakthrough infections in vaccinated Americans, and focusing only on individuals who became ill enough to be hospitalized or die. The agency presented that information as risk comparisons with unvaccinated adults, rather than provide timely snapshots of hospitalized patients stratified by age, sex, race and vaccination status..

If you see the second part of the footnote at the end of this post, the CDC does not in fact have accurate data on vaccinated v. unvaccinated status. It is entirely absent in IM Doc’s state. He is listed as unvaccinated (the apparent default) despite multiple attempts to get his record corrected. He also has many Covid patients in his hospital listed as unvaccinated who were in fact vaccinated and in some cases boosted. I can’t think his state is the only one.

It sure looks like the CDC thinks its just fine to give doctors and the public the mushroom treatment in the interest of narrative control and shielding the CDC from criticism when its information quality is poor. But unpleasant truths, like the much-shorter-than-hoped duration of vaccine-induced immunity, has gotten through anyhow thanks to reporting from countries that are competent at data collection, such as Israel. The article offers other excuses, like “The public might misuse the information!” and “The info from states isn’t always so hot.” Re the latter, gee, why weren’t you offering to help? Last I checked, the CDC has 32,000 employees. Surely a few could be tasked to help out particular states?

The article points out that the CDC has data for only 10% (of adults?) and it uses this sort of sampling for influenza data. But what kind of sampling methodology omits an entire state?

The reality is that the officials don’t like what the data shows. As GM has repeatedly pointed out, after 10 weeks, the efficacy of boosters even against serious cases drops to below 50%, which is too low a level to be very protective. Yet the European Medicines agency has advised against multiple boosters in a year due to the risk of overtaxing the immune system.

The CDC and FDA have backed themselves in a corner by recommending only vaccines as a Covid defense and continuing to depict masks as an imposition that is necessary only in surges. So data that shows that the vaccines are not terribly effective against Omicron and Omicron BA.2, by admitting that there are vaccinated and boosted individuals who wound up in the hospital, is something they can’t afford to acknowledge. So instead they have pre-positioned the blame cannons so that pointing out the (now considerable under new variants) limitations of the vaccines is smeared as being anti-vaxx.

Then we have patently ridiculous statements like this:

Relying on Israeli data to make booster recommendations for Americans was less than ideal, Dr. Offit noted. Israel defines severe disease differently than the United States, among other factors.

“There’s no reason that they should be better at collecting and putting forth data than we were,” Dr. Offit said of Israeli scientists. “The C.D.C. is the principal epidemiological agency in this country, and so you would like to think the data came from them.”

Huh? First, Israel is a country of nine million people with universal health coverage, even of permanent residents. So they have centralized data gathering. The US has the primary responsibility for public health at the state level. Second, in the US, health care is about money, not health. I was shocked at how long it took my mother, me, and our aide to get vaccinated because the pharmacy had trouble working out how to bill for my shot, and even more so for my mother’s. So why should we be any good at health metrics when that isn’t a priority?

Yet they have the temerity to call themselves “the premier public health agency in the world.” The CDC is running on brand fumes. As IM Doc noted about this story in comments yesterday:

A little bit of history –

When America first found out about AIDS – it was from the MMWR – Mortality & Morbidity Weekly Report – that has been published by the CDC for decades. This was also the tabulation source during the AIDS crisis of all of the other issues going on from PCP pneumonia to toxoplasma of the brain to all the cancers going on in AIDS patients. The CDC was all over it. The same can be said of ZIKA, West Nile Virus, and countless others. Our CDC was the envy of the world. They worked in total transparency and published all their numbers very quickly.

It is important to note how vitally important that information was for clinicians on the ground during AIDS. It gave us some kind of perspective on problems, their prevalence, and sharing treatment ideas.

This has been one of the most notable failures of the CDC this time – the MMWR may as well be parrot cage liner. They have not been sharing complete information from the beginning about hospitalizations, deaths, vaccine issues, you name it.

For those of us who are veterans – it has been a striking difference. And the tragedy is Dr. Walensky was so vocal early on about how she was going to work on getting the statistics and epidemiologic wings of the CDC up to their former glory.

And from scientist GM:

No surprise whatsoever, other than that this is even discussed in the NYT.

How many vaccinated people are dying is a closely guarded secret at the federal level, and only a few states are releasing that information locally.

I met someone recently who works in the tech world doing quite advanced stuff, and he genuinely thought that 99% of the people who are dying are unvaccinated.

In reality for very recent time periods (i.e. deep into the Omicron wave) I have only seen numbers for Israel, UK, WA, and MA and the majority of people dying now, 50% to 80%, are in fact vaccinated.

But even quite highly educated people who are not following things closely are completely delusional about the situation. Partly because the propaganda has worked very well, partly because their critical thinking skills are apparently not very well developed, because alarms should be immediately ringing in one’s mind when he sees all the double and triple vaxxed people in their 20s and 30s getting absolutely hammered by Omicron all around him and yet the claims are that nobody vaccinated is dying. That is simply impossible from first principles — VE [vaccine effectiveness] went down the drain even with respect to quite nasty illness in young healthy people, but somehow it is still at 99% against death in the elderly with serious comorbidities? That is just absurd…

The problem is that when people point out that so many vaccinated people are dying, the mob descends on them, calling them antivaxxers.

Thus nobody has actually even dared say the complete truth, which is that we actually have **thousands** vaccinated dying every day in the US. It is always mentioned as **hundreds**. But it was 58% of the dead being vaccinated in MA the last time I saw numbers, and MA is a highly vaccinated state, but not UK-level highly vaccinated, so I doubt it is less than 35-40% currently anywhere in the country and the average is at minimum at that too.

Officially deaths peaked at 2,600 a day this winter.

But, we know excess deaths have been running at 20-25% higher throughout the pandemic because of insufficient testing and outright faked death certificates. So make that 3,000 in reality.

Also, last year there were many big data dumps months after the winter wave passed, that overall added some 20K deaths. This year reporting has been much more irregular and many states have been moving towards not reporting at all in real time. So the safe bet is that there will both be even bigger data dumps in the coming months and that the discrepancy between official and excess deaths is higher and will keep increasing.

So 3,000 a day in total is the minimum, while I would not at all be surprised if the actual number crossed 4,000 at the peak and that we are at more than 3,000 a day even now.

But let’s take it to be 3,000, 35% of that is 1,000 dead a day, 50% of it is 1,500.

That these numbers are probably correct is also corroborated by the data from Israel — Israel actually releases that information and hey have had most of their deaths in the vaccinated in this wave (and “vaccinated” there means three doses, not two, when you add those in the “expired” category, it gets to 70-80% of all deaths). They peaked in this wave at levels equivalent to over 3,000 dead a day in the US. Vaccination rates are somewhat comparable, i.e. Israel is not UK-level, everyone-vulnerable-with-at-least-two-and-most-with-three-shots because of the religious factor.

The UK itself peaked at the equivalent of 1500 dead a day in the US and 80% of those were vaccinated, so even if vaccination in the US had been at comparable levels, the US would have had over 1000 vaccinated dying every day.

Recall that in summer 2020, before we had vaccines, the US peak was at 1,200 a day. And that was a tragedy back then. Now we are above that just within the vaccinated and it is almost completely covered up.

And now it has all been declared over, which means that boosting will be forgotten as a concern even further, and the next variant will be met with no NPIs and vaccines that have faded to very low levels of protection among much of the population….

Here we are. The eagerness of American elites to maintain their illusion of competence is digging our collective Covid hole even deeper. And even though treated-as-if-they-are-dispensable essential workers and the elderly will fare worst, it’s not as if those at the top of the food chain will escape unscathed. But by the time enough of them individually get wake-up calls so as to puncture their collective denial, it will be too late to change course. It is already too late now.
____

1 Some IM Doc doozies. From August:

I was informed today by the Health Dept that they have absolutely zero way of tracking correctly vaccinated cases. In that they do not have the ability to retrospectively find out which vaccination the person has had. So there is no way the CDC will be having this kind of detail, unless other states are doing this. I seriously kind of doubt it. It is now looking more and more that it is going to be up to local physicians like myself.

And November:

When you have been doing this as long as I have, you have a memory of what happened before and with that comes certain expectations about what should be happening now. I think that is what separates the older than 55 crowd from the under 40 crowd.

We do not even have to go back to AIDS. I am thinking of the last 2 events in my career where there was exceptional involvement from the CDC. In 2018, we had the vaping crisis. In 2012 or thereabouts, we had the West Nile issue. Although that virus had been with us since 2001 here in the USA, it really exploded in the summer of 2012 in the Deep South in the USA. I will not include the 2014 Ebola problem. The CDC was very involved there but that never really had to be taken nationally, these other 2 examples did.

In both cases, there was frequent, at times weekly updating from the CDC about treatment options and guidelines. There was intense discussion of what seemed to be working and what did not. In both cases, these treatment options were obviously non-approved for these purposes by the FDA. There was a crisis, and this is what we have available, and this is how you should be using them. This is what works. This is what does not work. And this is our evidence why we feel the way we do. This was constant from the CDC in both cases.

That has simply not happened at all in COVID. Here we are 2 years into this. There is not a single shred of treatment advice from the CDC outside of the inpatient setting. Let’s face it – most antiviral efforts have to be done immediately. That would mean where I work in an outpatient setting is the golden hour. If we wait till the patients are in the hospital they are going to have much worse outcomes. The agencies are saying nothing about outpatient therapy and have put forth nothing. We have worldwide studies on fluvoxamine, ivermectin, HCQ, steroids, VIT D, VIT C, Zinc, and I am sure there are many others. We now have monoclonal AB. A question – have you ever heard Dr. Fauci discuss monoclonal AB in a positive way? If you have please show it to me.

There has been no guidance at all about any of these therapy options. There has been lots of censoring, hectoring, belittling, and confusion. It is unusual to find a physician willing to engage any of these therapies, despite some of them having overwhelming positive signals in early outpatient therapy.

There is not ONE single bullet. By now, 2 years into this we should be throwing all kinds of things at these patients – anti-virals, anti-clotting agents, anti-inflammatory agents. But we are doing nothing.

Again, our CDC has done nothing to help with this at all. NOTHING. Not only the CDC. In previous events, there was treatment advice flowing from medical schools around the country. CRICKETS.

We have gone all in on the vaccine approach and have done so from the beginning.

Now, the bill is due. My office is literally flooding with vaxxed and boosted patients that are very ill. We are in a precarious situation with the hospitals of America. They are in much worse shape employee-wise than many Americans would dare dream.

I feel all alone. I feel it is my sworn job to keep as many of these people safe and out of the hospital as possible. But there is literally no help from the CDC at all VAX VAX VAX. Here is the problem – about 85% of these patients in my practice that are now positive and getting sicker by the day are already VAXED Many of them boostered. We are in the middle of a crisis with the hospitals – and we simply cannot fill them up the way we have.

I have never felt so shat on professionally in my life. I am having to weave together treatment protocols from multiple sources. And hope for the best that we can survive.

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And another in its entirety (see also the ecosophia conversation on this post, here: https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/170530.html?thread=26977314#cmt26977314)

Also, as sometimes happens, some media doesn't embed well.
 

“Bankruptcy For Moderna, Definitely Pfizer”

Yves here. I’m in no position to verify the underlying data, but the fact that both Moderna and Pfizer stocks are markedly down says investors regard these concerns about vaccine liability as serious.

A lawyer buddy thinks that even if this take on the frequency of bad side effect is spot on, Pfizer and Moderna still might get off the hook on product liability in the US. However, shareholders would have them dead to rights on securities fraud, for not disclosing to investors the information they had about serious vaccine side effects and the impact that could have on willingness to get boosted. In addition, foreign countries that also gave liability waivers are not as likely to be forgiving as the US. We could see a Boeing 737 Max replay, of foreign regulators lowering the boom and the US position eventually becoming untenable.

The plural of anecdote is not data, but consider this from IM Doc:

I will report what I am hearing as recently as yesterday.

An ex-Covid-vaccine company executive.

There are lots of detonations getting ready to happen. The life insurance companies and many Wall Street firms who feel they have been defrauded are the ones getting the cannons ready to fire.

My understanding is the liability is actually not the adverse events as such. They have liability waivers for that. It is for fraud. Once fraud is proven, the liability wavers go poof. Apparently, there are people lining up with hands open willing to sell all kinds of damning documents.

We were apparently not alone with the “something is wrong” take from the earliest paper. The incident with the testing centers being accused of fraud by employees, the subsequent bmj paper about that, the two vaccinologists resigning from FDA, and now the latest CDC admissions and presenting papers for FOIA with everything redacted – all are taking a toll.

apparently, the play here is the insurance companies and hedge funds screwed by disastrous Moderna and biontech share prices are taking the lead for the fraud to be shown. Then they will sue these companies for damages.

I asked the guy if he thought it would work. His response “Pfizer certainly does.”

In the meantime, as alluded to above, this sort of thing does not inspire confidence:

 

By Raúl Ilargi Meijer, editor at Automatic Earth. Originally published at Automatic Earth

Justus R. Hope, MD, at Desert Review has a long article up on the views of former Blackrock exec, hedge funder, investment adviser Edward Dowd, along with a neverending list of podcasts. To which I will add a few at the bottom of this article. We’ve seen a few Dowd videos lately, but nothing like this. He should be on Joe Rogan ASAP.

The entire thing is so complete, devastating, shocking, that I don’t know what else to do than give you some quotes. It very much feels like the end of mRNA, and of the FDA in its present shape, because they -the government itself- are deeply complicit in outright investor fraud. Wall Street (“multiple brokerage houses”) is finding this out, Moderna stock is already down 70%, and that’s just the start.

mRNA vaccines are killing and maiming people: “..no matter the effort, one cannot hide the bodies – and “the bodies are piling up.”

Good luck with your vaxx mandates.

Pfizer & Moderna Investors Run for the Exits

Wall Street investors are dumping their Moderna and Pfizer stock faster than the world can drop the mandates. Moderna is down 70 percent from its high, while Pfizer is off 19 percent. Former Blackrock Executive and investment adviser Edward Dowd calls for Moderna to go to zero and Pfizer to end under ten dollars per share.

How is this possible given that Pfizer now enjoys record earnings per share and a market capitalization of some $270 billion, making it the 29th largest corporation globally? With nothing but profits in sight for the Pharmaceutical giant, what could be the problem?

[..] For the skeptics, consider that Pfizer stock lost $20 billion in market capitalization on February 8, 2022, when their record earnings fell short of more optimistic expectations. Also consider that Moderna’s stock is down some 70 percent from its high of $484 on August 9, 2021, wiping out almost $ 140 billion in investment. Dowd predicts Moderna will drop to zero with bankruptcy as fraud related to concealing the COVID vaccine dangers surfaces, and he predicts Pfizer will become a sub-ten-dollar stock. Dowd explains that the smart money has already left Moderna and will soon be exiting Pfizer.

Dowd foresees an avalanche of lawsuits coming as the insurance industry continues to uncover the legions of mounting deaths coming from the complications of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Dowd teamed up with an insurance industry analyst and researched the life insurance claims. They found that since OneAmerica shocked the world by announcing a 40% rise in non-COVID deaths in younger working-class employees, multiple other insurance companies worldwide have seen the same thing – massive rises in non-COVID deaths. And the evidence inescapably points to the vaccines as the cause.

Meanwhile, the funeral company stocks have outperformed the S&P. “Funeral Home companies are growth stocks. They had a great year in 2021 compared to 2020, and they outperformed the S&P 500. The peer group of Funeral Home stocks was up 40 plus percent while the S&P was up 26 percent – and they started accelerating price-wise in 2021 during the roll-out of the vaccines – You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to connect the dots here.”

Other insurance companies have reported the same or worse death numbers as OneAmerica. For example, “Unum Insurance is up 36%, Lincoln National plus 57%, Prudential plus 41%, Reinsurance Group of America plus 21%, Hartford plus 32%, Met Life plus 24%, and Aegon – which is a Dutch insurer – saw in their US arm plus 57% in the 4th quarter – in the 3rd quarter they saw a 258% increase in death claims.”

“They raised (mortality) expectations 300,000 for 2022 over 2021 due to COVID plus ‘indirect COVID,’ which I think we know what that’s code for… They (Aegon) did a $1.4 billion reinsurance deal with Wilton Reinsurance…what they were reinsuring were high face amount individual policies from 1 million to 10 million… (So) I think there is an asymmetric information situation going on in the insurance industry where some people have figured out something’s going on. They are off-loading their risk – they are not going to say what it is as they don’t want that information to get out as they unload the risk.”.

“Someone is going to be the bag holder here.” And Dowd is confident it won’t be the insurance industry. A court in France has already held that a life insurance company cannot be held liable for a death because of the mRNA vaccine. But that does not explain how mRNA manufacturers can be held responsible for an emergency product they were told was liability-free. Aren’t the vaccine manufacturers immunized from lawsuits? After all, they were granted EUA, the specialized Emergency Use Authorization, which means they cannot be held legally accountable for deaths or adverse effects stemming from the experimental vaccines.

The idea is that no company – upon government request – should have to pay for unforeseen complications resulting from an emergency product that they released to the world out of their goodness of the hearts, with the best of intentions. Right? Wrong – not when your company accomplishes this through deceit, also known as fraud. Fraud undoes all these protections. If a company or person intentionally deceives another to profit, we have fraud. If Pfizer’s data showed increased all-cause mortality and hid this to motivate people to take the vaccine while claiming it was safe, then fraud exists.

Under common law, the required elements to prove fraud amount to: #1. A materially false statement or purposeful failure to state or release material facts which non-disclosure makes other statements misleading. #2. The false statement is made to induce Plaintiff to act. #3. The Plaintiff relied upon the false statement, and the injury resulted from this reliance. #4. Damages include a punitive award as a punishment that serves as a public example to discourage any future similar fraud. Punitive damages are generally proportional to the Defendant’s assets.

 

Dowd has been researching the COVID-19 vaccines and what he considers obvious evidence of knowing concealment of the actual risks of death – and he points to the Herculean efforts of Pfizer with FDA in withholding their data despite legal challenges to release it. He likens the FDA today to the rating agencies during the Mortgage Crisis. “FDA is the trusted third party, just like the rating agencies were. And a lot of doctors in this country, a lot of local governments are placing their trust in the FDA which gets 50 percent of its budget from large cap pharma. It wasn’t any one person…I think they overlooked things…An all-cause mortality end-point should have stopped this thing in its tracks – and it didn’t.”

There were more deaths in the vaxxed group than in the unvaxxed. Dowd assumes fraud based upon the FDA backing Pfizer in not releasing their data. He believes this is a knowing attempt to conceal the deaths. “When one party enters into a contract…and fraud was occurring when they entered into that contract, and the other party did not know that – the contract is void and null. There’s no indemnity if this can be proven, and I think it will be.” “Pfizer got blanket immunity with EUA. If fraud occurred, to my mind and what I’m seeing from their refusal to release the data – if there is fraud and it comes out – and we need whistleblowers – and it’s looking more apparent that this product is deadly – fraud eviscerates all contracts – that’s case law. So you go down the daisy chain, and that’s liability – that’s bankruptcy for Moderna, definitely Pfizer.”

Dowd remarks that no matter the effort, one cannot hide the bodies – and “the bodies are piling up.” He notes that the deaths skyrocketed after the vaccine rollout when they should have dropped. And the deaths are what distinguished the 2021-2022 vaccine scandal as far worse than what happened with Enron. “People are dying and being maimed. This is a fraud that goes beyond the pale…We have the VAERS data…We have the DoD leak…And now we have the insurance company results and the funeral home results…We don’t need to think too hard about this…Deaths should have gone down after the vaccines rolled out. This is the most egregious fraud in history of the nation – and it’s global…Pfizer’s involved, and they committed fraud,” Dowd explained.

[..] Dowd emphasized that he is not short on Pfizer or Moderna stock. He explained that he does not profit from their share prices dropping. He also points out that his predictions are not the cause of the steep declines as these occurred before he came out with this analysis. “Let me make a point here. The mainstream media may ignore this. Wall Street is not.”

[..] Edward Dowd cautions those who continue to slumber, “If you are long these two stocks, you are long mandates, you are long government control, and you are long the selling of your freedoms.” Let us get everyone on board the freedom train.

 

 

 

More Dowd.

Multiple Brokerage Houses Now Investigate MRNA Jabs

EXCLUSIVE: Wall Street Taps Pfizer Whistleblower to Help Probe Alarming Details of Fraud During VAX Clinical Trials; Former Blackrock’s Edward Dowd Drops More Bombs as ***MULTIPLE*** Brokerage Houses Now Investigate MRNA Jabs



 

 

 

 

 
FredsGotSlacks

I feel so confused now and don’t know what to believe. I got my three shots of Pfizer based on what I understood to be a) a great safety record so far across millions of doses and b) the notion that even if side effects occurred, it wouldn’t be as bad as the potential nasty illness and death that could result from COVID. My immune system is awful and I had gotten deathly ill from swine flu back in 2009 or whenever that was. I’m not in any way antivaxx but I was suspicious of something like these vaccines which were rolled out so quickly. However, my cost-benefit analysis and my desire to remain healthy for my kids pushed me to get the shots. To note, I’ve had no noticeable side effects so far. For better or worse (some existing chronic issues) my health remains the same.

But now, this is the first serious indication I’ve seen from my favorite source of news (NC) that maybe all the “loony” anti-vaxxers are right (not meant to demean anyone here or elsewhere with legitimate questions, issues, etc.). Like, the people ranting about Bill Gates, new world order, giant genetic experiment who sounded so unhinged…were they right all along? While I didn’t lose any friends or family over this, it certainly caused a strain in some areas. I’m a huge fan in getting things right and not denying truth just because I’ve had to admit I was wrong or was duped or what-have-you. But, this is the first time I’m seeing anything from what I consider to be the best source of info out there (cheers to NC again) that would indicate the vaccines are actually not just ineffective, but harmful.

I’m a leftist (really an old-school new deal dem via inheriting that world view from my grandparents) and generally despise both the institutional parties at this point. And, I’ve grown pretty cynical as I’ve started to enter middle age. But man, I still had a tiny shred of trust left in some aspects of our institutions in this country (hard to believe I know). IF this turns out to be true re: the vaccines, that they (particularly public health agencies) were hiding this much adverse side effects, etc., that will probably kill the last shred of optimism I have for anything good to happen.

I saw some comment above re: “world class athletes dropping dead on the field in the dozens”. That’s definitely the first I’ve heard of that. Does anyone have any sources for that information? I’d be very interested in hearing about those cases.

But anyway, this feels like the biggest “bombshell” I’ve encountered on NC in terms of changing what I perceived as a generally positive outlook (at worst less effective than advertised) on vaccines to one of total rejection of the generally accepted narrative. I very, very much hope to see follow-up on this here on NC because this really freaked me out.

Anyway, keep up the good work Yves, Lambert, Jerry-Lynn. This remains my only source of sanity in the news world and gives me a break from Twitter doom scrolling.

Reply ↓

 

  1. tegnost

    re: “world class athletes dropping dead on the field in the dozens”.

    That kind of claim definitely deserves a citation

    Reply ↓
      1. Cojo

        RE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_association_footballers_who_died_while_playing

        Looking at the wikipedia numbers the prior 6 years (2014-2019) there were on average 10 deaths per year. 2020 only listed 3 deaths, likely due to reduced matches due to the lockdowns. Many of these players were in lower league divisions which may not have picked up activity after the initial shutdowns. 2021 listed 21 deaths, three of which were over the age of 40 which also is high compared to the prior years. One can argue that by averaging out 2020 and 2021 numbers, you’re still around the mean for the last 7 years. Perhaps 2021 was a “catch up” year, for those who would have died in 2020 of cardiac arrest had they played a full season. This makes biologic sense in some genetic causes of sudden death such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy or arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia. The phenotypic changes may start manifesting as the body and heart age.

        Reply ↓
  2. Arizona Slim

    Me? I am standing here in Tucson, Arizona, and I am blowing kisses at my computer screen.

    Thank you, thank you, THANK YOU to the Naked Capitalism crew for publishing this story.

    Reply ↓
  3. IM Doc

    This is what I would say to you.

    In medicine, when we do any intervention, we have to assess risks and benefits. I spend a large amount of my time daily going over all of this with my patients on all kinds of medications and procedures.

    The same thing should be done with any vaccine. I am not now nor have I ever been an “anti-vaxxer.” I have never been one taken to conspiracy theories. I have literally given out 30K or more vaccinations in my career. I do, however, do everything by the numbers and strive to do the very best for my patients.

    And here is where I got to where I am right now. I knew from the very first days with this vaccination program that critical things were not being shared with the American people in a way that a) was accurate and b) was based on science. The two big problems among many others was 1) the constant use of “herd immunity” as a reason for vaccination for COVID. Coronaviruses are respiratory viruses – like the flu and rhinoviruses. Because of their makeup, herd immunity is simply not possible. This has been known and settled science for decades. They will absolutely attenuate over time in a pandemic and from babyhood to adulthood – but there is no such thing as herd immunity. We will catch and be sick from each of these multiple times in our lives no matter our immune status – vaccinated or natural immunity. This was absolutely not told to the American or world people in this way. I wish I could find the Rachel Maddow clip and the Dr. Walensky clip telling Americans that these were going to stop transmission in its tracks. This was never in the cards. Ever. More apropos to the conversation here was a tweet done on Apr 1 2021 by Bourla the CEO of Pfizer – stating the vaccine was 100% effective. That simply could never have been true ( I at the same time was going to one lecture after the other stating that it could not be true) If we want to think about fraud – that tweet may be exhibit #1 – what did he know and when did he know it – as they say. #2 – The initial vaccine papers used a statistical construct called a relative risk reduction which completely misled the American people in the efficacy of these vaccines. NO ONE – and I MEAN NO ONE – in the media ever bothered to explain this in terms normal people could understand. I tried my best to explain this on this site on numerous occasions.

    And so what happened when the efficacy issues detonated in July at the Provincetown event was 100% predictable. I had been screaming it from the rooftops for weeks. And now we have all kinds of experts who were cheering these deceptions on for months now stating that “everyone knew” this was going to happen. No one ever promised that kind of efficacy, etc. THE DECEPTION WAS GOING ON FOR 6 MONTHS FROM THE TOP DOWN.

    Now as it happens – we were so very lucky – the vaccines did nothing to stop transmission – but at least initially they did seem to keep people out of the hospital at first. I cannot even say that now – it seems at best they keep people out of the ICU. BUT THAT WAS NEVER A CLINICAL ENDPOINT IN ANY OF THE INITIAL STUDIES. That is by happenstance what has become clear after they were out. And it is not clear how long this will continue. But again, we have no idea exactly what this hospitalization effect is – our agencies are now admitting that they are withholding data ABOUT THIS VERY TOPIC.

    So for efficacy – it is clear from a public health standpoint – these vaccines do nothing. They should never be the foundation of vaccine mandates or passports. That is simply scientifically ridiculous at this point. And these mandates are dividing the country and cratering our rural health care systems. There is nothing in medical science to back their use up at this point.
    HOWEVER, individually – for some patients the risk benefit ratio of the vaccines absolutely makes 100% sense. I HAVE LITERALLY BEEN ON MY KNEES BEGGING HIGH RISK PEOPLE TO GET VACCINATED. MULTIPLE TIMES.

    As far as the safety issues, it is literally a big unknown. I have had 1 vaccine related death in my practice. I am now up to 15 issues that are severe enough to warrant ER visits or hospital stays and multiple dozens of others with office visits. Many of have recovered fully – many have not. These problems remain very rare – I have about 2800 patients in my practice – so you can do the math about prevalance – but is actually very troubling for vaccines. And many of these have happened in younger people – patients with their whole lives in front of them. For perspective – in my entire career of 30 years – I have had less than 5 very mild issues with all the other vaccines combined. And no – this is NOT just OK. This is very troubling. It has tormented me for months. And it is not just me – it is happening to my colleagues everywhere. At least those willing to face the obvious.

    And it makes me all the sicker to know the constant cry of 100% effective and 100% safe from our media and officials. I get very angry. It is MY JOB to discuss the risk benefit ratio with my patients – but we have been completely hampered in complete information in this by stonewalling and blank FOIA forms.

    The thing that seems to be a complete fail is that I have 30 years of experience going through things like this with patients. I know how to address fear and panic. And I and all of my primary care colleagues have been completely sidelined by dissembling and claptrap. How much better would it have been to arm us all with complete and transparent and correct information – and let us all do what we have been trained to do and have been doing for years. That was the approach not taken. Instead, we have all kinds of rumors and this or that family or friend falling ill after vaccination – and scaring people to death – and then a President on national TV with a rictus grin badgering people – your arm or your job. Our patience is running thin. What a complete abdication of the principles of medicine and public health.

    As an IRB member for years – I know for a fact that once any study is showing the all-cause-mortality is elevated in the treatment group above the placebo group – instant cessation should be done. This has been the case EVERY SINGLE TIME in my tenure on IRBs. Unfortunately, we now know this was the case in the original Pfizer trial – MORE PATIENTS DIED IN THE TREATMENT ARM THAN THE PLACEBO ARM. That was released months after it should have been – and is very ethically concerning. There is no excuse for this. And that is why I find this whole thing so troubling. And am very concerned now about all these life insurance reports. This is so confounding too – could these people be dying from LONG COVID? VACCINE ISSUES? SOMETHING ELSE? – It is going to take a long time to tease this all out. But the fact that we have companies, media, and agencies who to this day are still not being transparent is alarming in my opinion.

temporaryreality: (Default)
 I notice that the embedding of media (generally twitter posts) is spotty throughout this series - if you want to see what's being referred to, visit the Naked Capitalism site.


During a COVID-19 Surge, ‘Crisis Standards of Care’ Involve Excruciating Choices and Impossible Ethical Decisions for Hospital Staff

Posted on January 1, 2022 by 

Yves here. IM Doc has been sending us grim accounts from his hospital. Yesterday he was the only MD in the ER, with one nurse, and a massive influx of cases. The hospital is not overloaded but the price has been the ER becoming a war zone....
 

Kevin Smith

The unvaccinated, when they get Covid, exhale much more virus than the vaccinated, and they exhale virus for a longer period of time; so they are a particular threat to the people around them and to the people trying to take care of them.

I wonder if special care centers could be set up for the [voluntarily] unvaccinated, where they could be taken care of by unvaccinated medical personnel?

 
  1. IM Doc

    I am not sure your first sentence is even true. On multiple levels, not the least of which is that the vaccinated are making up the sick cases way higher than their proportion in cohorts. This is becoming more obvious by the day where I am, and is being increasingly reported in countries everywhere.

    And explain the cruise ships and naval ships, fully vaccinated, now with outbreaks reported daily.

    And as I have repeatedly tried to say, the unvaccinated would not be a threat to anyone, if these vaccines were actually sterilizing as you seem to believe they are. Indeed, because of the extreme bungling messaging of our officials, the vaccinated largely believe they are bullet proof. Ergo, the last three days of my life with large cohorts of patients cramming the ER who had been infected in vaccinated only parties and events.

    Had I dared say anything about “special care centers” when I was an intern in the AIDS crisis, I would have been fired instantly. Any such talk today is equally wicked.

    Indeed, I am now surrounded at work by recently ill and positive workers, vaccinated and boostered, coming into work sick, sneezing, and coughing, because the incompetence of our system has put the health care system in this position.

    With all respect, I believe your above comment and the brainwashing it represents, is an example of why we are in the dire straits we are in today. I am imploring the vaccinated and boostered reading this not to assume you are bulletproof.

IM Doc

I think on this first day of the New Year, time for contemplation over the past 2 years is in order. I am currently in the hospital on duty dictating this into a computer. So sorry if there are typos and mistakes. Something could happen at any moment. Our hospital is as stressed right now as I have ever seen a hospital in my life. All kinds of staff and providers are now out on quarantine. We are inundated with patients who cannot get into their regular docs – who are COVID positive, vaccinated and pissed. We are having to man the ER with employees who are not really trained in those positions. This on top of all the other things happening in the ER. I have been running a DKA in the waiting room in front of dozens of people all night because there is simply nowhere else safe to put the patient. Many of the patients clogging the ER are scared to death from the fact that they have become positive, but in reality are having very mild symptoms. Turning the entire wing of the hospital into a superspreader event. I would ask everyone – if you are just having mild symptoms – please stay home right now. Monitor carefully your vulnerable family members and friends. If you are positive – monitor yourself carefully and your exposed family and friends with frequent pulse ox measurements. And we all need to keep our wits. Screaming and yelling like a fool in a crisis like this is not helping. Fortunately, it continues to hold that very few of these COVID patients are requiring hospitalization. I am absolutely convinced we are seeing a mix of delta and omicron.

I could go on and on with the disaster my professional life has been this week – but I think you get the point. Contemplate that is likely going on all over America right now – and then think about these numbers. On Dec 31 2020 231K COVID cases were logged in USA – on DEC 31 2021 – that number is 443K. Deaths on DEC 31 2020 were 3,400 and on DEC 31 2021 – were 1,181. Please remember in 2020 – we were much further into the hospitalization curve so that death number may very well increase. I certainly pray every day that is the case.

But the difference between 2021 (approximately 65% of USA fully vaccinated) and 2020 (0% vaccinated) could not be more stark and concerning. As I have repeatedly taught medical students over decades – we must look at the final common outcomes to really gauge the success of an intervention. Given these numbers, and the status of the ERs all over America, I would give the vaccines a solid F as a public health measure. That said, it is clear for INDIVIDUAL risk mitigation, there is currently an advantage – and even that is not really seeming to hold up much longer. Add to that, the numbers coming from everywhere that the vaccinated seem to be more at risk of infection with the latest variant – and I cannot see how anyone can call this a success.

And my colleagues are finally starting to notice. This is just clearly not working and may very well be worse than if we had no intervention at all. And I had the same question asked of me in the doctor’s lounge that you asked in your comment – “We had to do SOMETHING – how can we say this was a mistake?” That is an important advance – just VERBALIZING that a few weeks ago would have gotten someone the side eye.

It is critical for all to know that there is a decades/centuries long science in Western Medicine for public health ideals. There are standards and rules discussing how to do things in normal times – and how to do things in crises like this. It is as if that entire framework has been thrown out the window in favor of doing all we can to maximize the use of pharmaceuticals that will make Pharma lots of money – not just the vaccines but also things like Remdesevir. And they have played the game masterfully. All the psy-op tricks of the trade from Pharma that I have witnessed being done over my life have come out in spades the past 2 years. And they have now been allowed to buy out the media – so censoring and heckling anyone in their way is happening with abandon.

My elderly Infectious Disease doctor faculty warned me decades ago that this day was coming and would likely be a coronavirus. He lamented the fact that would be the worst possible organism. Kills enough people to scare everyone to death – but makes the vast majority have very minimal symptoms. A true nightmare in every way.

Look at public health interventions in a crisis as four legs on a stool – from most important to least important :

1) Identify the organism and who is at most risk. Begin to do everything possible to isolate them and protect them. In our situation – that would have been doing all we could to isolate and protect the elderly and infirm – and once apparent that obesity and decreased activity were risk factors – to get everyone to work on losing weight, eating well, exercising, etc. THIS HAS BEEN A COMPLETE FAIL IN THE USA – Not so much in other parts of the world.

2) Immediately begin to work on mitigation to stop the spread. In our case with COVID, ban travel from affected areas, work on masking, social distancing, grocery and drug deliveries in affected areas, immediately ascertain transmission spread (fomite, blood, aerosol or droplet) and immediately take appropriate measures and encourage all to do so. In doing so, you must treat the populace with respect. No lying or hedging. Out with it – good and bad – and talk to people as they are adults. From one of my public health texts – “THE WORST THING POSSIBLE IS TO ALLOW EFFORTS TO BE POLITICIZED……AVOID THIS AT ALL COSTS.” As we all know, this aspect has been a total fail.

3) Find any and all drugs and other interventions that are anti-pathogen and begin their immediate use as either prophylaxis or as therapy. In the early stages, this may require the use of repurposed agents, and safety profiles over the time they have been approved are critical. Waiting for new agents or approaches is completely impractical in the first seasons of a pandemic. Again – this has been a total fail in our society. There were efforts to do this, but they have been met with derision and censoring from the very beginning. And they too were politicized.

4) Last and of least importance, is the use of vaccines. Vaccines are almost never successful in an acute pandemic – and particulary rushed and untested vaccines have made things worse at times in both man and animal. Vaccines are among the most amazing inventions of modern medicine – right up there with antibiotics. But they are really not too effective acutely but are extremely effective as mop-up operations. One thing is for sure, putting all your eggs in the vaccine basket as we have done – and ignoring and politicizing the first three is a fool’s errand. At the same time we have engendered nothing but skepticism with the vaccines in our population. Bad studies, coercion, indemnification of the pharma companies, hiding side effects, lying about efficacy, premature end-zone dancing – have destroyed any and all credibility in a significant amount of the population.

It must be noted that Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have ZERO background in public health. If they had it – it is now gone. Lots of background in politics and back room dealing, however. There were public health experts in the room ( Dr. Scott Atlas) in the beginning who are now coming out with accounts of how dreadfully prepared they were at meetings and how medical evidence and public health measures meant absolutely nothing to them. I am beginning to believe that Dr. Fauci, a brilliant politician and excellent scientist, has probably been one of the most incompetent public health figures in the entire history of medicine.

Unfortunately – you are correct. I am not sure anything can work now. Too much has happened to the credibility of our health agencies and medicine in general. I do not blame people at all for the disgust that a good chunk of Americans have for them and us right now. My profession – out of sheer and willful ignorance and blind acquiescence to authority – has thrown its credibility to the wind. It will likely take a generation to recover if ever. Our media has been absolutely deplorable through this whole thing – they are indebted to Big Pharma – and have basically become their stenographers in a propaganda campaign.

I am hoping that with Omicron this thing will burn out. Maybe – maybe not. There is historical precedent either way. There are some concerning little factoids coming to the fore that seem to throw cold water on the OMICRON END OF PANDEMIC IDEA. Everyone talks about cases and deaths – no one talks about other effects the virus may be plaguing folks with.

And I am hoping we weather this current crisis – and this will just blow over quickly like an F5 tornado.

That is where I am on this first day of the New Year.
God Bless Us All.

  1. Steve B

    “Are you suggesting that vaccination is not effective and has not been the proper strategy?” The vaccinated are getting sick, but *are* well protected against severe outcomes. They’re not bulletproof by any stretch, and the downside risks of COVID are such that it’s best to avoid COVID altogether, especially with hospitals in crisis mode. However, in highly vaccinated areas, the majority of cases could be vaccinated, just because there are more of them. I’m highly skeptical of reports that vaxxed are in hospital more often per capita than unvaxxed. All of the data I’ve seen to date clearly supports the opposite.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      You are straw manning what IM Doc said. He talked about the rate of sickness, as in symptomatic cases, not hospitalization.

      You’ve engaged in multiple site Policy violations on this threadt. It seems your eagerness to defend the vaccines, which we have pointed out have been oversold (they are not sterilizing yet have been almost pervasively presented by the officialdom and the press as such) has led you to misread at best or at worst knowingly misrepresent comments that dare to offer valid criticisms.

       
    2. IM Doc

      Unfortunately, unlike what the media is pumping to the public, I have had vaccinated and boosted patients with very severe outcomes in the past month. Indeed, I have lost a fully vaccinated extended family member in my own personal life the day after Thanksgiving.

      Please do not confuse the total cases with those being admitted or in the ICU. There are multiple places all over the world reporting the total vaccinated cases are at par or exceeding the ratio of vaxx/unvaxxed in the population. No one has an adequate explanation yet, but it is clearly happening. The vaccines continue to minimize hospital admissions but not prevent them. That too has slowly become less advantageous as we go on. There is no doubt and no change in the critical ICU cases – that is absolutely still mainly an unvaccinated issue. Although even I have had vaccinated and boostered patients become critically ill. It remains true in almost all hospital patients that they have multiple comorbid conditions. Baseline healthy patients almost universally do not require admission vaxxed or not.

      These are the reasons I have been doing all I can to get high risk patients vaccinated. The failure in preventing transmission is however why I am adamantly opposed to coercion and mandates. The complete lack of effecting transmission should be obvious to all by now, thus negating mandates. The individual calculus is different for every person and this should be an individual choice.

      If we ever have a vaccine that prevents transmission, that is a whole new ball game. We certainly are not there yet. And unfortunately as a primary care provider, the silver bullet mentality engendered by our media on the vaccinated mindset has let the vaccinated continue to this day to engage in extremely risky behavior. This is widespread and likely contributing to the ongoing pandemic far more than the unvaccinated ever could. That is the Achilles heel of knowingly releasing a non-sterilizing vaccine into an acute respiratory pandemic.

  1. Tony C

    Not sure I am reading this correctly – are you suggesting that vaccinated individuals are more likely to be seriously ill than unvaccinated individuals ( given equivalent risk profiles associated with age, comorbidities etc ) ?

     
    1. marku52

      No. As I read IM Doc (not to put words in his mouth, but) it appears that the vaxxed are showing up in the ER in greater percentages than the unvaxxed.

      This may just mean the the vaxxed are engaging in more risky behavior. At any rate, it is very clear that vaxx + booster will not prevent Omicron infection.

       
    2. Yves Smith

      Hopefully he will clarify, but from what I have inferred from his close to daily updates, he is seeing comparable levels of sickness in the vaxxed v. unvaxxed, and if anything, the vaxxed are showing up in higher proportions than in his population (and he is in a very high vax area) EXCEPT for the very severely ill, as in ICU level sick. The vaccines are working for that but it seems not much else. He is seeing plenty of vaxxed and boosted who are also plenty sick.

       
    3. IM Doc

      No, the vaxxed are not sicker than the unvaxxed. It seems to be largely the same. The time to recovery for those not admitted is almost exactly the same. There seems to be no advantage to being vaxxed to shorten the acute outpatient illness despite all the testimonials all over social media thanking the vaccine for shortening the illness. That is obviously misplaced gratitude to those of us hip deep in patients of all stripes.

      What has changed is the absolute number of outpatient vaccinated. The numbers have just gone absolutely vertical. The absolute ratio of vaccinated positives to unvaccinated positives in my area is higher than the ratio of vaxx/unvaxxed in the general population. By a startling amount. The illness itself seems to be identical. Boosters do not seem to be doing much either to decrease the illness level as outpatients. Fortunately so far everyone appears to be milder compared to earlier waves.

      I have no observation that the vaccinated are sicker now than the unvaccinated. They are just sicker than what was promised that is for sure. And lots of very very angry patients.

IM Doc

What I am seeing and what is being reported in some other countries is the number of CASES in the vaccinated is out of proportion to the total vaccinated in the area. This is total cases – not just admitted or critically ill.

For example, a tweet yesterday from Germany which is about 70% vaccinated is showing their COVID cases are above 90% vaccinated.

The number of vaccinated getting admitted for illness has been on a slow upward climb since the fall. Yesterday, for example, the few admissions we had in my hospital were about 50/50 unvaccinated to vaccinated.

It is still absolutely the case that the unvaccinated are the absolute majority of those critically ill in the ICU. That does not appear to be changing at all.

Thankfully, the number of admissions remains very low.

There is a big difference between total cases in the community and cases in the hospital. I try my best to be very clear about that.

https://twitter.com/Tim_Roehn/status/1476575806969335812

IM Doc

I will add my own observation here.

Family and I moved about 4 years ago from a major metro area in the USA. I had thousands of patients, and my wife and I were heavily involved in social circles.

I have been subscribing to the paper in that area since that time. One of the chief reasons is to scan the obits every day. I look for my old patients so I can contact their families and we look for our old friends for the same reason.

Since approximately 12-14 months ago, there has been an obvious stand out trend. Obviously, the number of pages required to do the obits has just exploded – and remained high to this day. As one would expect, many many elderly people. However, one also notices the huge number of 40s and 50s and 60s that are in those pages as well, way out of proportion to earlier times.

Obviously, the cause of death is not listed in the vast majority of the cases, nor should it be. But the change is obvious to those paying attention – unfortunately for the reasons above, I am one of those people.

Even in my own practice, in the small town, I have had what I would call an abnormal number of younger people dying this past year. By far and away the number one cause has been suicide. But there has also been an increase in heart and stroke related issues as well. And not all of the patients are dying.

This is something we must keep our eyes on this year. I have doubled down in my practice on suicide risk – and we are very very carefully screening early warning signs for heart issues – ie sudden increase in BP, huge changes in A1c, shortness of breath, etc.

And for those concerned, I alone have no ability to ascertain the causes here. That would require major long-term longitudinal evaluation in multiple areas. It does seem to be happening everywhere though – I am hearing this from colleagues increasingly. There are those who want to blame the vaccines. Maybe, maybe not. It could very easily be related to the COVID infection itself. Again – massive amounts of study will need to be done.

However, I am not surprised by the sudden lack of workers. I think this may be a very contributory cause.


Jessica

“Our data prove that SARS-CoV-2 causes systemic infection and can persist in the body for months.

Just a flu….”

Please forgive me if this is a stupid question, but do we know that flu does not do this? Have we ever checked in the way we are checking regarding covid?

 
  1. IM Doc

    We have had the flu around for centuries. Multiple variants and all.

    We do know quite a bit about flu – but it took decades of medical science to get there.

    There are indeed some unusual things that happen to flu patients but the issue is they are nowhere near as common as these issues with covid seem to be.

    Flu is notorious for causing the severe pneumonia in many patients – elder and informed – that takes their life. That is unfortunately very common every year.

    I have seen this repeatedly and commonly over thirty years.

    The other known issues, I have seen personally maybe ten times in my life – pericarditis, flares of immune issues, and a very strange preponderance to get staph in the lungs. 30 years maybe 10 patients.

    I saw more than 10 patients with bad non-pulmonary covid issues in December alone.

    Every virus and virus family is unique. I will say again – comparing covid to things like flu and Ebola is a fool’s errand. It would be similar to comparing human behavior to whale behavior. Yet our news media revels in this – mainly to bring up these past demons and continue the misplaced panic. Believe me, there is plenty to get our attention right now with covid. Forget the other pathogens.

More Omicron: Diabetics Appear Even More Vulnerable as Diabetic Ketoacidosis Strikes

Posted on January 5, 2022 by 

Our IM Doc sputtered early on in the Omicron wave about not only continued lack of guidance about treatment but also clues as to how Omicron symptoms and progress might differ from earlier variants, particularly given the lack of sequencing in many hospitals (including his) and now even test shortages. As we’ll discuss, there is yet more confirmation that Omicron is much less likely to produce debilitating and often deadly viral pneumonia than early variants. However, the ongoing claim that it is mild may be overdone.

We are not alone in wondering if the apparent higher frequency of less debilitating cases is a statistical anomaly due to incomplete data. We aren’t alone; Yaneer Bar-Yam has expressed similar concerns.

Take two populations of 1000 people.

Assume 200 of one group got symptomatic Delta and 350 of the second group got symptomatic Omicron. That’s hardly nuts in terms of relative penetration of the two variants, given the massive Omicron spike.

Assume 10 of the Delta group wind up being hospitalized and two die. Assume 13 of the Omicron group become hospitalized and two die.

On a population-wide level, Omicron is as deadly and leads to a higher rate of hospitalizations.

But that is not what clinicians will observe. They will look at the level of severe cases among the patients they see or know about. That will of course only be symptomatic cases.

Using the illustrative numbers above, Omicron looks less bad. Delta has a 5% hospitalization rate among symptomatic cases versus 3.7% for Omicron, and a death rate/symptomatic cases of 1% for Delta versus 0.6% for Omicron.

Another factor that may be giving doctors some relief is the shift away from viral pneumonia means that hospitalized patients are likely to have their cases resolve faster. In earlier Covid waves, the severely ill often spent 2 to 3 weeks in a hospital, which is far longer than for most ailments. That meant Covid cases would quickly consume hospital capacity.

However, an offset with Delta is that bad Covid cases, if caught early enough, could be treated with monoclonal antibodies. That’s largely out with Omicron. Most monoclonal antibodies are ineffective against Omicron and the few that work are in very short supply.

And consider:

[in the main post of the day the NC staff had this to add]:

And we now have the testing fiasco: there aren’t enough and so hospitals and doctors are flying blind. IM Doc, who practices in a very affluent area, has been distraught. From recent e-mails:

I am quite literally in the middle of a tsunami.

This AM we had 109 cases from the night and day before – rapidly falling way behind and there is no end in sight.

I can no longer call them COVID, however, we simply have no testing. I have 24 that have actual positive COVID testing – the other 85 we are doing sheer guess work.

Please remember – we were griping about busy days just a few weeks ago with 20 or so COVID patients. Just imagine what it is like here now. I have one staff out on quarantine. And the other one is just frazzled and overwhelmed and emotional after days of this. The other two have been pulled to other critical areas because they have zero staff. There was a time when we would all be on quarantine because of the exposure. I do not have adequate test kits to waste on testing them though.

The private home tests have completely dried up. Many patients have plenty that they have hoarded apparently – but not willing to share. People are being requested to stay home with mild symptoms – and so all I have is guess work on Zoom or the phone….

I have never felt so helpless or out of control in my life.

On top of this is all the usual stuff every day in a busy practice – abnormal mammograms, glucoses going off the wall, chest pain, infected toes – you name it.

I feel like I am drowning.


 

[and this a few posts later]:

Our normally polite and measured IM Doc has had it:

Behold this video. I cannot tell you how livid Joe Q Public is becoming. And they get to listen to this dope for answers.

like this md has any standing to evaluate other’s credibility.

“Guidelines with stakeholder input” I am not even sure what that means exactly……

but that will fix the credibility problem… yeah

I have a good idea – release every single unrestricted VAERS and v safe report along with the entirety of the Pfizer and Moderna data. Then we will talk. Until then shut up. Your bumbling is making the credibility problems so much worse.

maybe I should be grateful we are at least acknowledging the credibility chasm.

 

IM Doc

From the Twilight Zone Episode that is now our US Supreme Court –

Justice Sotomayor, from what I have seen of her appearance on news reports is absolutely high risk for severe COVID, regardless of her vaccination status, simply because she is so obese. Indeed, I admitted a fully vaccinated and boostered patient who is about her age and size this week to the hospital.

Justice Sotomayor, fully vaccinated and boostered according to news reports, decided to hear the case in her own office over Zoom. This is an appropriate medical decision based on what we know about the inability of these vaccines to prevent COVID transmission. And again, regardless of her vaccination status, she should do all she can to protect herself from COVID. Because of her obesity status, as her PCP, I would have done all I could for her to be vaccinated. On an individual level, it will absolutely decrease her chance of ending up in the ICU. But as I have become so good at explaining to patients the past several months, it will do absolutely nothing to decrease her risk of catching or transmitting the virus. Nor will it decrease the outpatient illness that people seem to get. I have seen ZERO difference in the outpatient illness between those vaxxed or not. It is about the same. A mild illness for many, a severe “knock you out for a few days” illness for many. Vaccine status seems to not make a difference in the outpatient illness.

But yet, she stated in her remarks and questions, that the vaccines are essential for protecting workers from spreading the virus. And by inference, this vaccine efficacy is worth firing millions of hard-working Americans from their jobs. And I repeat, she asked these questions, fully vaccinated and boostered, sitting in her office so she did not come into contact with the other justices – all of whom are at least fully vaccinated.

It seems to me she is admitting something wrong with the narrative, betrayed by her own behavior. And she is contemplating millions of Americans losing their livelihood? To protect the vaccinated co-workers from what exactly?

Is this how vaccines are supposed to work?

Am I missing something?


  1. IM Doc

    From here on the ground –

    There are lots and lots of outpatient COVID patients – I am seeing way more than ever before. And for this entire week – all but 11 ( out of hundreds) have been vaccinated and/or boostered. That is much over par for our overall vaccination rate in the community.

    We are now routinely above 50% in our hospitalized vaccinated patients – but the really critical ones do indeed remain unvaccinated.

    Here is the problem – many of these outpatients are very very sick. Including the vaccinated and boostered. Because of the incompetence and negligence of our health apparatus, I have no idea if these really sick patients are Delta or Omicron. I suspect many if not most of the really ill are actually Delta – but there is no way of knowing at all. The majority of these patients are not even able to be COVID tested much less having variant analysis. Of course – they have pulled all the monoclonal Ab which really worked.

    I do not know what else to say. It is a war zone where I am.

    I am watching our already fragile health care system fracture in real time before my eyes. We have had 2 overwhelmed employees this weekend just get up and walk out. Not a good situation. The hospital is having to shutter entire departments. I really hope what they are saying is true – that this will be a quick-moving wave. Not really seeing that yet.

IM Doc

I would urge us to be very careful about comparing our current scenario to influenza.

Influenza and corona viruses are completely different things. They behave differently in the wild.

The 1918 influenza came at a very inopportune moment in human history.

The 1890s pandemic, more and more are thinking it was indeed coronavirus OC 43, was much different and so far is mirroring our current situation. Depending on where you were in the world, there were 7 to 12 huge waves. There was no clean stair stepping down in badness, each wave had its own characteristics, and some waves were nothingburgers, some were Godzilla. There was no ordered procession in decreased pathogenicity. It was all over the place. The 5th wave in the European area was a nightmare, while 4 was nothing, and 6 not too good. This is also the case in some coronavirus pandemics in animals.

Then there are examples, cov1, where the pandemic just ends likely for a combination of reasons – but no one knows for sure.

As I have repeatedly said, collective humanity and our collective immune system is going to have a hot war with this virus until the hostilities are over. We will then settle into a Cold War for eternity. OC43 is still around and makes us all sick with new variants every other year or so. It just kills a microscopic number of people at this point. It remains to be seen how the introduction of vaccines will play out in this war. We have never attempted this in humans before. In every animal coronavirus pandemic where vaccines were attempted, it has ended in tears.

That is the future with COVID. At this point, we have no idea how long this will take. Any celebrations at this point are entirely premature. So far, despite all our technology and “wisdom”, we are not doing that much better than the 1890s.


LA County tallies most daily COVID deaths since April 2021 KCRA. IM Doc sputters by e-mail:

Paging Dr. Monica Ghandi….Yes, that Dr. Gandhi. The ID TV expert promising all for weeks that California was bulletproof for hospitalizations and deaths from COVID. The vaccine rate was just too high and there was no way it was going to happen.

Fun fact – I was witness to another expert being asked a question today – “Are these deaths from omicron or delta?” “Is anyone testing these strains?”

His answer – “Why would you need to do that? It is obvious from the data that Omicron is not lethal.”

These are world experts. You just cannot make this stuff up.

Scientist GM added:

Monica Gandhi has been one of the most reliable predictors of what is going to happen throughout the pandemic. Nearly 100% success rate, you just have to assume the opposite of what she says.

Another IM Doc sighting:

 

His comment:

I am really trying to picture American medical figures like William Osler, Palmer Howard, Harvey Cushing, or William Halsted daring to show up and entertain a group like the World Economic Forum.

I am simply unable to do so.

I just simply cannot imagine any of these heroes thinking an appearance in this kind of group would be appropriate in any way. They would have avoided it like the plague.

But that has not stopped Fauci. And in doing so, is giving us all kinds of indications of his true motives and accordingly the motives of the NIH and the FDA. WHAT ON EARTH DOES THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM OFFER THAT WOULD BE TAKING UP A MINUTE OF THE HEAD OF OUR COVID RESPONSE’S TIME?

Furthermore, the section in this tweet about Fauci’s take on the non-believers and even more importantly Moderna’s plans for boosters and further vaccine schedules is quite illuminating.

These people have learned nothing from the past two years. Nothing. They are doubling down at full speed. The hubris is overwhelming.

bassmule

If you keep scrolling down the IVM tweet, there seem to be reservations from other commenters, like “The study contained multiple methodological flaws that call the reliability of its conclusions into question.” Just sayin’

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  1. Yves Smith

    If the objections amount to it being not an RCT (I have not looked at the details), that is spurious. Lots of medical and real world advances were tested using non-RCT approaches. The fetishization of RCTs is becoming a big negative for medical practice. This is a huge pet peeve of both IM Doc and KLG.

    Reply ↓
  2. IM Doc

    Yes this study being referenced has quite the problems.

    Everyone must understand the profound dilemma those of us trying to help patients are in. Especially now that vaccine failure to alleviate illness is obvious for all to see and we are deluged with all kinds of sickness with no treatment alternatives for our patients.

    There are definite positive signals in multiple studies that are much better done. There are multiple positive signals in bench research and virology studies. And there is myself who has quite the experience using this med and not in a tele doc way. My own patients in front of me. I have a thirty year bullshit detector in my brain at all times. COVID seems to go much better in those who take it. And I am not alone by a long shot in that observation.

    And yet, here we are two years into this and our govt has failed to do any kind of meaningful investigation. Instead, without any evidence why, by complete fiat, have deemed this drug worthless and harmful and gone about in every way to torpedo it. This has NEVER been done, not one time in my thirty years of medicine.

    It makes no sense. And those of us sick and tired of big pharma behavior, have this sick feeling that more is going on than meets the eye.

    It is things like this that make it very understandable why there is so much disinformation and conspiracy theories. The people at the top have ZERO understanding of basic human behavior.

Carla

Re: free N95’s — Wouldn’t it make sense for masks from the U.S. strategic reserve to go to health care workers? I just had to spend several hours in an E.R. and its associated hospital over a 2-day period. None of the doctors or nurses or other employees were wearing N95’s. I mean, none. A lot of doctors have trouble even keeping a surgical mask over their noses. A young housekeeping employee wearing a surgical mask that covered his nose part of the time spent 90 minutes cleaning half of a semi-private room, hacking and coughing constantly, while the occupant of the other half of the room and his family member (me) — both high risk because of our ages — had no recourse but to stay there throughout.

I passed by as National Guard brought in to swell the depleted ranks of hospital workers lounged in a public waiting area that featured vending machines. Although the Guard were not eating or drinking, they were wearing their masks under their chins.

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  1. NotTimothyGeithner

    That was the argument from March of 2020. It’s been almost two years. Biden has been president for a year and even had a plan that didn’t require congress announced prior to coming into office, but he didn’t want to. We are discussing masks, not B-22’s.

    Reply ↓
  2. IM Doc

    They told us long ago in the pandemic that n95s were not necessary.

    During the whole double and triple masking debacle, n95s were not discussed in any detail.

    The aerosoloziatin debate has been over to those with brains for some time.

    Why n95s and why now?

    They need to appear to be doing something. This time they may have accidentally in their blundering stumbled upon something that may help.

    And yes you are entirely correct about the hospital situation, not an n95 to be seen. The guard troops in our hospital are not wearing even the rudimentary equipment correctly and out of all of them only one is vaccinated. They are there to cover for the employees who left because of the humiliation measures placed on the unvaxxed.

    Good Times. This whole thing is becoming an overwhelming joke.

Screwball

This entire debate is on mission creep at this point. I watched the entire Joe Rogan interview with Malone, and the one with Peter McCullough as well. I also watched the crew at Breaking Points (Krystal & Saager) talk about the Rogan/Malone/Spoitify issue of censorship. They had a segment on the censorship angle, and had previously covered the Rogan/Malone interview itself. It was obvious Krystal was not a fan of Malone, but they are fans of Rogan (they have been on his show and I think they feel he helped them get exposure).

This week Krystal & Saager had on a Dr. Vinay Prasad for a long segment that was titled “Dr. Vinay Prasad: What McCullough, Malone Get RIGHT & WRONG |Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar.” Link below. I also watched that, and there is a link under that show to a fairly long article written by Prasad (which I read). I took the segment as this guy was proof that Malone is wrong on many things, including the drug that cannot be named doesn’t work.

Then I happened to catch a segment on Jimmy Dore with data from a doctor about the Rogan interview with Malone that was titled ““Fact-Check” Of Joe Rogan Is A GIANT FAIL.” Link below. The main issue here was the claims of myocarditis.

Maybe it’s just me, but I can see bias in all of them, and their reporting. Krystal is NOT a fan of Malone, nor the drug that cannot be named. She is pro vax and pro mandate, has taken the jab as well as giving it to her kids. Jimmy Dore took the jabs but claims to have some long term issues from the shot – so he has become anti-vax it appears.

The funny part, both these segments of Breaking Points and Dore trying to make a case one way or another about Malone/Rogan/truth are using the very same Dr. to make their point – Dr. Vinay Prasad. Odd, IMO.

IMO, the Prasad guy came off quite different in the article he wrote that Dore was citing vs. the way he talked in the interview with Krystal & Saager.

It’s hard today to find the truth, and who you should believe, and not believe. That is why I try to watch a wide spectrum of information and make my own conclusion. What seems to have been lost in all this contradictory information – and what should be first and foremost – does these alternative treatments (early treatment seems to be the key word here, IMO) work???????

At this point, I don’t care what Malone, McCullough, Rogan, Krystal & Saager, Jimmy Dore, or Dr. Vinay Prasad have to say. This has all turned into a giant ball of confusion, bias, and self promotion. And they never seem to talk to Pierre Kory (sp?) who might be worth talking to? I really don’t know at this point, but we have lost the mission.

Where are the adults in the room, and can we have an honest discussion on what actually works and what doesn’t? I mean, you know, we are going on 900,000 dead, and two years into this mess. WTF people????

For those interested, links to Breaking points and Jimmy Dore – both containing Dr. Vinay Prasad.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLsN4CykjkE

IM Doc

I could not agree with you more. It is mass confusion. And there seems to be so much self-promotion out there which is very very confounding. Add that to all the Big Pharma psy-ops going on and you have an absolute disaster.

And you are correct. There are those of us who are active practicing physicians with literally dozens of daily patients who are ill. We have no more idea what to do now than we did in Mar 2020 as far as early therapy for this disease. Lots and lots of good signals on several things and I am of the mind to use them especially if they have good safety profiles. I see positive benefits in my own experience with several of them. However, I have been trained all my life NOT to just rely on my own eyeballs outside of an emergency or outside of an emerging problem. The concern I have right now is it has been two solid years – and our federal agencies have done absolutely nothing in this regard. Nothing. It is unprecedented incompetence.

Now, I am deluged with very angry and frustrated patients, many of whom are in lockstep with your comments above. It is a very ugly situation – and will only get uglier if the next variants step up the heat. There are days I am beside myself.

And yes – self promotion and even hucksterism are a very very big thing right now. This has been aided and abetted by the giant sucking sound of the inaction and dissembling of our federal agencies. When it is clear no one is on point, these kinds of problems are obviously going to flourish.

As a veteran of the AIDS pandemic and its worst years – I would urge everyone to look at the movie DALLAS BUYERS CLUB. That depicts a very real phenomenon that was going on at the time. All about pseudoscience and self promotion. And how it can harm not only patients but medicine itself.

I feel like I am speaking for thousands of PCPs on the front lines. FOR GODS SAKE – WOULD SOMEONE COMPETENT and CAPABLE AND NOT A CORRUPT BUMBLING LIAR BE ALLOWED TO GET IN CHARGE OF THIS THING – There will be no solutions until that simple task is done.


IM Doc

I would agree.

I have become convinced that we are having such large numbers of vaccinated breakthroughs because the vaccinated feel completely bullet proof. Why not? They have been told this for months.

Therefore, they engage in large parties, have the hired help wear masks while the important people party on maskless and they frequent bars and restaurants all the time. Many if not most of them behave as they have not a care in the world.

Then have the gall to be pissed that their entire household is sick all at once. And horrified that after their vaccinated only, negative test only parties that Grandma has to be rushed to the hospital.

And unlike what The View and Rachel and Dr. Wen are telling them, many of their elders end up in the hospital because of this behavior.

There are issues with the unvaccinated behavior as well, a certain complete nihilism and denial. But for the most part, the very at risk unvaccinated have enough sense to take precautions.

Our media and public health establishment are going to have so so much to answer for when the fog has lifted.

You get the idea I am angry – you bet I am angry. I am tired sick of all the unforced errors that our hubris and unquestiongly arrogant confidence is causing. And I get to see people live the consequences every day.

 





Gumnut

Agree. Prof. Tim Specter from the UK Zoe app also just claimed that the unvaccinated are half the cases, which given population vax rate would make them totally overrepresented.

Denmark has successfully burried the data that 2 jabs double your omikron infection risk. And for 3 jabs there is some creative accounting.

And Germany has lost its marbles.

But given the social cost of stepping out of line I am not surprised yet saddened there isn’t more people who know better speaking out.

And that those speaking out are mostly right-leaning and the left is mostly silent (I thought challenging authority was its thing?) is infuriating.

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  1. Lou Anton

    The Maestro did a really nice video/explainer about the fallacy you’re falling prey to – he calls it Simpson’s Paradox (youtube here).

    Reply ↓
    1. IM Doc

      Since we are not being provided with the raw data for complete analysis, it is impossible to know if Simpson’s paradox is at play here. To wit, I have recently heard multiple compelling presentations that the CDC is grossly inflating the percentage of our population that has actually been vaccinated. There are good cases to be made that their models and projections are grossly wrong. Unfortunately, there is precedent just in this pandemic of other things that have been “CDC confirmed” that they have gotten really wrong.

      We have no raw data – we just have layers and layers of statistically manipulated numbers.

      However, I will tell you – from years of sitting in “evidence-based medicine” conferences and lectures, that Simpson’s Paradox is often used to obfuscate evidence by those who have not done their homework.

      In other words – presenters often explain away all kinds of conflicting data – “Oh – you know – Simpson’s paradox would tell us that this dagger through the heart of my hypothesis has to be completely ignored. My data has an agenda to prove – and that contradictory data is easily dismissed. Simpson’s paradox tells us we MUST throw away it all.”

      And Big Pharma has absolutely trained their drug reps and presenters to bring up Simpson’s Paradox anytime anyone asks a hard question.

      In my profession, we no longer use our brains. We just follow the evidence-based science wherever that leads. WINK WINK.

      And look where that has gotten us. As one example, remember the months of 95% 95% 95% we got in 2021. The relative rate reduction is a time honored technique of “evidence-based medicine.” No one bothered to tell the public that the 95% protection they were hearing and understanding had nothing to do with what they thought it meant – nothing but a statistical mind manipulation.

      The vaccines were almost perfect per Drs. Fauci, Walensky and Hotez and others. Never mind that the number was a relative risk reduction ratio that Pharma has been abusing since I was a kid. Those of us old enough to know and with our brains on knew the disaster we were headed into. Hilariously, I heard a true believer about 10 days ago try to use Simpson’s Paradox to dismiss the 95% relative rate reduction statistic. It was never valid to begin with because of Simpson’s paradox, don’t you know? Alrighty then.

      The take home point – YOU CANNOT HAVE EVIDENCE BASED MEDICINE OR EVIDENCE BASED ANYTHING when BIG PHARMA AND THE HEALTH OFFICIALS ARE MASSIVELY MANIPULATING SAID EVIDENCE. Raw data is nowhere to be found and will not be for 75 years. Have you ever wondered why they are doing that?

      I have probably written it out in comments 50 times this year – but I will do it again – RAW DATA PLEASE.

      We have literally had 2 years of doctors who have been marinating in “evidence-based medicine” techniques their whole lives sitting around in a circle jerk and believing their own bullshit.

      I knew this day was coming – but it is not pleasant watching it take place.

Full post:

Covid: “The Narrative Is Crumbling”

Our Covid brain trust had a wee discussion of how the dogs are no longer (much) eating the dog food of vaccines as the magic bullet for all problems Covid. Even if the press is hammering away at the story line, we’re seeing more and more defections…including from those inside the media tent.

Bear in mind that until recently, Kim Iverson was of the “let ‘er rip” school of thinking. Now she’s declaring that the vaccines, even boosts, do perilous little to stop Covid. She tears into the public health establishment for being “hyperfocused” on the vaccies , and the degree of neglect and misinformation amounts to crimes agains humanity. Mind you, our GM has been giving a more cool-headed version of this argument for over a year….but to see a version of it in the mainstream media?

Further consider: the media is a hothouse. Iverson would not dare take a line like this and risk career damage and being shunned socially unless at least a substantial minority of her peers felt the same way.

Iverson also tears into the officialdom for the lack of any guidance about what to do if you get sick except go hide and hope you don’t get so debilitated that you need to call 911. Recall that this isn’t just a problem for lowly patients. IM Doc has repeatedly inveighed against the CDC for failing to give advice to clinicians…one of its most important responsibilities in past infectious disease outbreaks. It’s completely punted with Covid. The US should be ashamed that third world countries are doing better by sending diagnosis and treatment kits to citizens, with care packs including thermometers, blood oximeters, test kits, zinc, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, OTC meds for fever, and sometimes the I drug.

But Iverson’s self-described rant hasn’t fully abandoned her previous view that getting Covid might not be terrible. She highlights “natural immunity” (as opposed to “Covid-induced immunity”) as her #2 topic, and it takes a while for her to work around to her point: If you have gotten Covid, how long are you unlikely to get it again and infect others? She frames it as important to know in terms of being able to care for others. But let’s not kid ourselves: the officialdom has been so fixated on vaccines as the one and only approach to Covid that they’ve been unwilling to concede that having gotten infected some protection.1

And speaking of treatments, IM Doc, who flagged the Iverson video, in recent weeks sent along a discussion of two cases where he was certain the cause of death was remdesivir. His explanation, using one as an example:

This patient although with a high BMI – had not ever had any kind of renal disease in any way but died of acute tubular necrosis – and this is almost always secondary to drug toxic effects. The patient had a CREAT of >7 – (normal being 05.-1.2). Almost assuredly killed by the remdesevir….

Another patient earlier this year shared the same fate.

Did COVID kill them? – No – as there is no evidence that COVID or any other respiratory virus causes this level of renal failure. And this is especially so in the absence of multiple systemic organ failure – when the heart, lungs, liver and brain appear relatively intact – the chance of COVID or any initial infection being the cause of renal failure in isolation is laughably low.

But were they killed by a drug that was being used for COVID? – almost assuredly.

And just try to report that to the FDA – they laugh out loud in your face. And remdesevir is known to nuke kidneys. It happens in up to 1/3 of the patients and was the cardinal reason it was suspended in Ebola. Unfortunately – it does absolutely NOTHING – for the patients – there is no benefit that I have ever been able to see – NOT EVEN ON ONE PATIENT. Almost every country on earth has realized this – and no longer use this agent – except the USA.

However, Iverson makes the mistake of treating mild and asymptomatic cases, particularly among the young, as inconsequential. For starters, an estimated 20% of asymptomatic cases end up with long Covid.

And as GM predicted, Omicron, by not being as well suited to attack the lungs and instead going over ACE2 receptors, which are all over the body, is not much reducing lungs to bloody pulp but instead can producewidespread organ damage which takes a while to manifest.2 Martha r sent this example from a full year ago:

An Eagle River family spent 10 days in an intensive care unit, including Christmas Day, while their 6-year-old son battled a syndrome that presents in some children who have had COVID-19.

All four members of the Dye family tested positive for COVID-19 in November, parents Jerry “Heath” Dye and Hailey Dye said. The Dye children, 2-year-old Lucas and 6-year-old Cameron, barely had any symptoms while Heath Dye and Hailey Dye said they were exhausted.

“The COVID part wasn’t all that bad for us. It seemed like we had the most common symptoms that you hear about and stuff like that. It was more four weeks after — when we — when Cameron got sick and things changed drastically,” Heath Dye said.

In December, Cameron Dye was running a 104.5-degree fever. A large rash started to spread from his ankles up his entire body. The family took him to urgent care, which treated him for strep throat and scarlet fever. The treatment didn’t relieve his symptoms, and in a few days, he was admitted to the ICU at the Children’s Hospital at Providence Alaska Medical Center.

He had congestive heart failure and fluid in his lungs. The doctors said Cameron Dye had multisystem inflammatory syndrome, a new condition that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says comes with inflammation of the major organs in some children four to eight weeks after a COVID-19 diagnosis.

From Mayo’s listing multisystem inflammatory syndrome, dated last November:

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a serious condition that appears to be linked to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Most children who become infected with the COVID-19 virus have only a mild illness. But in children who go on to develop MIS-C, some organs and tissues — such as the heart, lungs, blood vessels, kidneys, digestive system, brain, skin or eyes — become severely inflamed. Signs and symptoms depend on which areas of the body are affected….

Rarely, some adults develop signs and symptoms similar to MIS-C. This new and serious syndrome, called multisystem inflammatory syndrome in adults (MIS-A), occurs in adults who were previously infected with the COVID-19 virus and many didn’t even know it. MIS-A seems to occur weeks after COVID-19 infection, though some people have a current infection.

Note that the Alaska case occurred with the wild type virus, which had neither the brute replication force of Delta or Omicron.

With Omicron being more severe in children and hitting other organs proportionally harder than the lungs than other variants, it looks likely that we’ll see higher levels of multisystem inflammatory syndrome and other long-term ailments than we did in the past.

Returning to the official narrative, GM opined that it still can be spun to serve our putative leaders:

Vaccination has been used to shift the frame of thinking about COVID and that shifting continues.

First, it was a way to shut down any discussion of eliminating the virus. We were going to solve this with vaccines alone, and remember that what was actually peddled was that vaccines stop transmission and that once we vaccinate enough people, transmission will stop. That was known to be false by all that were actually paying attention, but the trick was played very cleverly – people are mortally afraid of being called anti-vaxxers, because that threatens their social class status, so the majority of voices calling for actual infection control went quiet once we had vaccines.

Saying that the vaccines suck and that they have been oversold was enough for you to be labelled anti-vaxxer. I myself have experienced it on numerous occasions.

That has continued ever since but the frame has been gradually shifting — as the vaccines have been eroding it has been still socially unacceptable to say they suck and we cannot rely on them, but meanwhile we moved from saying they stop transmission to saying they are there to prevent you from getting sick, not getting infected, and now to saying that yeah, you can still get sick, but that’s OK, as long as you don’t die. But as that progression has unfolded, most people were successfully accustomed to the view that getting infected and sick is something normal, and the idea that we can actually stop transmission with public health measures was almost completely forgotten.

Also, notice how nobody realizes how quick that has happened — when has previously a vaccine gone from offering insufficient but still pretty good protection to offering very little? Except for flu, but everyone knows flu vaccines sucks, and even if they don’t, they’re only good for a few months. This one, however, was advertised as one-and-done, and even when eventually it had to be acknowledged it will be an annual vaccine (false too, it’s a 3-shots-a-year vaccine right now), that it might suck really bad some years because you can’t reliably predict antigenic drift, as with flu, is never ever mentioned.

But that wasn’t enough, people had to be made happy about getting infected and resistance to corporate pandemic policies had to be completely crushed.

Artificially creating the vaxxer/anti-vaxxer opposition helped to do that with up to a third of the population — for those that whether for political reason or due to previously held anti-vaxxer beliefs didn’t want the vaccine, if they weren’t exactly happy about getting COVID annually before, it now became a personal matter of sticking it to their enemies and oppressors.

But you still have much of the rest of society. Part of it was taken care of once the mainstream media started the campaign that hybrid immunity is the best immunity.

But the vaccine mandates and green passes came into play in order to shift the frame even further. It’s a ridiculously inefficient epidemiologically measure, but it has a repressive character to it.

So what happens? People rail against these things as they see it as impinging on their freedom and as useless because everyone around them is getting it regardless of vaccination status. And that moves them towards being happy to get infected, because they have never been told what that means in the long term.

That effect was also used to sneak in new monstrous policies such as the 5-day isolation — lots of people are genuinely happy about that because apparently few are capable of running the consequences through their heads a few moves ahead and realizing that this does not mean they will be “free” from restriction but that they will be forced to go to work even when they can’t get out of bed and power over their bodily autonomy has been taken away from them and put into the hands of their bosses.

And finally it was used to neuter opposition from the supposedly non-mainstream voices, who turned out to be ignorant about the situation both scientifically and socioeconomically, but who are now openly advocating for letting it rip and ending of vaccine mandates, as if the two things are somehow linked. Because the frame of discourse was moved to present those as the only two possible alternatives.

So now we have this perverse situation in which infection control is seen by many as corporate-driven oppression, when the reality is that corporate interests sabotaged infection control from the start.

But with the potential to further fray official credibility, any Omicron retreat be followed by a new wave:

 

So brace yourselves for a wild ride.

_____

1 The reality is Omicron is so different from previous variants that as we have seen, it greatly diminishes the efficacy of vaccines even among the boosted. And we are now flying blind with how much protection having gotten a previous variant (and then charitably assuming one has a good guess as to which variant it was) vs. Omicron.

1 As GM previously said:

The problem for all of us is that COVID is really three diseases at once:

1. The acute URT infection
2. The hyperinflammatory reaction in the alveoli that causes ARDS
3. The systemic infection that damages hearts, kidneys, beta cells in the pancreas, endothelial cells, the brain (though perhaps not directly), etc.

People mostly die immediately from #2.

They also die from #3, and will be dying of it in very large numbers in the future, but that does not enter the official statistics and thus can be ignored politically.

With Omicron we get worse #1 (high ACE2 in the bronchi and above them in the URT), less severe #2, and we have no direct data on #3, but logic says it is worse, for the same reasons #1 is worse.

But because #2 happens to be the immediate killer that grabs attention, the rest can be ignored with a sufficient amount of propaganda.

And that is what happened.

 

Kevin Smith MD

I suspect that when some of the unvaccinated wind up with Covid, they claim to be vaccinated when they get to a hospital, because they know that quite a few hospital personnel regard the unvaccinated as being the authors of their own misfortune / victims of their own stupidity.

So … this might be skewing the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated

Reply ↓
  1. IM Doc

    I heard this same story this summer when the breakthroughs started showing up among the vaccinated.

    One doctor in our group openly stated in a meeting that all these vaccinated breakthroughs are actually unvaccinated lying and saying they are vaccinated because of social pressure. WE KNOW OUR VACCINES ARE PERFECT, THEREFORE, THIS IS THE ONLY POSSIBLE REASON FOR BREAKTHROUGHS.

    How did that work out for him?

    Within two weeks, his fully vaccinated wife was in the hospital with COVID.

    In brief, I think that the phenomenon you describe above is not happening at all. In fact, there are a few recently vaccinated or just one dose being called unvaxxed.

Carla

“I find this discussion of whether or not people are lying about being vaccinated very curious. I’ve not heard anyone discussing refusing treatment for the vaccinated who have high blood pressure, who are obese, have diabetes or have some commorbidity one associates with “lifestyle choices”. ”

I’m with you, Brian. The idea of refusing medical care to anyone because of decisions they may have made is repugnant. I hope you also agree that health care is a human right, and our current health care non-system is an abomination.

When you say “I have none of these factors [comorbidities] because I have made different choices,” however, you kinda lose me… unless you mean you chose to be born to different parents, who raised you in a different socio-economic milieu, made sure you benefited from a superb diet and excellent medical care in the womb and throughout childhood (as they in fact had insured their own parents had done for them). And perhaps you chose to be grow up in an environment free of toxins as well.

I am appalled by the cruel, judgemental and ignorant attitudes toward unvaccinated people, but no more so than by the same attitudes when they are expressed about smokers, overweight individuals, or those with other health challenges.

Reply ↓
  1. IM Doc

    What you are saying above in your comment, Carla, was a fundamental tenet of medical ethics for generations.

    The only physician who ever won the Nobel PEACE prize was Albert Schweitzer. And on the road to his clinics and buildings in the Heart of Africa was a sign that stated simply – WE WILL TURN NO ONE AWAY.

    I have over the years taken care of countless scores of patients – hundreds – with whom I had big-time disagreements about the choices they had made. I was trained from day one that I was not to be the judge and jury – I was to be to calm in the storm. I see this vaccine issue as no different. It is my job to come to their level, inhabit their world and thinking, and come up with some way to exit the problems of their life.

    I have been taught by my elders all my life – THERE BUT FOR THE GRACE OF GOD GOETH I. I take that to heart every single day of my life.

    As you can imagine, I have been absolutely horrified by all the videos and tweets that younger physicians have been making this past year about the denigration of the unvaxxed. It is truly evil. It is not representative of the Hippocratic Oath – the Nuremberg Code – or the Helsinki Declarations. One of the first things done when all the billioinaires started buying off the medical schools was the perversion of medical ethics to fit their wants and needs. It is no surprise whatsoever that one of the loudest mouthpieces for “medical ethics” trotted out by our main stream media is Dr. Cohn of Langone (Home Depot) NYU Med School. I have seen him repeatedly on TV of late denigrating the unvaxxed and trying to suggest ways to take away their rights. To humble and humiliate them. I know it is hard for non-medical people to understand – but these ideas would have been considered evil and abhorrent just a generation ago – and are now being promulgated by ethicists from one of our premier institutions.

    For those who think that ethics should be suspended in a time like this – you are entirely wrong. Our medical code of ethics was largely constructed in the immediate aftermath of people like Mengele. They were written in good times – to be used in good times and bad. Especially the bad. So things like Mengele would never happen again. They were doing their best to protect future generations – us – from unspeakable evil. To throw all that out the window is an unpardonable sin.

    Some days, it is all too much for me to contemplate.

Lupana

A minor question but Home Depot owns NYU’s medical school? If so, is this true for most med schools now – where they are owned by corporations?

Reply ↓
  1. IM Doc

    No, there are many medical centers that have now been subsumed with billionaire funding – they do not “own” them – but the administration faculty and staff sure know what orders from headquarters means.

    The Ken Langone who has given so much that they changed the name of NYU to NYU Langone was the founder of Home Depot.

    The Zuckerberg Hospital at UCSF is named for Mark Zuckerberg CEO of Facebook who gave them hundreds of millions.. Please note how many of the vociferous pro-vaccine names are from UCSF. There may be a reason for that.

    It is even happening in the smaller tier medical schools all across the country – see for example – the Schusterman Medical Center at the University of Oklahoma –

    I could go on and on.

    This cash is not without strings. I have personally been at many meetings where the exchange was rendered despite extreme misgivings of the faculty involved.

Howard Beale IV

A 31-year-old man in need of a heart transplant has been bumped from the transplant list at Brigham and Women’s Hospital because he won’t get vaccinated against Covid-19, CBS Boston reports.

Said Dr. Arthur Caplan: “The flu could kill you, a cold could kill you, Covid could kill you. The organs are scarce, we are not going to distribute them to someone who has a poor chance of living when others who are vaccinated have a better chance post-surgery of surviving.”

Source: https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/01/24/covid-19-vaccine-heart-transplant-boston-brigham-womens/

Reply ↓
  1. urblintz

    How ghoulish is that?

    If anyone can die of anything then why is Caplan putting those scarce organs in anybody?

    He should lose his license to practice medicine.

    Reply ↓
    1. Raymond Sim

      You’re calling a man who puts dead people’s hearts into other people’s bodies a ghoul? I’m pretty sure a ghoul would just eat them.

      Reply ↓
      1. urblintz

        The answer to your first question is yes, and I appreciate the second’s ghoulish humor… I’m a big fan of Edward Gorey.

        Reply ↓
  2. IM Doc

    This is exactly the same Dr. Caplan (sorry I called him Dr. Cohn yesterday) I was referencing yesterday – he is the chief medical ethicist at NYU Langone (Home Depot) Medical Center. I guess we have a different billionaire in this article – Grossman – I am going to have to research that and why the sudden name difference.

    Dr. Caplan is the ethicist brought out all the time to do whatever possible to denigrate the unvaxxed when the MSM needs a go-to-guy to do this kind of dirty work.

    I have been involved in medical ethics as an academic physician for many years. I believe I am speaking for most of my colleagues in that field – it is highly inappropriate for any medical ethics professional to make public comments about any specific case. Unbelievably immoral.

    Furthermore, trying to place a very complicated patient like a transplant patient into your repeatedly stated worldview that the unvaxxed are sinners needing punishment is just over the top.

    I had a very very similar situation a few months ago. As the PCP, I discussed the situation professionally with multiple physicians. And we all together decided NOT to COVID or FLU vaccinate the patient prior to transplant. And he is doing splendidly. You would never know that actually not vaccinating transplant patients may be the best course of action listening to Dr. Caplan. They are very complicated and each patient is very different.

    When I was in the big city, the media called me ever once in a while to opine on the ethics of an unfolding medical event. I politely told them every single time that I would not dream of making any comments about a patient’s medical condition or course. It was wholly inappropriate for me to do so.

    How dare these ethics “experts” like Dr. Caplan do this kind of thing in an unfolding situation like this. It is completely and totally unprofessional and makes me question the credibility of anything coming out of his
     

[a little Freudian-slip humor] IM Doc noticed this “advertising faux pas”:

IM Doc

One of the things of which I am so profoundly grateful in my life is growing up learning how to tend to plants, gardens, greenhouses, and orchards.

The skill of building greenhouses and bee hives and placing trees in orchards and tending to them to force them to fruit – are lessons that were taught to me that I now find invaluable.

I have set aside entire corners of the yard and greenhouses as testing grounds for all kinds of vegetables and fruit that I cross-hybridize myself. Over the years I have come up with quite a collection.

I do not need to order seeds. We have everything I need and always let 2 or 3 of each kind of plant go to seed every late summer and autumn. I have come up repeatedly with my own cultivars in multiple types of vegetables that taste better or produce more fruit.

My family and I canned and stored hundreds of bottles of produce this past summer. My kids sell the preserves of all kinds of berries and fruit in the farmer’s market – and we have all the food we need for the year except for the staples like flour and sugar and some types of fruit.

All organic – all the time. We live next door to large pasture of cattle grazers – and the cow manure is in endless supply for the compost every fall. (All our cows here are antibiotic free – and hormone free).

It is often bittersweet for me to teach the kids – because I remember being a kid with my elders over my shoulder the whole time I am working with them. It is all worth it when they hybridize an awesome rose or poppy or whatever that makes their mother smile.

And we have suddenly an endless line of 4H kids who cannot wait to have a summer of lessons – to learn how to tend to plants to make your family’s food.

This is hard work. But it keeps me young at heart. As much as I am upset by COVID, there are always good things in life to keep you grounded.


IM Doc

The fraud is overwhelming on all sides.

When I was vaccinated, I was asked to sign an informed consent document. Unfortunately, informed consent cannot really be obtained on a product where neither the safety nor the efficacy is known.

I am looking at the document right at this minute – it clearly states “This vaccination has not been approved by the FDA. It is being given to you under an Emergency Use Authorization…….This vaccination is for the PREVENTION OF COVID-19. Emphasis mine.

I just had a patient show me the informed document they were given this week, and then chickened out on actually being vaccinated after reading that…. They said, Doc, it seems to me that this vaccine is not really preventing COVID. I am not sure I want to participate in anything with such obvious lying. In other words, the messaging about PREVENTING COVID from early 2021 is STILL ON THE DOCUMENTS. Who in their right mind seeing all that is going on around us would not have questions?

And, yes, one version of the Pfizer vaccine has been approved, Comirnaty, however, to this day, that is not the version of the vaccine being given in the USA. Should they ever do that, they will instantly have to be much more forthcoming with all the side effects on their advertising and materials.

But further than that – anyone with a brain would know the gig was up the minute they were vaccinated in early 2021. The cards are paper – and all that was done on mine was a handwritten lot number and date. Only later was I to find that my vaccination was nowhere in the official electronic database. So – my vaccinated self – when I became ill with delta COVID in the summer – was listed in the official statistics as UNVACCINATED. It took me an entire 8 weeks an numerous phone calls and certified mail to get that changed on the computer databases. How many people are going to be willing to do that? Unfortunately – as I have been deluged with patients this past month, I cannot begin to tell you how many of them have their fully filled out cards – including boosters – but are NOWHERE to be found in the electronic database. They get counted as UNVAXXED. My two vaccinated patients in the hospital admitted on Thursday – again – nowhere to be found in the database – they are counted as unvaccinated.

This is all really quite the joke, is it not? The numbers from the USA are wholly unreliable to follow about any of this situation. Look to Israel and certain European countries. We are flying completely blind here.

And I fielded ALL kinds of questions early on when people would show me their cards – “Dr IMDoc, Dr. Fauci is telling us there will be no boosters – then why do they have all these other lines for future injections on these cards?”

I am sick and tired of the whole thing. I am sick and tired of covering up and minimizing the lies and missteps. I have refused to make excuses for the past few weeks. It has done much for my mental health.

It is a complete fiasco. Anyone who accuses of anyone of lying or being deceptive about these things – in the mass chaos that is present – is not seeing patients on a daily basis like I am. I am certain there is some degree of fraud out there – but that is nothing in comparison to the disaster that is our public health record keeping.

I will say again – medicine and public health have torched the entire credibility of generations in just two years – it will likely take generations to recover if ever.

I take no pleasure in saying that – but it is the truth. Like no time before, I am having extreme numbers of patients balk at vaccines that are actually really safe and effective – pneumovax being the prime example. Again – why would they trust a thing that my profession is peddling? We allowed people like Rachel Maddow/The View/Dr. Wen and Big Pharma “expert” whores to peddle this whole thing to the public for the past 2 years.

We have politicized and weaponized our health apparatus. We have set up systems like these crappy vaccine cards that a kindergarten student could tell are going to be ripe for fraud. We live in the most computerized society on earth but cannot set up a functional national database for these vaccines.. And in my profession, way too many of us think this is all going to be OK.

Good luck with that. Shame on us. Shame on us all.


CASD

I don’t understand why you don’t ask your Endo how to dose the $25 insulin available at Walmart, while not ideal it works in a pinch. There are also several dozen T1D forums that would have helped you out. No one should have to put up with a bunch of insurance BS for a life saving drug, but if you had used a different approach than leaning in to the most difficult pathway it would not have been as dire. If I asked for help on those forums, I would have the insulin I needed tomorrow, same with my Endo of GP, if I called them telling them I needed help dosing Walmart insulin, they would be on the phone with me in an hour.

Reply ↓
  1. IM Doc

    This is not a valid answer in many states of this country.

    After much Pharma lobbying when all the newer insulin products started coming out, Lantus, Tresiba, Levemir and others, many states now characterize the old standbys of NPH and Regular Insulin as animal products. In large swaths of the country, they are completely banned. In a few states, they are available OTC just as meat is available.

    It is a total mishmash and a total disgrace.

    And thanks to Obamacare plans with their stratospheric deductibles, I have all kinds of younger type I patients who literally struggle to feed their family from Jan 1 until about June or so when their deductibles are met. Imagine yourself as a 25 year old father of three trying desperately to survive and working two jobs and having to pay 800 bucks a month for insulin. For years until the Obamacare deductibles started, it was unusual to admit a DKA in an established diabetic. I admitted two this week. It was pay the rent on Tuesday or pay for insulin. Not both. And no one cares. One of Biden’s first executive orders was to rescind the paltry help a Trump executive order had given to these young people.

    Yes Americans, that is Obamacare in action.

    There is something that gets you seeing a 26 year old father in a coma in the ICU with his two kids and wife looking on in horror.

    I really feel that instead of meditating on the New York Times so much, our ruling class should be marinating in The Sermon on the Mount. I know political heroes in my lifetime like Moynihan, Kennedy, and MLK used to bring that passage up all the time. Our current crop of politicos probably do not even know what it is. Maybe a preacher in Aspen, or something like that.

CASD

The Walmart insulin is available (for humans) in every state but Indiana, where Lilly has blocked it. They have expanded their line last year even.

Reply ↓
  1. IM Doc

    I live close and somewhat close to 4 different states. I have visited WalMart in all 4 unfortunately. I have yet to see “Walmart insulin” in any of them. I have asked the pharmacies in 2 locations in 2 states and have been told they do not carry it. It was absolutely available in the state in which I used to practice assuming they did not have inventory issues which was very common.

timbers

“my new employer-provided insurance wouldn’t cover insulin without something called a prior authorization.”

This makes no sense to me, because if medical records are “portable” shouldn’t your new insurance have access to more than sufficient evidence of what they need? If it than what’s the point of portable in the first place?

Reply ↓
  1. IM Doc

    A prior authorization is needed on most everything that is more than about 100 dollars or so a month.

    We have to process about 30-50 of these a day in my office. I would say the acceptance rate is about 98%. It is unusual – maybe once a week – that I have to talk to the insurance company myself. In brief, the entire prior auth system is a total waste of time.

    The paperwork is profoundly time consuming. The prior authorization system is a fairly recent situation. This simply did not happen until about 5-7 years ago. Now, I have 1.5 full time staff members in the office – doing nothing but processing these – pushing paper – all day long. A completely useless task, again, given the fact that 98% of the time – it is accepted.

    When you cannot get hold of your physician, or they are late with your lab results, or you cannot get answers – please realize that your PCP office has to devote all these resources to this useless garbage task – or many will not get their meds. It, among many other useless bureaucratic tasks have completely overwhelmed the PCP office these days.

    I am old enough to remember what a scandal it was when FOSAMAX was introduced – and was going to cost a dollar a pill. In those days, the entire office was devoted to customer and patient service. Those 2 items rank nowhere now. We are just desperately trying to get the very sick their meds so they will not die.

    When you hear about all the PCPs retiring and resigning – you can thank the above problem and the abomination that is the EMR – on top of having moron MBAs in charge.

    Thank you very much – Obamacare. For you had a hand in ALL of these things happening to medicine.

    Since the advent of Obamacare – has your medical care and service gotten better or worse?


 
temporaryreality: (Default)
 Last half of December 2021.

First, a full post - note that copy/paste was misbehaving this time around and the usually-available embedded media isn't showing up.:

Likewise, I'm being smacked with some weird formatting that's creating a table-like effect, which I don't want and which didn't show up when I first prepared this post. This may be something I have to keep playing with, so there may be modifications in the next few days.

Omicron: Fog of Information and Definitions

It’s a bit disconcerting to find we are a day further into a fast moving crisis yet I don’t have the sense anything both new and meaningful has emerged. But it still seems useful to try to clarify some of the claims floating about as well as a few new Omicron factoids that that have emerged but seem a lot less dispositive than the press enthusiasm would have you believe.

As usual we are very grateful for the help of our Covid Brain Trust and I am quoting more liberally from them than I did our also very valuable Brexit Brain Trust. The reason for hewing to our sources’ words more closely is I don’t want my interpretation to distort meaning.

And What Pray Tell Do You Mean By Severe?

Alarms appear to have gone off at WHO and the CDC after a spell of “initial signs are that Omicron isn’t that bad:

https://t.co/Xsr5nVgQRP



 

Oddly we have to go to Daily Mail rather than Twitter for a pointed recap of our CDC’s more downbeat outlook:

CDC issues grim forecast warning that weekly COVID cases will jump by 55% to 1.3 MILLION by Christmas Day and that deaths will surge by 73% to 15,600 a week as Omicron becomes dominant strain

And remember, even if Omicron is actually is less nasty on average, it’s so highly transmissive that hospitals will be overwhelmed:

 

And there is an offset that Thomas Peacock, the scientist first to post on B.1.1.529 before it was called even that, noticed immediately: that it probably evades monoclonal antibodies. Our GM was quite certain that would be the case, and our IM Doc now has pretty some pretty sick patients who are not responding at all to Regeneron, which has an EUA for use as a Covid treatment and is generally seen as effective. German researchers confirmed yesterday that Regeneron’s and Eli Lilly’s Covid treatments are not effective against Omicron. GlaxoSmithKline’s cocktail Xevudy still appears to work in vitro, but that may not translate as well in vivo.

The loss of some, perhaps all, monoclonal antibodies as Omicron remedies means that some patients that could otherwise have been treated outside a hospital will wind up being admitted. This is an offset to any average reduction in severity.

So it should not come as any surprise that, so far, deaths in Gauteng are tracking previous Covid waves:

 

Yet as our GM was correct to warn, the “mild” meme, as the hot take meant to preserve Christmas festivities and shopping, has become anchored. The press is pumping out even more articles to try to normalize Covid, such as the Atlantic’s Don’t Be Surprised When You Get Omicron. Gee, how about instead running a public service piece like “What You Need to Do to Not Get Omicron.”

GM reacted, quoting the article and then commenting:

One by one, the symptoms I knew so well on paper made their real-life debut: cough, fever, fatigue, and a loss of smell so severe, I couldn’t detect my dog’s habitually fishy breath.

Mild brain damage.

Once you know you’re infected, hang tight, limit your encounters with other people, and just take care of yourself.

As discussed earlier today, all the effective treatments need to be started early on. So what exactly is the advice to “just take care of yourself” on your own going to achieve?

And what are they going to do with the monoclonals and Omicron? There is only sotrovimab [GlaxoSmithKline] that actually still works and that is presumably in very short supply. But do they still refuse to give to the vaccinated (which are no longer actually vaccinated)?

IM Doc was even more disturbed:

This article is a sterling example of the vaccine only mantra.

“Stay home and take care of yourself.”

This is the terminal lunacy of VAX VAX VAX.

The problem is that many of these people are being told to stay home while they are turning blue and coughing up their lungs. And this week in my area 85% of the COVID outpatients are fully vaccinated with 30% of those boostered. It is as if the entire medical industrial complex has learned not a fucking thing in 2 years.

I cannot tell you how ashamed I am of where my profession is today.

The fact that our media is still putting out this kind of tripe to mislead the masses is yet another sign of the mass delusion.

IM Doc pointed out how the “mild” meme was doublespeak:

I think Americans think of “mild” as a head cold. I think the medical establishment thinks of “mild” as not being admitted. The non-admitted, however, can be violently ill, trust me.

GM wanted to understand exactly what “violently ill” meant. IM Doc again:

That is a medical intern phrase – it means very very sick – but not quite hospital level. And it is also very age dependent – younger people can handle this much better than older people.

I have 7 patients with COVID right now that my office and I are calling twice daily. They would all fall into this category.

By definition, they all have someone to watch them at home.

Some of the symptoms we are dealing with today – temps up to 103, severe shaking racking chills, sweating enough to soak the sheets 1-2 times daily, severe coughing, vomiting their guts up, severe myalgias.

These people are sicker than just a flu. However, not quite admission. Mind you, the criteria for admission has been higher lately, we have just not had the bed space – and people really do not want to be in the hospital.

This is most definitely not the average course of influenza….

We do not really have people deteriorating where they cannot get them to the hospital on time. WE KEEP A VERY TIGHT LEASH ON THEM. Unfortunately I do not think many Americans have a primary care practice that does this.

They also have very strict parameters to call us instantly.

And I call them twice a day. Most of the time there are 5-7 people. Some days upwards of 15. The highest has been 22 – but that is absolutely not the norm. It really gets quite crazy.

This is the large reason why I and my staff are so exhausted. To keep them out of the hospital and safe at home is just enormous amounts of work.

Unfortunately, I think myself and my practice are the extreme exception. I do not get the idea this level of care is being done by most practices. I just feel obligated to keep them at home as best we can.

IM Doc also underscored yesterday that even though he might have some Omicron cases (due to failure to respond to Regeneron) it was still too early in the course of a normal Covid case for any to be admitted.

Delta-Omicron Recombination Unlikely

Some readers were concerned by news reports of Moderna’s chief medical officer telling MPs that Delta and Omicron might recombine. GM was perplexed. His reaction was even if that happened, it would not appear to give the new variant any real advantage. But Delta and Omicron circulating at the same time (as opposed to Omicron pretty quickly becoming dominant) could still be very nasty. GM:

There isn’t much that Omicron can obviously gain from Delta and vice versa. Omicron has the immune escape, it has FCS enhancement, it has the N protein packaging improvement, it has the Nsp6 deletion, so what exactly is there in Delta that will make it fitter by recombination? And vice versa — Delta has those transmission enhancing features too. Some of the AYs have accumulated further ORF and Nsp mutations, so there might be some room for improvement there, but it will be marginal.

The bigger problem will be that you will have sick people in the same rooms in hospitals and they might become cross-infected, which should worsen the outcomes.

The Lack of Interest in Treatments

Biomedical professor KLG had said from the get-go that he expected the approach to Covid to come to depend heavily on treatments, as it has with HIV. The fact that we have instead gone all in with limited efficacy, comparatively short-lived vaccines is a big departure.

PlutoniumKun of our Brexit brain trust had found some hints in the Japanese press that Japanese doctors were prescribing Ivermectin and added:

From what I understand of the Japanese medical system, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they are giving it to patients without telling them….Those who have lived in Japan will confirm I think that getting a straight answer from a Japanese doctor on any medical topic is nearly impossible.

Epidemiologist Ignacio noted:

One of the problems with Ivermectin, IMO, is the hospital-centric view that dominates medicine. It is well known that some approaches with medicines might work in early stages of infection (very early so as to be considered nearly preemptive) and only or mostly work if administered timely. This is, or can be the case of Ivermectin. When you go an do clinical trials the result is “It has no effect” and that might be the case if the design of the trial results in too late delivery to notice an effect. But in real life practice it might be the case that words have circulated among Japanese doctors in the sense that it indeed does something.

IM Doc described how the CDC has hung doctors out to dry:

When you have been doing this as long as I have, you have a memory of what happened before and with that comes certain expectations about what should be happening now. I think that is what separates the older than 55 crowd from the under 40 crowd.

We do not even have to go back to AIDS. I am thinking of the last 2 events in my career where there was exceptional involvement from the CDC. In 2018, we had the vaping crisis. In 2012 or thereabouts, we had the West Nile issue. Although that virus had been with us since 2001 here in the USA, it really exploded in the summer of 2012 in the Deep South in the USA. I will not include the 2014 Ebola problem. The CDC was very involved there but that never really had to be taken nationally, these other 2 examples did.

In both cases, there was frequent, at times weekly updating from the CDC about treatment options and guidelines. There was intense discussion of what seemed to be working and what did not. In both cases, these treatment options were obviously non-approved for these purposes by the FDA. There was a crisis, and this is what we have available, and this is how you should be using them. This is what works. This is what does not work. And this is our evidence why we feel the way we do. This was constant from the CDC in both cases.

That has simply not happened at all in COVID. Here we are 2 years into this. There is not a single shred of treatment advice from the CDC outside of the inpatient setting. Let’s face it – most antiviral efforts have to be done immediately. That would mean where I work in an outpatient setting is the golden hour. If we wait till the patients are in the hospital they are going to have much worse outcomes. The agencies are saying nothing about outpatient therapy and have put forth nothing. We have worldwide studies on fluvoxamine, ivermectin, HCQ, steroids, VIT D, VIT C, Zinc, and I am sure there are many others. We now have monoclonal AB. A question – have you ever heard Dr. Fauci discuss monoclonal AB in a positive way? If you have please show it to me.

There has been no guidance at all about any of these therapy options. There has been lots of censoring, hectoring, belittling, and confusion. It is unusual to find a physician willing to engage any of these therapies, despite some of them having overwhelming positive signals in early outpatient therapy.

There is not ONE single bullet. By now, 2 years into this we should be throwing all kinds of things at these patients – anti-virals, anti-clotting agents, anti-inflammatory agents. But we are doing nothing.

Again, our CDC has done nothing to help with this at all. NOTHING. Not only the CDC. In previous events, there was treatment advice flowing from medical schools around the country. CRICKETS.

We have gone all in on the vaccine approach and have done so from the beginning.

Now, the bill is due. My office is literally flooding with vaxxed and boosted patients that are very ill. We are in a precarious situation with the hospitals of America. They are in much worse shape employee-wise than many Americans would dare dream.

I feel all alone. I feel it is my sworn job to keep as many of these people safe and out of the hospital as possible. But there is literally no help from the CDC at all VAX VAX VAX. Here is the problem – about 85% of these patients in my practice that are now positive and getting sicker by the day are already VAXED Many of them boostered. We are in the middle of a crisis with the hospitals – and we simply cannot fill them up the way we have.

Hyping of Way Too Preliminary Report of Omicron Bronchial Replication

This finding is being hyped in the mainstream media, such as Reuters, as if Omicron won’t take hold in the lungs and will nicely and courteously stay up in your bronchial passages:

 

Help me. It typically takes five to seven days from symptom onset for Covid to produce viral pneumonia, in cases where it advances that far. The NHS indicates that the most rapid onset of garden variety pneumonia is 24 to 48 hours, with several days more common, strongly implying that 24 hours is bleeding edge.

Thus concluding anything about possible disease evolution at 24 hours for pathogen that normally takes well over a week after exposure to get really ugly (recall symptom onset averages 5 days after exposure) is quite a stretch.

GM was also skeptical and pointed out that Delta was hard to make behave in vitro and that may be true of Omicron, further complicating reaching early conclusions:

They found greatly increased replication in bronchus cells but reduced replication in lower lung tissue.

And now the narrative is that it is becoming an URT [upper respiratory tract] infection.

But this makes no sense — in the same plot they have Delta showing the same pattern, and Delta was more severe than WT [wild type], not less, and this is what every study finds, so it’s not even controversial.

And they tested this only up to 48 hours, but that is not how this works in actual human bodies — it starts as an URT infection then moves further down. So if you have 70 times more virus in the middle lung, you should be seeding a lot more of it in the lower lung, even if it replicates a bit less there, and the net effect is negative…

Everyone is in a mad rush to put out results as quickly as possible and as a result they are not even thinking how damaging putting out incomplete data with premature conclusions can be…

But there is more to this story.

Another factoid, from Vineet Menachery:

https://twitter.com/TheMenacheryLab/status/1471258680511369217

“A bit inside virology, but #omicron grows very poorly and causes very little CPE. This makes interpretation of replication data difficult since most measures are dependent on CPE based measures. Doesn’t mean that data is wrong, but magnitudes maybe a bit fuzzy.”

Menachery is someone who studied coronaviruses before the pandemic, i.e. one of the few OG coronavirus scientists and someone who knows this stuff inside out

But apparently Delta is not that easy to grow either. Yet both are hypertransmissible. So there is some major poorly understood difference between in vivo and in vitro…

Then this preprint came out too:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10..1101/2021.12.12.472252v1

Which is mostly yet another neutralization study, but the supplement is interesting:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2021/12/13/2021.12.12.472252/DC1/embed/media-1.pdf

Figure S2.

Here, they grew it up to 96 hours in VeroE6 cells.

And you see a curious thing — Delta shoots up real fast, but even WT [wild type] grows much better than Omicron, which initially goes down at from 0 to 48 and only then ramps up.

Yet it is hypertransmissible like nothing seen before…

I have no explanation nor can I square any of this (or any putative reduced virulence) with the mutations in the virus.

It’s a wait and see for the fog to disperse…


Yves Smith

That is the worst dog ate my homework I have ever seen, and I have quite a few. IM Doc noticed too:

I am informed by a reliable source that the initial data was looking overwhelmingly amazing.

I have been doing this for 30 years , a decade and a half on an IRB.

I have to say I have never heard one time of a major medical study like this not being able to secure meds. It would be one thing if it was a difficult boutique hard to manufacture oncology drug.

But a drug that is being given millions of times daily all over the world?

Yves Smith

Please refresh your browser or reopen in a new page. The full post is up, not sure why you are not seeing it.

And relying on T-cell immunity is not a hot idea with a pathogen that one can get repeatedly. New T-cells are made by the thymus, as you probably know, and that’s pretty much done by adulthood. Doctors are already seeing T-cell derangement and exhaustion. We hoisted this from an e-mail by IM Doc in an earlier post:

Another concerning thing I am beginning to hear from my oncology friends is the absolute explosion of soft tissue cancers [note that is old school nomenclature] that are happening. This is especially true of malignant melanoma and renal cell carcinoma. One of my oncology colleagues noted to me the other day that he found it very troubling that these two in particular were going parabolic – the two soft tissue cancers whose etiology most have to do with a disordered immune system. Lymph tumors like lymphoma and myeloma are also apparently going off the charts as well.

And GM’s reply:

This was predicted already last year when it became clear what the virus does to T cells.

You go through a large T-cell exhaustion and derangement event and then you have fewer of them to monitor your own cells for malignancies. Thus one of the key mechanisms through which the body cleanses itself of tumors is diminished. An aged immune system is not so good with dealing with them, which is one reason (along with the sheer accumulation of mutations over time) why old people get cancer so much more frequently.

Well, the virus directly causes derangement of cellular immunity so logically it should also cause an explosion in cancers. If what your are seeing is confirmed as a trend, and if it’s these two types specifically that are exploding that is quite solid supporting evidence, then that hypothesis will turn out to be have been correct.

And that’s a slow ticking time bomb that is only now starting to go off…


 

Ancient Greek drug could cut COVID-19 deaths – Israeli scientist Jerusalem Post. IM Doc:

Yes – that may really work – colchicine has been an amazing all around anti-inflammatory drug for centuries. It is being used more and more for all kinds of stuff.

When I was fresh out in practice, literally a 2 liter bottle of pills could be had for pennies.

Then a few years ago – colchicine got SHKRELI’d – and it is now hundreds of dollars for 5 days.

Notice though how in Israel it is described as cheap medication –

Well – it is everywhere else in the world – but not in the USA. It was 30 years ago – but not anymore.

And about Pharma patents. Since this drug was used heavily by Henry VIIII for his gout – seriously doubt it is a patent. No – it was our own stupidity and greed that allowed the fleecing to occur. They are now slowly doing the same exact thing to insulin.

 

IM Doc

A bit of an update for my NC friends.

Things in my world are clearly headed off the rails.

All last week, we were experiencing a daily increase in ill COVID patients in the office. This is now becoming vertical. We have not been officially told that we have any Omicron in my area, however, things have subtly changed. I will repeat, I am not sure we are dealing with Omicron or with the long-dreaded Delta winter surge. It is hard to know with the testing regime that has been cobbled together right now.

The promised testing improvements under the Biden administration have failed to materialize. Indeed, things may be worse now. We have so so many patients doing testing on their own that numbers cannot be accurately maintained. But those kits are really becoming scarce, and unless they have been hoarded, they are not available. The medical system testing remains grotesquely spotty and intensely expensive. This complete shitshow would actually be funny if peoples lives were not depending on it.

How have things changed? – Way way more vaccinated and boostered patients are now becoming positive. Many of them quite ill. Indeed, as OUTPATIENTS, I would say our vaccinated ill is basically on par with the vaccinated population at large. The same is true of the boosters. So, basically, just like Denmark, we seem to be at complete par. Ergo, the vaccines are basically worthless for transmission of the virus. So far, it remains about 60-40 unvaccinated-vaccinated in the hospital. However, the vaccinated are becoming more and more ill. And unfortunately, are needing to be admitted. This is NOT just nursing home patients. On the other side of the coin, for those who believe that natural immunity is the golden ticket, I have news for you. I have been steadfastly telling the brain trust that I have yet to see a previously infected non-vaccinated patient come in with COVID symptoms again. Well – that run is now over. I have seen two in the past 2 days. We will see how this trend develops in the coming days.

The symptoms are changing as well. For the majority, it is a bad head cold. But for those who are really ill, the respiratory symptoms that used to predominate are now replaced with intense nausea-inducing headaches at times leading to severe vomiting, intense fever, chills, and now I have been seeing a few patients with intense diarrhea. Interestingly, the muscle cramps and pain seem to all of a sudden be really bad.

Also, there is some decrease in a few patients in efficacy with the monoclonal antibodies. They just do not seem to be working as well as they did for some people. Furthermore, these treatments are being heavily restricted and patients must now meet strict criteria to get them. I have been told there is quite a supply problem. I am not sure that is true – just the scuttlebutt. It is alarming to me that intense preparation was not done on these anti-virals by our officials – but as Lambert pointed out in the links above from the Vice-President, it is clear that further variants were not even on the radar of our officials this year. Omicron came out of nowhere, don’t you know. Who could have expected this to happen? And it was also crystal clear that this antibody therapy was not on Dr. Fauci’s or Biden’s list of things to take care of. If you live in certain states like Texas or Florida and others, your governor and health officials had the foresight to secure your own supply, limited as it may be. Everywhere else – well – good luck. We are spending our time on vaccine mandates and passports for a non-sterilizing vaccine.

Sorry, if I sound very bitter – it is because I am. I get to watch people suffer every day because of the gross incompetence on display at almost every level of this country.

We had one big group of patients the other day from a big holiday party. It was the same despicable scene of all the guests showing proof of vaccination and a recent COVID test – running around the party unmasked, while the hired help all were masked. I know this because I saw the pictures and videos of the party. 12 fully vaccinated older ladies and 3 staff, many boostered, many fat and diabetic – 11 of the 15 are now positive, 3 in the hospital and 1 is fighting for her life. One of the daughters informed me this weekend that the very ill mother had told her twice that Joy on The View had repeatedly stated this year that parties were great if everyone is vaccinated. This misinformation is causing severe health problems for the viewers. Where are the Youtube and Twitter censors for this? This is hubris of the first order. As I have repeatedly stated, the Ancient Greeks believed the only entity able to clean up Hubris was Nemesis.

Let me put it this way – Santa is not the only character that is going to be flying through the midnight clouds this week. When Nemesis comes, she is like a thief in the night.

Part of being an excellent physician is to constantly assume everything will be the worst case scenario – and work for that not to happen. I apologize if over the past months, I have been a bit of a downer – it is how I work – always assume the worst case and prepare accordingly. All the while being the Rock of Gibraltar for your patients and their families. That is guidance that has streamed through medicine from the most ancient of times. I must say I do not have a good feeling about this at all. Our hospital, like many others across the country, is now with a very diminished crew. Our federal officials have not only not helped, they have actively done things to make this situation infinitely worse.

Again – I do not know if what I am experiencing is actually Omicron. And I would like to add as a medical professional for 30 years, I am just as confused as everyone else about our chances with Omicron. It is all fog right now – hopefully this will not be that bad. The next few weeks will be telling. I am praying daily.

I am likely going to be so busy the next few weeks that I will not be around here much. I will absolutely stay in touch with Yves and Lambert and the brain trust. But I have this feeling a tsunami is on the way.

This is what I would tell everyone to do right now – Be mindful of everyone in your life. Help those and look after those in your world who cannot help themselves. Elder and ill should not be in the grocery stores or post office or whatever in the coming weeks. Please please look after every one of them in your life. If you are fat, do something about it starting today. Walk, run, get out in the sun. De-stress. Sleep well. Eat exceedingly well. Get off the Doritos and Dr. Pepper. Start taking VIT D 4000 units daily today. Zinc 50-100 mg daily today [if positive and sick for a few days; standard issue daily lozenge or 1 or 2 pills daily (on the order of 5-10 mg) is perfect during the prophylactic stage]. VIT C 1000 mg daily today. Get POVIDONE/IODINE solution from the pharmacy or make your own nasal spray from Betadine ( recipes all over the web). Spray your nose and gargle twice daily. If you are going to or hosting a party, have every single person hose their nose down with POVIDONE before going in the house. Do it again as they are leaving. DO NOT, I REPEAT, DO NOT use the same nose spray for everyone. Each individual should have their own.

Most importantly, put down the flame throwers and blow torches. I learned a very important lesson during the AIDS crisis. We are all going to have work as a team or this is going to be the end of us all.

God Bless.
 

Danpaco

Speaking from personal experience, be very careful of taking that high a dose of zinc over the long term.
I recently got over a 2.5 months long vertigo/nausea episode brought on by taking 65mg of zinc daily for over 150 days. The recommended daily dose is 11mg for adult males, anything over 40mg per day can lead to zinc poisoning.
My vertigo went away three days after stopping the high dose of zinc and has continued to not be an issue. I’m happily back at work.
Be well all.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Yes

    Mistake on my part from the sleep derived brain. That is the therapeutic dosing when someone is already sick and positive. And only for a few days.

    A standard issue daily lozenge or 1 or 2 pills daily (on the order of 5-10 mg) is perfect during the prophylactic stage.

    Sorry all. Yet another reason why NC commenters are indispensable.

    I really need to be careful about this on this kind of forum. Thank you for pointing this out.

grayslady

Re: antibody shortages, the Chicago Tribune published a long article on this four days ago. From the article:

The federal government is paying for the antibodies and giving them to the states. The Illinois Department of Public Health then distributes them to providers. The antibodies themselves are free to patients, though providers may bill patients or their insurance companies for services associated with providing the infusions.
For the time period stretching from Nov. 29 to Dec. 12, the state allocated 8,638 courses of monoclonal antibodies to more than 100 providers across Illinois, with Innovative receiving nearly 500 for its two locations, one of the largest allotments in the state, according to a recent health department memo to providers. When deciding where to send the antibodies, when there’s a shortage, the state takes into consideration which areas are in greatest need as well as how much a facility has been using…

Gov. J.B. Pritzker said Tuesday that the state is “making sure that monoclonal antibodies are everywhere in the state. And that’s not a small feat. It’s hard to get a hold of them. There’s a bit of a shortage of monoclonal antibodies but we are managing that throughout Illinois.”

Interesting that the high income North Side of Chicago has two outpatient clinics receiving 6% of the State’s total allocation. To be fair, Innovative seems to have enough skilled technicians. My pulmunologist, who works for one of the country’s “top hospitals” told me the other day that in the past year 1500 employees have already quit due to burnout. The tech who performed my DVT ultrasound the other day had been shifted from mammograms since so many doctors are concerned about blood clots from Covid that more ultrasounds are being ordered, and mammograms are apparently on hold.

 
  1. IM Doc

    This has been a different year for mammograms. The COVID vaccines make changes happen on the mammograms that could lead to unnecessary testing. Therefore, many women are messed up on their scheduling and the numbers being done are down.


Kris Alman

Re Southwest executive, he was triple vaxed. Wondering how much earlier his booster was given and whether his tests were antigen tests that can’t pick up omicron.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/southwest-airlines-ceo-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11639768155
He tested negative multiple times before the hearing and tested positive after returning home, said Southwest spokeswoman Brandy King.

She said Mr. Kelly, 66 years old, is fully vaccinated, received a booster earlier this year and is experiencing mild symptoms.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I just heard on the news that Elizabeth Warren now has COVID.

    I must admit the first thing that came to my mind was if she was in the room with the Southwest CEO who was coughing a lot massless and later found to be positive.

     
    1. flora

      Dear IM Doc, (and please forgive this untoward intimate address, as I do not know you but highly regard your comments here), I am reminded that the hospitalliers and hospitals were a Middle Ages invention, born from charity. Prior to that invention the poor and sick were left to fend for themselves as best they could. Judgement of “worthiness for treatment” was replaced by care for all, regardless of social largely agreed upon “worthiness”.

      I say this because, while I’m disappointed in Sen. Warren’s treatment of Bernie, she is no less worthy of treatment than the least among us. She is a human in need of treatment, regardless of whatever her political ideas. my 2 cents.

       
      1. IM Doc

        Oh I agree
        We all need to be treated the same vaxxed or not. I have been yelling for months at students who have a righteous attitude toward the unvaxxed. I meant nothing bad about sen warren. I only wish all the best. My comment was mainly about the flippancy being demonstrated by our elite. There are now photos going around of her maskless in meetings and on her plane. We are all going to have to take this seriously including our elite. It would make my job do much easier of our elite were actually practicing good habits right now.

        I meant nothing bad towards her at all. Sorry it came out that way.

         
        1. flora

          Thank you for your reply. I hope I understood exactly your original meaning as you describe. I’ve never thought otherwise about your comments, and only wanted to add on my 2 cents for whatever they might be worth. Best

           

  1. IM Doc

    First of all – what are we doing allowing a surgery center to be owned by a personal injury attorney?

    That is almost as bad an ethical lapse as Dr. Fauci’s own wife being the head of Ethics at the NIH. Unfortunately, that is true.

    There was a time and day not that long ago when medical ethics meant something. Neither one of the above scenarios would have even gotten close to being implemented.

    The other thing I would say is how frequent it is in my professional life for spine surgeons to be cesspools of unethical behavior. There is all kinds of unethical things going on in medicine these days – but when something is really bad, there is a higher chance it is a spine surgeon.

    This kind of stuff pains me.

IM Doc

In the 1980s when I was a student, in the middle of the worst part of AIDS, I had the privilege of being on a service with an ancient Infectious Disease attending.

He waxed poetic all day, and I learned a tremendous amount.

He spoke a lot about pandemics. He wanted to make sure we all knew that he was certain we would see a pandemic in our lifetimes that was airborne and respiratory. “You cannot run from history”.

And I will never forget what he added at the end – “It will almost assuredly be a coronavirus.”

What am I saying? – So much of this was known by experts for decades. They were often ignored and even laughed out of rooms. Even after SARS 1, coronavirus research was at best on the back bench.

The people doing the laughing are now in charge. That gives me no comfort at all.

 
    1. IM Doc

      Look at the 1890s.

      Also the repeated coronavirus pandemics in veterinary medicine in the 20th century.

      It was just a matter of time.

       

Interestingly coded language in the title of this article (not using the words vaccine, Pfizer, or BioNTech - but it's about those things)

Cumulative Analysis of Post-Authorization Adverse Event Reports of PF-07302048 (BNT162B2) Received Through 28-Feb-2021
 Scribd. IM Doc’s hot take:

I really need to look this over.

This is very early in the vaccine drive ending on 2-28.

Just at a glance there were over 1200 deaths and over 2000 anaphylactic reactions…..

Amazing just how bad they have been lying.

This is devastating and is an indication of how low this could possibly go.

More than 11000 not recovered as of the date 2-28 from whatever se [side effects] they had.

I assure you no IRB [Institutional Review Board] on earth would let this see the light of day with these numbers.

I would need to get the dates, but March 1 was I am certain still in the time frame when minimal vaccines were available and were being rationed by age, etc. This makes that all the more concerning.

Dean

The numbers come from the original clinical trial where 18,801 participants received Pfizer vaccination. If the Pfizer vaccine caused 1200 deaths (Which IM doc stated the data in the article shows) out of the 18,801 that is a rate of over 6% deaths in the vaccinated. As of December 2021 over 100 million Americans have been given 2 doses of Pfizer vaccine. If it killed over 6% that gives over 6 million.

 
  1. IM Doc

    These numbers have nothing to do with the tens of thousands from the original trial cohort – That has nothing to do with this analysis.

    This is a cumulative analysis. These are done all the time in research or experimental drugs. I can assume we now do them on EUAs done on a mass scale as well. As I have stated many times, this is the largest PHASE III Trial ever conducted in human history. And it has been under no supervision of an IRB in any way shape or form as has been done for decades.

    The denominator in this situation would be how many subjects had been vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine up until FEB 28th of this year. It would be in the millions – but NOTE it would not be every vaccinated subject because Moderna and J&J were also being given at the same time. I just do not know the exact number. I have to admit I have not gotten the magnifying glass out on the fine details on this paper – have not had time. Usually this total denominator number is very visible – it may be – I have just not yet found it.

    If I had to guess I would say 10-20 million. And yes, that may seem like a low level of mortality – 1000 out of ten million. It is not. That is actually very high. This level of morbidity and mortality in any other protocol in a drug trial would have caused instant cessation in times past. Had this data been shown to my IRB, I can guarantee you the non-medical individuals on the committee would have settled for nothing less than complete suspension of the trial – only to be resumed once much much more was known.

    We are told in medicine that this has type of oversight has been suspended because of the dire status of the pandemic. I am OK with that as long as everyone has been as transparent as possible just as it was promised. It is crystal clear from this data presentation that transparency has been nowhere on their radar all year long. Those who have pointed out the extreme red flag signals in VAERS for example have been censored and heckled without mercy. But here we are.

    When thinking about transparency, I would also point you to the statement of Dr. Rubin, the editor in chief of the NEJM and one of the vaccine committee members. When asked about side effects of the vaccines in kids his statement was something to the effect that we are just going to have to get it out there and see what happens. He made that statement knowing full well this data in this document. Please do not tell me this data was not fully known by everyone on that committee. It makes one wonder what other data they know about – but has not been revealed. I always will come back to the promises made upon the rollout. Yes – we are doing this in this extraordinary time without all the usual testing – BUT in return we will be completely transparent with what happens and what comes out.

    They think we are all chumps.

     

Re: a post about an in-hospital experience with medical personnel not using PPE appropriately,

IM Doc confirmed that this attitude is not uncommon:

I was taken aside a few weeks ago and told that my PPE was over the top and scaring patients.

I was told I was vaccinated and could not spread the virus and was protected. Just two weeks ago. I told them to go fuck themselves and the side eye continues to this day.

IM Doc

First of all – to everyone here at NC – a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS!

An anecdotal update from my area.

All physicians here have been vaccinated. Many boostered. As of last night, myself and 2 others are the only ones able to physically show up – everyone else is positive, sick and/or in quarantine. The already diminished nursing staff is much the same.

At our facility this AM were 103 names on a list of patients who had become positive over the preceding 24 hours needing an appointment. I have seen many of these patients this AM on the computer. There has not been a single unvaccinated one in the group. At the very least, the vaccinated patients represent the exact percentage of the vaccinated in the population – and even that seems to no longer be the case. Lots of “vaccine required” family gatherings being disrupted and some members placed in quarantine. Legions of very pissed off people.

It is absolutely the case that the symptoms are clearly milder. Thus far, I have had no new admissions in the past few days. However, there are quite a few of these people who although not hospital level are indeed very very ill. And I want to remind everyone, even though this seems not to affect the lungs as drastically, thereby minimizing admissions, we have zero clue if any of the other issues with COVID are diminished as well. WE ALL MUST BE CAREFUL.

This is the new and alarmingly different part:

Unfortunately, there is a growing angst and even anger and at times outright hostility. People who were promised they would not get sick, who were promised they would not have disruptions like this are getting increasingly peaved.

This thing is spreading like wild fire. And very thankfully, we so far seem to be maintaining manageable hospital admissions. You have no idea how thankful I am of that. However, the ER and urgent locations are just overwhelmed – and largely with patients who are not really that sick and yet demanding PCR tests and other things. The tempers are running hot. The waiting rooms are crammed full and just imagine the “fights on the airplanes” videos – and that is what health care has become lately.

I am exhausted, you are exhausted, and God knows the nurses and staff are exhausted. PLEASE DO NOT TAKE THIS OUT ON THE HEALTH CARE STAFF. I am urging angry patients to take a walk outside and return only when they have cooled down. And to place their anger at appropriate channels by calling their congresspeople and insisting on an investigation of our federal agencies.

Take home points – if you are vaccinated or boostered – PLEASE do not assume you are bullet-proof. YOU ARE NOT. Please do not think you are not going to share the wealth with elderly infirm Grandma – you very likely will.

If you have even a hint of a symptom – please stay home. Testing ability is in profoundly short supply. Indeed, in my area – we are running very low and will not make it through the weekend. HAVING NO TESTS DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE NEGATIVE. If you are ill, STAY HOME.

And for God’s sake – show some respect for yourself and your neighbors and your community. Do not cuss out nurses in front of 5 year old kids. The “b” “c” and “f” words have no place in a hospital. I have had to already do my best to console a 30 year old single mom nurse last night after a tongue lashing – the likes of which I have never seen before. “Ma’am I am so sorry you did not plan better – but we have no tests to accomodate your demand for pre-flight testing. I am sorry that is the way it is.” The resulting torrent of 4 letter words would have made George Carlin blush. Do not act like a fool for all to see. Many of us seem to be losing it – becoming unhinged. We are better than this.

I want everyone to remember the Blessed Meaning of this Day.

May God Bless Us – Every One.

 

Administration’s Obvious Covid Flail: Officially Abdicates as Case Count Hits Record; Scientists and Press Misrepresent Data to Put Happy Face on Omicron

Forgive me for doing a cursory job on such an important and sorry set of Covid developments. But I had really intended this to be a holiday week and instead I’m up to my eyeballs in family duties. But the raw facts are so bad that to a fair degree, they speak for themselves.

It’s become painfully evident that the “follow the science” and Biden Administration campaign promise to act as the adults in the room are a sick joke. Policy all politics. Public health long ago left the barn and is now in the next county. Biden threw in the towel on Monday after having promised on the campaign trail to shut down the virus:

 

While constitutionally, public health is indeed a state and local responsibility, the Feds have the say over interstate commerce, and they also have many other powerful levers they can pull though their bully pulpit, data collection and dissemination, and their ability to fund nationwide programs. We’ve instead had inconsistent, often inaccurate, and actively damaging messaging (“if you are vaccinated, you are protected”; “the vaccinated can stop masking”) but also making things worse by not understanding how poor the CDC’s data is (something the agency has abjectly failed to address) made worse by officials apparently believing their own spin.

The latest is the CDC making horrendous decisions based on its own crap information. The agency admitted that its December 18 estimate, that Omicron represented 73% of all cases, was too high and the point estimate should have been 22.5%.

This CDC bad call, just like its 2020 fail on test kits, has real world implications. IM Doc had been complaining that his hospital could no longer get Regeneron when his patients were clamoring for it. He learned from his mafia that the CDC had believed its 73% Omicron estimate and based on monoclonal antibodies not being effective against Omicron, it wasn’t cost justified. IM Doc is sure some of his patients have Delta and he now can’t treat them properly.

Yet alarmingly, we are also seeing Saint Fauci and Rochelle Walenksy, despite their repeated abject failures, act as they are in running Covid policy, in defiance of Biden and the states. Fauci tried to assert authority over the airline industry during his Sunday talk show rounds by pumping for a vaccine mandate for domestic air travel. This was extremely presumptuous in light of:

The industry lobbying Congress during formal testimony for an end to masking, based on the claim that planes have super duper filtered air (yes, but what about the guy near you coughing or talking and his Covid cooties getting to you before a filter?)

Delta [the airline] petitioning for reducing vaccine quarantines to five days for the fully vaccinated…despite evidence that for Delta [the variant], and even more so for Omicron, the vaccines do little if anything to reduce spread

Many employers retreating from the >100 employee Federal vaccine mandate while it is in legal play, demonstrating they are not on board

The real possibility that the Supreme Court will overturn or restrict the employer mandate, and that could have implications for other Federal vaccine schemes

On Monday, the Administration capitulated to Delta’s request and reduced the recommended quarantine to five days, and Fauci reversed himself on a vaccine mandate for flights.

Even former Administration backers were gobsmacked. From the Financial Times:

Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, said: “It seems pretty chaotic. You have an announcement yesterday on isolation guidance with no data, no evidence, nothing. And this is from an administration that says it wants to stick to the science.

“Then today, we have the drastic changes to their genomic estimates. The last 24 hours show that the credibility of the agency is lower than it has been at any point during this administration.”

Topol has even more unkind words in The very bad day at the CDC, which I strongly urge you to read in full. He makes clearer than the press does the degree of the CDC’s data failure.

Scientist GM’s take on the quarantine reduction:

So now if you work in, for example, retail or fast food, your boss can force you to come back to work on Day 6, where you will proceed to infect all customers you interact with.

Also, people will die on the job because of this. How is that going to play out in practice?

You test positive, then you go through the flu-like phase of COVID. A lot of people will not at all be in any shape to come back to work on day 6, many are still really sick at that time.

But bigger problem comes later — you have come back to work, you start your shift, then the day-10 rapid deterioration kicks in, at which point you need to be in the hospital ASAP. But you just started your shift and will be fired if you leave so you try to carry on.

One hypothesis about why we no longer see people randomly dropping on the street as was the case early on on in China, Iran, Italy, etc. is that everyone is aware of COVID now and has tested positive before it gets to that point and is thus either in hospital or isolating at tome. While those people randomly dropping dead were the rapid deterioration or heart attack/stroke cases that thought they had the flu at the time nobody was aware of COVID and were thus were freely walking around.

We are about to test that hypothesis now…

P.S. This is straight up premeditated mass murder at this point

He added:

It includes HCWs [health care workers], but this is definitely not about them.

They could have been handled with a specific provision.

And that provision could have been temporary.

And it could have been to the effect of “if you test positive, you are assigned to the COVID ward, but you must absolutely not step foot in the oncology department next to the chemo patients”.

This is nothing of the sort — this is a permanent irreversible policy shift for everyone.

So from now on wherever you go to buy anything you have to be aware that the people working there might be on their Day 6…

IM Doc confirmed the management response:

The ERs and urgent cares in the affected areas are being cremated as we speak. The hospital units not so much – at least yet. You should hear some of the horror stories I am hearing from colleagues.

It has indeed now risen to the level of a public health menace.

After years of nurse mis-treatment, on top of COVID burnout, firing tons of staff over vaccine mandates – and now seeing whole units being quarantined – they see the writing on the wall.

The only one of those issues that is readily fixable is changing the quarantine time. Calling in the National Guard is simply not going to do much at all – as they are finding out the hard way right now.

So much for the whole argument that the vaccine people have had – I DO NOT WANT TO GET CARE FROM AN UNVACCINATED HCW – Well now you are going to get care from a HCW who may very well still be contagious.

This is a clusterfuck of obscene proportions. I can scarcely believe what I am seeing.

And if we are to hold Biden to his word – why would anyone listen to the CDC anymore – this is not a federal problem as of his speech today. Why is the CDC even making proclamations like this.

And he confirmed shortly that his hospital’s personnel department had sent out a “celebratory e-mail,” for those coming off the new shortened quarantine to contact their supervisor pronto since there were many open shifts.

Other news tidbits are similarly damming if you have a modicum of the backstory. The Financial Times tells us Biden’s promised 500 million home test kits are yet to materialize:

Last week, the US president announced that the federal government would respond by distributing 500m at-home tests. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Biden said his administration had “a bit of progress” on distributing the test kits.

In fact, the normally Democrat-friendly Vanity Fair broke the story that the Administration had nixed an October proposal of a mass home test program by Christmas. On top of that, Biden hadn’t even signed a contract when he announced his scheme; a Johns Hopkins expert said it would likely be a year before the kits were distributed.

Walensky, like Fauci, is also operating well beyond her authority. She not only fell in line with Fauci on giving in to the airlines on the length of recommended quarantines, but she also appointed herself as arbiter of broad social policies:

 

Neither Fauci nor Walensky were subject to any democratic approval process. Decisions about non-health impacts are none of her business and should be left to those who are supposed to be in charge. Unfortunately, there appears to be a gaping power vacuum and she’s all too willing to seize ground.

A final issue, which will get only brief treatment, is putative experts and the press are pushing every bit of Omicron hopium they can find, to the degree that they are baldly misrepresenting research….which even if the spin were accurate, should be treated with caution. We still don’t know enough about Omicron to be certain of much save its very high level of transmission and resistance to vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. As Lambert put it:

If you believe in the precautionary principle, then you don’t amplify “emerging data” where the policy implication is to do nothing.

One reader with a medical background sent a link to the hopium in question, a very small South African study where the title of the preprint, Omicron infection enhances neutralizing immunity against the Delta, flat out misrepresents what the data actually says. As GM said:

The PR spin is profoundly misleading and the opposite of what the data says, but unfortunately in this case the scientists themselves are to blame as they are pushing that narrative too.

The data shows little actual cross immunity.

I would not be surprised if Omicron burns through the whole world and then in mid-2022 it all starts again in some part of the world with a new strain….

Here is the first Delta/Omicron cross-neutralization data:

https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-268439v1-Sigal.pdf

There is some cross-neutralization, but if you look at the unvaccinated subjects, half of them were below the limit of detection at the follow up. Which was two weeks after the initial presentation.

So they were infected with Omicron but are not showing appreciable neutralization against Delta.

Overall, including the vaccinated, titers went up 14.4x against Omicron, but 4.4x against Delta.

Which is touted as great protection against Delta, but it really is not, as titers are going down from there.

This might be enough to push Delta down in the short term, though it will not be a fast displacement into oblivion.

But it will do nothing against future variants a year from now.

And yet what does the abstract of the paper say?

The increase in Delta variant neutralization in individuals 39 infected with Omicron may result in decreased ability of Delta to re-infect those individuals. Along with emerging data indicating that Omicron, at this time in the pandemic, is less pathogenic than Delta, such an outcome may have positive implications in terms of decreasing the Covid-19 burden 42 of severe disease

Which fits well with a very disturbing trend over the last few weeks — most of the top scientists in South Africa have come out in support of the governmental policy of abdicating completely from infection control and have given statements in the spirit of “Omicron is mild and will end the pandemic”.

I have no information of why that is being done, but the suspicions are obvious and natural — this has all the hallmarks of political pressure from on top.

Because those people do/should know better scientifically.

And even if the “mild” narrative were true (the UK’s Imperial College is not on board, and the UK, between having an actual national public health service plus regular surveys of 100,000 people, has some of the best Covid data in the world), that is not necessarily good news. It appears if anything that more are getting symptomatic Omicron than Delta. In particular, note the relatively high level of symptomatic Omicron in children and young adults who have robust immune systems and showed a much lower level of symptomatic cases under Delta…and this with much more of the population, even young adults and teens, vaccinated than before.

The reason for concern is that a new, reasonable size study (n>500) found that 67% of those who had mild to moderate Covid developed long Covid. There’s no reason to think Omicron will be more forgiving.

Yet the CDC keeps digging its hole even deeper:

 

The Administration can barely keep up its pretense of being in the business of protecting the public. Every man is now on his own, at least in the US.

IM Doc

I work in a highly vaxxed county – greater than 80% among adults – in the USA

Our big winter surge started here about 2 weeks ago – and has dramatically escalated in the past few days.

So we are just now starting the hospital aspect of this issue.

Our stats from December 1st to now – is about 60% vaccinated – 40% unvaccinated in the hospital. I do not know the exact booster numbers for the vaccinated – but let’ just say several.

Even though the numbers have clearly gotten worse for the vaccinated – the 90/10 ratio was commonplace until about a month and a half ago – it is still the case the the unvaccinated account for almost all of the ICU patients.

Of note, our overall hospitalization rates per capita have been much lower than average throughout this whole affair.

It must also be said I am in a rural area – with many other factors – people here are much more healthy, they are not crammed together like sardines, and there is much much more community mitigation efforts than I am seeing displayed from our big cities. There is a community wide effort to educate people about low pulse ox – and not to sit at home and get sicker by the day. Family members and friends abound for almost everyone – to keep an eye and ear out for those who are ill. The outpatient doctors here also have much more aggressiveness in caring for patients and keeping them out of the hospital than is going on in the big cities where corporate medicine rules.

End of 2021


temporaryreality: (Default)
 First half of December 2021. IM Doc wasn't active on NC for nearly the first two weeks. When he popped up again, it was in a quote on the main post of the day, 12/11/21. This is also relatively short.

From IM Doc, keep in mind only a small sample…and remember his county has a very high vax rate:

27 [new] COVID cases – on top of the 21 that we had yesterday –

48 total…42 vaccinated – and of those 11 are boostered. 6 unvaccinated….

As far as mildness – 7 of these patients met the criteria for monoclonal antibodies because of the severity of their symptoms….

I am holding my breath about mildness. This will be the third big wave that we have had – OCT of last year – JUN-OCT of this year, and now. All 3 started with these large numbers of younger healthier people often in family clusters, etc. and took weeks to get going and really settle in. The hospitalizations and critical illness lagged behind the initial surge by weeks. This seems to be exactly the same pattern right now. These patients have all been large groups of family clusters. Many have been jetting around the world on holiday. The BIG difference now – many many more vaccinated are getting sick. Again – THIS IS NOT MILD. These people are getting severe flu like illness – just at this point only one has been admitted out of this group – so we are not admitting a lot.

Jason Boxman

The governors of Maine and New York deployed the National Guard in response to dangerously low capacity at statewide medical facilities due to the pandemic.

And because hospitals run to maximize profit don’t like spare capacity?

 
  1. GF

    Don’t these National Guard nurses, doctors etc have day jobs as nurses, doctors etc? Are they being pulled from their current medical oriented job when called up? Who takes over their day jobs while they are away?

     
    1. IM Doc

      Sssshhh –

      Don’t tell anyone – that is a secret – that no one is supposed to be allowed to ruminate over.

      But in all seriousness – the National Guard in my state has had a presence in the hospitals for a few months now. I am not sure we would be able to survive without them – the depletion of regular employees has become so devastating.

      An actual MD or DO is fairly unusual in their ranks. That is even true of RNs. The few of them that have medical training are basically field medics. That kind of experience is something we can dearly use in the hospitals right now. However, for the most part, the National Guard here are being used for all the other positions – orderlies, front desk people, patient transporters, meal delivery, etc. The ranks of those regular employees in the hospitals have been absolutely torpedoed and these troops have been a welcome relief. However, this is in no way a permanent fix. Most of these Guardsmen have only basic rudimentary medical training. They are very eager to learn and I have been doing all I can to help in that regard. And I am in no way criticizing them. They have saved us and our communities.

      But it is essential for our political leaders to understand – it takes at least 10 years to train an MD. It takes at least 4-6 years to train an RN. Even the more mundane jobs that the CNAs and orderlies and clerks do in the hospital are just simply not intuitively obvious. It takes training and patience to do even the most simple task – for example walking a demented little old lady down the hall.

      You cannot invent these folks out of thin air. When these employees have resigned in the past 6 months or so – literally decades of experience walked out the doors with them. And FIRING them is the absolute peak of imbecility. One of the hospitals I know well fired over 200 people in the past 2 months. I will simply say that the VP of risk management, who I know well, in that organization called me this week and will be submitting their resignation this coming week. They can no longer handle the stress. They are averaging many multiples a week above average of potential lawsuits because the care has gotten so tenuous.

      The thought that you can just stick used car dealers and accountants that are weekend warriors into these roles and have it be “OK” is simply ludicrous.

      I have no idea what is going to be the next phase of the plan once the pandemic is calming down. The hospitals and nursing homes are still going to be cratered.

      This is not just COVID. For decades, it was obvious that there were not near enough doctors and nurses being trained. And to make things worse – there was an extreme imbalance in the specialties chosen by the grads. The economic pressure of medical school has caused most med graduates to gravitate to things like DERM and ORTHO which we do not need and the primary care fields are just withering. Over the past 10-20 years, we have been stealing docs and nurses from other countries to do our primary care. But no one ever thought to ask what would happen if the ready supply of foreign help was no longer available. Now the big push is to have nurse practitioners fill in these roles – but LOL funny is the fact that the NPs are avoiding primary care like the plague as well.

      Just to understand the scope of the problem – our hospital has had 11 positions advertised in the local paper for the past 3 months. They had ONE application for ONE position this past week.

      We have a big problem. We will see what happens.

       

Here's a whole relevant NC post

Omicron Cases Serious in Denmark and Overall Morbidity Picture Not Pretty Either

The US press and some wannabe pundits are keeping up the happy talk on Omicron as more and more contradictory evidence is coming in on case severity. Remember as we stressed the baselines are questionable since outside the UK’s REACT surveys, no one has a very good handle on the total level of Covid cases, since asymptomatic cases are seldom caught. And it’s not as if asymptomatic cases are harmless. One large-scale study, through February 2021, estimated that 20% of asymptomatic Covid cases result in long Covid. And that’s pre the more aggressively-replicating Delta became dominant.

There was reason to regard the cheery take that Omicron cases weren’t showing up as severe as premature. Let’s start with how long the lag between disease appearance and first deaths was at the get go:

 

77% of Denmark’s population is fully vaccinated and 22% boosted.

With the rise of Omicron, we have also seen something of a revival of the meme that Covid is no worse than the flu in our comments section. I suspect that’s being touted around the Web as part of an informal campaign to preserve holiday spending festivities. So we again need to remind readers that the downside of Covid doesn’t come only from dying or being hospitalized. Unlike the flu, it can and often does wreck all sorts of havoc on a disconcertingly wide range of functions.

At least long Covid is getting more attention, but like chronic fatigue syndrome and advanced Lyme disease, those who don’t have it likely find it hard to relate to how debilitating it is. Due to the very wide range of symptoms, it’s proven difficult to nail down. And a second issue that affects Covid research generally is the time needed to organize and execute a study, vet the data, write a paper and have it accepted for publication. It’s easily a year lag, which means that the vetted studies are nearly all pre-Delta, for instance.

Nevertheless, a study from February 2020 to February 2021 estimated that 20% of asymptomatic cases resulted in long Covid. A metastudy by the Pennsylvania College of Medicine concluded that half of those who contracted Covid had gotten long Covid. From their writeup:

More than half of the 236 million people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide since December 2019 will experience post-COVID symptoms — more commonly known as “long COVID” — up to six months after recovering….

….survivors experienced an array of residual health issues associated with COVID-19. Generally, these complications affected a patient’s general well-being, their mobility or organ systems. Overall, one in two survivors experienced long-term COVID manifestations. The rates remained largely constant from one month through six or more months after their initial illness.

The investigators noted several trends among survivors, such as:

  • General well-being: More than half of all patients reported weight loss, fatigue, fever or pain.

  • Mobility: Roughly one in five survivors experienced a decrease in mobility.

  • Neurologic concerns:Nearly one in four survivors experienced difficulty concentrating.

  • Mental health disorders:Nearly one in three patients were diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorders.

  • Lung abnormalities:Six in ten survivors had chest imaging abnormality and more than a quarter of patients had difficulty breathing.

  • Cardiovascular issues:Chest pain and palpitations were among the commonly reported conditions.

  • Skin conditions: Nearly one in five patients experienced hair loss or rashes.

  • Digestive issues:Stomach pain, lack of appetite, diarrhea and vomiting were among the commonly reported conditions.

The research on whether vaccines prevent long Covid is mixed. From a late November article in Nature:

Vaccines reduce the risk of long COVID by lowering the chances of contracting COVID-19 in the first place. But for those who do experience a breakthrough infection, studies suggest that vaccination might only halve the risk of long COVID — or have no effect on it at all…

At present, public-health officials are flying blind when it comes to long COVID and vaccination. Although vaccines greatly reduce the rates of serious illness and death caused by COVID-19, they are not as effective at completely preventing the disease, and long COVID can arise even after a mild or asymptomatic coronavirus infection. Countries with high infection rates could still end up with many cases of long COVID, even if nations have high rates of vaccination.

IM Doc is reporting even more collateral damage. From a recent e-mail:

Other than the immediate post-SARS issues related to the lungs – which if the patient survives seems to be improving in most people, the vascular issues (MIs, DVTs, PEs, CVAs many weeks and months later) and the brain issues are by far and away the most important. Brain fog, depression, memory loss are the most common with brain function. I am now also seeing highly advanced intellectual people being forced to quit their jobs. They no longer have the attention span nor the ability to do their work. In the past month, a nuclear physicist and a climatologist, both in their late 50s, have both told me they can no longer evaluate datasets and do calculations correctly, and will be retiring in the near future.

Another concerning thing I am beginning to hear from my oncology friends is the absolute explosion of soft tissue cancers that are happening. This is especially true of malignant melanoma and renal cell carcinoma. One of my oncology colleagues noted to me the other day that he found it very troubling that these two in particular were going parabolic – the two soft tissue cancers whose etiology most have to do with a disordered immune system. Lymph tumors like lymphoma and myeloma are also apparently going off the charts as well.

The media seems to be content informing everyone this is happening because of a delay in diagnosis [due to lockdowns]. I could see validity in that a year ago. Now, that supposition is just sheer lunacy. My own office is crawling with in-person visits. The tele-visits for the most part are over and really only used for acute COVID and lab results and long distance patients.

GM added:

This was predicted already last year when it became clear what the virus does to T cells.

You go through a large T-cell exhaustion and derangement event and then you have fewer of them to monitor your own cells for malignancies. Thus one of the key mechanisms through which the body cleanses itself of tumors is diminished. An aged immune system is not so good with dealing with them, which is one reason (along with the sheer accumulation of mutations over time) why old people get cancer so much more frequently.

Well, the virus directly causes derangement of cellular immunity so logically it should also cause an explosion in cancers. If what your are seeing is confirmed as a trend, and if it’s these two types specifically that are exploding that is quite solid supporting evidence, then that hypothesis will turn out to be have been correct.

So don’t kid yourself. Mask up. Ventilate. Be very discriminating as to who you see over the holidays, and use every excuse to have it be outdoors if the weather is at all accommodating. Better to be a Scrooge this year and have more happy and healthy Christmases down the road.

Hank George

“Another concerning thing I am beginning to hear from my oncology friends is the absolute explosion of soft tissue cancers that are happening. This is especially true of malignant melanoma and renal cell carcinoma. One of my oncology colleagues noted to me the other day that he found it very troubling that these two in particular were going parabolic – the two soft tissue cancers whose etiology most have to do with a disordered immune system. Lymph tumors like lymphoma and myeloma are also apparently going off the charts as well.”

I am very suspicious of this statement. It strongly suggests it wasn’t written by a physician or for that matter anyone with even a nodding acquaintance with oncology.

Melanoma and kidney cancer are never referred to as “soft tissue cancers.” Neither are lymphomas or multiple myeloma.

Soft tissue malignancies are mainly sarcomas and primary bone/cartilage cancers. They have far lower incidence rates than the cancers mislabeled here as being of “soft tissue” origin

I spent 50 years as one of the country’s leading life insurance medical underwriters and I guarantee you no experienced underwriter with a degree in basket weaving would make such a dopey mistake as mislabeling melanoma, kidney cancer, lymphoma and multiple myeloma as soft-tissue malignancies.

The stench here is quite disconcerting, doubly so considering the importance of hyping up the latest COVID-19 variant like chicken little running around the barnyard trying to rake in billions more vaccine revenue!

 
  1. Yves Smith

    IM Doc has taught for years at a med school which has top tier national standing in his speciality, internal medicine, and been on an Institutional Review Board for over a decade, including as its chairman, for clinical trials. You are out of line in challenging him and even worse in accusing him of not being a doctor and us of not having vetted him.

    I hoisted his comment from e-mail, which on the one hand he knows is fair game within our Covid Brain Trust unless they’ve asked that it be treated as confidential, but on the other hand he did not write with publication in mind. His response:

    This is a classification scheme that has been ongoing change for years –

    When I was young – these were both referred to as soft tissue cancers – however, now they are referred to as solid tissue cancers.

    THat is my fault – and I should always endeavor to be much more accurate in my writing –

    The fact is that medical people would look at that statement and know exactly what I was talking about.

    Currently – SOFT TISSUE cancers – are muscle, ligaments, bone, and SKIN

    SOLID TISSUE cancers are all the organs – so technically today a RENAL CELL CARCINOMA would be considered a SOLID TISSUE cancer –

    FLUID and LYMPH CANCERS are leukemia’s and lympomas.

    When I was young the SOFT and SOLID were all lumped together in SOFT –

    I am sorry – this person is a severe nit picker. We older physicians make “mistakes” like this all the time – and everyone knows exactly what we mean. Someone who is trying to discredit a statement with an overdone argument has no such grace.

temporaryreality: (Default)
 Last half of November 2021 - a shorter post this time.

Jason Boxman

Expertise is also hemorrhaging. Many older nurses and doctors have retired early—people who “know that one thing that happened 10 years ago that saved someone’s life in a clutch situation,” Cassie Alexander said. And because of their missing experience, “things are being missed,” Artec Durham added. “The care feels frantic and sloppy even though we’re not overrun with COVID right now.” Future patients may also suffer because the next generation of health-care workers won’t inherit the knowledge and wisdom of their predecessors. “I foresee at least three or four years post-COVID where health-care outcomes are dismal,” Cassandra Werry told me. That problem might be especially stark for rural hospitals, which are struggling more with staff shortages and unvaccinated populations.

About a year ago, an article in the NY Times or where ever discussed this at some length, and I’d been thinking about it for months before; The Establishment is destroying an entire generation of doctors, nurses, CRNAs, techs, and support staff. And that’s not going to end well, and it’s going to particularly hollow out care facilities in parts of the country that liberal Democrats loathe, but also everywhere else.

Definitely stay healthy for out there for as long as you can!

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/the-mass-exodus-of-americas-health-care-workers/620713/

 

  1. IM Doc

    I would like to make sure everyone understands the magnitude of this problem.

    In July or August – do not remember for sure – my local hospital had a media release that only 8% of their staff was unvaccinated.

    Since that time, I have had a literal flood of nurses, RTs, CNAs, and front office staff in my office as patients. Crying, upset, despondent, depressed and suicidal. The problem here has nothing to do with the mandates. This is a moral and spiritual crisis in medicine. It is no longer doable for many people. These people are giving up their careers – they just do not see a viable way forward for themselves and their mental health.

    If you recall, Biden announced the mandates in early September. And this was right around the time that so many of these people started resigning en masse. The hospital could not hire enough replacements with a vaccine mandate so in order to save the hospital, did not require that. A recent article to the public last week announced that currently there are 21% of our employees unvaccinated. So we have gone from 8% about 3 months ago during a mass exodus to 21% now.

    If the hospital even begins to think about enforcing the vaccine mandate, the doors will have to be closed. There just simply are not enough staff. The nursing home is already having to discharge patients because they have no staff.

    Things are very dire indeed. The remaining staff are overwhelmed and becoming very emotional. I have never seen anything like this.

    This is going on all over the fruited plain. All over rural America – and indeed in many large hospitals in the big cities.

    Americans simply do not realize how dire this all is. I fear for the entire system if we have another big wave. And if Biden really clamps down, the rural hospitals for sure are going to be toast.

    I simply cannot understand the whole plan. There is something else going on. It just has to be.

Regarding this:
“Jill Biden: What to do if you want to protect your kids” [CNN]. “Parents, we do absolutely everything to protect our kids, and in this pandemic, you did. You figured out how to support their virtual learning while working your job. Some of you even left your job to help your kids. You found ways to create online playdates and birthday parties. You chose to get yourself vaccinated.” Lol, remember when “essential workers” were important? They could not work from home, unlike those who have “email jobs,” and so naturally Dr. Biden erases them. More: “From the day you held your sweet, fragile, little baby for the first time, you have made the choice, again and again, to keep your child safe. Getting your kids the Covid-19 vaccine is your choice, too. Make the decision to protect your children with the same vaccine that has already saved millions of lives.” • It’s appalling. Dr. Biden recommends only vax. Dr. Biden does not discuss ventilation, or (for some ages) masking, or the nasal and oral prophylatics (e.g., Povidone) we have often discussed here. She does not use her national forum to discuss the “Swiss cheese,” layered strategy at all. Dr. Biden emits soothing pablum. Soothing lethal pablum. One might almost think that the Bidens, as a couple, oppose aerosol transmission entirely (q.v. President Biden’s visit to an apparently windowless schoolroom using plexiglass barriers. Shocking and appalling.

IM Doc

About the above linked article about Dr. Biden’s comments on CNN —

Parents, we do absolutely everything to protect our kids, and in this pandemic, you did. You figured out how to support their virtual learning while working your job. Some of you even left your job to help your kids.

I have been preaching to my students, residents, and patients for decades that the vast majority of disease I see in my office is a direct reflection of people’s reaction to “the American way of life.” That way of life has now produced over the 30 years of my career a huge increase in obesity, in diabetes, in mental anguish and stress, in kids on all kinds of meds, an explosion of diabetes in kids, and a level of depression and anxiety in my patients that was simply inconceivable when I started 30 years ago.

To put it simply, people are allergic to being American. It really is that simple.

What these elites have yet to figure out – as I have heard nothing about this really discussed in the press – is what the last 2 years has wrought.

You see, when you give people the ability to do their work and life without the soul-draining hour long commutes, the mindless work days, leisure time every day instead of driving, and the incredibly decreased expenses without a commute – you gave them a chance of having a much better life. Leaving many parents much more time to be with their kids. My little rural community has now been deluged with millenial families uprooted from California and NY and SF and Chicago moving here with abandon. The empty U-Hauls are everywhere.

In my experience as a physician and talking to hundreds of the new-found free, this has led to 2 big insights.

1) Parents realized how absolutely craptastic was the kids’ experience in school and how atrocious many of the teachers are.

2) Far more importantly, many families, especially the younger ones, are purposely having one of the parents stay home now – working or not. Many of them have quit working altogether. That is where a lot of our workers have disappeared to.

Most of the stay-home parents have been the moms, but I have been taken aback by how many dads are staying home while mom works. Many of them here in my community and in my realm have realized how much of their lives and money were being spent on their previous life and have decided that spending that on their kids is the much better option.

I could not be more thrilled. I have thought for a long time that we need to completely re-think our entire way of life. It may disrupt some of the sacred cows – for example – tenets of feminism and 2-career families. But so be it. I think we will all be much more healthy in the long run.

As this continues to emerge, the changes may be very disruptive as we are experiencing now – but what was not disruptive about the previous way we were doing things?

Dr. Biden and other elites like her spout off these kinds of platitudes all the time. She is really onto something here – I just do not think it is what she thinks it is.

The times – they are a’changin’.


Questa Nota

Yves and Lambert,
Given the extensive treatment on NC about Covid and related topics, you may be interested in reading Scott Alexander’s substack post about Ivermectin studies.

 
  1. YankeeFrank

    Yep. The other day I linked to John Campbell’s video about how effective, in multiple ways, ivermectin is at beating covid. Far better than the new pfizer and merck meds. Sad. Actually an effing travesty of public health corruption. Neoliberalism is death and profit.

     
  2. IM Doc

    I want to thank you for putting this link here. I have been directed to this article earlier today and have already read through it.

    A very comprehensive discussion of the major trials on Ivermectin and their strengths and weaknesses. I found this very fair and very much in the tradition of vigorous medical debate.

    I also greatly appreciated the writer’s take on the politics issue.

    I will still tell everyone to this day, in my practice we are using ivermectin. In the very early stages of the disease, rapid deployment of the drug does seem to make a difference in keeping patients out of the hospital. My own data and my own eyeballs have come to that conclusion after treating multiple dozens of patients. It is a safe drug – one of the safest there is. And based on long-standing medical ethics principles, given its safety record and its seeming ability to keep people out of the hospital – even now it is unethical to withhold it.

    I am looking forward to trials – fairly done – to see if indeed this holds up. Obviously – if more refined data start to come in, I will reconsider using it. This is called science. I do not need Rachel Maddow and horse deworming screeds to tell me what the principles of science and medicine are.

    I have 1 major quibble with the line of thinking of this writer. And that is the toxicity of the vaccines. VAERS, as unreliable as it seems, is screaming at us that this is likely the most toxic vaccine ever introduced. I have certainly seen more problems in my own patients, including 1 death, than I have ever had in any other vaccine. “The completely safe and effective” line is not really holding up as we go on. And it is certainly not a few myocarditis cases here and there as this writer suggests.

    Accordingly, it is very very difficult as a rational thinking physician how to exactly address risk benefit ratios when talking with patients about these vaccines. Especially when many of them in increasing numbers seem to have stories of family and friends affected with side effects. As I have repeatedly stated, my job is to convince people to do the right thing – NOT COERCING them. And this spectre of side effects looms large – not the least of which reason is the authorities seem intent on completely ignoring the problem. A foolish thing to do – that behavior leads to more angst an distrust.

    So, I have been doing all I can to get those in whom the risks are obvious – older age, co-morbid problems, to take the vaccine. Many of these people also would like ivermectin prophylaxis – and it is not going to hurt them so we do it. I try to engage everyone at their level.

    But so much of the political distrust and backlash in this whole COVID experience is the reflection of our public health officials ignoring people’s concerns – and God forbid literally making fun of them – don’t take horse pills y’all – and shit like that.

    Interestingly – it is not mainly the MAGA people in my practice demanding ivermectin – it is the more well-to-do PMC types. And they demand it vociferously.

    And as I have repeatedly stated – once the vaccinated have a breakthrough case – and are indeed really ill – further vaccination is not an option. The Joe Rogan and Aaron Rodgers models of throwing everything at it acutely – Ivermectin, monoclonal antibodies , everything at it – and that seems to be working magnificently as well.

    I think my profession has forgotten the entire history of medical therapeutics. When you engage patients at their level, and do not deride them – and work and cooperate with one another – things often work so much better – a calm cool mind in a patient often leads to a calm cool medical course.

    We now have physicians dictating all terms – NO IVERMECTIN FOR YOU – you moron – not seeing unvaccinated patients, writing all kinds of nasty grams about the unvaccinated on their facebook and all kinds of other behaviors.

    When I was in medical school – the first day of medical ethics was the tenet that PATERNALISM as a provider is not ever going to work. You must recognize the patient’s autonomy – and you must work together. I have endeavored my whole life to do that.

    We have flushed all of that down the toilet as a profession the past 2 years. It will not be forgotten. It is time the whole medical realm has a refresher in medical ethics.

     
    1. Alex

      What is your opinion about Scott Alexander’s hypothesis that the effect of ivermectin is due to its deworming properties rather than treating covid per se (the Synthesis section of the linked article)?

       
      1. IM Doc

        I can only speak anecdotally –
        None of my patient have worms – and it seems to help them not to be in the hospital.
        There are all kinds of confounding issues in all kinds of drug trials – not sure fishing around like this is appropriate.

  1. IM Doc

    I could scarcely believe my eyes when I saw that this AM.
    After all the claims of total transparency about the COVID vaccines.
    I must say it is completely unsurprising behavior on the part of Pfizer – probably one of the most compromised Pharma companies there is. The very fact they were involved is what caused an enormous amount of my initial skepticism. Never underestimate how low that company can stoop.

  1. zagonostra

    There was a time when people knew who Ivan Illich was, in fact he was something of a celebrity. But like Marshall McLuhan once he died, he seems to have been forgotten.

    Ivan’s book Medical Nemesis published in 1975, foresaw the decline of the Medical profession due to the same phenomenon of institutionalization that he defined in De-schooling Society.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Illich

     
    1. IM Doc

      Illich was required reading for every student of mine for 30 years. His Medical Nemesis has proven to be one of the more prescient books on the course of medicine as a profession over the course of my life.

      I would recommend it to all.
       

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Anecdote on that addictiveness from before opioids became a national crisis. Many years ago my wife’s doctor sent her to the ER for something fairly minor. She tells the doctor that pain is a 2 on a 1-10 scale. Someone comes back with a bottle of Oxycodone – it was a long time ago so I don’t remember the position of the person who brought the meds, but if they weren’t a nurse they were still a hospital employee at the very least. I said “Isn’t that very addictive and does my wife really need this when her pain isn’t all that bad?” She said “You must be thinking of Oxycontin, and this is Oxycodone, so it’s not addictive”. I was pretty sure they were both highly addictive, but didn’t want to start a fight in the ER so we went home with the pills. I looked it up, found out I was 100% correct and we tossed the pills without taking any. Someone still got paid for dishing out the bogus prescription though. Ka-ching!!! This presumably went on at hospitals all across the country for years before it ever made it into the public eye.

         
        1. Lambert Strether

          > She said “You must be thinking of Oxycontin, and this is Oxycodone, so it’s not addictive”

          From Drugs.com:

          Oxycodone and Oxycontin are essentially the same substance, but the main difference is that Oxycontin is a long-acting form of oxycodone. Oxycontin releases oxycodone slowly and continuously over 12 hours and only needs to be given twice a day. Oxycodone is short-acting and relieves pain for about 4 to 6 hours so needs to be given four to six times a day to provide all-day pain relief….

          Oxycontin may also be called a controlled-release or extended-release tablet. It has been designed so that the active drug, oxycodone, is released in two phases. The first layer allows for the initial rapid release of oxycodone from the surface of the tablet, providing pain relief within about 20 minutes. The inner layer slowly releases the remainder of the oxycodone over 12 hours.

          The decision to prescribe oxycodone and Oxycontin should not be taken lightly because these medications have been associated with long-term physical and psychological dependence, even when prescribed for conditions as innocuous as dental pain.

          Yikes. I wonder where the nurse got that idea. A pharma salesman?

           
      2. IM Doc

        I was there on the ground through the whole thing.

        It was willful blindness on the part of my profession. Not unlike today, it was shocking how the vast majority just rolled over.

        They started by telling us we were mean for not giving pain meds, even going so far as making pain a 5th vital sign and making sure many patients were already addicted before DC from the hospital.

        It took 20 years- but it finally detonated. And in its wake were the livelihoods of several US states and entire regions and many many graves.

        How the vaccines play out will be another 20 years – we will see how things look at that time.

        Very shameful that we just keep allowing this to happen.

       

IM Doc

One week from today is Thanksgiving Day.

I would like to share with everyone something that has been happening with increasing regularity in my office this past few weeks.

People are making active plans to exclude any and all unvaccinated from their family celebrations. Do not get me wrong – I believe any rational human being – given what we know – should seriously consider not having holidays this year. Especially if elderly or sick are involved. I think every family should be having this discussion. It is perfectly rational at this point.

However, that is not what I am seeing most of the time. What I am seeing is a very very malignant process. I am seeing many people announce to me with glee that so and so unvaccinated will not be invited. Often secretly telling me how they have known that so and so and their family were always obviously rubes ( or insert expletive of choice). “I am looking forward to a holiday without them there” “They do not deserve to be there.”

I have become literally heart-sick in the past few weeks listening to this. To the point I had to seek counsel from my clergy last night. I am slowly beginning to become very unmoored by all that is thrown at me every day. Sometimes, I just need to visit my higher power.

First of all – there are so many family members in my own life that have gone on – that I would pay any price for just an hour or two with them.

I have this constant feeling – WHAT HAS MY PROFESSION DONE TO THE AMERICAN PSYCHE THAT PEOPLE ARE BEHAVING TOWARD THEIR OWN FAMILY THIS WAY? What more evidence do we need that massive mistakes have been made?

But just as concerning to me is where these vaccinated people are getting the idea that their celebrations are safe. They are openly planning to have grandma there and openly discussing with me they do not want the unvaxxed unclean there so grandma can have a good time – MASKLESS – with all the vaccinated kids all around. I hear this repeatedly. I fear for the hospital census in December.

Rachel Maddow and Rachelle Walensky as far as I know quit talking about how there is zero spread with the vaccines months ago. Where is this misinformation coming from?

And then one of my patients showed me this clip this AM.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQTmdJYfO4M

Just from this week. Watched by millions of grandmas and housewives.

Right away – there is the framing issue. The evildoer unvaccinated lady is not allowed to be on the set because “our producers take health very seriously.” Laughably, this from the show who famously had to have 2 vaccinated hosts rushed off the stage after being found to be positive during the show. From looking at their YouTube feed, they apparently talk to Jen Psaki all the time. Whoopi – have you checked with Jen how the COVID infection that has taken her out of work for 3 weeks is going? One she obtained fully vaccinated? Ms. Psaki looks like a healthy woman – how is that going to work for diabetic grandmas all over the land that you are misinforming?

But it is the discussion by Ms. Bila – about the actual facts that the vaccinated can spread this just as easily as the unvaccinated that got me. She was ridiculed and shot down by Joy Behar relentlessly. They truly believe that people are completely protected from spread and contagion by these vaccines. Amazing. So many of these elite and media types are profoundly misinformed. And yet they are allowed with abandon to spew misinformation that literally may kill people. And millions are watching her – and BATHING IN THE MISINFORMATION.

Where are the fact checkers and twitter censoring for Ms Behar? In my humble opinion, allowing this kind of thought being spread to millions of grandmas that the vaccines have made them perfectly safe is profoundly dangerous.

I have multiple vaccinated little old ladies very very ill in the hospital right now. Maybe I should see how they think the vaccine protected them. Some of them would likely cuss me out. Profound disappointment is not adequate to describe how some of them feel.

If you are high risk – GET VACCINATED. But never assume that is a silver bullet. It is not. Please spread this far and wide to all you know.

Again, I am heartsick. I simply cannot believe what I am seeing.
 

Andy

Undoubtedly, at least SOME of those “much sicker” patients were put in the ICU by the current “vaccines” themselves.

Undoubtedly? You, no doubt, have some solid evidence to back this up, right? It’s interesting how vaxx skeptics went from “the vaccines are experimental so caution is warranted” to “the vaccines are making people sicker than they’d be if they’d gotten Covid!”

 
  1. IM Doc

    I do not subscribe at all to “vaccines are making people sicker than they’d be if they’d gotten COVID”.

    However – some very hard truths are beginning to emerge – this is an organic from the ground up kind of thing and will take months/years to sort out.

    I was at a medical staff meeting at my own hospital in the past week. We all on the medical staff know that we have been very very busy in the early fall. Usually that time of year is very quiet around here. But we were all horrified to learn that the actual numbers of the patients in the hospital for non-covid non-OB non-peds related issues had literally gone up by double digits – many of the diagnoses had increased by upwards of 50%. These included all the bread and butter medical problems, like CVA, MI, CHF, PE, DVT, pneumonia and most prominently – a huge surge in type I diabetes and other diabetic complications. These numbers on all of these diagnoses were literally off the chart compared to 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017. The abstractor had even done a population based per capita study – and the numbers held. Very strange that all of these diagnoses would be astronomically increasing all at once in OCT 2021. That kind of across the board increase would be unique in my entire career at any hospital.

    The cancer registry is also through the roof – interestingly we are having a major increase in malignant melanoma and renal cell carcinoma. Again – no obvious explanation. Breast cancers were also really elevated compared to their incidence in past Octobers.

    There had been a slow gradual increase in all of these issues during the months of July August and September – but October blew it out of the water.

    The abstractor herself noted that this increase could NOT be attributed to the old line of “people were just holding on to things and not going into the doctor because of the pandemic.” That is just not the case – that may have been true a year ago – but we can tell by office and ER visits that were completely normal since SEP of 2020 that this is no longer the case. People have resumed office and ER visits at a historically normal level more than a year ago. Any effort to blame this on pandemic fright is totally misplaced – and yet I have seen this parroted everywhere in the MSM when they are talking about these hospital surges. The national office visit numbers and Medicare numbers I have seen evaluated in the past 3 months tear this idea to shreds.

    So, what is causing this? And mind you – I am in touch with colleagues all over this country. Similar things are going on everywhere. NPR NBC NYT and now this article have reported on this same phenom as well.

    I have no idea if this is vaccine-related or not. I hope not. But to dismiss that prospect out of hand is not based in the scientific method. We must keep our own eyes open and attuned to data as it comes in. Things may change. Things may get better. But so far in November, if anything this trend at my hospital is getting worse. I have admitted just in the past week 2 young people with acute DKA to the ICU. That is the 4th and 5th DKA/new onset Type I DM I have admitted since July. For comparison – there were zero in the whole year of 2020 – and 1 in 2019.

    I would not use the word undoubtedly to make hypothesis from these data. I would however use the word concerning.

    I would like everyone to realize – it is exactly this same kind of population data that put the nail in the coffin of VIOXX. It became overwhelmingly obvious when looking at broad state or region or nation wide trends that the incidence of CAD and CVA had markedly gone up the years it was on the market and the correlation with VIOXX was tight.

    That of course was back in the day when we had an actually half way functional FDA. The way they have treated myself and many many colleagues I know who have tried to report problems this year unfortunately means we may never know what is going on.

    Way too early to know if this is the case here. I am just telling you it is just as equally unsound to blow it off as it is to hype it. We have no idea what the long-term effects of these vaccines are – and we all should be paying attention. Side effect monitoring used to be a critical thing that primary care docs did. I have noted with concern this year that function somehow seems to have been lost in the “perfectly safe and perfectly effective” mantra we have embraced with these vaccines. We need to wait until much more data is available. I pray that the data is being handled with care.
     

    albrt

    IM Doc – many of us have been expecting long-term damage from Covid itself, just based on the involvement of multiple organ systems. Diabetes is a particular concern – a nurse practitioner friend suddenly acquired diabetes immediately after a Covid-like illness in very early 2020.

    Are you aware of any data (including anecdotal if it is from front-line doctors rather than the internet) that seems to indicate these unusual illnesses are (or are not) related to either Covid history or vaccine history?

     
    1. IM Doc

      This has become such an obvious problem that even an academic center I frequent had a smaller zoom epidemiological conference about this yesterday.

      Serious discussions about what could be the etiology of what is being seen in so many places.

      You start by looking at the data and hypothesizing what may have gone on to cause it.

      Some very good hypotheses I heard yesterday

      The vaccines
      The actual covid infection
      The overall anxiety and stress going on
      The fact many people have been sitting home eating chips and coke and no exercise

      As I stated above, the concept of pandemic fright was not taken too seriously by the epidemiologists because the data does not support that hypothesis.

      This will require poring over months of fine granular detail and nothing is for certain.

      That is why the idea of either blaming the vaccines or instantly exonerating them is really not appropriate in either case right now.

      Again, I pray the data are being cared for honestly. This is profoundly important given that nothing is known about long term side effects of the vaccines.

IM Doc

There have been a few links on this site this week about ivermectin. Including a very well done discussion of the most important extant trials.

I would like to add a few things from my own experience about this drug. And where we are right now. In my area, we are again having what appears to be the early stages of yet another surge of COVID. This time, it is clearly involving many fully vaccinated and even boostered patients. And they are very ill. This is not a joke. In these patients, the vaccines have clearly failed in their mission. Seeing the tide coming in, even Dr. Fauci had to admit as such this week.

We supposedly have the new Pfizer drug (more on that in a second) and we now have the monoclonal antibody therapy. Unfortunately, the supply of the Pfizer drug is non-existent. And we have very limited supplies of the antibody drug. That drug is reserved for only patients that are high-risk and already very ill. Just so you can understand the magnitude of this issue – 68% of the patients who received the antibodies this week in my area were fully vaccinated, many boostered (I do not have that exact %). The other 32% were the unvaccinated. Again – the vaccinated patients are now getting sick enough to be in the “high-risk” group to get antibodies.

I do not believe anyone anticipated we would be in this situation with a fairly significant majority of the population vaccinated – but here we are. And now because of the severe staffing shortages and other issues, it is very important to do all we can to keep people out of the hospital safely.

As I have stated repeatedly, my experience in previous surges with this infection have demonstrated to my own eyes that Ivermectin is very capable of doing this. That is pretty much the only area in which I use it – patients who are positive whether ill or not get started on it immediately in addition to all of their primary contacts. Despite the months of propaganda from MSNBC and the CDC ( don’t take the horse dewormer y’all) , I have yet to have a single person have one issue with this medication. The same cannot be said for the vaccines. However, as is the case in every single viral infection in human medicine, once people are sick enough to be in the hospital, almost nothing works well. One of the agents we have been using, remdesevir, seems to do absolutely nothing beneficial that I can tell and often damages the patients. To be brief at that point of hospital admission – it is 100% support. It is critical to deal with patients early and strong in their illness.

I will say again – I was a very young doctor in the AIDS crisis working in an inner city hospital surrounded by dying AIDS patients at every turn. A very similar story was playing out at the time – and I guess WISDOM is the ability to learn from the mistakes of the past and never let them fool you again.

Pneumocystis carinii – the scourge of AIDS before we had effective anti-virals is the agent that killed the vast majority of my patients back then. Often abbreviated PCP. It causes a severe pneumonia. This bug is most definitely NOT a bacteria. In the 1980s it was thought to be a protozoa like ameba – however now we consider it more like a fungus ( I am not going into that here – suffice it to say it is NOT a bacteria). Interestingly, there were all kinds of agents in the 80s and early 90s for this agent that were actually doing far more damage than good to people – IV and inhaled pentamidine is the most common. And this drug was making mountains of cash for Big Pharma. From the front lines, various docs across the country started using a very old patent-expired ANTI-BACTERIAL called BACTRIM. 2 cents a pill. This had been used for decades at the time mainly in the treatment of urine infections. And docs all over America noticed how well it was working for PCP. All anecdotal – but vigorously shared. We had all had one too many cardiac arrests with the pentamidine. Some papers here and there appeared. All minimal studies because that is all you could really do as a lone wolf at the time. But overwhelming efficacy and minimal safety issues were noted. And then Dr. Fauci sent out the wolves. He and others were very busy promoting vaccine research, and antivirals that were very toxic, and keeping the pentamidine money train going. I sat through one conference after another deriding the use of BACTRIM as a pee pill by NIH experts sent to quell the rebellion. “How dare you use a bacterial agent against this protozoan fungus – the drug is not even in the right class”. The ridicule coming from these people at times was overwhelming. All kinds of papers and statistical manipulation was belched forth to try to subvert the evildoers. But the drug actually worked. And the doctors using it noted it. And persisted. And over the next few years, despite the NIH, Bactrim became the drug of choice for PCP – and still is to this day. I have not written a prescription for pentamidine in decades. Not even sure they still make it.

Therefore, was born an innate skepticism of Big Pharma and indeed of Dr. Fauci, in an entire generation of young doctors in this country.

One huge difference back then is we did not have the odious presence of the pathological liar Rachel Maddow and the morons at the NYT to poison the medical discourse. We did not have Big Pharma owning our entire media landscape with their ad dollars ( that did not start until the mid 1990s hat tip to the assholes Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton). We did not have facebook and twitter and youtube to censor anything that was said about bactrim or pentamidine. We had ourselves, our colleagues, our wits, and our experience and our intellect. It was a much better world.

Unlike so many on both sides of the ivermectin issue which appear to be religious zealots, I came by my usage of this drug by doing a deep dive into the actual science. I was initially quite skeptical. But reading the basic science and some of these clinical trials made me feel very comfortable in trying it. The safety profile is so good that using it in this kind of crisis would be unethical. I am not alone in that assumption. Despite what the talking heads say on TV, every medical ethics conference I have been to about this topic, EVERY SINGLE ONE, to this day continue to state it is UNETHICAL not to use it.

Earlier this year, I attended a few conferences where the pharmacodynamics were discussed and the clinical trials discussed. It was there I learned from a PharmD that I know and trust that Big Pharma was starting their anti viral trials for COVID. And the candidates he had seen HAD EXACTLY THE SAME COURSE OF EFFECT ON COVID AS THE BASIC MEDICINE TRIALS WERE TELLING US ABOUT IVERMECTIN. Let me say that again – at least some of the Big Pharma agents being evaluated had the exact same effect on COVID as Ivermectin. I could not believe that at the time. Because this research is proprietary, it was unavailable to be looked at. But I did share this with the COVID brain trust back then. But here we are – on the verge of having this released – and indeed – THE PFIZER DRUG INHIBITS EXACTLY THE SAME PROTEASE INHIBITOR AS IVERMECTIN. The only difference is that ivermectin seems to be active against multiple other parts of COVID that this new Pfizer drug does not touch.

And where do the American people get to learn this? From Rachel Maddow? Sean Hannity? Chris Cuomo? The Paper of Record the NYT? The New Yorker? – Our elected officials? NO TO ALL – We get to learn this from a retired nurse in Great Britain and a comedian in his garage studio – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xROICA8Hr7I

Please note – the discussion that the nurse gives is the Cliffs note version of what I have been hearing for months. He makes it very easy to understand.

We are a corrupt and unserious nation. That includes my profession. They have managed to propagandize this issue for long enough now that the very word ivermectin is now radioactive. And just in time for the new 800 dollar a course Pfizer drug to hit the market – and there are others from other companies right behind them. Pigs feeding at the trough.

Where are the promised trials? I have been waiting all year. As a non-zealot, I would love to know one way or the other what the efficacy of ivermectin is……Will likely never know at this point. The cash register is just 2 steps away.

If you are high risk, get vaccinated. If you feel you are sick with COVID or are newly positive – get in touch with your doc. At my practice, we are now hitting it with all we have. I now have many patients demanding this approach. The Joe Rogan and Aaron Rodgers screeds from the MSM have done nothing but profoundly increase this desire. Antibodies if available. Ivermectin and fluvoxamine. And all the usual OTC. If you are vaccinated, do not assume there is a halo of protection – there most certainly is not. Continue to be diligent. Lose weight, sleep well, do all you can to decrease your stress level. Protect your vulnerable.

 

Aumua

Tulsi flashing her true hard right domestic stance colors lately. I won’t be surprised to see her pop out as a Republican or some kind of “patriot party” candidate soon.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Yes indeed. And this liberal former Democrat is looking very hard at voting for her and supporting her financially.

    She seems to be one of the only national politicians who has a clue. And has the audacity to be authentic.

    I can never thank her enough for the smack down she applied to Kamala Harris during the debate. That is when I knew she had the balls for national politics.

    Interestingly, my wife and her Democratic friends are all avid supporters of her as well. My wife has basically been a grass roots Dem operative her entire adult life – and can instantly spot those who could actually win – and govern – and build a coalition. She and her entire committee are all in for Tulsi if she chooses to run. She could not do worse than the slimeballs that are up there now.

    I truly believe the national Dem party’s constant denigration of the only authentic viable politician they have left may be yet another sign that the end draweth nigh. If you think you know of another who is both authentic and viable – I am all ears.

     

IM Doc

Has it not been interesting that,unlike every pharmaceutical known to man, a long-list in a rushed hurried voice reading off side effects has not been at the end of all these ads.

From what I know, this listing of side effects is federal law. I cannot see anywhere that this has been rescinded. Especially now that Pfizer has been “FDA approved”.

How or why did these products get an exemption?

 

temporaryreality: (Default)
 First half of November posts and comments

fresno dan

Our illustrius medical system #8
So again the hospital calls me about Covid testing… and I have to explain that I tested positive at their lab (September 10), by their technicians, and it was reported to their doctors. (I was vaccinated and had no symptoms) I have been admited to that hospital twice in the last 4 months, and will be admitted again on Wednesday. No wonder the medical system costs so much – if you pay someone to ask the same question, to which you have the answer, over, and over, and over again and again, which is of no use what so ever, its a big waste of money.
 

IM Doc

Let me explain this phenomenon at least partially –

This has all come from the advent of EMR and the documentation changes started about the same time as Obamacare.
You may not be aware of it – but your physician has to write a document in your chart even for the simplest visit that is basically a 1040 form and 8-10 pages long.

Yes, all of your data is already in their system. But it would require a human brain to go through all the previous notes and data arrays and pull it out and put it in the new note. It is so much easier for the patient to sit in the waiting room and do all that work for them. All of that data you are entering goes into the note from that day’s visit – and is critically important for the level of care and the reimbursement that your doctor’s non-profit corporation gets from that visit to fund the multimillion dollar salaries the MBA CEO on the golf course is getting.

It is a completely malevolent process. I despise it in every way. I fought this shit for years – and got nowhere.. This is a huge reason why I now make my home in Green Acres far far away from any kind of “non-profit” corporation.

I will repeat again – the EMR, evidence-based medicine, and corporate owned health care are the three things that have most destroyed my profession. All 3 are demons from hell. I would give anything to go back in time to when the nuns were running our hospitals. It was not perfect for sure – but at least patient care was a top priority.

Off covid-topic, but interesting:
 

IM Doc

Anecdotes from a very remote area – the end of the supply line – and where my family and I live – I guess we are going to feel it first because of the remoteness.

We do not eat out that much – but this was a holiday weekend – and so we ate out on both Friday and Saturday. Not many national chains here almost all local.

Friday night – a very nice upscale American cuisine type place. The first thing that gave me shivers because of a flashback to my 1970s youth was seeing the menus covered in little sticky papers so the prices could easily be changed between menu printings – talk about a flashback to the 1970s.

The waitress arrived – and went through a laundry list of items that were on the menu that were not currently available – like 20 things. Anything having to do with calamari, seafood, pork were the three I remember the most. We all got hamburgers – and that was that. No mayonnaise available – and each patron was given one pack of ketchup – no ketchup bottles available. The people at the next table ordered pizza – and we heard the waitress telling them cheese only – they cannot procure any of the processed meat like pepperoni at this time.

The next night we went to the local Mexican place. Chips were brought but no salsa and no queso. The dip brought with the chips was some kind of Mexican cole slaw. Lots of cabbage and not much else. Asked the waiter – where is the salsa? – we got 1 box of tomatoes instead of our usual 12. All tomatoes are being used for the entrees. No queso because we have no processed cheese. And they too had begun to use the sticky price approach on the menu.

Went to the grocery store on Sunday – again very minimal canned vegetables and fruits. Interesting that all the fresh varieties of the same seemed to be in abundance in the produce area….Are people hoarding the cans? Or are we having some kind of problem making or distributing cans? Who knows? The pharmacy area looked like it had been looted. OTC meds, shampoo and soap largely empty.

Our grocery always does a turkey promotion this time of the year – not this time. No free turkeys. And when you got to the turkey area where historically there would be freezers full – there were two. And I mean big ones – that only grandma would dare to cook.

This has been going on for weeks….I am starting to get a little alarmed. And so thankful the family and I spent our summer canning our garden stuff. Multiple 50 lb bags of flour and sugar and rice all stored safely and ready to go.

***
 

British Medical Journal: “Researcher Blows the Whistle on Data Integrity Issues in Pfizer’s Vaccine Trial”

So far, no major US or UK press outlet has taken up an article at the British Medical Journal that calls the integrity of the Pfizer clinical trials for the Covid-19 vaccine into question. At a minimum, the results for 1 000 of the roughly 44,000 participants were compromised.

IM Doc, who was the first of several to send this link along, said it was also discussed at a conference yesterday. A participant told him a speaker said: “If true, this is terminally damning and none of the data of that trial can be believed.”

The BMJ substantiated the claims of a former regional director and trained clinical trial auditor Brook Jackson of Ventavia Research Group, which was running a portion of the Pfizer Covid-19 clinical trials in several sites in Texas. In the two weeks she was involved, she saw data falsification, unblinding, poorly trained vaccinators, negligence via not following up on some serious adverse events, and large scale failure to complete test on participants who reported Covid-type symptoms. Jackson first escalated internally, and when that got nowhere, reported to the FDA. She was fired the same day.

The BMJ published this list of half the concerns Jackson reported to the FDA:

Participants placed in a hallway after injection and not being monitored by clinical staff

Lack of timely follow-up of patients who experienced adverse events

Protocol deviations not being reported

Vaccines not being stored at proper temperatures

Mislabelled laboratory specimens, and

Targeting of Ventavia staff for reporting these types of problems.

Jackson received a follow-up call from the FDA but there was no indication the agency took action. In fact, 11 months later, when the Pfizer vaccine received full approval, the FDA had peculiarly not inspected the Ventavia research sites despite the company fully expecting an inspection and being in fear of it before Jackson filed her complaint. From the BMJ:

… after the full approval of Pfizer’s vaccine, the FDA published a summary of its inspections of the company’s pivotal trial. Nine of the trial’s 153 sites were inspected. Ventavia’s sites were not listed among the nine, and no inspections of sites where adults were recruited took place in the eight months after the December 2020 emergency authorisation. The FDA’s inspection officer noted: “The data integrity and verification portion of the BIMO [bioresearch monitoring] inspections were limited because the study was ongoing, and the data required for verification and comparison were not yet available to the IND [investigational new drug].”

Allowing Pfizer to withhold data is simply outrageous. As IM Doc said by-mail:

This is exactly why I spent so much time in the original Pfizer research guest post about the fact that my mentors would have literal carts full of binders of just the kind of data being discussed in this BMJ report. That was back in the day when peer review meant just that. They would have gone over these data in fine granular detail. This kind of thing would have been caught.

I am not sure that level of access was even provided to the peer reviewers in this case – or pretty much most anything these days – it is all proprietary. And as I pointed out in the guest post, Dr Rubin a member of the FDA committee admitted in the radio interview that he had not even bothered to look at the material for Moderna just a day or two before the vote. This BMJ article is bringing to light what happens when people just simply do not care and do not do their jobs. But gladly accept paychecks and favors for their companies or interests.

We pointed out late last year that STAT, which is hardly an anti-drug company publication, had criticized the FDA for obvious and grotesque corners-cutting on its data validation when the Emergency Use Authorization was issued. STAT came down on the FDA because it assumed the FDA had not allowed enough time and had not assigned enough manpower to the task. Reading between the lines with the benefit of the new BMJ report, it instead appears the FDA let Pfizer provide very little data and the FDA tolerated that and hence didn’t have much of a data-scrubbing/testing task. From its Did the FDA understaff its review of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine?:

In what is arguably the most important decision the Food and Drug Administration has made this year — its emergency use authorization of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine — the agency apparently assigned only a single reviewer in each of two key scientific disciplines (clinical and statistics) to do the work in three weeks that usually takes months to do….

Unlike its counterparts in other countries, the FDA is believed to be the only drug regulator in the world that consistently receives and reviews patient-level data from the clinical trials that underpin drug and vaccine approvals. To perform such rigorous analyses, the FDA typically spends around 10 months (a mere six months for applications given “priority review” designation) in an effort that involves reviews by experts representing various scientific disciplines: clinical medicine, statistics, pharmacology, chemistry, pharmacovigilance, and more…

Given the urgency of the pandemic, the review of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was conducted far faster than usual. The centerpiece of the analysis was data from the company’s 44,000-participant Phase 3 trial. FDA reviewers had just three weeks, from Nov. 20 to Dec. 11, to complete their analyses. It was a monumental task, which raises the question: Why didn’t the FDA devote additional reviewers to it? According to the FDA’s review memo, some scientific disciplines, such as pharmacovigilance, had multiple reviewers involved. But the two disciplines tasked with examining the clinical trial data and results, the clinical and statistical reviewers, were seemingly left to do their work solo.

This seems wholly inadequate on at least two levels. First, without additional reviewers it is hard to comprehend how the work of several months could be squeezed into a matter of 22 days (including Saturdays and Sundays). In-depth review calls for examining patient-level data — a large feat that involves auditing and reviewing individual case records as well as independently rerunning analyses on the raw data.

I find this section the most troubling:

After Jackson left the company problems persisted at Ventavia, this employee said. In several cases Ventavia lacked enough employees to swab all trial participants who reported covid-like symptoms, to test for infection. Laboratory confirmed symptomatic covid-19 was the trial’s primary endpoint, the employee noted. (An FDA review memorandum released in August this year states that across the full trial swabs were not taken from 477 people with suspected cases of symptomatic covid-19.)

477 missed test results out of 40,000ish participants may not sound like much until you recall the very small number of infections that served as the basis of Pfizer’s efficacy claims. From the New England Journal of Medicine paper on the Pfizer clinical trial:

Among 36,523 participants who had no evidence of existing or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 8 cases of Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose were observed among vaccine recipients and 162 among placebo recipients.

I don’t see how anyone can believe the efficacy claims in light of the much larger number of possible Covid cases that Pfizer never bothered to diagnose.1

The BMJ report also warns that the unblinding that took place at the Ventavia sites could have been a large-scale problem:

Early and inadvertent unblinding may have occurred on a far wider scale. According to the trial’s design, unblinded staff were responsible for preparing and administering the study drug (Pfizer’s vaccine or a placebo). This was to be done to preserve the blinding of trial participants and all other site staff, including the principal investigator. However, at Ventavia, Jackson told The BMJ that drug assignment confirmation printouts were being left in participants’ charts, accessible to blinded personnel. As a corrective action taken in September, two months into trial recruitment and with around 1000 participants already enrolled, quality assurance checklists were updated with instructions for staff to remove drug assignments from charts.

As Lambert tartly observed: “If so, we don’t really have an RCT at all.”

As IM Doc summed up:

This is exactly the reason I recoil from “evidence based medicine”. As a profession, we no longer understand that the “evidence” is literally just what Pharma wants you to see. I learned that the hard way with Vioxx and also the opiates. The scales fell off the eyes when it became clear how much they had lied and manipulated.

This Pfizer research is “pristine” in the eyes of the evidence based medicine folks. It has been peer-reviewed. It was an RCT. It had more than sufficient power. It was accompanied by an editorial in one of the world’s leading medical journals describing it as a triumph. EVIDENCE – on a grand scale. Nobel potential. And yet – it may have been fatally compromised by laziness on Pfizer’s part and everyone that reviewed it. And the motivation of these independent research companies is to keep the cash coming – no matter how sloppy they do their work. I have been involved in more than one complete audit of trials in their hands that have gone bad like this. This is why I have a problem with “evidence based medicine”. EBM is nothing more than Pharma’s way to control the minds of physicians.

No one who has been paying attention should be surprised that vaccination rates have no correlation with Covid case levels. These vaccines were falsely sold as magic bullets for the pandemic. Politicians desperately wanted a solution. Medical professionals and investigators had long accepted Big Pharma giving them the mushroom treatment. So we have vaccines that do have utility in protecting individuals from the worst outcomes, but don’t do much good in preventing contagion.

And this mis-selling of what the vaccines do is of critical importance. GM has made this argument repeatedly:

The existence of vaccines will kill more people than vaccines will save directly.

Because it gives the politicians the excuse to let it rip.

Without vaccines the daily death toll becomes unacceptable and someone has to do something about it and contain the contagion. Which we know how to do, we just don’t want to.

With vaccines it either becomes “tolerable” (even if it is nothing but; see the UK) or even if it does break hospitals (as happened in many states in the US in August and is still happening in various places), it can be ignored by blaming the “anti-vaxxers”.

But in the long term it is the area under the curve that matters.

Welcome to a world run for the benefit of Big Pharma.

_____

1 And remember, before you say, “Oh, Pfizer couldn’t have done anything nefarious,” we pointed out last December that the study was effectively unblinded to the participants and the study nurses who kept on top of reactions and were tasked with determining if someone who reported Covid-like symptoms needed to be tested. They could identify a fair number who’d gotten the vaccine by virtue of the high level that had bad reactions to the first and even more often to the second shot, the prototypical feeling really sick for 6 to 48 hours. As we wrote:

Epidemiologist Ignacio had already raised another concern: that the high frequency of strong adverse reactions meant the study was unblinded to those patients:

First and foremost, we are looking to very transient results obtained in a period too short to be relevant to evaluate the efficacy of the vaccine. It is well known that vaccines induce antibody peaks just about 12 days after the second shot. We are looking at this peak. Very relevant regarding the possibility of some short lived sterilizing protection in the upper mucosa.

Second, the high reactogenicity of the vaccine, way higher than the placebo, removes one of the blindnesses of the trial. You know if you are a recipient of the vaccine. As IM Doc says, the reactogenicity is way above what can be considered normal or standard and with potential to be problematic, and a behaviour changer in the recipients which can have very significant effects in the numbers observed obtained in so short times after vaccination. This effect will be diluted by time in later reviews but it can be quite important in the first review.

STAT agreed that the effective unblinding was a concern:

One of us (P.D.) raised questions about potential unblinding in the trials through the vaccine’s side effects, as well as about the confounding effects of fever- and pain-reducing medications, which participants in the vaccine arm took three to four times more often than those in the placebo arm. Yet the FDA’s review shows no evidence that any of its scientists investigated either of these issues, and without more scientific staff devoted to the task it is hard to imagine how they could.
***


It's possibly worthwhile to visit the main page of this post to read the whole comment thread. Here's one of IM Doc's that appears there:

IM Doc

With all due respect – I would not pay any attention at all to Webster’s Dictionary in this case. The definition of vaccine was indeed changed on the CDC website itself sometime in early September of this year. That is not in dispute. I have been at a lecture in the past 2 weeks decrying this fact – showing the two definitions side by side – listening to the speaker, a vaccinologist, demonstrating complete chagrin that the new definition the CDC has put forth made no historical sense whatsoever.

I would also direct your attention to a recently FOIAd email chain from the CDC officials themselves in early September.

https://www.scribd.com/document/536749738/CDC-Emails#from_embed

My question would be – “What do “certain people” and their statements have a thing to do with how the CDC defines a scientific/medical term like vaccine?” When do “certain people” have a say in what has been decided science for generations? Who indeed are “certain people”? If “certain people” are causing such confusion by their statements, why is the CDC not directly addressing those statements, instead of this kind of run-around – guaranteed to further erode their credibility?”

I am not one for falling for right wing conspiracy theories or talking points. But when one of them goes out of the way to produce a FOIA – and you can clearly see that the definition was changed strictly for political or “messaging” reasons by high level officials at the CDC almost as a lark – well – a reasonable person left or right can deduce that we have a problem.

Why is our main stream media not ALL OVER this kind of thing. If we are going to change the definition of vaccine for valid reasons – let’s have a discussion and a conversation about it. If we are doing it because “certain people” are making us look bad or asking tough questions – well, that is straight out of Orwell – and does not make the CDC look good at all.

Can you point to me where these CDC emails have been denied or refuted? It would make me feel much better if you could.

****

IM Doc

The last three days here in my office after the election have been quite revealing. The intensity just keeps increasing.

My most important job as a physician is to be an advocate for my patients. I still have a love/hate relationship with the modern Dem party – of which I have been an active part for the past several decades – I guess I would add that what I am about to say is an attempt to advocate for what is left of them too. Hopefully, some elected Dem officials read this blog and comments – maybe it will help them get a clue.

Since WED AM, I have had in my office 3 different patients, all blue collar working young men, all 3 from 3 different ethnic groups – all in occupations that we now consider front line and vital – and all are critical to the current supply issues in this country. All 3 work for national corporations who have now been mandating the vaccine – and their time is up. All 3 have resigned – plunging their 3 separate companies into even further chaos ( 2 of them are quite critical) at least locally.

They will not be taking the vaccine. There is no convincing them otherwise. ALL THREE have IgG titers to COVID that are over 50. They have all had COVID in the past year. I have written exemptions on this basis for all 3 – and they have been summarily dismissed. I as their physician am not even allowed to speak with anyone in HR. That is simply out of the question.

The companies are going to take a revolver to the head to kill a fly – and blow their own heads off. There is no scientific or medical explanation for this behavior – none at all.

The young men have all resigned. They however are all going to be OK – although there are tears of anger and frustration this week. One has lined up a journeyman electrician position, one will be starting at plumbing school/apprenticeship and the other will be starting to work at his own uncle’s welding business as an apprentice. All have told the trucking and rail industries that they worked for that they can rot. I know all of these kids’ families – and their parents and grandparents are all FDR type blue collar Dems. They have all known this day was coming – and all of these family members have been in and out of my office the past few weeks – with all kinds of variations on FJB. EVERY SINGLE ONE. They have been life – long Dems. That is now over. A realignment is happening on a grand scale in this country. If the Dems are not careful – they are going to find themselves all alone with the PMC – while all their other constituencies melt away. It is happening here slowly and surely in my blue area right before my very eyes.

THIS WILL NOT BE FORGOTTEN. NOR HAS A SINGLE PATIENT IN THIS SITUATION FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS – NOT ONE – HAD A THING TO SAY ABOUT THE GOP – NOT A WORD – it has all been FJB.

I am not sure I have ever seen such a self-own politically in my life. DEMS – If you are reading this – you need to wake up – this is going to be a disaster for you.

But let me tell you what is going to be worse.

I have had dozens of young parents in my office the past few months who as a part of their visit ask me if my kids are going to be vaccinated. My response is NO – the math just does not work out for healthy kids to accept that risk. I just cannot see doing this until much more is known. The calculus is completely different for those who have cancer, cystic fibrosis etc. Many European countries whose health officials have not proven to be liars or gasbags have come to the same conclusion.

I have now had 3 families in the past 2 months as new patients that have moved from their deep blue coastal area to get away from the forced kid mandates and the craziness in the schools. Dems all. But no more. The political talk in my office has been unprecedented. I do not engage in it or participate. I do listen. It is all FJB – or insert governor of choice – looking right at you New Jersey. That was not an accident on Tuesday.

The absolute rage that is building for any attempt to force a mandate on kids is something I have never seen before. I think this will be an absolute red line for many parents – red or blue.

The current statistics tell us that between 1 and 3000 and 1 in 6000 of these kids are going to have heart problems. They may be over or underestimating – that is the best guess right now. Other countries have paid attention. These Dem leaders have not – THEY WILL NOW OWN EVERY SINGLE PROBLEM WITH THESE KIDS – and the above stats are just the heart problems – I am hearing things from friends that chill me about other issues.

When I was young, it was not unheard of for politicians of both parties to bring up Biblical concepts to make points. The Dems were very good at bringing up moral issues right out of the Sermon on the Mount. That was long ago – before it was considered shameful to discuss morality and Scriptures in our new Science-Techno world.

It was therefore very discordant to hear the Dem NY Gov Hochul start talking about Jesus the other day – and “acts of love”. It is very clear modern politicians should not be doing that – they have lost the ability to do it with meaning and impact. They appear condescending instead.

As a veteran of years of Sunday School – I can quote Jesus right back at people. And the quote that has been running through my head the past few weeks about mandating vaccines for kids is right out of the Book of Mark – 9:42 – “And whosoever shall offend one of these little ones that believe in me, it is better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and he were cast into the sea.”

Dems, I am doing what I can to warn you. YOU ARE GOING TO OWN EVERY BIT OF THIS. I have been doing this for 30 years – have never had people openly discussing their disdain for a current situation like this – NEVER. I fear this is not going to go well for you at all if you keep this up. I hope someone is paying attention.

I was young during the AIDS crisis. I saw what the HIV anti-virals did for AIDS in this country virtually overnight. Would it not be wise, Dems, to put this non-sterilizing vaccine stuff on the sidelines – and let’s wait and see what happens with the new drugs? It has all the potential to be a game-changer – just like with HIV.

Sorry all, this has been a crazy week. Very very busy – but not with COVID.

Thank you for allowing me to rant.
 

IM Doc

I should add – all of my kids have been vaccinated with all other childhood vaccines.

Without one second of hesitation on my part. The math of risk/benefit makes absolute sense in every case.

The vast majority of these concerned parents are the same way – and I would say most of them like myself have been fully vaccinated for COVID as adults. Many of them, like myself, became an unfortunate statistic of a breakthrough COVID infection. Many of them have shared breakthrough stories of family or friends. Some media types are STILL to this day peddling the lie that breakthroughs are rare, further eroding any credibility they may have had. It is so common as to be a constant discussion for me all day in these situations and most notably about boosters. In my part of the world, the older high risk people seem to be happily lining up for boosters – which is good. The younger people are not so pliant. I am not at all sure how this is going to turn out either.

It is the spectre of the COVID vaccines which have not been fully tested that are of concern to everyone with regard to the kids.


diptherio

Re: Covid tests

We are in trouble. We are seeing a lot of unvaccinated children & young adults scary part is even older vaccinated people coming in very sick

All their tests are negative so no one thinks they have COVID that’s of the people who agree to test. They have all the COVID symptoms
https://twitter.com/DrCSWilliam/status/1457708785720569867

IM Doc

 

He should be testing them for RSV and Coronavirus OC43 – both of which have very similar presenting symptoms as COVID.

But the problem there is the test is actually a panel test. (I do believe that you can do RSV by itself – but that often does not cross the doc’s mind in adult patients. It should this year however.). These panel tests are often 20 or so viral tests at once – and can cost up to 2000 dollars – maybe more. The cost of which is almost universally bounced by insurance companies as being un-needed. Therefore I am very hesitant to order these tests on people who I know cannot afford them. That includes most everyone under Medicare age on our current crappy insurance. ( Never had any issues ordering these tests and having them covered until Obamacare and its insane deductibles came around). Now, if I feel it is essential and really important not to miss, I have a sit down talk with the patient about the cost. ( Yet another thing I am doing so many times weekly that I never had to do before Obamacare.).

Here is the thing – the RSV wave has struck very very early this year. Usually a DEC-MAR event – it has been horrific here and in all kinds of places in the middle of the summer. Very unusual. Happening in adults all the time as well. I have now had more positive OC43 patients in the past 3 months that literally triple my lifetime numbers from 3 decades. It too is usually a winter thing – and very uncommon for people to be sick enough to seek medical attention. But not this year.

As has been the case for 18 months, strange things are happening.

But – no – the answer is not to just to assume every negative test is wrong and that your patient has COVID. That comes from the fear and panic and crazy that has been going on the past 2 years. Some of them are probably falsely negative for sure – but most – absolutely not. It is a very bad habit I have seen being picked up by HCW everywhere – BLAME EVERYTHING ON COVID.

This next post (not a comment) was featured on NC as part of their fundraising drive - but it's worth putting here because it gives an insight into who IM Doc is and why his comments matter..

IM Doc: Naked Capitalism – Fierce and Independent Thinking in the Age of Covid

By IM Doc, an internal medicine doctor practicing in flyover

Yves had asked me to write something for pledge week and it was my absolute honor to do so.  Sites like this one are so rare in our discourse and I feel we should do all we can to maintain them. So please contribute at the Tip Jar!

I have followed this site religiously and daily for more than a decade.  I never commented because I am not an expert on much of anything but Internal Medicine, Medical History & Ethics,  and Classical History & Languages.  CalPERS shenanigans and corporate malfeasance are just not in my wheelhouse.  But all through those years, I read the Links and Water Coolers religiously and also the comments. 

And what an amazing and rare site this is.  Rational discourse between rational actors with respect and admiration for one another.  And a fundamental decency when it comes to arguments.  I heard Joe Rogan on podcast the other day describe Social Media perfectly.  I can attest that he hit it right out of the park – “Twitter and Facebook are nothing more than a mental hospital with the inmates spending all day throwing shit at each other.”  Exactly correct.  The amount of work to moderate this kind of site and make sure it remains valuable I know is overwhelming and I cannot give Yves and Lambert and Jerri-Lynn and all the others too many kudos for their hard work. So don’t forget to help out via the Tip Jar.

As you can only imagine, the past two years have been incredibly difficult for myself and every health care worker in America.  What really bothered me early on was the complete lack of rational discourse and truth-telling that was happening in our media.  But I saw both here – and found a place where I could read links and comments and be forced to ponder – often in a manner that was just simply not happening in the medical world.  And it just so happened that I am indeed a trained professional in this area and before long I started commenting.

I am not a journalist.  Nor an investigative reporter.  I am a physician who has done everything I can to strive to do the very best job I could for my patients during this nightmare.  I also do everything in my power to be a truth-teller.  It is the way I was raised.  And what I was seeing on the ground in real life in my world and what was being reported in the news were often completely divergent.  More concerning to me was the media and its incessant bathing in histrionics and panic porn.  I could see the results of this in the psyche of my patients and felt compelled to do something, anything, about it.

The foundational figure in Internal Medicine is a physician of the early 20th Century by the name of Sir William Osler.  One of his seminal works is a piece extolling what he thought was the most important characteristic of any physician – AEQUANIMITAS – which is Equanimity.   The ability to stay on an even keel through even the most dire of situations.  To be the Rock of Gibraltar for your patients when their world was falling apart.  I have spent my life pounding that cardinal concept into the brains of hundreds of students over the years.  And what I saw on TV from the likes of all the talking head doctors and our federal health officials was the absolute exact polar opposite.

Sir William Osler.  The founder of Internal Medicine.  The man who singlehandedly put Johns Hopkins Medicine on the map.  One of my foundational heroes in life.  I have spent much time the past 18 months on very dark days filling my mind with his exploits, his writing, and what his peers had to say about him.  One of the most poignant statements I have found was written by Harvey Cushing MD, the founder of Neurosurgery as a profession in this country.  Upon hearing of Sir William’s death, Harvey Cushing wrote the following,  paraphrased from the Book of Isaiah -which later became part of Cushing’s masterpiece – Consecatio Medici.  I quote:

And that man shall be as a hiding place from the wind, and a covert from the tempest; as rivers of water in a dry place, as the shadow of a rock in a weary land.

That is how Dr. Cushing felt about his mentor Sir William Osler.  It also encapsulates how I feel about my mentors of Medicine and how I know they would have responded to this COVID crisis.   Nobel Laureates, textbook writers, seminal medical figures of the 20th Century they were – and somehow I know in my heart that they would have been very disappointed in where we are today in Medicine.

A brief story about my very first day of internship all those years ago.  My first attending was an Infectious Disease doctor.  And my team had just admitted 19 patients the night before.  We were slammed.  The resident had to go to Morning Report – and the attending looked at me and said “IM Doc will take us to the easy patients first.”  And so off we went.  In those days, the intern, who had been up all night, stood at the head of the bed with the attending on his immediate left.  No notes allowed.  The full presentation came from memory.  This first patient was a middle aged VietNam veteran with chest pain.  I presented the patient in complete detail.  The Infectious Disease attending looked at me – “IM Doc, please tell me how the diagnosis of meliodosis would fit in this patient.”  “Ummm Sir – I never considered meliodosis in this patient. I am not really sure what that is.”   And he looked at the patient and announced – “I sincerely apologize for the complete incompetence from this intern today.  Believe me, we will get this straightened out – and he and I will be back later today.”

My very first patient as an intern.  I just wanted to go back to the farm.  But this attending did not give up.  He taught me to be tough under pressure.  To be confident and most importantly to tell the truth and admit what you do and do not know.  It was intense.  It was a trial by fire and it was a frat hazing.  But treatment from him and similar treatment all year round during that year made me who I am today.  And he and I became fast friends all the rest of the days of his life.  He was a mentor in every way to me.

We do not expose medical students to that kind of intensity today.  Not even close.  Anyone doing that would instantly be branded an evildoer and ridden out of town.  But that is the way it has been done for generations – and I fear something has been lost.

And I see the results of this every day in my life now.  We were just a generation ago taught to be fierce and independent thinkers.  To question everything.  To realize that answers were a quest and authority was often the wrong place to look for help.  We took the scientific method and applied it to each and every patient decision.  We were taught to be comprehensive and unyielding in our advocacy for our patients and their very best outcome.  We were taught that our patients were to be treated always with the utmost in care and ethical behavior.

Somehow, my profession has lost its way.  We have handed over our autonomy to corporations and hedge funds.  We have completely fragmented the care our patients receive.  There is often no one “in charge”.  We acquiesce like sheep to all kinds of suggestions from our betters no matter how imbecile they are.  Doctors come and go from practices as if staying longer than two years was a mortal sin.  The vast majority of us are now employees and are completely powerless to effect change no matter how important.

Many are now talking about moral injury among Health Care Workers, and this could not be more true.  I hear constantly, and I mean constantly, my colleagues all around the country decrying how this whole COVID situation has gone down.  But yet they are up to their eyeballs in debt – either from school loans or their million dollar homes – and can simply not afford to question or make waves.  I am absolutely certain a reckoning for my profession is on the way, and it cannot came soon enough.

I however do not feel all that trapped.  Because of sites and sources like Naked Capitalism, I long ago realized that personal debt was one of the big sins of the American way.  I long ago realized that our current neoliberal and corporate culture was almost in every way driven by motives that were the exact antithesis to ethical behavior.  And I planned my life accordingly.

I am in a position where I can speak out, even anonymously, and I have felt morally obligated to do so.  I have felt the absolute compulsion to speak for those in medicine like my mentors who have already gone on.  And I will be eternally grateful for Yves and Lambert for allowing me to speak freely.  There were times this year I was reporting to them things that were completely in a different universe than what the CDC was saying.  Even I was beginning to question my sanity.  But they never wrote it off.  They doubled down on getting accurate information out there.  And I can tell you as a member of the COVID brain trust – just how much crazy they sift through every day.  They have my undying respect.

Mrs. IM Doc has been very concerned about me lately.  I have aged years in just the past 18 months.  This entire thing has taken a huge personal toll on me and indeed all of my colleagues.  I now understand the mental and spiritual toll that questioning the dictates of authority can cause.   I saw this in my attendings during the AIDS crisis – and now it is my turn.  Their one overarching lesson – is to not stray from the truth – and when you are wrong immediately admit it.

As is happening all over the country, in my community, two primary care physicians have announced their very early retirements in just the past few weeks.  Their thousands of patients will now have to be cared for.  There is just simply not enough capacity anymore.  I know from talking to others that similar issues are occurring everywhere.  This problem has been building for years in my profession.  It has taken a crisis to bring it to the fore.  I am very concerned about our immediate future.

One thing is for certain – we are not going to hear the true extent of our culture’s problems in medicine from our media and its blind loyalty to Big Pharma, Big Hospital, and Big Insurance.  It is going to take sites like Naked Capitalism to fill the gap – and I urge everyone to support this site in any way possible. If you can give, give generously, the Tip Jar tells you how.

You can also contribute by telling your friends and family about Naked Capitalism, sharing posts and comments, and making comments of your own.

And speaking of commenters, my deepest gratitude for all the commenters who have put up with me and corrected me and told me when I am full of crap.  The best commenters in the universe.
*****

St. John’s asks for supply donations during global shortage Buck Rail. This is admittedly in flyover and so both remote and not a favored customer, but IM Doc has CEO patients and reports:

My understanding is that we are about 2 months or so of completely running out [of aluminum]. A large part of this is the shipping issue in LA and Long Beach – but apparently, recycled aluminum has to be manufactured with some very cranky equipment breaking down a lot. And there are apparently now no parts. Nor are there wisened old technicians that know how to fix the machines. At least not enough of them….

I understand from my ortho colleaugues that they have had to keep any number of patients in the hospital because they are not safe to do PT at home. No crutches. No walkers. No aluminum anything. This has been going on for the past 2-3 weeks or so. Literally none. The hospital has crutches that it uses but at this point the supply is so low that they will not leave the building.


The Rev Kev

“St. John’s asks for supply donations during global shortage”

I have to admit that I do not understand the helplessness on display here. Aluminium crutches? Look, how about going with wooden crutches and forget aluminium ones. I am pretty sure that there is no patent on them nor do they need constant software updates. Here are some plans that took me all of 20 seconds to find online-

https://www.wikihow.com/Make-Simple-Crutches

You put out a standard plan of them and ask help from any place that has a wood-shop. Schools, prisons maybe, home-handymen, hobbyists. Use the money that would have been spent on aluminium ones for timber and the fittings instead. It would not take long to build up a supply of them and probably in different sizes.
 

IM Doc

Yes, this same issue is occurring at my hospital as well and I hear from docs all over that this is happening not infrequently. I heard yesterday that a big non-profit corp in one of our big cities has put a moratorium on all durable medical equipment leaving the buildings in any way.

The wood issue brought above is very important. Modern ortho devices are not usually made of wood for 2 reasons. The one Yves brought up is one of them. It is easier for PT and rehab to work with patients with lighter and stronger equipment. Plus, when wood breaks it often causes injuries. I have really never seen an aluminum crutch break.

The second reason is also very important. WOOD of any kind is a Petri dish. In the past 30 years or so, there has been a sustained move away from using anything made of wood in patient areas. Using metal where it is possible is a much better barrier for bacterial infections. There is a reason all the doorknobs in homes decades ago were made of brass or copper. The same issue applies to all the metal objects being used in patient care in modern hospitals.

Just think – we have determined some very amazing ways to decrease infections in the hospital. How many of those are going to go bye-bye unless we can figure out this supply problem? I can think of multiple others that are vulnerable. How long is this going to last? And what will be left with in the wake?

Something that has also crossed my mind – but I have heard literally nothing about is titanium. I do not even know if there is a problem. Titanium has become indispensable in modern medicine. All kinds of equipment – and implants like hip replacements. If we are struggling with aluminum – is titanium that far behind?

As far as the other comment about medical waste. I could not agree with you more. Take one look at any hospital and you will see a Mt Everest of trash going out every day. If you think the consumer throwaway and crapification culture is bad – you haven’t seen anything until you look in a hospital.

I am just old enough to remember when for example saline was given in glass bottles that were then recycled and autoclaved in the hospital and used over again. And again. Now mountains of plastic bags are thrown away every day. This is for two reasons – first of all MBAs run the hospitals – and CHEAP! Is literally the only consideration.

Secondly, in modern medicine, saline is used as holy water. Every patient in the hospital is getting it in often exorbitant amounts. Saline was used quite sparingly when I was a young doctor. It is a constant struggle to get these young kids to break this cycle. You see – medicine is now a “check box” operation. Order sets magically appear and you just check boxes on a computer – no brain work involved. It is really that way. I cannot tell you how many situations I have been in with students and residents where they were literally flooding a patient’s lungs. It is a constant battle. And that is just saline. Mounds and mounds of plastic on every drug used in the hospital. Where reusable glass and metal was the rule just a generation ago.

This society has a lot of lessons to learn.
 

IM Doc

A question I forgot to ask – maybe someone here would have some insight.

Much has been made in some corners about the disappearance of Gavin Newsome. I have heard all kinds of wild stuff – up to and including him having a bad reaction to the COVID booster.

I think all of that talk is just a deflection for the masses.

What I cannot get out of my brain at this point is the following. We have a supply crisis that has now officially landed in hospitals all over America…

Forget the booster shot – this is a crisis for which the ports in HIS state are largely responsible.

WHERE THE HELL IS HE?

If we do not have our governors on the job and working during this kind of crisis – why on earth do we even have them?

*****

On this post:

McKinsey, the Force Multiplier for the Opioid Crisis, Goes All in With Anti-Public-Health Messaging on Covid

IM Doc is quoted (the full post may be of interest to readers but I'm not including it here):

IM Doc added:

Having an infectious disease become endemic is not the same as having a sore throat as much as our media would like to portray it that way. If COVID follows form to the previous coronavirus pandemics that have become endemic, we have literally years to go before our immune systems collectively call a truce with it.

I do not see the vaccines making a huge dent in this – especially the way we have chosen to play that game. HIV is raging in Africa but not here in the developed world….Why? We just simply do not make our meds available cheaply to them….The CEOs need to make tens of millions for their yachts. Why do people think this would be any different with COVID vaccines or therapies? Alfred Schweitzer and Jonas Salk are long gone. Today, it is all about greed. And things are going to be worlds different between HIV and COVID. COVID is going to be infinitely more difficult to contain.

IM Doc

This article – https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-11-12/cdc-shifts-pandemic-goals-away-from-reaching-herd-immunity

I do not know when exactly – probably a year ago during the initial vaccine push, I was making the point repeatedly in comments here that herd immunity was simply not achievable in coronaviruses and several other virus families. This has been settled science for decades. As I have pointed out, when you look at basic science on coronaviruses and respiratory viruses in general, this simple fact is clearly stated. Herd immunity like we see in the measles for instance is simply not something that will ever happen with this virus. But yet Fauci, Walensky and others were pushing this all the time for months on end.

It is not that I am that much of an expert, it is literally settled science over decades of time. And now almost 2 years later, the experts at the CDC are going to change their tactics because the herd immunity promised with these vaccines is not possible.

Did someone just now at this late date at the CDC bother to look at a standard issue Infectious Disease text?

When you begin your argument with lies and dissembling, it is not long you have painted yourself into a corner. When you keep going, before long you become a babbling moron. Our health officials have now earned that status with a good chunk, possibly a majority, of our population. And I promise you, the derision is so intense, that it will not be recovered, at least in our life times. It pains me to say that. But facts are facts. And the number of doubters is growing daily.

If herd immunity is not possible, what then is the medical or scientific reason for a vaccine mandate or a vaccine passport? – I am all ears. Please someone, anyone, explain this to me so I can help my ever growing panel of despondent patients who are now living through the torment of their lives. It is clear in my little community, this torment is harming way more young families and little kids than COVID ever will. The constant stress of young fathers unable to staff their businesses or fill their orders and having their business crumble into dust is becoming overwhelming. Having 2 or 3 young men in the office daily crying in anguish is just not something I have ever dealt with before. And all of this strain is not totally the fault of the mandates, but a good chunk of it certainly is. As each day gets closer to January, it is getting worse and worse.

200 years from now, assuming humanity survives, this era is going to be right up there with the Salem Witch trials as an example of mass hysteria. The COVID narrative in this country is rapidly turning into a religion if not already there. It could not be further from the tenets of science.

My deceased father and another life mentor always told me as a young man that the decade that actually brought forth the most prescient movies was the 1970s. Among their favorites and how absolutely correct they have turned out to be were Rollerball and Network. After this weekend’s movie watching with my wife, I would add another to the list – The Donald Sutherland/Leonard Nimoy late 70s Invasion of the Body Snatchers. The 1950s one was good but is a bit campy and dated. The 70s one got me right in the heart. The paranoia captured in that film as the characters realize that something had taken over the minds of their peers is exactly how I have felt for months around the Covid true believers in my own profession. I felt very unsettled at how exactly the movie reflected our reality today.

I was personally told today by a colleague after a Zoom conference that I needed to be very careful. Asking hard questions was going to earn me the side-eye – and perhaps a letter to the Medical Board. When did asking tough questions become evil in American science, medicine or discourse? In the past – when someone asked a tough question, there was debate. It was not unusual for someone to get destroyed in the debate. But it brought out all kinds of thinking points. And everyone learned and science progressed. These “narrative” people do not view these debates as just off bounds anymore – they are now viewed as IMMORAL and possibly ILLEGAL. Anyone who dares question anything is to be destroyed. The end.

How did we get here? As the article points out above, even settled science is now being suppressed if it questions the official narrative.

Another quote I heard this week on a podcast – “Who knew that conspiracy theories were actually spoiler alerts?”

With articles like this admitting the truth of critical and basic medical facts more than a year into a crisis like this, I cannot tell you how unsettled I am.
 

Aumua

Yeah, FJB because it’s Biden’s fault that gas is going up. Just like it was Trump’s doing that caused it to fall to $1.21 or whatever last year. Because of his big focus on energy independence, right? Or did oil and other markets collapse for some other reason… I can’t quite put my finger on it.

Inflation, that’s all Biden’s doing too. Cause of all the money he’s spending! Trump certainly didn’t authorize spending trillions and trillions on his watch, nope.

Propaganda everywhere.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Sorry, those are not the things my Dem patients bring up about Biden.

    Now that they themselves or their family members are facing hardships because they are losing their jobs or businesses, they bring up watching their President firing a huge chunk of Americans with his rictus grin in full display.

    Unfortunately, that is simply not propaganda. That was there for all the world to see.

    There have been smaller incidents like this, Reagan and the air traffic controllers, but nothing of this magnitude.

    No, the Dems are going to own this one. And it is most definitely not propaganda. Anyone who thinks that should spend one day with me instead of listening to Rachel or reading dailykos.

     

temporaryreality: (Default)
I'm putting all of October in one post because the first half of the month had fewer comments than in other two-week periods.

 Cuibono

Vaccination by region:

Coercion works? As exhortation, Biden’s speech had no impact at all.

IM Doc

A quick question about the vaccination graph above?

Does that graph represent total doses given or is it actually reflective of the hesitant unvaccinated being vaccinated?

The way I am reading it – it appears that it is total doses given.

Accordingly, I would not be betting so hard that the mandates/coercion are working to a great degree – the spikes may represent nothing more than large numbers of people getting their boosters. I wish there was a way to tell the difference.

In my neck of the woods – we have had large crowds showing up at the recently opened booster stations – and also large numbers of younger people walking off their jobs mandating vaccines and immediately being hired at places where they are not being mandated. In my community – we are now watching many of these companies mandating vaccinations begin to flail badly. It appears to me that outlets of the multi-national corporations are really having staffing problems in a big way – while the local small businesses with no mandates are having a much better time with their staff. Multiple fast food places are now open only 3-4 days a week for instance. I have no problem with this – it is has been the exact opposite for most of the last year. My family and I avoid multinational corporation retail and restaurants like the plague anyway.

Again – I am not sure what the vaccination graph is actually telling us — boosters or deplorables?

 
  1. Lambert Strether

    > Accordingly, I would not be betting so hard that the mandates/coercion are working to a great degree – the spikes may represent nothing more than large numbers of people getting their boosters. I wish there was a way to tell the difference.

    It is total doses. I’m not sure we have the data to distinguish deplorables from boosters, so good point. I will say there hasn’t been a whole lot of messaging on boosters, and on the company mandates we have a lot of anecdotes.

    Adding, I did put a question mark after “coercion works”. And you can be sure that’s how the powers that be will spin it, as in the FT’s editorial on “enlightened docility” yesterday.

     

“Covid-19 booster shots have outpaced the US rate of new vaccinations. And the millions still unvaccinated could trigger ‘future waves,’ expert warns” [CNN]. “[W]ith the number of Americans getting booster shots surpassing those who are initiating vaccination, experts warn more is needed to continue the progress…. An average of 384,963 booster vaccine doses are being given daily, while roughly 281,303 people are getting their first dose every day and about 292,927 people are becoming fully vaccinated each day, according to Wednesday’s CDC data.” • So IM Doc was, unsurprisingly, correct to draw attention to how mixed this data is. I looked at the CDC page with this data, and there’s no time element which is what I want. Perhaps I can use this tool, which allows different visualizations to be created. I wish there were a FRED for Covid data…

56.1% of the US is fully vaccinated (mediocre by world standards, being just below Czech Republic, and just above Saudi Arabia). We are back to the stately 0.1% rise per day. I would bet that the stately rise = word of mouth from actual cases. However, as readers point out, every day those vaccinated become less protected, especially the earliest. So we are trying to outrun the virus… (I have also not said, because it’s too obvious, that if by Bubba we mean The South, then Bubba has done pretty well.)

White House on vaccine requirements generally:

 

 

RE: Patient, Donor Denied Kidney Transplant Surgery Over Being Unvaccinated CBS. Good precedent. I assume this is but the first item on a developing checklist of what other conditions people can be denied care for, thereby strengthening the reach of Rule #2. Say, goutPerforated septum?

IM Doc

I will add a couple of things –

I am horrified by this decision. It is not surprising however. The entire transplant realm in medicine is manned by some of the worst of the narcissist jerks. In brief, it is not that they do not know how to use a moral compass, they do not even have one.

As a medical ethics professor for decades and one who has taken care of countless recipients of kidney transplants, the moral reasoning is just simply hogwash. Their main line of reasoning in this case is that she is going to be on immunocompromising meds, which are dangerous, and obviously she does not have the ability to “follow directions” in something simple like a vaccine. Furthermore, the meds may put her at risk for COVID ( although there are plenty of folks I know who are quite certain that the dreaded COVID storm may be mitigated by many of these transplant meds).

The entire framework of their whole argument will fall to the ground with a simple trip to a renal transplant ward in any academic center. I would say more than 2/3 of the patients are morbidly obese diabetics whose years of self-abuse have led to the transplant in the first place. It has also been my experience that the abuse continues on after the transplant with even more Cheetos and Ding Dongs. What I am trying to say is these transplant patients for the most part, have destroyed their own bodies BY THEIR OWN DECISIONS IN LIFE. And they have no regard going forward that they are destroying their new kidneys. But yet somehow things are different for a patient balking on a COVID vaccine? And the decisions made by these diabetics are not just as pertient?

This whole framework is unsustainable. I get headaches trying to follow the pretzel-reasoning these people are putting my profession through. Again – as I have said many times before – this is not going to end well for medicine.





antidlc

I would say more than 2/3 of the patients are morbidly obese diabetics whose years of self-abuse have led to the transplant in the first place. It has also been my experience that the abuse continues on after the transplant with even more Cheetos and Ding Dongs. What I am trying to say is these transplant patients for the most part, have destroyed their own bodies BY THEIR OWN DECISIONS IN LIFE. And they have no regard going forward that they are destroying their new kidneys.

How many of them eat unhealthy foods because they are depressed?

 
  1. IM Doc

    I admit that came out much harsher than I had intended.

    After reflection – I would add – that not only are these diabetic patients suffering from their own decisions – they are also suffering from the bad decisions of years of Big Ag that have destroyed these people with high fructose corn syrup and the like – while medicine and public health have turned their cheeks the other way.

Raymond Sim

“I admit that came out much harsher than I had intended.”

Lol, I hear that happens to people sometimes.

But it was informative for me. My first thought was “Omg, don’t let the neolibs know, they’ll cut everybody off.” But of course that would depend on who profits. Is treating renal failure lucrative for big healthcare?

 
  1. IM Doc

    The top 2 “profit centers” in medicine are cardiology and oncology.
    Renal disease/dialysis is #3 closely followed by GI at $4 (those colonoscopies are not cheap after all).

    Most people do not realize that by federal law the instant someone is on chronic maintenance dialysis they are covered by Medicare. The insurance companies have nothing to do with chronic dialysis. At about 1500 dollars a pop multiplied by tens or hundreds of thousands across the country daily – and you get the picture really quick.

RE one of these links (I'm not sure which):

Employment Situation: “United States Non Farm Payrolls” [Trading Economics]. “The US economy added a meager 194K jobs in September, of 2021, the lowest so far this year and well below forecasts of 500K. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (74K), professional and business services (60K), retail trade (56K), and transportation and warehousing (47K). Meanwhile, employment declined sharply in public education (-161K) and in health care (-18K).” • Interesting that “essential workers” in health care and education would leave the workforce. I wonder why? Some angst over this one:’

 

 

 

 

Weisenthal comments:

The number is out and it’s another big miss. Just 194,000 jobs created in the month, less than the 500,000 consensus estimate.

However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Combined, these two numbers tell a story of slow hiring and seemingly tight labor markets at the same time.

Despite persistent frustration among employers that the labor market is “tight” (from their perspective), we’re still millions of jobs in the hole relative to where we likely would have been at this point in the absence of the pandemic.

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The US unemployment rate dropped to 4.8 percent in September 2021, from 5.2 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 5.1 percent. It was the lowest rate since March 2020, as many people left the labor force and the negative effects of Hurricane Ida and the Delta variant’s summer spike started to fade. Still, the jobless rate remained well above the pre-crisis level of about 3.5 percent due to ongoing labor shortages but is seen declining further in the coming months as companies fill widespread vacancies and as more workers are expected to go back into the labor force.” • “Are expected” lacks agency…

IM Doc

About the labor statistics numbers and the big miss from today.

I am a physician – I am not an accountant nor am I an economist – so I have no special expertise in sussing out these numbers.

However, I feel that I have enough background to comment on my own little world of health care.

I wonder how much the ongoing retirement of the boomers is playing a role here?

The first big picture – if you go back through all these numbers since JAN of 2020 when the pandemic was in utero – this country’s loss of jobs in the health care sector for that whole time is now approaching half a million. Those of us who work in the hospitals and clinics are very acutely aware of this situation, believe me. Let me get this straight, DURING A WORLD WIDE PANDEMIC WHICH HAS NOW KILLED 700K AMERICANS, OUR HEALTH CARE SECTOR HAS LET GO OF HALF A MILLION JOBS? And if one looks at the more granular data – the vast majority of these jobs have been front line nurses, CNAs, and nursing home workers and the like – NOT THE ADMINISTRATORS……

Is there something I am missing here? I just find that whole situation appalling. And now when the screws are really tight we have just no more capacity to lose more. And that is the time our dear leaders have decided to play the mandate card.

Which brings me to the apparent 18000 health care jobs that were lost in SEP 2021 alone. Again – looking at the details – these are front line health care workers for the most part. And I know from personal experience and the scuttlebutt from many others that this is absolutely related to the pending vaccine mandates. This is only going to get worse. Many of our facilities across the country are already in dire straits. And this number was actually quite shocking today.

And yet – you have Nicole Wallace and others during the Biden speech coverage yesterday stating that the mandates are working spectacularly – that all is perfect and going according to plan. Americans are showing the courage not to leave their jobs and keep supporting the family.

Hmmmmm.

I feel obligated to put forth a PSA. In my area, there is a large nursing home run by the hospital and led by MDs and RNs. There is another closeby run by a multi-national corporation and run by MBAs. The MBA nursing home got the edict from HQ that all employees must be vaccinated by OCT 1 – and promptly lost 18 front line staff in one week. The hospital nursing home run by MDs told their employees not to worry right now – no one would be fired until this had all played out in the courts. All these fired CNAs et al easily found jobs in the community. They are not suffering. Who is suffering? The little old people in that nursing home and their families – it has quickly turned into a complete disaster.

LISTEN WELL – IF YOU HAVE FAMILY MEMBERS IN A NURSING HOME SITUATION or PLANNING TO PUT THEM THERE RIGHT NOW – YOU NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT HOW THE PLACE IS STAFFED. I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH. MANY OF THESE PLACES WHICH WERE ALREADY VERY DYSFUNCTIONAL ARE TURNING INTO DISASTER AREAS ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. I DO NOT CARE WHAT NICOLE WALLACE HAS TO SAY ABOUT IT – IT IS A PATIENT SAFETY ISSUE AT THIS POINT. YOU NEED TO BE KEEPING AN EAGLE EYE ON YOUR LOVED ONES.

I am not sure I have ever seen such a bigger own-goal by national politicians as what this one is turning out to be. And that is just the health care aspect of it. All the crap talk by the talking heads exhorting the wondrous decision is not going to change the actual events on the ground. Nursing homes and lots of hospitals are headed for big trouble.


  1. IM Doc

    I always like to point out that the very phrase –

    AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE –

    Is an absolute slap in the face to anyone with 2 firing neurons and a moral compass. Not even Orwellian. And the neoliberal corporatists like Pelosi and Romney throw that name around as if it is a good and moral thing.

IM Doc

About the National Guard being called into various states to man the rehab and nursing homes, urgent care centers and hospitals…..This is even happening right now in my own area.

This is having to be done for 2 main reasons. The employees in the medical realm are just simply exhausted and depressed and are leaving for that reason. And also in many places, those who are left are being fired as part of a vaccine mandate.

FUN FACT – Did you know that a good number if not most of the National Guard troops being called out to fill these positions are actually UNVACCINATED? Oh yes – it is true. I thought it was just my area – but after a few phone calls to colleagues, this is happening elsewhere.

So we are firing people for being unvaccinated – and then turning right around and replacing them with the unvaccinated……to try to alleviate the emergency caused by the initial firing?

Makes sense? right?

Can someone explain to me how this has a God damned thing to do with public health?
 

Lambert Strether

To be fair, the military is one of the few institutions that continues to function (granted, not in a war-winning way, but at least they can still do logistics). Function in some other way than extracting rents from the helpless or deceived, that is.

Another one of these few institutions is the intelligence community (granted, not insofar as collecting intelligence against foreign enemies is concerned, but in terms of domestic politics, I’d say it’s doing pretty well.

Leading me to suggest that when we need to take the National Guard off nursing home duty, we could send in the spooks.

 
  1. IM Doc

    The problem with this situation we are facing now is the National Guard is trained to take care of guarding the nation. The spooks are trained to be spooks. Neither skill set is going to translate into a nursing home of 90 year old demented patients.

    Hilariously, one of them has had to take frequent breaks to vomit. Nursing homes have a certain odor especially in the rooms. It can at times be overwhelming. During my intern year there was a quote told to all the interns – “Breathe deep the aroma of life – let life’s beautiful smells inhabit every cell in your nostrils. But when you are at the VA – just breathe through your mouth”. Believe it or not – even that simple thing is a learned skill.

    The new employees have absolutely no idea for the most part how to correctly take care of patients – especially nursing home patients. The medics among them have some clue – but watching “weekend warrior” used care salesman transporting patients safely much less changing diapers, taking care of catheters correctly or even turning people in bed correctly has been harrowing to say the least. The safety in many of these tasks is certainly not intuitive.

    Again – this is not about public health. We have replaced unvaccinated employees who knew what they were doing and had been trained with unvaccinated “volunteers” who for the most part have not a clue what they are doing. My educated estimation is this is not going to go well for public or patient safety.

IM Doc

Some of my fondest memories as a child were to sit with my father and watch the original series of Star Trek.

After viewing the new Star Trek offerings in the past few years, regrettably, I would never dream for a second of having a child sitting and watching anything having to do with Star Trek at this point. Mr. Roddenberry, who I heard speak at conventions multiple times, repeatedly stated that he was so proud of what his show had meant to America’s Children. Indeed, he must be rolling in his grave right now. I recently read that immediately before his death, he was begging on his knees for the producers to never make Deep Space Nine. Amazing, DS9 is like Captain Kangaroo to some of the fare being offered today – full of F-bombs, gore, extreme violence and angst. What I think would offend him the most is the very very dark overall atmosphere. They even managed to ruin the character of Picard for me forever. There have been episodes where unlike the optimism of Mr. Roddenberry – I just wanted to go blow my head off. At least we still have the DVDs of the old stuff which I am happily watching with my kids right now.

I would also add the the character of Dr. McCoy is one of the big reasons I am a physician.

I was at a conference recently of young physicians about COVID. One of the presentations was actually about Star Trek – and how the philosophy of that show would make it mandatory for any fans to applaud the current “science” and laud any and all efforts that Dr. Fauci was doing for viral research and how so many folks in the Pharma industry were big Star Trek fans. What a wonderful thing that Mr. Roddenberry had invented to instill a love for “science” in so many people. “Science” of course being defined in its current iteration under Pope Fauci.

It fell to me to inform this young man that he had not a clue what he was talking about. During Mr. Roddenberry’s production of the show, there were countless examples of “science” gone wrong at the hands of those who would warp it.

Indeed, just within the first 10 shows of the first season, I can find 5 examples of this extreme concern for what “science” is capable of in the wrong hands.

The most apropos for today – Season 1 Episode 8 – Miri – where the Enterprise crew finds a planet where the scientists had been doing what we would call “gain of function” research and released a virus into the populace that destroyed that world, leaving only the kids behind. It is stuffed with quotes from Dr. McCoy that I would just love to hurl at the Dr Faucis and Dr Wens of our world today.

TV shows like Star Trek-TOS and The Twilight Zone and The Outer Limits and much of the written science fiction of that era are both very dated AND simultaneously more profoundly relevant than ever. A dead giveaway that someone is hitting the nail on the head.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Kirk – You will need to isolate that virus – we need to develop a vaccine.

    McCoy – Is that all Captain? We do have 5 days.

    ________________________

    McCoy – “It did not work out quite as they had planned.”
    A general comment on the whole viral project on this planet – they were trying to genetically engineer an immortality virus.
    __________________________

    Kirk putting pressure on McCoy to develop a vaccine.

    Kirk – Work faster doctor….
    McCoy throws the papers on the desk – “Maybe you would like to take a crack at it…”

    _______________________________

    I think the most important of all is the increasing fear and panic experienced by the members of the crew as the disease got worse and worse. The landing party became infected the instant they beamed onto the planet. The increasing signs of infection were highlighted as the episode evolves – and the fear and panic are masterfully played by the actors.

    _____________________

    Spock and McCoy discussing the vaccine ——

    McCoy – The question is what is the correct dose?
    Spock – That is a very good question……It could be a beaker full of death….

    ____________________

    Spock – The vaccine may be fatal
    McCoy – The disease most certainly is…How long do you want to wait?….
    And then McCoy picks up the syringe and plunges it into himself – valiantly making himself the guinea pig……

    ______________________

    It is amazing how well they did with the social mechanics of pandemics and what happens to the collective psyche – and all in just a 50 minute show. I showed this episode and the one that immediately followed – “Dagger of the Mind” – in the Medical Ethics and History Class. Miri was informative about how people react in the setting of a rapidly progressing epidemic – and “Dagger” was a very thorough piece about involuntary commitment in the psych setting and mad doctor experimentation with unproven technology.

The Rev Kev

“Aspirin lowers risk of COVID: New findings support preliminary Israeli trial”

CNN Newsflash – ‘An unsubstantiated and unreliable Israeli study recommends people take medicine given to dogs to cure Covid. Scientists from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have criticized this unproven approach and have stated that this is a dangerous practice made worse by the fact that typically people ingested this animal product with dihydrogen monoxide when taking it.’

 
  1. Helena

    Am I being overly paranoid to wonder why it is suddenly dangerous for people to take low-dose aspirin? After it was found to help with COVID?
    I take aspirin daily, it’s the only remedy I can tolerate for my spasticity and arthritis, and works very well. I have been doing this for years. without any problems. It seems like a bonus to find out it has COVID benefits. We are living in dubious times, IMO.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      IM Doc and his colleagues were super duper pissed about these stories. Hoisted from e-mail:

      This is very confusing – and really inappropriate to be putting this in a national newspaper.

      There are so many heart patients out there and their daily ASA is what is keeping their arteries open.

      There are indeed patients who should not be taking ASA – mainly those who have very malignant hypertension. In that setting it can precipitate brain bleeding. But their internist should be paying close attention to these details. ASA is no more likely to cause GI bleeding than any other NSAID – and has a much lower incidence of renal disease.

      I was informed today that our cardiologist office has been bombed with phone calls about this article – and the accompanying piece on CNN.

      This is yet another example of very very dangerous behavior on the part of the news media. They should not be breathlessly reporting these kinds of singleton research findings and they never ever discuss anything in context.

IM Doc

About inflation……..

I was raised in a very large extended family on an ancestral family farm.

As a kid, I listened to my grandparents and uncles tell stories of what it was like in the Great Depression. As I got older, my grandfather would pound into my head multiple things that happened to him as a young man that were harbingers of the bad times to come. That was deflation. As a child myself, my family lived through the oil shock and the stagflation of the 1970s. I think all of us over 50 have living experience with this type of thing.

I will tell everyone here – my red alert signals planted by my elders deep in my brain have been going off full blast this entire year.

I am unable to procure a windshield for my late model van. At any price. There are just none available.

My neighbor’s Ford truck has been disabled since August and unusable because a small part is needed to fix it and is unavailable.

There are multiple buildings all around in various stages of building that have just been abandoned for want of supplies or supplies that are now all of a sudden prohibitively expensive. Some have clearly been left to rot.

We have kids in my kids’ school whose parents were already marginal financially whose children now just have no lunches to eat at these prices in the grocery store. And the school lunches have turned into a horrifying joke. My wife and multiple other parents are making extra for these kids every day.

We have in our part of the country seen the cost of basic staples explode in price just in the past month – sometimes at a very scary rate.

We are seeing large swaths of the local stores empty of many things. Large empty rows of things like canned vegetables, frozen vegetables, and just forget about large groups of various pre-processed foods ( our family does not eat this type of thing anyway). The sections with sodas ( yet another thing we do not use) are just empty most of the time except for the Coca Cola products which it seems everyone around my place are boycotting.

And many essentials are non-existent, for example Kerr and Ball canning products.

And like no time in my career, we in the office are having to juggle all kinds of medications and prescriptions. Many pharmaceuticals are just simply not available. Especially all the various types of long-acting insulin (Tresiba and Tuojeo are the worst), rheumatology drugs (Enbrel and Humira), asthma inhalers and many types of antibiotics.

I am somewhat comforted that my wife and I saw the writing on the wall several years ago and moved to the vast expanse of rural America. We have just procured half a cow from our neighbor for example and have on our property chickens galore and abundant eggs every day. Just like my grandparents taught me to do – we have been canning and preparing all summer. Large containers of flour and sugar are stored and ready. We are about as prepared as anyone in our family.

Yet – I never dreamed I would hear an American administration just so glibly blow off the entire situation – Psaki – “Everything is great – people are just buying a lot of stuff” and “Get over it, maybe no treadmill this year”. I just cannot believe what I am hearing. I know from talking to my patients that there are already lots of people already suffering – and this tripe is what is coming out of Washington? First we were blessed with the visage of an American president smiling with glee announcing that many millions of Americans were about to be fired – and now this? I truly no longer recognize my country. I have serious reservations that any of our leaders in either party have a clue or the will to do anything about this impeding situation.


The Rev Kev

“In Major Shift, NIH Admits Funding Risky Virus Research in Wuhan”

The National Institutes of Health & Fauci are like one of those rocks that you pry up and all sort of creepy crawlies start to scuttle their way out of the daylight. This knowledge of the NIH funding risky research in a foreign country like China is already know. But today I read about another project conducted by the NIH that was investigated by the same people that revealed the Wuhan connection and House members were shocked to discover this other research funded by them.

In this case, “Our investigators show that Fauci’s NIH division shipped part of a $375,800 grant to a lab in Tunisia to drug beagles and lock their heads in mesh cages filled with hungry sand flies so that the insects could eat them alive.” It gets better. “Some of the dogs had their vocal cords removed so scientists could work without incessant barking.” So an experiment that probably could not be conducted in the US without bringing down the wrath of all sorts of rights groups was outsourced to another country so that it would be out of sight and the NIH & Fauci would get to keep their hands clean. Link below with picture of experiment. Sometimes profanity is not enough-

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/578086-bipartisan-legislators-demand-answers-from-fauci

 
  1. Screwball

    Funny, nothing of this story on the CNN website when I looked a little bit ago. Curious if it made the Sunday morning shows as well since I won’t watch them, maybe someone did. I expect this to get the same treatment that so many other stories get they don’t want to talk about – nothing to see here, move along.

     
  2. chris

    That’s atrocious. I have no idea why an IRB or ethics review would have allowed that kind of thing even if it was proposed to be done in another jurisdiction.

    And yeah, I expect that kind of story to continually be in the news for middle America and absent on the coasts. If you really want to take Biden down, hamstring him by pointing out he’s surrounded by horrible people, and then force voters and viewers to see him handle stuff by himself. With someone like Fauci, he really doesn’t have an option to distance his administration from him. So making Fauci look bad is an easy way to attack the president.

     
    1. IM Doc

      From an IRB chairman for more than a decade –

      In general – IRB ( institutional review boards ) are only applicable to research involving HUMAN subjects. In any research, there are usually multiple animal trials early on that are not under the guidance of the IRB. Once the research makes it to patients and humans, the animal research is certainly applicable and ALL OF IT is made known to the IRB in every detail they demand.

      This type of gain-of-function research to my knowledge was never intended to be used for patient care. This was being done for viral research in a broad population manner – as in to see what we can create to kill the most humans – or what can we create that our side can vaccinate quickly, or let’s see what the enemies are doing, or let’s prepare for pandemics with this XYZ virus. Gain of function research on viruses in general is not really applicable to health or alleviating disease. I suppose a case could be made for mutating viruses for cancer therapy or somesuch but that does not appear to be what they seem to be mainly doing. As you can see, this type of thing is clearly not in the purview of a local IRB. It is also fraught with moral problems as evidenced by the actions of recent Congresses and the Obama Administration.

      It absolutely SHOULD be under the purview of the Ethics Committee at the NIH or the NIAID or whatever government agency funded the research. Obviously, it would be somewhat difficult to take to the NIH Ethics Board that which has been explicitly forbidden by Presidents and Congress alike. Of course, one has only to look at who exactly is the head of the Ethics Department at the NIH to realize that we have an enormous conflict of interest. One that I have yet to hear a peep this entire 2 years from ANY mainstream media source.

      Whether or not COVID-19 came from a lab or not, there is now available such overwhelming and incontrivertible documentation that Fauci, et al, seemed to be involved in things that were directly opposed to guidance provided from both the Executive and Legislative branches of our government that a full investigation is warranted and must be done. In Congress. In front of everyone. Look at what this virus has done. Given the toll that any novel virus could promulgate on our planet, especially one genetically altered to maximize damage, to not investigate this at this point would be a crime against humanity. Put COVID aside. It is still unclear whether COVID was a lab leak or not. But just imagine the menagerie of beasties that could be out there somewhere ready to escape.

      It is my considered opinion that we will get nowhere as a country with this pandemic until we have medical leadership that can be trusted by all Americans. With all of this going on with EcoHealth and the NIH, it is very clear to me that whatever happened, Dr. Fauci needs to be fired right now. And then a full investigation into this mess needs to be immediately convened in the US Congress.

RE: Business groups ask Biden to delay vaccine mandate until after the holidays Becker’s Hospital Review, a longer thread that I didn't want to take the time to sort out (sorry, skip whatever you feel inclined to skip) :D :


IM Doc

One has only to read the article above in the links regarding big business trying to postpone the mandates until after Christmas to realize this has nothing to do with the truth.

All the happy horse shit talk about how well the vaccine mandates are going is just that – happy horse shit. Where I am, we are seeing local outlets of the big corporations dying on the vine. It has everything to do with the mandates – I talk to these people daily. There are some local owners telling their national corporations to rot in hell.

We are firing Americans but allowing all kinds of illegals in without even testing them.

Why has the administration not had a formal filing of these mandates? Because the instant they do file, there will be lawsuits flying and the administration knows it does not have a chance.

This has nothing to do with truth, science, or public health. I simply cannot understand their purpose.
 

  1. Carolinian

    What you said.

    And I think the purpose is to try to “solve” Covid so that business as usual can resume. But Biden is surrounded by people who have drunk the Kool Aid on the vaccines and he himself, judging from a townhall, doesn’t even seem to know that the vaxxed can both get the disease and transmit it. To me the whole notion that this wouldn’t be a political disaster, at least, is baffling. It has to be because he and his advisers are in a bubble.

     
    1. Katniss Everdeen

      I suspect covid will not be “solved” until 12/31/21 when the cdc

      ….. withdraw[s] the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) [!!!] of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.

      The bad news is that the flu will be making a comeback.

      “CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season….

      I am being only marginally sarcastic.

      https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

       
    2. Mikel

      I’m beginning ti wonder how much of it is a mindset aling the lines of “just following orders.”

      It’s like they developed a plan with half-baked research and data that pointed them to a return to “the normal” and it’s imagined previous glory and, despite any evidence to the contrary, they will now just gaslight the public with authoritarian wishful thinking.

       
    3. Lambert Strether

      > It has to be because he and his advisers are in a bubble.

      To be fair to Biden, where exactly would he go for good information? We had CDC and WHO refusing to accept the correct theory of transmission for (it feels like, anyhow) a solid year. And they still resist it bureaucratically. The infection control community in hospitals resists aerosol transmission ferociously.

      Bubbles tend to be pretty thick-walled and they pop only when the class of people inside them are deposed. Think of LBJ and Vietnam…. The Romanovs…

       
  2. Regulus regulus

    Where does one “file” Executive Orders? The order was executed and published on Sept 9, extending EO 13991. The order gives authority to the Agencies to provide guidance on how best to comply with EO 13991.

    The foreign services have required certain vaccines for a long time. One is not free to die of malaria on Congress’s dime. The Court is not likely to injunct other Federal Employees from getting the vaccine. Public safety and communicable disease control is the least controversial power the States share with Federal Agencies.

     
    1. Carolinian

      I believe he means the OSHA vax rule which has not yet been published.

      And comparing the still experimental Covid vax (still applies to leftover vials as FDA approved the named commercial Pfizer version*) to sterilizing childhood vaccines or other vaccines with decades of successful use is a false analogy. But since it will come down to courts to decide then surely the mandate should be on hold until they do. Biden isn’t a king who gets to make drastic social rules with the wave of a hand.

      *Apparently this being claimed by some of the legal challenges already filed.

       
    2. IM Doc

      Can you please show me where OSHA has actually made any kind of ruling in this matter? If not, why not? – this has now been going on for weeks. The entity for whom I personally work has vociferously stated that no action on the mandates will be taken until OSHA has spoken. And then, trust me, the tsunami of lawsuits wiil begin. There are all kinds of companies across this country telegraphing a similar message. There are consequences for leaders when they make orders like this and put them on the backs of agencies that have no business whatsoever involved in the situation.

      Additionally – we are not talking about malaria – nor are we talking about the foreign service. We are talking about millions of Americans whose president just announced before a CNN audience that he would happily have them fired – all to a rousing applause. Again – I am not speaking to a whole lot of patients or friends who find this type of thing even remotely appropriate. I for instance am a life long liberal. I will be voting a straight Republican ticket from now on until the enema that the Dems need has occurred. Looking at polls, it is quite clear I am not alone. I would rather live with the knowns of what the GOP has to offer rather than these duplicitous fools. I can show you all kinds of videos from politicos – from Biden to Pelosi to Fauci to Schumer just in the fall of last year stating that vaccine mandates have no way to work and no way to be enforced. They were very correct then. They are liars now.

      FYI – public health is not something that was just invented. It has been through centuries of trials and testing. One of its cardinal rules is that COERCION never works – and we are about to relearn that lesson right now in a big way.

      Talking about vaccinating the military and the foreign service is NOT THE GENERAL PUBLIC – nor does it have a thing to do with PUBLIC health.

      I deal with the vaccine hesitant daily. The simple underlying issue that is going on with most of them – is they have zero trust in our federal health officials. ZERO. Just look at the NIH statement about gain of function research put out this week – and compare that to the Fauci testimony of May and July. If he is lying about that – what else is he lying about?

       
        1. Lambert Strether

          Yes, it is. I linked to it several weeks ago, and it got no traction at all. But vile though Fauci’s Noble Lie was, it’s important to depersonalize the issue, and to see that his lies are an issue with the so-called public health establishment generally.

IM Doc

I feel like I need to give an update from my world. Many things are happening all at the same time.

In brief, I feel that the “troubles” have started in earnest now in medicine in ways I did not see coming just weeks ago. What we in medicine are simply not going to be able to abide right now is a surge like we saw last winter.

First of all, as a PCP, I have always had the ability to zap small non-invasive skin cancers. We do that with liquid nitrogen. We have been out of this for a week or so now. Sourcing a new supply is now virtually impossible. And the amounts being asked for what is left are so astronomically high that we simply cannot afford it. Medicare reimbursement (which is most of these patients) will not even come close to recovering the cost. I understand from the supplier that the same issues are occurring to some degree with dry ice and more ominously liquid oxygen (used in hospitals of patient oxygen). I heard from 2 different suppliers the reason why this seems to be happening – but the reason is so “tin foil” that I am not going to repeat it here until I can confirm this more reliably.

I know there are lots of biomedical folks here in labs that are frequent commenters….Are any of you having the same problems?

If this becomes a pattern, I would recommend to all to get your derm visit scheduled ASAP – my understanding is this will not be temporary.

Our hospital staff is so diminished that my clinic employees are constantly being pulled to cover issues there. Outpatient clinical medicine is no longer organized here – it has become a frantic triage. Right now, I would urge all Americans to not take their anger and temper out on medical office employees. They and their physicians are absolutely overwhelmed.

That problem however is minor. The hospital system pre-COVID was a disaster area – it is now officially a shit show. The discharge process is now turned into a complete cludge. The problem in brief is that the companies that do home health and home oxygen and nursing home care have had their staffs now vanish to unworkable levels. Much of this has to do with exhaustion. But it is also the vaccine mandates. These are all national corporations – so they instituted mandates weeks ago. And promptly lost large segments of their staff. Enough time has now passed for the remaining employees to experience complete exhaustion. You can only do so many 80 hour work weeks after all. So now – there is nowhere for these discharging patients to go that is safe. They are having to stay in the hospital – but that is simply not going to be workable for long. The hospital too has had its staff decimated.

I have sat through a whole 4 months or so of patients condescendingly tell me they would never allow an unvaccinated HCW to touch them. Over and over. My constant refrain was to be very careful about that feeling – you may have NO health care workers to touch you if you keep that up. And we are slowly but surely arriving at that destination. At least two of these patients stuck in the hospital are two who could not bash the intransigent HCWs enough. They have now received their wish. Payment in full.

My niece just graduated from nursing school in June. Immediately hired on a COVID unit in a major hospital in one of our big cities. She has been there three months as dozens and dozens of nurses, MAs and RTs have left. My mind was completely and totally blown when she called to ask my advice last night – THEY HAD JUST OFFERED HER THE JOB OF FLOOR CHARGE NURSE in her hospital – a 3 month nurse – a job that in other times was given to grizzled veterans.

I am not sure we are going to have to wait for judicial input into these vaccine mandates. The slow motion implosion has already begun at least in medicine. I am hearing the same stories if not worse from colleagues everywhere.

I am not trying to alarm or scare. I am presenting my world as it is. I do not believe most Americans understand how dire this situation really is.


IM Doc

When I get angry or alarmed, I come here to write it all out – it makes me feel better to just know that I have some kind of outlet. I appreciate that greatly about this site. I think this is important today.

I have a feeling we are in for far more serious “troubles” in the medical realm than just nurses in the hospital quitting. Pharma issues are happening – and may reach out and touch any one of you or your family. To be warned is to be prepared.

A very pernicious problem with pharma shortages has begun to set in. For the most part, they seem to be temporary – but they are absolutely devastating to patients financially – and I want all to understand what is going on.

This mainly seems to be happening in insulin products, immunologic agents ( as in Enbrel and Humira) and chemotherapy ( of which I personally deal very infrequently).

I am now up to 11 patients where this has happened just this week alone. All of whom are under 30, diabetic and on insulin or with lupus and on immunomodulating drugs. All are taking their health very seriously.

Most modern pharmaceuticals are distributed with the use of PBMs. big gigantic companies that are middlemen between pharma and consumers. They all have contracts with each product where they get a very good price on 1 particular agent in each class. For example – XYZ PBM has a great price on Lantus Insulin – so they will only distribute Lantus to their patients. If you must have the others – well – you get to pay the 700 dollars a month out of pocket – uncovered by your insurance. It is really quite a racket if some poor soul cannot tolerate the selected drug.

We are now experiencing fairly severe shortages on insulin products and immunoproducts. Again – they seem to be temporary – but 10 days is life or death to a Type I DM. So when their refill comes up – and their particular PBM contracted insulin type is unavailable – they get to pay full freight on another in the class – often 500-700 dollars a month. The PBMs are absolutely heartless – will not budge an inch – knowing in full that the shortage is beyond the patient’s control – and also that they are completely dependent. So the patients pay the 500 dollars for an alternative – only to find out that 7 days later – their “covered” insulin is available again. But it may not be when it comes time for a refill. And because their “great” insurance (It’s a big f@#ckin’ deal! – remember that?) that Obamacare delivered to the land has often 10 or 15 thousand dollar deductibles – they get to pay the full amount.

I have no idea why these shortages are happening. It is however constant. Again – not just insulin – the arthritis drugs are a real problem as well. My office staff is spending large chunks of time on this. Nothing like this has happened before in my career. This is new territory.

500-700 dollars is a lot of cash for these young people – and they are struggling under the load. I have not experienced young fathers crying in my office like I have this week. Again, the “troubles” have just begun.

We have here a pharmacy from a national corporation and also a local owned and operated pharmacy. The national chain basically tells the kids to pound sand. The local owned outfit, whose owner is in multiple civic organizations is giving them their alternative at his cost – and indeed I think he is giving it to them at his own expense as well. This fact is not going unnoticed in the community at large – and who do you think the goodwill is being bestowed upon? And who is getting the evil eye? I do not find it strange that we are suddenly seeing many prescription requests transferred to the local guy.

Furthermore, these young under 30s, black white and Hispanic – historically in the Dems back pocket – are now repeatedly discussing their politics with me. Unsolicited. I hear “FJB” all day long now. I am very sad to report that the coddling of Big Pharma, the year of one lie after another from our medical leadership, the disaster that Obamacare actually is on the ground, the promise to “follow the science” and then clearly act more political than anything before, and the raping that our populace is getting from these PBMs is absolutely causing a sea change in where I have normally seen young people politically. Again many minorities as well. They are very angry. Right or wrong, they perceive the Dems and people like Biden and Pelosi as directly responsible. And I live in a mostly blue area. And I do not blame them for a minute. One man explained to me very kindly that he had to be discharged from his federal job because of the vaccine mandate – and reported to me with great contempt that Biden had him fired – but was going to hand out half a million dollars to all kinds of illegal immigrants. “I voted for Obama twice, Clinton and Biden – but they can suck it if they think I am voting for them again.” I simply do not engage politics in my office. If they bring it up, I listen. Clearly, the kids are indeed beginning to realize what is at stake in their future. As a life-long Dem, I am very concerned that we may be seeing another Whig implosion. The thing that bothers me is I do not see any evidence whatsoever that anyone in the Dem leadership even cares. They have anchored themselves to some very troubling things that really affect people in their daily lives – and the bill is coming due. Again – I am seeing enough tragic things being ignored and lied about that for the first time in my life, I will be voting a straight GOP ticket until the bad apples are rooted out. I do not think in my life I have ever seen a group of politicians that need some time in the wilderness more urgently.


petal

IM Doc, my friends with the core facility that has multiple freezers heard from the hospital’s procurement folks who had tracked down the airgas manager. “He said there is no shortage of product(LN2) but a shortage of drivers for bulk tank deliveries.”
The procurement folks thanked my friends for bringing it to their attention and said they will keep an eye on the situation. I hope I don’t look too much like an idiot/boy that cried wolf.

 
  1. IM Doc

    We still have not received any – and there is no date when it can be delivered. The “tin foil” issue that I brought up was indeed about trucking – apparently, there are very specific training guidelines for these types of products and very specific trucks and there are just no drivers available. There was more “colorful” commentary but again I cannot confirm at this time.

    I am in a remote area – that is certainly part of the problem. But the fact we are having these troubles with vital supplies even here should be an early warning indicator that we have issues as a society. The system has thrown a rod – and what used to be reliable no longer is. Fascinating times.

    Our supplier is trying very hard to get the now very elevated cost of the transport of these gases passed onto the final user – and there is just no way that is economically feasible in our area. And then another wrinkle at least here is the actual company that puts it in the cans is having trouble getting the equipment and other needs transported to their facility. “We have not had the ability in about a month”. So they do not even have product to send. So we have supply chain problems – and we have delivery chain problems. It seems like everything has a screw loose right now. I do also have multiple patients who are now on emergency oxygen compressors – because the cans of oxygen are no longer available reliably in our area – and I have just not had the time to figure out why that is suddenly happening. The compressor approach is much more expensive and I have no idea how long the insurance companies are going to be willing to pay.

    As far as the skin lesions and the liqiud nitrogen, looks like it is back to the old clip them off and put in a stitch. So much more time consuming that it is hardly done anymore.

    I am seriously not understanding what happened – it is like all the truck drivers just POOF disappeared.

IM Doc on Medication/Medical Supply Shortages and Political Backlash

IM Doc weighed in twice this week in Water Cooler on the dire scarcity of some critical medical products in his area, a rich pocket in flyover. While some of them may be significantly the result of being at a remove from big cities, others seemed to reflect wide-spread outages.

We’ve seen less scary versions of this movie before. A few years ago, the US was suffering widespread shortages of the bags used to deliver IV fluids because the factory in Puerto Rico that was close to the sole producer was knocked out in a hurricane.

IM Doc does not have a clear answer as to why these shortages are so numerous. Domestic trucker shortages may be part of the problem. But the US is extremely dependent on China and India for drugs. 80% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients and and 90% of generics are believed to come from them (no one knows for sure because the US does not believe in having the government know anything). So the famed coastal port traffic jams may be contributing to the problem. The Wall Street Journal pointed out in August 2020 that disruptions in product from China had generated shortages in acetaminophen, antibiotics and high blood pressure medications.

IM Doc weighed in on Wednesday and again yesterday and I though it was worth hoisting them to encourage further discussion as well as circulation to friends and colleagues. I’ve edited both comments to focus on the supply issues; he also discussed staffing shortages at his and other hospitals. As his second comment makes clear, at least in the people he treats, there’s a great deal of anger at the Administration, as in the Democrats, for not even acknowledging these potentially life-threatening and also budget-destroying shortages, even among groups like the young and minorities who would otherwise generally be assumed to favor or at least consider Democrats.

I’m amazed that there hasn’t been a backlash against the Tories for their deliberate destruction of the NHS, which has become more catastrophic thanks to Brexit and Covid. But Labour is so enfeebled that it seems unable to find any way to profit from Tory disasters, plus the Brits are a very stoic bunch.

Even though the first discussion, of difficulties in getting liquid nitrogen, is revealing, the meat comes in IM Doc’s second topic, shortages in multiple categories of critically important medications.

From IM Doc on October 27:

I feel that the “troubles” have started in earnest now in medicine in ways I did not see coming just weeks ago. What we in medicine are simply not going to be able to abide right now is a surge like we saw last winter.

First of all, as a PCP, I have always had the ability to zap small non-invasive skin cancers. We do that with liquid nitrogen. We have been out of this for a week or so now. Sourcing a new supply is now virtually impossible. And the amounts being asked for what is left are so astronomically high that we simply cannot afford it. Medicare reimbursement (which is most of these patients) will not even come close to recovering the cost. I understand from the supplier that the same issues are occurring to some degree with dry ice and more ominously liquid oxygen (used in hospitals of patient oxygen). I heard from 2 different suppliers the reason why this seems to be happening – but the reason is so “tin foil” that I am not going to repeat it here until I can confirm this more reliably.

On October 27 from petal:

I run a research lab at a well-known med school. We have a -140 freezer. It was alarming, which is unusual. We had been given 1 regular tank and 1 half tank instead of the usual 2 regular tanks-1 attached and 1 for backup. Both tanks we had were empty, including the attached half tank even though it was showing half full (or half empty, whichever kind of person you are…). Our Airgas guy comes once a week anywhere from Tuesday-Thursday. I emailed the manager, got an out of office reply(great!). Called the #, got a live guy. He said he’d ring the delivery guy and see if he could swing by with a partial tank because it’s an emergency. He said there’s a nationwide shortage of LN2, and they “are having trouble getting it.” Luckily the guy dropped off the partial. I let my friends in a core facility (they have 2 huge -140s) know about the LN2 shortage and they’re freaking out (as was I). We cannot lose what’s in these, and cells can’t be stored at -80 for long before losing viability.

I did a net search, and a bunch of space industry articles came up(this stuff is needed for rockets). They said due to the spike in covid patients being put on vents, there’s a spike in the need for liquid oxygen for the vents, and that trucks that used to carry LN2 are being converted to carry liquid oxygen because the premium is higher than if they deliver a load of LN2. That’s all I found. So if there’s also a shortage of liquid oxygen, I don’t have any ideas, unless it’s the whole trucker shortage thing. Not a clue.

petal later added:

My friends with the core facility that has multiple freezers heard from the hospital’s procurement folks who had tracked down the Airgas manager. “He said there is no shortage of product(LN2) but a shortage of drivers for bulk tank deliveries.”

IM Doc’s reply:

I am in a remote area – that is certainly part of the problem. But the fact we are having these troubles with vital supplies even here should be an early warning indicator that we have issues as a society. The system has thrown a rod – and what used to be reliable no longer is. Fascinating times.

Our supplier is trying very hard to get the now very elevated cost of the transport of these gases passed onto the final user – and there is just no way that is economically feasible in our area. And then another wrinkle at least here is the actual company that puts it in the cans is having trouble getting the equipment and other needs transported to their facility. “We have not had the ability in about a month”. So they do not even have product to send. So we have supply chain problems – and we have delivery chain problems. It seems like everything has a screw loose right now. I do also have multiple patients who are now on emergency oxygen compressors – because the cans of oxygen are no longer available reliably in our area – and I have just not had the time to figure out why that is suddenly happening. The compressor approach is much more expensive and I have no idea how long the insurance companies are going to be willing to pay.

As far as the skin lesions and the liqiud nitrogen, looks like it is back to the old clip them off and put in a stitch. So much more time consuming that it is hardly done anymore.

I am seriously not understanding what happened – it is like all the truck drivers just POOF

From IM Doc on October 29:

I have a feeling we are in for far more serious “troubles” in the medical realm than just nurses in the hospital quitting. Pharma issues are happening – and may reach out and touch any one of you or your family. To be warned is to be prepared.

A very pernicious problem with pharma shortages has begun to set in. For the most part, they seem to be temporary – but they are absolutely devastating to patients financially – and I want all to understand what is going on.

This mainly seems to be happening in insulin products, immunologic agents ( as in Enbrel and Humira) and chemotherapy ( of which I personally deal very infrequently).

I am now up to 11 patients where this has happened just this week alone. All of whom are under 30, diabetic and on insulin or with lupus and on immunomodulating drugs. All are taking their health very seriously.

Most modern pharmaceuticals are distributed with the use of PBMs. big gigantic companies that are middlemen between pharma and consumers. They all have contracts with each product where they get a very good price on 1 particular agent in each class. For example – XYZ PBM has a great price on Lantus Insulin – so they will only distribute Lantus to their patients. If you must have the others – well – you get to pay the 700 dollars a month out of pocket – uncovered by your insurance. It is really quite a racket if some poor soul cannot tolerate the selected drug.

We are now experiencing fairly severe shortages on insulin products and immunoproducts. Again – they seem to be temporary – but 10 days is life or death to a Type I DM. So when their refill comes up – and their particular PBM contracted insulin type is unavailable – they get to pay full freight on another in the class – often 500-700 dollars a month. The PBMs are absolutely heartless – will not budge an inch – knowing in full that the shortage is beyond the patient’s control – and also that they are completely dependent. So the patients pay the 500 dollars for an alternative – only to find out that 7 days later – their “covered” insulin is available again. But it may not be when it comes time for a refill. And because their “great” insurance (It’s a big f@#ckin’ deal! – remember that?) that Obamacare delivered to the land has often 10 or 15 thousand dollar deductibles – they get to pay the full amount.

I have no idea why these shortages are happening. It is however constant. Again – not just insulin – the arthritis drugs are a real problem as well. My office staff is spending large chunks of time on this. Nothing like this has happened before in my career. This is new territory.

500-700 dollars is a lot of cash for these young people – and they are struggling under the load. I have not experienced young fathers crying in my office like I have this week. Again, the “troubles” have just begun.

We have here a pharmacy from a national corporation and also a local owned and operated pharmacy. The national chain basically tells the kids to pound sand. The local owned outfit, whose owner is in multiple civic organizations is giving them their alternative at his cost – and indeed I think he is giving it to them at his own expense as well. This fact is not going unnoticed in the community at large – and who do you think the goodwill is being bestowed upon? And who is getting the evil eye? I do not find it strange that we are suddenly seeing many prescription requests transferred to the local guy.

Furthermore, these young under 30s, black white and Hispanic – historically in the Dems back pocket – are now repeatedly discussing their politics with me. Unsolicited. I hear “FJB” all day long now.

I am very sad to report that the coddling of Big Pharma, the year of one lie after another from our medical leadership, the disaster that Obamacare actually is on the ground, the promise to “follow the science” and then clearly act more political than anything before, and the raping that our populace is getting from these PBMs is absolutely causing a sea change in where I have normally seen young people politically. Again many minorities as well. They are very angry. Right or wrong, they perceive the Dems and people like Biden and Pelosi as directly responsible. And I live in a mostly blue area.

And I do not blame them for a minute. One man explained to me very kindly that he had to be discharged from his federal job because of the vaccine mandate – and reported to me with great contempt that Biden had him fired – but was going to hand out half a million dollars to all kinds of illegal immigrants. “I voted for Obama twice, Clinton and Biden – but they can suck it if they think I am voting for them again.” I simply do not engage politics in my office. If they bring it up, I listen. Clearly, the kids are indeed beginning to realize what is at stake in their future.

As a life-long Dem, I am very concerned that we may be seeing another Whig implosion. The thing that bothers me is I do not see any evidence whatsoever that anyone in the Dem leadership even cares. They have anchored themselves to some very troubling things that really affect people in their daily lives – and the bill is coming due. Again – I am seeing enough tragic things being ignored and lied about that for the first time in my life, I will be voting a straight GOP ticket until the bad apples are rooted out. I do not think in my life I have ever seen a group of politicians that need some time in the wilderness more urgently.

Needless to say, the fact that problems of this seriousness are happening and aren’t even being acknowledged means that the situation can and likely will get much worse.

IM Doc

I have not even had time to process the outrage I have for the next problem – but I thought this was about as good a place to share it – I am just dumbfounded by what I am seeing going on.

I have now had 2 different patients in the past week with the same problem. They are both young fathers. They are both Roman Catholic. They are both profoundly healthy as are their wives and young kids. They both are employed by 2 different multi-national corporations who have imposed vaccine mandates on ALL their employees. These 2 young men both work from home in front of a computer all day. They never encounter anyone outside of their family and grocery stores, etc.

Because both have very traditional Catholic views, both have declined the COVID vaccines because of the fetal tissue problems. I have always been under the impression that religious freedom was a bedrock of our Republic.

Both corporate HR departments have now sent both of these patients emails demanding further “clarification” of their religious views.

Interestingly, both emails from 2 different companies with HQ thousands of miles from one another, contain a very interesting statement. It is slightly different between the 2 – but I will paraphrase it – “Since you are claiming a religious exemption based on your objection to fetal tissue being used in the vaccine development, please discuss how you also plan to deal with your objection when using common drugs like aspirin, tums, ibuprofen, and tylenol…….

Both emails had the SAME 4 DRUGS listed – but the question was written in different language in both.

That is when I knew that games were being played. It is very clear to me that some entity has been pushing this out for all the corporations to send out. And whoever sent this out is literally as dumb as bricks.

Fetal tissue being used in the development of these drugs? Are you fucking serious?

Tums is basically chalk – as in chalkboard. A simple chemical compound.

Aspirin was developed before the Civil War. Tylenol or its forebears date back to the late 1800s and ibuprofen came of its own in the 1960s.

ALL FOUR OF THESE HAVE NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH HUMAN FETAL CELL LINES. They are all old drugs. Fetal cell lines were really not a thing until after Roe v Wade in the 1970s once the procurement procedure became legal.

After consulting with their priest, I have sent the HR people in both companies the following letter –

Dear XXX,

Patient XYZ has been under my care for X years. I have gotten to know him very well. As a practicing Roman Catholic, who espouses the traditional aspects of his religion, he is opposed in every way to the practice of abortion and certainly to the use of the fruits of what he considers an immoral act.

Because of the tone and flippancy of your letter to him, I have to conclude that you are not serious in addressing his concerns. Since we are indeed discussing the livelihood of a young man and his wife and young kids, I feel that everything we do in this matter should be done with good faith.

I am therefore asking of you a simple request. I need you to back up your assertions in the email you sent him that aspirin, tylenol, ibuprofen and tums were engineered with the use of human fetal cell lines. I have been a physician for decades and have never heard any such thing about these drugs. I am however open to learning new things. Please provide me with those sources so I can discuss your concerns and ramifications with my patient.

Until such time that proof of your assertions has been provided, I will assume you are not acting in good faith – and I will be sharing my concerns with any attorneys that happen to get involved.

Warm Regards,
IM DOC

I want everyone to understand. When I learned Public Health principles 30 years ago, when my father learned them 60 years ago, there was a bedrock statement – COERCION IN PUBLIC HEALTH NEVER WORKS – IT WILL INSTEAD OFTEN BACKFIRE. It is clear to me that Biden, Pelosi, and Fauci were all keenly aware of this simple fact last fall and winter when they were emphatically stating that mandates did not work and were not going to happen. Unfortunately, that wisdom was not continued – and I fear we are all going to learn that time-honored public health wisdom is not something to be ignored or played with. God help us.

 
  1. Yves Smith

    I looked at the laws on a cursory basis early on, in terms of religious and Americans With Disabilities exemptions (let’s just assume clear cut ones, like being allergic to the vaccine constituents; even the CDC says “Don’t take it!” in that case). I was surprised. The requirement for private sector employers to provide an accommodation is pretty weak. This is more evenhanded than some write-ups I have seen:

    https://www.venable.com/insights/publications/2021/06/employers-guide-to-the-religious-exemption

    Nevertheless, the officialdom has succeeded in promulgating the myth (or at best exaggeration) that not being vaccinated = health risk to others, as opposed to self. It’s back to the Big Lie that the vaccines are sterilizing. But the CDC and various officials have made enough statements to that effect that employers can treat that as true.

    And the Feds moving to strong-form mandates (vax only) means an employer can be bullheaded and not offer frequent testing as an accommodation (we’ve said everyone should be tested, this treating the vaccinated as if they can’t transmit has led high vax countries into a world of hurt, see high vaccine rates in Ireland, Iceland, and Israel accompanied by surges, as well as the big study that showed zero correlation between vax rates and contagion rates).

    As for the religious part, the next level of attack by an employer that wants to play hardball is questioning the bona fides of the “religious” belief. The first is demanding proof of their observance. The second is to point out that the Catholic Church has said being vaxxed is “an act of love.” Who are they to question the Pope? The third is to try to argue that the use of fetal cell lines is only super tenuous for Pfizer and Moderna, as in their objection could not be bona fide if they had good information (see here: https://www.icsi.org/covid-19-vaccine-faq/are-the-mrna-vaccines-made-with-fetal-cells/)

     
    1. IM Doc

      Of course, we must consider that is the same Catholic hierarchy who has been covering up boy raping for decades.

      I guess that is an “act of love” as well.

      I am not Catholic. However, it became immediately apparent when talking to this particular priest that this fetal cell line issue may not be equal between the boy raping hierarchy and the great masses in the hinterlands.

      I am not sure how that all plays out in court.

Objective Ace

450,000 per child or familly seperated at the border is a far cry from “every illegal immigrant” which is what Timbers started this chain off saying

 
    1. Objective Ace

      Direct copied quote “AND…headlines that Senator Biden is considering giving $450,000 to each illegal immigrant”

      ImDoc clearly quoted a patient. Most people wouldn’t take that as a fact like we would a Wallstreet journal report

       
      1. timbers

        Thank you for correcting you misstatement, which as you note, I did not say “every” as you originally said I did. I said “each.”

        But yes, I stand corrected on a point of grammar/sloppy wording.

        But, it seems you might be missing the point, which IM Doc made more clearly than I, below.

        $450,000 to non US citizens who broke the law when US citizens get far less if anything.

         
      2. timbers

        And patient quote:

        “Biden… was going to hand out half a million dollars to all kinds of illegal immigrants.”

        I did not say it was a fact. Others did, and I didn’t say “every” YOU said “every” and I didn’t start the chain.

        In other words, every thing you said I said, I didn’t say.

         
  1. IM Doc

    It is also a far cry from what was offered to my aunt after losing her husband in Vietnam and who spent the rest of her life as a single mother raising their kids. It was a fraction of 450,000 in today’s money. Fortunately, she had lots of help from her family members. It was a hard life for them – but fortunately those kids are all adults now and citizens in good standing today.

    What is being proposed is a complete slap in the face to every family or spouse who has had to face such a situation.

    I absolutely understand why these people are pissed off.

    I must face my own feelings and realize I am in concordance with how my patient feels. I will never vote for anyone whose administration has the balls to put anything like this forward – I just simply cannot believe it.

    If there was not some truth to this preposterous story, I would think the White House would be all over the place with the denial cannons. I have seen no such effort.. If any of you have please point me to it.

The Rev Kev

Got no real answer except for a question here. Liquid nitrogen may be important for treating skin cancers, etc. but liquid oxygen is critical from what I have seen to treat Coronavirus victims. Last year they were running short of oxygen tanks in India and patients in hospitals died by the numbers when the oxygen ran out. So would it be worthwhile contacting other industries (sporting actually) where they use oxygen so that you can grab your hospital some bottles? Here I am thinking of suppliers for mountain climbers and deep sea divers. I understand that the stuff, with proper insulation, lasts almost indefinitely but I would not be surprised to see a shortage down the track of oxygen bottles.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Modern hospitals do not use bottles except during transport of patients from different areas while they are mobile or for brief periods of time in the ER or radiology.

    Every room in the hospital has an oxygen port that is ultimately connected to gigantic tanks of liquid or gas oxygen in the parking lots. They are often stories tall and in the USA are often painted at least partially green.

    The temporary bottles are filled from this source as well.

    In essence, modern hospitals are absolutely dependent on a constant flow of oxygen into those gigantic storage tanks. I have often marveled at how vulnerable this is to an attack. Unfortunately, these tanks are also highly explosive if ignited although I am told that would be very difficult to pull off.

    We often refer to this incident in Oklahoma as to what can happen if these things do ignite. Basically very fast projectile fire bombs.

    https://www.oklahoman.com/article/1942053/tulsa-gas-business-explodes-br-nearby-homes-burned-but-no-injuries-reported

    There are videos – I just cannot find them at the moment. It happened right next to what appeared to be an interstate.

    Basically, if for whatever reason those big tanks in the hospital parking lots quit being filled, Lord have mercy. They do not even have enough bottles on standby inside to even begin to cover the needs.

     
    1. Bob

      No, oxygen is NOT EXPLOSIVE.

      Oxygen can and does vigorously accelerate combustion sometimes to the point of an explosion – see Sprengel explosives.

      This is why the pads upon which the LOX tanks sit are concrete rather than asphalt. Asphalt being a combustible petroleum product.

      And it curious that there is a shortage liquid of Nitrogen.
      Although my understanding maybe dated, the classic method of generating liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen, and other sundry gases (argon, neon, Xeon) is to compress ambient air (the air we breathe), liquify the compressed air, and then fractionally distill it. Since ambient air is some 60% to 70% nitrogen it would be expected that an air plant would produce many times as much nitrogen as oxygen.

       
      1. IM Doc

        I get the impression from talking to these distributors that there is no issue in compressing gas. It is mainly a matter of the fact that the containers going back and forth have reached a standstill because of a lack of trucking. They have limited supplies of stuff to put the new product. They are apparently working on this issue very diligently and hopefully this will all work out.

        So many of our issues right now seem to be related to a sudden lack of trained truckers. I have not heard a good explanation for this yet.

        FYI I have had more than one patient in my life smoking while on a cannula of oxygen. Maybe explosive is not the best word but I guarantee you it is flammable. And those cans in Oklahoma did not just launch on their own.

CH

Companies have been forcing working-class Americans to pee in a cup (i.e. randomized drug testing) for decades. The only recourse was the same as it is for anti-vaxxers today: if you don’t like it, don’t take the job or quit.

Now…NOW…the right-wingers are all concerned about “individual freedoms” at work. Give me a f—ing break! Political grandstanding of the highest order.

As for the Catholics, the Pope himself has been vaccinated, so it seems that would have been a much more rational line of argument: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58573892

 
  1. IM Doc

    With all due respect, being injected with any pharmaceutical and peeing in a cup are two entirely different issues.

    Peeing in a cup does not typically require informed consent and signing a document stating that the process has not been approved and the risks are as yet unknown – which was going on all over America by the millions for months earlier this year.

    For the first time in my life, the risks and benefits counseling of people’s own physicians, familiar with their own medical issues, was replaced by TV doctors with who knows what agenda and conducted in parking lots or stadiums. And all this with an agent which at the time and still even now had not gone through all the usual rigors of trials.

    It is interesting you should bring up that topic of peeing in a cup. While these vaccine mandates are now all the rage, every other want-ad in my local paper is screaming that no drug testing is required.

    We do indeed live in a very interesting time.

  1. Marie

    I’ll add in my observations about what has been happening in my neck of the woods.
    I’m an ER Doctor in a community hospital in Canada.
    In the past month we’ve had shortages or outright disappearances of the following equipment:
    Crutches
    Knee Braces
    Plaster Slabs
    The paper sheets we line beds with for hygienic reasons (completely disappeared on my last shift)
    We are also hemorrhaging nurses. I used to know all the faces in my department, and most of the names, and could accommodate and get to know a new face. Now when I walk into work I don’t recognize half the nurses I’m working with – the new folks are a mix of agency (temp) nurses and new grads. This has lead to more medical errors, as it’s difficult for our department to integrate THIS many new folks at once. Also even with their help (and don’t get me wrong, I’m VERY grateful they are here), we are still routinely short 5-6 nurses per shift. The attrition seems to be due to a mix of early retirements, burnout and transfer to other departments, and firings due to the vaccine mandate.
    We are also getting slammed due to increased patient volumes – a percentage of family doctors in the community are still not seeing their patients in person, and not all patients are okay with totally virtual care or they are being sent in by their MDs who think the patient needs a physical exam but won’t do it themselves.
    My question is – what is truly worse: having a nurse who *may* be at increased risk of transmitting Covid because they are unvaccinated, or having no nurse at all?

     
    1. IM Doc

      Myself and my partner make no bones about seeing any patient that comes in the door. I do virtual visits only if the patient requests it.

      There are a couple docs in my community who just will not see people in person. You cannot even imagine the number of transfers that my partner and I have had.

      The problem though is that eventually the brick wall is hit – you just simply cannot keep it up.

      There is a massive shortage of PCPs in this country. And I suppose in Canada too. There is this big huge push to get nurse practitioners to fill the void. Hysterically, the NPs too avoid primary care like the plague and most of them end up in oncology, ortho, GI or cardiology or general surgery.

      The PCP crisis we have been working on for decades that this pandemic has brought to the forefront has just now started to seriously implode.

      And do not get me started on ER docs. God bless em. Just months ago – the venture capitalist firms in the USA that own the group ER practices were laying off the docs right and left. Everyone in America should remember this fact when they go to an ER and take in the just unbelievable chaos. I hope your lot in life in Canada is much better.

Tom

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80OvNaEgmmw

Michael Mina is an immunologist, epidemiologist, and physician at Harvard. This guy makes so much sense. His position: rapid tests should be widely available and used all the time and everywhere. Not as sensitive as PCR tests, but very accurate if a person is carrying a high enough viral load to be infectious.

We’re doing it all wrong.

You can also find the interview wherever you get your podcasts.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I could not agree with this doctor more.

    100%.

    And we have the technology and the capability. Since we are arguing about trillions of dollars here and trillions there – we surely have the finances.

    Accurate? Reliable 100%? – until the vaccines are 100% reliable at stopping spread – why are we even having this debate. If the tests are even 70-80% effective – that is good enough to make a huge dent in the spread.

    And certainly, this approach of mass testing would have years of public health behind it. And if presented correctly to the public, I feel strongly would be accepted in no time. Unlike the vaccine mandates which have no basis in previous public health and may lead to serious social problems.

    But we no longer do anything in this country based on common sense. That is a different timeline to which none of us are a part.

Verifyfirst

Vaccine mandates have no basis in previous public health? Kids have to have lots of vaccines in order to be allowed into school don’t they?

 
  1. IM Doc

    Yes – you are correct.

    However – you are talking about vaccines that have gone through all the appropriate trials and the risks and benefits are known – and the benefits of preventing epidemics of very lethal infections are overwhelming. And because the safety is known there is widespread trust.

    As I have repeatedly stated, I have ordered tens of thousands of vaccines in my lifetime.

    We have not had near the time or ability to completely assess this situation with the COVID vaccines. And certainly with what we know about the COVID vaccines now, there is really no big benefits for “public health” in general. There is enormous benefit for individual patients that are at high risk and I have spent inordinate amount of my time trying to convince these people to go for it.

    In the vaccinated, it appears the contagion can be spread and caught likely just as easily as in the unvaccinated. Therefore, the risks and benefits are all on the individual side and not on the community side. This is completely different than in most of the childhood vaccines which lead us to sterilization and decreased spread to zero. Our COVID vaccines currently will be able to do no such thing. We can greatly impact high-risk individual lives with these vaccines and we should all be trying to do that – but impacting the course of spread in a vast population is much different with these COVID vaccines than say with measles. It is unfortunately simply not going to work that way until/if we get better vaccines.

    If the COVID vaccines worked like the measles vaccine, we would not be having all the discussion about “protecting the vaccinated” would we? If they worked like they were early on promised, the vaccinated would not have to worry for a second about the unvaccinated. The consequences and problems would theoretically all be on the unvaccinated. We can behave that way with certainty with the measles and mumps vaccines with just microscopic levels of breakthrough. But the COVID vaccines offer no such protection. I applaud anyone who gets vaccinated – especially those in higher risk situations. I spend large amounts of my day every day doing just that. But given the way these were sold, and given what has occurred, I blame no one for being hesitant. It is my job to convince those high-risk to overcome their doubts. But demonizing anyone who has concerns and having them fired is just completely inappropriate.

    I really do wish Rachel Maddow and Tucker Carlson and Chris Cuomo and even Dr. Wen and Dr. Fauci could spend just one day with me – and see what all the confusion and chaos has wrought in the minds and souls of my patients. I really do.

    Public health has no business mandating these for individuals in this situation. Heart disease and strokes have killed more people than COVID this year – but you do not hear the public health authorities mandating that every adult take LIPITOR. Why not?

    It is because coercion simply does not work in these situations. Coercion often severely coalesces resistance. Look around you. Much research has been done on this in the past. Just look at Dr. Fauci’s take on coercion and vaccine mandates from just last autumn before the vaccines arrived. What he said then and what he is saying now cannot both be true. (Of course when looking for that link, I was able to find 3 different contradictory things he has said about vaccines in the past year). There has been no sudden sea change in decades of public health research. And what he said last autumn had years of public health research and wisdom behind it. He appropriately exempted from his statement last year Health Care workers (and I would add the military) – which are not at all “the public” in public health.

temporaryreality: (Default)
 Lambert Strether

> Five minutes on the VAERS site

Needs a link. An addition, AFAIK, no quality assurance is performed on VAERS data. Am I wrong?

 
  1. IM Doc

    I am not sure there is anyway to link to a VAERS query once you have left the main page.

    You can go to the VAERS site here – https://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html

    There is no way I can tell to do any linkage after you have started a query – but then again – I am fairly computer illterate.

    Unfortunately, it took me weeks and weeks of playing with this before I could ever come up with a correct search. Interestingly, all the time, searching through this leads to different findings. I am sure there are just tweaks or wording issues.

    This is a hideously cumbersome system – I think they did it this way on purpose.

    I did this same search (see my other comment) and found almost exactly the same findings.

    There is no quality assurance – but it is easy to tell that some of these entries are very likely legitimate. Some of the others – who knows?

    I just have no clue how to link anything once you have left the front page.

Industrial Culture Handbook

“The FDA has not authorized or approved ivermectin for prevention or treatment of COVID-19,” equals “do not prescribe.” — Hope is the enemy. If Covid doesn’t kill you, a secondary infection will.

Monoclonal antibodies and the vaccine are almost the same thing, the difference is the vaccine allows your own body to create antibodies as opposed to a lab creating antibody proteins with an intensive use of resources.

 
  1. Lambert Strether

    > “The FDA has not authorized or approved ivermectin for prevention or treatment of COVID-19,” equals “do not prescribe.”

    It does not. A doctor may prescribe Ivermectin for off-label use regardless of the FDA or CDC’s opinion. I don’t know what you mean by secondary infection. The placebo effect (“hope”) doesn’t cause them, so far as I’m concerned.

     
    1. The Rev Kev

      Here in Oz, our doctors have been forbidden from prescribing the horse-paste to those who want it for protection from the virus or as treatment. I suspect that this was done as part of negotiations with pharma companies as a precondition for importing their vaccines here. We are still importing Remdesivir though so there is that.

      https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/australian-gps-banned-from-prescribing-ivermectin-to-covid19-patients/news-story/6291379ada4720568584c7717651f794

       
  2. IM Doc

    I am very sorry to inform you – but you are completely and terminally wrong in your assessment of the FDA approval issue.

    Once a drug is approved by the FDA for any use whatsoever – any licensed physician in this country can use that drug for whatever indication he/she may deem doable. This has been this way for decades.

    This has never been questioned before either. There are all KINDS of drugs out there in every day use that are not approved for the indications they are being used for. BOTOX, all the hormone blockers for gender transitioning, amiodarone for AFIB, I can go on all day.

    If they push this too hard with ivermectin not being allowed to be prescribed – they are going to open up a pharmaceutical wasp nest like nothing ever seen in this country. Just wait till the red states start banning the hormone blockers for gender transition as just one of many many examples.

     

Lee

In related news:

Ivermectin: Australian regulator bans drug as Covid treatment after sharp rise in prescriptions

Ivermectin: Northern Ireland seizures of unproven horse drug used for Covid

The combination of viral mutations and waning immunity, whether from vaccines or infection, could make treatments such as monoclonal antibodies, ivermectin, or something yet to be discovered our the best option for individual survival and the avoidance of civilizational collapse.

And why the hell are those RCTs of ivermectin we’ve heard so much about taking so long?

 
  1. clarky90

    A suicidal intake of ivermectin was reported in a 19-year-old woman with severe Loa-Lao filariasis. She developed nausea and vomiting, and moderate neurological manifestations including ataxia, reactive mydriasis and hyperreflexia after possibly ingesting 100 times the recommended therapeutic dose (≈400 3-mg ivermectin tablets). She received conventional supportive treatment and could be discharged from hospital on day 4 post-ingestion [Djeunga et al., 2019].

    “ivermectin human toxicity cannot be claimed to be a serious cause for concern.”

    EXPERT REVIEW REPORT
    MEDICAL SAFETY OF IVERMECTIN

    Link to Toxicology report (requires email for free PDF download): https://www.medincell.com/ivermectin/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATiX0-2PEr4&t=251s

     
    1. IM Doc

      I can suicide on Tylenol – I can suicide on Advil – I can suicide on Listerine Mouthwash. All are easily available OTC.

      A suicide overdose – where bottles of pills may be involved is not even in the same league of issues as a toxic side effect.

      Suicidal overdoses are handled completely differently by the authorities.

      The TRUTH of the matter is this agent has been in wide distribution over continents for the past 40 years. It has literally been given in billions of doses at this point. It has one of the best safety profiles of any drug in the PDR.

      The fact that one patient committed suicide with it – is not evidence of a safety problem with the drug. That is an apples to oranges comparison. I am pretty sure if I took 100 times the recommended dose of pretty much any medication in the PDR I would be dead. By the way, that is not just pharmaceuticals – you can absolutely overdose yourself to death on plain simple tap water.

       

IM Doc

I would just like to make certain that everyone knows that there are indeed reports in VAERS of testicular swelling after the vaccine. I am able to find about a dozen. I have not searched for adjacent type diagnoses – lymph node swelling, genital pain, etc. All of these dozen or so reports date back long before this whole issue – and some of them have been filled out by physicians. I have also looked for erectile dysfunction. Quite a few hits – but after looking over them, I can not be certain about the provenance. Honestly, there are quite a few, extending back for months. and I just do not have time to read over them. They are there, however.

I am saying this because if you look at the PDR entry on any pharmaceutical used in the USA, you are going to find a laundry list of complications and side effects. This often goes on for 2-3 pages in very small type. They are forced to list every single one.

The VAERS is all we have right now. However, when the PDR entry of this vaccine is finally published, if it is true to form, both testicular swelling and erectile dysfunction should appear in the long list of side effects.

I have no idea what is going on with this young singer. But the fact that these issues exist on VAERS is a problem for all those bashing her today for making stuff up – or her family making stuff up. These issues appear to be rare. RARE IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. RARE HAPPENS. To wit, I am personally dealing with a patient in the hospital this minute with a condition that happens in America only 1-2 times a year. For whatever reason, the “rare fairies” delivered this patient to my ER yesterday.

I cannot support bashing her given the facts that are available. Patients in my practice have had very strange and almost unique reactions to this vaccine – I have no doubt that this could very well have happened to her family member. Hopefully, he sought medical attention.

Why do media and social media figures feel they have the authority to question anyone else’s medical issues? When did this ever start being something in our discourse? I get it with political figures or Presidential candidates….but a family member of a rock singer in Trinidad? Are there not more important things to talk about on these news shows?

Disparaging others on national media for stating their truths is just inexcusable. Especially coming from St Joy Ann Reid. Look at how fast Ms Minaj destroyed Ms Reid. It is very easy to do when your opponent is a moral zero. I just cannot believe the media in this country. Nor can I believe the Twitter mobs – but more importantly the Twitter corporation censoring her for this kind of thing is very ominous indeed.

 
  1. Lambert Strether

    As I understand it, VAERS is system of poorly vetted digital submission. In other words, it’s more like 4Chan than the curated NC comments system. To me, it’s not trustworthy.

    As for Minaj, she’s a celebrity and can say whatever comes into her head for clicks, especially when it concerns her boyfriend’s sexual function or dysfunction. She also says:

    Minaj said in a separate tweet that she had not been able to complete enough research of her own on the COVID-19 vaccines to get one in time for the Met Gala, a star-studded fundraiser for New York’s Metropolitan Museum of Art.

    Later, Minaj added that she will get vaccinated to be able to tour.

    My view is that even at my advanced age, I personally notice and care about the state of my testicles (“No news is good news”). My intuitive sense is that a very large number of men do the same. In other words, if this were a real issue, we would have heard about it long before now, especially because no tests are required. This is even more true, given that liberals are not the only political faction given to fomenting moral panics or motivated reasoning.

    As far as erectile dysfunction, I will refrain from n=1 testimony, but this idea is persuasive at the narrative level because of all the other weird vascular stuff Covid does. My impression, however, is that erectile dysfunction has many overlapping causes, which could include being cooped up at home, pandemic stress, etc. This is something that would, I think, take a real RCT to sort out.

     
    1. IM Doc

      I am just saying that we should not just discount the story out of hand. If real – it is very very rare.

      Unfortunately – VAERS is the only system we have to monitor vaccine complications. There is another called CISA – but that is just about the same level of problems.

      But remember – we were promised over and over again early on in the vaccination program with the EUA that side effects and problems would be vigorously monitored. This system is what is in place to cover those promises.

      VAERS and CISA is what we have. I am certain that the FDA very likely has other ways they are monitoring complications – but that is not open to community physicians like myself. This is all we have.

      And yes – the testicular issue is very rare – 12 out of millions (even if the 12 is not really 12 but 6) is very rare – but it is there – and as I stated I can tell that some of those reports are put in by physicians. I give those absolute credence.

      I have had to look things up on VAERS multiple times this year to see if some strange thing happening to a patient was unique or if there were others, and the N was 3 or 4. Fortunately, the vast majority of my patients did not have any significant problems – and these things resolved. But it can give great comfort to people to know that yes – this has at least been reported.

      This is our horribly broken system – and it is what we in clinical medicine are forced to use. That is the way it is.

       

Andrew Watts

RE: What the Never Trumpers Want Now. It’s clear that Frum is completely delusional, and so he and his will fit in very well with the liberal Democrats.

Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. -Euripides

 
  1. IM Doc

    I have always found the antecedent quotation from Sophocles to be a much more appropriate comment on our time ——

    “τὸ κακὸν δοκεῖν ποτ᾽ ἐσθλὸν τῷδ᾽ ἔμμεν’ ὅτῳ φρένας θεὸς ἄγει πρὸς ἄταν”

    The IM Doc translation – “Evil appears as good in the minds of those whom the gods will soon lead to destruction”

    This is found in Sophocles – ANTIGONE – Lines 620-621

    For the purists – I did the best I can on the Greek letters.

IM Doc

I was just in the hospital’s doctor’s lounge in between patients when the FDA vote on the boosters came down 16-2 AGAINST.

As is usual, the physician’s lounge television was tuned to CNBC at that very moment. That is how I found the news.

Amazingly, they had Dr. Fauci on almost immediately.

What a perfect encapsulation of the whole situation. The nation’s medical ( scientific ) head of the COVID response, is on CNBC – a FINANCIAL channel to let the world know his thoughts in between breathless takes on plunging Pfizer and Moderna stock prices. I cannot think of a more befitting example of all that is going wrong.

 
  1. Kengferno

    re: booster shots. I haven’t seen any info that indicates that they are any different from the original vaccines. That they are basically the same thing and the booster shot just refreshes the original vaccine as it declines in efficacy. Is that correct?

     

    1.  
      1. Zachary Smith

        Might the effect be better if a person who was originally inoculated with Pfizer to receive a Moderna booster?

        From my (uninformed) point of view, the mix-and-match strategy makes lots of sense, especially if the same-brand boosters are just more of the same.

        What do we know about the Novavax vaccine? – Expert Q&A

        “The Novavax COVID-19 vaccine (NVX-CoV2372) is a protein-based vaccine. Protein-based vaccines have a good safety and efficacy track record and are used in adults and children to prevent diseases such as hepatitis B, pertussis, influenza, pneumococcal illness and meningitis. They are typically given together with an adjuvant to boost the immune response and ensure both humoral (antibody) and cellular (T cells) responses. The Novavax vaccine is made from multiple copies of the SARS CoV-2 spike protein, formed into tiny particles (nanoparticles) and then mixed together with an adjuvant derived from tree bark. It is given as an intramuscular jab like other COVID-19 vaccines, with two doses given three weeks apart. After injection, the nanoparticles are taken up antigen presenting cells, which then display the spike proteins on their surface and stimulate the immune system to make antibodies and cellular responses.”

        I’m going to be paying a lot of attention to this one.

         
  2. IM Doc

    This has been becoming more and more obvious over the past few weeks. It may indeed be directly responsible for the terrible numbers coming from Israel – where the relative risk reduction for the vaccine (They pretty much only used Pfizer) is now down to 16%. And cases after large swaths have received the 3rd booster are now going parabolic. Once an RRR is below the 25% level – we begin to approach the level of worthless.

    https://news.yahoo.com/big-gap-between-pfizer-moderna-034719881.html

    I have been carefully counting the exact vaccination information on every single one of the breakthrough cases I have been seeing ( assuming if they actually know).

    I work in an area that was predominantly Moderna for the first several months because that was all we had.

    It has been interesting to note that since August 1st, precisely 72.7% of the breakthroughs have been vaccinated with Pfizer. (Remember the large predominance of Moderna in my area – making the number all the more striking). All but 2 of the vaccinated admissions that I have had since August 1st have been with Pfizer.

    Fascinating.

    Either the dosing schedule, the dosing amount or something about the freezing/delivery is causing them to fail more rapidly. Or it could be something with the actual biochemical mechanics of the vaccine itself. Above my pay grade.

    However – this has been a topic of conversation for weeks among colleagues both local and far away. Being noticed everywhere. Not that the news media would say a word for months – somehow the flood gates are being opened right now.

    FYI – the discussion in the past few weeks at the FDA to only booster the Pfizer patients was most decidedly NOT because Moderna and J&J were tardy with the paperwork and Pfizer got theirs done first as multiple media stories put forth. Tardy paperwork for a multi billion dollar pharmaceutical my ass. Use your brains.

IM Doc

Houston, we have a problem. (Actually a misquote – but close enough).

Said during an event from my childhood. When a major American scientific and technical achievement was having severe problems. Integrity, honesty, courage and ingenuity saved the day during that crisis. We are about to find out if this country still has it or not. We will see.

I got home from work last night – and watched about 3 hours of the FDA meeting video from yesterday. I have the benefit of being a physician and I possess the learned ability to cut right through the bull shit and recognize at least partially what is going on.

The Pfizer part was the standard issue “drug rep” bullshit I have come to be so accustomed to all my life. All talk no substance. Lots of manipulation of data. Lots of threads that make no sense with the statistics at hand.

The real concern for me was when the safety experts began to talk. I must admit that rage filled my heart. All these months of “perfectly safe, perfectly effective” really took a hit. I will put it like this.. These experts were saying things about the safety issues with these vaccines that would have had them censored instantly from Twitter, Facebook or YouTube. I am surprised that YouTube has left the video up. MC Escher could really have a field day with the hole these tech companies have dug for themselves.

It clearly has gotten the attention of many of my medical colleagues as well. We are going to see how this all plays out.

I guess I have little faith in our current establishment. After all, these Pfizer problems have been somewhat known for months. I have been hearing things for quite a while. AND YET – that is the vaccine the FDA gave full approval to. I honestly do not know if there is anyone left with the integrity to stamp out all the corruption.

Sorry guys, rant off. I do feel some vindication after watching that – that all these safety issues I have been seeing may have some substance. I just do not know where we go from there. It seems to me the die has been cast and the American people are entrenched on all sides.

This is exactly the worry public health officials for generations have had when we combine medicine with politics.


ChetG

What one didn’t have in the 60s and 70s but which one has today is fast-food restaurants everywhere. That has to make a difference, and since they’re popular, the weight climb is, to my mind, understandable.

I can give one other example: Since the start of the pandemic, I’ve lost about 15 pounds. The difference? My wife and I stopped eating at local restaurants (good food but perhaps large portions). In the end, I think eating less will make the largest difference.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Not only did they not have fast food restaurants everywhere in the 60s and 70s – but the big offender in the problem is sugared drinks.

    When I was a kid in the 1960s/1970s – the small drinks at fast food places were about the same size as a shot glass. The LARGE drinks back then were SMALLER than the small drinks are now. The large drinks now are actually often appearing to be 1 liter or more.

    That kind of liquid processed carb is absolutely hellacious – and millions of Americans do this to themselves daily.

Carla

Re: Actual Healthcare, as in Expanded, Improved Medicare for All:

Last night, I attended a webinar Physicians for a National Health Program (PNHP) held on Direct Contracting Entities, which are posing an immediate threat to traditional Medicare, completely privatizing it and putting it entirely under the control of Wall Street. There is plenty of information about DCE’s available at the PNHP site. I urge my compatriots here, particularly physicians, but health care advocates (which is all of us, right?) as well — to please consider signing and sharing the petition linked below.

https://pnhp.salsalabs.org/DCEpetitionSeptember2021/index.html?eType=EmailConfirmation&eId=2a6c743b-1860-4199-bd8b-fe67420c752f

 
  1. IM Doc

    Thank you very much for this link.

    If people only knew the almost weekly tragedies I get to deal with because of Medicare Advantage Plans – it would get some attention. Somehow these stories are never told.

    This Direct Contracting Entities would be the next step in the ultimate dissolution of Medicare and handing it over to “non-profit” entities. Look around you right now at the staffing crisis in the hospitals in this country as just one small example as to where this will all lead.

    I can only hope these kinds of ideas will fail.

  1.  
  2. IM Doc

    At my small rural hospital –

    I would say basically the mass exodus of employees has already happened long before anyone dreamed of vaccine mandates.

    Nurses are just plain burned out – and have left – we have gone from 40 or so a year ago – down to 16 now. The nursing home attendants have left in droves – the 20 dollars an hour offered – cannot compare to the 25 dollars an hour at the Dairy Queen.

    There is also a large contingent of remaining nurses – who literally REFUSE to take care of the unvaccinated patients – causing massive logistic headaches for the managers. I find that approach to be reprehensible. Did any nurse when I was young get the privilege of refusing to take care of an AIDS patient? Did any of my fellow interns? ABSOLUTELY NOT – would have been considered immoral.

    The ranks of the CNA and orderlies is so dwindled that I am reliving my intern year – and taking patients back and forth from radiology myself .

    I would say that the cratering of the employees was going on long before the vaccine mandates occurred. A loss of 1 employee now would be critical. I am guessing things may be similar for the examples you provided. I am hearing from colleagues this is going on everywhere. My hospital actually has it good compared to others in other places.

    I will put it to you like this – our current hospital load – COVID and others – is absolutely crushing because of the staffing deficiency. However – this amount of patients would have been a breeze last year during the last crash.

    Somehow – none of this is even remotely conveyed in the news stories.

     
  1. Terry Flynn

    Health care falling male life expectancy etc. Cancer treatment has effectively collapsed in Nottingham UK.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-cancer-chemotherapy-delay-nottingham-b1925484.html

    Those who receive chemo to make palliative care less unbearable (palliative chemo) are receiving letters saying “that’s it bubye”. I would say more if I could but I can’t. All hell has broken loose. I’d say more if I could but suffice to say a 10 year waiting list means “don’t get cancer in East Midlands – you’ll be dead before proper diagnosis”. The cull has begun.

     
    1. petal

      Terry, I can’t say more, but was informed yesterday by a friend in the know that chemotherapy is being rationed. Between that and other supply issues(needles, syringes, etc), they said don’t get sick. This person is expecting a bad winter. My mother also cannot get sulfasalazine anymore due to a shortage. They now instead want to put her on something that has bad side effects and she’s had a bad experience with previously. Good times.

       
        1. IM Doc

          FYI – I cannot speak for chemotherapy.

          However, we are having all kinds of issues with the supply of the multitude of immunologic medications for autoimmune disorders. Humira and Embrel are available but many of the others not so much. We are doing all kinds of changes on these patients.

          Since many of our modern chemotherapy drugs are similar to these medications, I am assuming there may be shortages of them as well.

          I was told by the pharmacist in the hospital that the issue is many of the manufacturing companies have been tasked with making monoclonal antibodies for COVID – and it has affected the ability to process all these others in a normal time frame.

          It has also been an interesting year – in that every single COVID medication in the hospital – IV steroids, remdesevir, and multiple abx for secondary infections have been on back order this year at times for weeks. And now even the monoclonal antibodies are being rationed. This is very very peculiar in American medicine. We have shortages of this and that before – but nothing like this past year. Eye-opening.

In reply to a comment about off-label uses for medications (also, sorry the indent-formatting got lost about here):

IM Doc

Viagra was initially going to be a blood pressure medication.

The backbone chemical structure of all the SSRIs was originally created to be used as a coloring agent for paint and shellac.

Gabapentin was originally a seizure medication.

One of the components of Bactrim – now a common antibiotic – was originally an anti-parasitic.

Some of the common older diabetic medications were originally modeled for chemotherapy.

Even ivermectin is now used by not a few urologists for a very difficult urinary problem called interstitial cystitis.

Shall I go on?

The history of Pharma products is replete with chemicals that actually worked better for other indications than their original intention. Many of these were not found out until the drug was released and then subsequently experimented with by physicians for other uses. Much of these discoveries were total serendipity.


Lee

“I hate videos as a medium for conveying information but this is worth your time.”

I hate to begin my day by differing with she who so impressively and graciously runs things at this site but as both an avid reader and a fan of video, I must rise in defense of the latter medium, and offer as an example an 18 minute recent interview with an ICU nurse working at a hospital in Tennessee that is currently being overwhelmed by Covid patients. The type of information provided by this young woman’s observable demeanor would be difficult, perhaps impossible to convey by symbols on a page. After all, anatomically modern humans’ ability to communicate viscerally through voice and gesture precedes literacy by tens of thousands of years.
 

IM Doc

Incredible video –

All I can say – I have been doing this for 30 years.
I have never seen nurses and other staff leaving in droves like is happening now. Not even close. All over the country. I have never seen MDs and DOs retiring and leaving practice like they are now. Just in the past 6 months, 5 of my graduating residency class have hung it up. 3 were Critical Care docs, 2 were hospitalists. I do not find that to be a coincidence.

Since my earliest days as an intern, I have had a real soft spot for nurses, CNAs, and RTs. They have repeatedly over the years saved my ass so many times I cannot count. To see them put in the position they are today is absolutely heart-wrenching. All the time I have them coming up to me and just erupt into tears.

I do not believe the American people truly understand how close we are to the event horizon of totally unraveling our health care system. It is that bad. I really fear if this situation goes pear-shaped this fall and winter.

I feel like the wrath of the whole country is on me every day. I and my staff never know when someone will go off. I never know how many times I am going back to the hospital when my waiting room is packed. People are angry and at times very out of control. I am very very tired of having to pick up after the constant miscommunication disasters of our federal health officials. People have every right to be very angry.

This week’s shit show – trying to explain the federal health officials’ guidance on who gets the Pfizer boosters. The FDA and the CDC are saying two completely different things. It is literally – “who are you going to believe – the FDA or the CDC?” ——. In 30 years – I have never been put into that position. Not once. Not in the darkest days of the AIDS crisis was there this much confusion. I literally have to do the very best I can do – and hope that all the years of training are solid guidance in the chaos.

Never in my wildest dreams.

bassmule

A few items from a New Yorker interview with Céline Gounder, an epidemiologist and infectious-disease specialist at Bellevue Hospital and on the faculty of N.Y.U.’s Grossman School of Medicine, and was a member of the Biden-Harris transition team’s COVID-19 advisory board:

What we’ve also seen, and this is typical of any vaccine, is that right after vaccination you get a big surge in antibody levels up front. But that’s not the only part of your immune system that kicks in; your immune system is forming a memory response, through memory cells. And so the antibodies may drift back down over time, but your memory cells are still there. Then, if you’re reëxposed to an infection, your memory cells kick into gear, and you get another surge of antibodies. The issue is that it takes three to five days or so for your immune cells to start revving up to make antibodies, and in that time the virus can still infect you and replicate—the incubation period with the Delta variant, for example, is about four to five days. Your immune system nips it in the bud before you get really sick, but you could still end up with a breakthrough infection.

“That’s really how most vaccines work. They’re not preventing all infections—that’s what we call “sterilizing immunity,” and that’s actually quite rare. What most vaccines do is prevent the infection from taking off and making you sick. One of the problems with this whole debate around boosters is that people have had very unrealistic expectations of what vaccines can or can’t do. They think that seeing breakthrough infections is a failure of the vaccines, when it’s actually quite predictable and normal.”

If you have already been fully vaccinated, there are diminishing returns on what that extra dose of vaccine will do to protect you, versus what it will do if it’s in the arm of somebody else in your community. You have to think about risk in terms of your risk reduction through vaccination, multiplied by the risk in the community. You as an individual will stand to benefit most by reducing risk in the community, if you’ve already been fully vaccinated. And the best way to do that is to vaccinate people who are not yet vaccinated.

And it is still a scarce supply, you know—not just in the United States, but around the world. Less than four per cent of people in Africa have been vaccinated, and that’s going to be the incubator for new variants, which will threaten our pandemic recovery. This is not humanitarian. This is not about generosity. This is pretty much about self-interest: if you are actually interested in getting on the other side of this, you have to start paying attention to people who are not vaccinated—not just here but in the rest of the world.

What COVID Booster Shots Can and Can’t Do

IM Doc

I would have to do some research – but I honestly do not believe any of the other available vaccines has this high of a breakthrough rate. The flu vaccines are non-sterilizing – but I have never known them to have the kind of breakthrough cases we are seeing now.

The author of this piece really must go and look at all the articles from our media, politicians, and medical leaders from earlier this year. She really does have her head up her ass. The fact that you “could not get infected” was being screamed from the rooftops for months all the while with the ubiquitous 95% , and 97% claims. I am looking at my vaccine consent form right now. It clearly states that my experimental vaccine will prevent COVID infection.

There were those of us with our hair on fire trying to get our colleagues to realize these vaccines were being severely oversold. Our efforts went nowhere. I became more and more concerned the more I heard my patients and their supreme confidence that they were done with COVID after the vaccine. Just look at the writing of many of our very brightest journalists – Andrew Sullivan for example. He wrote several pieces in the spring celebrating the fact that COVID would be over by JUNE. Where did he get that idea, I wonder?

Writing such an article at this stage of the game is really a “Lucy grabbing the football” trick.

This is my concern – If these people are not careful, the anti-vaxx movement which is now a fringe has the possibility of becoming mainstream. And that could be generational. They just simply do not get it. And they do not understand that articles like this do so much more damage to their credibility.

 

 


jr

” On average, breakthrough infections seem to be briefer, milder, and less contagious. Among the fully immunized, catching the coronavirus doesn’t mean the same thing it did last year. “It’s a very different kind of infection than in people who are immunologically naive,” Lindsey Baden, an infectious-disease physician and COVID-19 vaccine researcher at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, told me.”

Which coronavirus is Lindsey referring to? Aren’t there different flavors? Isn’t Mu already ignoring the vaccines? Lambda seems recalcitrant as well. Tell me I’m wrong!

Oh wait, it doesn’t matter, my vaccination has expired anyway…

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/post-vaccination-covid/620140/

IM Doc

 

I have dozens of patients who would be very happy to compare notes with Dr. Baden.

I am wondering what they would think of having their cases described as being mild.

I am not sure these people like Dr. Baden are actually taking care of patients.

The vaccinated do seem to MOSTLY avoid critical outcomes. But oh do they ever get sick. Just as sick as all other patients this past 18 months.


Vaccine-Only Mandates as a Manifestation of the Bizarre Civil War-Stoking Impulses of the Professional-Managerial Class in the US

Never in my worst nightmares did I imagine I would ever want Bernanke and Geithner back in charge. Yes, vast swathes of the public at least dimly recognized that the financial crisis bailouts were designed to preserve the banking system at their expense. Yes, no executives went to jail or even had their feathers ruffled. Yes, the Fed, the Treasury, and central bankers all over the world refused to believe that the derivatives-leveraged debt bomb was aimed at the heart of the financial system, even though they had warning in the form of three acute phases before the big Lehman-triggered blow up.

But compared to the clown show we have managing the Covid crisis, the Fed-Treasury team was a paragon of managerial virtue. There is every reason to loathe their banking system friendly, cognitively captured priorities, backed by Obama’s fundamental conservatism and personal reluctance to cross anyone in the clubs he’d just joined. But they were bloody well competent at pursuing those bad objectives.

By contrast, most readers are all too familiar with the sorry conduct of public health establishment in the US over the course of the Covid crisis, from the initial denial of the possibility that it could become a pandemic,1 to advising against masks, to ending lockdowns too early, to imposing too few restrictions on international air travel, to refusal to impose quarantines with teeth, to the premature May “Mission Accomplished, take off your masks” pronouncement.

Today, we’ll discuss the vaccine mandates as a perverse example of the “othering” that has become a prominent and not-productive element of the official response to Covid. It as if this focus designed to serve the emotional needs of those in charge, in particular reaffirm their claim to authority and assertion of special privileges, rather than prevent death and suffering. And the “others” are responding in kind to the open hostility, starting with Biden saying he’s lost patience with the unvaccinated.

Vaccinations Alone Insufficient to Combat Delta….

A Covid strategy that relied pretty much exclusively on vaccinations could conceivably have worked with the original “wild type’ or “Wuhan” variant, where experts estimated that a ~65% vaccination level would reduce the replication rate to less than one, so the pathogen would fizzle out. There might still be outbreaks in low-vaccination areas, but Covid would be reduced to an intermittent, low-level problem.

But with Delta being far more contagious, or as the experts would say, having a higher unmitigated R0, it would take a correspondingly much higher level of vaccination to lower the R0 to below one, with most experts pegging it at 85% if not higher.

Getting to 85% would be daunting when you factor in not merely vaccine resistance/hesitancy and legitimate economic reasons to avoid vaccination (the risk of miss a day or two or work due to a routine reaction leading to a catastrophic economic downspiral) but also the fact that being vaccinated or getting Covid confers less than a year of immunity. The best guesstimates seem to be eight months for Moderna and contracting Covid, and close to that long for J&J, versus five to six months at best for Pfizer.3

Despite efforts to impugn data out of Israel showing declining efficacy of Pfizer vaccine4, confirmed by a large-scale study out of Mayo, it appears that the current vaccines do very little to reduce contagiousness. The CDC study of the Provincetown outbreak found similar nasal viral loads among the vaccinated and unvaccinated; other studies tried to claim the vaccines still reduced Delta propagation. To the extent it does, it ain’t much, on the order of 2.0

Moreover, waning vaccine effectiveness among the vaccinated translates into not merely more breakthrough cases, but also an increasing number of those with breakthrough cases winding up mighty sick. And all those cheery claims that virtually all of those hospitalized for Covid are unvaccinated is composed from anecdata since that information does not exist on a national level. From IM Doc:

I was informed today by the Health Dept that they have absolutely zero way of tracking correctly vaccinated cases. In that they do not have the ability to retrospectively find out which vaccination the person has had. So there is no way the CDC will be having this kind of detail, unless other states are doing this.

Readers have said California and some other states do have proper vaccination tracking systems, but in aggregate, they represent a minority of the population.

The reason we suspect the official-sounding anecdata is we are hearing from readers and medically-connected sources of specific instances of fully vaccinated individuals winding up in the hospital with Covid and some dying. IM Doc has even sent obits of medical professionals he knew who died of Covid, fully vaccinated, with no mention in the text, while the press makes relishes reporting on Covid deaths of the unvaccinated. Even though there is every reason to believe that deaths and hospitalizations are still significantly skewed towards the unvaccinated, the press hyping by how much is undermining confidence among the fence-sitters.

You might say, “But the booster program is starting! The virtuous vaccine-takers will be protected.” Um, not to the degree you’d like to think. Even for Moderna, the most effective vaccine against Delta, the neutralizing antibodies generated against B.1.351 by a third shot were only 40% of the level of the earlier jabs agains the wild type, per Moderna’s own research. Yet the booster program is now focused on Pfizer, the least effective vaccine against Delta. There’s a reason Israel is now talking about fourth booster shots.

You might say, “Well, the drug companies will soon have a booster that targets Delta.” Notice that they are instead offering boosters that are the same as the original shot, as in is designed to combat the Wuhan variant. The lack of any apparent plan to develop Delta or other variant-specific shots does not appear to be due to development or approval delays, but instead the span of variants. As GM explained:

It has been noted for some time that the mutations in Delta/B.1.617.2, on one hand, and B.1.351/Beta and P.1/Gamma, on the other, are orthogonal to each other. And there have been other mutational paths too, but those did not rise to significant prominence.

Which is essentially evolution into distinct serotypes, and is one big reason why we are still injecting the original Wuhan strain vaccine into the arms of people instead of a variant-specific one — the antigenic distance between the Wuhan strain and each of these variants is lower than the antigenic distance between some of them, thus the original vaccine gives the best breadth of coverage.2

Tellingly, even without necessarily having plumbed these or similar details, the media has started to abandon vaccine cheerleading. Notice the start of the segment, the host is clearly frustrated with the lack of sufficient vaccine success and probes Scott Gottlieb about therapeutics as a possible remedy:

And mind you, we haven’t even mentioned the elephant in the room, that of children as a contagion vector. The regular very large-scale tests by Imperial College established in 2020 that elementary school kids are twice as likely as adults to bring Covid into a household as adults, and older children, seven times as likely. Yet children have been omitted from the Covid computation until they started getting visibly sick with Delta and some dying.

And despite the full court press for adolescent vaccinations and enthusiasm for childhood jabs, it’s extremely unlikely that the uptake would get within hailing distance of adult levels. IM Doc lives in a very blue pocket in flyover. A report from early August:

We were at the parent meeting for the new school year this week. An informal vote was taken about this issue so the parents’s feeling could be gaged. There were 114 kids whose parents were there. The vote was 112-2. 112 kids will not be vaccinated.

What started off as an informational meeting turned into a screaming match between about 10-15 parents and the principal/school board. Massive standing ovations when these parents were stating that they will pull their kids and home school them before they would consent for them to be vaccinated.

And perhaps more relevant, with his area having a Covid upsurge, despite an 80% vaccination level in his county, to the degree that the National Guard are in his hospital, the local schools have contained infection among children:

Front page news story today – One of the largest school districts in the state – XXXX – now has almost 500 kids out in quarantine.

Schools up and down the mountain ranges in Montana are having similar issues.

All kinds of parents freaked out about masks and refusing to have their kids wear them, etc.

And yet in my kids’ district, a few here and there with COVID – and then appropriate measures taken.

A heavy community spirit.

All kids and teachers wearing masks. No communal cafeteria. We were asked last week to pack 2 lunches for each kid because they are trying to keep kids in their classroooms for lunches – and wanting no kids to have to eat cafeteria food. So some of the parents are sending 2 lunches with each kid to cover the other kids whose parents cannot afford (or whatever) to bring food. All windows in the class wide open with fans blowing. And they had installed fan filters in each room for when the winter comes. If a kid even has sniffles – they are called to be home – and for 7 days. No exceptions even if they are negative. The cold weather will start here very soon – will see how this all goes then.

We will skip over children for the rest of this discussion, but bear in mind that they create even more problems for viability of the Biden Administration vaccine-fixated response.

….Yet Biden Administration Doubles Down on Vaccines and Resorts to Coercion

Yet with that sorry fact set, here is where we are: With an 80% vaccine effectiveness against serious disease, a lot less than that against infection, the US is effectively doing the same as allowing 20% of people to be infected without any vaccine even if we vaccinated everyone, and it is a lot worse than that if we are far from that target.

And the official response is even worse. The vaccinated were told they could abandon precautions like masking, distancing, avoiding going to restaurants and bars. Due to the summer upsurge, the CDC has tried partially walking this hare-brained May guidance back and now recommends that the vaccinated mask up indoors. But the damage has been done. I see very little masking save at venues that require it, and readers across the US report report broadly similar behavior.

Rather than try to get the public to again adopt low-cost protective behaviors like masking, with soft measures like jawboning the major broadcasters to have all their on camera reporters wear mask, the Biden Administration instead is doubling down on its failed strategy of shaming by escalating and adding coercion into the mix, via vaccine mandates.

Remember, we can see that name-calling the unvaxxed has not worked well in the US data. We were early to start vaccinating the public and have had adequate supplies, yet as Lambert points out in Water Cooler, our vaccination levels are unimpressive by world standards.

As much as I don’t like the punitive glee too often visible in the discussion of the vaccine mandates, what is disconcerting is the strong-form of “vaccine only,” as opposed to the original formulation of “get the vaccine or get tested weekly.” Ahem, given breakthrough infections, why is regular (free) testing made into a punishment and not an incentive? If I could get weekly free testing at my workplace, I’d be all for it. And given the discussion of why vaccines alone are insufficient to tackle Covid, frequent testing would speed identification and isolation of the infected5.

And the reason the doubling down on a failed vaccination strategy via coercive mandates isn’t that the absolute levels of refusals will be all that high, but that they are almost certain to hit the already staff-starved hospitals, who have had a steady bleed of personnel due to burnout and reluctance to take even more exposure to Covid under Delta. Hospitals simply can’t afford to lose more staff. As we have pointed out, despite this recent Covid wave being less deadly than its predecessors, hospitals in many locations are closer to breakdown due to staff attrition.

It is touching to see Rochelle Walensky so concerned about the impact of mandate-triggered departures on already-strained hospitals. From The Hill:

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky on Monday said she backed vaccine mandates for health care workers, but admitted that resulting staff shortages could present a challenge.

We’ve pointed out that a big group that is reluctant to get vaccinated is reproduction-aged women, who’ve heard, often from women they know personally, reports of whacked-out menstrual periods, including cases of their cessation. The CDC has refused to take this seriously and is late to look into the issue. The lack of investigation allows these worries to fester and grow.

New York City is at risk. From New York hospitals brace for mass staff shortages as vaccine deadline looms:

Maxine Carrington, the personnel chief for Northwell Health, said she has had personal conversations with each staff member who is not vaccinated in order to try to increase vaccinations. “I’ve had personal conversations with team members, and I was asked by one: ‘Are you really going to fire us on the 27th?’ And I said, ‘let’s put that aside for a minute and let’s talk about saving your life. Why don’t you want to get vaccinated?’” Carrington said

Mind you, these hospital workers are regularly the antithesis of Southern-state Bubbas, but you’d never know that from the likes of the New York Times. Morning Newsletter, which ran a story today on how only 60% of Republicans had gotten one jab versus 86% of Democrats (hhm, poor follow through in both groups, Lambert’s Water Cooler shows the national vax level at 55.3%) with the headline, Covid’s partisan pattern is growing more extreme, which a reader translated as “Time to put redneck whiteys in concentration camps.”

So how can narratives like these co-exist?

 

 

There are two factors that are missing in the computation of raw numbers. First is that the officialdom has incentives to minimize the impact of these policies. For starters, the chart above is about firings. It’s not hard to imagine that “retirements” are not counted.

Second is that most people who object, or were pushed over the edge by this requirement after all of the Covid stress, would resign before the deadline and find another job. Why burn bridges by being forced out? Particularly for low-level workers that are the backbones of hospitals, like CNAs, cleaners, and cooks, there are other jobs in this staff-short economy for workers who aren’t very highly paid. CNA pay is appalling and they’d be likely to find new work quickly.

There are signs of resistance among other modestly-paid workers; whether they’ll follow through and work only for vaccine-tolerant employers remains to be seen. From Detroit’s ABC station:

“I’ve met a lot of resistance, I’ve had two people get quite angry with me to be honest with you,” said Gail Smith, staffing manager at Snelling Staffing Services in Roseville.

Smith said some of her employers are now requiring the vaccine, and applicants are not happy.

“It’s been 100 percent of the candidates I’ve spoken with. Nobody has said, ‘sure no problem,’ they all had hesitations,” she said.

Many of those interviews were for custodial positions in hospital or school settings, where vaccines have been required. But now, since the majority of the agency’s clients have more than 100 employees, Smith expects to face that pushback more often….

“They’re getting really uncomfortable. They don’t want to miss out on the job, but they’re torn. They’re very torn,” said Smith.

Again, most of these applicants are likely to fall into line, but note that the open positions include those for hospitals and schools, which are already short-handed.

Brunches with Cats pointed out in comments that other strategically-placed workers, like transport workers, weren’t keen about mandatory vaccinations and enough in her state of Washington (which has a vaccine-only mandate) are already resigning so as to affect service levels. As she observed:

Yep. Inslee and staff don’t believe that state employees threatening to quit over his mandate will actually do it. We’ll find out shortly, as they have to have both shots (or one J&J) by Oct. 4 to be “fully vaccinated” by Oct. 18 or be fired.

Whether or not it’s for political points, it could backfire big time if personnel shortages cause cutbacks in public services. It’s already happening within the ferry system, in part due to workers out sick with the virus, but there have been rumors that some are calling in sick in protest or refusing to accept overtime to cover for sick coworkers. As a result, many sailings are being cancelled, leaving passengers stranded on the dock for hours.

State troopers also are in an uproar over a reported blanket refusal to grant religious exemptions within the division, on the grounds that there’s no way to accommodate them. The gov’s proclamation includes the legally required exemptions for medical or religious reasons, but even if granted, they have to pass the “reasonable accommodations” test.

Because they’re truly delusional, they’re requiring employees to register with a third-party vaccination verification program, which means signing an odious 50-page EULA before sending personal and medical data off to the Microsoft cloud. According to one of my ferry contacts, union reps responded to their concerns by saying they had been “addressed” with management, period, and BTW could they help out HR by uploading their documentation by the end of this week.

The regular abuse by anti-vax parents of school vaccine requirements by getting cooperative doctors to send in notes claiming that Johnny can’t be vaccinated is now making it difficult for the few who work for employers like United that have implemented a strong-form vaccine mandate do have bona fide health issues to request an accommodation via weekly testing.6 The law firm representing six United employees as part of a class action suit succeeded in obtaining a temporary restraining order. Most anti-vax suits are terribly drafted so I don’t anticipate that many of the legal challenges to the vaccine mandates will prevail in the end. However, United’s position that six years of unpaid leave amount to a reasonable accommodation for plaintiffs who have (potentially bona fide) medical reasons not to take the vaccine seems like a stretch.7

And even though the press reports that vaccination rates among blacks and Hispanics are rising, there are doctors who object to mandating the vaccines.

But there is one cohort that does fit the “Bubba hatred” stereotype, and that is some hard-core evangelical sects in flyover. However, at least for the one described below, their opposition is not to vaccines; many have taken them and the unvaccinated among them would be amenable to “doing your patriotic duty” exhortations….which are utterly in absence as far as Team Biden is concerned.

From a regular reader immediately after the Biden Administration extended its vaccine mandate from Federal employees to private businesses with more than 100 workers in early September:

This is very serious – I think these Biden people have no idea what they are about to unleash. They have seriously underestimated how common these feelings are in large swaths of this country. Places that grow the food and drill the oil. They have underestimated how many minorities feel the same way. .

Their worst prophetic nightmares are coming true daily before their eyes. They have been told these days were coming all their life and have been steeling themselves for it. They are not anti-vax in any way shape or form. This passport, get fired, lose your life and livelihood is the Rubicon to them – and as of today it has officially been crossed.

An-email from a close relative’s religious leader:

Effective today, the government of the United States of America has cast its lot completely and totally with the evildoers. There is now no going back. The lot has fallen. They come after our jobs and livelihood now. Tomorrow, will come the passports and the Mark of the Beast. It is on the way. We are a fallen and deluded country. We are deceived. God will not be mocked.

None of the chosen will take the Mark in any way shape or form. To do so would lead to hellfire for eternity.

Brothers and Sisters in Christ, war has been declared today. We must fight the Evil. We must fight the Beast until the day of the Glory of the Lord. We must begin to look after one another. We must fight the use of the Mark in our affairs. If we do not fight with all our hearts, souls, and minds before the coming of the Glorious Day, all will be lost.

We will all be getting down on our knees tonight at 7PM. We will need to get ourselves spiritually prepared. They have declared war on us today. We will respond in kind until the day that He arrives to take us up into the clouds.

Needless to say, this is the sort of development that the mainstream media is not keen to report. And in fairness, neither they nor I have a ready way of determining how many believers have reacted this way. How significant this response turns out to be will be largely a function not of their numbers, since they are clearly a minority, but whether they are strategically placed via their employment. But the US is already up to its eyeballs in supply chain disruption, so even if evangelical opposition added to this picture in a serious way, it would be hard enough to parse out so as to facilitate it being minimized.

By contrast, some white collar workers are being handled with care. The Verge reported that Apple is implementing a mandate-lite, requiring regularly testing of unvaccinated employees but not pressing them to take the jab.

In other words, the harder you look at it, the more difficult it is to find any logic for vaccine coercion without a parallel hard push for non-pharmaceutical interventions. Is it desperation and denialism? Blind belief in their own authority and self-perceived moral superiority? Sheer laziness, because a multi-pronged approach would be hard?

I can’t fathom it save perhaps deep-seated cynicism in action. The best-informed recognize the US lacks the will and the institutional capacity to manage the pandemic, and so the vaccine mandate is just another Pharma-enriching approach that also pre-positions the blame cannons squarely at Bubba. In reality, the adopted a “let-er-rip” strategy and the vaccines are at best an effort to protect the health care system…but they aren’t succeeding at that either under Delta.

It’s already obvious that the results will not be good unless the officialdom gets lucky and Covid evolves into a more contagious yet wimpier variant. And so far, the gods have not been kind.

____

1 Contrast with Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s January 26, 2020 warning.

2 Continuing from the same e-mail from GM:

But how big is the antigenic distance exactly?

Here is a new preprint:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.14.21263564v1

They also had a strain isolated from an HIV patient after 190 days of infection, which is a bit of a mix of P.1/Gamma and C.37/Lambda — R190K, K417T, D427Y, F490S, N501Y. That’s called “D190” in the preprint

Figure 2 shows the results for the neutralization reductions:

Baseline

— B.1.351/Beta on ancestral strain serum: 7.2x reduction
— B.1.617.2/Delta on ancestral strain serum: 2.0x reduction (in their assay it is low, others show it to be 5-6x; it varies a lot)
— D190 on ancestral strain serum: 8.8x reduction

Cross-strain:

— Delta on Beta serum: 12.4x reduction
— Beta on Delta serum: 33.6x reduction
— Delta on D190 serum: 27.1x reduction

A reduction of 33x means essentially no immunity — the protective threshold is less than 10 on that scale.

So it will be very interesting to see if some non-Delta serotype survives and rises in poorly vaccinated populations that have been swept by Delta.

C.1.2 in South Africa is a good candidate, maybe even B.1.621/Mu could have caused another wave in India if it got there in significant numbers and could establish itself before it goes extinct.

But long-term, unless the Delta advantage is unique to this particular structure and the fitness landscape turns out not to be flat but with a sharp peak, we will likely end up in a situation with multiple serotypes for which cross-immunity does not work.

3 Even these estimate may be generous in practice. Recall that we flagged official data from Israel in early July that showed that infection rates, even when stratified by age, were proportional when comparing the vaccinated to the unvaccinated. That meant that 5-6 months from when most Israelis were vaccinated, the vaccine (in Israel almost exclusively Pfizer) conferred no protection against contagion.

Other evidence of the vaccines offering only limited reduction in Delta spread. From GM:

Useful example of what happens in an contained population, in this case a prison

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7038e3.htm

80% vaccination, and relatively recent too — half were 4-6 months from second dose, the rest less than that — resulted in 70% attack rate among the vaccinated (and 93% in the unvaccinated)

Attack rates in the 4-6 months groups — 89%

Moderna held the best — 40% attack rate. Pfizer at 81%, but it’s not clear if those are matched by time from second dose.

4 Don’t even try Simpson’s Paradox. One of my very plugged in economist colleagues said as soon as Israel started publishing official data showing declining vaccine efficacy, Pfizer was all over them to try to get them to change it. They didn’t. And as GM said:

There were lot of people talking about Simpson’s paradox and how in Israel they did not properly age match, and how VE was not properly calculated. Israel has some of the most competent statisticians in the world, and they did in fact properly age match, but more importantly, whether we got the percentages right does not matter, what matters is whether hospitals are overrun with vaccinated patients. If they are, and they are, then the vaccine has been broken through to an extent that makes it a failure.

5. But oh, no, that isn’t necessarily happening either. Due to this post already going into the over-long territory, I have not tracked down the prevalence of another anti-public-health measure, that of requiring only the unvaxxed who have been exposed to a positive Covid case to isolate.

6 I fail to understand why school systems have been so chickenshit over vaccine evasion. Why didn’t they require anyone who sought a medical exemption to submit evidence from their health records to substantiate the claims? Oh, and threaten to pursue the suspension of licenses of MDs who had clearly fabricated? The AMA is pro-vaccine and they’d be keen to rout out anti-vax MDs. If that approach had been developed and de-bugged, it would not be hard to implement a similar scheme for Covid vaccines. But that horse left the barn a very long time ago.

7 The niceties of employee rights in this area are over my pay grade. However, generally speaking, it appears that employers normally don’t have offer many/any concessions are far as vaccinations are concerned. However, in this case, some flavors of the Federal mandate and most state and local implementations allow for frequent testing as an alternative, which could conceivably allow the plaintiffs to contend they are entitled to testing as an accommodation.


temporaryreality: (Default)
 Yves Smith

Garbage in, garbage out study. Deaths almost certainly not being evaluated.

IM Doc has had proportionately vastly more cases in his rural county. Sent him this link:

Heart inflammation link to Pfizer and Moderna jabs

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57781637

With this comment: “Either the patients in his county are having extremely bad luck or these #s are understated.”

His reply:

We have had 1 case for sure – a few others unclear – mainly young people dropping dead – and I have another that will be being biopsied/cardiac MRI in the next week in a distant academic center.

None of the drop dead patients were ever fully evaluated – The coroner here is actually a family practice doctor – and is loathe to crack the chest…

And as I heard this week from a cardiologist – who in big cities are seeing this way more often than I – it is actually very much concentrated in the younger and the more fit. The patients who get out and work out vigorously and frequently. Often folks on some kind of athletic teams. In his opinion – and I would tend to agree – there could be one of two things we are seeing. 1) Patients who have very fit myocardial cells are for some reason more at risk for this – that reason as yet unexplained ( there is precedent for this – AFIB is increased in chances in the 60 and up crowd if when they were younger they were into extreme aerobic sports like marathons and triathlons —- OR 2) Much more concerning when you think about it – the ones who are mainly coming to clinical attention are the very athletic ones because even with a fraction of decreased reserve they are aware instantly that something is wrong. There could be a literal army of overweight out of shape x-boxers whose hearts have been dinged but they would not really be aware of it because their main physical activity is a joystick maneuver. Unfortunately, if this is the case – there will be an army of heart failure patients becoming clinically apparent over the next few decades. We will not be seeing it anytime soon. There are some alarming surveillance numbers that indicate this might be happening – but nothing is concrete. This too has precedent in medicine – see the current J&J talc fiasco, or the DES problem in the mid 20th century – not really picked up on until the 1980s and after because the unfortunate cancer it caused – was in the female offspring of the original patients. I could go on and on.

    1. Pookah Harvey

      I have heard the argument that Merck as developer of Ivermectin would greatly profit from an antiCovid usage therefore their statement:
      “We do not believe that the data available support the safety and efficacy of ivermectin beyond the doses and populations indicated in the regulatory agency-approved prescribing information.”

      is proof that Ivemectin is not viable for antiCovid treatment or prevention.

      The problem is that Merck let the patent drop in 1996 and it is now a generic with several manufacturers. Merck could never jack up the price. I guess I shouldn’t say never. They can always use the tried and true method of paying off other manufacturers to stop production. Of course they then may have PR problems if the MSM decided to do their job.

       
      1. IM Doc

        Yes – please do not assume that ivermectin will always be forever cheap. They could play all kinds of games.

        A few examples.

        Colchicine – a drug for gout and other inflammatory conditions, in some form has been around since the time of Henry VIII. When I was a young doctor in the 1990s, a 2 L bottle of pills could be had for a few dollars. Then the drug companies and FDA did their magic – and now it is no longer available in the previous format – and the new and only available stuff – COLCRYS – costs 400-1000 dollars for a few days.

        The same exact game has been played with multiple asthma inhalers, insulin, BP meds, and multiple forms of chemotherapy. All used to be dirt cheap and very effective as generics – now are literally “break the bank” expensive. And there is no end in sight. Insulin in particular is so morally galling because those who discovered it in the 1920s, Banting & Best, basically gave it to the world for a pittance – not the blockbuster amounts Big Pharma gets today. Multiple actual dewormers and parasite drugs are on the list to have this same thing done and there are multiple old antibiotics that I understand are under the gun. The most famous parasite medicine incident and the hideous jack-up in price involved shenanigans by one Martin Shkreli.

        I can see them easily doing this same game with something like Ivermectin. Just FYI – sources have told me that at least some of the antiviral COVID drugs under investigation by Big Pharma have exactly the same theorized activity on the virus as does ivermectin. They are not exact analogs but they do exactly the same thing. It really is a total joke – and is so emblematic of the total regulatory capture of our once proud CDC FDA and NIH. As I have stated repeatedly, once this whole thing blows over, my profession is going to have a big deep hole to dig itself out of.

Hana M

These reports of breakthrough infections/hospitalizations (as in the WV story) are deeply unhelpful. All such reports should also provide data stratified by age and co-morbidities. What I’m hearing locally is that almost all vaccinated patients hospitalized with Covid are also basically very sick with underlying problems such as obesity and diabetes.

 
  1. hunkerdown

    Unhelpful to whom, and why should I not deny them their interests for prioritizing themselves over people like me, to whom such posts are in fact helpful? Personal Pfizer holdings are not a public interest. But if you nationalize the company, we can talk about a jab.

     
  2. IM Doc

    The vaccinated patients in the hospital with co-morbitities and age is largely true – at least where I am – However – that too is slowly changing. Admitting more and more vaccinated patients who are baseline healthy – and just really sick. And in the outpatient side of my practice – where people do not need to be admitted, it is now unusual that I see any unvaccinated patients – just being inundated with vaccinated patients. Many but not most of these people are quite ill – a lesser number nearing hospitalization status. We are still seeing large numbers of vaccinated patients infected all at once at superspreader events. Luncheons, church services, parties, etc. These events almost always require vaccination as a ticket to admission – and you can see how well that helps. That whole concept of vaccination proof, etc – is just such a joke it is not even funny anymore. So many people getting sick at these events where they feel they are safe because everyone is “vaccinated”. It makes politicians like deBlasio, et al look like total morons in my eyes. There are also lots of health care and personal service workers – like waiters and bartenders. It is really overwhelming the ability of my staff to deal with them all. And the majority of these patients have no co-morbidities and are not necessarily old.

    I have learned to just not focus on the numbers that the various dashboards and news outlets are providing – I have to deal day by day with what is going on in front of me. I no longer even have time to think about numbers that are not consistent with my reality going on here on the ground.

RE: “More Hospitals Sued Over Right to Try Ivermectin” [MedPage Today]. “As hospitals continue to admit COVID-19 patients, some are contending with demands from family members to attempt to treat their loved ones with ivermectin. Just last week, the CDC warned healthcare professionals to steer patients away from the drug. But that hasn’t stopped the pressure on hospitals, and the outcomes of new legal cases to force hospitals to provide the drug to struggling, ventilated patients have been mixed…. The CDC reiterated in its warning to healthcare professionals last week that ivermectin is not authorized or approved by the FDA for the prevention or treatment of COVID. The agency added that the NIH has also determined there are currently insufficient data to recommend ivermectin for the treatment of COVID. The CDC did say that there are ongoing clinical trials that might provide more information about these ‘hypothesized uses.'”

Good question:

 

 

IM Doc

About the above Medpage Ivermectin article –

This sentence –

The agency added that the NIH has also determined there are currently insufficient data to recommend ivermectin for the treatment of COVID.

Not actually correct – the NIH current status on ivermectin is there is not enough data to recommend OR to discourage its use. The NIH changed this recommendation in December of 2020 as previously the NIH status on ivermectin usage was to discourage its use. Usually the status in which ivermectin is now placed would be accompanied with all kinds of funds to study the true efficacy of the drug, to see if it is successful. That of course is not being done at this time.

Interestingly, 2 of our other COVID modalities have exactly the same recommend/discourage status. That would be remdesevir and outpatient monoclonal antibodies. EXACTLY the same status on both of these as ivermectin currently. The NIH states there is not enough evidence to recommend or to discourage the use of either of these.

And yet we continue right on with both the others without a blink of an eye.

A little math –

Ivermectin course for COVID is less than twenty dollars.

A course of REMDESEVIR is currently right at 8800 dollars.

An outpatient treatment with monoclonal antibodies is right at 23000 – 25000 dollars with all the infusion costs added.

Remdesevir is loaded with all kinds of safety problems that I have seen with my own eyes. And it has the extra benefit of obviously not working – it literally does not do a god damned thing. Multiple studies have hinted at this.

The monoclonal antibodies are reasonably safe, unless you are one of the unlucky 1-3 out of 200 who have a very significant allergic reaction. Sometimes quite bad. They do seem to help to some degree.
But it is my immunologist and virologist friends who are having seizures about their use like this in massive 100-200 daily infusion centers, and the very high likelihood of producing all kinds of mutant variants with this therapy.

Your bankrupt government that is in hawk already for tens of trillions of dollars is currently “paying” for the last 2 choices – but not sure how long that will last.

Facebook feeds are now filled with all kinds of memes and stories with horse paste and horse pictures. But not a word about the other 2 or how expensive they are. I have seen all kinds of pics lately of my fully vaccinated friends and family in a monoclonal infusion center. They seem to have no clue they are bankrupting their kids future for a medication with the same NIH recommendation as ivermectin – which they are just laughing out of the room. They go right on blaming the unvaccinated for the pandemic in their feeds, all the while the antibodies they have just been given may be leading to the next mutation that will come up snake-eyes. And to boot, that one dose of meds they are getting is more than a lot of people in this country make in a year.

Yet, I continue to use ivermectin and budesonide with statistically obvious effects to keep patients out of the hospital compared to my peers who are not using it.

I have never dreamed in my life that I would live to see the American people bamboozled this easily. But here we are. I just keep working – very hard lately – it keeps my mind in much better places.

I spoke with one of my old students who is now a medical missionary in Africa this week. How this is being handled in the West has been an eye-opener for all to see where he lives. At least they have perspective in Africa. We have lost 600K people in the USA to COVID. The world loses upwards of 1 to million a year from diarrhea. The only difference between the two is that the diarrhea deaths are almost completely avoidable with appropriate care that is freely available in the West but not so much in Africa. And that is just diarrhea. They see the immense COVID freak out in the West and just shake their heads. My poor student just stated that he has to pray every day for strength not to despise what his culture has become.

My mind has been reliving the story of Lot and Sodom & Gomorrah a lot lately. But also to the Book of Daniel and Balthazzar’s feast. MENE MENE TEKEL UPHARSHIM. Written by a hand on the wall to leader of the most powerful country on earth at the time. NUMBERED NUMBERED WEIGHED AND DIVIDED. “Alas O Babylon, the Lord God Jehovah has weighed you in the balance and has found you wanting. Thy last day is upon you.”

Lord have mercy.
 

Lee

“Israel fighting record breaking surge in Covid-19 cases despite high levels of vaccination News.com.au (Kevin W). So much for Pfizer….”

To be fair, according to the linked article and other sources, while the vaccine does not prevent infection or transmission of Covid-19, it does decrease incidents of serious illness and death….for now.

We know that the asymptomatic infected can develop long Covid. To what extent vaccinations reduce the chances of developing long Covid is unclear for lack of tracking testing for and tracking of asymptomatic cases.

“While breakthrough cases of Covid-19 in vaccinated individuals remain rare, early research shows that a small number of those cases lead to “long Covid,” in which Covid-19 symptoms persist for weeks or months.

Why data on breakthrough infections and long Covid is so limited?

Research suggests that between 10% and 30% of adults who test positive for the coronavirus will go on to develop long Covid. The condition can arise even in those who develop only mild Covid-19 or are asymptomatic, the New York Times reports.

However, most research relates to Covid-19 in unvaccinated individuals. So far, there’s little research on how often breakthrough infections lead to long Covid.

Zijian Chen, medical director at the Center for Post-Covid Care at Mount Sinai Health System, said, “It’s too early to tell. The population of people getting sick post vaccination isn’t that high right now, and there’s no good tracking mechanism for these patients.”

According to the Times, one reason for the lack of data is CDC’s decision to track only breakthrough infections that result in hospitalization or death.

“It’s very frustrating not to have data at this point in the pandemic to know what happens to breakthrough cases,” Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale School of Medicine, said. “If mild breakthrough infection is turning into long Covid, we don’t have a grasp of that number.” Advisory Board Daily Briefing, 8/19/21

 
  1. IM Doc

    For what it is worth –

    This is considered to be a total joke diagnosis by many Americans. You just have to trust me – it is most definitely not. Both the NEJM and the ANNALS of INTERNAL MEDICINE have just in the past few weeks had large preliminary articles about patients suffering from this problem. We do not have a handle on how common it is or how long it will last. Things are just too new.

    I am seeing LONG COVID symptoms in vaccinated breakthroughs at what seems to be the same level as the unvaccinated cases although I do not believe enough time with Delta has passed to be really sure. But I am definitely seeing this in vaccinated patients.

    LONG COVID symptoms are mainly 2 big groups.

    1) There are the neuro issues that are the vast majority of these cases – headaches, chronic nausea, chronic malaise, severe and disabling fatigue, brain fog, memory/recall issues, and a very difficult symptom to pin down – “feeling that something is wrong.” Severe depression and to a lesser degree suicidal ideation in folks who have never had that before is also present.

    2) Also happening in many vaccinated breakthroughs are the lung issues. This is usually but not always reserved for those who are really ill and have X-ray changes of ground glass while they are in the hospital or very ill at home. This often leads to a long lasting but not necessarily permanent pulmonary function decrease. In many of the unvaccinated patients from last year, this has largely resolved but certainly not for everybody. I will be interested to see how this plays out over time for the vaccinated as well. They are certainly getting it just as bad as the unvaccinated patients did last year. And please note, these types of problems do not just happen with COVID. This kind of thing happens with so many other infectious disease that leads to ARDS. This will hopefully end up being like our experience in the past with non-COVID infections where with time and exercise this does seem to get much better over time.

    #2 is very concerning – because it is happening at a large incidence in many many breakthrough cases as well. They may not feel sick enough to be in the hospital, but they are hypoxic and clearly having lung issues even at home while acutely ill with COVID. And they very often have these crippled lung issues for weeks/months after their infection. This is happening to healthy patients but is way more common in patients who are not active, who are smokers (including marijuana) or have medical problems like asthma.

    There are other issues that happen with acute COVID, mainly blood clotting events but many others, that are also happening with breakthrough vaccinated patients. These almost always resolve after a time and seem to cause no long term issues. But we have in no way had enough time to really fully evaluate what the long term issues may be. The big concern with these issues is what happens acutely – as in strokes, pulmonary emboli, or sudden cardiac death. I have also seen with acute COVID big blood clot problems in very unusual places, such as splenic vein thrombosis. Once you get through the acute setting, these issues tend to be very manageable.

     
    1. Lee

      Having developed symptoms of ME/CFS 15 years ago, and currently under treatment at Stanford Medical CFS clinic, I know well that long term post-viral illness is no joke. It was probably triggered by a severe respiratory illness I had in the first quarter of 2006.

       
    2. Mikel

      “There are the neuro issues that are the vast majority of these cases – headaches, chronic nausea, chronic malaise, severe and disabling fatigue, brain fog, memory/recall issues, and a very difficult symptom to pin down – “feeling that something is wrong.” Severe depression and to a lesser degree suicidal ideation in folks who have never had that before is also present…”

      Maybe not only the long term effects of the disease should be considered, but also the long term effects of the psychological trauma and/or disorientation of the entire pandemic, from the way it’s been politicized to the way identies are being formed around what is believed about it…and the way grief is processed.

       
    3. lordkoos

      I would think that some of these symptoms such as depression, fatigue, malaise etc could be hard to separate from the feelings many people are experiencing from the general stress of living with the pandemic.

       
      1. IM Doc

        I have been doing a great deal of research about a past pandemic which I have never spent much time investigating – the Great Russian Flu of the 1890s. This has always been thought to be an actual influenza – but recent genetic and virologic studies are showing us that this was very likely the introduction of Coronavirus OC43 to the world.

        Many many physicians at the time were chronicling that the symptoms of this “flu” were different than any other influenza had ever been. Even Sir William Osler, in written statements in his textbooks of Internal Medicine, was of the notion that the symptoms exhibited by patients during that pandemic of the 1890s were really not like the normal flu. His books were written in the decades immediately leading up to the “real” influenza pandemic of 1918. And the one symptom that over and over described by numerous physicians that were writing at the time, including Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, was depression. This just does not happen to any degree in true INFLUENZA and many remarked on the difference.

        It must be noted that the word “depression” is a rather modern word and a modern construct. This construct is from our very reductionist, form-filling out, check the boxes modern medicine. “Depression” today is a drop bucket of multiple different diagnoses of the past. FYI, there are many things like this in medicine, not just depression.

        Conan Doyle and Osler would have used more prominently the diagnosis “melancholia” to describe what we commonly use as “depression” today. But interestingly enough, contemporaneous medical writers of the 1890s often used a completely different word with a completely different diagnostic meaning to describe what they were seeing in patients of that pandemic. That word is ACEDIA. I have seen it used repeatedly in my research of the pandemic of the 1890s.

        The difference is completely lost on us today – but it is actually a very important distinction. ACEDIA is an old medieval concept which is very difficult to describe. Basically it means a depression of the soul. A SPIRITUAL depression. While melancholia was more of a behavioral depression. Mainly having to do with living with consequences of behavior or reaction to events in a patient’s life.

        Interestingly, when I am really talking to these POST COVID patients today – it is indeed more consistent with the spiritual and soul exhaustion of ACEDIA – and not behavioral or reactive like most depressions are. I have occasionally seen this ACEDIA type of depression before, but it is now just one patient after the other. I am also seeing ACEDIA like depression repeatedly in patients who have never had COVID. It is a sign of the times. In the days of Osler and Conan Doyle, they had no way to test patients for the presence of the virus and just assumed everyone had been infected by the miasma. I think today I am seeing this in POST COVID patients and non-infected as well.

        The writers of that era in the 1890s were unequivocal in what they were seeing in their coronavirus pandemic – an epidemic of ACEDIA in those who had had the illness. I find it profoundly fascinating that the exact same type of thing is happening in our coronavirus patients and our COVID world today.

Ian Perkins

What you say about Coronavirus OC43 arriving in the 1890s could be good news in the long run, though not directly for old fogies like myself! Some NC commenters will probably want to jump down my throat for mentioning it, but it has been suggested that natural infection, rather than – or after – vaccination, offers the best immunity to COVID, and the young seem to be at much lower risk of illness than adults. (Yes, I’m well aware they’re not 100% immune, and there are delta and MIS-C and the possible complications of long COVID to consider, but in terms of COVID itself, they don’t seem anywhere near as vulnerable as the elderly – on average.)

My point being, if this has happened before, with a coronavirus sweeping the world as a deadly pandemic before settling down to become a common cold, perhaps because we all get exposed as children and develop immunity, might it happen again? But like I say, that’s a long term view, with probably little bearing on what we do now, today – and some will no doubt continue to insist eradication is possible, which it may yet be.

 
  1. HotFlash

    Herd immunity requires some culls. What was the death rate from the 1890 Flu? 50 to 60% infection rate, 3-4% death rate, so I read. So that’s alright, then. Bangs head on desk.

     
    1. IM Doc

      If indeed it was OC43 the infection rate is now 100%.

      It sweeps over the earth and we all get it every other year or so.

      That is what the concept of endemic status is.

      Endemicity isn’t necessarily a good thing. Many endemic infections still kill millions yearly malaria and AIDS being the ones that come to my mind instantly. There are many others.

      We should obviously try as hard as we can to limit casualities. But at some point, we as humans will need to come to grips with the fact that these pandemic introductions are one of the costs of the privilege of living here. It is part of life.

      There is possibly nothing we can do about it. We have repeatedly tried in both human and animal outbreaks and have never been successful even once. I have my doubts we will succeed this time. It will however eventually calm down and behave like its cousins like OC43.

      Unlike the mantra of modern neoliberalism, we as humans are not in charge.

      When you read contemporaneous writing from politicians and medical people both in the 1890s and 1918 flu you instantly realize that they were doing their best to make citizens understand this simple concept. The hubris approach of modern times that we are in charge would have been unthinkable then. We will see how it all plays out. I have my opinion that they were much more wise during those earlier pandemics.

Basil Pesto

I’ve always found it interesting to read literature that pre-dates modern medicine and psychiatry in particular. You see signs of depression in ‘The Sorrows of Young Werther’. I’m seeing it in snatches in Emma as I reread ‘Madame Bovary’ (which is very funny on what might you might want to call “bourgeois science” – Flaubert’s father was a surgeon, and his museum in Rouen is a joint literary/medical museum).

There’s also the ongoing debate about whether King Lear suffered from dementia. I sort of reject the framing of the debate – dementia didn’t exist then, because it had not been classified. King Lear’s mental state was wholly invented by Shakespeare, albeit doubtless informed by some kind of real world experience, some kind of knowledge, pertaining to a certain kind or kinds of senescence. It’s an interesting case study, medically, but do we gain anything classifying an illness that only truly exists in the mind of its readers and writers. Should authors now be discouraged from inventing new diseases given that we assume that we have a thorough grasp of modern medicine (and I don’t mean inventing a disease that is in itself purely functional as a plot conceit, like in dystopian/disaster fiction). I’ve mentioned once before in comments that I had a case of akathisia. I never would have imagined until then that such unbearable suffering could even be possible. Perhaps there are lots more anguishes yet to be imagined, or discovered.

Would you say those with acedia experience a ‘sense of doom’ as a symptom? or is it a bit less urgent or acute than that?

 
  1. Skunk

    There are many references to “sweating sickness” in Medieval accounts. No one knows what it was, but it seems to have been prevalent.

     
  2. IM Doc

    There is absolutely a sense of doom in many of them. But that is a common symptom in all kinds of depression.

    Being grounded in medical history has been a lifesaver for me all through my career.

    And yes there are so many things that are very clearly described in the past, that we have absolutely no idea exactly what they were.

    Look up St Vitas’ Dance – one of the most amazing medical outbreaks in the history of mankind – and to this day we have not a clue what exactly happened.

LawnDart

Covid: is it OK for medical staff to not treat the unvaccinated?

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/533903-medical-treatment-denial-unvaccinated-covid/

Well, a fat old guy like myself who’s been known to scarf down a bacon cheeseburger for breakfast really isn’t putting medical staff at any additional risk for this particular unhealthy behaviour: I got a couple of jabs of Moderna a few months ago, which means that I am less likely to end up in the hospital with the highly-infectious covid as the cause of my ails.

Yes, medical personel (and others) should not be forced to expose their own selves to harm from those whose actions helped create such risk of harm. In my case, should I collapse to the floor from chest-pains, none should attempt to load me onto a gurney until a small crane is available in order to lessen the risks of hernias or back injuries.

Swim across crocodile-infested waters on a dare? Could one really expect others to jump in to try to rescue them if toothy beasts start swimming in their direction midstream?

 
  1. Objective Ace

    >Yes, medical personel (and others) should not be forced to expose their own selves to harm from those whose actions helped create such risk of harm

    So no treating vaccinated individuals who left their house to socialize either, right? Just confirming consistency

     
    1. LawnDart

      How about “reasonable care” or taking reasonable precautions to avoid infection? And what is “reasonable”? Maybe we can get some lawyers and linguists to take this chum of a comment as a reason enough to square-off in bloodsport.

      I get that people with autoimmune disorders, persons with a history of bad reactions to vaccines, or women of childbearing years, don’t want to roll the dice on RNA witches brew, and that to me is a perfectly good reason not to get jabbed– conditions beyond their control. And kids… we were used as pawns back when I was a kid– it’s only gotten worse. And thus, it would be wrong to refuse to provide care should they catch a dose of CV.

      But fear of microchips or anti-science/anti-vax “justa-flu” “only affects old people (f-em)” refusals? I ain’t jumping in the crocodile-infested river to save your nutjob arse (although I might root for you if I got $5 on the square marked 0:12 seconds– how long you might out-swim and fight off the hungry reptiles).

      I disagree with Doc: you’re free to jump into that croc-filled river on your own free will in order to save those who have taken extreme risks/behaved with utter irresponsibility, but others do not have the right to compel you to do so.

      To those in the field of medicine, past and present, who have put themselves at risk of injury for the sake of others, thank you for your service.

       
      1. Objective Ace

        Lumping people into 2 groups — those you consider to have valid reasons to not get vaccinated and those whose reasons you disagree with — does make ones view of the world pretty straightforward.

        I’d ask if you think everyone else shares (or should share) the exact same set of acceptable reasons as you? I’m also curious where you would put people who do not really fit in either of your stated groups: the 16-19 year olds no longer considered children; those concerned or with a history of blood clotting; or those with heart issues who are susceptible to myocarditis; etc

         
      2. Basil Pesto

        like, “women of a childbearing age” is a *lot* of people. I’d understand your point to some extent if the vaccines were better than they are, but do you hold such strident views about, say, people who aren’t vaccinated with the annual flu vaccine? If not, why not? (acknowledging, of course, that Covid is far more serious than the flu)

         
  2. IM Doc

    Here is the problem. The very fact that there is an article like this is profoundly disturbing to me.

    I guess you could call me old school.

    I did my residency and internship when a previous pandemic – AIDS – was raging. Panic and fear was palpable. We were doing all kinds of procedures as novices where one false move could have infected us for life. Multi drug resistant TB was everywhere in hospital rooms.

    I was taught by some of the brightest and best internists of the 20th Century. The very first thing that came out of our Chairman’s mouth on the first day – “You are now a doctor. That means something. We do not run from pandemics. We run into them. Never forget that.” And I have not.

    I can only imagine what these bright stars of Internal Medicine would think about these constant statements of denigration toward the unvaccinated – and the refusal to treat them. If I would have dared say a word like that around or about an AIDS patient I would have been smacked in the head and fired within hours.

    I can guarantee all that there are some serious RPMs going on these doctors’ graves now.

    I can scarcely believe what is happening to my profession. It is breathtaking. There are many days that I fear that myself and the old guys like me clearly do not belong. What keeps me going though is the knowledge that just like so many aspects of AIDS, this is going to all detonate very soon – and my profession is going to need old folks like us to pick up the pieces.

    And I love taking care of and being around my patients. There is no more noble profession. I have way too many people depending on me to cut and run. And those worried about people being fired or de-licensed. There is simply not nearly enough of us in primary care to even begin contemplating doing anything like that except for the most egregious unethical behavior. And that has always been and will be in the immediate future not related to COVID. It is also a complete non-starter in every red state in this country. The torrential flow of physicians and NPs and RNs leaving the blue states this past year has also been something I would never have seen coming.

Josef K

Cases per 100k population, SC is #1 in the USA at 105.7, followed by:

TN 99.8
KY 97.8
WY 92.3
MS 92.3
LA 91.8
FL 85.9
GA 83.9
WV 83.4

And so on. Anyone see a pattern? I see a pattern.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Yes
    I see a very similar pattern as last summer.

    It is after all the same virus but different variant this time.

    The southern states got lambasted first in the summer/fall wave. Next came Arizona followed a few weeks later by the northern Rockies one of which is already in this list the others like Idaho are already deeply in trouble.

    If things play out like last year it will very soon spread to the northern plains followed closely by California and the upper Midwest. And then finally New England. By that time in October/November last year the whole country was bad but the northern states and west coast were really bad.

    A big outlier in this years pattern is Oregon which is way more affected than it was last year at a similar time during the wave.

    I am assuming that is the pattern you are seeing as well.
     

    Josef K

    IM Doc:

    I was thinking of a different pattern, a political one: the highest-rate states tend towards lower rates of mask-wearing and vaccination, with the former being the major factor in the increases.

    The pattern you point is interested, no doubt valid, but there’s no causality stated; would you agree it’s the reasons (predominantly at least) I put forth, or others (in place of them or in addition to them)?

bassmule

David Leonhardt in today’s NY Times. Critiques of his math, etc., encouraged.

“But at least one part of the American anxiety does seem to have become disconnected from the facts in recent weeks: the effectiveness of the vaccines. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75 percent of adults have received at least one shot.

In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.”

One in 5,000: The real chances of a breakthrough infection.

 
  1. The Rev Kev

    Are you prepared to risk your health and possibly your life on something printed in the New York Times? A newspaper with a proven track record for lying when it suited their purposes? Not having a go at you but with this evolving virus a precautionary approach would probably be wise.

     
  2. IM Doc

    There are less than 25000 in the total area where I live. By their calculus, that would mean that all the physicians in our area would have seen about 5 breakthroughs in total since Delta arrived.

    Well I worked this whole weekend.

    11 on sat
    9 on Sunday
    12 yesterday

    I had 54 total for the week last week. Things may be slowing down because I had 61 the week before. There are days with more than 10 repeatedly. And as time has progressed, these breakthroughs are not just head colds – yet another lie. Serious lung changes and other covid issues are becoming increasingly common among them.

    And the thing is everyone knows it. This has been in the newspaper here repeatedly. These pundits and the doctors supporting them are doing absolutely grave damage to the credibility of the media and medicine. This may be generational in its impact.

    I just cannot believe what I am seeing happen.

    Hey NYT WSJ and all others – is the Pfizer and big Pharma advertising cash really worth your credibility? You are looking more like prostitutes every day. Average people are increasingly noticing it and tuning you out. Just look at the cratering numbers for CNN and MSNBC. This country desperately needs an independent media but instead we have you.

     
    1. Eustachedesaintpierre

      You 5 last words – thank goodness for that & people like you.

      ” Even in a time of elephantine vanity and greed, one never has to look far to see the campfires of gentle people ” – Garrison Keillor.

       
    2. vlade

      Not to question your numbers, but if you have a 25k vaccinated in your area, but are seeing on average say 9 breakthrough cases/day, for a couple of months, that means about 500-600 cases (for say two 10 weeks or so of Delta, no idea what the period you’re seeing this is for).

      Which out of those 25k vaccinated means 0.5% (at least) are sufficiently sick to seek medical help.

      Which seems quite a bit to me. Israel (that has pretty good data) says that in vaccinated, severe cases (can’t find what they call “severe” though) is less than 50 in 100k (as of early August, can’t find any recent numbers), so less than 0.05%, ten times less than what your numbers would indicate.

      I’m just trying to make sense of numbers.

       
      1. IM Doc

        I am reporting what I am seeing.

        Please note as well that even now reporting of non critical vaccinated breakthroughs is not happening. At least where I am and I assume a lot of the country.

        That is why I have said multiple times the dashboards are only a part of the picture in many areas.

Glossolalia

My state of Maryland is now publishing data on breakthrough cases:

About 3,369,018 Maryland residents have been fully vaccinated as of August 15, 2021.

There have been 11,454 COVID-19 cases among fully vaccinated Maryland residents.

Of those cases, there were:

883 cases hospitalized, representing 6.5% of all COVID-19 cases hospitalized

82 deaths, representing 5.3% of lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Maryland

Approximately 7.8% of all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Maryland since January 2021 have been among fully vaccinated individuals.

 
  1. IM Doc

    That has become a very common tactic to underwhelm the citizenry with the vaccinated positive percentage. To run the numbers all the way back to JAN.

    I would be very interested to see what the numbers are since the advent of Delta. I would guess it would likely be different. Comparing things now to back pre-June is really comparing apples to oranges.

     

    The Rev Kev

    “Doctors should be allowed to give priority to vaccinated patients when resources are scarce”

    These people have literally no idea that they are playing with sweaty dynamite here. So forget Wapo writer Ruth Marcus and give me Dr. Marcus Welby instead. At least he followed his Hippocratic Oath. She says that this idea of hers to deny people medical treatment conflicts radically with accepted medical ethics but she is prepared to ditch those ethics not on medical grounds but moral grounds – her morals. This time she wants to do it for vaccine refusal without recognizing that there might be several reasons why people hesitate to take these first generation vaccines. But once you have dumped medical ethics you open yourself up to other ideas which I have seen over the years. You can then deny medical treatment because they are smokers, they are drinkers, they are too fat, they don’t go to the gym to keep themselves fit, they are too poor, etc. But here I will cede the ground to link to an article where a doctor weighs in on this whole idea-

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/533903-medical-treatment-denial-unvaccinated-covid/

     
    1. IM Doc

      The principles of medical ethics have often been a response to the darkest of human times. Think Dr. Mengele.

      I have spent my life telling students that the ethics are there not just for the patients protection but also for theirs and their society.

      They serve us all during good times but more importantly can lead the way out of bad times.

      The very fact that such prominent people are allowed to spew like this about the sacred is beginning to make me question every assumption I have had about the very concept of America.

      On a more practical matter, what these knuckleheads seem to not be able to process is that I and every other HCW are in just as much danger from the sick vaccinated as the unvaccinated.

      The imbecile is just overwhelming.

      Lord have mercy.

RE: AAPS Letter to AMA Re: Ivermectin and COVID Association of American Physicians and Surgeons

IM Doc

I think it important for a little context in the above linked letter from the AAPS (American Association of Physicians & Surgeons ) to the AMA.

First off, I am not yet a member of AAPS but have been trending in that direction and now after this letter and other recent statements will likely become one.

Furthermore, here we are in a national medical crisis. AAPS has been on the ball with repeated statements like this and all kinds of takes on COVID issues. By contrast, in the middle of a crisis which has taken the lives of 600k Americans, the AMA from what I can tell has spent much of its time this past year on “birthing people” nomenclature and other such inanities.

The AMA is what everyone think is America’s physicians lobbying and political arm. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the past 40 years, AMA has become a corrupt horrific influence on medicine. They are more interested in the interests of the power elite – hospitals, insurance companies, and Pharma. They certainly do not give a rats ass about patient care. They own the ICD coding system. So every time you are billed, their proprietary system gets a little cut. They rake in millions of dollars to fund their corruption every year this way.

AAPS is actually an ever growing physician group whose purpose is to represent the physicians, patients and the actual health of Americans. It was a fringe group of outliers. But rapidly gaining on the AMA in physician member numbers. Physicians are leaving the AMA in droves.

I am not surprised by this stand. The questions in the letter are important and the ossified AMA and other agencies cannot answer them without revealing their rank corruption.

This group is the group representing patients and physicians that most people think the AMA is. This letter shows that just like I have been telling you, there is a very large contingent of physicians across America who are just not eating the dog food anymore. Slowly but surely, the battle is being joined.

 
  1. mistah charley, ph.d.

    Doctor, the Wikipedia article about the AAPS states:

    AAPS is generally recognized as politically conservative or ultra-conservative, and its positions are fringe and commonly contradict with existing federal health policy. It is opposed to the Affordable Care Act and other forms of universal health insurance.

    The Washington Post summarized their beliefs in February 2017 as “doctors should be autonomous in treating their patients — with far fewer government rules, medical quality standards, insurance coverage limits and legal penalties when they make mistakes”. The organization requires its members to sign a “declaration of independence” pledging that they will not work with Medicare, Medicaid, or private insurance companies.

    Are these assertions about AAPS accurate? And would you personally pledge not to work with Medicare, Medicaid, or private insurance companies?

     
    1. IM Doc

      As I stated above, it has been in the past a largely fringe group. As the ama has become more and more corrupt, physicians have been joining that are not in that fringe.

      That is indeed why I have not signed up in the past.

      However, as more and more are seeing the absolute disaster that our organized medicine has become, these groups are becoming the only choice for true patient and doctor centered health care. The AMA and all the various boards and governing bodies could absolutely care less about patients. It really is unfortunately true.

      The group has attracted a lot of concierge docs in the past – that is no longer the case.

      I am not at all sure about the Medicare stance since every PCP I know that is in the group have practices larded with Medicare patients.

      If they are for reforming our Medicare system, I am all for that. Especially the crime against humanity known as Medicare advantage plans. Furthermore, this group was 100 percent against Obamacare. I was actually an ardent supporter. Enough time has passed to make me realize that was likely one of the worst things to happen to patients in history. They were right, I was wrong. Having huge chunks of your practice paying astronomical premiums all the while with 10000 dedictibles leads to people not with health care but people with NO care. This group of “right wingers” as you point out they are referred to by wiki ( I never go there anymore for very good reason – the latest of which was the whole Philip Cross fun of last month on this very site and much of their entries on medical issues are just flat out wrong) predicted that was exactly what would happen with Obamacare and here we are. I am daily confronted with people with “insurance” as outlined by Obamacare who have desperate medical issues but have no way to pay their 10000 deductible. Amazingly cruel and yet every.single.day. Yesterday’s entry was a young man with seizures out of nowhere who cannot afford the 2100 for an mri. He has a 10000 deductible but he is “fully insured”. It is a true disaster every day but you will never hear that from the AMA but you will hear it from the right wingers as you call them.

      I have learned as I am older that dealing with dogma and those who criticize others often have their own agenda which may even be worse. That is the sense I get when I hear wiki entries like the above.

      Until we realize our health care system is a complete disaster for almost everyone, I refuse any longer to criticize or belittle anyone with ideas because of their politics. Our system is that bad.

      The physicians across the country I have interacted with that have joined are not rabid right wingers. I have noted in the recent past that anyone who does not agree with the narrative is immediately branded a right winger. And pages like wiki are often the cudgel used to do so. Since I have been commenting on this site about Covid, that has been said about me personally in comments quite a few times. Anyone who knows me would find that statement LOL hilarious.

  1. IM Doc

    I will do some more research into this today –
    However – I believe absolutely nothing that wikipedia has to say about any organization – left or right. When they can make up things out of whole-cloth on multiple medical history entires in the past I have encountered – I can not trust a thing they say. Anyone can make a mistake – but when a Medical History professor like myself can repeatedly email them and try to correct their severe misrepresentations – and get nothing but a laugh or scorn back or just complete blow off – I have no use for them. After those experiences – I trust literally nothing on their website to be accurate in any way.

     
    1. lordkoos

      Wikipedia is a terrible source if you expect to get a balanced view of anything having to do with health care. Their editors seem like an extension of the AMA (and perhaps they are). Wikipedia is virulently against any type of alternative medical practice, even ones that have been proven to be beneficial such as acupuncture, which is covered by most insurance policies as a health treatment.

      Wikipedia on acupuncture: “Acupuncture is a pseudoscience, the theories and practices of TCM are not based on scientific knowledge, and it has been characterized as quackery.”

      I had a similar experience to IM Doc when I attempted to edit a wiki page to defend an alternative practice that Wikipedia referred to as “quackery”. I had taken a 4 year training in this particular practice and had found great benefit in my own life from it. It was obvious to me that the person in charge of editing the page (a Dr David Gorski from Michigan, he’s on twitter) had zero direct experience with the practice in question, and no interest in finding what was true or looking at studies etc. At this point I have little trust in Wikipedia in general, and none at all when it comes to health care issues.

       
  1. IM Doc

    I have just now looked at their membership application – correct me if I am wrong – but I see absolutely nothing on there about signing a pledge not to work with Medicare, Medicaid or private insurance companies.

    What I do see on the top of the page is a Latin motto – which translated means – Everything for the patient. There is also a call to oppose government-run medicine. After the debacle that Medcare Advantage plans and Obamacare have become – I join them in their concern there. I would also add to that – the corporate run medicine we have – but this group is not really the corporate type. Mostly private practitioners running their own businesses.

    Some of the things on their website I disagree with – but I can say the same if not more so about the AMA.

    https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/join-aaps-physician-member/

    It appears you can fill out that application online and submit your fees – and you are a member – no pledge signing required.

    I will ask my colleagues who have joined if they were asked to sign such a pledge. I have looked through the website at length – and noted no such verbiage anywhere. What I do see talked about quite a bit is their opposition to MOC (Maintenance of Certification). That is a very large issue in medicine these days – and is way beyond what I have time to discuss here. Let me just say – this physician who has seen the MOC system abused for decades for the financial benefits and corruption of the various Boards and the detriment to patient care – has nothing but praise for anyone standing up to expose the fraud that it is.

    As you quoted the Washington Post above – long gone are the days of their glory with things like Watergate. I hold them, the NYT, and the WSJ about to the same expectations of journalistic excellence these days as the National Enquirer, Rachel Maddow or Tucker Carlson. The fact checkers constantly employed by the Washington Post have recently been producing one howler after the other. Our entire media landscape is slowly becoming a tragedy.

    Just checked – 2 of the 5 friends I emailed this AM got back to me and have absolutely no idea what the Washington Post is talking about – they have never been asked to sign any kind of pledge like that. One of them has attended the national convention recently – and absolutely nothing like that was even mentioned.

    And both of them have lots of Medicare and private insurance patients. If the other 3 have anything different to add – I will update. I am unable to have the time to find your reference to the Washington Post in 2017 – but according to my friends, they appear to be inaccurate in their reporting.

     
haywood

IM Doc, your contributions here have been invaluable to me as this pandemic has progresses and the public health response regresses.

With that said, I can tell you from first hand experience that the AAPS is a group of hard-right cranks who prioritize profits over people’s health, overtly.

I worked on the political side of the ACA fight many years ago and I remember this outfit well. They were on every Tea Party bus slamming the ACA, an already conservative bill that aimed to further subsidize the insurance industry, as some sort of death-panel care rationing grandma-killing nightmare.

They’re real pieces of shit, even if they might have made some good points about the overreaches and failures of the American public health system during this crisis.

 
  1. IM Doc

    As I stated above – I was an ardent supporter of Obamacare. ARDENT.

    It has proven to be a disaster in almost every way. These “cranks” were right – and I get to live the tragedy of it all with my patients on a daily basis.

    At the same time as the advent of Obamacare – came the advent of all the GoFundMe pages, bake sales, carnivals, etc for communities to support “insured” patients who cannot afford their cancer and other care. If that is success – I hate to see what failure is.

    The Tea Partiers absolutely were “pieces of shit” – I hate people who turn our discourses into this kind of stuff. BUT they happened to absolutely correct in their predictions of how bad this is turning out for so many people.

    As for it being a “conservative” bill – I am always very interested in having people who proclaim that explain something to me –
    That bill was made law with Barack “Mr. Progressive” Obama as President, the House under absolutely dominating Dem control – and the Senate with a filibuster proof majority. How did that confluence of absolute Dem control pass a “conservative” law? – It is like the Dems now see what a disaster it is – and like to call it conservative – but that is not the way it went down. Please tell me – I am all ears – how did that happen?

    Had they done something that was really for the people – I would have been elated – M4All – etc – but that is not what was done with that complete Dem lock on the government – instead we have this nightmare.

    This “working class” Dem for one will never forgive them for it.

     
    1. Fiery Hunt

      I hear ya, Doc. Don’t let ’em get ya down,,,

      I don’t care what political strip people are…on any specific issue, I’m with whomever is looking out for the working/middle class. For example…with Dems re:abortion rights and with Republicans re: ACA.

      Anyone who still supports ACA and private insurance is absolutely NOT on the side of working/middle class people/patients.

IM Doc

About the deSantis article above – and his stance on the current COVID vaccines –

‘It’s about your health and whether you want that protection or not. It really doesn’t impact me or anyone else.’”

I am not sure that there could be a more fitting epitaph for this entire fiasco.

And it is the same false reasoning on both sides.

This is the exact way that most people think about vaccines – even today I am having this discussion over and over again with patients. I am vaccinated. Therefore, I will not have the virus, I cannot get sick – and I cannot spread the contagion.

And the reason this is in their minds this way is because this is true of most every other vaccine there is. But this is most definitely not true with non-sterilizing vaccines.

We have placed into our world a non-sterilizing vaccine which is completely different than what people are accustomed to. For public health and safety, Plan B must be initiated – yet no such plans are even on the horizon. Plan A of total freedom from infection and spread is not only unworkable – it is actually quite dangerous.

We have one third of our our society who feel that they are vaccinated and protected and who cares if others are not.

While the other third is cudgeling everyone else with vaccine mandates and passports with zero evidence that any such thing will work in an environment created by a non-sterilizing vaccine. But what does work are all the bang-on effects of social and economic meltdown. No benefit provided, but all the ongoing damage is happening and encouraged.

And then all the “deplorable” unvaccinated who threw up their hands long ago – most of him have very legitimate concerns about the vaccines – and absolutely no one addressing them. Instead, a constant barrage of belittling, health-care shaming, moral superiority condescending and now outright lying directed their way.

All the while, no one is pressing hard on Plan B consisting of masks, ventilation, vigorous testing, vigorous quarantine and so many other measures that are sorely needed right now. No one is having any kind of serious discussion with the people about life style changes and risk factor modification. No one.

And the PCPs of America are stuck in the big middle of this morass, patients getting madder by the day, with no guidance whatsoever. The big topic of the past 2 weeks has been boosters – coming up almost every visit. Not an official peep out of our health authorities for guidance. Just a mishmash of contradictions and off the wall talk.

I never dreamed such a hellscape would ever happen in this country. It is truly incredible.

 

lordkoos

I’m playing a gig this Saturday for a Seattle dance club, it will be the first I’ve done where all of the musicians (including the singers!) as well as the audience will be required to wear a mask. It’s a large space & hopefully it will be well ventilated. Although I have a few more bookings this year, it will probably end up being my last gig of 2021 the way things are trending.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Please be careful –

    About 10 days ago – I had to admit 2 members of a swing dancing band to the hospital. It was part of a larger superspreader event. Everyone in attendance had to show proof of vaccination – I understand about 80 were there – and yet we had 14 vaccinated breakthroughs from that event – with 2 of them – the band members – having to be admitted. So far everyone is OK. But those 2 and 2 of the others got really really sick.

    It was in a large ballroom. Lots of singing, drinking, instrument playing, and dancing. Masks were not required because they were all vaccinated. They all thought they were good because there was a vaccine mandate for entrance. They thought wrong.

    Please be careful and take care of yourself.

IM Doc

Three big differences. And remember the smallpox vaccine in 1905 was still in the Wild Wild West of pharmaceuticals – long before the FDA and CDC were even thought of. Read HG Wells TONO BUNGAY – or Sinclair Lewis ARROWSMITH.

1) The vaccine for smallpox had been around for decades. The side effects and complications were well known – by all providers and health authorities and the safety concerns were easily handled because of the familiarity. This is not the case with the COVID vaccines even now. I have just had yet another patient develop a DVT and seek treatment on TUE of this week after having his 2nd Moderna last week. Related? Who knows? – we have no idea what the exact safety issues are with these vaccines. We have educated guesses – but my personal experience so far with the CDC and VAERS and FDA have been they are trying to do all they can to minimize problems. I have very little faith in the validity of our current safety knowledge.

2) Smallpox is absolutely orders of magnitude more lethal than COVID. Smallpox outbreaks were just horrific in their death and morbidity counts back in the day. Despite all the panic porn, COVID remains a much different level of threat by orders of magnitude.

3) The vaccinations for smallpox were absolutely sterilizing – it ended with the person that minute. That is most definitely not the case with COVID vaccines – there is individual benefit ( how long that will last – who knows?) – but the public health “herd” benefit with these vaccines is very nebulous right now – and they may actually cause much more harm than benefit as we go along. We will see. There is also increasing evidence that at least some of the mutation pressure is happening in the vaccinated. This was NOT the case in smallpox vaccines and never was.

The difference between the two is overwhelming. It is easy to see for anyone with a background in vaccinology or infectious disease. We are however not listening to these experts – instead we are listening to Big Pharma and media and political shills with their own agendas that have nothing whatsoever to do with public health.

 
  1. Eustachedesaintpierre

    Just a thought – but isn’t it the case that boosters will always be a reactive measure, as the tweeking unless we get a steady state Covid, will always depend on the particular evolution of a new variant. If that is indeed the case we will I suppose be for at least the foreseeable future condemned to playing catch up, with perhaps the added risk of vaccine breakthroughs.

    I am I guess just wondering what force is actually running this shitshow – feel free to enlighten me.

     
    1. IM Doc

      Look how long it has taken us to get 50% of the country vaccinated – 8 months or so. Viruses move much quicker – especially one with this kind of turnover.

      We would be 3 steps behind at all times.

      I have never yet had a decent explanation of a very simple question I have – How is a booster toward the wild original virus spike protein going to do anything at this point – that virus is now extinct in the wild? If this was a vaccine that had the entire virus – that is a different story – but these vaccines are just to one small part….the part that changes all the time.

      I have never had anyone in any way shape or form in any academic center ever be able to answer that question. They turn into Elmer Fudd.

  1. IM Doc

    When we moved from the big city and now live in the fruited plain – I took the skills from my childhood and planted an orchard, built greenhouses, and started working with chickens again. Bees and honey. Mushroom racks. The whole enchilada. Dozens of fruit trees in the orchards. 4 large greenhouses now.

    We get all of our other protein from fishing and hunting – and we buy a fourth of a grass finished cow from our neighbor rancher at a much reduced price of ZERO dollars every 9 months or so. His family constantly helps us consume our eggs and other vegetables and fruit in return.

    Harvest time is here. Wife and I have been working hard with the kids – and we are now over 1000 cans of jams, salsa, marinara, pickles, mushrooms and other vegetables. We have filled 2 freezers with frozen fruit and we have not even started the apples yet. When done – we will be good for the year.

    About the only thing we buy from the grocery store is sugar and flour and some non-seasonal fruits like melons. We get all butter and milk from the farmer down the road.

    I have never felt so free – and we do not worry too much about the prices in the grocery store. There is however a price – a lot of work. But I am OK with that – I have not been as fit as I am since my 20s. It has been the best thing for me mentally too. And I am bound and determined to make sure my kids have these skills handed down to me from my family.They used them to survive the Great Depression and WW2. It will be up to the kids if they use them or not – but by God – they will know how. It does wonders for the soul to see them climbing trees and picking fruit – and tending to the chicken coops.

  1. lyman alpha blob

    I was poking around in a dusty old used bookstore recently and found an essay from Voltaire on smallpox inoculation. After today’s earlier discussion of the rona vaccine mandates and early 20th century smallpox vaccination mandates in links, I thought this might be of historical interest – Letter on Inoculation with Smallpox.

    Not a medical historian so maybe IM Doc can correct me if this is mistaken, but based on Voltaire’s take, the practice didn’t develop in the West by scientists, but as a form of folk medicine through empirical trials. Lots of snobbery about it at the time – evidently for some Europeans, inoculation was the “horse paste” of the 18th century. I’m sure Dr. “The Science” Fauci would have disapproved had he been alive.

    Also interesting is the supposed rationale – without inoculation smallpox could kill or disfigure young women whose parents were planning on selling them into harems. I wonder if some of the women would have rather had smallpox…

     
    1. jr

      Years ago in school I learned that it was slaves who introduced the practice to the West but this article indicates it was in use in the Near East as well. According to Wiki, the Chinese were doing it a long time too:

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3407399/

      “ I had from a servant of my own an account of its being practised in Africa. Enquiring of my Negro man, Onesimus, who is a pretty intelligent fellow” -Cotton Mather

       
    2. Gareth

      Several years ago, I was browsing a digital archive of newspapers from the 1770s to the 1790s and came across a few classified ads related to smallpox inoculation. One was for a doctor who was setting up shop after receiving training for it in Europe. The other two were for the same doctor. In the first, he was notifying residents that he was moving to another town, but that he would stop by periodically to offer inoculation. In the second, he apologized for considering leaving and stated that the residents had convinced him to stay. America had at least 125 years of experience with smallpox inoculation and vaccination before the court’s decision in 1905.

       
      1. Gareth

        I checked to see if I could link to those, but it is subscription only. Thankfully, LOC has a page from the Gazette of the United States in New York from 1789. In the middle column, there is a brief mention of a British doctor successfully applying the same techniques used to inoculate against smallpox to horses for one of their illnesses.

         
      2. begob

        Good review of the anti-vaccination case around 1800 – “The Creator stamped on man the divine image, but Jenner placed on him the mark of the beast”: https://publicdomainreview.org/essay/the-mark-of-the-beast-georgian-britains-anti-vaxxer-movement

        The same debate applied to the earlier practice of variolation, which is what Voltaire discusses – infection with a mild form of actual smallpox, rather than cowpox. Cotton Mather and the Puritans were in favour, relying on an unusually enlightened take on providence.

        Vaccination with cowpox was actually first practised by Benjamin Jesty, a farmer and citizen scientist, whose observations seemed to confirm folk wisdom about the immunity of milk maids:

        Some years before this [1805-7] he had lived at a farm in the neighbourhood of Cerne, in this County, (Dorset), and there he first practised vaccination on his own children. Fever ran high with his patients, and he called in Mr. Trowbridge the medical man at Cerne, (whom I full well remember in later years when he lived near that place,) and told him what he had done. Trowbridge said, “you have done a bold thing, but I will get you through it if I can” — treated it as fever and was successful. I should have said that old Jesty not being equipped with a lancet, performed the operation with a stocking needle!!

         
    3. IM Doc

      I would really need to dig deep into this article but the smallpox immunization has been around for centuries. Jenner was the first to do it with vaccination. The process before this was called variolation and my guess is that what is being referred to here.

      I will just say it took practice and apprenticeship to do the procedure correctly. One false move and well you could actually start an outbreak.

      They had gotten pretty good at it by the mid to late 1700s and this was ordered to be done on the troops by Washington in some battles.

Ian Perkins

a vaccine I only need to take once (possibly with a booster), like polio or measles, is sterilizing

Yes, but that’s the trouble when technical terms get into the mainstream. Polio, measles and smallpox vaccines certainly work, but vaccines or previous infections aren’t necessarily so good at preventing subsequent infections, only illnesses! From ‘Individuals cannot rely on COVID-19 herd immunity: Durable immunity to viral disease is limited to viruses with obligate viremic spread‘, linked to in the Atlantic article,
“Poliovirus vaccination provides insight into the nature of protective antiviral immunity. Intramuscular immunization with inactivated virus prevents paralytic disease but not GI infection, with repeat vaccination necessary to reduce shedding of infectious virus. Similarly, even natural respiratory infections with measles or variola (smallpox) viruses, famous for inducing life-long immunity to disease, do not prevent respiratory reinfection, which though asymptomatic and nontransmissible, can be detected by increased antiviral antibody titers [7,8].”

 
  1. IM Doc

    While these issues are true – I think it must be stated about SMALLPOX – it has been eradicated from the planet in the wild – may still be alive in freezers somewhere. And the others are so extremely rare that they are miniscule in their occurrence –

    I would also like to ask the writer of that article – after the statement above about the polio vaccines – What do you think the ORAL sugar cube form is for? Why is it that we give BOTH to patients?

     

RE: “We’re Asking the Impossible of Vaccines” [The Atlantic]. “Eventually, all discussions about sterilizing immunity become nerdy quibbles over semantics.” • Holy moley, if there were an Oscars for goal-post moving, this would be a top candidate. To my simple, layperson’s mind, a vaccine I only need to take once (possibly with a booster), like polio or measles, is sterilizing. A vaccine I have to keep taking, like a flu vaccine, is not. I wonder if of our experts would care to comment on this article, which, however motivated, seems designed to normalize the rapidly waning effiicacy of today’s Covid vaccines.


IM Doc

With regard to The Atlantic article about vaccination –

There is a highlighted sentence directly under the title of the article ( I am not a journalist – I am sure this sentence in the layout has a name – do not know what it is, though).

Complete protection against infection has long been hailed as the holy grail of vaccination. It might simply be unachievable.

The very instant I read that sentence – as a medical doctor and a medical historian – I know instantly that this person has no idea what they are talking about – and has not bothered to do the most basic of research in the topic.

One word –

SMALLPOX

It has been achieved – it is not unachievable. But it took a STERILIZING vaccine. And ON TOP OF THE VACCINE, all kinds of other efforts which were completely different based on the part of the world. The top priority – Truth being told to the population at all times. A concerted effort with non-compromised leaders and spokespeople. And to have the entire health system on board in an organized manner. Also, not a small amount of PR was required then, because the vaccinations left permanent scars on the skin. The authorities got out ahead in front of this issue – and did not wait until it detonated when people started noticing it and sharing it with friends. Furthermore, smallpox vaccination rates were nowhere near 100% – but when you have a sterilizing vaccine, it does not need to be so. Political and health leaders did absolutely no kind of shaming or belittling. The messaging was almost all positive and congratulatory. It is also important to realize that this eradication occurred in an era of mass media but long before we had the Internet and especially social media. I do not think we can even begin to overestimate the absolutely horrific effect social media has had on our response this time. Most patients I see every day literally want to throw their hands in the air – they have completely given up.

There is ZERO wild smallpox on the face of this planet today. ZERO. The only place it is left intact is purportedly in the freezers of viral labs at the CDC and in Russia. I am not even certain about that.

Polio is a very similar story, but is not completely eradicated from the planet – just a sliver is left. And one could argue the same about measles, mumps, and others that have been made so uncommon that young doctors would not recognize the symptoms if seen in the ER.

Coronaviruses are a completely and totally unique virus family in almost every way conceivable. The pox viruses are much more amenable to vaccination efforts. But that in no way means that science will never find a way to eradicate a coronavirus aided by vaccinatinon.

But ERADICATION via vaccination would require a STERILIZING vaccine. And that is not where we are today. The sooner our health agencies and media begin to level with the people and not put out this kind of article the better we will all be. I was gravely concerned when the messaging earlier this year was so misleading that it was giving people the idea that the vaccines were causing eradication. The mainstream narrative today saying this was never the case just 4 months ago is totally deluding itself just like with so many other issues. “Why we never said that – everyone always knew it was never going to prevent you from getting it” – all over the news today – is belied by the statement on my vaccination consent form right in front of me – THIS VACCINATION WAS GIVEN AN EUA for PREVENTION of COVID-19. Right there on the form. It was a classic case of miscontruing concepts without actually lying that misled the vast majority of my patients. Big Pharma is very very good at that.

I am of the firm belief, that after the Biden performance last night, unless an intense leveling is done with the American people about appropriate expectations and soon – there will be enormous political consequences for his administration. More than half the country thinks that forced vaccination of these NON-STERILIZING vaccines is going to end this pandemic. That is not the case at all. And I can see a future of a lot of disappointment and anger.

There is precedent for where we are today – the FLU shots. Also non-sterilizing. But nobody discusses the flu vaccination in terms of eradication – because it is simply impossible with non-sterilizing vaccines. Level with the people. They clearly understand the flu shot. They clearly get it – the flu shot will not eradicate the virus from earth – it will however make you less likely to get really sick – WHEN YOU GET THE FLU. And we have learned to live with the flu with the tens/hundreds of thousands of casualties every year. Until something much better comes for COVID, it is going to be a similar story.

Until we begin to treat the citizens of the world as adults, and not kids – and quit bamboozling – we are never going to have buy in from every group as has happened in the past.

My two cents.

 
  1. Ian Perkins

    Do smallpox vaccines completely prevent infections, or just transmissible infections? Polio vaccines prevent the latter, but don’t achieve the former entirely – which is somewhat academic, as they both work, but if we’re quibbling the use of words, “Complete protection against infection has long been hailed as the holy grail of vaccination. It might simply be unachievable” might be accurate.
    See my comment above – https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/09/200pm-water-cooler-9-10-2021.html#comment-3604595

     
    1. IM Doc

      I would suggest – that making statements such as that sentence are really misleading to everyone but those who have been schooled in virology and vaccinology. Those words mean something completely different to me than my patients. The difference between an “infection” and a “transmissible infection” is debating angels on a pinhead for most people.

      I get the feeling that they are realizing that the whole COVID vaccination story is getting shot through with holes – and they are pulling at straws.

      I just had my front desk person read this article. A college graduate in English. She did not understand it the way it is being presented. Again – this is common BIG PHARMA dissembling.

       
    2. IM Doc

      It seems to me the argument here that most people get that the writer is trying to convey – is OH well – the COVID vaccine is not working out as well as we would hoped – but no big deal – neither did any other, when you really think about it and use arcane terms.

      Nothing could be further from the truth –
      When is the last time I saw a polio infection or a transmissable polio infection? NEVER
      When is the last time I saw a smallpox infection or a transmissable smallpox infection? NEVER
      I can go on with measles mumps, etc.

      When is the last time I saw a COVID infection or a transmissable COVID infection – well I have seen 8 this AM – all in vaccinated patients.

      And most people get that – and look sideways at articles like this trying to explain this away via word games.

tim

Covis19#

I would like to ask GM why Denmark with 76% overall vaccination rate and i think 86-87% for 12-110 year old people aren’t experiencing these dramatic increases.

It is like we are on a different planet. All restrictions have been lifted, people go to music festivals with +15.000 spectators and still the number of new cases pr. day is stable at a very low rate yesterday it was 458 cases if I remember correctly

 
  1. Basil Pesto

    yeah, a friend of mine lives in CPH. He agrees with a lot of what I say about Covid but at the same time, he’s pretty bullish about how Denmark is doing right now. I haven’t had a close look myself, but I also don’t know when their vaccination campaign started. I gather they’ve been doing some other things throughout the pandemic pretty well too.

     
  2. IM Doc

    I have found this very interesting as well.

    I was reading a Twitter feed last night about this very issue ( unfortunately I cannot currently find it – will keep looking ). The tweets were written by a US epidemiologist lamenting the fact that all the non-vaccine measure that have been done in Denmark have been overwhelmingly positive. They were organized. They were truthful and transparent from Day 1. They have apparently early on actually fired a few Health Officials who were scaremongering and inappropriate. They made their vaccination approach very team oriented and apparently very positive. Those were the things I recall. There were others. And basically the point was made that they took their playbook directly from the USA approach to both polio and smallpox. Another sentiment expressed was they had no intention of emulating the current USA approach to COVID.

    I am not sure any of those things could be done successfully here in the USA in our current environment. Denmark is not the USA.

    Please note that forced vaccine mandates were not part of the Denmark plan at all. Calling others unclean, unmasked, etc. was not part of the plan. And had they done vaccine mandates – nothing like this link would ever have been allowed – https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1436357805041242125

    That one link right there tells me all I need to know. The USA is a completely un-serious country. I just cannot believe our leaders – it is like they are purposely sabotaging their credibility and our health efforts on purpose in all possible ways they can.

LilD

Sweetgreens went too far, but the link between nutrition and health is very strong. It’s not just BMI, it’s junk vs nutrients…

For evidence based examples
https://nutritionfacts.org/book/how-not-to-die/

I don’t think it’s too strong to say that if most of the world adopted a whole food plant based diet, health outcomes would be much better. And, less pressure on the environment by reducing the industrial food complex.

 
  1. IM Doc

    More than a year ago, I wanted to get my nurses and office staff on some kind of project in the office that would actually be constructive and positive in their work on the pandemic. You have no idea, but the amount of screaming and yelling directed at doctors and their staffs is at an all time high. And much worse now with all the breakthroughs.

    We all decided to double down on diabetes because that is the biggest single risk factor for covid severity in everyone other than age. And you cannot really fix that.

    And they did with gusto. Diet education. Exercise. Diabetic education. Fine tuning meds. Praising patients without ceasing. A marked increase in follow up calls.

    Our average a1c reading in August 2020 was 8.1.

    August 2021 that average a1c was 6.9.

    I could not be more proud of my staff and their intense efforts to do something anything positive for covid. It is important for all hard workers to have positive success and the feeling of contributing.

    I have always felt with health issues that carrots work much better than sticks. It is also beyond me that the CDC has not been all over this issue on a national basis since it was known in the very beginning. I have no words.

  1. Vandemonian

    IM Doc, I suspect that CDC’s reluctance to promote your approach is related to the absence of a market based impact. Looks like you and your team forgot to put medications front and centre of your campaign – where’s the benefit in that? In fact, your patients may have reduced their medication use overall. Did you track that?

     
    1. newcatty

      Another note of appreciation for IM Doc’s contributions to all that is knowledgeable, fair, kind and honorable in his profession. Not only are your patients fortunate to have you as their Doc, but your staff is fortunate to have you as their “boss”.

       
    2. IM Doc

      That is the one aspect of this whole operation totally in my purview – I do not have exact numbers – but the med use, especially insulin, is down as well. Most people do not realize actually how toxic insulin is. It is so much better for the body to diet and exercise and lose weight than to pump it full of insulin.

      By the way, there are all kinds of videos of Dr. Fauci himself lauding this “eat well, sleep well and exercise” approach to infectious disease avoidance and overall general health. Something happened to him at the beginning of COVID – and I have not heard him mention it once. He literally talked about it all the time preCOVID. I have heard him talk in person multiple times – and he used to just dwell on this. Eat well, exercise, etc.

      I am certain there are many others – but this is just one example from MAY 2019.

      Go to about the 16:50 mark – and it lasts about a minute. He was asked if he would wear a mask when ill – and you can hear his answer…….

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-05-22/david-rubenstein-show-anthony-fauci-video


Louis Fyne

now if anyone in the Commentariat wants a gold star, compare/contrast with the polio vaccine rollout…..particularly if one has first-hand anecdotes

 
  1. IM Doc

    Right off the bat – the first hand anecdote I do not want to have repeated is this right here –

    https://www.nytimes.com/1955/05/05/archives/bulbar-polio-kills-doctors-grandson.html

    That is the best link I could find to the story right now. But it is very important nonetheless. Dr. Alton Oschner was the closest thing to someone in stature in the 1950s as Dr. Koop was in the 1980s. He thought it best to vaccinate his 2 grandchildren on TV in New Orleans for all to see how safe it was. The debacle that was about to unfurl in the country was known as the Cutter Event. That particular vaccine ended up being very problematic and killed thousands of kids all over America – maiming many more. There were those in the federal health apparatus that were deeply concerned beforehand – but were ignored. It is a blemish on public health for all time.

    Unfortunately, one of the children was dead within weeks, the other was maimed with polio the rest of her life.

    I do not believe in any way shape or form that enough safety data is known for the COVID vaccination of our children in what for them is a very low risk disease process. There are studies now coming down, especially in boys, that COVID vaccine risk may be higher than COVID risk. Let me put it this way, with conviction, my sons will not be vaccinated whatsoever until much further safety and efficacy data is known. As in absolutely not. With the oncoming mandates, I am concerned it will be no time before this is mandated for the kids and I see, just like with the vaccines for adults this past winter, legions of physicians vaccinating their kids on Facebook. It is called stupid human tricks. I simply cannot comprehend this whole impulse. It has the potential to backfire “bigly”.

     
    1. GM

      There are studies now coming down, especially in boys, that COVID vaccine risk may be higher than COVID risk

      The COVID risk is hidden.

      The immune system damage incurred is not visible in kids because they are kids, but is still very real. T-cells are a limited resource (we don’t really have a thymus past a certain age), and this virus is triggering massive overstimulation, dysregulation, exhaustion, accelerated aging.

      Problem is that this will be conclusively proven only when 60 years from now it turns out their life expectancy is 70 instead of 80 (and that assumes this infection will be their first and last, while under current policies it will be the first of many, and they will definitely not live to 70).

      Of course that does not mean that the vaccine should have been rushed the way it has been, but it has to be kept in mind.

       
      1. IM Doc

        I have learned the hard way to never trust Big Pharma with anything. The fact that this vaccine program was handed over to them and not some other agency ( which we really do not have ) without all the baggage is the problem for me. I will NOT trust Big Pharma or anything they say with the lives of my kids. Anything that gets put into my kids in any way has to have years of use outside in the real world. They are fully vaccinated with everything else with a few exceptions because I trust the experience garnered over the years. I have too many scars from multitudes of patients over the years that have learned this lesson the hard way.

        It is one thing to have a drug reaction that is unexpected. It is another thing entirely to have drug reactions and problems that were known by Big Pharma and covered up or hidden during the research phase. And they have made a habit of this repeatedly. How many drugs have been taken off the market very rapidly – only to find out they knew there was a problem?

        I do not think I am alone in this assessment – not by a long shot. Among medical people or the public. The behavior and events this year have done nothing but fuel the concerns. I hear about it every day.

dcrane

Over at (Steve) Bannons War Room on Rumble the allegation is made that we’re facing a pandemic of the censored, not one the unvaccinated. Dr. Robert Malone and a couple of other doctors are interviewed about the systemic forces being applied to stop doctors from treating covid early and aggressively with a wide range of repurposed drugs and other measures, and to stop the actual transmission of information on the success of such measures via the scientific literature as well as the internet. Note that Malone (who is himself vaccinated) emphasizes that these early treatments are not intended to compete with or replace vaccination, but should be applied alongside vaccination. These doctors claim that many thousands of people have died needlessly because the system would not treat them until they were well advanced in their illnesses.

I see little from Biden’s speech annotated above to suggest he cares about this.

https://rumble.com/vmgj15-episode-1257-from-rome-doctors-against-madness.html

(Yes, you have to ignore the overboard theme song about the CCP that goes with all episodes…)

 
  1. GM

    Dr. Robert Malone and a couple of other doctors are interviewed about the systemic forces being applied to stop doctors from treating covid early and aggressively with a wide range of repurposed drugs and other measures, and to stop the actual transmission of information on the success of such measures via the scientific literature as well as the internet.

    COVID is treated with repurposed drugs right now — dexamethasone and other steroids used to suppress the overstimulated immune system are exactly that.

     
    1. IM Doc

      And they shamed doctors for months for using dexamethasone for COVID. During the big problems in MAR/APR of 2020. In my hospital, we were absolutely forbidden to do so. It is ridiculous – because that is the exact same drug class used in all kinds of sepsis syndromes. But NOPE – did not happen. Until pulmonary/critical care physicians all over the country just started doing it anyway. The success made them back down. A lesson that these overlords are determined not to repeat with any others.

       
      1. GM

        My understanding is that there was a good reason at least for that — people got damaged from being pumped with too much steroids during the SARS-1 epidemic back in 2003 (the post-SARS syndrome is primarily due to the virus, but some aspects of it were because of the steroids too). Thus the reluctance to use them initially.

        Unfortunately, the death toll in the first wave would have been 40% of what it was had they just applied them from the start…

        P.S. This is actually bad news for a different reason — even I myself have on numerous occasions noted that the SARS-1 CFR might be lower today with modern treatment, say, 5%, not 10%. But more recently I realized that we lowered the SARS-2 CFR by going back to the SARS-1 treatment, i.e. SARS-1 was indeed that bad. Which is not good news for the future, if SARS-2 keeps evolving towards higher virulence — there is plenty of room for that in the evolutionary space…

Re: Biden's mandate (and patience wearing thin, etc.)
IM Doc

A primary care office can at times be a gauge for the nation.

Based on what has already been yelled at me on Friday and now today, this has already failed. This has made many Dems in my practice absolutely furious. I cannot remember a political speech that has garnered as much discussion in my office – but pretty much everyone was talking about it – and not in a good way.

I really get the idea that the only groups where this is finding favor are the very small Twitter mob, some of the more vocal millenial liberal groups, and the news media. My older than 40 crowd, liberal or conservative, have recoiled in disdain. Especially those alive during the polio and smallpox vaccine efforts.

An elderly Dem asked me today – paraphrased – “Can you point to any time when Eisenhower, Kennedy, or LBJ threatened every worker in America with being fired during polio/smallpox? No you cannot – because they did not. They kept it positive. They made it popular. They turned it into a civic duty. They criticized no one. And the undermining of governors in the way he did – just forget about it……He is really not the paragon of virtue to do this anyway.” And that man is a big Dem donor and a former Dem officeholder.

My initial impression is that this is not going well with a huge chunk of the American people – especially older ones – and uniquely very unpopular with Blacks and Latinos.


  1. IM Doc

    This was about 2 weeks ago – https://gov.idaho.gov/pressrelease/gov-little-activates-national-guard-again-directs-hundreds-of-new-medical-personnel-to-help-idaho-hospitals-overwhelmed-with-unvaccinated-covid-19-patients/

    I would like to make sure everyone knows – COVID itself is a huge part of this problem. But so is the fact that nurses and hospital staff have been walking off the job all over America. And this was before the vaccine mandates.

    The hospital I work in is literally crippled at this moment.

    The entire vaccine mandate executive order from Biden is being done through OSHA. I have begun to pray daily that someone in OSHA has the sense to make this not so bad and include both natural immunity or weekly testing as an alternative to forced vaccines. That would actually make it doable. Furthermore, I would have little if any problems medically or morally with such a plan. I know for sure many of my HCW patients who are unvaccinated would stay in those cases. And it has the benefit of making sense medically.

    The only thing that would hold this back at this point is those political actors determined to stick it to the unvaccinated. And given what I am seeing, they may very well prevail. Tragedy will ensue – not just in our hospitals, but also schools and businesses. I have many many business owners as patients now quaking in their boots because they know they will not only have no staff – they will have no customers. People getting fired tend to hold on to every dollar.

    We all should be praying for such wisdom right now – or our hospitals and nursing homes are going to crater.

Lee

“… include both natural immunity or weekly testing as an alternative to forced vaccines.”

Please correct me if I’m wrong.

It is my understanding that antibodies from vaccination and infections wane and become undetectable after a few months and that if there is long term protection then it resides elsewhere in the immune system but is not measurable.

Also, assuming high prevalence of infection, since the vaccinated and unvaccinated can both test positive for the virus and are contagious, I would imagine a considerable portion of the population at any given time will be, regardless of their immune status, subject to quarantine.

On the upside, vaccines reducing hospitalizations in understaffed facilities is fortuitous. Ever the optimist, me.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Vaccination immunity and infection immunity are likely going to wane over time. It appears that natural immunity is going to wane much more slowly. Although we are way too early in this to make any firm conclusions.

    You have no idea what will happen to our nursing homes and many hospitals if the vaccine mandate goes through. Even losing 5% of the staff that is still there will be a disaster. At that point, it will be very difficult to deliver adequate care to anyone.

    So far the vaccines have been reducing hospitalizations, however, I have already admitted 3 vaccinated patients to the hospital this week, and it is only Tuesday. I have admitted 5 unvaccinated patients. My gut feeling is this is slowly but surely offering less and less protection as well. I am only counting the actual COVID patients. There are others in the hospital with something else that turn out to have positive COVID tests. It is rare to see any of these people get really sick.

    I think we are going to have to compromise here on these mandates – I firmly believe it is the only way that we are going to not have a disaster in our health care system. Vaccination, natural immunity, or frequent testing – makes sense and will not cause the walk outs.

      1. Brian Beijer

        Vaccination, natural immunity, or frequent testing – makes sense and will not cause the walk outs.

        I don’t quite understand. Shouldn’t this read “Vaccination, natural immunity AND frequent testing – makes sense and will not cause the walk outs”? I mean, we’ve already well established that the vaccinated are almost as likey to transmit the Corona virus as the unvaccinated. If we’re insisting that everyone return to work and not taking other precautionary measures; shouldn’t everyone be tested weekly?

         
  1. Sawdust

    Is there a way to demonstrate natural immunity on its own? As I understand it, you (hopefully) only get a positive test result if you are currently infected with Covid. What if there’s a pretty good chance that you’ve already had it but never got tested?

     
    1. IM Doc

      You can be checked for IgG antibodies to SARS Cov2 – and this has been very highly correlative with patients I have in my practice with known POS PCR testing in the past. If the IgG are positive, you have already been infected. If negative, things are a bit less clear.

      Both Qwest and LabCorp offer a test known at Tcell COVID or somesuch. Most employers are demanding this as well to demonstrate natural immunity. This is all new just in the past few weeks at least in my area. To be honest, I have not looked into the efficacy of these tests. They may be much better at determining natural immunity than IgG tests are. I just do not know – I have not had a lot of time lately for research.

      That is on my list of things to do this week – do a deep dive into the science and numbers on these tests being offered. I have a feeling this is going to become a very important issue very quickly.

IM Doc

I would dare anyone to follow in my steps every day and try to explain all of this contradictory information to patients. Yesterday, it was this paper where no one needs a booster. Friday before, it was only booster the Pfizer. Thursday, it was everyone needs a booster right now this minute.

I have many patients who are very bright, who know how to read scientific studies, and who have very appropriate and often very piercing questions. Many of them have the papers in hand with yellow highlighted statistics.

And they have every right to ask questions. I just have no way of telling them what the correct answers are.

As a veteran of other pandemics like AIDS, I can assure you this level of national attention was never focused on all the conflicting data and papers that were coming out daily in that era. Never in a million years. All of this was debated vehemently behind closed doors in medicine and public health. It was only when consensus about validity was reached that things made it out to the public. Often, many studies with very dramatic conclusions were found to be deeply flawed when we were able to hash them out with one another first outside of the public eye. They never made it to primetime news.

Somehow, I think that was a much better system. The effects of social media and instant distribution of medical papers to the entire world has really caused much much confusion and angst. I view it as one of the main contributors to the confidence problem we have today. I see tweets and web posts daily from this or that expert – making very scary statements about this or that table of numbers – with really no evidence or statistical power for their assertions. It literally scares people to death.

I can tell you without hesitation that the past two weeks, confusion and chaos has reigned supreme about these boosters with my patients. They often show me the same MD on their Twitter feed saying two different contradictory things within 24 hours of one another. I see no one in charge at the federal level steering the ship. I see a hundred minions with a hundred agendas all over the place spinning things their way. The longer this ineffectual leadership is allowed – the more confusion it generates. That is why I comment here – trying to do my efforts to tell the truth the way I see it – hoping I can decrease the angst – but I have often thought that maybe I am adding to the chaos as well.

Never thought I would ever see this in my country.


GM

As a veteran of other pandemics like AIDS, I can assure you this level of national attention was never focused on all the conflicting data and papers that were coming out daily in that era. Never in a million years. All of this was debated vehemently behind closed doors in medicine and public health. It was only when consensus about validity was reached that things made it out to the public. Often, many studies with very dramatic conclusions were found to be deeply flawed when we were able to hash them out with one another first outside of the public eye. They never made it to primetime news.

I’m not so sure about this in this case.

AIDS was a relatively slow moving pandemic. It still demanded quick action, but on the scale of months and years.

With COVID we are talking hours and days because if things are left to their own, it will infect nearly everyone within a few months (it has done that already in a few places with very young populations that allow the damage to be tolerated for long enough to get to that point).

If it was left to the “scientific community” to hammer it out between themselves, everyone would have indeed gotten infected long ago.

That is what the current “consensus” is anyway, in case people have not noticed. The big shot senior-level scientists are going along with the program, for completely non-scientific reasons, and are giving interviews about how we have to “learn to live with the virus” and how everyone will get infected multiple times. Some are even going as far as saying that this was always known from the beginning.

If anything, it is the availability of things like Twitter that has allowed people to find the correct relevant information in real time. Which would not have been the case if there was the filter of the “scientific community”.

Remember that WHO “Fact check: COVID is NOT airborne” tweet? Well, it has been that sort of thing from the beginning.

How did regular people know that the pandemic is starting and it will be very serious? From social media, already in late 2019 and in early January 2020. The other key source of near-real-time information has been preprints. Not from official channels.

When and where did every relevant development after the beginning of the pandemic become apparent? Long before it was noticed by the “scientific community” as a whole and mostly on Twitter — people in the affected areas noticed things and shared them, and those who followed the right sources of information took notice. Reinfections in Iran, second wave in Manaus, second wave in South Africa, B.1.1.7/Alpha appearing in England, the appearance of Delta (the start of the second wave was pointed by a few independent Indian researchers on Twitter in mid-February, that Delta is a beast first became apparent by statistical analysis from a scientist in Belgium posted on Twitter already in April, etc.), and many others. B.1.621/Mu was first noticed in a preprint. Etc.

The “scientific community” has been soundly asleep on all such occasions, only awakening to record the damage long after it’s too late to stop it.

People know COVID is airborne only because of social media, if it was left to the authorities, they would be herded into unsafe classrooms and workplaces without that knowledge. They still have been herded that way but at least the information is available out there.

So yes, we do have the problem of social media drowning people in misinformation. But at least with social media there is also correct relevant info to be found within the general stream of noise. Without it and with the usual gatekeepers, we would not even have that…

 
  1. IM Doc

    I would add argue that in the AIDS pandemic, we had a much more functional CDC and a completely different FDA. There were all kinds of hiccups – but nothing like what we are witnessing today.

    There are a lot of good Twitter feeds out there today. They are literally drowned out by the minions of those whose main goal is clearly either panic porn or complete dismissal of the problem. People who do not really understand medical statistics and epidemiology are having a field day scaring people to death.

    I am now witnessing on Twitter the literal flaying alive of a doctor named John Mandrola. A cardiologist – who has dared to put his name on a paper concerning the incidence of vaccine-induced myocarditis in kids. Minions of Twitter folks are threatening him with his license, calling him all kinds of names and doing all possible to destroy his reputation. Interestingly, the paper he is on has found the incidence to be in exactly the same ball park as all the other papers. That is his sin. The fact that it is right on target with other papers does not matter to the Twitter mob – he has an Internet following, he has spoken against the narrative, he must be destroyed. Non-medical people reading this stuff are just overwhelmed with dissonance and all kinds of misinformation presented in very inappropriately emotional ways. This is not even the tenth time this year I have seen similar things occur. It is my absolute belief that because of this type of thing, Twitter and Facebook have been far more damaging than anything good that has come of them.

    As far as cable news, we did not have a death count ticker on the chryons for months on end during the AIDS epidemic either. Right in front of Rachel Maddow and Tucker Carlson with gleams in their eyes. That ghoulishness has set the emotional stage for so much of what has happened.

    And as far as the papers coming out daily – I long ago have tried to tune it all out. But last week, I saw a paper from the ID dept at a major US univ discussing the fact that the COVID virus has run out of places to mutate. All is well. This is almost over – SARS COV2 is out of its bag of tricks.
    Followed the next day by a paper from an equally excellent place stating these mutations could go on for eternity. As an MD after looking at both, it is easy to tell they are both garbage. But they were online and on Twitter and being hotly debated by people all over this country. They are papers – THEY ARE SCIENCE – THEY ARE GOSPEL TRUTH – when nothing could be further from the truth – when you have some experience with garbage papers all your life. The average Twitter user has no clue what to even look for. I have found most of the time they are arguing over headlines.

    During the AIDS pandemic, there was no Internet. We discussed the important papers of the day and had imminent visitors, and our own faculty helping us duke it out. It was a slower pandemic as you say – but I wonder how much of that “slower” has to do with the reporting of it as well. It was certainly not slower in the rate of death certificates for me personally.

    I will always contend that the AIDS media and public health environment in the 80s and 90s had its problems – but was much more sane – and did not cause near the problems among citizens as this morass is today. I deal with it every day of my life.

     
  2. IM Doc

    I forgot to add one more thing. And ask the other commenters if they have a different experience….

    Anyone old enough to be alive in the AIDS epidemic – Did you ever hear Johnny Carson mocking AIDS patients or laughing about AIDS deaths? I sure did not. That would have been considered a career killer back then.

    But look what happened this week. I sure do not watch this show – and I just happened to find out about this today because it was being replayed.

    Correct me if I am incorrect – but he is talking about Florida COVID deaths – and lamenting the fact that there will be 50000 orphaned ferrets. Funny. Real funny. On national TV – ABC.

    I cannot remember anyone on national TV making fun of all the death going on in NYC in MAR and APR of last year. Maybe I did not see it – but it would have surely made the zeitgeist if present. Why is it OK to make jokes about COVID victims now? Or is it just funny because he is “owning” Southern rubes? Who cares?

    I cannot even believe this man still has a job after that kind of thing. But that is yet another example of how mass media and social media memes are completely debasing our feelings and our response to this entire situation. And explicitly giving large swaths of our population permission to actively denigrate the unclean and unwashed. I find the whole thing deeply alarming.

     
    1. Tom Stone

      IM Doc, there were people who called AIDS God’s Judgement on homosexuals and there was shunning of AIDS caretakers in the workplace, but there was nothing like what is going on now.
      This is horrifying to anyone with an ounce of decency and it is being encouraged by truly evil people.

       
      1. IM Doc

        Yes indeed Mr. Stone.

        I spent many nights as an intern watching people die who had been tormented by those you describe. And karma was right there watching with me.

        Interestingly, as she often does, karma paid a visit to many of those tormenters. Sometimes very immediately as in Jimmy Swaggart. Sometimes, karma takes her time. Look at Jerry Falwell – and how just recently karma revealed that he raised one of the most horrible human beings in modern pop culture exposing him for all the world to see.

        Karma is whimsical. But I cannot help but think she is waiting in the wings thinking of next moves that she will one day spring on people like Mr. Kimmel.

        She never misses.

        I have learned as I have become older to just sit back and watch karma do her work. It takes so much anguish off my mind and soul.

IM Doc

Never thought it would be a blue state where this happened first – but I feel we should be getting used to this.

That is a temporary restraining order against the State of New York. They are at this time not allowed to follow through with the state vaccine mandate for health care workers apparently until further notice.

I think there are lots of responsible people out there in health care who realize just what a complete disaster this mandate plan would be for staffing. It is not a guess, I know that many of these legislators and judges are hearing some back channel warnings – maybe even from their own primary care docs.

Look right here. This is the official press release from the American Hospital Association from Friday Morning – the day after Biden released his plan. Interesting to read through this – they admit in the first half that they are all for the mandates, but spend the last half describing what a disaster they would be and that they need to work together to come up with some other workable way. Firing people is not going to be too helpful right now.

We live in fascinating times.


voteforno6

We live in a society where everything is politicized, and with something as big as a pandemic, it’s no surprise that this is, too. I’m sure a lot of people can remember having to get vaccinated before being allowed to attend school, or join the military. Talk to people about the polio vaccinations, and they’ll tell you there wasn’t nearly this much pushback. For religious people to complain about these mandates, well, it comes off as being rather hypocritical on their part, to be complaining about someone else forcing their beliefs on them. So, there may very well be some staffing issues because of these mandates, but the other side of that is there is a lot of support for them as well. Besides, how much can we trust a health care provider who won’t undergo certain medical treatments themselves, due to religious beliefs? Are these same beliefs affecting the treatment that they provide to others?

 
  1. rowlf

    Has any other vaccine been fast tracked like the Covid 19 vaccines? Has the FDA a history of approving products that had to be removed from use later on?

    Come to think of it, what are the Covid 19 vaccination rates at the CDC and the FDA? 99%? Are they leading from the front?

     
  2. IM Doc

    I cannot recall a single patient saying a word about aborted fetuses as being the cause of their hesitancy.

    I have however – had large numbers of 20-30 year old female CNAs and other staff in my office very worried about losing fertility. Their being fired would be the proximate cause of hospital failure – this is THE group of concern. This is not a religious issue – this is a natural human impulse – to have kids.

    I have no idea if this is a real concern or not – what I do know for certain is this has been being discussed on social media from the beginning. This has been all over the Internet for months. When the health officials have made it a habit of lying, manipulating, and dissembling about so much else, I cannot blame these people in the least for their concerns.

    The federal health officials have completely ignored this problem from day one. They have acted like it does not exist. I have been at a conference back in April with FDA officials where a physician went out of their way to warn them this was happening…..their response – “We do not have the time to deal with conspiracy theories.” And here we are. Complete and total incompetence. I did not find it ironic at all that during the very same week that the mandate program was announced, suddenly in the national media were stories about trials starting to investigate fertility. Too little too late. AND MORE IMPORTANTLY – announcing those trials has the side effect of making all these young women feel “You know – there may be something to this after all.” I have never seen such complete incompetence in my life. Such complete ignorance of primal human desires to have kids.

    Since you brought up past pandemics – it is important to note the smallpox campaign. Very early on, it was brought to political leaders’ attention that the vaccine would cause a scar on every patient and that may cause hesitancy. Did they try to hide it? Did they mock Americans for being conspiracy theorists? Did they call people stupid? Did they ban people from the media? HELL NO. That instant, they got on the media and told every single American this would happen – and it would be a “badge of honor”. And we all know the end of this story.

    So many lessons have been learned by our public health folks in the past. And this current generation has decided that the best course of action is to flush all those lessons right down the stool – or worse, they have shat all over them.

    I find it incredible how many people are BLAMING the great unwashed and dirty throng of unvaccinated. That is morally incorrect in many cases given the abysmal nature of how this has all been handled. The real blame belongs with the total incompetence of our politicians, the media, and our health officials.


temporaryreality: (Default)
 

Eric Topol Discusses Covid Vaccines Not Meeting Expectations, Breakthrough Cases Sicker

Posted on August 9, 2021 by 

It looks as if conventional wisdom on the Covid vaccines has run head first into some ugly realities. Eric Topol, formerly a “Get vaccinated, problem solved” cheerleader, grapples out loud with troubling data about Covid deaths and breakthrough cases with a serious journalist, David Wallace-Wells of New York Magazine. The short version is that both measures are much worse than expected and the trajectory bodes ill.

We’ll go through many of the bad trends Topol and Wallace-Wells identify, including one we hadn’t wanted to believe when IM Doc started telling us of it privately via e-mail weeks ago, and presented in comments yesterday: that his breakthrough cases have been typically sicker than those among the unvaccinated. Topol is seeing the same thing and his population isn’t from IM Doc’s part of the world.

Topol may have fallen for orthodox thinking, but sits on the Scripps Research board as the founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute , he has tremendous clout and can’t be dismissed, both by virtue of his reputation and because the data he and Wallace-Wells discuss speaks for itself. But the officialdom has bet so heavily on magical vaccines being the solution for Covid that the denialism is likely to remain strong and get even uglier.

As we say often here, it would be better if we were wrong, but it appears we haven’t been. And I don’t like sounding triumhpalist; I felt nauseous during September 2008 when just about everything we said about the credit, mortgage and derivative markets in 2007 and 2008 was proven correct, and then some.

However, Topol and Wallace-Wells substantiate what we and our experts, IM Doc, GM, KLG and Iganacio have been saying from early on: the vaccines were overhyped. For starters, there was no basis for believing a vaccine for a coronavirus would produce immunity that lasted more than months to at most a year. While the vaccines were under development, data from Imperial College indicated that the rate of decline in neutralizing antibodies from contracting Covid provided immunity on the order of six to eight months. A vaccine might produce more durable immunity, but not vastly so. Plus no expert expected a vaccine for a respiratory virus to confer sterilizing immunity.

Yet not only did our putative leaders tell outrageous howlers, with both the CDC’s Rochelle Walensky and Biden repeatedly and falsely stating that if you got vaccinated, you would not get Covid (“If you’re vaccinated, you’re protected”), they also committed the cardinal sin of betting on their own PR. They treated vaccines as the one-stop answer to the Covid problem.

And not only did they actively discourage the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions like masking and social distancing (can’t harsh the mellow of convention sponsors and holiday makers) but they also crippled an already slipshod Covid data gathering system by telling public health officials not to collect data on breakthrough cases among the vaccinated. So now we have to rely on figures from less incompetent countries like Israel, and Topol is forced to make back-of-the-envelope computations.

Some of the grim news from Too Many People Are Dying Right Now:

Lower reduction in mortality than expected. Wallace-Wells starts with the expected Covid vaccine death reduction of 90% or at least, per another expert, 75%. That means Covid fatalities should be 25% or lower relative to last year…which is not where we are. Instead, from Wallace-Wells:

But at the national level, at least for the moment, the reduction of mortality risk seems to be considerably smaller. In the worst of the winter surge, the country was registering 250,000 new cases per day; at its peak, that surge was killing roughly 3,000 Americans each day (often a bit above, but with a few dips below). Today, we have a bit more than 100,000 new cases each day, though the numbers are still rising as part of the Delta wave. If we had reduced mortality risk by 75 percent, that would mean about 300 daily deaths. If we had reduced it by 90 percent, it would mean 120. Instead, in our seven-day average, we just passed 500.

Things may be even worse than that, though. In general, epidemiologists expect a lag of a week or two, perhaps more, between case peaks and death peaks… comparing case data from even one week ago with today’s death data reveals an even grimmer picture: about 75,000 cases per day then yielding the current average of 500 deaths, suggesting the mortality rate had fallen by less than half since winter. If you work from two-week-old data, it suggests that the mortality rate had hardly fallen at all. Applying the winter ratio to the case load from July 24 would predict an average of 600 daily deaths. On Friday, there were 763.

And Topol:

Just looking at the U.K. and Israel, which had been our guideposts, I thought we would keep the hospitalizations pretty darn low — maybe a fourth of where we’d been in prior waves. And deaths 10 percent of prior waves. But we’re not doing that at all. If you look at the log charts of the U.S. and the U.K, you’re starting to see some real separation for death. It’s certainly going in the wrong direction, and it had been tracking incredibly closely, until recently.

Weaker effectiveness of vaccines. The bold is Wallace-Wells, per the original, and Topol, in regular type, in response:

What I just can’t understand is why all three things are all moving up together so rapidly. Given everything we’ve seen in other countries and everything we think we know about the vaccines, even if cases rose dramatically, we’d expect much lower rates of hospitalization and death. But we’re not.

It’s like we didn’t have vaccines. Or worse. I was just putting this talk together and I made the same observation. I’m looking at the four waves, and, as you know, in the monster wave, we got to 250,000 cases per day. And at that time we had 120,000 plus hospitalizations [per day]. About half. What’s amazing is, we’re at about 120,000 cases now, and we’re over 60,000 hospitalizations.

It’s the same ratio.

Yeah. So when I look at that, I say, what happened to the vaccines?

Topol also pointed out these results were all that much attributable to low vaccination rates in certain states. Florida, for instance, is the standout mortality state yet is has an average, not low, vaccination rate. Los Angeles County, an early and continuing high infection/death area, has a higher vaccination rate than the US overall. He returns to that issue later:

I mean, one of the worst signals that I’ve seen is San Francisco. San Francisco is like Vermont, they’re even a little higher than Vermont for fully vaccinated — it’s 70 percent of the population of San Francisco county and it’s going through a very substantial hospitalization spike, unlike Vermont.

We flagged this indicator of apparent limited vaccine impact last month (hat tip GM). Admittedly only one week of data, but it showed infection rates were proportional to vaccination rates, implying that the vaccinations weren’t reducing the case count.

 

Severity of breakthrough cases From Topol:

What I’m hearing — and I’ve been helping with a bunch of patients — is that people who are breaking through are getting very sick. They’re getting Regeneron antibodies.

There may be something to this waning immunity story. It’s fuzzy, but the people who are getting hit are more apt to be people who were vaccinated very early. I had a patient in recent days, who’s in her 70s. She got vaccinated in January. And, I mean, she almost died. I mean, it’s just terrible. I think — I hope — the monoclonals are going to save her life. But she was a healthy 70-year-old lady, and just following her case was illuminating — she thought she was protected, but she also wore masks everywhere. She was on guard and still got infected and desperately ill.

It is crazy-making to see Topol act as if he hadn’t considered that the vaccine-induced immunity might wear off in six months or so, particularly when much worse that expected immunity data coming out of Israel (which got pretty much everyone jabbed who was going to be jabbed in Jan-Feb), with efficacy down to 64% in June and 39% in August and Delta being markedly different than wild-type Covid.

And that’s before you get to an elephant in the room that oddly no one appears to have mentioned: immune responses in the elderly are weaker. That is why the good old fashioned flu vaccine has a more potent (and more expensive) version for those over 65. But these vaccines had very thin representation in their clinical trials of the over 65, and effectively none for over 80. So it isn’t hard to think that the vaccine-conferred immunity would be weaker and/or shorter lived in the elderly.

Other researchers were already sounding the alarm:

 

The boosters might not work. OMG, Topol dares to say it!

This booster thing is yet another issue, because we don’t even know if they’re going to protect against a Delta. I mean, everybody’s assuming it, but there’s no data. You know, there’s some neutralizing antibodies from the Pfizer report in 23 people and there’s an Israeli pre-print, it says there’s waning immunity without any neutralizing antibodies. So we’ll see. But these are just classic spike-protein boosters. There’s nothing special about them to handle Delta. So I don’t know. I mean, I suspect they’re going to provide some protection, but I’m not sure I’m so confident it’s going to be great.

Oddly, Topol appears to have missed the Moderna data, which as GM had pointed out to us, showed that a third booster shot generated only 40% the level of neutralizing antibodies of the first vaccinations. Again, that translates into some combination of less robust immune responses and shorter immunity.1

 

* * *
We’ve detected rising anger among our readers about Covid and the lack of good information, and they report if anything being met with even more ire when they try to tell vaccine true believers that things aren’t working out as promised.

 

The credibility of the public health establishment and the establishment generally is on track to take a big hit. We’ve published this observation from GM before, and we believe it bears repeating:

That part about the patients taking it out on their doctors will sadly become an even more common occurrence. In retrospect that was predictable, but you can’t really blame the patients — the medical establishment has been telling them lies for many months, and they see the doctors in front of them as part of one monolithic such entity. In reality it is no such thing — there are the honest doctors directly taking care of patients and then there is the corrupt lying actual high-level establishment, but that is not how the regular people perceive it.

The part about the willing self-deception of the elites is also very important. I too have come to the conclusion that either there is some absurdly nefarious grand conspiracy behind this (not really likely) or it is just stupidity and shortsightedness all around. COVID has shown, again and again and again, that you can ignore it for some time, but eventually you will pay for it. Wuhan CCP officials, Trump, the Tanzanian president, and many others learned that lesson the hard way. And it’s been 18 months of that. And it’s not like it was not known there is antigenic drift with these viruses, or that they have all sorts of tricks up their sleeve yet to be played, or that the vaccine was not going to last (was talked about from the start), or that we were never going to vaccinate enough people to reach herd immunity, etc.. So why would you possibly spend half a year blatantly lying when it was crystal clear from the start that it will backfire eventually? Unless you are indeed that deluded and unable to think rationally about the long term…

Unfortunately, this is rule by MBA, or pathological big organizational behavior, writ large. Too many bosses want to hear only good news from subordinates, which means they engage in cover ups or delays, hoping things will either blow over or they can find someone else to scapegoat. And now we run our country based on short-term careerist calculations.

While we can hope for well deserved days of reckoning to come eventually, too many people will suffer in the meantime due to their negligence and cowardice.

I am looking forward to is the well-deserved pillorying of Rochelle Walensky. We called her as likely to perform poorly as the newly-elevated head of the CDC, but our assessment turns out to have been far too generous. The CDC is a above all a data shop. Topol laments in passing about our inability to do rapid Covid testing, as if this is just some sort of regrettable outcome. It’s not. It’s Walensky’s fault. Getting testing right, and pushing Biden to use the Defense Procurement Act to requisition materials if they were in short supply, should have been a top priority in her first two weeks. Instead it doesn’t even appear to be on her list.

And how about getting more accurate and timely reports out of the various states? Has Walensky gone out into the field to meet a single official to offer CDC help and quietly threaten public embarrassment if they didn’t shape up? I could go on, but she seems to have the same conception of her job as Marcie Frost at CalPERS: being a pretty face for the organization, making PR her priority, and leaving the dirty work to minions.

____

.1 From GM via e-mail in July:

When Moderna put out their preprint on the B.1.351 booster (now obsolete with the rise of B.1.617.2):

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256716v1

There were two concerning observations there:

1. No neutralization activity left against P.1 and B.1.351 after 6-8 months
2. The booster worked, but only increased the neutralizing titers to ~40% of what they were originally against the Wuhan variant and what they are against it when boosted.

Based on the fact that the booster “worked”, OAS was dismissed by most, but this would in fact consistent with an “original antigenic sin” effect — nAbs only got boosted to less than half of the previous level.

But then the AZ booster preprint came out:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.08.447308v1

They saw the same <50% boosting against B.1.351, and they also analyzed neutralization against B.1.617.2 and saw that it was even worse against it (B.1.617.2 is antigenically more different from B.1.351 than it is from the wild type).

But they also did several more important experiments:

1. They immunized naive mice with a WT and with a B.1.351 vaccine, single dose
2. They immunized naive mice with a mixture of the two

And the neutralization against B.1.351 was still half of what it is against the WT

So one has to conclude that it is the virus itself that is the difference, not an OAS effect.

Hopefully we get such analyses for B.1.617.2 soon, as B.1.351 is probably not going to be relevant moving forward.

GM also noted that the Pfizer vaccine has been functionally equivalent to Moderna and in an e-mail last week, that Moderna’s latest investor update essentially repeats earlier date, with nothing new on Delta

The comments are of interest, perhaps, though IM Doc doesn't make an appearance there. Click on the article header to be taken to its page, including comments.


The following comment was the one that started my endeavor to copy IM Doc's posts here, so it's a repeat. Still worth rereading, though:

IM Doc

Good Morning.

I have endeavored to share all I could about what is going on on the ground in my world. I have had a very emotional past 10 days – and sometimes on the ground reporting as a physician is going to have to include very emotional things. This current situation has really taken a turn for the worse. The patients who are getting to the stage of critically ill are very very ill indeed. It seems they are not responding to things that were useful in previous waves. I am not sure what that means at this point. And although, we have not seen any kids here that are critically ill, I know this is happening to some degree across the USA. Furthermore, I have now seen with my own eyes cases of other viruses that should be confined to winter now making people very sick right now. I fear that our COVID friend may be learning some new tricks.

We now have multiple doctors and nurses on quarantine because although fully vaccinated they too have fallen ill, just as I did a few weeks ago. So I am going to be very busy and this will be the last report for a long while.

I have two brand new students with me starting this past Monday. As I always do, I start their rotation off with a very simple statement – THIS IS STILL A NOBLE PROFESSION. I endeavor always to make sure they know that through their entire time with me.

I have a lot in common with them as they enter their careers in this COVIDtide. When I was 25 and a brand new doctor, AIDS was raging. Death and dying hung in the air. But what kept me grounded back then was the other aspect of being an intern in that era – taking care of the WWII generation as they hit their 70s and 80s. As I always tell my students, go through your life learning more from your patients than they ever learned from you – and those WWII folks could not have been a better font for a young man.

One of the mystical things about being a PCP is the opening up that happens much of the time right as people know they are about to leave this realm. It happens all the time. I was 24 back then. I do not need to watch Saving Private Ryan to know what life was like for a 24 year old on D Day. I saw it repeatedly in haunted eyes and words as these men were dying generations later. I did not need to watch Judgement at Nuremberg to know what it was like to see the Nazis being executed one by one – I lived it out through memories of a 24 year old who was there – spilling his soul years later to his 24 year old doctor as he lay dying. I could go on and on with kamikazes, Iwo Jima, the USS Missouri, and Pearl Harbor.

I have also realized that patients will tell me in all kinds of ways that they are ready to go. And I best not stand in the way. And the thing that has become so important to me – this process can be just as mystical as watching a baby being born.

And as I have learned so many times in the past, life lessons are often given to me as their physician as they are dying – it is one of the greatest gifts of my life.

This happened this past weekend. A very elderly woman, fully vaccinated, told me in her own way that she was ready to go. This has been a very difficult struggle for her, but she took it with all the grace and dignity that I know she has. Her family has been here in this area for generations and she is as tough as nails. She gave it everything she had. But it was her time to go.

That morning, when I walked in the room, she looked up at me – “Doctor, there are angels in this very room – Do you see them? – They are all around me. They are getting ready to take me home. I am not afraid. They are standing right behind you and have their hands on your shoulders. Take their strength. They are trying to lift you up. Let them.”

One lesson I have learned is to not get in the way. When people are talking like that, they are indeed ready to go home.

And I walked out of her room, and promptly fell to the floor and I started weeping like a baby. I am no longer 24, and this gets harder and harder every year. I also think there is just an overall exhaustion at play. This whole thing is really taking its toll on all of us in the hospitals. There is also some PTSD at play with me personally. Abandoning people to face this moment alone was common in the AIDS era. It was horrible then. I thought I would never see it again – but it is happening all over again now. People dying all alone.

But her family and her church family were just not going to let that happen. A few minutes later, as I was doing her note, a chorus started to ring out from the windows in the room – an old American hymn – There were about 50 people outside her room letting her know they were right there.

O COME ANGEL BAND
COME AND AROUND ME STAND
BEAR ME AWAY ON YOUR SNOW WHITE WINGS
TO MY IMMORTAL HOME

And they kept right on going with another African American hymn —

MOSES LED GOD’S CHILDREN, 40 YEARS HE LED THEM
THROUGH THE COLD AND THROUGH THE NIGHT

THOUGH THEY SAID LET’S TURN BACK
MOSES SAID KEEP GOING
CANAANLAND IS JUST IN SIGHT

THOUGH WE WALK THROUGH VALLEYS, THOUGH WE CLIMB HIGH MOUNTAINS
WE MUST NOT GIVE UP THE FIGHT
WE MUST BE LIKE MOSES, WE’VE GOT TO KEEP ON TRYING
CANAANLAND IS JUST IN SIGHT

THERE WILL BE NO SORROW
THERE IN THAT TOMORROW
WE WILL ALL BE THERE BYE AND BYE
MILK AND HONEY FLOWING – THAT IS WHERE I’M GOING
CANAANLAND IS JUST IN SIGHT.

It was a joyous occasion. And as has always been the case – I learned many many lessons.
But the reason I bring this story up – I think we can all learn lessons.

That last song is from an ancient story sacred to Jews, Christians and Muslims. It has a message that should be visible to even agnostics and atheists.

I will sum it up for you like this –
Americans – time is running out. We need to begin to realize we are all on the same team here. If we fail to do so, it will likely lead to 40 more years in the wilderness. If we find it in ourselves to start working together, the milk and honey will be flowing. We are going to do this together or not at all.

If you are high risk, get vaccinated NOW. All of us should be eating well, exercising, out in the sun, losing weight and getting the stress off. We should all be looking for moments in our lives that are transcendent like I described above. It is very important for all of us to know that there is a higher purpose and we must get there together.

Live not by Lies
Live not in fear.

*******
 

IM Doc

The Great Russian Flu of the 1890s almost assuredly was a coronavirus and is the most applicable historical model to what we face now.

It came in 5-7 waves over 12-15 years.

What is happening right now is Wave #2 of this one.

 

“Are vaccines becoming less effective at preventing Covid infection?”

Posted on August 20, 2021 by 

Forgive me if I take a small victory lap on behalf of our Covid brain trust and Lambert for yet again delivering on the NC aspiration of being early and accurate. The headline above is from a Financial Times story, based on a spate of recent research showing waning efficacy of the Covid 19 vaccines, particularly Pfizer, from a variety of sources: data from Israel, which injected most of its population early, in January and February, with the Pfizer vaccine; a Mayo study, which showed falling efficacy for all vaccines, particularly Pfizer, which it found at 42% (Moderna holds by contrast at 76% over the same time period), a new Oxford report, and a study from Qatar.

The MSM finally starting to acknowledge that the vaccines are not all that they were cracked up to be came about largely due to foreign sources (doing a better job of tracking Covid cases than the US, a very low bar to beat) and one large US institution beyond reproach posting what has largely been missing from the CDC: actual pretty to very reliable findings. The fault isn’t simply that of the fragmented US public health care system. The CDC has not gone on the road to try to help/prod state public health officials. It hasn’t staffed up to fix VAERS. And the CDC has gone to some lengths to corrupt fact-gathering, most notably by saying it would not track breakthrough cases among the vaccinated as part of its May “Mission accomplished” chest thumping. And the CDC has engaged in dishonest PR by telling Americans that the vaccines would prevent Covid infection.

Mind you, in polarized, attention-deficit-disorder afflicted America, not being all in with vaccine cheerleading is a dangerous editorial position. Merely pointing out that the vaccines were overhyped was seen as being against them. So we’ve had to be more careful than we’d like in providing what we thought were early and important indicators that things were not well in vaccine-land. One was the number of breakthrough cases that IM Doc and his MD professional network (large by virtue of their participation in regular Grand Rounds and other sessions) when conventional wisdom was that that was impossible. And as time went on, IM Doc was seeing the breakthrough cases presenting as sicker and was also seeing and getting reports of breakthrough cases winding up in the hospital. From a mid-July e-mail:

To put it mildly, they are seeing a huge increase in hospitalizations in the Dallas area this week….A nurse XXX Hospital – deep in the heart of Dallas’ African American community – reported to me today that the hospital was full – certainly not with just Covid but there were many many COVID patients – starting to show up in just the past week or so – and she would guess 40-50% are vaccinated. She works on the COVID unit. She also reported to me that multiple nurses (as in critical numbers for staffing levels) have just up and quit this week – confirming my worst fears of the potential with our entire system. I fear that the front line nurses can see the approaching flood more clearly than anyone. They are paying her to work extra shifts up to 120 dollars an hour….

There are now press reports in Dallas stating that every admitted patient is unvaccinated. Who am I going to believe – my trusted colleagues who have just stated to me otherwise tonight? Or the media which has lied again and again and again? It really is a bad feeling as an American to be living under Pravda.

The next day, in a different hospital, when confronted with showing confirmed Covid cases in the area running nearly 57% vaccinated, one doctor went into meltdown, saying something pretty close to:

It is completely obvious to anyone with a brain that these people are liars – these supposedly “vaccinated” people never got vaccinated- it is that simple – they are lying – THE NUMBERS IN THE RESEARCH ARE JUST TOO OVERWHELMINGLY POSITIVE. We are surrounded by liars.

Within a month, he and 6 family members, all fully vaccinated, came down with Covid.

Along with IM Doc’s on the ground sightings, GM was relentlessly watching data. He had predicted in April, which was confirmed by Moderna data in May, “So basically protection against those two variants {P.1 and B.1.351] is gone after 6-8 months if you have been vaccinated against the original strain.”. And they have proven to be more vaccine-tractable than Delta.

Recall that GM was also alarmed at the rapid rise in cases in the Seychelles, which opened up after it hit a 63% vaccination level and immediately saw a spike in cases. GM also caught this snippet in early July:

 

The latest Israel reports show vaccine efficacy against severe Covid for the >65 year olds vaccinated first to be down to 54%:

The Financial Times article also discusses another topic we’ve dared to broach: that the vaccines have not proven to be terribly effective in preventing the spread of the highly contagious Delta. Ys the officialdom is doubling down on at best marginally effective vaccinations rather than promoting cheap tests and quarantines.

For convenience, we’ll repeat an extract from Charles Ferguson’s newsletter that we showcased in Links yesterday:

Case growth in high vaccination areas. Most national media coverage and government statements have portrayed the Delta surge in both cases and hospitalizations as primarily driven by states with low vaccination rates and/or anti-masking laws, implying that states with higher vaccination rates and/or stronger regulation are being spared. This is flatly false. Over the last month, the state with the highest growth rate in new covid cases in the entire U.S. is Vermont, which also has the highest vaccination rate of any U.S. state. Covid cases in Vermont grew nearly a factor of ten in the last month (from a seven day average of 10 cases on July 12 to a seven day average of 95 on August 12 – and 126 new cases on August 12 alone). Over just the last two weeks ending August 12, high vaccination states with higher covid case growth rates than Texas and Florida include not only Vermont (263% growth in the last two weeks) but also Hawaii (176% growth over the last two weeks), Oregon (144%), Washington state (146%), New York (108%), and Washington DC (158%), versus Texas with 72% growth in covid cases over the two weeks ending August 12, and Florida with only 50% growth. California is slightly behind Florida with 48% growth.

Furthermore, high-vaccination states are also experiencing high growth in hospitalizations. The seven day average for hospitalizations over the two weeks have increased 425% in Vermont, 140% in Hawaii, 70% in Washington state, and 128% in Oregon. This is not to say that vaccination rates and masking policy are unimportant. Without question, the policies of Florida, Texas, and other “resistant” states have worsened their problems…

The Financial Times article is very much worth reading in full.1 Key sections:

A rise in vaccinated people becoming infected with coronavirus has cast doubt over the lasting efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines, according to new studies, including one that found protection gained from the BioNTech/Pfizer shot declined more rapidly than that from the AstraZeneca jab.

An Oxford university study published on Thursday found that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine against symptomatic infection almost halved after four months, and that vaccinated people infected with the more infectious Delta variant had as high viral loads as the unvaccinated.

Two research papers from the US and Qatar have also fuelled debate over the need for top-up booster shots as they found higher numbers of “breakthrough infections” than anticipated, even though protection against serious cases of the virus appears to hold.

A preprint based on evidence collected at the Mayo Clinic hospital chain in the US state of Minnesota showed protection against infection fell from 91 per cent to 76 per cent between February and July for the vaccine made by Moderna, and from 89 per cent to 42 per cent for the Pfizer jab….2

A separate Qatar study focusing on the Delta variant found that two doses of Pfizer were 60 per cent effective at stopping infection, whether symptomatic or not, while Moderna was 86 per cent effective. 

Interestingly, the Financial Times acted as if a third shot might not be the way to go since UK health officials are still weighing the issue:

Pfizer has said for some time that a third shot would be necessary, probably about eight to 10 months after the second dose. It has applied to several regulators for approval for a booster shot. 

Adam Finn, a member of the UK’s joint committee on vaccination and immunisation, said there was “no clear evidence” of the need for a booster and urged caution, especially when some companies had a “strong financial incentive to propose boosting”. 

Perhaps they’ve looked at Moderna data on a third shot, which GM reviewed months ago. His bottom like (supported by earlier tech-speak): “The booster only upped the neutralization activity against the variant to half of what the levels were against the original strain.” And again, these were against easier-to-thwart variants that Delta.3

For the bioscience-literate among you, Igancio added:

It [the article[ points out most of the uncertainties on vaccine efficacy due to the timing and speed of Ab waning, the different behavior of the Delta variant and differences in vulnerabilities between age cohorts. It also mentions, though only by passing, the possible differences in the complexity of the immune response with different vaccines which in my opinion, and I have said this repeatedly, is now the most important feature of the vaccines with the dominating Delta strain. When you have a virus that replicates much faster than previous variants the importance of NAb levels might be lower, with viruses outnumbering NAbs by much. Then, non-neutralizing Abs that trigger NK activity and others might have a more important role in protection as well as nursing better Memory B cells.

A hugh research effort is needed to do detailed immunological profiles of infected people (and uninfected vaccinated) at various times after shots, compare profiles with disease outcomes and identify the factors that provide better protection. This would provide orientation for decisions on 3rd shots and might save the life of many.

As you can imagine, no such research effort will occur in the US. If we are very very lucky, the UK might take a stab and we will piggy back on it.

So the US gearing up for a third shot of the current mRNA vaccines against Delta looks an awful lot like “If the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.” And the really sorry part is our health establishment has other tools that for the most part, they are refusing to use.

___

1 It appears to have a misconstruction, which is not the reporter’s fault. A source claimed that the Moderna vaccine had “three times the mRNA” as Pfizer. That sounded simplistic enough to be wrong. From GM:

It’s not exactly the same thing though, so it is hard to compare 30 ug of one vs. 100 ug of the other

And Ignacio:

The immune response profile, not only NAb levels, is slightly different between Moderna and Pfizer, but there hasn’t been a direct and thorough comparison between them, and it is a pity. (And not only those, what about ChadOx or Novavax). Not everything has to do with NAbs, neither with reactogenicity. How the cellular response is balanced between Thelper 1 or 2 cells and the levels of non neutralizing antibodies might be of outmost importance, specially for delta variant.reactions.

But if NAb levels go higher with Moderna (something I have also read in a systematic review and meta-analysis paper) one can expect longer times for NAb waning and more durable protection.

2 From later in the article:

One complication is that the Pfizer jabs were given first and Moderna’s rollout has been more recent, but the researchers tried to compensate for this by only comparing groups vaccinated in the same month.

3 It’s weird to see the campaign of silence against J&J in the US. As GM pointed out:

In reality J&J is just half of a course of AZ, perhaps a bit more potent. But remember how people were talking about how the first dose gives you most of the protection? Well, it was indeed true, but it no longer is after the appearance of B.1.617.2

IM Doc didn't appear in the comment section of this particular post.
Mikel

“Opinion: As an aerosol scientist, I know schools need masks, HEPA filters and outdoor lunches:” [The Denver Post].

Good. Somebody moved the bus that aerosol scientists must have been thrown under for over a year and a half.

 
  1. Lambert Strether

    This is the Denver Post, and the University of Colorado has been very strong on aerosols. What we needed on school ventilation was continuous messaging from Walensky, Fauci, and sometimes Biden, starting when the school summer began, because that’s when schools can work on their physical plant. What we got instead was Walensky and Biden’s moronic “Mission Accomplished” moment, plus about two weeks of intense “hot vax summmer” from our moronic press before the reality of Delta set in. And the Biden Administration, having discredited or abandoned Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention, is now betting the farm on vaccination. It would have been better to hedge, but here we are.

     
  2. IM Doc

    It must be noted to readers that the University of Colorado and one of its affiliate hospitals, Denver Jewish, is the pre-eminent academic center in this entire country for pulmonary disease. Hands down.

    They know a thing or two about aerosolization there.

IM Doc

Rachel Maddow was the big instigator of the “fish tank cleaner” Arizona death last year in the very early part of the pandemic.

This was of course regarding the use of Plaquenil ( hydroxychloroquine) for the use of COVID. Yet another repurposed drug like ivermectin or fluvoxamine. The initial study about this drug and its use in COVID had all kinds of scandal associated with it – all of which came out some months later. But the damage had already been done – and the media had already done the dirty work. Multiple other non-USA studies have shown it does have some benefit. I have used this drug safely for decades. I currently have multiple dozens of little old ladies on it without problems for their rheumatoid arthritis. But to hear Rachel and her fellow travelers talk – it was as if the person was using cyanide. Like so many things, the dosing and use of the drug should be monitored by a physician – it is what I have done for 30 years. I have never, not once, had a complication with this drug.

But if you remember, the Trump supporter had ingested fish tank cleaner thinking it was full of hydroxychloroquine – and his subsequent death was all Trump’s fault for pushing it. That is when this previous liberal started to really question anything coming out of that lying Rachel mouth.

It did turn out later ( and I have not looked for months at any resolution to the story ) that the guy’s wife actually poisoned him with the fish tank cleaner in a murder attempt. But did Rachel say a word about her gross error – of course not. It is all fun and games to these people. And will be – until the pitchforks with their names on them start to arrive. The level of anger and bitterness I am seeing in my patients, both Dem and GOP, toward these clowns is rising every day and the boiling point will soon be here. I am trying to give a warning – just do not know that anyone is listening.
 

IM Doc

From one clinician in one practice so this is not dispositive.

Since the advent of Delta in mid May when we saw the first repeated vaccine breakthroughs I have now in my own practice had 179 vaccine breakthroughs including myself.

In that same time frame, I have had 14 patients who were previously infected become sick and positive again. Interestingly, in my group all 14 of these were related to having been vaccinated or boostered (on their own by lying to the pharmacy) the week or so before.

I am therefore not certain how to classify those 14. Partially vaccinated or partially boostered?

As to patients with previous positive covid illnesses, many of whom with documented IgG antibody tests as positive, and unvaccinated, I have had a grand total of zero become ill so far, even with delta.

I am evermore relying on my own observations about advice I am giving rather than this constant mishmash of research and public health statements. I am doing this for my own sanity and the sanity of my patients who are quite confused and angrier by the hour.
 

Raymond Sim

“As to patients with previous positive covid illnesses, many of whom with documented IgG antibody tests as positive, and unvaccinated, I have had a grand total of zero become ill so far, even with delta.”

I’m not wanting to pick nits, but your writings here are attended to very closely, so I think it’s important that readers understand that ‘previously infected, as verified by IgG tests’ and ‘previously infected’ are not identical categories. If there were more overlap we might not be in this mess at all.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Yes

    I have very bad timing some times when I sit down to write something – an alarm goes off – or a patient crumps – and I lose all my train of thought. I really should be careful about not going ahead and submitting during those times.

    There are all kinds of patients who have had an illness and were COVID positive – but who later do not have any kind of antibodies. I have honestly not seen any of these patients get sick either.

    There are others who check their antibody status like a hawk every few months or so – I am not so sure that this is too helpful either.

    I just saw a report on TV just now from Israel – that a new study of the data show that about 0.2-0.3% of the previously infected are getting COVID in the past few weeks. That too is consistent with what I am seeing. It does not appear to be too common at all.

    As you can only imagine – trying to be rational in this environment with people who are scared to death has become next to impossible.

    I am not comfortable assuming that someone will never have COVID again once they have had the real disease – that is just not the way corona viruses work. I do think it is very likely that future infections in an already infected person will likely become more muted on each subsequent turn. THAT IS how all other corona viruses work. We have 4 circulating corona viruses in humans right now – and we all pass them around to each other year after year – with various symptoms of URI or congestion, cough, or flu-like illness.

    What I am trying to convey in what I wrote earlier – is that what I am seeing on the ground in my own practice is consistent with the conclusions of the above paper – patients with a history of COVID positive illness and certainly with IgG antibodies just are not showing up in my office with COVID right now. The only ones who are have almost always been vaccinated in the preceding weeks – and that is something I have noticed all the way back to December. It really puzzles me. The same cannot be said for vaccinated patients – by a long shot – they continue to show up in droves. Another 6 just this AM. I absolutely see unvaccinated patients who have never had COVID before all the time. Just not in the numbers of the breakthroughs. But I feel there are so many more factors at work there – a doctor’s office is not the place to find those patients. The unvaccinated have sub-cohorts that do not seek medical care, many are young and are barely if at all symptomatic – but the most concerning is the large number of them who cannot afford to be sick – and certainly not be in quarantine – without losing their job – so they do not seek care. I lament the fact that our health authorities have been so negligent in their record-keeping – we are quite literally totally blind in these matters.

    I will also say that the worm is clearly turning in many of my colleagues. I think we are all starting to realize that we are going to have to learn to live with this. That was the central theme of a Grand Rounds I attended this week on Zoom. The vaccines are certainly not the silver bullet. We are going to have to work very hard on any repurposed or new antivirals. We are going to have to take masking and distancing much more seriously until this thing has calmed down to a dull roar (may be months – may be years – who knows at this point?) and we are going to have to work hard to protect the vulnerable – and we are going to have to put down the swords and really begin to work hard together. There are many of us in medicine who are working hard with our colleagues about not being so rigid about vaccine primacy. For example, after the presentation today, I do not think there was a single person who could forcefully support vaccine mandates for those with IgG antibodies – especially younger patients. I am seeing hardened minds changing – very slowly – but changing nonetheless. That is why I write here – non-medical people would never see what I am seeing behind the scenes.

     

NC staff write:

IM Doc vis e-mail:

In August and September of last year – Texas Florida and the rest of the south were getting killed – and then it kind of let up by October.

And just like last year – the action moved to the Northern Tier – Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Dakotas, and Nebraska and the surge started right around Labor Day – and crescendoed through NOV and DEC – just like it is right now. In OCT and NOV last year – it began the surge into the upper Midwest and New England – and the West Coast – and then eventually into the South again –

We are starting just like we did last year –

And Texas and Florida are slowly receding just like last year.

And we are on a definite upswing here – almost literally the same week it started last year.

It is so far exactly like last year as far as the timing and geography. Thankfully – the case numbers and deaths are not as high so far.


  1. curlydan

    I’d say you’re doing OK, but a bit worse than national averages.

    13.8% of Miller County has tested positive. 0.26% have died.

    For the U.S., 11.7% have tested positive, 0.19% have died.

    One thing about Lake of the Ozarks, though, is that it’s possible that people may contact the virus while there on the weekends then head back to “home” and test positive in their home counties.

    Also, your ICU situation doesn’t look that great. The hospital map in this link below shows 3 local hospitals with % of ICU beds filled at 76%, 78%, and 100%. That looks like thin margins to me.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/miller-missouri-covid-cases.html

     
    1. IM Doc

      I would be very careful making any firm conclusions about anything using that website.

      When I look at my county – it in no way reflects the current situation on the ground which is actually much worse than reported there.

      It looks to me that the website is about 2-3 weeks behind based on my county.

      I am not sure what data they are using to make these judgments but it is often very incorrect.

IM Doc

For years, my mother was the cook in our local elementary school. This was in the days before Marriott or whatever corporation was hired to bring in frozen pizza and ketchup. This was real food and required real work.

As a consequence, she was put in charge of dozens of these kids that were tasked with working to “pay” for their food. She found the whole concept abhorrent. But what she did become was a fierce protector of these kids. Throughout my young life, there were often 5-10 of these kids at our house for holidays, etc. They would never have had any if not for my mother.

What I will never forget as long as I live, was at my mother’s funeral, dozens of these kids showed up, now fully grown up, At the receiving line, my sisters and I were treated to one story after the other about how she had changed the course of their lives.

My mother always taught us all that we should take every opportunity we have to be positive. And do good for others. No matter the situation. And she lived it.


JBird4049

Anytime before the first two decades of the 20th century, the Western world, including the United States was just full of infectious, often deadly, frequently crippling diseases. Here is a partial list and these diseases were endemic in the United States including malaria.

Chicken pox
Cholera
Dysentery/diarrhea
Diphtheria
Malaria
Meningitis
Measles
Mumps
Polio
Syphilis
Tetanus
Tuberculosis
Plague
Pneumonia
Rubella
Scarlet Fever
Smallpox
Typhoid Fever
Typhus
Whooping Cough

They were all dealt with one by one during about century of effort. Aside from smallpox, all of them are still around with only constant work keeping them away, but this has and is still being done, which is why I know that Covid is solvable.
It might take much time, effort, money, a lack of corruption, but our ancestors with much less knowledge and resources did succeed with these far greater threats. Alll levels of government, municipal, state, and federal for more than a century did the work. Somehow, today, the mighty CDC, the agency responsible for much, though not all, of this is a joke.

All this death also explains the gloom, despair, and general sadness I often see when reading the history (and poetry) of the time of all classes regardless of wealth. Reading any accurate biographies of Abraham Lincoln just plops you into that gloom, doom, and despair, which is easily explain by the deaths both Mr and Mrs Lincoln had to endure. Everybody lost children, sometimes the majority. People often had so many children, not because they wanted to, but because it was often the only way to have any survivors.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I would add Yellow Fever to this list as well. Big problem especially in the Pennsylvania area during the Revolutionary Era.

    A physician named Benjamin Rush was a lynchpin in its eradication. And he is well remembered as a hero for this among many other things.

    Somehow, a few centuries from now, I do not believe the name Anthony Fauci will be held in the same regard.

  1. antidlc

    From the article:

    Antibodies against the coronavirus wane over time, but the immune system has a backup plan that doesn’t rely on boosters, according to a study by scientists at the University of Pennsylvania, where technology for mRNA vaccines was developed.

    Researchers at the university’s Perelman School of Medicine tracked 61 people for six months after immunization with mRNA vaccines. The team noted that antibodies gradually ebbed, but that the shots generated durable immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 in the form of B and T cells that increased over time to help ward off serious illness.

    They’re finding this out NOW? Why wasn’t this studied before the EUA, before the FDA approval?

    Seems to me this should have been known a long time ago…but what do I know.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      Lordie, this is like an economist’s theory paper.

      Memory B and T cells are a secondary line of defense. They are activated after an pathogen has gotten going. They are very helpful in slow-moving infections but the Covid cytokine storm happens quickly and aggressively, and faster with Delta than wild type Covid.

       
      1. Raymond Sim

        And (I know I’m a broken record.) the virus’s structure, its behavior in cell culture, postmortem evidence and public health statistics from around the world all strongly, in fact overwhelmingly indicate it can beat immune memory. This was always to be anticipated, but with Delta there shouldn’t be any question in anybody’s mind.

         
        1. Skunk

          Yes. This is why ultimately vaccination with the types of vaccines we currently use will not be enough. Vaccination is helpful, but will not solve the problem.

           
    2. IM Doc

      The problem with this kind of paper is answered by a simple question—-
      DOES THIS COMPORT WITH WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN REAL LIFE ON THE GROUND?

      I believe the answer unfortunately has to be a big NO.

      Way too many breakthrough infections, way too many of them getting fairly ill and even dying. This is not what one would expect if the conclusions in that research were correct…..

      I have not had time to look at the paper – but just right off the bat something appears to be wrong with the conclusions.
       

      IM Doc

      I find it hard to fathom an article talking about the lack of honesty when in the article is the statement that no vaccinated patients have died of COVID. I think the author may be referring just to the Provincetown outbreak, but the wording is such that it could be easily misconstrued. However, the sentiment remains.

      We have already had 2 vaccinated COVID deaths, multiple dozens of vaccinated hospital admissions, and literally hundreds of breakthrough cases, many quite ill, in my small community. Maybe we are being punished by the gods and this is the only place in the world this is happening. I do somewhat doubt that however.

      DO THESE PEOPLE EVER EVEN BOTHER TO LISTEN TO THE LIES THEY ARE TELLING THEMSELVES?

IM Doc

As a Professor of Medicine – most specifically Internal Medicine and Medical History, this is the time of the year that I am preparing for a new group of students, 2 of whom will be starting with me next week. Because I have left the big city, I am no longer in front of lecture halls, but I am responsible for teaching these young kids what it is like to be a physician on the front lines.

Always looking for new material, I found a most amazing book. I would like to share it with you all.

Published in 2019, right before COVID, it is called THE PANDEMIC CENTURY and was written by Mark Honigsbaum. It is a detailed look at 9 different major infectious disease crises of the 20th century. I would quibble about calling some of them pandemics – for example The Parrot Fever Scare of 1930 – but the common threads to all of these events are hauntingly familiar to what we are seeing now. One of the great comforts of reading history is the famous throwaway line – “This has all happened before, and will all happen again.” And we survived each and every time.

There are things described in almost every one of these events that we are dealing with at this very minute –

1). The complete inability of the medical profession to realize something new was going on, to change course, and to admit mistakes – In the Parrot Fever event of 1930, medical science had thought it had already determined the cause of psittacosis and despite all evidence to the contrary that they were wrong in every way, continued to act on wrong foundations until finally the medical scientists themselves started dying because they were allowing themselves to be infected out of ignorance. In the 1918 Spanish flu it took TWO WHOLE YEARS before medical science admitted it was completely wrong and that the cause of the flu was not a bacteria known as Bacillus.

2). Bungling and misdirection at the beginning in almost every case led to critical months being wasted. This was largely the fault of the public health authorities and their entrenched bureaucracy.

3). The complete disaster of research done early on and the insistence on pristine research and pristine conclusions led to multiple horrific treatment and pathogen identification problems. For example, multiple papers about EBOLA in 2014-2015 were completely dismissed because the peers would just submit to the journals “There is no Ebola in West Africa. These people do not know what they are talking about.” These were papers about the large numbers of antibody positive patients for Ebola in West Africa. And we all know what happened in the West African countries of Liberia and Nigeria and how that reached out to touch the USA just months after these “experts” dispatched these papers.

4) In almost every case, the public health officials in the USA tasked with telling the truth and being a calming influence did the exact opposite. It is way more common than not for complete panic to rule rather than calm and cool responses. Visible panic and emotionalism was often seen in these leaders during many of these events.

5) The people at the very top of the public health and federal health agencies during many of these epidemics were shown eventually to be complete political hacks.

6) Pushing miracle cures and magic bullets during the heat of the moment ON EVERY SINGLE OCCASION led to tears. This is true of even the polio vaccine which was consumed in disaster right out of the gate. Those in the federal health apparatus that figured out BEFOREHAND what was going to happen were subjected to howls of derision. But happen it did.

7). The miracle of antibiotics and vaccines has led to very elevated expectations among the population. These expectations are completely unachievable with novel agents and new organisms. Once this is exposed, the loss of trust, anger, and feeling of betrayal can set back the pandemic efforts for years.

8). Polio is the one disease that was likely handled the best. But even the 1950s vaccination effort was beset with multiple disasters. And it took 27 entire years for the USA to be cleared of the virus.

I just thought some would be interested. This book will be required reading for my students this year. History is very important to teach us lessons about where we are now.
 

  1. IM Doc

    Yes

    Either I am getting too old to proofread or a spellcheck event occurred

    That line should have been TWENTY WHOLE YEARS.

    Sorry all.

IM Doc

John Barry – who wrote The Great Influenza – the best book about the Spanish Flu of 1918 – had a very important quote that he found somewhere around that time – and I cannot remember who he was quoting –

“When you combine politics with science, all you have left is politics.”

It is absolutely NOT the vaccine that these folks think is the Mark of the Beast. Not at all. It is the concept of the vaccine passports – and then the next extension would be to have a chip placed with your vaccine and other information that then communicates with the 5G network. It is the same concept as the social network score being brought out by the Chinese Communists right now on their people. Once you quit listening to Rachel Maddow et al making fun of these people for being 5G tin foil hatters – and really listen to how this is actually their worst prophetic nightmares coming true, you begin to have a bit more understanding. But all the other side gives them is laughter and derision and downright ugly mean bullshit behavior.

I came from this world. My family were not quite snake handlers – but close. To ask me to turn on them and denigrate them is something I will just not be able to do. As much as I do not agree with their worldview – I still love them – and they are what made me who I am today.

Denigrating and making fun of them is just going to make it worse. That too is part of their world view.

Because the other part of their prophecies that get so little attention – is that Jesus himself told them all that the righteous would be spit on and laughed at. And they would be considered BLESSED when this happens. Look around you right now. And FYI much of both the African and Latino communities have this same end-times belief. It is not unique to Southern Whites. Folks, these people are ready to rock and roll. They are locked and loaded and quietly preparing themselves to fight the Beast. I attended a Zoom meeting for a family funeral last week. He did not die of COVID – but it was as fire and brimstone and preparing the troops about these issues as I have ever heard. If they are doing this at funerals, God only knows what is going on during Sunday services.

I cannot believe the absolute incompetence of our health officials has led to this. But here we are. I hope and pray that something changes. If not, this is going to get real ugly real quick.


Not really here because of the IM Doc comment, but he liked the previous poster's charts, so I thought I'd include the thread:

Rick

For those in Oregon, I have compiled all the Oregon Health Authority bulletins on the county cases since the beginning of the pandemic and created a number of graphs and visualizations. There is a stark difference between the large counties that have half of the population and the small counties with half the population.

And yes, this latest wave of cases has been the worst in Oregon.

Many restrictions were lifted on the July 4th weekend and the graphs tell the tale of how that went.

Coronavirus in Oregon since 3/2020

 
  1. Laughingsong

    Nice work! I’m bookmarking that one, and thanks for doing the work for everyone. And my goodness, I have never seen an unemployment graph look like the one for 2020. Holy guacamole….

     
  2. IM Doc

    If only the CDC or national health agencies could put out as meaningful charts like this.

    Just incredible work – this must have taken you forever to do.


temporaryreality: (Default)
 IM Doc

I am sorry – this response is going to be somewhat long. But I feel like what I have to say is becoming more and more important for folks to think about.

I appreciate so much the tolerance that Yves and Lambert and the commenters on this blog have given me for my comments here.

30 years ago, I walked across the stage to get a diploma. I stood up in a large group of classmates, raised my hand in the air and swore to God that for the rest of my life, the only professional priority for me would be the health and welfare of my patients and my community. That is the alpha and the omega. I did not take an oath to corporate medicine, to Dr. Fauci, or to Pfizer. I took an oath to every single one of my patients to do my very best for their interests. My fate was sealed from that day forward. I have been endeavoring to do this from day one, and I will not back down from those ideals embodied in that oath – nor will I ever.

My professors of medicine taught me well. And I have done all I can do to return the favor to the next generation. I have been given more than a dozen teaching awards on faculties that have included Nobel Laureates and members of the National Academy of Science. I taught my students to think always with their patient’s interest at heart, to question everything, and to always follow the scientific method. But to always remember that we are dealing with human beings – sometimes at the very worst moments of their lives. I also taught them to live by a very important fact in their professional careers – no matter if they do clinical medicine, research or public health – truth is the very foundation of what we do. Without it, everything will come crashing down. I have literally thousands of former students, interns, and residents on forums that I keep up with often. They are some of the leaders of this profession. They are located in every corner of this country. It is through them that I have been able to keep a pulse on what is going on medically in this country. And it is through them that I realized early on in this pandemic that all was not as it was being presented. Fear mongering, lying, panic and hysteria were rapidly becoming the order of the day. Absolute mistruths were being told to the American people. Numbers and figures were being quoted completely out of context and historical perspective to scare people to death. More importantly, critical issues about the virus and the disease it causes were not being discussed at all. For example, as was true then and is true now, the overwhelming risk factors for bad outcomes are old age and poor health habits such as obesity, inactivity, and immunocompromised status. That was true at the beginning and is most certainly true now. But to this day, and especially since the vaccine push started, we hear ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about this from our officials. And I saw absolutely no one in the media lifting a finger to do a thing about it; rather, they were happy participants in the whole affair.

I am not now nor have ever been an investigative journalist. But I am a foot soldier on the ground and I have been trained by the best to make observations, to think of possible hypotheses to explain them, to look for critical evidence to support or falsify hypotheses, and to act accordingly. That is the very essence of the scientific method. It was hammered into my brain as a young physician in the AIDS wards, when we literally had no idea what we were doing for years on end. We had to learn to let that method flow through our veins in order to do the best we could do for patients while our whole profession was trying to figure AIDS out. And that experience was critical for me when this whole thing started. I could see that my patients were getting a horribly warped view of the whole situation, so I decided all those months ago to start putting my observations on here as comments. I have then shared with everyone hypotheses that a rational scientist/medical doctor would come to, and how I was going about falsifying or supporting them. Some of the thoughts have been critically wrong, and I have endeavored always to make sure all know that. Many of them have stood up over time. Everything I have done or said in these comments has been in good faith. I view this group of commenters as my very own.

But now, my friends, we have reached a critical juncture in this entire situation. As has always been the case in human endeavor, when you start down the road of lies, it will be no time before you have painted yourself into a corner. And that is where the medical establishment finds itself today. Along with the elite/political establishment that prodded, aided, and abetted every step of the way. This is all about to blow up in their face and they are acutely aware of that. They have two choices, admit their mistakes, ask for forgiveness and understanding, and begin the rectification process OR double down.

It is very clear to me that the elite have decided to double down. The FSMB proclamation is just but one part of doubling down. I will bring your attention to a few other things this weekend that are emblematic of the current elite thinking –

The Brooks & Dionne sequence from PBS Newshour on Friday night – We have two commenters – one ostensibly from the Right – and one from the Left. Both have clearly agreed that it is high time to get nasty on the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. There is not a comment made about all the facts that have come to light this past week – as in all the breakthrough cases, as in all the vaccinated positive patients being just as likely to transmit as the unvaccinated. I am going to make an argument right now – GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW ABOUT THESE VACCINES, WHAT EXACT PURPOSE IS BEING SERVED IN A PUBLIC HEALTH PERSPECTIVE OF FORCING THESE VACCINES ON EVERYONE? There is certainly no longer evidence that it is any safer to be in a crowded grocery store with vaccinated or unvaccinated patients. As for individual risk, I have been on my knees for months literally begging all of my high risk patients to get vaccinated. My contacts are telling me that the overwhelming vast majority of the ill in the hospitals are in these same high risk groups – OBESE DIABETIC and IMMUNOCOMPROMISED. 25 year old jocks are not in that high risk group. Outside of vaccinating every single soul that is high risk, given what we know now, what is the purpose of vaccinating every single human?

FSMB or anyone else – that is a scientific argument, based on observations and facts – please I am all ears, tell me what is wrong with that argument? Please present your own observations and facts.

Please look at the Bill Maher show on Friday when he had his roundtable. I cannot find a video of this. He had the US Rep from the Virgin Islands. And some guy who was the very essence of the elite PMC. They got around to vaccine hesitancy among blacks – and he blamed it on Tuskegee. The US Rep from the Virgin Islands was like – NOT SO FAST. THAT WAS GENERATIONS AGO. THAT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT APPLICABLE HERE. THE PROBLEM IS THE AFRICAN AMERICAN COMMUNITY HAVE NO FAITH IN THE GOVERNMENT TO DO THE RIGHT THING. And I looked at my wife and said – PREACH IT SISTER. That is a woman who is in touch with her constituents and knows what she is talking about. I would add the following – the same exact thing is true of the majority of the Bubbas out there that are being denigrated all day by the press – THEY HAVE NO FAITH IN THE GOVERNMENT TO DO THE RIGHT THING – WHY WOULD THEY???? It has been my contention all along that Blacks and Working Class Whites have so much in common. Maybe the upcoming turmoil will make them all realize that. The best however was the PMC guy. Mr. Maher and I are obviously marinating in the same cultural stew. After going on for a while about Bubbas and Blacks, Maher made the point that another group of vaccine holdouts were the pristine body, man bun Bernie Bros. THE PMC guy did not even acknowledge the comment. Maher said it again. And again the PMC guy was literally dumbstruck. Never had entered his mind. Maher, seeing it was hopeless moved on. THESE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN MARINATING IN THEIR OWN NARRATIVE FOR SO LONG THEY HAVE NOT A CLUE WHAT IS REALITY. It is clear they have all convinced themselves that enforced vaccine mandates are such a great idea. Why, there will be no consequences, everyone will just buckle under. THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT FIRE THEY ARE PLAYING WITH. I have been hearing from multiple contacts all over the country that the mass resignations in health care are just beginning. It is not the RNs and MDs. Nope it is the CNAs the front desk people, the housekeeping. They are just walking off the job – going over to the Piggly Wiggly or Kroger and getting more money and less bull shit from the boss. It is happening among police, firemen, teachers and other workers as well. WHAT KIND OF MORONS WOULD DO THESE MANDATES IN THIS ECONOMY? THEY ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF TOUCH. And again, the reason for mass vaccination for public health has literally fallen apart with the evidence coming out the past few days. WHAT PURPOSE DOES IT SERVE FROM A PUBLIC HEALTH STANDPOINT TO VACCINATE THE ENTIRE POPULATION WITH A NON-STERILIZING VACCINE?

Again, FSMB and any others, that is an argument based on observation and evidence…. Please address the argument with your own observations and evidence and let’s talk. I am all ears.

Thirdly – this little chestnut from Andrew Sullivan If you read his substack entries from early this year, several times he writes that very soon, as in this summer right now, we will be living in the Roaring 20s again. COVID will be over. All his elite friends were telling him that. Imagine his surprise when the event in the town he was in for the summer popped the lid off the narrative. Because of the incompetence of our press, there is no real reporting about how many “bears” were actually involved. I, however, have taken care of a lot of “bears” in my life. Obesity, glucose intolerance/diabetes, and sedentary lifestyles are very common in this group. As is fitting with the truth of this whole pandemic, those are all critical risk factors for bad COVID. What a perfect opportunity for the press or medical establishment to hammer this point home with this group of folks that have fallen ill. NOT A PEEP. Could that lifestyle choice be a reason why so many of them, vaccinated or not, fell ill? How many “bears” were actually involved in getting ill? And is so fitting of the whole elite attitude, Mr. Sullivan’s impulse is to blame the unvaccinated – and “let it rip”. He looks right through the habits of his friends and blames the unvaccinated for ruining his promised party summer. My favorite quote – “So the obviously correct public policy is to let mounting sickness and rising deaths concentrate the minds of the recalcitrant. Let reality persuade the delusional and deranged. It has a pretty solid record of doing just that.” Mr. Sullivan, do the delusional and deranged include the over 700 of these people who were actually vaccinated? Mr. Sullivan, are you listening to yourself? Delusional and deranged? What a perfect encapsulation of these people and how they think. He has pontificated so much in his life about all the indignities that happened in the AIDS crisis. I guess “let it rip” was actually the lesson he learned from that nightmare. I learned some lessons too. You tend to do that when you sign 8-10 death certificates every day of your intern year. All I can say is “I’ll do me. Mr. Sullivan, you can do you.”

FMSB – or anyone else – please point out to me any misinformation in the above paragraph.

I want to finally explain a very important concept that is going to become even more important the next few weeks. We clearly have a non-sterilizing vaccine. There is now continued and mounting evidence that the vaccine helps symptoms and keeps some people from becoming extremely ill. (That is why I am strongly encouraging everyone at risk in my practice to take it NOW). However, there is evidence now, the Provincetown affair being the best example, that these vaccines do nothing to stop transmission. The vaccinated and unvaccinated alike can share the wealth and harbor viruses in their bodies. Viruses do not just sit around. They replicate at literally a logarithmic rate. They are not bacteria who reproduce at a 1-2-4-8 pace. No indeed, they are replicating at a 1-1000-1000000-1000000000000 pace. Since mutations happen when replication occurs, when you have this logarithmic rate of replication you have much higher levels of mutation. You are much more likely to have viruses develop mutations that will allow them to be more transmissible, more toxic, and more vaccine evasive. And when you have a vaccine that does not clear the virus from the vaccinated but instead allows it to be replicated and spewed you have just logarithmically elevated your chances of having real problems occur. That is where we are with these vaccines folks. At least with the information we have now. I did not just make this up out of my head. These are things I read just this AM in textbooks of medicine. Latest editions. Textbooks are there not for latest research – they are the repositories of wisdom and knowledge acquired over generations. They are the foundation. This is not new knowledge. This was known during the polio pandemic. That is why there were 2 vaccines – one was nonsterilizing(Salk) and the other sterilizing(Sabin). Both were given to every patient because they understood the wisdom of not having vaccine escape viruses in the wild. This entire concept has been known for generations.

There are two big differences now –

First of all, polio viruses and their ability to mutate are like a dice roll. Coronaviruses are more like a Rubik’s Cube.

Secondly, Jonas Salk was loud and proud about donating the polio vaccine to the world. He could have been minting gold. However, he hit one out of the park for the ages. Pfizer, Moderna, and their executives are indeed minting gold – how many new billionaires have been created by these vaccines? And oh by the way – the third world can just suck it – losers. And the elite wonder why “the delusional and deranged” as Mr Sullivan puts it, have a trust issue.

FSMB – please point out any misinformation in the above paragraph. Since the discussion about viruses is directly from Mandell’s Infectious Disease – we may have problems if you believe that is misinformation.

Folks, if you are high risk, obese, old, diabetic or immunocompromised – please go and get vaccinated right now. We all need to monitor our risk factors going forward – LOSE WEIGHT, GET YOUR BLOOD SUGAR DOWN, EXERCISE, GET SUNLIGHT – GET VIT D EVERY DAY. HUG YOUR KIDS AND YOUR SPOUSE. LAUGH ALL YOU CAN.

And America – we are either going to do this together or not at all. Please act accordingly.

Stay safe everyone – and God Bless.
 

Tom Collins' Moscow Mule

“Can we predict the limits of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their phenotypic consequences?”

The above is posted in the ‘links’ and seems to coincide with at least some your [IM Doc] concerns.

I am interested in narratives, the facts, the interpretation of those same facts, the telling and retelling of the narratives as the availability of the facts and information changes and their interrelated long term outcomes. In this case we observe the interplay in real time as the narratives change with the further addition of new facts and information. Fascinating to be sure, if one can remain intellectually and emotionally detached from the negative personal outcomes, that is, death, or compromised long term function for at east some individuals. “The word adventure has gotten overused. For me, when everything goes wrong – that’s when adventure starts.”– Yvon Chouinard Has the adventure started yet?

So, the public has ben recently told that, “CDC warns that delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and may make people sicker than original Covid”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/delta-cdc-warns-variant-is-as-contagious-as-chickenpox-may-make-people-sicker.html

“CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky confirmed the authenticity of the document, telling CNN: “I think people need to understand that we’re not crying wolf here. This is serious. It’s one of the most transmissible viruses we know about. Measles, chickenpox, this—they’re all up there.”

https://www.newsweek.com/how-contagious-chickenpox-measles-cdc-document-delta-variant-coronavirus-r0-1614661

That being the current CDC case, then it is assumed and understood according to the following, that, “For highly transmissible pathogens, such as those causing measles or pertussis, around 95% of the population must be vaccinated to prevent disease outbreaks, but for less transmissible organisms a lower percentage of vaccine coverage may be sufficient to have a substantial impact on disease (for example, for polio, rubella, mumps or diphtheria, vaccine coverage can be ≤86%).” Does this same line of reasoning then apply directly to the delta variant? Why or why not? Does it even matter?

“A guide to vaccinology: from basic principles to new developments”

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00479-7

Regarding the virtue(s), or lack thereof of a non-sterilizing vaccine and/or sterilizing immunity
in this instance, some individuals believe it is neither of great concern, nor even realistically possible [at this point in time]. See for example,

“Michael Mina, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, thinks achieving sterilizing immunity with a vaccine will not be possible for Covid-19. Experience with human coronaviruses — and with multiple pathogens that cause colds — shows immunity that develops after infection with respiratory tract infections is not lifelong. In some cases, the duration is measured in months, not years. If [infection with] natural coronaviruses doesn’t do it, I don’t think that we should necessarily expect or have the anticipation that we’ll be able to get there with the vaccine,” said Mina, who is also associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital. Munster agreed trying to develop vaccines that confer sterilizing immunity would be a heavy lift with this coronavirus.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the-world-needs-covid-19-vaccines-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/

“Vaccines Need Not Completely Stop COVID Transmission to Curb the Pandemic”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccines-need-not-completely-stop-covid-transmission-to-curb-the-pandemic1/

 
  1. IM Doc

    What I will say or add to your discussion.

    From what I have heard in multiple conference discussion this past week or so is that exactly how non-sterilizing the vaccines are is now critical. If it is really true that their sterilizing activity is equal to unvaccinated status – then we have issues. If it is just allowing 5% of the viral load of a non-vaccinated patient that is a completely different story. The flu shots to some degree are non-sterilizing each and every year, but my understanding is they are nowhere close to parity.

    When that article came out from the CDCs own MMWR this week that the viral load in Provincetown was the exact same as the unvaccinated, it sent chills down my spine. That is most definitely not a good finding. They need to be looking at this aggressively to confirm or not. Also, as I alluded to above – was there something unusual about that cohort of patients? If it truly was a “bear” convention – they are older, more obese and much more likely to be diabetic. Did those pre-disposing conditions possibly factor into the parity with viral loads? Furthermore, it is critical that actual virologic counting be done on the samples. cT is very suggestive but not expositive.

    But the point that it is apparently so close in parity to unvaccinated status is profoundly disturbing. This was completely unexpected and concerning to every one I have talked to this week.

    I am awaiting further data – assuming they will be forthcoming with it. It has the potential to be a very interesting week.

    And per your quote above, “If infection with natural coronaviruses doesn’t do it, I don’t think we should necessarily expect or have the anticipation that we’ll be able to get there with the vaccine.”

    I have been hearing those sentiments all this past week from many people I know and respect. Basically – we are going to have to learn to live with this virus. How are the American people going to take that?

    I have multiple overarching concerns right now ——

    1). There is absolute signal that this is a completely non-sterilizing vaccine. If so, there is precedent but not certainty that this could make this whole thing worse. In a normal world, I would have expected a pause and reflect moment. Instead, we are doubling down on vaccinating everyone. Is that a wise course?

    2). There is all kinds of talk in the air about boosters right now. I have not spoken to a single patient – not one – many of whom lined up willingly in December – who are remotely interested in this at this time. A direct quote from my old lady neighbor from less than an hour ago – “I got vaccinated once – and I did that for my country. I will never let this clown car brigade get near me with another one. They cannot keep their lies straight.” And she is a loyal Dem – Biden signs all over her yard last year. All these people like Rachel Maddow and Sean Hannity towing the line of the official narrative never get near an actual citizen. I do so every day all day – and I am telling you that is just not going to fly.

    3). The idea of mandating vaccination in this unsure environment is really a sign of the medical establishment not realizing the position they are in. I just got off the phone with the nurse taking care of my patients in the hospital. One of the CNAs told the charge nurse she would not be back tomorrow. She quit. The stress is already overwhelming and now this. My hospital has already had its little mandate attempt – and it ended in disaster for the administration. So they tried the humiliation and loss of privileges approach – and people are quitting in the droves. I am sorry to say – this could literally cripple some of our hospitals far better than a crush of COVID patients. And at this juncture, unless more evidence comes to the fore, universal enforced vaccination does not make much sense medically.

    4) When we have these things going on with the vaccines, other measures are going to become much more important. Let’s talk about masking. That was when the first lie happened – and the first domino dropped. Fauci lied. He then admitted it. It was a noble lie. But a lie nonetheless. Done by a government official in the middle of an establishment orgy of lies starting with the Mueller investigation. How much better it would have been to say something like this – “Yes we all need masks. But right now, we do not have enough for our HCW. Americans, stay home. If you do have to get out, use towels, whatever. We will get masks soon enough. I am going to ask Pres Trump today to do an emergency authorization to make billions of masks ASAP.” He may have taken flack yes – but when the lie was told and then revealed later – in the environment in which it was told – it led to half the country believing masking was right up there with faked moon landings.

    And on so many things this year – one lie leads to another and before long you are in looney land.

Acacia

If I may add another comment, Matt Ford’s article “Vaccine Mandates Are as American as Apple Pie” in today’s links offers an interesting juridico-historical perspective, beginning in 1777 with an order from George Washington to inoculate soldiers against smallpox in the battle for independence. In this way, Ford neatly links “freedom” with the vaccine, and later in the article “civilization” with vaccination. Now, I’m no expert here, but a quick search suggests that the history of the smallpox vaccine is said to begin in 1796, with the work of the British doctor Edward Jenner. So what was being given to soldiers of the American revolution in the 1770s? It seems that it was an earlier treatment called variolation, which is not quite the same as vaccination. The difficult part (which Ford doesn’t address) is that insofar as the current Covid vaccines are non-sterilizing, it doesn’t really work to compare them to the smallpox vaccine or, assuming it conferred lasting and sterilizing immunity, the earlier techniques of variolation. Again, non-expert here, so by all means correct any mistakes.

 
  1. IM Doc

    This was an article written by someone who has no concept of medical history.

    As is so usual in today’s world, we tell things that are somewhat true, without any context whatsoever.

    You are correct, in the 1770s, the process would most definitely have been variolation. This was a widespread practice in England, Scotland, France and the American colonies. It did work but it had two big drawbacks. If not done correctly, it actually produced a smallpox outbreak. AND it had a very uncomfortably high fatality rate.

    It did work for the most part, but true records like we keep today were absolutely not done at the time.

    It is also important to note that Washington’s order came during a time of war and was strictly for the military men. It was never dreamed to be forced on civilians. That is a markedly different situation in which we find ourselves today – again there is ZERO context in some of these opinion writers.

    As my great uncle who survived kamikaze raids in Okinawa wrote in his memoirs – “There were over a thousand of us on that ship. Every one of us had already come to the realization we had given our lives to our country. It is only a twist of fate that any one of us arrived home intact.”

    Military matters in a time of war is much different than we find ourselves today. As Alfred Lord Tennyson said about the enlisted – “Ours is not to wonder why….Ours is just to do or die.”

    By the time the Vermont case came up that he described – the actual smallpox vaccination had many years of safety information behind it. It is absolutely farcical to compare that to our current situation. First of all the mortality of smallpox is astronomically higher than COVID. And secondly, the safety of the vaccination process was very well established – something that has not even been close to being done with the COVID vaccines.

    Another absolutely ridiculous article written by someone who has little to no understanding of medical history. Twisting facts to make a point that does not exist. I have gotten very used to the sight of these kinds of things this year. As someone who taught Medical History for decades, I find the whole thing very very discouraging.

Tinky

Many thanks Doc, as always.

Here is some hard evidence supporting some of your basic concerns. It is from Dane County (Wisconsin, I believe), and was collected from July 12-25th. The Viral Load in Breakthrough Cases section is of particular interest. Here’s the key excerpt (bold emphasis mine), followed by a link to the full pdf of the data collected and conclusions.

We can see that there are far more samples from the unvaccinated group— this is expected because unvaccinated people are more at risk of getting COVID. We can also see that the gray and yellow dots are distributed similarly. This is evidence that fully vaccinated people have viral loads similar to that of unvaccinated people, and may be more capable of spreading COVID than was previously known. This is a very recent discovery that is also being supported by recent research done by the CDC, but more research is still needed.

https://publichealthmdc.com/documents/2021-07-29_data_snapshot.pdf

 
  1. IM Doc

    I know nothing about this county. But this is exactly the kind of data that will need to be really evaluated.

    I would like to point out something very important though. They report the collection time was from JUL 12-25.

    If this county is anything like my own, the reason there are so many more unvaccinated samples in the cohort is not because “they are more at risk of getting COVID”. That may be the case – but we can not know that in my county because no one was even acknowledging these breakthrough cases at all. That did not even begin in earnest until about JULY 25th or so.

    Since that time, there has been a marked change in that process. Every single positive, vaccinated or not, is now being thoroughly evaluated. The datasets in huge swaths of this country are completely worthless for case counting from mid May until about last week because of this.

    I do not know if that is the case for your county. They may have not been following guidance from the CDC and actually counting the cases.

Questa Nota

Matter of time before many hospitals will need some National Guard or similar reinforcement as nurses, and docs, continue exodus. That may conflict with similar call-ups for different skill sets to reinforce the dwindling, defunded, police forces.

COVID-driven martial law next, not as far-fetched now, is it?

Once upon a time, people went into public service with goals including the help of their fellow human beings.

 
  1. IM Doc

    It is not really the RNs and MDs that are refusing vaccination – although that is happening to some small degree..

    It is all the ancillary staff – the CNAs, the receptionists, the orderlies, the housekeepers. All right in the middle of patient care. Many of the legion of desk jockeys in health care are also refusing but their absence would not be so critical. It may actually help things out.

    If this ancillary staff begins to walk out en masse, and I have very good information that it is already happening to some degree in some places, we will have way more of a crisis on our hands than a COVID surge would ever be. You can count on it.

    Nursing homes and rehab centers are already feeling the pain everywhere.

    Unlike the RNs and MDs, these employees take no oaths. They have been shat on by the MBA crowd for the past decade. The ones I have personally spoken to are finding the pay much better at the local grocery store and they do not have to deal with all the crazy in the hospitals.

    This is indeed an emerging problem. In some places, these employees have to wear Scarlet Letters – UNVACCINATED or get to eat their lunch in the broom closet. Brilliance! And I see all of those in charge just doubling down. The problem just simply does not exist to them. But if they are not careful, it soon will.

Sloppy Pfizer Booster Clinical Trial Consent Form Provides Way to Exclude Reactions That Require Emergency Care

Posted on August 3, 2021 by 

Bloomberg Law complained recently that the consent forms for Covid 19 vaccine clinical trials are larded with unimportant information and difficult to understand. Based on our reading of a Pfizer consent form for a trial of a third shot of its Covid-19 vaccine, those aren’t the biggest causes for pause.

We’ve embedded a Pfizer consent form for a Covid-19 booster vaccine clinical trial below, which as of posting time was available at careidresearch.com. We strongly encourage you to read it in full.

We’ll discuss first how the form does not appear to have been reviewed by the oversight body tasked by the FDA to do so, and then will discuss why key parts are troubling.

The biggest issue, flagged in our headline, is that the consent form allows for participants who need emergency care and go straight to their doctor or hospital to be ejected from the study. But it’s not the only one.

Pfizer Consent Form Too Obviously Not Reviewed, Let Alone Negotiated, by FDA-Designated Overseer, the Institutional Review Board

The FDA has tasked Institutional Review Boards, aka IRBs, to provide independent oversight of biomedical research projects to protect study participants, as you can see on the agency’s website.

Historically, academic medical centers and large local hospitals operated most IRBs. IM Doc, who was on an IRB for nearly two decades and its chairman for several years, explains how major drug companies have successfully shifted many over to private sector players to gut oversight:

In our IRB we oversaw usually between 250-400 active trials at any one time. There was a staff of 6 RNs dealing with all the documents, the patient contacts, and any other work needing to be done.

The Board itself consisted of a committee of LOCAL individuals. There were 15 people on ours. 3 were doctors, 3 were nurses, 3 were clergy, 3 were professional people from the community (lawyers, accountants, business owners) and 3 were blue collar workers. You notice the majority was ALWAYS NON-MEDICAL. We were tasked with going over any new research studies in our center, and coming up with a document called an “Informed Consent”. The researcher always had a template for this from either the NIH or other agency or Big Pharma. But the committee went over it with a fine tooth comb. To make certain that the patient was being informed exactly what the study was and how it was being conducted, what the risks and benefits were, what to look out for, and who to call if there were problems. A complete chain of command for problems was essential. It was also vetted to make certain that every person on the committee could easily understand the language. There were usually on average of multiple dozens of revisions made. The entire document was retyped and reformatted by our staff and then sent to the investigators for their approval. This process almost always took 2-4 weeks.

Over time, Big Pharma has obtained more control over IRBs by moving Phase III and Phase IV clinical trials over to more cooperative private sector operators. A big motivating factor is that if an IRB (and historically there would be multiple local/regional IRBs supervising a clinical trial) suspended a study, every other IRB involved would have to be informed of the suspension and the reason why. Needless to say, that would have the potential to generate other suspensions or calls for revisions of study procedures midstream….which would be tantamount to having to go back to the drawing board. 1

One of the side effects was to weaken, and as appears to be the case here, effectively end IRB review and negotiation of consent forms.

Have a look at this image, which is at the top of every page of the Pfizer consent form:

The document is on the website of a research company that has engaged a doctor as the investigator and is working with Pharma companies to recruit patients. What is striking is that there is no attempt to pretend that the consent form is anything other than a Pfizer document. IM Doc stresses that every IRB he was ever involved with would at a minimum rework the drug company templates and create their own documents.

Confirming IM Doc’s view that this document was simply rubber stamped: The Pfizer ICD date is July 2, a Friday. The IRB “approval” date is July 7, the following Wednesday, after the Federal July Fourth holiday on Monday July 5. There is no way a request for changes in language could have been developed, sent to Pfizer, reviewed, and approved (or a letter explaining the rejection generated) in such short period.

Red Flags in the Consent Form

While one has to assume that this Pfizer form is pretty typical, it’s alarming as a statement of the disdain Big Pharma and its hired hands have for clinical trial participants.

As IM Doc described, what has happened over time is that the major drug companies have turned the IRB watchdogs into lapdogs. The evisceration of independent oversight has the effect of elevating the importance of the consent form as a vehicle of informing and protecting study participants. But the consent form retains its apparent original form of being a user-friendly document describing the clinical trial process and risks. The teeth were intended to be at the IRBs, not in the consent forms.

Nevertheless, the consent form is clearly meant to have legal significance, as in most importantly to shield Pfizer from liability. Yet it is slipshod and incomplete. For instance, it fails to define terms and is inconsistent in the way it refers to concepts, does not specify governing law, and has no dispute resolution process.

The latter issue matters because Pfizer says the study doctor will “provide or arrange for” medical treatment for what is refers to as a “study-related” or “research” injury (it at least does define “research injury” on p. 17, if not all that crisply). But what if a study participant thinks he has suffered a “research injury” and the study doctor disagrees? Or the participant believes the level of care Pfizer provided is inadequate?

It’s not hard to wonder if the sloppiness of this document is deliberate, that it’s the Big Pharma answer to Nigerian scam letter. As professor of information and spam expert Finn Brunton put it:

By making them really obviously fraudulent, you’re weeding out the skeptics. You’re only getting truly gullible responses.

This consent letter looks designed to put off the legally savvy…who could be effective trouble-makers if anything went seriously wrong.

Below are some eyebrow-raising provisions. Note that these shortcomings have the potential of impairing the health of participants and their close contacts, by not giving them the most complete information about whether the participant has Covid, as well as the completeness and integrity of this Covid booster study.

1. Unlike the Moderna clinical trials, where participants were checked for Covid weekly, Pfizer participants are tested for Covid-19 only if they report symptoms to a study doctor and then the doctor deems they warrant testingThat assures asymptomatic cases will not be tracked.

Given that the CDC has raised its alert on the Delta variant to DefCon 1, based on evidence that asymptomatic patients carry Covid in their noses at the same level as symptomatic victims, the study data-gathering does not reflect current public health concerns.

2. Study participants, and importantly, their doctors, do not have access to any of their test information or samples from the trial, including if they report Covid symptoms and the study doctors run a test. Pfizer makes no commitment to tell them if they have a positive test result. They are instructed to get their own test from their MD if they think they have Covid.2/sup> But participants agree to let Pfizer obtain information from their doctor and any medical provide about care the participant receives.3

3. Pfizer can remove participants who seek emergency room care on their own. The document instructs participants repeatedly to contact the study doctor “immediately” if they suffer any of the listed Covid-19 symptoms. Note that the “immediately” means “Pfizer first”. That means if you contact your own medical professional first about one of the long list of Covid symptoms, you have violated Pfizer’s directives and can be removed from the study (p. 16):

The study doctor or BioNTech/Pfizer may also decide to take you off the study vaccine and/or remove you from the study (even if you do not agree) in the following situations:
• You are unable or unwilling to follow the instructions of the study;

While we are harping on sloppiness, did you catch “The study doctor or BioNTech/Pfizer may also decide to take you off the study vaccine”? Huh? This is a one-shot trial. “Take you off the study vaccine” instead appears to contemplate withholding a shot from non-complaint participants. In other words, this looks like language from the consent forms from the clinical trial for the original two-shot regime that wasn’t cleaned up for this study.

And if this isn’t what Pfizer means, that language is still defective. “Take you off the study vaccine” is meant to be punitive. Trial subjects shouldn’t have to guess what that means.

Now back to the issue of trial participants making emergency room visits after getting the third Pfizer injection. This is not a theoretical concern. We know of one participant who received a shot and in less than 24 hours had a high temperature plus debilitating digestive and neurological distress and went to the emergency room in haste. I am told this subject was escorted to the ER. That makes it unlikely the participant was alert enough to say “Oh, have Pfizer sort out my ER visit” even if that level of delay didn’t appear to be health-jeopardizing.4/sup>

Thus thiis participant did not “follow the instructions of the study” if as I infer the individual didn’t have Pfizer “arrange for” care.

To put this more directly: the odds are not trivial that participants who had severe side effects would go to the ER and worry about Pfizer later. Any who behaved this way could be excluded from the study. In other words, Pfizer has the opportunity, and clearly already has the motive, to avoid reporting so-called Stage 4 (potentially life threatening) reactions by invoking this provision of their consent form.5

4. The study is designed to minimize reporting of side effects. Remember that the study doctor is to be contacted only in the event of Covid-19 symptoms, and not other symptoms that have been attributed to the vaccines, like worsening of autoimmune symptoms or early and very heavy menstrual periods. From p. 8:

COVID Illness e-diary
At your first visit, you will either be given an “e-diary” (similar to a mobile phone), or you will download an e-diary application (‘app’) to your smart phone if you have one. You will also be given a thermometer. The study team will provide training on how to use the e-diary and thermometer.

The e-diary has questions related to any potential COVID-19 symptoms that you have.
You will need to complete the COVID-19 illness e-diary once a week for the whole time you are in the study, or until your study doctor tells you that you no longer need to complete it, to report if you have any COVID-19 symptoms or not. You will also need to complete the COVID-19 illness e-diary if you have COVID-19 symptoms outside of the weekly question.

You may receive alerts to the device or your own smartphone to remind you to complete the e-diary.

The e-diary is secure, and your confidentiality will be maintained.

In other words, the consent form does not describe any mechanism for reporting side effects. And even if participants try using the “Covid Illness e-diary” for this purpose, weekly the weekly format will favor under-reporting of symptoms during first 1-3 days6

Other Issues with the Consent Form

These concerns are not as dramatic but are still worth logging:

1. This clinical trial is not double blind. Is Pfizer too broke to do the extra work to execute a study at the highest research standard?

This is an ‘observer-blind study’, which means that you and the study doctor will not know whether you are receiving the study COVID-19 Vaccine or placebo injection, but the person who gives you the injection will know because the COVID-19 Vaccine and placebo do not look the same. The person that gives you the injection will not be able to talk about it with you. In case of urgent need, the study doctor can learn quickly whether you have received COVID-19 Vaccine or placebo.

Clever Hans the horse could read unintended non-verbal cues plenty well.

2. Not only are pregnant and at-risk-of-becoming pregnant women excluded, so to are men who might impregnate a woman. Tubal ligation, anyone? P. 14, emphasis original:

If you are able to have children and you are sexually active, you must use birth control consistently and correctly for at least 28 days after you receive your last vaccination. This applies to men and women who take part in this research study. The study doctor will discuss with you the methods of birth control that you should use while you are in this research study and will help you select the method(s) that is appropriate for you. The study doctor will also check that you understand how to use the birth control method and may review this with you at each of your research study visits.

Birth control methods, even when used properly are not perfect. If you or your partner becomes pregnant during the research study, or you want to stop your required birth control during the research study, you should tell the study doctor immediately. You may be withdrawn from the research study if you stop using birth control or you become pregnant.

If you are a male, you will not be allowed to donate sperm for at least 28 days after your last vaccination.

These restrictions seem at odds with a June 2021 of this New England Journal of Medicine article.. It starts by explaining that pregnant women are elevated risk for bad outcomes if they contract Covid compared to women who aren’t pregnant:

Therefore, clinicians relied on developmental and reproductive animal data from Moderna that showed no safety concerns, and there was no biologically plausible reason that the mRNA technology would be harmful in pregnancy…

Among 827 [V-safe] registry participants who reported a completed pregnancy, the pregnancy resulted in a spontaneous abortion in 104 (12.6%) and in stillbirth in 1 (0.1%); these percentages are well within the range expected as an outcome for this age group of persons whose other underlying medical conditions are unknown. A total of 712 pregnancies (86.1%) resulted in a live birth, mostly among participants who received their first vaccination dose in the third trimester. Among live-born infants, the incidences of preterm birth (9.4%), small size for gestational age (3.2%), and congenital anomalies (2.2%) were also consistent with those expected on the basis of published literature. There were no neonatal deaths. These are reassuring data based on reports from pregnant women mostly vaccinated in the third trimester.

…and with a March article in Nature that summarized other research.

If Pfizer wants to calm concerns about possible reproductive risk from taking its Covid vaccine, this is not the way to go about it.

Before you attempt to defend Pfizer, recall that it has a record before of playing fast and loose, including paying one of the largest criminal fines ever imposed on a drug company for the arthritis drug Bextra. It would not be hard for Pfizer to develop a legally sound and clearer consent form, or test all participants weekly for Covid, or inform participants if they test positive for Covid. But God forbid anyone interfere with Pfizer’s lock on the information flow, even if the result puts patients at risk.

And more generally, this consent form speaks volumes about the care in which Pfizer has placed people’s lives when evaluating these vaccines. It’s not hard to conclude this also represents the care Pfizer is taking to assure the vaccines are safe for you. Hire a bunch of local physicians at thousands of dollars a pop, and have an IRB rubber stamp the protective documents like an expense receipt. And set up the study so that if any participant sees a doctor they chose rather than Pfizer about Covid or a possible bad reaction, they can be excluded.
_____

1 More background from IM Doc:

Big Pharma has hated this system since the beginning. They tried to sabotage it in any way they could. At the same time, an entirely different approach began to be more common. For Phase III and Phase IV trials, Big Pharma began to pull away from big academic centers and big hospitals, and employ local physicians to do all the patient recruitment and research work often right out of their offices. Initially, the same IRBs were used – however, the rapid turnover pace that Pharma wanted was just not happening, so large centralized IRBs came into existence. Big Pharma had also become very tired of what they felt was pesky interference in their trials.

These were national IRBs – for profit corporations – often approving hundreds of trials a week. I will leave it to the reader to ascertain for themselves how thoroughly these trials were evaluated for problems. The two biggest ones were known as Western IRB and Copernicus.

At the same time this was going on, the uptake of “research” grew into a big business for community physicians. Many often made hundreds of thousands a year on this type of work. Each patient recruited in a trial would be rewarded by Big Pharma of often 5-10 thousand dollars. The patients of course got nothing. They were enticed with the promise of being put on an awesome new study drug – but as I found out so often – no one likely discussed with them the concept of a placebo – either the physician or the IRB. A practice would have hundreds of patients enrolled in trials, and often, the only employees doing any kind of follow up or paperwork on these patients were the same ones harried with all kinds of regular work in a physicians’ office. And unlike before in the academic IRB model, there was absolutely no follow up or concern given to the subjects by these national IRBs. NONE AT ALL. Eventually, many physicians doing this kind of work gave up clinical medicine and began to do this full time. It is highly lucrative and very little time is involved for them.

On multiple occasions, when I was the chairman of the IRB, our hospital IRB got dragged into a fiasco because a patient had a bad outcome in one of these trials approved by a national IRB. And the hospital made it mandatory that for the community physician to retain privileges – he had to hand his disaster over to the local IRB. What was invariably found was sloppy work, virtually no records, and certainly no meaningful follow up with the patients. Indeed, an example of the sloppy work can even be found on this document presented by Yves. What kind of business would have a confidential document laying around on the Internet for all to see?

You can read all about this process here or in many other places across the Internet. The complete domination of these outside IRBs has now been assured.

2 P. 9:

The result from this nose swab will be provided to the study doctor once it is available, but this will take some time, and cannot be used to diagnose if you have COVID-19. This is why it is important that you contact your usual provider if you have COVID-19 symptoms and think you need medical care.

3 This qualifier on p. 27 is ambiguous and not satisfactory:

What are your rights to your personal information?
You may have the right to access your personal information that is held by the study site.

However, by signing this authorization, you agree that your right to access certain of your information held by the study site will be suspended until after the study is over. After the study is finished, your right to access such information will be reinstated.

This section discusses “personal information” and “certain of your information.” Other parts of the consent form discuss “health information”. None of these terms are defined. This section can mean whatever Pfizer wants it to mean.

Oh, and there isn’t a clear duration of the study either. P. 5, emphasis original: “People taking part will be in this study who are given COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) will be in the study for about 1 year.

4 P. 17:

If you are injured or get sick because of being in this research, call the study doctor immediately. If you experience a research injury, your study doctor will provide or arrange for medical treatment. BioNTech/Pfizer will cover the costs of this treatment. A research injury is any physical injury or illness caused by your participation in the study.

5 As the post discusses shortly, Pfizer also requires sexually active men to use birth control methods approved by the study, review with the doctor that they know how to use them properly, continue to use them for 28 days after their shot, and “may” review the birth control practices at regular sessions with the study doctor. How many men do you think will be as compliant as the consent form requires? While the main point of these provisions is to make sure no way, no how can any pregnancy bad outcomes be pinned on Pfizer, non-compliance with the birth control requirements, even if they didn’t result in a pregnancy, could also serve as a basis for removal from the study.

6 This is a well-documented effect of the “empathy gap,” when individuals in “hot” agitated states can’t relate to what it is like to be in a “cold” detached state, and vice versa. One manifestation is people who are not currently in pain or discomfort typically do not fully recall how bad it was when they were miserable. From Wikipedia:

Hot-cold empathy gap is also dependent on the person’s memory of visceral experience. As such, it is very common to underestimate visceral state due to restrictive memory. In general, people are more likely to underestimate the effect of pain in a cold state as compared to those in the hot state.

 
IM Doc

All I would add is when I was on IRBs, someone like Yves was exactly who we were looking for to join the committee. Someone who could look through these documents and ask multiple important questions just like she has here. Non-medically trained insights were often critical.

The difference in our IRB then and this IRB now – the committee would have addressed these concerns, made changes to the documents as voted on by the majority and then submitted theses changes back to the the company like Pfizer.

If they did not want to address the issues, our answer would have been See You Later. Or at least some reasonable compromise would have occurred.

But that was a different era.
 

Cocomaan

I’ve sat on IRBs in higher ed in my time as well. Earned my CIP from PRIM&R. Mostly social behavioral research but strayed into FDA sometimes. I don’t like the Western IRB/centralized for profit system either. Academic medical centers have their lumps but they’re also bound by mission.

It’s an INSTITUTIONAL review board, meaning you pull people from your institution to review protocols. This gives you local flavor while regs and internal policies are also empowering the board for independent work. The regs specifically look for non scientists (like myself) on the committee, as well as local community members. Outsourcing IRB activity is, at the least, not following in the spirit of regulation.

I’ve reviewed at least a few thousand consent forms in my career, again, mostly behavioral research. What I’ve always stressed, and what is in regulation and guidance, is clarity and maintaining a low reading level, grades 6-8. obfuscation as described in the post is something I’d crack down on.

The informed consent document is the most important ethical piece of any trial, no matter how benign. Screwing it up is tantamount to unethical behavior.

Unfortunately, IRBs have, at the level of this vaccine, become disempowered, whereas in non medical centers they’re far overpowered for the risk level of the studies they oversee. I’ve seen out of control boards in the small institution context.

 
  1. Cocomaan

    Sorry to reply to myself, but the disempowerment of the most important IRB oversight and the draconian oversight of the smallest IRBs is going to hurt research and development in the long term, because of a lack of trust.

    An IRB has to walk a delicate line of slowing down research for ethical review but also helping investigators understand risk. We are going in strange directions here.

     
  2. IM Doc

    The problem you allude to was a very important determinant in the development of the really bad research system we have created.

    There were indeed way too many IRBs at way too many really small local hospitals. Some of these IRBs would have made Chairman Mao blush. And they were often way out over their skis with the research going on. The answer was not to ditch the entire IRB system. The answer would have been for the FDA to insure that criteria were in place for institutions only to do research they were capable of following and to have qualified people doing the research and the oversight. That was not done and here we are today with this mess.

    The other issue you bring up that in my mind is absolutely paramount is TRUST.

    In our world today we have dozens/hundreds of independent non-affiliated investigators. We have the Big Pharma rubber stamped IRB in another time zone across the country. FYI, many of these IRBs are owned by Guess Who – venture and vulture capitalists. And we have everyone involved knowing if too many problems happen or too many questions asked, Big Pharma will just erase you from their list of investigators (that is exactly what happens by the way). Your gravy train will end.

    So, in that environment today, if there is a death or complication, there is no local IRB. Nope – in the case of these vaccines, it gets reported to a faceless computer program called VAERS. It may or may not be reported correctly, the employees may get around to it next year. Some inexperienced manager may decide it has no merit. And that is the nightmare we find ourselves in today. Everyone hears about complications all the time, but no one, not even the CDC seemingly, knows how to appropriately monitor or react with them.

    Compare this to 20 years ago on my IRB. Any hints of complications were thoroughly documented by the research nurses. The patient’s charts were made available anonymously to every board member. Those board members were Lawyer Bob, Preacher Bill, Trixie at the Dairy Queen and your postman. There were enough real people to make a difference in getting questions asked. The local investigators and even sometimes the Big Pharma people were required to present themselves and explain the problems and offer solutions. There was no nebulous complication list on a vague national website. Only if the Board was satisfied would things continue. The entire process engendered trust.

    Look around you now. What is horribly missing? I would say the majority of Americans have zero trust in our medical systems at this critical time. I understand that this is a national crisis. Rapid movement is essential. But the old system did indeed manage rapid movement and expedited reviews all the time. I was there.

    I am going to make a prediction. When the roll is called up yonder and this has passed us by, the term “Operation Warp Speed” is going to enter the infamous lexicon of “The Gulf of Tonkin”, “Gallipoli” and “Dunkirk”. I am also very confident that my profession is going to get a long-needed reckoning not unlike the Flexner Report of a century ago.

     
    1. cocomaan

      100% agree with you. Baby and bathwater thrown out.

      We cannot afford to have this system become dysfunctional. It is about the protection of human subjects, first and foremost. The benefits of research must arise AFTER the Do No Harm principle is applied.

      This national conversation is inspiring me to finally undertake a project I’ve been meaning to work on: a sort of novelized look at the Belmont Report (link for those unfamiliar), delving into the drama that caused it, the players involved, and the eventual production of the report.

      We’re straying from our source material in this country, and it’s scary. Maybe it’s time for a reminder of why we did all this in the first place.

      The answer would have been for the FDA to insure that criteria were in place for institutions only to do research they were capable of following and to have qualified people doing the research and the oversight. That was not done and here we are today with this mess.

      I still remember when we were all awaiting DHHS’s reforms of the IRB review criteria for expedited and exempt studies. When the rule change came through, it was an absolute disaster and implementation took another two years. It’s leveled out somewhat, but that was under the Obama administration, which supposedly was forward-looking in terms of managing the bureaucracy. A local IRB I contract with for administrative purposes is STILL smoothing out the 2018 rule change.

       
      1. marku52

        There is a paper linked to by the Dark Horse folks, an investigation of the first 250 vaccine deaths reported into VAERS. Investigators tried to nail down what actually happened to these people (well, other than “they died”).

        Most reports were from people associated with the health care industry, so it wasn’t random folks stuffing noise into the system. For the over 65 age group, 50% of deaths occurred within 48 hours of vaccination, so pretty clear what happened there. In fact, only about 20% of the deaths could be clearly found NOT to be from the vaccine. Also, the Doses Per Death has fallen from about 220million doses for one death, down to about 5million. Huh. This sudden drop began in 2018, so something other than COVID maybe going on there.

        You would think data like that would lead someone at the FDA to see what might be going on there. Apparently not. According to the Dark Horse pair, even though only about 20% had either COVID positive tests, or symptoms, the reg agency has logged them all (all 250) as COVID deaths.

        Way to make us believe in your data.

        Paper is here
        https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352837543_Analysis_of_COVID-19_vaccine_death_reports_from_the_Vaccine_Adverse_Events_Reporting_System_VAERS


IM Doc

This is just my opinion.

I know from talking to numerous patients daily that work related or social vaccine mandates are just not going to work. This is true for the vast majority of the vaccine hesitant I see every day.

I do not feel these elites have really thought this all through.

Because of the immense bumbling and the orgy of lies, these people are just not going to do it. So I guess they will be fired, and those that cannot find other employment (not very difficult in the economy right now to find other work) are going to join the already massive homeless problem.

What really bothers me is the next step that they must take if they pursue this strategy. Something like calling out the National Guard, holding people down and forcing the shots in. I can only imagine what would happen in the South – places like Joplin or Baton Rouge. But, my God, what is going to happen when they start into inner city Atlanta or Houston and start doing this to the minorities. Again, if they keep going down the road they are on, this is exactly where we will be.

I am not sure the law enforcement authorities will be obliging themselves to follow the elites over that cliff. Oh, the elites will have CNN covering it as “mostly peaceful” – but I do not think that is going to work this time.

Even beginning to go down this path like they are now is all the proof I need to know that these people have completely lost their marbles. We are being led to the abyss by complete numbskulls. I do not believe they have a thing to be ashamed of when compared to the Romanovs or the French nobility circa 1785.

Just my two cents. Lord help us all. They really do seem to want a civil war.
 

Phillip Cross

“Something like calling out the National Guard, holding people down and forcing the shots in. ”

Are you for real? As if.

Forced vaccination is the new critical race theory. A scary story to get the base riled up.

 
  1. campbeln

    I was in a local firearms store in early March 2020. We have a 14 day waiting period so I asked what happens if they are ordered to close, how would I pickup my purchase.

    They laughed at the suggestion that they could be ordered to close.

    I picked up my purchase on the first day of the ordered lockdowns and the guy I asked recognized me and remembered my “ridiculous” question. We exchanged an understanding nod.

    At this point, I put NOTHING past them.

     
  2. IM Doc

    I now consider myself a “former” Dem. My wife and I more than once in our lives have sat on a dais with Democratic Presidents and First Ladies. So, please do tell, who is my base?

    They are investing quite a bit of political capital in these vaccine mandate declarations. There are many many of my colleagues who are horrified because unlike the PMC elite class we actually sit with and talk with these patients all day long.

    When they have invested all this political capital, and it does not work, truly, what is left for them to do? They either totally lose face or call out the cannons. If these mandates fail, there is little else for them to do. One thing about decadent elites that I have observed is they do not lose face for the serfs.

    So, Mr. Cross, please with all your discussions you are having with patients all day – what do you think is going to happen when this does not work?

    Just FYI – the IDSA has now moved the goalposts once again – it seems we now have to vaccinate 90% of the population to reach herd immunity. How many of the members of the IDSA (Infectious Disease Society of America) have actually read the foundational textbook in Infectious Disease – Mandell? That is the accumulated wisdom and knowledge of the specialty. In the very first section of the coronavirus chapter and again in the respiratory virus chapter, it is explicitly stated that herd immunity does not exist in these viruses. If it does, it is only very transitory and the viruses are back again in the next season. I would argue that the evidence we already have is very supportive of what the textbook is stating. Things are much more severe with COVID because it is novel to us – we are still trying to figure each other out. So why are they pushing this so hard? I have no idea. But it seems in our climate today – that mandating vaccination programs to reach a 90% threshold that the foundational textbook says is pixie dust is the height of hubris.

    I am all for vaccination of high risk individuals. I am begging people all day. I am not so OK with taking away people’s livelihoods when there is little evidence that even if we reach the goal of 90% now that it would matter for longer than a few weeks/months.

just for fun, I'm including this snippet because this guy is always singing the praises of the vaccines (and trying to contradict IM Doc) and it amuses me to see him brought down a notch:

Phillip Cross

It’s really not that complicated.

The data we have seen shows that, while some portion of vaccinated people do end up being carriers, they also have a greatly reduced risk of developing a severe case and dying.

Based on the data from Israel and the UK; if everyone was vaccinated then the r0 would be halved, and hospitalizations and deaths would be an order of magnitude lower than if nobody had a shot.

 
  1. tegnost

    Leaving the mask mandate in place would have been the right thing to do. It’s this desire to punish the unvaxxed, even though many of them aren’t even eligible, such as children and justifiably concerned, such as young women thinking babies, and a wide array of others. The unvaxxed is not a monolith, despite the hand wringing of those worshipping that particular obsession. If they cared they would have left the mask mandate in place saying it’s a shared sacrifice, rather than getting rid of masks and forcing an experimental product, which you can see that it is, if you can tear your eyes away from that monolith. It’s become like hanging with alcoholics…it’s 10:30 and you want to go home and they’re like ” Everybody has to do a shot! All for one and one for all! ARRRR!”

     
    1. Phillip Cross

      I am not concerned whether you, or anyone, takes it or not.

      The facts are clear, if you are at risk, the vaccine helps a lot. That’s why I find it upsetting seeing people spread disinformation, especially when they imply they are speaking in an expert capacity when they do it.

      How many elderly and infirm are going to read this stuff, not get the shot, and then die as a result?

       
      1. hunkerdown

        Those are judgments, not facts. That you successfully rehearse moral indignation discourse affects nothing.

         
        1. Phillip Cross

          Masks get taken off, vaccines don’t, and there is strong evidence that the vaccine works, so they want people to take it to avoid stress on the economy and the health system.

          The only strong evidence for ivermectin comes from tropical, third world countries where the recipients may have just had their worms cleared, and been better able to fend off COVID-19 as a result. Does that translate to temperate, first world nations with functional sewers and clean running water? Maybe, but I haven’t seen anything of substance to support the big claims many make about it.

           
          1. Yves Smith

            IM Doc’s county has a higher rate of vaccine deaths than Covid deaths as a result of his hospital using Ivermectin. And his population skews very affluent and health-minded, so I doubt you’ll find many with worms.

            Your increasingly emotional and factually strained assertions suggest you have a personal stake. This is what happens when people are losing arguments.

            Ivermectin has one of the best safety profiles in the world. It’s safer than aspirin. Literally billions of doses have been administered. And it’s cheap. Why not let people use it? And why get so agitated at the prospect of it being used widely?

            And I am tired of minimizing the vaccine side effects. Our aide had to go to the ER in less than 24 hours. Not only did the ER attribute her reaction to the vaccine, the attending MD also said if she had gotten there much later, she would have had serious consequences. Everyone I know with an autoimmune disease has had their symptoms get markedly worse, including a young MD who was very gung ho. This is confirmed by practitioners who’ve seen the same thing. But for most GPs, this will be a handful in their practice.

            It’s one thing to say the vaccines make sense for most given the risk/return, but your black and white advocacy glosses over real issues. And the CDC and the press not tolerating discussion of sub-populations that are having reactions reeks of propaganda and having something to hide. It’s feeding concerns rather than assuaging them.

             
            1. Phillip Cross

              I would hardly call it black or white advocacy. I said, if you are at risk of a severe case of COVID-19, the vaccine protects you in most cases.

              I would prefer that my elderly relatives took something that offered proven protection, than take a leap of faith with ivermectin, but each to their own!

              It may not be poisonous, but if it doesn’t provide the strong effect that the enthusiasts claim, than that’s where the danger comes in. A kevlar-free bullet proof vest won’t kill you by itself, but I wouldn’t want to take a bullet wearing one. No matter what I read on a message board.

               
              1. Yves Smith

                You are now engaging in bad faith argumentation. You’ve shifted grounds markedly from your blanket assertion to saying that the vaccines “work’ (and what is that supposed to mean?) to now making a much MUCH narrower claim, that you’d favor its use for your elderly relatives. Help me!

                And you are ALSO imputing a position that no one here has taken, of using Ivermectin instead of a vaccine. Given that the efficacy of the supposed best in breed Pfizer vaccine is down to 39% in Israel due to some combination of lower efficacy after 5-6 months and lower efficacy v. Delta, and no third shot having yet completed clinical trials, why not allow Americans to use Ivermectin until we have third dose data in? Can’t hurt, might help.

                What happens, as GM has said Moderna data has already shown, that the immune response to the third shot looks to be 50% of the initial immune response>? That means even if the third dose doesn’t provoke stronger short-term reactions (a known issue with second shot v. first), its protection will be weaker and wear off faster. Then what?

                You appear to have fallen in with the Biden/CDC position of putting all your eggs in the magic vaccine basket.

Phillip Cross

n = 89.

With a sample of 89 people, you could have given them Pop Rocks, and sometimes seen similar results. You would need to study thousands to get a representative sample of the 10m population of Israel.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Does your Pop Rocks comment also apply to Sequanavir – the very first protease inhibitor for HIV approved in 1995.. and the very first component of HAART? I am looking at the very first study that came out on it about 18 months earlier – the N was 44.

    Does your Pop Rocks comment also apply to carvedilol – a Beta 1 agonist for HTN – that is also used for CHF – the very first trial showing carvedilol had any benefit for patients with CHF had an N of 60.

    Both drugs saw wide wide usage and were/are very effective for their underlying condition. Of course – much further study was done on both of them – something that our officials seem absolutely hell bent not to do with ivermectin despite the overwhemingly positive signal coming from everywhere.

    And I could go on all day with all kinds of different pharmaceuticals.

    I guess the two that I mention above are Pop Rocks to you – but I have any number of dozens of patients that would beg to differ.
     

  1. IM Doc (in reply to the pop rocks guy Philip Cross above)

    You really don’t get it, do you?

    I could go on for the rest of the day with these examples but I will spare you all day – here are two.

    Sequanavir – the first approved HAART med for AIDS came out in summer of 1995. The first paper describing its use had an N of 44.

    Carvedilol a cardio specific beta blocker widely used for CHF now to increase the ejection fraction and make patients able to move and breathe again came out in the early 90s. It’s first paper had an N of 60. This one is even more important because at the time it was thought that using beta blockers in heart failure was tantamount to killing people.

    Both drugs have helped literally millions of patients. I can go on and on with similar trials for others.

    Small N in early papers is the rule and not the exception in medicine. Your comments reflect the fetish we have today that the only things that matter are “perfect” RCTs with 10000 subjects.

    The difference now as well is that historically compounds with amazingly positive signal like ivermectin has would have been immediately jumped on with big trials.

    I will ask you, why is that not happening now? There are literally dozens of historical examples where breakthrough meds were found this way and NOW we are literally turning our back on this process ….. please answer WHY?

antidlc

https://www.csis.org/analysis/conversation-dr-anthony-fauci-antiviral-program-pandemics

A Conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci on the Antiviral Program for Pandemics

Yes. I don’t know whether it’s going to be the home run that we got with HIV when we, in 1996 – the transforming year when we had the triple combination and we went from modest suppressant of virus to complete durable suppression of virus with HIV, which totally changed the landscape. But you know, I want some of the listeners if not all of them – because I know many of them already appreciated it – why it’s so important and a bit different than what we faced with HIV, Steve. And the reason is with HIV we’re talking about lifelong therapy for an individual to keep the virus suppressed to below detectable, to get the person to return to some form of normality. And we have been spectacularly successful.

We’re looking at a different type of a profile now. We’re looking at an orally administered maybe seven to 10 days, given to person who is early on in the course of their infection before you get to the cascade of events that lead to the aberrant activation, inflammatory response that kills people, because we know now from a lot of experience with the care of these individuals that if you can keep that virus from going to the upper airway, from going down into the lung and other organ systems, you can change what can be a devastating disease and make it an upper airway common cold type approach, which is really what we need to do. We only need to knock out that virus for about seven to 10 days, rather than lifelong, what we have to do with HIV.

The thing that I think is going to be a real somewhat of a game changer, Steve, is as soon as the FDA gives full approval for the vaccines, those people who are hesitant to get vaccinated because they perceive the emergency use authorization as not being proof enough that it’s safe and effective, even though we have ample, ample evidence that it’s highly effective and highly safe, I think you’re going to see more people get vaccinated. And then you’re also going to see enterprises feeling much more confident in local mandates for vaccines. You’re not going to see a central mandate coming from the federal government, but you’re going to see more universities, colleges, places of business who, once they get the cover of an officially approved vaccine, they’re going to start mandating vaccines. So we’re going to see an increase in vaccines, and that’s going to be the solution to the problem, because if you get the overwhelming majority of people vaccinated, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation now.

 
  1. IM Doc

    You must also note that he was really pushing research for vaccines for opiate addiction (yes you read that correctly) as recently as 3-4 years ago.

    He has never met anything that a vaccine would not fix. I have been following his career for a long time. He alludes to the HAART therapy for AIDS in the above comments. At least in part, not the whole, the reason that those medications took so long to come to fruition is because he was so hellbent on an HIV vaccine for so many years early on. It took the air out of research for antivirals for nearly a decade. Despite multiple early warnings that we just simply did not have the technology at the time for a vaccine for HIV. The grand rounds about this topic at the time were numerous and Fauci did not come out looking so well. Even now almost 40 years later, has there been an effective HIV vaccine developed?

    It was not just him that did not shine in that era. People like Nancy Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein did things during the AIDS crisis in San Francisco that should have banned them for life from public service. But yet in this country, we always seem to be OK with horrible people failing upwards. I have never figured it out. If you need to know how you could have predicted that Nancy Pelosi would be such a horrible stain on our republic right now – all you have to do is look at any of the written histories of the AIDS crisis in San Francisco. She is not alone in the shame, believe me.

    My profession and this country may not have it within them to fix the overwhelming problems going on. But one thing is for sure, no one person, whether Fauci or whoever else, should have anywhere near the power that he has over the entire medical establishment. This is the power of the purse strings. I talk to leading national ID figures frequently. I do not believe any of them would feel OK with the plans outlined in your quote above. They can say absolutely nothing or they will have all their grants pulled and their job in jeopardy in no time. It really is a bad situation.

     
    1. IM Doc

      Here is a basic description of the opioid addition vaccine.

      https://heal.nih.gov/news/stories/OUD-vaccine

      Let’s just say – things have not been very successful.

      Here is the NPR commentary on this –

      https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/08/10/542605039/a-vaccine-for-addiction-is-no-simple-fix

      The problem is the vaccine against the opioid (and others like nicotine etc) is also to varying degrees active against many different receptors. That is not a good scene.

Here, I'm not sure what article IM Doc is referring to:

IM Doc

I want to state this for the record again today. It is imperative now that non-medical people have perspective of medical history and traditions. I commented yesterday about this but it was late in the day.

This is about the above linked Israeli ivermectin paper.

A commenter yesterday downplayed it stating that the N is only 89. He felt that was all he needed to torpedo the whole effort.

Profoundly faulty and unscientific thinking. I would have given any student who said anything like that in rounds an F for the day.

I will explain. I could go on all day with examples – but here are just two:

Sequanivir – the first approved HAART drug for AIDS came out in 1995. It’s first paper had an N of 44.

Carvedilol, the cardioselective beta blocker used now to increase heart performance in CHF had an N of 60 on its first paper. In an era when using beta blockers on patients with CHF was viewed as murder.

Both drugs have been used by millions. Again I could go on all day with examples.

I have seen this “the N is only 89” tactic used again and again this year. Be aware people who do that are not arguing in good faith and they have zero perspective of medical history.

Low N numbers in early trials of any medications are the overwhelming rule in medicine and not the exception.

The insistence that a trial is poor because the N is 89 is part of the same fetish that only RCTs with tens of thousands of subjects are any good. This thought process is deluded.

Dozens if not hundreds of medical breakthroughs have been birthed with papers with Ns much less than 89.

The big difference in what is going on now is that compounds with amazingly positive signal in these early studies like ivermectin is showing would have been jumped on instantly and larger trials started months ago.

I think we should all reflect on not only why this is not being done but also the exact opposite is being done – an active censoring and propaganda campaign.

The medical history chapters on this COVID interlude are going to be for the ages. This is just not going to look good in comparison to Sir Alexander Fleming, Jonas Salk, or Banting & Best.

  1. GrumpyOldMan

    Sorry Doc, but your argument nets you the same F that you’re so eager to give out. Your medical knowledge unfortunately doesn’t seem to translate well to Statistics, and your arguments are, ironically, “profoundly faulty and unscientific.”

    The gist of it should be that the initial trial at N=89 is fine to point out a strong enough effect (and their effect is fairly strong, 72% in the ivermectin branch versus 50% in the control one for viral load reduction, for ex.) so that the likelihood of different distributions is high in spite of the rather large confidence intervals. This makes it worth investigating with larger samples at the very least.

    Instead, you used false analogies – the historical examples are irrelevant for this trial and the approval in those cases was likely not based on those initial papers alone; also “hundreds of medical breakthroughs have been birthed with papers with Ns much less than 89” tells one nothing about the number of false effects published in “papers with Ns much less than 89.” Perhaps you’ve heard of the reproducibility problem that plagues the published corpus in a lot of fields, including the medical one. Each paper should stand or fall on its own merit, anything else is an example of “unscientific thinking.”

    The unfortunate truth here is that supporting the right conclusion with wrong arguments is just as bad as supporting the wrong conclusion with the wrong arguments – you might as well flip a coin for it. It’s not just bad science, it’s bad for crafting policy decisions, for building trust, and so on and so forth. Please stop doing it.

     
    1. IM Doc

      My goodness.

      When I was a little kid and my grandma caught me saying absurd things, she would often sit on the porch in the hot summer evening and look me in the eye and state the following – “When the hot air is blowing, sometimes a girl just needs to sit on the porch and fan herself.” Then I would be often asked to go get a switch.

      Your comment somehow brought me that flashback.

      I have been doing medical statistics for three decades now. Long before the advent of “Evidence Based medicine” we were actually doing REAL statistics not the current format forced upon us all by Big Pharma.

      And the fact of the matter is that medical research by and large follows the same pattern especially when pharmaceutical or therapeutic procedures are employed. We do SMALL studies first based on hypotheses and findings coming out of basic research. Once signal is obtained in both efficacy and safety, ever larger studies are done until we do indeed very large randomized controlled studies. This is the way it is – and I am sorry you do not agree. You must be living in a different world. Not just this study – but multiple dozens of others have found very positive signals with ivermectin for COVID. And the safety of this agent is out there for 30 years for all to see. A few dozen real problems out of billions of doses given – and most of those were the Jarisch Herxheimer reactions because it worked so well on worms and other parasites.

      The fact we are not doing further studies on this drug is a supreme example of this entire establishment not practicing the tenets of science and medicine but instead practicing the tenets of business.

      The “false analogies” I used were actually very carefully chosen. Along with hundreds and possibly thousands of other agents/procedures when they were first being studied in humans, the N was very small. One of those “false analogies” is an antiviral just like what we are currently dealing with, the other is a drug with great amounts of trepidation at the time being safe/effective in the intended group. I could have easily added things like Bactrim for PCP or Zithromax and doxycycline for H pylori – they all started the same way – with a very small N.

      What would be your choice for a “true analogy”. By that comment alone, I am not sure you are undertstanding the entire point.

      And I will add that it is Big Pharma itself that is the great traitor to this concept. Please go read the book “Bad Pharma” by Ben Goldacre – it is chocked full of example after example of how Pharma does these early studies with a low N, the results are not what they wanted, and the studies never see the light of day. Furthermore, they have become expert at manipulating study methods and arms to make their products look way better than they every would – or worse making other drugs look worse. The “big study” prospects that I have been able to read for COVID/Ivermectin appear to be in that category, purposely being designed to not be fully transparent about efficacy or lack thereof.

      Again – your statement about papers published with “false effects” with numbers of less than 89 is in today’s world almost always a role played by Big Pharma. They have become expert at disappearing things that do not fit the narrative they are trying to push about their product.

      I would just say again. This is EARLY research on ivermectin. If you cannot see the overwhelmingly positive signals coming from these dozens of papers, you do not understand statistics. In medicine’s past, when this was seen from a drug or procedure, people would have been falling over themselves to really get the compound into bigger studies to really see what was going on.

      We are not doing this at all. We are censoring, suppressing, confusing and propagandizing. We are not practicing medicine or science. WE ARE PRACTICING BUSINESS.

       
    2. Yves Smith

      How DARE you insult a respected commentor, whose articles here have been praised by professors of medicine at top universities. As IM Doc explained, your assertions are false and you demonstrate no knowledge of statistics. This is basically a long and unsubstantiated finger wag, compounded by a groundless personal attack. Take your bile elsewhere.

       
IM Doc

I want to make something very clear that I failed to do so in the original comment.

I am referring to EARLY trials. When drugs are coming out of basic research into the clinical research that is then warranted because something in the or early clinical research was very strong. No one in their right mind would enroll tens of thousands in these early studies – these are put in place to see if there is indeed a signal – and more importantly to follow through on any signals on safety issues. THEN we proceed with really large clinical trials with hundreds or thousands of subjects. Those are then the sentinel studies that we see in places like NEJM and JAMA. Please note – there are lots of things that look very good in early studies that do not pan out. But this is one of the paths that new things do get discovered – small trials – lead to bigger trials – lead to sentinel trials – lead to the standard of care. My point being – we are very early in Ivermectin research for COVID. These small studies with bright signals should be driving larger trials with more statistical power. SHOULD BE. THAT IS HOW IT IS DONE. We do not disparage studies in this stage of the game because the N is small. The fact that this work and this process is not being done for ivermectin is a very strong indicator that we are not practicing medicine or science. We are practicing business. It is that simple.

But even fundamental sentinel studies found in NEJM or JAMA do not have to have large Ns to be considered landmark. One example that comes right off my head is Professor Warren Jackman’s landmark study for catheter ablation of bypass tracts causing rhythm problems. This was published in NEJM in the very late 80s or early 90s. He had less than 100 patients. Had we thrown that study out because of an insufficient N, the next 30 years would never have happened or been delayed. The initial work on that procedure was done only for a very rare heart condition called Wolff Parkinson White Syndrome. Because it was demonstrated to work so amazingly well in this small subject study and others like it, over the years, it has now become a standard of care for things much more common like A FIB. It is used probably 100s of times daily for A FIB patients and has helped tens of thousands. The procedure today is often just referred to as “ablation”.

Again, the strong signal from ivermectin is just that – a strong signal for benefit. Physicians my age have gone on much less during the AIDS pandemic for things that seemed just as promising. And as I have repeatedly stated, the signal has been repeated in my own practice. There really are no significant safety issues with ivermectin – and I was able to keep way more people out of the hospital during our fall/winter surge here than my colleagues who were not using it. To the point that I was asked by the administration of the hospital what I was doing – because in the crisis – they noted how many less patients of mine were being admitted to the hospital.
 

IM Doc

This week has been a bit busy – so I have just put the whole week into one big comment.

We continue to have quite a bit of infection in the community. In my own practice, I am usually seeing 5-15 cases a day of COVID. The majority of these cases are vaccinated breakthroughs. There have been 2 whole days this week where the entire day were all vaccinated breakthroughs. Please note – this is the outpatient side. Despite Dr. Walensky’s reassurance to Americans that these are very rare, this has not been my experience at all. These breakthroughs continue to happen in clusters. While the unvaccinated positives tend to be more isolated and far less likely to spread and sicken contacts. The clusters are almost always vaccinated as well. I have no explanation for this. It is my feeling the virus is trying to tell us something. This seems to be consistent with constant news reports of cluster events among the vaccinated all over the country.

The unvaccinated positives are likely underrepresented in my office sample. They are likely younger. They are likely to have no insurance or high copays so very hesitant to get tested. They are likely to get fired if they miss a day of work so they just do not want to know if they are positive. Furthermore, it seems that every effort has been made to make it very difficult for anyone to get tested. Why bother?

As far as the hospital – it remains about 50/50 vaccinated/unvaccinated. The percentage of vaccinated patients seems to be slowly creeping up daily. I am hearing from my friends all over the country that the same is true. You no longer hear about 1% vaccinated anymore in the hospital. A slow but surely increasing prevalence of the vaccinated in the hospitals. The vaccinated inpatients tend to be older and vaccinated at the beginning in DEC or JAN. The unvaccinated are younger – usually 40-60 – almost always with obesity or diabetes. Unlike the last wave, the majority of these patients are in and out in a day or two. I am not saying there are not sick people – there are. Just not nearly as many as before. This too is confirmed by my friends. The critically ill are few but are almost entirely made up of the unvaccinated. We have had but 2 vaccinated in the ICU this whole time. The stories you are hearing of crashed hospitals in the big cities are happening because large numbers of non-critical patients are being admitted and discharged – with continued large numbers coming into the ER. The other factor is staffing. Nurses have become depressed and are leaving in droves. And the ancillary staff in many places has been decimated by employees leaving because of the vaccine mandates. There is more at work than patient numbers by the panic porn that is all over the MSM.

The vaccines are clearly not working as promised. Large numbers of vaccinated patients are getting sick. I remember when I did the guest post back in December about the Pfizer trials. I was and am gravely concerned about the medical establishment in the guise of the Editors of NEJM referring to these miraculous vaccines, perfect in every way, as a “triumph”. There are lots of things in medicine the past decades that are indeed miracles. But calling something a “triumph” before a shot was in the first arm betrayed to me a certain level of hubris – and I knew in my heart at that very moment that Nemesis, Hubris’s best friend, would soon be making a visit.

We should all remember where the word TRIUMPH actually comes from. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whbI55Q1KB0

One of my very elderly classics professors in college had worked as an adviser to Hollywood during the “Sword and Sandals” extravaganza of the 1950s. In his opinion, that clip was from the film that got the whole concept of triumph closest to reality. Quo Vadis. The Roman General is on his chariot going through the streets of Rome, past the Vestal Virgins. The throngs are going ape. But there is something there in Rome that we are sorely missing today – a slave on the chariot holding the Crown of Gold over his head. And please note what the slave is whispering in his ear the whole time. In Latin the words were Memento Homo! Memento Mori!. In English that means – REMEMBER THOU ART BUT A MAN! – REMEMBER THAT THOU ART MORTAL! – Unlike the medical triumph of these perfect vaccines, the Roman triumph was done for things that were very well deserved. And with all the Hubris going around, do we ever need that slave in the chariot today……..

As our Ancient Greek forebears taught us, when Hubris is let loose in the world, the Gods would have but one remedy to clean up all the delusions and insanity, and that would be to let loose Nemesis.

And I am beginning to see a lot of Nemesis coming right down from the sky. These vaccinated patients that are sick are not very happy at all. Many of them are profoundly angry. The lies and misrepresentations are very soon going to start catching up with our leaders. And what I never dreamed would happen has begun to happen this week – close to half of my positive COVID patients – in an unsolicited manner are demanding to be placed on alternative therapy such as ivermectin. In a very angry manner.

I have no problem using this drug. I used it quite a bit in the first big crash in the fall and winter and started using it again about 6 weeks ago. Using the scientific method as I was so carefully trained to do decades ago, and with the limited tools I have, I have been able to make some observations.

Once a patient, vaccinated or not, becomes positive for COVID in my practice, my nurses or myself call them once in the AM and once in the PM. There is a form we fill out on each of these calls to describe their clinical condition with parameters – fever, congestion, shortness of breath, coughing, pulse ox, etc. When the patients have cleared every single one, we quit calling them. We usually have between 15-20 active cases this past few weeks daily. A pattern became very obvious very quickly in this process – and I have distilled it with 2 raw numbers. The Ivermectin patients are cleared of symptoms (N of 44) in average of 2.4 days. The Non-Ivermectin patients (N of 19) are cleared of symptoms after 5.7 days. Furthermore, on day 5 of the illness, we always have the patients go and get tested again. The Ivermectin patients have literally a 100% negative rate by Day 5. The non-Ivermectin patients have a 58% clearance rate by Day 5.

I want to make one thing very clear. This is the scientific method. These numbers are consistent with the overall signal that all kinds of studies are showing with this drug. However, I am just one clinician in one office. Nothing dispositive can be said or done with these numbers.

However, it is an indication of yet another complete fail on the part of our medical leaders. These signals have now been out there for about a year. It is at this point, a national embarrassment that nothing has been done to fully evaluate this drug. I will say again, our leaders are not practicing medicine, they are practicing business.

I have a moral obligation to my patients. I must always do what is in their best interest. Our MSM is screaming the panic porn daily about hospitals and critically ill. On the ground, I am seeing already an alarming incidence of post-COVID symptoms (mainly now brain fog, depression, suicidal thinking, and severe headaches) in many of these patients WHO HAVE BEEN VACCINATED and then were infected.

Dr. Fauci & Dr. Walensky and Pfizer/Moderna – your vaccines have FAILED these patients. They still got sick. In numbers that are alarmingly high compared to what was promised. Post-COVID syndrome is a real thing – as real as it gets – and again your vaccines have failed. You would tell us to do NOTHING. Your whole plan is seemingly VACCINE VACCINE VACCINE. Well, they failed. Is it not my obligation to do everything possible to spare these patients POST COVID syndrome? With a drug with decades of safety behind it? With all the signal behind how well it works? Confirmed by my own eyes in my own practice?

Patients and the general public are profoundly angry and are beginning to lose all faith in our medical establishment. I see it every day. Nemesis is indeed upon us. If the Biden Administration does not quickly act to chart another course, I guarantee you, Nemesis will soon be unleashed upon them. It is going to be Reagan/Mondale 1984 landslide all over again.
 

Not Even Wrong

I’d like to join in thanks, IM Doc, for all your time and effort to give us your informed view.

Are you hearing anything in the medical community about legal mandates for minors in some states after FDA approval, as a requirement to attend school?

I’d hoped the treatment of minors would be held to a higher standard of evidence and caution, given minors’ very distinct risk profiles, legal status, medical needs, and the general ethical obligation for their care.

Though adult mandates get most of the press, there’s plenty of legal precedent for minors in school, post-approval. The enforcement machinery is there. Vocal cadres of parents and staff assert that COVID-unvaccinated children endanger their school communities. Political appetite is strong– example, DeBlasio’s recent edict is already a de-facto mandate on minors.

Thanks again for your insights.

PS On your mention I ordered on eBay, used, Mandell 7th ed. for ~$12– all 20lbs & 4K pages of it. I’ll never pretend to have answers, but I hope to ask better questions.

 
  1. IM Doc

    This issue is rapidly becoming a very big mess.

    First of all – if you read some of the comments below, there is growing and alarming concern about the number of kids getting really sick from COVID which did not happen the last time. There is of course little evidence that vaccinating the kids would make them less likely to get this sick.

    There is also severe safety concerns in vaccinating kids. This is largely because we have seen the bad side effect issues grow in intensity as the subjects are younger. There is little hope this will not get worse with the kids. Many Western countries who are not as beholden to Big Pharma as the USA – Germany, Norway, and the UK for example – have taken one look at the data so far and said NO WAY ARE WE VACCINATING KIDS.

    This is going to be a hellacious experience for us all. My wife and I have school-age kids. We went to the first parent meeting of the year this past week. Mandated vaccination was discussed. A straw poll was conducted at the door of who will be allowing their kids to be vaccinated. The vote was 112-2 for NOT vaccinating their kids. It was clear to me a huge number of parents will be pulling their kids from school and home schooling if this is mandated. This could be a real blow to our entire public education system.

    I do not know the answer other than it is clear this will be a big huge mess. As far as FDA approval, anyone who takes approval by the FDA of any pharmaceutical after the debacle of the Alzheimer’s drug this past few weeks, is a moron.

    There is no way at all that safety issues have had any kind of time for full evaluation. NONE WHATSOEVER.
     

    IM Doc

    Oh and about Mandell – I believe that the one you are getting is a few editions ago. Still good to have around.

    The whole reason I brought up Mandell was the discussion of herd immunity in respiratory viruses.

    The whole “herd immunity” issue is the 2nd biggest lie that has been told to the American people. The biggest lie was the constant spouting of the Relative Risk Reduction of 95% in these vaccines as meaning that the patient was 95% protected. I have never heard a bigger lie in all my years of medicine.

    “Herd Immunity” in polio or measles is just that – you either through natural infection or vaccination have a process whereby the members of the herd cannot pass the virus to one another. It is a bulwark that will eventually completely stop the spread.

    That is not the way things work with respiratory viruses. They have a different relationship with our immune system. Your body does remember some things, so that each successive infection is likely to be less symptomatic but you will still likely get infected multiple times through your life. And you will be able to spread it to all around you when infected. In the setting of an acute pandemic with a novel agent – things are a bit different in the beginning. The agent and the immune system of both the hosts and collective humanity must do a dance for a little while to get used to one another. I have heard immunologists describe this as a “hot war.” This is what we are doing right now – and as you can see it can get very very ugly. Eventually, things calm down into a “Cold War”. The agent keeps coming back to each an every one of us. But is not nearly as lethal. COVID will eventually do this as well.

    This is most assuredly what will happen – and as you can tell has no relation to “herd immunity” as in the polio or measles virus that is being promised to the American people.

    It must be noted, we as humanity have never introduced a vaccine into a hot war like this ever before. No idea how that will affect the process in the long term. One thing is for certain – the same immunologists are now stating emphatically that we are just going to have to get used to living with COVID.

skk

Interesting. Thanks – a question – from the patient perspective:
Do your patients speculate where, when they got it ? Or more crudely who they got it from ?
and if they share their speculations, anything of generality one can come to ?

 
  1. IM Doc

    The vaccinated patients almost always come from a family cluster or some kind of social group or event – and most if not all the other people are vaccinated. They have no clue.
     

  1. Pelham

    In my estimation, IM Doc is the single best source of Covid information. Thank you. One question: At this stage, since my family and I are fully vaccinated, our biggest personal concern is focused on long-Covid. Your sample sizes are small, I understand, but have you observed any difference in the occurrence of long-Covid symptoms among those who’ve been treated with ivermectin and those who haven’t? And if long-Covid is just as likely regardless of ivermectin as a treatment, would you advise use of ivermectin as a prophylactic? Thank you.

     
    1. IM Doc

      I am keeping a very close eye on this situation with how the COVID positive patients on Ivermectin do going forward. I do not think enough time has passed for me to be really sure one way or the other – but when a pattern emerges I will be on here telling everyone – one way or the other.

  1. mtt1029

    Sir, I would like to thank you for all that you are doing here. With your commentaries you’ve done me great service and I wish that I could repay you in some fashion.

    I have two questions that I haven’t seen addressed (forgive me if you have covered them previously):

    1) Do you have any sense about whether the decline in the efficacy of the vaccines due to waning of antibody levels in the vaccinated (implied by your comment about Dec-Jan vaccinated driving current inpatient levels) or to the Delta variant having mutated around the vaccine?

    2) Amongst the MSM panic porn, there’s increasing reporting about children’s hospitals being full, etc., is this actually a real issue right now?

    Thank you.

     
    1. IM Doc

      I think there is little doubt that the effectiveness of the vaccines begins to wane after time. Thus, all the talk about boosters.

      As I stated somewhere else today, the children’s hospitals are indeed getting slammed. There is a raging RSV outbreak in which we are in exactly the wrong time of the year for that. But on top of that I am hearing that kids are getting really sick with COVID – way worse than the last surge. I do not have any kind of handle on accurate numbers – but when I get any kind of feeling will share.

      To be honest, this is really concerning to me – this kind of game change if this turns out to be significant is exactly what we do not want this virus to be doing right now.
       

  1. neo-realist

    The vaccinated inpatients tend to be older and vaccinated at the beginning in DEC or JAN.

    It’s possible that the neutralizing antibodies generated from the vaccines in those patients have dissipated after about a six month run. I think that if the vaccines weren’t working as promised, those patients would have been hospitalized earlier.

     
    1. IM Doc

      I think you are correct.
      However, I do not recall anyone saying in the initial rollout that 3-6 months would be the efficacy window. If this is anything like animal coronavirus vaccination attempts in the past, the next round of boosters will yield 2 months, the next round 1 month – you get the point. This is not a good sign. How many polio vaccines or measles vaccines have you had in your life? The flu shot is indeed annual. Influenza is a much less complicated virus, however, and corona viruses are one of the best families for mutation.

       
  2. gc54

    I have first-hand reports this weekend from a PhD nurse cousin of my spouse in Florida and a doc in North Carolina, both working hard in pediatric ICUs. Both ICUs are now full w/ COVID cases, the doc has all 7 of their ECMO machines in use constantly and other kids a little less far gone on ventilators. My neighbor is trying to get his 4 and 2 year old daughters into vaccine trials. Fearful because the eldest is in day care. We are both confronting large college classes starting in 10 days with no possibility of remote instruction because of administrative greed and the pent up desires of students who are being told that they really must vaccinate. 80% of faculty have been vaccinated, only 49% of staff even though free and time off work for a day or two with pay.

     
    1. IM Doc

      The other very concerning issue going on that I am hearing is that many of these children’s hospitals are getting slammed with RSV.

      I have actually seen 2 RSV adults in the past month or do. They were both very ill but not quite hospital level. Adults with RSV and very sick in the summer. I have never seen this in my entire career,

      This is being seen elsewhere and lots of theories going around but nothing concrete. Both of these people were COVID vaccinated.

      An RSV epidemic with kids in the summer on top of sick COVID kids is not a good sign for the upcoming fall.

  1. Don Midwest

    IM Doc, do you use the protocols posted by FLCCC – Front Line Covid Critical Associates?

    Their preventive and early treatment phases have other off the shelf drugs — vitamin C, vitamin D, mouth wash, etc.

    There is a lot of excellent information on their web page flccc.net

    Including a 50 page manual for doctors which has important graphs of phases of the disease and treatments for various phases. 15 pages are references.

    https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/FLCCC-Protocols-%E2%80%93-A-Guide-to-the-Management-of-COVID-19.pdf

     
    1. IM Doc

      The answer is yes.
      In my opinion, when all the dust is settled – those brave folks will be the heroes of this entire situation.

Aumua

I think saying the vaccines have FAILED is a step too far. Maybe they have failed to live up to the promises that some people have made. I personally never got the impression that being vaccinated would prevent me from getting COVID, or even having symptoms. Now perhaps I’m exposed to overall better information and am able to read between the lines better than a lot of people. Perhaps it’s because I am a reader of NC that I am able to filter various claims being made into categories of truthfulness. But suffice to say that my expectations of the vaccines have always been realistic, once they started coming out at any rate. And those expectations did come from official channels, to some degree.

So the (mixed) messaging around the vaccines and other COVID public health points is a giant FAILURE, I’ll grant you that. But not necessarily the vaccines themselves, which I still see as having a positive effect on the pandemic.

 
  1. Lupana

    It seems like on an individual personal level they have a positive effect but as far as slowing or stopping the pandemic, I’m very confused and not so sure..

     
    1. Aumua

      I’m not sure either! It’s just my best educated guess that they seem to be having an effect on deaths and serious illness at the very least.

       
  2. IM Doc

    If you carefully read what I was saying – they have failed for those patients who are now breakthrough positive. And their now very likely possibility of having long-COVID syndrome. I do not know if there is any evidence whatsoever to support a vaccinated positive patient having a lower chance of developing long COVID. Ergo, my attempt to do whatever I have available to rid their body of the virus as quickly as possible. And we have had an entire year and a half to look into this very issue. There is absolutely zero guidance from the CDC what clinicians should do with breakthroughs – NOTHING. We have had signals on ivermectin and actually several other agents that could be helping right now – but because of the monomaniacal focus on vaccines, absolutely nothing has been done. And now I have a rapidly growing cohort of patients with COVID where the vaccines have failed to prevent infection who are at risk of long COVID. I do not recall Fauci or Walensky saying one word about long COVID, if you have please let me know.

    I am encouraging as many high risk patients as I can to get the vaccine. But as far as protecting the population, I think everyone can see for themselves and make their own determination.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      To his point, NEJM article on medical workers in Israel:

      https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072

      19% of breakthrough cases had persistent symptoms, aka Long Covid.

      I had argued with a reader about long Covid risk and vaccinating.

      This seems more or less on par of the odds of getting Long Covid if you get sick and are not vaccinated. I’ve seen estimates on the 1/6 to 20% level.

      Now admittedly there is sample bias here:

      1. Health care workers will skew younger and healthier than the population as a whole because their work demands that most of them are on their feet and moving about.

      2. Israel, so Pfizer vaccine, so immunity waning due to early vaccinations v the US, and health care workers would have been close to the head of the line.

      3. Pfizer vaccine question again, it may be less effective v. Delta than AZ or J&J (J&J is claiming that).

Talking about Obama's birthday party:

IM Doc

I guess I want everyone to have in their mind when they view these videos of one thing.

I am not seeing a whole lot of masks and social distancing. In fact, I cannot see a mask at all.

These are the self same people at this party who are out telling every American parent that it is unsafe for their kids to go to school without a mask. You can literally bathe in the hypocrisy and the evil.

My God, what a bunch of losers. I will have to answer to God one day that my wife and I were such ardent supporters of his. It really is deeply troubling on so many levels.


More of August to come in the next post.
temporaryreality: (Default)
 First the main NC post, then comments

CDC Reversal on Masks, Vaccinated as Covid Spreaders, While Boosters Look to Be Coming Late and Not Hugely Effective

Posted on July 28, 2021 by 

The Covid situation has developed not necessarily to the CDC’s advantage. Let us count some of the ways before we turn to a new failure in the making, the vaccine boosters.

The CDC and the WHO were late to take Covid seriously despite China having to build new facilities on an emergency basis to house the afflicted and implementing hard shutdown on 70% of its economy. Part of that was discouraging the public from masking (even making home-made face covers), later justified as a Noble Lie to preserve supplies for medical workers

The CDC left public health officials in the dark during the crucial early months by botching its Covid test and then having trouble with assuring adequate supplies, and stonewalling its own responsibility (the first story was that contractors were to blame, but after months of reporting, it turned out that CDC scientists were)

The CDC refused to recommend putting teeth in quarantines

CDC chief Rochelle Walensky said “Vaccinated people do not carry the virus,” as did some public service commercials

The VAERS database is not only weeks behind in reporting cases of vaccine incidents, but multiple clinicians have submitted adverse events that are almost impossible to attribute to anything else that have not been included in VAERS

The CDC doggedly refusing to acknowledge aerosol transmission and continuing to recommend surface cleaning theater long after the careful and paradigm-shifting work of epidemiologists and aerosol scientists came up with a more convincing and complete theory

Walensky made a fool of herself by crying about how awful things were going to get, and later saying before Congress that her son wasn’t going to camp as the CDC had already finished its “Mission accomplished! Throw off your masks” guidance.

Now the CDC has done yet another flip-flop which only further undermines its and the medical establishment’s credibility. The lead item on national TV news this evening was conceding that vaccinated people could (as in are) spreading Covid and they should therefore mask indoors. Oh, but only where the horse has left the barn and is in the next county. As Lambert said in Water Cooler, quoting a Reuters recap:

“The recommendations to wear masks in some indoor settings will apply in areas with surging COVID-19 cases, they said.” • Awesome. Let’s mask up only after it’s too late. As I keep asking: What business is the CDC in, anyhow?

Biden had to rouse himself to apply porcine maquillage:

 

The CDC’s inability to get its new story straight isn’t encouraging:

 

The only goal we can fathom was that Biden was determined to have his July 4 “Freedom Day” whether or not that made any sense in light of vaccination levels and and variant infectiousness. And as Lambert and I have repeatedly bemoaned, treating unmasking as a reward doubled down on right wing messaging that masking was a horrible imposition. Help me. Bathing daily is much more hassle. Do you hear people whine about that?

This isn’t “Follow the science.” This is “Sell the hopium.” Encourage the masses to get out of the house and spend on travel and entertainment. Act like MBAs and make the data fit the PR, which in the CDC’s case meant the absolutely irresponsible act of not collecting data on breakthrough cases among the vaccinated unless they wound up hospitalized, and using that fabrication to maintain that of course nobody vaccinated was getting infected, and its was only crazy right wing anti-vaxxers who dared suggest otherwise.

Mind you, it was predictable that the “Mission accomplished” would blow up because we and others predicted it, starting with the two biggest nurses unions in the US, both of which condemned the CDC for telling the vaccinated to toss their masks.

Just as the implications of the original Covid infection in China were obvious if you weren’t invested in denialism, so too was the significance of new, nastier “variants of concern”. As of late last year, Delta was exploding in India and variants in South Africa and Brazil also were worrisome. It didn’t take long to establish that Delta was vastly more infectious than “wild type” Covid and was spreading rapidly in the UK and then in the US.

Yet the CDC played head in the sand. It acted as if these new developments were of no consequence and the US vaccine strategy would solve all problems. And the Democratic party and its media allies had already pre-positioned the blame cannons squarely at those horrible deplorables if anything did go amiss.

The CDC’s position became untenable as Israel, which had achieved high levels of vaccination early, was reporting lower and lower efficacy levels for the Pfizer vaccine, most recently admitting to only 39% against Delta. That level is too low for the Pfizer vaccine to have been approved had Delta then been the predominant variant.

So now we have the CDC in the middle of another embarrassing about face, doing a poor imitation of financial regulators’ “Whocoulddanode?” in 2008.

The CDC appears to believe it’s a reasonable defense to say they had no idea Delta was way more contagious. Huh? First, medicine is not financial markets. The precautionary principle, as well as having already observed in the first wave what exponential spread looks like, means that public health officials need to err on the side of caution, particularly after having been too slow to act before. Second, the CDC has no excuse based on extensive evidence that
Delta was much more contagious than the “wild type”. Very early estimates pointed to Delta contagion rates at least 40% higher, which should have sent the CDC back to the drawing board. More refined studies had dire findings, like a fresh article concluding viral loads in Delta patients were 1000 times higher than for “wild type” Covid.

The CDC appears constitutionally unwilling to exercise leadership. Admittedly, with a fragmented US health care system, its formal authority is less than ideal, but it has, or more accurately had, a powerful bully pulpit. Instead, the CDC looks unwilling to stick its neck out and will take a position only when it’s safe, which in disease and disaster management, is pathetically useless. As Taleb has warned, preventing ruin is the paramount concern, and pandemics have nasty downsides. With Covid, that may well include a high level of disability due to lasting damage suffered by survivors.

But the CDC, hewing to the bad values of the American professional-managerial classes, think that image and their feelers count for more than real world outcomes, even actual large-scale damage like the opioid debacle. They seem to believe that it’s better not to take grief for averting a crisis, since some will insist the bad results never would have occurred. They’d rather try to play fireman and run into burning buildings. Or more accurately, get others to run into burning buildings but take credit for having dispatched them.

But as the Wall Street Journal pointed out in a very long article and well-researched piece yesterday, Covid treatments are pretty much nowhere, so the alternatives are to do the equivalent of condemn dangerous-looking buildings or let neighborhoods and maybe even entire cities burn.

Now let’s turn to the next CDC train wreck in the making: the vaccine boosters. Remember that the CDC, and in fact the Biden Administration, has put all its eggs in the Covid vaccine basket. Yes, if we see hospitals on overload again, you will see lockdowns. It’s not acceptable for heart attack and stroke victims not to be able to get treated because Covid patients have taken up pretty much all the hospital and ICU beds. But the Biden Administration and the business community generally is so fixated on having Covid be over that that is deemed to be impossible except in places that are being punished for being vaccine apostates.

Having vaccines as the first line of defense requires having reasonably effective boosters and distributing them on a timely basis, as in when the vaccines wear off.

The CDC appears to be totally asleep at the switch on this issue. First, as we pointed out very early on, immunity to coronaviruses doesn’t last all that long. It ranges from six months for the common cold to 34 months for the very deadly MERS. Results from regular large-scale blood tests in the UK indicated that immunity to getting a case of Covid would last somewhere in the six to eight month range. Better data points to the shorter end of the range:

 

Experts thought vaccine-inferred immunity might last longer because the antibody levels started out higher, but no one really knew. As GM explained, the vaccines are way less effective against the variants, which translates into much shorter protection:

There may be “antibodies” but that’s just a signature of infection, not protective on its own. What matters is neutralizing antibodies, and those decay with a half life of 60-150 days. But that’s against the original variant, add an order of magnitude effective reduction in vivo due to the appearance of the newer variants, and all of a sudden 6-9 months after vaccination you are below the threshold (and with a natural infection it’s a lot sooner than that — vaccine-induced antibodies are 10 times higher and the vaccine does not lead to profound immune dysregulation the way infection does). To their credit, Moderna have been very open about this, but their papers on the subject have not received the publicity that the “lifetime immunity” headlines do.

The other distortion of the truth is about memory cells. Yes, memory cells are present and they can make antibodies, but they need to wake up, multiply and ramp up production, which takes time. But the virus has several layers of mechanisms for silencing the immune system, meaning that by the time those memory cells are alerted and have started waking up, runaway exponential viral replication may have already advanced beyond the point of containment.

Same thing for T cells.

Admittedly, earlier this month, both Scott Gottlieb and Fauci were discussing boosters. But do some simple math. Israel used Pfizer, the supposed best in breed. Most of its vaccinations were in January and February. Between natural decay and reduced effectiveness against Delta, efficacy five to six months in is down to 39%. It’s only going to get worse, as reduced protection (lower antibody levels) will translate into not just more contagion, but also more severe cases.

Recall also that the drug companies themselves have been saying the same thing. Pfizer cheekily reported its vaccine offered protection of “up to six months” at the start of April. As GM indicated,

Our high period of vaccinations was January to end of April. Given that how long vaccine conferred immunity would last was an open question, and that variants looked likely to shorten it, I was expecting boosters to be made available as of early fall, at a minimum to health care workers. Instead, the officialdom appeared to have convinced itself, with no factual foundation, that Covid boosters would be annual…just like the flu…because habit. You cannot make this stuff up. Although a toad did hop out of Scott Gottlieb’s mouth in the form of recently saying “annual or biannual vaccinations.”

However, given profit potential, one would also assume that the drug makers would be on top of the plot and would be taking the steps necessary to launch boosters soon. But that isn’t happening on what appears to be the required schedule either.

I hope regulatory experts will pipe up with any corrections or amplification, but the drug-makers are hostage to the EUA process. If the vaccines had gone through full regulatory approval, they could be prescribed for acne. Using them as boosters would be simply a matter of sending out more doses.

But for Pfizer and Moderna, the vaccines were approved because they showed high enough efficacy against the type then circulating. Recall that one defense of J&J was its lower apparent efficacy was at least in part due to being tested later and as a result against some additional variants. But the EUA regime requires that boosters get a new approval. We posted this section from a Reuters story yesterday:

Pfizer said it will be creating a booster shot to target the Delta variant. Trials for the booster shot began in Nashville on Monday. Moderna also announced it will be developing a booster shot, with trial results expected by September.

Studies by Moderna and AstraZeneca showed significantly diminished efficacy of a third shot against earlier variants; it’s not hard to imagine that results against Delta would be similar or worse.1 IM Doc had also heard about trials for Pfizer using the old vaccine from local investigators weeks ago. It’s not clear if the supposed Delta trial mentioned in the story is the same “material” but a different dose, or a new formulation. IM Doc had believed that Pfizer was attempting another two-shot regime, but that may have been unpopular with participants and with officials that heard about it too.

Nevertheless, the supposed advantage of mRNA vaccines was the ability to develop new ones in just a week or two in a lab. Delta has been raging in the UK and India, so why weren’t the trials in progress already, and with a targeted new formulation?

Regardless of what each company is up to, if you make simple-minded assumptions, starting with the Pfizer trial just having started, it’s hard to see how a vaccine is approved before the end of September.2 And even though Pfizer had its vaccines all prepositioned in regional warehouses to be released immediately upon getting the green light, we know from the first go-round that getting patients injected takes time. It’s possible to implement what amounts to bulk distribution at nursing homes, to workers at medical centers, and at drive in sites, but those were in effect only in the early months. Will state and local governments gear up again, or will they just hand the process over to drugstores? Planning should be starting by mid-late August at the latest. What do you think the odds are of that happening outside at most a few places very hard hit in previous waves, like New York City?

And just as important, what will the demand be? It would take a full bore campaign to create an appetite for boosters. But that would require telling those who’ve been vaccinated early in 2021 in no uncertain terms that they are or will soon be at risk again. That messaging, particularly in the late summer, would throw a damp squib on Labor Day vacationers. And again, it’s such a big change from the recent happy talk that it won’t make the CDC or the Biden Administration look very good either.

But events may create the sense of urgency all on their own. A fresh e-mail from GM:

The increase overall in hosptializations in the US is truly frightening. This is most definitely not the UK situation where they got a lot of cases but it was mostly young people so hospitals did not get slammed as before (of course, it remains to be seen what will happen there when schools restart).

Yesterday, to the extent that the data can be believed given how it is no longer being properly collected and reported, hospitalizations jumped by almost 4,000 in a single day.

I went through the data from the previous waves and it looks like there was only one day in mid-November 2020 when they rose by more than that.

In total it is still at 40,000 compared to the 120,000 at the peak. But we know it will keep rising because people are still out there unmasked and the exponential phase of case growth shows no signs of slowing.

So this looks like how B.1.617.2 has been behaving in India, Nepal, Russia, Indonesia, etc., and most definitely not like the UK situation.

Worst of all, we have all these derivatives of B.1.617.2 that are now spreading in the US and a massive rise in hospitalizations in an otherwise fairly highly vaccinated population, which has not really been observed so far — every massive B.1.617.2 surge elsewhere has been in a largely unvaccinated population — so is it because in the US a lot of older people did not get vaccinated while in other countries nearly everyone vulnerable did get vaccinated, is it because vaccines are fading, or is it because these derivatives are even worse than OG vanilla B.1.617.2? Well, we will have to wait for these variants to spread in Europe to figure it out, because in the US nobody is tracking or looking at this question…

How did we get to this sorry state? No one seems willing to make decisions, particularly the really important ones that entail saying “no” to those who don’t want to hear it. The Republicans’ excuse is that they want to fob everything off to the private sector. The Democrats sold themselves as paragons of managerial competence and sound decision-making. They are coming off like actors whose telepromoter has frozen.

Lambert’s take:

The CDC has proved utterly incapable of assessing and communicating risk to public health during a pandemic. And that assumes “genocidal elites” theory has been ruled out, which I’m coming to think in fact parsimonious.

GM also has to concede that malevolent intent by our better can’t be entirely ruled out, but he sees hubris and incompetence as the drivers:

The part about the willing self-deception of the elites is also very important. I too have come to the conclusion that either there is some absurdly nefarious grand conspiracy behind this (not really likely) or it is just stupidity and shortsightedness all around. COVID has shown, again and again and again, that you can ignore it for some time, but eventually you will pay for it. Wuhan CCP officials, Trump, the Tanzanian president, and many others learned that lesson the hard way. And it’s been 18 months of that. And it’s not like it was not known there is antigenic drift with these viruses, or that they have all sorts of tricks up their sleeve yet to be played, or that the vaccine was not going to last (was talked about from the start), or that we were never going to vaccinate enough people to reach herd immunity, etc.. So why would you possibly spend half a year blatantly lying when it was crystal clear from the start that it will backfire eventually? Unless you are indeed that deluded and unable to think rationally about the long term.

After the financial crisis, I took to saying that Washington DC had a Versailles circa 1788 air about it. That’s now looking charitable. Lambert’s been studying the last years of imperial Russia, and finds it a much closer parallel to our rot at the top. That isn’t at all encouraging, since the Romanovs made the Bourbons look good.

____

1 From GM via e-mail:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256716v1

There were two concerning observations there:

1. No neutralization activity left against P.1 and B.1.351 after 6-8 months
2. The booster worked, but only increased the neutralizing titers to ~40% of what they were originally against the Wuhan variant and what they are against it when boosted.

Based on the fact that the booster “worked”, OAS was dismissed by most, but this would in fact consistent with an OAS effect — nAbs only got boosted to less than half of the previous level.

But then the AZ booster preprint came out:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.08.447308v1

They saw the same <50% boosting against B.1.351, and they also analyzed neutralization against B.1.617.2 and saw that it was even worse against it (B.1.617.2 is antigenically more different from B.1.351 than it is from the wild type). But they also did several more important experiments: 1. They immunized naive mice with a WT and with a B.1.351 vaccine, single dose 2. They immunized naive mice with a mixture of the two And the neutralization against B.1.351 was still half of what it is against the WT [wild type]

2 Back of the envelope:

Two weeks after vaccination to reach peak efficacy (Pfizer and Moderna did not include information on infections before that time frame last time).

Four weeks to have enough infections and results from placebo and controls to determine efficacy

A week to compile and polish findings and send them in

FDA at a bare minimum has to do a statistical review, which takes a minimum of two weeks.


IM Doc

Today’s update –

An uptick has occurred – but we are nowhere near overwhelming the hospital.

I admitted 5 patients this AM who had been admitted overnight with COVID related symptoms. 3 of these patients are fully vaccinated. Two of them are unvaccinated. None of them is in critical condition.

With one exception, these are all patients I follow as outpatients so I know them very well. I also know the cT of all these patients that are in the hospital – and will include in the description.

The one vaccinated I do not follow is associated with the group superspreader event I described yesterday. The patient is 27 and very athletic. Had vaccination competely done in May. Is having problems breathing and is analagous to a very severe asthma problem – although never diagnosed with asthma. This individual is a PMC type but at the start of their career. cT 18

Another vaccinated patient was completed Moderna on June 4th. A 68 year old very healthy patient with no known medical issues. I have seen them twice in the past 2 years for physicals. No meds. Very vigorous exerciser. This patient has spoken to me of their political persuasion (many people do whether I want to hear it or not ) and is GOP conservative. cT 16

The other vaccinated patient is a more elderly individual. Age over 70. Only takes 1 med and is otherwise very healthy. I have not seen them often either – just not that problematic medically. This person is definitely in the MAGA group. cT 22

The first unvaccinated patient is a 35 year old man-bun wearing, unabashed Leftist – wearing his political identity in the shirt he had on this AM. Militantly anti-vax for every single vaccine not just COVID. He was a bit SOB with a low pulse ox last night – and got steroids and is already better – He will likely go home later tonight. cT 22

The second unvaccinated patient is a 38 year old whose spouse is a known anti-vaxxer and big Bernie Sanders supporter. Indeed, the spouse is the leader of our local anti-vaxx group. Already doing much better and will likely go home today. cT 24

Again, the crush of patients as outpatients is ongoing – and is actually remaining right at 70%vaccinated/30%unvaccinated. I have no doubt there are many patients not coming to attention. This would be especially true of the unvaccinated who tend to be younger and more healthy. I have now seen 2 patients with COVID today who were just given their first shot in the past 2 weeks. None of these people are very ill. And tend to get better in just a few days. Mostly young.

As I have repeatedly stated, the “deplorable MAGA unvaccinated rhubarb” trope all over the media right now is really overdone. It certainly does not apply in my world. The anti-vaccine patients around me are largely Liberal Leftists often Bernie Sanders supporters – young and militant anti-vaxx and anti-chemicals. There are also plenty of Evangelical anti-vaxxers. But it should come as no surprise that many of the measles outbreaks have occurred in Oregon, Washington, and California in recent decades. There is a reason for that – and the reason is not MAGA deplorables. This anti-vaxx Leftist group is just as militant if not more so than the right wingers.

Thankfully so far other than the deaths we had last week – most of these patients are just in the hospital a day or so – and then DC home. Occasionally someone is really ill. I am hoping it stays that way, but I do worry about the future given the fact that these vaccines are so clearly non-sterilizing and this virus is so profoundly capable of mutation. And the way this virus has operated all year – God only knows what is going to happen tomorrow.

Be safe and take care.
 

Angie Neer

Doc, thanks as always for your comments. But I haven’t been able to figure out what cT or SOB mean in this context.

 
  1. IM Doc

    cT is cycle threshold – it is the PCR threshold for viral particles – in this case COVID – — and indicates the level of positivity –

    SOB – means Shortness of breath –

    Try as I might – the abbreviations and doctor-speak are just too ingrained in my brain to avoid sometimes – sorry.

     

  1. phoenix

    How small is your town/hospital? 0% chance you know this much personal detail about every covid patient in there. More unverified BS with a clear ideological bent being spewed on here and everyone is eating it up.

     
    1. Isotope_C14

      Ad hominem attacks are specifically against site rules. IM Doc is no Larper, before COVID he regularly explained to us about the problems with EPIC and the crappification of the medical establishment due to the incompetent administrative hacks that run the US hospital system.

      As a once employee of that system stateside, admittedly on the science side, I can vouch for what he was saying back then – though I never commented on it, I didn’t have anything to add. I was required while collecting and processing patient samples to follow strict HIPPA patient protection rules.

      So phoenix, you haven’t convinced anyone of malfeasance – just in case you were wondering.

       
    2. IM Doc

      There are about 6000 people in the community. We have an additional 3 or 4 thousand around in surrounding counties. It is very remote. And I know the data on them because I got into work at about 530 this AM and went over everything with each one in detail. I have been trained to take care of patients in the hospital – and that is what I do here every day of my life. I see other physician’s patients as well. The primary care here is split among 3 internists, 4 FPs who are also busy with urgent care issues and a pediatrician or two. There are other docs that are specifically tasked with nursing home patients. There are very few local specialists. There are ER doctors. There are a few others who are semi-retired and I end up seeing and knowing most of their patients too. I have a panel of close to 2500 of these people. I work 6 days a week and see on average 20-24 of them every day – along with many others in the hospital.

      I can see you are about as cynical as I was when I lived in the big cities. It was so impersonal there. And I know what being a doctor was like in other parts of the country.
      So, I probably can understand where you are coming from – and the fact that your doctors do not spend a whole lot of time getting to know you well. Thankfully, things are much different here. Almost every one of my patients are active parts of my life at church, in social and civic clubs, walking around town, at the schools, everywhere. Life is much different out here. I cannot walk into the grocery store or the post office without knowing almost everyone in the place.

      When I am admitting patients into the hospital, I would dare say I know about 90% of them already from either my own practice or covering others. There is a local paper – so many of these issues have been introduced by the people’s own interaction with the community – and I recognize them instantly from that as well.

      I really do like it here. I should have come to the small town much earlier than I did. My mental health and support systems are infinitely stronger, and it is a relief to know that everyone knows my family – and has our back.

      I know it is very difficult for those not living in small rural America to know what it is really like here. I know I sure didn’t before we moved. And I am sure that where I live is very unique for its own reasons. I have been commenting on here about COVID for months – and the experience we are having here and what it brings to the picture. I have pulled no punches – and I believe every one of these commenters knows I am from a small rural area – and things may not be the same in our big cities. I have become even more strident about discussing what is going on here since the media has seen fit to demonize these people – whom I now consider my own.

       
      1. IM Doc

        Sorry – also forgot the hospitalists – who are younger – there are usually 2 or 3 here – hard to keep them – and sometimes we have long stretches with contract physicians every month or two. Long ago, we made the decision to have a minimal amount of staff exposure to COVID – so I mainly handle the COVID patients and my own patients – and they handle all the others.

         
      2. rabbitPA

        I appreciate where you are coming from. I am a retired Physician Assistant (current term- Associate) with nearly 4 decades experience providing emergency and primary care in a very rural part of a rural state. I do not have any direct info into the situation in our hospital or local office practices, but I still talk to a number of former patients. Many are definitely in the skeptic/ non vaccinated group. There are very few true “anti-vaxxers” among them. These are people who have had no issue getting their yearly flu shot, a dose of shingles vaccine or an update to their tetanus status. The difference now is that they have been influenced by a sizable group of politicians, faith leaders, media personalities and others. These people have done a remarkably effective job of convincing my former patients to ignore and scorn advice from local and national public health providers.
        We do not ever have a President and TV personalities dismissing the severity of the seasonal influenza or calling it a left wing media hoax. We don’t see demonstrations against seasonal flu vaccines and precautions.
        So, in some ways I say that we really aren’t “all in this together” when there is a powerful group – some with malice aforethought- working to undermine the public good. I feel my (former) patients have been thoroughly hoodwinked and lied to and we can’t discuss this whole tragedy without keeping that fact in the forefront.
        Thanks for your valuable insights.

         

Science/Medicine

 

Pfizer Data Suggest Third Dose of Covid-19 Vaccine ‘Strongly’ Boosts Protection Against Delta Variant CNN. Help me. Based on 23 people when IM Doc says based on intel from local investigators that Pfizer has been running trials on boosters…yet per Reuters its official trial started last Monday. That suggests the earlier trials were likely aborted. So why should we trust this? Smacks of cherry-picking.

IM Doc

My world today –

I discharged the last two COVID patients from the hospital this AM. There are no more in the ER, nor do I know of anyone out there who is really ill. Again, this virus does not behave like a normal epidemic contagion. We will see how long this lasts. Patients are still coming in as outpatients – both vaccinated and unvaccinated – but not to the numbers of last week.

I talk to my old friends in the big city daily. They work in big huge hospitals in the urban core where I worked and taught students for 30 years. I no longer even attempt to look at the media for any kind of accurate take on what is going on there. Both the local media there and the national media have time and time again proven to be willful liars. I now rely totally on my friends. The media has turned into full panic porn mode – especially in that city. Last night and into today, my friends did let me know that there has been a large uptake of admissions and hospitalizations. The rate at this point they would guess is about 85 unvaccinated and 15 vaccinated. Patterns are beginning to emerge – the vaccinated are mainly older and baseline ill, the unvaccinated are 40s-60s and are often obese as well. Large numbers of Blacks and Latinos. These 2 groups make up the vast majority of unvaccinated admissions in the whole city – not just in the inner city hospitals. The African American community has been profoundly vaccine hesitant, I believe for mainly historical reasons of medical experimentation. I have seen not a thing being done by federal officials to address this problem other than a few lame YouTube videos. The Latinos, by my friends’ account, are vaccine naive because many are afraid to be deported on one hand and on the other will get fired from work for being off a day or two if they got sick after the vaccine. Again , not an effort has been made to help these situations either. But the media and our politicos are really good at Bubba bashing as Lambert calls it. Anytime you hear any inkling from the media about vaccine hesitancy issues, it is always about Bubba. I would ask you to talk to any physician in a big city hospital, and you will get a more nuanced answer. But PROGRESS! We do not lift a finger to assist these groups in their vaccine hesitancy issues, but we also say nothing about it when they are also suffering in the hospitals. I guess that is what we now call equity.

I do have good news to report from my friend physicians there. There are lots of admissions. But unlike last year, the patients are not staying in the hospital nearly as long. Some are very ill, but for a large section of patients they are just not in the hospital long. Thus, decreasing the chance of crashing the hospital. This is happening to both the vaccinated and unvaccinated. As you can tell, I am seeing largely the same phenomenon here. I take this as very good news. I have no explanation – but I will take anything right now. It cannot simply be a matter of the vaccines – because this quick turnaround is also happening among the unvaccinated. Good news! And we are all hoping and praying that it stays that way.

What I am seeing in my outpatients right now, especially the vaccinated, is a seething rage. Not at the Bubbas of the world as the media would have us believe. No, they are fuming that the vaccine is having any problems at all. That is NOT what they were promised. They are fuming that they have to wear masks again. I am seeing from both Red and Blue patients – an absolute and total loss of trust in our federal health officials. I believe at this point I can make it official – WHATEVER CREDIBILITY THE CDC and DR FAUCI HAD HAS NOW BEEN TORCHED TO THE GROUND. I think the big holdouts of remaining true believers is the medical community and other members of the PMC. Based on comments I am hearing from my colleagues, I am not sure how long the center will hold even there.

At this point, the only path back to credibility is going to require a few terminations. If the Dems and Biden have any chance of not owning this whole debacle, Fauci and Walensky need to both be gone now. The anger among my patients is that intense. I think that would go along way into rebooting the whole situation – which we so desperately need right now. Of course they are not going to do that, so Biden/Harris et al will simply be circling the drain with them as each new lie has to come out to counteract the other lies they have told.

A patient showed me this tweet this AM – https://twitter.com/pfizer/status/1420474141686255624 – commenting, “I guess that is they way they are going to tell us their vaccines are not working. And I am certain when they find this drug it will be at least 5000 dollars. What a bunch of f#$%ing losers” And he is a huge Dem donor in this whole state. Again – this is not a Red/Blue issue. Everyone is getting angry.

Everyone – stay safe and be careful.

 
  1. antidlc

    “Everyone is getting angry.”

    https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/st-louis-county-health-chief-says-he-faced-racial-slurs-after-presenting-on-mask-mandate/article_da2eebbc-dade-5f55-83d2-e12aa0179cb6.htm

    St. Louis County health chief says he faced racial slurs after presenting on mask mandate

    St. Louis County’s acting health director says the rumor is true: He gave someone the middle finger on his way out of the council meeting on the mask mandate Tuesday night.

    But in a letter to County Councilwoman Rita Heard Days sent Wednesday, Dr. Faisal Khan said he did it after a string of racist provocations from Republican politicians like Councilman Tim Fitch and a boisterously anti-mask audience pushed him past his limit.

    “I have never been subjected to the racist, xenophobic and threatening behavior that greeted me in the County Council meeting last night,” he wrote, after noting he’s been in public health for 25 years.

    About that civil war…?

Phillip Cross

“giving people a false sense of protection”

There’s nothing false about it. Wherever you look, in the overwhelming majority of cases, the vaccine has protected the recipient from severe outcomes.

If you are at risk from a Covid infection, get the vaccine. It really is a no brainer.

 
  1. Samuel Conner

    I know people who think that the vaccine both protects them from a severe outcome and also means that they don’t need to wear a mask to protect others in case they become asymptomatic spreaders.

    That sounds like a false sense of protection to me.

    Get the vaccine, yes. But don’t stop masking.

     
  2. IM Doc

    It really is a no brainer.

    I think we should do a little Public Health 101.

    In vaccine epidemiology, there are 2 big concepts of great import –
    1) Individual protection
    2) Herd protection

    With regard to individual protection in the case of these vaccines, I believe there is no doubt that outcomes are a bit better. It does seem to help with hospitalization and with death. Ergo, I am trying my best to get every high risk person vaccinated.

    But we also as medical professionals have to take “herd protection” into consideration when we are discussing this with each individual. These vaccines are clearly non-sterilizing. As of this week both Dr. Walensky and Dr Fauci have admitted that publicly. Dr. Walensky described the ability to transmit in vaccinated individuals as “rare”. Dr Fauci, to my knowledge, made no such caveat. I will also remind you that Walensky just a few weeks ago was describing “breakthrough” cases as “rare”. More concerning to me is the CDC seems to be completely happy withholding any information on how they reached these conclusions. But the point of the matter is, the vaccines do not protect the vaccinated from spreading – to what degree we do not yet know.

    So, they provide some individual protection for getting very ill, but the herd protection is clearly compromised – so masks and/or other mitigation measures will now have to be employed.

    These are the consequences when you go with a non-sterilizing vaccine. Some of the other consequences are much more dire and we may be facing them in the intermediate to long term.

    The part of this that really angers me is that it was the CDC itself that turned off the data collection back in May. I cannot tell you how many times in May and June I was literally begging the local and state Health Dept to evaluate all the vaccinated positives I was seeing. That is the red alert signal that there is non-sterilizing activity in the vaccine. No one would even talk to me much less investigate because “the CDC said so.”: I have colleagues all over this country who found themselves in the same boat. All the while that Walensky and others were on the TV stating that vaccinated could not spread, were not going to get sick, could rip their masks off. All the while – docs on the ground were noticing the problems and were being ignored.

    So, the consequences now for the herd are the return of mitigation measures. The protection for the herd is not total and is non-sterilizing – we just do not know exactly how bad it is. This is total incompetence. And the people have every right to be angry. They have been lied to repeatedly. You cannot tell me that scientists at the CDC were not seeing exactly what I was seeing earlier this year.
     

    IM Doc

    Just FYI –
    This story is just breaking – and appears to have been a leading concern for the CDC in the return of the mask mandate.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cdc-mask-decision-stunning-findings-cape-cod-beach/story?id=79148102

    Again, this is the same kind of issue that I was seeing in May and June – although certainly NOTHING this gargantuan happened where I live. We are talking about patient numbers in the dozens/hundreds there in Cape Cod. It will be very interesting to see the raw data when it is presented.

  1. allan

    Thank you for the update.

    Is it possible that the population your small community is somehow atypical?

    Because there are some fairly specific numbers out there, based on larger sample sizes, indicating that
    unvaccinated and young people are being hospitalized in larger numbers
    and they are sicker than with earlier variants. For example,

    ‘We can’t keep these levels up’: Oklahoma health leaders warn of grim COVID trajectory [Oklahoman]

    … Almost 800 ICU beds were in use in Oklahoma on Tuesday — about 86% of the total number of staffed ICU beds in the state, per HHS data — and 209 of them were filled by COVID-19 patients. …

    As of Monday night, two-thirds of the patients at the hospital where Ratermann works had COVID-19, he said. Patients are younger than in previous waves, he said — some in their 20s and 30s. Most have not been vaccinated against the coronavirus. …

    or see the charts in


    Gov. Hutchinson reinstates public health emergency in Arkansas, calls special session
    to address mask mandate ban for schools
     [FOX16]

     
    1. IM Doc

      A few days ago, I made comments on why I think my population here in my small community is seeming faring a bit better. Although we did have deaths last week – and that was very troublesome. Since then – things have really improved. But all kinds of mitigation measures are going on.

      I have no doubt that big city hospitals are seeing large numbers of patients. That much is absolutely confirmed today by my friends discussion with me. And they are telling me much the same – that large numbers of them are unvaccinated. I think that pattern is holding up over all kinds of locations. In the Oklahoma situation above, though, 209 of the 800 ICU beds is not nearly the rate we were seeing before in previous surges. This is early – and things may absolutely change. But, according to my friends, there is way more discharging quickly going on. And as I said above, I am looking for any scrap of good news. This is a very fluid situation obviously – and will need to be monitored.

      And please do not take my comments above in the wrong way. I grew up in a Southern very GOP area. I am getting daily calls from my family and friends still there wondering what I think of vaccines etc. The vaccine hesitancy among this group is profoundly strong. Mainly, it seems to me is a function of the complete mistrust of our health officials engendered by their dissembling behavior this past year. I get why regular people are frustrated. But this is not just a Southern GOP problem – otherwise LA would not be such a mess right now – my friends are reporting the hospitals in their cities being flooded by African Americans and Latinos. I am trying to say that sowing division right now is not the answer – this is a national clusterfuck. We are going to have to do this together or not at all.

Kevin Smith

My wife and I had Pfizer, then JnJ, then I had another Pfizer and she had Moderna. We’re both 70, the shots were no big deal.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Very happy for you.

    I have now 1 death and several serious complications among my panel of patients.

    Some people have not been so lucky.

    I also am very concerned that as we give more and more boosters the sick period afterwards get more intense.

    We will see.

    I have no idea what the data is on mixing shots like you describe. Hope it works out for you.
     

      1. IM Doc

        Oh no – We have not even started or indeed had any guidance whatsoever about boosters yet.

        No, these complications are all from the original vaccination drive over the past 8 months.

IM Doc

Update from today –

Again – no one in the hospital, no one in the ER, but a few people on the horizon that may need to be hospitalized. There are still outpatients coming in sick with COVID both vaccinated and unvaccinated.

This past weekend, there was a cultural event sponsored in our town by some of the very well-to-do PMC. About 150 or so in attendance. Part of the price of admission was to show your vaccine cards at the entrance to prove you were fully vaccinated. Of course, there was no masking, social distancing, or really any restrictions once you were in the event. I am told the attendees were told that the hired help were also all vaccinated.

That was 6 days ago – a fully vaccinated event. I now have over the past 2 days had 5 positive vaccinated “breakthrough patients” just in my practice alone. There are others in other doctor’s practices in town. The total is likely to be less than 10 – unlike the 800 or so breakthroughs in the oh so vaccinated oh so PMC – oh so holy enclave of Provincetown that hit the news yesterday. There were apparently a “couple of young guys” coughing a lot during the event here. Ahhh, but those were still in the heady days when Dr. Walensky had assured all that everything was safe – no masking needed – especially if the deplorable unvaccinated were kept away.

The truth fairies and their pixie dust have arrived in America. I did not even have to call the health department this time – they are already all over it. Amazing what happens when we follow the science and not politics.

Folks, basically this was an event with full usage of a vaccine passport analog. Knowing what we know now about these vaccines, anyone in the media or medicine or politics demanding their usage at this time is obviously using them as a cudgel for division and shaming. As you can see at this point, a passport would be completely worthless medically. I remember not too long ago, when the NYT and the New York Magazine were filled with people bragging about Pfizer vaccines and how much more stylish they were. So much more hip than Moderna, you know. I knew in my heart at the time that was not going to age well. What a disaster this is all becoming.

About the passports – tell me I am wrong – I am all ears.

 
  1. chris

    Thanks as always for the updates. Curious about whether there is any real difference between Pfizer and Moderna on the ground. Have you noticed anything anecdotal in your experience? Do you see more people who were vaccinated with one versus the other becoming ill with an infection?

     
    1. IM Doc

      If there is any difference, I sure have not noticed it. They seem to be about equal in every aspect.

Shonde

Were the viral loads higher in the vaccinated vs the un-vaccinated for this round of patients as they appeared to be in one of your previous reports?

As others have said, thank you for your reports. You are not only caring for your patient community but also with the information in your reports, you are caring for the community of NC.

 
  1. Arizona Slim

    Agreed. It’s why I think that IM Doc is a doctor in the finest sense of the word.

     
  2. IM Doc

    The only time I have the cycle threshold information is when the patients are admitted to the hospital. In any other case – I have no idea what the cycle thresholds are on any of my other patients. Just positive or negative.

    When the book is written about this whole affair, this one issue will be one of the scandals. We in medicine have access to every other single test on earth that we order. But somehow, the clinicians are not allowed to see the cycle thresholds for COVID. It has only been very recently that the hospital has been providing this and I understand today that this may not be continued.

    Cycle thresholds are not a YES/NO kind of test – it is a spectrum. Spectrum tests are not unusual in medicine – take the ANA or any number of other infectious disease titers. We are trained to understand all of these tests and interpret their positivity in our own patients based on their symptoms.

    In COVID, the interpretation on these has all been done by some nameless lab drone somewhere far away. Time and time again the past 18 months, I have had patients that have POSITIVE tests – but I am not really sure they actually have COVID. Having the information that the threshold was 16 (likely very positive) or 40 (likely a nothingburger) would have been invaluable and saved so much stress on the system. But alas, they did not want us to have these numbers for whatever reason. I guess you can use your own imagination. The whole thing has been one scandal after another.

     
    1. Acacia

      Incredible. Do we know anything about who decided this policy on not sharing cT with clinicians? Vaccine makers?

      BTW, I deeply appreciate everything you are sharing with us here, IM Doc, and happy to hear you’re recovered. We’re in a very scary situation, but reading your reports and the following discussions really goes a long way to keeping informed, minimizing risk, and feeling safer.

       
      1. Isotope_C14

        I’ll chime in here, as I used to do mosquito West Nile Virus (WNV) diagnostics in a laboratory.

        Technically, it’s not legal. I forgot a ton about this part until I responded to IM Doc on a much earlier thread. The fact he’s getting cT’s now is pretty cool.

        Most of the kits and reagents say directly on the packaging, “for research use only, not diagnostic”. The diagnostic kits have to be more expensive, and are probably exactly the same as the science ones. Someone’s gotta grift.

        Now – on the science side, you would always do three replicates for a patient sample of the desired virus DNA. You would also do *at least* 1 housekeeping gene to show that your sample had the correct amount of initial sample, whether that is a particular gene like 45S or some other housekeeping gene is irrelevant, you would do 3 of those too.

        I have not done any kind of diagnostics outside of many years ago with the WNV and St. Louis encephalitis, but the mosquito abatement districts were given +/- as the assay described. We did *not* do 45S, or any other housekeeping gene for the mosquito RNA. We *did* know how many mosquitoes were in the pool though.

        If one is to truly believe the PCR values, you absolutely must have a housekeeping gene, and I doubt those are done. If you were to do that, a 384 well plate could only test 64 samples at a time. I doubt anyone is taking this that seriously.

         
        1. IM Doc

          I appreciate the info. I did not know about the housekeeping gene issue. As I stated, I am being told today that the cT will be pulled from the charts.

          It is important to realize that PCR testing was never meant to be used in the way it is being used now in COVID. That too has been a whole other scandal. And then on top of that, the “changing the goalposts” on the cT has been dubious at best – especially the timing – literally the day that Biden won the election. I will let people use their imagination on that too. I am not now nor will I ever be a Trump supporter – but I also do not believe in coincidence. The fact that happened on that day or very shortly thereafter made me realize instantly that games were being played.

          1. IM Doc

            I want to make sure we all understand one big caveat.

            The PCR cT do indicate the likely viral load in a specimen. It is a strong suggestion of how much viral load is there. However, the gold standard to confirm this requires vigorous microbiological/virological testing.

            I am sure we will be hearing about these results in the coming days.

Pelham

Isn’t it possible — as your example suggests — that people who are vaccinated are routinely more careless than those who aren’t, accounting in part for the high number of breakthrough cases?

For instance, if 100 vaccinated people get together indoors without masks and one has the Delta variant and spreads it thoroughly through the crowd, maybe 40 get Covid and have symptoms instead of, say, 80.

But if 100 unvaccinated and non-immune people avoid getting together in the first place and take some precautions with masks, none of them get Covid.

Out of the 40 vaccinated people with breakthrough cases, maybe 4 show up at the hospital while, again, none of the unvaccinated people do. So from the hospital perspective it appears the vaccines are worthless when they actually do a fair bit of good — although they don’t seem to be anywhere near good enough to prevent the spread of Delta without additional measures.

So, in sum, when it comes to the question of a vaccine passport, yeah, I see your point.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Your points are very good ones – and yes we get a very skewed look at things when just looking at the hospital numbers.

    You are making EXACTLY the point why it was almost criminally negligent for the CDC to just focus their datasets on the HOSPITALIZED breakthroughs. It is one of the most bone-headed things I have ever seen done in medicine – and I have seen a lot. Once you do that, all the while encouraging people to rip the masks off, you have not a clue what is going on in your community.

    I am not a data base expert or a data retrieval expert. But I am fairly confident that the negligence has been so complete here that these datasets could never be reconstructed even if you tried. Nor can I fathom a way to finesse what we do have to make any sense at all.

    It is absolutely absurd that this was allowed to happen at this juncture in the pandemic.

IM Doc

LATE UPDATE –

Just got off a Zoom conference with a bunch of ID and Epidemiology Docs at my old academic center.

Wow – talk about faces sucking down dill pickles. There are some very sullen folks in academic circles tonight.

It was more of a question and answer and general discussion session than a presentation. Those are often the best.

Lots and lots of discussion about boosters. And the wisdom of doing such a thing in the setting of the rapidly evolving genomic changes in the virus. Very very technical. I will not go into this now. I am certain we are going to be hearing all kinds of stuff about this issue in the next few weeks.

The same question I brought up about the vaccine passports was brought up. Literally no one in the room could come up with a reason anymore. No one.

But the most interesting and thought provoking question came up at the very end –

Given what we now know, how can we even begin to justify the forced vaccination of college students with these vaccines – and how can we justify the forced vaccination of young health care workers with these vaccines. In both cases, the presumed reason to do so is to stop spread. Since we know that is not happening how can we possibly justify this coercion?

Lots of discussion, consternation, back and forth and up and down. No real answers – and lots of anger.

The college students I have no good answer, nor did they. The health care workers I can somewhat see because of their risk profile – but certainly not spreading the virus anymore.

I really have to ponder this question for a while – I am posing this here to the NC commenters – some of the brightest people I know.
 

MLK

From: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/cdc-coronavirus-masks-vaccines-indoors/619592/

“Our vaccines are very powerful, but their performance was first measured in clinical trials while masking was widespread. Study volunteers were “asked to act as if they were unvaccinated, and keep all other protections in place,” Michal Tal, an immunologist at Stanford, told me.”

Can anyone in the know unpack this statement for me in a quantitative way? Without masking what is the efficacy of vaccines?

Thanks

 
  1. IM Doc

    I have heard lots of reasoning for these vaccine issues we are seeing the past few weeks – but that one is new. I really need to read the entire article – but it seems to suggest that they would work differently in a masking environment or a non-masking environment. That is someone pulling at straws.

    When these issues first became observable a few weeks ago – colleagues were stating – “These vaccines are very complicated to deliver and give. It is obvious that a lot of these vaccines were not delivered or given in a way they could survive – that is why this failure is occurring.”

    Then as the numbers became worse – there was a shift – but the excuse always start with the same general clause – “The vaccines are clearly the best vaccines medicine has ever produced. I just simply do not believe these people. They say they were vaccinated – but they really were not – they are just making that all up so they do not look bad.”

    I only wish I was kidding.

     

Rattib

I keep reading this:
“(Note that these numbers are if anything understated, since the CDC does not collect breakthrough infections unless they involve hospitalization, and encourages health administrators in the states and localities not to collect the data either.)”

and thinking: the CDC does not collect breakthrough infections as such, but surely they are including those infections in the overall case count. In which case the overall case count wouldn’t be overstated, at least in this particular way. Or is there something I’m missing?

 
  1. IM Doc

    In my area of the country, these cases were not being counted at all. At least in the official numbers which were being released to the press. So the numbers are indeed likely being way undercounted.

    This all kind of came to a head about 2 weeks ago here – when people started having all kinds of vaccinated positive friends and the numbers were not bumping up in the paper. I was literally called out on this fact by my minister – in a Sunday School Class.

    Sometime in the middle of May, the edict went forth from the CDC that the vaccines were obviously working so well, and the breakthroughs were so minimal that they would only be collecting those numbers if the cases were in the hospital, dead, or health care workers.

    So our entire dataset for the past 3 months or so is basically worthless and is very very skewed inappropriately toward unvaccinated cases.

    I can assure everyone today – the worm has turned. The lies and misrepresentations were becoming so obvious to all that they were no longer sustainable.

Tom Stone

There’s another outbreak at the Sonoma County Jails, Delta Variant,
They had opened up visitation on a limited basis ( no physical contact, you sit in a cubicle with 3/4″ of bullet resistant glass between yourself and the prisoner) about 3 weeks ago.
Visitors were required to remain masked at all times, however there is very poor ventilation and conversations take place through a small grille.

 
  1. Petter

    Just out of curiosity, how do they know it’s the Delta variant? Have they done genetic sequencing?

     
    1. SteveB

      I am very interested in the answer to that question as well.

      As I understand PCR test does not provide an answer so how do they know it”s the “Delta” variant that’s spreading… Or is this just more speculation by the powers that be…

       
      1. Mikel

        There have been reports of Delta + , Epsilon, and Gamma variants.

        Yet, they are only talking about the shots “working” on Delta.
        No mention of the other 3 when they write about the boosters.

         
  2. IM Doc

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2105282

    https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/sonoma-county-jail-sees-outbreak-of-covid-19/

    I will point you to the above two articles about this very subject –

    The top one is from the NEJM – they have been trumpeting California’s success rate in getting inmates vaccinated from very early on in the vaccination drive.

    The second one is a local press report from the past few days.

    The local press report does not really discuss how many of the current inmates involved in the outbreak are vaccinated. It does give details on how they have been quarantining the inmates as they come in – and how they have attempted a vaccine campaign among them – mainly from the J&J vaccine.

    The NEJM seems to indicate as of MARCH 4 – ages ago – that roughly 50% of the inmates in California’s system had been vaccinated. I would suggest that number is probably much higher now, although I can find no current data. The NEJM was really heralding this story for about a month, it has gone silent lately.

    There is no breakdown of vaccinated vs unvaccinated that I can find in the current Sonoma County outbreak. However, the pattern demonstrated is exactly what I have been seeing on the ground for weeks. Large clusters of positive patients, vaccinated or not, many of whom, vaccinated or not, are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. Those who do get symptoms, vaccinated or not, seem to largely get better much more quickly than what we were having before. The vaccinated status does not seem to be a magic bullet in this process- the unvaccinated get better just as quickly. My friends in the big city continue to tell me as of this AM – they are having large numbers of patients come in – severe flu like illness, but they are for the most part able to be discharged very soon. Saving the hospitals from being in a crash situation. There are also patients who are quite ill, and those patients, vaccinated or not, largely fall into the same familiar COVID risk factors – obese, diabetic, immunocompromised. There is a trend toward the unvaccinated having a bit worse outcomes in the group that gets very ill.

    I am seeing the same pattern here – but much smaller numbers.

    It appears the jail system in that county in California is having the same kind of experience.

    What can be inferred by what we are seeing?

    A) At least for now, we are not seeing near the illness levels as during previous waves. It is happening to some, but not nearly as common as before. One can say this is the vaccine, however, the pattern is holding up in the vast majority of unvaccinated as well. It may be that the Delta variant is just not making people as sick. It could be that enough people in the community have at least some remaining natural immunity that they are able to fight this off better than last year (It is an open question how long that immunity will last). It may be that we in medicine have gotten much better at taking care of people in the early stages. And lastly, it must be put on the table, the widespread use of ivermectin and Budesonide may be helping people be less sick. In my area, there is widespread use of veterinary Ivermectin going on in several counties – completely unsanctioned by organized medicine. And I mean widespread. I am not seeing the amount of illness I was from these communities if any at all that I was seeing last year around this time.

    I am reporting observations and facts. I am not in any way advocating the use of veterinary Ivermectin. I absolutely prescribe the human version after I have discussed facts with rational human beings who are my patients.

    I will however say this. I am a veteran of the AIDS pandemic, and in my lifetime as a physician there have been multiple very severe flu epidemics that filled hospitals just like what we are seeing with COVID. Killing large swaths of people. During those times, I never heard or saw a physician being shamed or censored for using any kinds of medicine to try to help people survive. Not once. Prednisone, cough syrup, steroid inhalers, all kinds of antibiotics – you name it – it was used. NOT ONCE did I see any shaming. Not one of these things had any kind of RCT to back them up. In fact the exact opposite is true.

    There is a drug called TAMIFLU – it is FDA approved to treat the acute flu. The name brand is about 200 bucks the generic is about 50 bucks. An approved drug – that dating back almost 20 years multiple RCTs show IT DOES ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to prevent severe illness or death – NOTHING. There is even strong evidence it does nothing for symptoms. And yet is handed out like M&Ms during flu seasons both mild and severe. I have been in multiple journal clubs in my life about this very subject. And it actually does have safety concerns. And yet – we have a drug – ivermectin – with virtually no safety concerns and actually quite a bit of positive signal – and we are turning our backs on it as a profession. Shaming and censoring. I have seen signal with my own eyes that it can help keep people out of the hospital. I have seen the marked decrease in illness from places where it is having widespread use.

    Again, the physicians and patients of America deserve real answers. Doing real research trials – not trials like what are going on right now to purposely sabotage the drug – REAL TRIALS – would go a long way to restore the credibility of our federal officials which is now in tatters. The lies have become so thick now that I cannot even discuss what the officials say with my patients with a straight face. The patients – both Red and Blue – have LOL moments when certain topics are brought up. I have never felt so disconnected from the federal health officials – and it is not a good feeling. I have noticed that over the past 2 weeks, our local health departments in our area are ignoring much of what the CDC says – the insanity has gotten so bad.

    We have much to do in our profession, in both salvaging what is left of our credibility – and the researchers have much work to do to tease out all these hypotheses. The next variant may not be so kind.

    B). It remains crystal clear to me that the vaccines are really not doing a thing to slow the spread. Just way way too many breakthroughs are happening in all kinds of my own experience, my colleagues’ experience, and just numerous media reports.

    There are many potential complications to the widespread use of non-sterilizing vaccines in an acute pandemic with a contagion that can mutate this well. There are vigorous debates in medicine right now about what this may mean in the future. I am certain we will be hearing more about these issues going forward. But my experience this week after all the data coming in about these vaccines and some cold water in the face, is that many physicians and researchers are beginning to look at things with a new eye. The CDC and FDA and Pfizer have now been shown to be just a little less than credible. We will see how this all goes.

     
    1. IM Doc

      One thing I did not mention. With regard to the virus still allowing spread. I know that our media is completely focused on the death and hospitalizations – but it is also equally important to remember about LONG COVID. I am already seeing this in many of these recently positive patients – vaccinated or not. Brain fog, depression, and headaches being the top 3 symptoms.

      Not sure at all what to think about this going forward.



temporaryreality: (Default)
IM Doc

In my part of the country, the current large contingent of unvaccinated are avocado toast eating man bun wearing deep blue liberal young people.

They simply refuse to think about exposing their bodies to any kind of toxin. In general terms, this is one huge arm of the entire anti vaccine movement.

It is not the elderly Fox News crowd as the vaccination rate in the over 70s here and almost everywhere is 80% or higher.

The other large group are the younger evangelicals who in my experience are far more likely to be convinced to be vaccinated – they are not in general anti vaccine. They have just watched like everyone else the horror of the gross incompetence of the CDC and have trust issues. If they were really serious a move like firing Fauci would do wonders.

And yet another large group of racial minorities who are just not interested in another experiment.

And then the other gigantic group of workers who will be on the streets if they miss a single day of work.

The problem is these two groups for the most part live in very different geographic areas. In days old, the local health departments would employ vastly different outreach programs.

We no longer have local health departments that function alone. We have nationalized everything.

We are now enjoying the feast of consequences.

You can resent all you want but nothing will change the gross incompetence that got us here. I have become increasingly resentful personally about the resentments of the PMC crowd who spew all the time and then do absolutely nothing to help.

The lies that continue to be spewed by our media that this is just a deplorable MAGA problem will be the end of us all.


***

The following comments relate in some way to this post on NC

Hospital ‘Trauma Centers’ Charge Enormous Fees to Treat Minor Injuries and Send People Home

IM Doc quotes another comment (the original post and the comments are all worth reading)...
IM Doc

Our Medical for-profit-system has gone completely off the rails and I find it more than a little frightening.

You do not know how frightening I find it. And the very sad thing for me is I have living memory of what it was like 30 years ago before all this stuff really got going.

I tell people all the time that I work in the biggest wealth extraction machine that ever existed.

I would make sure everyone knows about another huge scam. In big non-profit systems, for every single visit from a physical to a sore throat, you as a patient will get to sit through a litany of someone asking you have you had this done or that done…..

The doctor you are seeing, let’s be clear, has a huge part of his income riding on whether or not he/she has strong-armed you into getting these things done. Whether the evidence is flimsy or not matters not. And you as a physician get monthly reports on how you are doing – and what your bonus will be and you better pick up the pace.

It would be one thing if these things were dietary education, elder care, mental health care, obesity training, exercise programs. I would be the first in line for that. BUT as you can tell, every one of those things is going to cost the system lots of money.

What are the things you get asked about? Colonoscopy, PAP smear, Mammogram, vaccine status, PSA, Lipid panels, bone density studies and on and on. They laughingly refer to these as “Quality Care Indices”.

Can you tell the difference? Every single one of the things they do are cash machines. Some of which are very iffy on the evidence. All the others I mentioned previously would be cash vacuums.

Let me make sure all understand what I am saying – THIS IS NOT ABOUT YOUR HEALTH – this is about maximizing every dollar from every “profit center” they can.

This is all the doing of the MBAs who started taking the system over in the 90s – they are now so entrenched it will take a nuclear bomb to get them out.

I see no hope for the entire system until it finally meets the brick wall. Not sure how long it will take – but I know for sure it is on the way.


****
re: a link provided in the day's NC entry,

IM Doc

About the US County Case count map – Area of Concern Continuum. The numbers are assuredly very unreliable because the CDC is not counting the vaccinated positives – but it is what it is.

Is it just me – or is there a rather obvious contingent of Blue State America represented there in red or orange? All the places we have been hearing from our media that are so much further along because they have so many more vaccinated….

I see LA and all of Southern California, The Bay Area, Portland, Seattle, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Denver, Austin, St Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, DC and Atlanta all in red or orange. Blue areas all. Even blue counties in red states like Dallas and Harris ( Houston) in Texas are red. And yes – there are plenty of red areas that are red on these maps too. But it is certalnly not lopsided like the media would suggest.

I have been a physician for 30 years. I have never seen a campaign in public health pitting one political faction against the other – like our media and politicos and health officials are doing now. And now the White House has admitted they are doing things with Facebook that would make Joseph Goebbels green with envy. This is simply unprecedented. I think we can all face reality and allow that the strategy is clearly not working and is indeed making things worse.

This is a test for this nation. I can assure you that the vaccine balkers in Seattle are a much different crowd than the vaccine balkers in LA or Dallas or Kansas City or Miami. We must begin to realize that a one size fits all approach is just not going to work. And coercion and threats are certainly not the answer. From a physician of 30 years, threatening people in any way about health decisions is just a complete imbecile move. You will completely alienate the patient, you will illicit extreme anger or other bad emotions – and you will almost assuredly make things worse.

We have limited time to get this right – but from the tone of the past few days it is clear to me that we are headed right to the brick wall.

I am hoping that the days ahead are not fraught. This may all very well blow over. But it may not. And if this does get ugly – we are going to need one another and not to be at each other’s throats blasting off blame cannons. I simply cannot believe that our health officials and media and politicos cannot see this – and by their actions over the past year allowed it to happen in the first place.


Jason Boxman

Gods, these people:

“We have come a long way in our fight against this virus,” Jeffrey D. Zients, the administration’s Covid-19 response coordinator, said at the briefing. “Because we have fully vaccinated more than 160 million Americans, we’ve fundamentally changed the course of this pandemic, from one that puts the lives and livelihoods of all Americans at risk, to one that predominantly threatens unvaccinated people.”

So I can think of no bigger moral failing here, than leaving unvaccinated people to die, as this administration is content to do through the CDC and OHSA; Federalism aside, there is still much that could be done/undone at the federal level, from proper mask guidance, to workplace safety requirements, to funding for recovery from side effects for workers, to universal health care (ha). Not to mention study of treatments.

As the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus fuels outbreaks in the United States, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned on Friday that “this is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated.”

And just who exactly gave that outcome a huge assist, with nonsensical masking policy?

These people are just nuts. And I’m sure they’re saddened, just saddened, by all this needless suffering. Whatever could have been done?!

Covid News: C.D.C. Director Warns ‘This Is Becoming a Pandemic of the Unvaccinated’ as Delta Fuels U.S. Outbreaks


IM Doc

Thank you kind Sir –
I could not have said this better myself.

“Leaving the unvaccinated to die.”

Here is the thing – I have been to this rodeo before with two different viruses – and this is not going to be pretty.

As a young intern, I was on the AIDS wards in a big urban American hospital. I would often sign 8-9 death certificates a day. COVID has nothing on that. Yes – it was that bad. To make things much worse – they were all young 20 somethings. They were for the most part completely abandoned by their families, left blowing in the wind. I have seen the evil that happens to people when we decide as a culture that x-group has it coming and just needs to die. I had believed that we had gotten past that as a culture. I was clearly wrong. It is more disturbing that the side that I thought I was on is now the one perpretating the shame on the country.

There have been two rather large flu epidemic years that have happened in America in just the past 15 years. Many hundreds of thousands died both times, hospitals and ICUs packed, millions sickened. I need to refresh my mind on the numbers but I believe in general the 2009 epidemic was a bit worse than COVID has been as far as deaths (not certain about that). Believe it or not, the amount of patients that just flat out refuse flu shots is staggering even in those horrible flu years. And even when weeks or months later the unvaccinated came into the hospitals sick as a dog, neither myself, the nurses, nor their culture at large treated them with disdain or as deplorables. The unvaccinated issue never was even mentioned. They certainly were not being maligned on TV by Rachel Maddow et al every night.

I often look in the mirror every day in the AM , and think to myself – What has happened to us? What has happened to my profession? How is this all going to end?


Dagnarus

On the Ivermectin study. The fact that the Elgazzar study was included in the meta analysis (especially with a low chance of bias rating) does not speak well of the meta analysis’s quality. Their stock has definitely gone down in my opinion.

I will state this in their defense however, (assuming they all aren’t grifters) they have come across a treatment method, which on, alot of the data, suggests it can safe lifes. The response from authority hasn’t been to quickly ramp up large RCT trials to quickly either confirm or deny, it hasn’t even been quiet indifference. It has been to attempt to stamp out this particular treatment. I personally think that people would be able to think a lot more clearly if needless pressure were not being applied.

On a related note https://bbcgossip.com/health/remdesivir-does-not-improve-covid-19-mortality-rates-study-finds/. Nobody is talking about removing the EUA on remdesivir. Nobody is talking about making it illegal for a doctor to prescribe it to their patient out the cost of $3000 for a cause.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I agree with every point you make.

    I do not believe any of these people are grifters. There really is not an ounce of grift in ivermectin to be had.

    And you are correct in your suspicion of remdesevir. I have not seen personally in any patient any benefit at all. I have maybe used it 40 times. The same can not be said for ivermectin where I have seen people improve dramatically.

    Unfortunately, we have had to start using it again the past two weeks. I had a husband and wife on Tuesday. Both vaccinated both positive and both having coughing SOB and fever. Husband took ivermectin and improved in one day. Wife did not and is still sick as of last night.

    I have too many stories like this for this to be just random chance.

    I have a moral and sworn obligation to my patients health. Not Fauci. Not Pfizer. I will continue right on using this until there is clear data not to. The safety profile is just too good and the risk benefit ratio is overwhelming.

    That is called the art of medicine.

    I know these fits and starts are frustrating. I take it in stride because I have seen this all before several times.

    Bactrim is now standard of care for PCP in AIDS. When I was a young Doc that was not the case. The evidence for its use came bubbling up from below and took years of bad trials and good trials and tons of obsstruction from Fauci et al before the proof was finally there.

    Ivermectin is almost the same story. Both drugs were considered “out there” at first. But Ivermectin has actually a much better safety profile. Medicine was not enthralled to the “RCT only” fetish back then so the thinking by medical practitioners on the ground was much more clear and ethical than it is now. That to me is the big problem we are facing other than the obvious stonewalling by our agencies.

    This remains a clear no brainer until there is real evidence either way.

    Pedro

    Anecdotes are not data.
    First do no harm.
    The ‘I will use until I have evidence it is bad’ makes me think of lobotomies.

     
    1. ambrit

      That’s a false equivalence.
      The cases of Ivermectin versus lobotomies are vastly different. The Ivermectin use actually saves lives. The other side of the equation does not “lose lives.” Lobotomies are medical intrusions aimed at changing personality permanently. For that purpose, it works. That it does so with significant side effects is another issue, separate from the original design. Either way, lobotomies or their non-use do not lose lives. To turn your argument ‘on it’s head,’ we can compare the use of lobotomies with the non-use of Ivermectin. Lobotomies have gained their negative reputation because they often destroy psychic lives. The non-use of Ivermectin also destroys physical lives. People die due to the blocked use of the drug. Do no harm indeed.
      Stay safe.

       
    2. IM Doc

      The problem with your reasoning is this drug has harmed less than a few dozen out of the billions that have taken it. The same could never have been said about lobotomies.

      And since there is virtually no harm issues and multiple very strong signals that it is at least helpful somewhat by medical ethical standards it must be given.

      I learned this lesson well in the AIDS pandemic with drugs of unknown efficacy then that are the standards of care now.

      This line of reasoning is especiallly germane during a worldwide pandemic.

       
      1. Phillip Cross

        Mentos mints are very safe to ingest, but no statistically significant evidence exists that they help cure or prevent Covid.

        Wouldnt it be a serious ethical issue if you tell people they work, and prescribe them anyway?

        What of the high risk people who hear you and then go to Safeways and buy Mentos, thinking it will protect them. They feel safe and then put themselves in harm’s way, and end up dead after getting Covid19?

         
        1. IM Doc

          The problem with this reasoning is that Mentos mints do not have dozens of studies out there already showing some efficacy.

          This is both in clinical medicine as well as bench research showing in vitro effectiveness that ivermectin has against SARS COV2.

          In other words, there are multiple studies that seem to suggest it does work.

          I guess I would remind you that the standard of care right now for people that real doctors are telling people to do all over this country is to go home and come back if you turn blue.

          In that kind of environment with no good options – I am willing to give my patients a safe compound that does seem to have some effect. As I have stated above – what I have seen with my own eyes seems to be more than random chance.

ajc

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/

In light of the Israeli government admitting the vaccines don’t work as advertised, maybe we can ask why our regulators and public health authorities ignored the substantial evidence that the mRNA vaccines are nowhere near as effective as has been repeatedly parroted for the last 6 months.

Furthermore, it appears that spike protein specific immunity induced by the ‘vaccines’ might be creating the next covid wave

https://twitter.com/holmenkollin/status/1415989536933490688?s=19

 
  1. IM Doc

    I would like to give credit where credit is due.

    There is an obvious statistical manipulation among the treatment arms that is evident in the original Pfizer trial. It greatly puts into question the results of the study. It would tend to make the touted relative risk reduction of 95% much lower – but it is impossible to know how much lower unless one has access to the primary data.

    I will repeat once more – I do not recall a single time in my life that the relative risk reduction has been used a a primary statistical endpoint for vaccine efficacy. My experience with that statistical contrivance is that is mainly used by Pharma for their glossies to bamboozle people. The RRR rarely comes up in journal clubs. It has very limited utility. But it sure looks good – even when the reality-based results are not so good.

    I have watched in horror as this RRR number has been touted to the American people for the past 6 months – giving them a completely false feeling that they are “95% protected”. That is just not what that number means. The fact that our public health authorities were not out in front of this misrepresentation and explaining this to the people will be an indelible mark.

    But who was it in my world who first noticed the problem with the management of the trial participants that could really goose the efficacy numbers?

    Why – that would be Yves. And she put these concerns in comments and maybe even a post. I just cannot find it now. Yves is one very intelligent person – but forgive me – if Yves can see it – why can not medical statisticians? Well – Dr. Doshi – whose blog you highlighted in your comment came out with a blog post discussing this issue in the BMJ a few weeks after it was noted here – and was laughed and censored out of the room by “experts”.

    I think we can look right now at the vaccine efficacy issues – and ask ourselves who was right?

    Citizens of the world, do you want your medical experts and medical debated muzzled by Big Tech under the direction of Big Pharma and governments? Is it becoming clear why this is a very bad idea?

    I sure hope so.

an important lesson on medical statistics:

Angie Neer

IM Doc, your comments have been a quite an education for me, and I’m sure for this whole community. Thank you! But I am still confused about what is wrong with RRR as a measure of effectiveness, and what is the better alternative? I’m not a dummy about statistics, but I’m missing something here.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I have been teaching medical statistics for 30 years – so I will be happy to do my best here for the commenters.

    This is usually done with graphical tables and white boards – trying to do this in text will be interesting but I think it can be done.

    This is probably going to be a bit long – so grab some coffee.

    I start off every group of students I have ever taught with a simple statement – “Statistics are very simple if you do not turn off your common sense.” If one is trying to be dishonest or to make his claim look better that it actually is – it is often very easy to find all kinds of statistical contrivances to do that for you. My job for decades has been to show students every dirty trick in the book. The relative risk reduction trick is one such thing that Pharma uses constantly to overstate their results. In and of itself it is not a problem, as long as you know exactly what it means and what you are looking at.

    In the original mRNA vaccine trials, the endpoint in the analysis was the relative risk reduction of about 95%. That does mean something. But it is not what is being presented to the American people. How do I know? I talk to them multiple times daily. They clearly have not a clue what this means. They are being told the vaccines are “95% effective” which is interpreted as you take the vaccine and you have a 95% chance of not getting COVID. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE. That is a blanket efficacy statement and has nothing to do with the relative risk. This has never that I can tell been explained – and I can see easily how uninformed laymen can make this assumption.

    The original Pfizer trial had more than 40000 participants. For simplicity sake for your understanding, I am going to make the denominators a round number and make sure the numerators are ratioed exactly the same as the Pfizer endpoints. That way you can understand better and wrap your mind around the numbers easily.

    Let us say that the vaccine arm had 1000 participants and 1 got COVID.
    The placebo arm had 1000 participants and 20 got COVID.

    So actually in the vaccine arm 999 people did not get COVID – so the efficacy number if we were doing this by the blanket approach that the vast majority of Americans would understand is that vaccine actually has a 99.9% effectiveness. That is correct. But wait a minute – that is not 95%.

    BUT THIS IS THE CATCH and this is the IMPORTANT part. When you make this blanket kind of comparison – you then have to have a second sentence. That would be the following – However, THE PLACEBO in the other arm prevented 980 people from getting COVID. That is right – a saline injection prevented 980 out of 1000 or 98% from getting COVID.

    IN OTHER WORDS, using a SALINE INJECTION has a 98% effectiveness for preventing COVID – if you use the numbers the way this is being presented to the American people.

    But the difference between the two arms is really quite minimal when you put them side by side:

    99.9% in the vaccine arm ———- 98.0% in the placebo arm –
    An actual reduction in risk (known as the absolute risk reduction) of 1.9% The actual number is 0.019.

    The relative risk reduction is a statistical contrivance – generated by taking the number of events in the placebo group (20) and subtracting from that the number of events in the vaccine group (1) – and placing that number (19) – over the placebo number ( 20)

    20-1/20 19/20 0.95 95%

    That is where the 95% comes from.

    The way most normal people think, again because I talk to them daily, they would understand the absolute risk ratio – the vaccine prevented 1.9% more COVID than the placebo. That is right 1.9%. The relative risk though is 95% – and that is what Pharma uses all the time in its glossies and ads. Please note (think about this the way the American people are being led to believe) the placebo success is 98% – which is even higher than 95%.

    Because of this discrepancy – another way to look at the data has been derived from statistics – and it is called the Number Needed to Treat – in other words in this case – how many people need to be vaccinated to prevent one person from getting COVID. This is very easily calculated by this equation 1/absolute risk reduction — in this case it would be 1/0.019 which works out to 52.63. 52 people are being vaccinated with no benefit for every 1 person that gets benefit..

    The big problem here is that relative risk reduction becomes more worthless the higher the number of subjects are compared to the actual signal. Having a placebo group of 20/1000 and a vaccine group of 1/1000 really skews the value of the relative risk reduction because they are so close together in a sea of people who were never affected. Accordingly, it is a very very poor way to describe efficacy in any vaccine trial – not just COVID. But they used it because it sounds so good. 95% sounds so much better than 1.9% ( They have been doing this for years – trust me).

    Let me give you two simple examples from history about drug efficacy and these numbers.

    In the early 1950’s a drug called isoniazid – or INH for short was introduced into the market for TB. In one of the very earliest studies done by researchers to Tulane in a Louisiana TB asylum, there were 70 patients (not 40000 as in the COVID trials). They were split into two blinded groups – 35 given INH for 6 months – 35 given a placebo for 6 months.

    The end goal was eradication of TB from the sputum..

    In the INH group – 33 out of 35 had eradication. 94% or 0.94
    In the placebo group 1 out of 35 had eradication. 3% or 0.03

    The absolute risk reduction is 91% or 0.91

    The relative risk reduction is 33-1/33 32/33 97%.

    The number needed to treat is 1/0.91 0r 1.1

    So in other words 1.1 patients needed to be treated for every 1 with benefit. The drug is a magic bullet – almost everyone benefited.

    And the absolute risk reduction (which most people would understand) and the Relative risk reduction were both above 90. An absolute stellar performance – and the drug was indeed foundational for TB therapy.

    Now – let’s do another drug that is not so successful – but was profoundly marketed by pharma using the relative reduction.
    That would be FOSAMAX for osteoporosis.

    The original study came out in the 1990s. There were 560 women on the drug – and 542 women on the placebo. The endpoint of the drug was prevention of hip fractures or vertebral compression fractures.

    In the FOSAMAX arm – 22 fractures out of 560 patients – 22/560 4% 0.04
    In the placebo arm – 36 fractures out of 542 patients – 36/542 7% 0.07

    We have an absolute risk reduction of 0.03 or 3%

    We have a relative risk reduction of 36-22/36 or 0.39 – 39%

    There is a number needed to treat with this drug of 1/absolute risk reduction – 1/0.03 of 33. What does this mean? 33 women had to take the drug – pay the 900 dollars a year, endure the side effects of GI issues, and brittle bones, and jaw necrosis, teeth falling out – for 1 women to avoid a fracture. Not too impressive.

    But all the while – Pharma glossies – and the TV were screaming at women – there is a 40% improvement in your bones. Oh yes, oh yes they did. If you look at ads from the era the 40% is big and bright and there is a little footnote – with microscopic type telling you this was a relative risk reduction as if your average American had a clue what that meant. It really is a scam. And the same thing has been done with statins, with psych meds, with diabetes meds, you name it. I can pick up any pharma ad right now – and this tactic will be there.

    I am very sorry that is so long – I know no other way of doing this. I have gotten to the point that I have written out a handout for my patients. I feel it is imperative that each and every one understands exactly what these numbers they are being shouted down with daily mean.

    Vaccines are usually measured on how they affect the immune response and how they affect morbidity and mortality. The only other one I can think of that ever used Relative risk reduction of case numbers is the shingles vaccine – and for obvious reasons – that disease process really is a case number kind of thing.

    The relative risk reduction of case numbers is a very very poor measurement of any other type of vaccine because we are usually dealing with tens or hundreds of thousands of subjects and cases that may number in the dozens. The more stark this contrast is the more useless is that relative risk number.

    The other important thing to realize is that because the way the relative risk is calculated, small differences in the numbers are actually quite large on a population basis. So when Israel came out this week and announced that the Pfizer vaccine is only 64% effective against Delta – I want everyone to understand – that is a HUUGGE discrepancy – far more than the “31%” implied. (I am assuming that the 64% is actually the relative risk reduction they are seeing in their current numbers – they never actually said – which is another entire issue that I am getting really tired of).

    I am mortified that our agencies are playing this Pharma game of using these statistics to goose their vaccine’s efficacy in the public mind. I really should not be though – this has been standard operating procedure for as long as I have been a physician.

  1. ambrit

    Thank you for the lesson. I’m printing this out to keep handy for when I see similar tactics tried.

     
  2. Carolinian

    I follow what you are saying but leaving aside the vaccines and their marketing it all circles back to the original debate about whether the danger posed by this disease is at all proportionate to the overwhelming response that has resulted. If society is going to heroically intervene to make sure covid is reduced to zero then even that 1.9 percent is significant. Perhaps it’s the goal itself that should be debated but this of course will get you kicked off Youtube.

    Myself, I’ve given up on arguing about this but just want to make that point.
     

    Sorry, for some reason the formatting stopped being carried over starting here - hopefully it'll be obvious which comments refer to which.

    IM Doc

    I have been a Dem my entire life.

    I have seen the major transformation of my profession into a wealth extraction unit.

    In almost every case, it was my Dem party that initiated these changes and could not wait to make it worse.

    Probably the worst that occurred was the dismantling and centralization of our public health system that the Obama administration was largely in charge of.

    We are now paying for this dearly.

    In the early stages of this pandemic In feb and March of 2020 when things that would have helped to cause the virus to go to extinction, Trump was stymied at every turn.

    Close international travel to China.

    You’re racist screamed Biden.

    Go eat in Chinatown said Pelosi.

    That is when it really mattered.

    Now we are just figuring out the best path to endemic status.

    Yes I cannot stand Trump. With regard to Carlson – he has had on guests that at least make you think.

    I quit listening to Rachel Maddow last year. The constant “all truth only flows from the government sctick” got really old and Chairman Mao and the Red Guard were so much better at that.

    What I am saying – there is no debate on the left – seemingly only suppression and towing the line.

    That is so not what I wanted in a liberal progressive party.

    I do despair sometimes. It seems every part of our polity is headed for disaster.

    I guess my rage is so much more focused on dems because I expected so much more.
     

    LifelongLib

    Most of the so-called PMC live off paychecks and can be fired. That makes them “workers”. Yes, there are social/cultural barriers between (say) “physical” and “mental” workers, people who went to college as opposed to trade school, and managers vs the managed. But all are very much in the same economic boat, and float or sink together. Separating out the “PMC” as a separate group with unique economic interests obscures more than it reveals.

     
  3.  
  4. Ahimsa

    @IM Doc

    Thank you so much for this!

    I have been pulling my hair out trying to explain this to friends and family about the Vaccine Efficacy numbers that are repeatedly touted and how BOTH the Absolute Risk Reduction AND the Relative Risk Reduction are critical to understanding.

    If you will allow me a short trivial example I use to when speaking to friends:

    Imagine an unvaccinated control group of 1 million where 10 people get a fatal disease infection.
    Now imagine a vaccine test group of 1 million where 1 person gets the fatal disease.

    Relative Risk Reduction 9/10 = 90 % (looks great, right!?)
    Absolute Risk Reduction 9/1,000,000 = 0.0009% (absolute effect is much less impressive)

    Therefore, it is critical to know the Abolute Risks involved before you can make an informed choice around a vaccine touting Relative Risk Reduction.

    (Note: Obviously, the numbers used above in my trivial example do not relate to Pfizer’s actual numbers but are designed to highlight the potentially misleading nature of RRR values.)
    And as you alluded, the metric of Number Needed to Treat has been completely underreported.
    I really recommend an article currently in WIRED magazine which is highly critical of the CDC and its director Rochelle Walensky. It goes into some detail on the nuances when considering the individual risk-benefit analyses for healthy teenagers. IM Doc will appreciate that the article also challenges the very idea of “mild” myocardiatis cases in teenagers. https://www.wired.com/story/the-cdc-owes-parents-better-messaging-on-the-vaccine-for-kids/

    The CDC Owes Parents Better Messaging on the Vaccine for Kids
    The agency’s strange math and blunt statements are missing key nuances—and may be underplaying myocarditis cases in teenage boys in particular.

    …Walensky cited a string of statistics that showed “the benefits of vaccination far outweigh any harm.” But some epidemiologists, public health experts, pediatricians, cardiologists, and other scientists dispute the CDC’s numbers, characterizations, and conclusion. The agency, they variously contend, is both exaggerating the risks of Covid-19 to young people and underplaying the potential risks of the vaccine to them.

    …The absolute risk of the vaccine still appears to be extremely small for young people but, on balance, when the data are seen through a different frame, the relative individual risk from vaccination, particularly for healthy young males, may be higher than it is to not be vaccinated at this time.

    …frankly, being in the hospital at all, is not a condition most people would associate with the word “mild,” even if some clinicians may describe it this way. Even on that point there is some dispute. Anish Koka, a cardiologist in Philadelphia, put it plainly: “There is no such thing as mild symptomatic myocarditis that puts a young person in the hospital.” He continued, “If you want to redefine ‘mild’ in the context of the pandemic, fine, then say you are doing that. I’m not against vaccines. But we need to be nuanced about how we talk about this.”

     
  5. Ahimsa

    To follow up on something IM Doc alludes to – there is a perhaps non-intuitive progression of Vaccine Efficacy.

    99% Vax Efficacy means 1/100 risk ratio (between unvaxxed and vaxxed
    95% Vax Efficacy means 1/20 risk ratio (tho’ only a drop of 4% in VE)
    90% Vax Efficacy means 1/10 risk ratio
    50% Vax Efficacy means 1/2 risk ratio

    64% Vax Efficacy (as reported in Israel this week) means ~1/3 risk ratio.

    And another bug bear of mine is that Vax Efficacy numbers are differentiated against a specific outcome. That is to say, the Efficacy varies depending on whether we are talking about efficacy against infection/symptoms/hospitalisation/death!

     
  6. Brian Beijer

    Thank you for this! I am also going to save this for the future. The only thing I didn’t quite understand is:

    the Pfizer vaccine is only 64% effective against Delta – I want everyone to understand – that is a HUUGGE discrepancy – far more than the “31%” implied.

    So, are you sayiing that Pfizer had implied that their vaccine was only 31% effective against Delta and that Isreal was disappointed it was only 64% effective? Where does the 31% come from? Sorry if this is a stupid question. I just can’t get my brain to understand that sentence.

     
    1. IM Doc

      The 31 is the difference between the initial 95 in the original study and the 64 the Israelis reported last week.

      Assuming that 64 was also a relative risk reduction.

  1. Stephen the tech critic

    Thank for your this detailed explanation of your reasoning about relative vs. absolute risk reduction and how Pharma uses the former to promote drugs which are not necessarily in the best interest of patients.

    The two examples you gave make clear that relative risk reduction (RRR) is not the “end of the road” for deciding whether a particular treatment is medically indicated. Now please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) isn’t really the end of the road either. The real goal is to balance the potential treatment benefits with the potential treatment risks (from side effects, among other things). NNT directly indicates the proportion of patients who benefit from the treatment *over the trial period*, but careful consideration of those words I just wrote points to some crucial caveats, a couple of which I will highlight here as both are relevant to the vaccines.

    First, with regard to the FOSAMAX trial, while I’m inclined to be highly skeptical of the drug’s utility, given the data you provided, I’d want to know other things before reaching a firm conclusion. (I’m speaking rhetorically here. I’m not requesting anything more from you.) I’m not just talking about rates of side-effects but also, the *duration of the trial*. Why? Because the longer the trial, the more likely patients will fracture their hips or vertebrae during that period. So if the trial period was only 1 year long, the benefit (if any has to be had) may not be nearly as apparent as it might be after 10 years when a lot more hips will (hypothetically) have been saved from fracture. The absolute risk reduction (ARR) often increases with duration in this way unless it’s normalized with respect to time somehow, for example in the way economic stats, collected at different intervals, are often “annualized” to make them easier to compare.

    Recall a few months ago all those extremely rosy “breakthrough ratio” figures like 0.04% that the CDC and others were hyping through the media to show “how well” the vaccines were doing. The problem? The trial period, between when each subject became “fully vaccinated” (plus two weeks) and the end of the sampling period was extremely short for most subjects. Most fully vaccinated people had just gotten their shots, which was clearly evident by looking at the daily vaccine trends. Furthermore, by the time most people had become “fully vaccinated”, the daily case rate had already plummeted from its wintertime high, meaning people were encountering the virus in the environment much less as well. Both the duration of the data collection period and the daily case rate (effectively, the *baseline risk* of catching COVID) impact those percentages substantially. The hyping of these figures was extremely misleading to the public. In fact, I attempted to estimate the *real* breakthrough ratio (which is just 100% minus the RRR, I think) using a crude model, and time series data of daily cases and vaccinations. I came up with around 75-80% RRR, but then I noticed that the two datasets I was using had major consistency problems that I could not reconcile. Hence, I did not bother to publish my work here.

    So not just the trial period but also the background risk of catching COVID affect the absolute risks and the ARRs where the vaccines are concerned. The latter is very much in contrast to the two examples you gave. In the TB trial, everyone was already sick and not likely to recover without intervention. Their “baseline risk” was almost 100%, so any relative reduction translated readily to absolute reduction as well. In the FOSAMAX trial, the baseline risk of fractures (normalized for time) likely remained fairly consistent between the trial and “real life”. Unless older women collectively engage in an extreme sports fad or go through other major nutritional or behavioral shifts, the baseline risk of fractures likely remains about the same between the trial and the “real world” at times in the near future.

    Contrast this with the pandemic and the vaccines. In the pandemic, the baseline risk is extremely variable depending on the prevalence of COVID (modified by some NPIs like masks/ventilation) wherever you are at any given time. Not only were the vaccine trials short in duration but they occurred during a time in which baseline COVID risk was actually quite low compared to where things went in the winter. Suppose we kept in place all the NPIs like distancing, contact tracing, restricted travel, masks, etc. which were widespread then and we managed to keep variants from evolving too much. This would keep the baseline risk low enough as to make the net benefits of the vaccines questionable. Until recently, places like Australia continued to follow stringent elimination policies, and for them, the vaccines made essentially no sense—that is until their recent public policy changes that is!

    Now, with the public policy shift toward ending all NPIs, and given that the vaccines don’t stop transmission, we are basically being subject to or about to be subject to a very high baseline COVID risk. If the virus is allowed to spread everywhere, which is where policy in the US and other places seems to be taking us to, then we’ll be more like the TB patients, and even “65%” effectiveness will mean a lot if it means staying out of the hospital. Let me emphasize that this “benefit” from the vaccines is entirely contingent upon the highly dangerous and irresponsible public policy that we have!

    Think about that for a moment. The assault on our health by TPTB through our corrupt and negligent government is what is enabling Pharma to “save us” with their “technology miracle” vaccines (or so we hope). When the vaccines were first being hyped, I speculatively compared them to the Boeing 737 MAX debacle and suggested there was a high likelihood of a catastrophic outcome. I am still in wait-and-see mode in that regard, but I nevertheless “boarded the MAX” myself (via Moderna) as I could see where the public policy was going. I saw the metaphorical gun barrel being turned on me.

    I likely caught COVID back in March ’20, and the “95% efficacy” reported by Pfizer was based on a very narrow definition of “symptomatic” disease which did not include *any of my symptoms*. (I couldn’t get tested then because I didn’t have the “right” symptoms and it was early. More recently, I spoke with the people I think I caught it from and they too suspect they had COVID but couldn’t get tested to confirm.) Furthermore, the “not symptomatic” case I suffered was followed by waves of additional symptoms over the year. Both the acute and extended phase of symptoms were mild relative to what a lot of people suffer, but they were still substantial. Some were quite concerning, such as numb toes (which I eventually traced to muscle and/or joint inflammation in the leg and ankle), brain fog, multiple episodes of conjunctival bleeding (“Pence eye”), and fits of dizziness after eating (which in hindsight may have been indicative of hyperglycemia). By the time I got vaccinated in May, I had been feeling almost back to normal for a few months, but unfortunately the vaccine triggered both a strong acute reaction (~75% of the original symptoms plus a new fever delirium) and more long-haul symptoms (mostly the muscle / joint inflammation, fatigue, brain fog, and disturbed sleep patterns). These persist to today.

    So on a very personal level, that 95% figure is pretty much rubbish because it says nothing about protection from what I experienced, which has definitely degraded the quality of my life more than a cold or flu would have. I presume that, in general, reducing the severity of illness also reduces the severity of after-effects, but I think we’re all in the dark as to how well the vaccines really work in this regard as well as with regard to how long these symptoms will typically last in people and how they will affect morbidity in the long-run. The recent numbers I saw suggesting (IIRC) ~0.6% morbidity after 6 months in *all* COVID recovered patients were not encouraging. Many of those who made it to 6 months may still end up prematurely dying given more time, and it wouldn’t surprise me if ultimately “long COVID” ends up being the more deadly form of the disease.

     
    1. IM Doc

      All of your comments are very important.

      I hope you can understand how complicated medical statistics are and the care which must be taken when interpreting and sharing them with patients.

      Hence my extreme disappointment with the way we have just been throwing numbers around.

      What I did above is just the basics. Going into the woods is not appropriate for this kind of forum.

      With regard to your last paragraph. My biggest fear after months of taking care of covid is actually long covid. Unfortunately, I am now beginning to see many patients with similar symptoms after the vaccines. We have a lot to learn about covid and we have a lot to learn about this first if its kind in world history vaccination program.
       


kareninca

A 24 year old whom I know through zoom church meetings has caught covid. He does not seem to be having a terrible time; he is mainly coughing a lot, but of course who knows if there will be long term effects. He’s in England; he was not vaccinated due to the shot not yet being available to him. He was working as a substitute mailman so he was out and about, but I’m sure he wasn’t partying in big groups. But here’s the thing – he has infected both his father and his boss. They were both fully vaccinated (I don’t know which vaccine), but they caught it from him anyway. I don’t yet know how sick they are. I presume this is the Delta variant.

This anecdote has sunk into the consciousness of an older church member I know here in Silicon Valley. He really felt as if being fully vaccinated made him safe; last week he went to a graduation party. It was outdoors, but it’s been clear for a while that being outdoors doesn’t help as much with Delta. I’ve told him countless times that he can still catch and transmit, and he’s well educated and otherwise rational but he just didn’t “get” it. He also read about the Texas Democrats on the plane and that helped open his eyes as well. Now he does “get” it.

Now people like him are bargaining with fate – “but it won’t be a serious case!” I hope they’re right but looking at who is hospitalized in Israel I don’t think they will be.

 
  1. Mikel

    Outdoor events…no one mentions that they all had to go to the bathroom.

    Not event talked about much in return to office conversations.

    What kind of air filters and other ventilation is being talked about for restrooms? What about lids for toilets foe when they are flushed?

     
    1. Lambert Strether

      Fomites are a logical concern, but there is no epidemiological study I know of that shows actual transmission, even if not the main means of transmission.

      I would have expected a study to have shown up from India at this point, given that they have big problems with sanitation.

      I think it’s good to be careful in general, but the days where we were obsessively cleaning our doorknobs and washing vegetables are gone.

      NOTE Fomites were, of course, what the dinosaurs experts at WHO and CDC blamed for tranmission at the famous Skagit Choir cases, but further study ruled them out:

      At the time of the chorale rehearsal on 10 March 2020, because of emerging concern about SARS-CoV-2, person-to-person contact and touching of surfaces was consciously limited, and hand sanitizer was used. No one reported direct physical contact between attendees to the County Public Health investigators.22 Although some choir members helped arrange the chairs and ate snacks during the intermission, the index case did not participate in these activities, and many other members reported not eating the snacks.22 Thus fomite transmission from the index case via chairs or snacks can be excluded. The index case used one of the bathrooms during the event and thus touched the door handle and other surfaces there, but only about six other choir members used that restroom (see Supplemental Information), and many choir members who did not use any of the restrooms were also infected. Indeed, the clustering of infected cases on the seating chart does not support transmission from a point surface contact(s) unless the people who sat together all touched the same contaminated surface. Thus, it appears highly improbable that the direct and indirect contact routes could account for a significant fraction of the transmission during this event.

       
      1. drsteve0

        I suspect what Mikel meant is that when a toilet is flushed a lot of aerosolization can occur.

         
      2. square coats

        I had been wondering about public bathrooms too with regard to aerosols, since it turns out that when you flush a toilet it has an “aerosol effect”.

        From webmd: “According to the research team, flushing can generate large amounts of airborne germs, depending on flushing power, toilet design and water pressure.”

        Aerosol generation in public restrooms (Phys Fluids, 2021): “Covering the toilet reduced aerosol levels but did not eliminate them completely, suggesting that aerosolized droplets escaped through small gaps between the cover and the seat. In addition to consistent increases in aerosol levels immediately after flushing, there was a notable rise in ambient aerosol levels due to the accumulation of droplets from multiple flushes conducted during the tests.”

        (not sure if maybe Mikel was alluding to the aerosol effect as well)

        Apparently also known as a “toilet plume”, MIT offers a possible answer: “we have to acknowledge that live virus may sometimes be present in feces, though it’s possible this occurs only rarely or only in the case of very severe illness. This makes it theoretically possible that live virus could be present in a toilet plume, resulting in aerosolized droplets and contaminated surfaces. […] Individuals would also have to inhale a sufficient amount of the virus to become infected, he points out. “Even in the unlikely case that a toilet plume aerosolizes some viral particles, you probably wouldn’t be in the vicinity long enough to come into contact with enough virus to make you sick,” he notes.”

         
        1. Lambert Strether

          Yes, I know about fecal plumes and I understand the logic. (IIRC, there was a SARS fecal plume that went up a chase in a Hong Kong apartment building and infected several platforms.)

          Put the lid down when you flush!

          That said, although again it makes sense to be careful, there are no epidemiological studies that show fecal transmission for Covid.

           
  2. Keith

    That’s the thing I have been wondering about. Is the jab really about not getting COVID or just not getting hospitalized from it? I tried looking into it before I got it, but couldn’t really find much, aside from authorities saying to just get it.

    I think it is an important issue, if true. I supposed the other issue is the seriousness of the delta variant. Is it as bad as the original, or like others have said, it is much more milder.

     
    1. Cuibono

      sadly that was NOT studied in the RCTs. lots of real world data that is subject o all sorts of problems

       
    2. drumlin woodchuckles

      That was my understaning. The mRNA neo-vaccinoid was designed to keep you from getting less sick from the covid it was never even intended to actually keep you from getting, technically speaking.
      It was only meant to make you get less sick.

      At my age and with my co-morbidities, I decided it was worth the risk. So I got the moderna brand mRNA neo-vaccinoid.

       
        1. chris

          The vaccines we have were developed to prevent severe disease and death from COVID-19. It seems that they confer other benefits too, but, they do not provide sterilizing immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

           
        2. drumlin woodchuckles

          Its not a classical dead virus or attenuated virus vaccine. Its a new and different technology. So I tried to create for myself a new and different word to describe the newness and difference of this not-a-classical-vaccine.

          And “mRNA neo-vaccinoid” is the best I could come up with.

           
    3. Lambert Strether

      > Is the jab really about not getting COVID or just not getting hospitalized from it?

      To me, the jab is about:

      1) Really good odds of not being hospitalized or being very sick

      2) Good odds of not getting sick

      3) Less good but still real odds of not transmitting.

      To me as a personal matter, #1 is sufficient.

      As a policy matter, #3 really, really worries me.

      Adding, I don’t know if the Delta variant is inherently milder, or (a) we have better treatment now, so people don’t get as sick, or (b) it’s hitting a younger and stronger population.

       
      1. drumlin woodchuckles

        Could there also be a choice 4) . . . . that widespreading Delta cases will seemfeel mild in the acute now, but will leave behind body cell microdamage which will show up as “premature onset” chronic diseases of old age or other chronic disease? Or also leave organ systems with zero margin of safety so that an otherwise survivable disease becomes non-survivable?

        Like if Delta covid silently attrits my kidney function down to 50% and then I get something else which removes the other 50%, I will be left with 0 % kidney function where otherwise I would still have had 50% kidney function left if not for getting Delta covid?

        Is that also a mass-demographic outcome we should expect and will see starting in 25-30 years?

         
  3. IM Doc

    I think you are very right.

    I studied the stages of grief from Elizabeth Kubler-Ross years ago when I was a medical student. It has served me well with individuals dying or undergoing some other tragedy.

    Now, unfortunately, I think we are going to be experiencing these stages as a society the next few weeks. The first stage is denial – I think our media and federal officials are still there – but the people for the most part are beginning to move on. The next stages are bargaining like you stated above and anger/rage. In my experience with individuals those two often happen at exactly the same time. I do think this next few months has the potential to be a very fraught time. Please take care everyone.

IM Doc

I have been providing updates on the situation from my little slice of small town America for the past several months. Since we now seem to be entering an impending wave or at least “something” I am going to write this out in the comments weekly. I do think it is important to know how this virus is being lived out in the real world of flyover country and away from the large metropolitan areas. And the bumbling on the TV is about as alien to what is happening on the ground here as if it were being broadcast from Alpha Centauri.

I live in a county where the vaccination rate among those over 70 is right at 90% and those from 18-70 is right at 50%. That seems to be way better than most of America.

In my own personal practice from the last week – JUL 12th through JUL 18th there were exactly 27 positive COVID patients – 70% vaccinated, 30% unvaccinated. As has become apparent for the past few weeks – the vaccinated patients are more likely to be a bit more ill. They have much deeper coughs, X-ray changes and fever more commonly than the unvaccinated. One thing that has also become clear for the past few weeks is how often the vaccinated come from clusters of groups that have multiple members fall ill – ie social events, civic events, church activities, etc. The unvaccinated are mostly lone events.

Please note – the reason there may be more vaccinated – is the unvaccinated are trending toward younger people – and they may not come to the doctor. But the facts are that there are plenty of vaccinated patients becoming positive as well – and going all over the community sans masks and spreading the wealth.

Not one of my patients has become remotely ill enough to be in the hospital. We had a close call a week ago – but that individual has had a full recovery. In the community, however, we have had 3 vaccinated patients become very ill and need to be transferred to a higher level of care. No one unvaccinated has been in the hospital. All 3 were very high risk, older, obese, diabetic, etc. At the time of this writing, all 3 are doing very well.

The tempo seems to be picking up dramatically, however. So far we have had 11 patients just this AM calling in with colds and coughs and fever. All are being tested – no idea what the results are yet.

As of now, it seems there is a high percentage of vaccinated who are becoming ill and positive – much higher than advertised. At the same time, the level of illness has remained relatively low – so at least we have that good thing.

But there is a bigger problem brewing.

Life in small town America – can be quite clarifying – as in crystal clear.

I have been a denizen of big mega-cities all my life – so this is all new to me. But I am able to see aspects now of why rural America may have a bit more skepticism toward the authorities.

You see, it has been being reported in the local news that we have very minimal cases and all the positive patients are mostly unvaccinated – go and get the vaccine and save your town, etc. All of these positive vaccinated people are just not being counted – but that does not stop them from these misleading statistics being broadcast.

And I know Kamala Harris laments the fact that we in rural America do not have the ability to do photocopies – but trust me – these are among the brightest people I know – they can do math.

So, the Mrs and I were in our Sunday School Class of 150 yesterday. The preacher got done with the lesson early – and looked at the crowd and basically announced that we are going back on the war footing in the church effective today. Absolutely none of his widows, widowers, anyone over 70 or anyone with severe medical problems will be going out for groceries or mail or drugs or anything – we are starting the church plan again where the young people will get their stuff and deliver it. And by the way – those helped will include anyone in the town at high risk. (They did this for 9 months last year – I could not be more proud of these people – there is a reason my county is in the top 5% of mortality statistics).

And then he looked right at me – Doc – do you know why I know of personally more than 20 vaccinated positive patients and our papers are not talking about that? Should we be careful with these people too? —- Jaw dropped to the floor – but for sure – I am not going to get involved in this misrepresentation – I have been pissed for months about the whole situation….. NO SIR – I have no idea why that is happening – but I applaud your efforts. Everyone needs to be told to get out in the sun, VIT D 2000 units daily, exercise, lose weight, get your blood glucose down. The most important thing – LOOK OUT FOR ONE ANOTHER. I want this whole mishmash about vaccinated vs unvaccinated to just pass us by – We need to rely on each other now more than ever. AMENS from every corner.

The issue – the powers that be are just not going to be able to hide anything from people forever – public health is all about brutal honesty – and the blowback will be severe once the deception is obvious and once the storms have passed. Things like this become much more obvious in small towns – way before they do in the big cities where the media denizens are located.

Did I ever think I would live to see an old clergy member making more sense than our federal public health?

Commenters, I do not know what we are going to be facing in the next few weeks. It may be bad. It may be a nothingburger. But please – take care of yourselves. Take care of your families and friends. Look after one another. We are all actually in this together.

Godspeed.

 
    1. IM Doc

      Yes – sorry – 70% vaccinated – 30% unvaccinated
       

      Keith

      Thanks for all the info you share. Not sure if this is a proper question, but do you notice break through cases happening more with one vaccine than another? Is it even something the medical authorities are looking at?

       
      1. IM Doc

        I would guess (and it is a guess) that we are about 50/50 Pfizer/Moderna – there is a very small contingent of J&J. And, no, I am seeing no difference between the vaccines at all.
         

        kazy

        “the vaccinated patients are more likely to be a bit more ill. They have much deeper coughs, X-ray changes and fever more commonly than the unvaccinated.”

        Why do you think that those who are vaccinated are more severely ill when they have the virus than those who are unvaccinated who contract COVID 19? Are you suggesting that something in the vaccination is making them sicker?

         
        1. IM Doc

          At this point – I am not suggesting anything –

          In my personal dealing with patients – I am observing – and reporting what I am seeing. I am sharing what is happening on the ground in my life. Answers to this would require virology labs and lab staff – completely unavailable to 99% of America. When/if I ever have any clue why this might be happening – I will let everyone know. Or it may change and I will let everyone know this as well.

          I am reporting only that which is seemingly happening too often to be random chance.

          I am hoping that everyone who is vaccinated (and unvaccinated for that matter) will pay attention and realize that if they are feeling ill in any way they really need to stay at home and call their doctor. And I mean that. Anyone at this point who is having a cough or congestion should be at home and not walking around the grocery store with or without a mask. I think we are all taking this a little too lightly.

Tinky

Thanks Doc. I join the chorus in praising your efforts.

As the evidence mounts suggesting that there is actually quite good natural immunity derived from having been infected, are you getting any sense of its durability?

Also, is there any way to test for previous, though relatively remote (i.e. many months or greater than one year) infections, without having to accept a syringe through the sternum?

Thank you.

 
  1. IM Doc

    Again, I do not have a virology or immunology lab handy in my office so those answers are simply not knowable. I am certain, however, this work is being done all over the country in these types of facilities.

    However, one can assume things in roundabout ways from other evidence. I have been very careful to note if any of the positive patients (both vaccinated or unvaccinated) have been previously diagnosed with actual COVID. In my panel of patients, that number is right at 18% – counting all cases since JUNE 1. So there does seem to be a fairly significant number of breakthrough from previous COVID infections as well. I have not broken this down as far as timing. I have no data if these patients were infected 3 months ago or 18 months ago. But that does seem to be a fairly high amount regardless of the timing.

    As I have heard from the beginning from many many virologists, in this family of viruses, and other respiratory viruses as well, herd immunity is just not a realistic endpoint. There are other commenters that can speak to this issue from much better expertise than I.

     

    Aumua

    I still don’t see that there’s anything new appearing about the vaccines and their effectiveness, that we didn’t know months ago. They don’t necessarily protect you from getting COVID, from transmitting it or even from having symptoms. They do protect from life threateningly serious symptoms. I believe also that they do prevent infection altogether in at least some and probably the majority of exposure cases. Just look at the numbers. Infection and deaths have fallen massively in the U.S. since the vaccine rollout began. Yes in the U.K the cases have rebounded quite a bit, but deaths still remain very low (order of magnitude) compared to Jan and Feb. The vaccine may be less effective against some variants. Also not really a surprise.

    The amount of speculation running rampant in the wild is very high about all this, and I would hope that we try and stay as grounded as possible here. I am willing to consider that my beliefs about the vaccines might be wrong, and that even the craziest theories could be true. But just because something could be true doesn’t mean it is true. I’m willing to accept even anecdotal data points too if they are coming from someone who has significant first hand experience like IM Doc. But even so that is still only one data point among many. It’s probably going to take a lot of evidence to move me from my basic position that the COVID vaccines are generally effective and safe, with some exceptions.

     
    1. Basil Pesto

      The problem is when you say ‘nothing we didn’t know’, who’s ‘we’? The magic bullet theory of the vaccine was pretty widely disseminated, and was even a future assumption being made last year – eventually vaccines would come and everything would go back to normal. It’s losing steam now, but it had enormous traction for a long time without critical consideration of the unknowns regarding this new treatment. If health authorities and the journalists covering them had been up front about this from the beginning, it would have been better for all concerned, if we go by IM Doc’s formulation of trust being the sine qua non of public health.

      The other issue remains over the questions and concerns about immune escape: That a decent vaccine in a population that takes no other controls (because the population has been running with the magic bullet vaccine theory; see eg the CDC’s Mission Accomplished performance) runs the risk of doing more harm than good in the long run, as more virulent and unmanageable variants of the pathogen develop in this amenable environment. It’s this line of thinking that led me to post this comment in Corbishley’s post late last week (reposting because I’m still interested in input):

      I remain unvaccinated but am now a lot more interested in getting one as Australia seems to be on a bit of a delta knife edge.

      A thought occurred to me this week as to how we might better conceive of the vaccinations, which has been my conception without really realising it until I thought about it this week: Thinking of them as a last line of defence, instead of a (or, in many places, the only) first line of defence. That’s to say, we should think of them, ideally, as a kind of failsafe, after taking various NPIs (border control, masking, ventilation) and prophylaxis (vit D, melatonin and the rest). This is instead of the prevailing “magic bullet” cure theory of the vaccine (although this theory is becoming less prevalent by the day).

      I’d be interested in whether you & the other medical/Covid brains trust posters think this line of thinking has any merit/utility from a public health point of view, although I suspect it’s too late to broadly change the messaging now.

      All of which is to say, vaccination remains a tool, as you rightly point out, but not the tool (because as it stands, there is no singular tool to bring this under control. The sooner this is understood broadly by the public the better off I think we’ll all be).

       
      1. The Rev Kev

        Just had this medico on TV saying that we have to “learn to live with the virus” causing me to using many unchristian-like words. This was immediately after watching people wearing masks, deserted streets, lock-downs, testing ques, deaths, businesses shutting down, cancelled holidays, hospitalizations rising. That to me is what learning to live with the virus looks like. To hell with that noise. When I hear a medico talking that way, I am now never sure if he is talking advice from the medical/political establishment or whether he is talking his stock portfolio. That type of question was never on my bingo card as in ever.

         
      2. Aumua

        You are right, when I say “we” I do mean we who are probably exposed to a higher quality of analysis and opinion than many. I suppose I personally never held any “magic bullet” beliefs about that vaccines because of that (still, they are having a positive effect). And I still see the mainstream constantly pushing the idea that continued spread of COVID is all on the unvaccinated, and that “breakthrough” cases in vaccinated people are extremely rare, like this article from today does. I think it’s becoming more and more obvious that breakthrough cases aren’t all that rare.

         
    2. IM Doc

      I think what you are saying is generally very correct.
      The appropriate studies were never fully and completely done on these vaccines, other than minimal studies about symptom reduction and case numbers. That may be what we are seeing right now.

      The big problem is that they are clearly non-sterilizing – they do not effectively help to end transmission. The issue there is that with a virus highly efficient at mutating – that allows many many more to be infected to give the virus many many more playgrounds in which to mutate.

      We have never really introduced a non-sterilizing vaccine into an acute pandemic before. It is very unclear exactly what all consequences that will entail, if any. There are some concerns about this issue from the veterinary literature – but whether this virus has the ability to do what those animal viruses did in the past is really pure conjecture at this point.

      Again – we are all just going to have to realize that this is a WORLD problem – this is not a DEMOCRAT/REPUB problem, an AMERICA/CHINA problem – a world problem – especially now that we are clearly headed for endemic status.

      In our media I hear all the time that endemic status is fine – we just have to learn to live with it.

      Let me clarify something very clearly – MALARIA is endemic – and it kills millions every year. HIV started as a pandemic and is now endemic – and kills millions every year.

      To be “endemic” in infectious disease is not to be a “teddy bear” like it is being presented so often to the American people right now.

neo-realist

The vaccines were very effective against the original variant and the UK one, but less effective against delta. You’d have a lot more very ill and dead people from covid-19 w/o the vaccines. The vaccines targeting the spike protein are a decent short term measure until an effective approach that neutralizes the virus can be discovered.

 
  1. IM Doc

    The problem is that if you are indeed allowing a vaccinated person to have minimal symptoms at the same time the virus is not sterilized, you have effectively turned that person into an incubator for more mutant expression.

    And then multiply that person by millions. You have to think in large numbers here. Allowing this much genetic mutation capability is a real issue for future variants that could be a lot more toxic.

    If the vaccines were sterilizing, the person would have no symptoms AND the virus would be inactivated and unable to change.

    That is the concern with non-sterilizing vaccines. It is basically what could happen in the future.

IM Doc

To Lambert and Yves and all commenters here –

Sorry to have another update in just one day – but I think this is so illustrative of what is going on right now that I feel compelled to share.

I did not feel well when I got home from work last night. As the night wore on, I began to have a very severe cough, very loud wheezing (I do not wheeze), a mild headache, and a fever of 101. I knew exactly what was going on. As soon as I could, I called work to tell them I was not going in and headed right to medical care to be checked – and indeed I am now positive for COVID. I was fully vaccinated in mid April.

To me, this day was not and if but when. From the very first day in my internship in the big city in the middle of the AIDS pandemic – one of the leading internists in the country told my class – “We do not run from pandemics, we run into them.” My office of fully vaccinated staff has already had one wave of COVID go through about a month ago that somehow I missed – my time was up last night.

I am in great physical shape for my age – very healthy – and am already feeling much better today – I am going to be fine. But what has happened in the interim since this AM – has been eye-opening.

I was actually called by a health department phone operator within an hour or two of my diagnosis. They then put another administrative person on the line who informed me that I was vaccinated – and therefore no quarantine was necessary. I told them right away that was ridiculous – and I would be staying at home for now. Within 30 minutes, someone from the state health department contacted me – and I will be brief – informed me that it was very reckless for me as a physician to be talking about quarantine of myself a vaccinated person – the CDC has told us this is not necessary – you cannot spread the virus – doing this would potentially discourage others from vaccination – It may cost lives – My response – “so having me, a positive COVID patient, hang out in exam rooms or the grocery store with obese diabetic cancer patients is not going to cost lives? Please if you think I am being reckless – report me to the Medical Board – I will happily discuss this with my peers.”

These are the kinds of things that occur with pathologic lying. People actually begin to believe the accumulated lies are truth. All rational thought is completely clouded. I will state for the record – that neither person who spoke to me today was an MD DO RN or MPH. All administrative. I truly believe that most health care workers are beginning to wake up. I think a real genuine health worker would have rotted in hell before making such statements.

I called one of my old students/residents right after this call. He is currently the head of the Internal Medicine Dept at one of our big universities in Blue America. I was informed that out of the 20 or so faculty members in his division – all 100% vaccinated – 7 of them had become ill with COVID in the past few weeks. We kind of laughed nervously about the 95% number for relative risk reduction – and how we as a profession were about to learn that misrepresenting numbers like this to the public was a very bad idea. Then some profound statements from him ——

“I have been dealing with this nightmare called evidence-based medicine for years. Students and residents both now tell me that only peer-reviewed RCT are what they should be looking at – nothing else matters. They would not know the difference between a relative risk reduction and an incidence if they had to – they do not even bother to look at anything but an RCT – therefore they know nothing of medical statistics. This has been on full display for the world to see the past 18 months. Just look at any Twitter feed. We have a lot of work to do.”

And I, IM Doc, have several times discussed the human theater, the “stupid human tricks” of putting your vaccination photos on Facebook or TV as a motivator. And then spend days talking about the bad reaction you had to your vaccine – “I got really sick – Hallelujah – I know it has activated my immune system”. I got so so tired of that chestnut – but it was all over the Internet for months. Any vaccinologist, immunologist – etc – would tell you that was just horse shit. And now you know why that was a very very bad unprofessional thing to be doing. It literally motivates no one, and now there is going to be lots of explaining going on.

My old student today – “Actually the Facebook vaccination meme was the second worst thing. The absolute worst was the whole health care TikTok Video dancing – often done in ERs where there were lines of sick people waiting. It made me want to punch the wall. But now all these kids that put their Facebook vaccination photos online and bragged about it – are going to get to explain to all their patients and friends how they still got COVID after the vaccines – we have quite a few housestaff and students fully vaccinated becoming positive – not just the faculty.”

“Young Grasshopper – pride goeth before a fall”. There are those of us who have been warning that all was not well with our entire approach for months – and were laughed and scoffed out of the room. We as a profession are going to have a lot to answer for.”

All that is from my old student – now a leader in academic medicine – I am so so relieved – people are starting to wake up.

The take home message from where we are today –
These vaccines are non-sterilizing. That means they may limit or eliminate symptoms – but they do nothing for the spread. There are probably all kinds of vaccinated patients harboring active infections at this very minute and they have no clue – the vaccine is making them not sick. But they are sharing it with all around them. Many if not most of them taking no measures because the CDC told them they did not have to – YOU ARE VACCINATED. The good news for today is that the symptoms, hospital, and death all seem to be low. The bad news is all of these harboring the virus are further playgrounds for the virus to mutate. And when you allow it to become more and more widespread – the more likely a really bad mutant will come to the fore. That is THE danger of non-sterilizing vaccines being used for a virus that is profoundly capable of mutating.

My advice today – DO NOT PLAY INTO THE DIVISIVE UNVACCINATED/VACCINATED GAME – at this point and in the near future – it is going to become increasingly obvious this is just not a hill to die on. TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF and YOUR FAMILY. Find and identify any elders in your community that may need help. Plenty of sleep – plenty of sunshine – lose weight, exercise, eat well – vitamin D 2000 daily. AND SMILE. It does wonders.

God bless us all.

Yves Smith

Sorry, there is evidence from Israel. Covid infections are proportional to the vaccination levels in the population. That implies the vaccines provide no/little protection against getting infected but do blunt severity:

https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1413922415550291968

The US has no info because the CDC, as we have repeatedly said, is not recording cases among the vaccinated unless they wind up being hospitalized.

IM Doc says that via his regular Zoom meeting with colleagues who are affiliated with a major teaching hospital, that there are many infections among the vaccinated. They are seeing symptomatic cases and in this sample, the vaccinated are on average MORE sick. This may be sample bias, in that the elderly and those with co-morbidities would presumably have higher vaccination rates than the population overall. Recall that the elderly also have weaker immune responses. That’s why the winter flu vaccine has a separate, stronger over 65 version. And the vaccines had thin participation of older patients in the clinical trials.

This MD network is also seeing clusters of cases among the vaccinated (as in pretty much everyone in family groups) while the cases among the unvaccinated tend to be more isolated. That is a soft indicator that the vaccinated are propagating the disease (as in it is more likely that one member brought Covid into a household and it spread there than all members in parallel got it outside).

Now the vaccinated are presumed to be less infectious but there is no data either way due to the US refusal to gather any data. It is looking like they are contagion vectors, so even if less so, it doesn’t appear to be much less so.


Not IM Doc, but this one seems interesting:

Lemmy Caution

RE: CDC Director Says Delta Variant Of COVID-19 Among ‘Most Transmissible’ Viruses Known

As I read CDC Director Dr. Walensky’s comments about the Delta variant, I noticed she was throwing around a lot of percentages, but no raw numbers. IM Doctor recently warned about this very tactic regarding Covid messaging from health officials.

For example, Walensky says:

The number of new cases has risen almost 250% since the beginning of July, and states with low vaccination rates, including Florida, Texas and Missouri, are experiencing some of the worst outbreaks.

Here’s another one:

Walensky said last week about 97% of people who are hospitalized with COVID-19 have not been vaccinated, describing the situation as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.”

In the embedded video Walensky gets even more vague, saying:

We are at yet another pivotal moment, with cases rising again and some hospitals reaching their capacity in some areas.

It struck me that the CDC is sure interested in using case counts to scare everyone into getting vaccinated, even though they’ve stubbornly stuck to their guns about only being concerned about tracking and reporting Covid-related hospitalizations and deaths.

So this article is a case of the dog that didn’t bark. Why didn’t Walensky climb up on her hobby horse of hospitalizations and deaths because of this terrifying new Delta variant, which she says is the most aggressive and infectious she’s ever seen?

Using the graphs posted by Lambert each day in Watercooler, I took a look at what is going on in the measures the CDC says are so crucial.

Looks like new hospitalizations are about 9 people (18+ years old) per 100,000 the week ending July 17, 2021. They haven’t been that low since March, 2020.

Covid-related deaths are down to a daily rate of .76 per 1,000,000. They haven’t been that low since March, 2020.

Excess mortality rates are down to 2.63%. That is actually quite a bit below the excess mortality rate of 4.36% reported back in March, 2020.

According to the goalposts set by the CDC itself, we are in better shape than we’ve been in nearly 1 1/2 years.
I’m not saying the Delta variant isn’t something to be concerned about; just that the scaremongering from our fearless leaders continues.


Jeremy Grimm

I wonder how young doctors feel about their choice of career. I doubt they entered medicine and assumed the large debts to pay for med-school so they could work as employees of firms run by private equity or Corporate managers. I expect it might take some of the profession out of being a medical doctor.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I expect it might take some of the profession out of being a medical doctor.

    It has taken it right out.

    I was in the big city for decades – in a large academic center. About 7 years ago or so – the faculty practices were consolidated into a large “non-profit” run by MBAs. Within a year – I realized I was in a company that may as well be run by vultures. That is literally what they are. The stated goals of the MBA profession are a direct 180 from the MD profession. The fact that these vultures are in charge of everything in a system where the “consumers” or patients are at their most vulnerable is a crime of the ages. My immediate elders when I was a young doctor that are all gone now would have scarcely recognized the current raping mantra employed by these companies. What has allowed this to happen? The pencil necked assholes in the Ivory Towers in Boston and NYC and DC who are MDs who never see a patient but tell everyone how to do it – and then it was hugely made worse by Obamacare.

    I cannot stress upon everyone enough – if you have a choice – do not go to any physician that is affiliated with any kind of non-profit. They are often worse than the profit corporations, at least they have some accountability. And I know there are huge swaths of America that have no choice.

    My wife was putting constant pressure on me – she was the first to realize that my job was literally killing me. We left the big city – and are now in a very small town in a very remote part of the country. The hospital is run by a board elected by the taxpayers – COMPLETE accountability to the community – and I feel like I have taken a step back in the past when I was young. It has been an incredible change in so many ways. Is it perfect? – NOPE – what in life is? But I can certainly live and thrive here – and not feel I am going to burn in Hell one day.

    The elite have completely destroyed the profession of medicine – and have completely dismantled our public health system. Both were once the envy of the world. I hope and pray that we can all see in the past 18 months how vulnerable these losses have made the whole population to the predation of the elites.

    I see no solution until we hit the brick wall.


re: Breakthrough Infections of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant in Fully Vaccinated Gold Miners, French Guiana, 2021 

IM Doc

About the French Guyana paper from the CDC

This is how science – the actual process – not the Fauci version – should be working.

I have repeatedly stated that I am seeing much much more vaccinated positives than one would ever have expected. As I have stated, they seem to be much sicker (though not critically so) and they tend to happen in clusters. For the past two months, this has stuck out from the dominant media narrative. I have never had to fight the cognitive dissonance between the media and my own eyeballs in my life.

I belong to a large non-public alumni group of my residency program that has literally thousands of IM docs all over America. The first thing a scientist does is to confirm that your observations are general or something you are just seeing. It was quickly obvious from that group that I was far from alone despite the “minimal breakthrough cases” media narrative.

So, then you do everything you can to hypothesize reasons why you are seeing what you are. I have been a physician for 30 years and that experience plays a huge role as well. Having this gigantic number of breakthrough cases just simply does not happen. I continue to see more than half the cases in vaccinated patients and so do many others. UNHEARD OF IN VACCINES BEFORE NOW.

Part of hypothesizing why is looking to the literature for evidence. Seldom is this found in RCT at this stage. Case reports and series like this paper are critical. They are seeing the same breakthrough ratio. And they have done a lot more viral research than you can. This is a gold mine for my own questions.

Is there anything in the paper that could possibly explain what I am seeing. Lots of times, it is not in the headline part but in all the test results and discussion. And yes, there is a very important finding deep in the results.

Why would clustering and sicker patients be so much more common in the breakthrough patients – there must be a reason for that?

If you look at the brief discussion of cT or cycle threshold you will see that the vaccinated patients have a SIGNIFICANTLY lower cT than the unvaccinated. That is the way the PCR test works. It basically means the vaccinated have a much higher amount of viral active particles than the unvaccinated. That would account for the breakthroughs I and my colleagues are seeing being a bit more ill. And it would explain the clustering. THe vaccinated breakthroughs have much higher viral load so they are much more contagious and the higher viral load makes them more symptomatic.

So we now have a suggestion and strong evidence that the vaccinated population may be spreading much more virus than the unvaccinated. I would say that is a critical public health issue and must be further researched immediately.

This Certainly needs much more work. THis is not confirmatory of any conclusions. But it is consistent with observation on the ground – unlike most of what the media has been spewing to the American people. But this is how science works. This paper is about the gamma variant but a conference yesterday with experts discussed that similar findings were being found in delta and lambda. The suggestion in this paper is now on the front of my mind. I am even now thinking of ways to confirm or falsify these conclusions going forward. This is science.

Another issue. The writers make the point that the breakthrough rate is extremely divergent from the expected rate. The difference is this paper documents what is happening in REAL LIFE. So much of what we are hearing on our media about vaccine efficacy is research being done in vitro. It is presented as gospel truth. I just want to scream.

I am doing great and thanks for all the kind words. More about my week later. The commenters here are the best in the internet and I so appreciate my time here.

  1. Shonde

    First of all, thank you for sharing all your on the ground observations.

    A question: You were tested for the virus and found positive. Do you have any idea where your test landed on the cycle range when you were found positive?

     
    1. IM Doc

      Because I am a very persistent physician – they did share with me the number – 18. And later this week I did find out it was the delta variant. If the delta variant has reached my remote location – you can be assured it is now everywhere.

      The subsequent tests I have done they have refused to supply the number.

      I was fully vaccinated in mid April.

Dean

The article discusses cT values;

“CT values were not different according to the immune status: median (interquartile range [IQR] of Ct (RdRp1) = 29 (25-35) for non-immune (n = 3),
21.5 (18-25) for vaccinated 1 dose (n=6) and 23 [21-27] for vaccinated 2 doses (n = 13), p = 0.15 with median test. For RdRp1: median [IQR] = 28 [25-33] for non-immune (n = 3), 20 [20-23] for vaccinated 1 dose (n = 5) and 23 (21-26) for vaccinated 2 doses (n = 13), p = 0.09 with median test. For N gene: median (IQR) = 32 (30-34) for non-immune (n = 2), 26 (25-28) for vaccinated 1 dose (n = 5), and 27 (26-31) for vaccinated 2 doses (n = 14), p = 0.30 with median test”

The P values do not show a significant difference. One problem is n is so small it is hard to detect a difference if it exists.

There is this Nature communication:

Initial report of decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load after inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01316-7

 
  1. IM Doc

    Yes – these are all true – however – this was a case series – never meant to be a definitive discourse on that issue. If you read what I said – this is a possible signal. Nothing is confirmed. But a very important one. And certainly goes right along with what I am seeing. And a huge swath of my colleagues.The health departments across America should be watching for this right now. But we are not even counting vaccinated positives yet.

    There are now press reports showing up about one vaccinated individual being a superspreader person among other vaccinated and unvaccinated. And this goes right to the debate of masking and mitigation. Unfortunately it is also a very important issue for the vaccination of kids in school issue. You have to assume that all the breakthrough cases are all spreading virus – and they have been told not to mask. So they are just walking around everywhere sharing the wealth. Furthermore, if there is even a chance that they may be carrying around a higher viral load – that must be investigated fully. It would in normal times completely change the operating procedure. But again – we are not even counting breakthroughs right now.

    In my local area this week, we had a report from the Health Department head about our case numbers. I was on tele because I am in quarantine. It became immediately apparent that they have two books – one with the breakthroughs and one without – Let’s just say they are only sharing one to the public – and I think you know which one. The numbers with the breakthrough cases were very similar to this paper. The media is not really running this down.

     
    1. Dean

      I agree with everything in your original comment except the word “significantly.”

      The Nature paper and you may both be correct. You are probably seeing the delta variant while the Nature data were collected in February 2021.

      I agree that health departments and especially CDC should be monitoring and reporting viral loads for all cases.

      Thank you for all the information you provide.

       
      1. IM Doc

        I would like to share with you that I used your comments today when I was debriefing the two medical students here with me this month for their rural rotation.

        A few things that people may not know – July 1 is the first day of the medical year. These kids are fresh right out of their non-clinical 1st two years and this is their very first rotation. To have their very first clinical experiences be in the middle of the mess we find ourselves in at our hospital – and on top of that having their attending succumb to the contagion and have to be quarantined has been jarring for them to say the least. This is about as “real” as real gets. We did our debriefing today on the computer. I will be back in person early next week.

        These kids walked into this morning – 6 COVID patients who were admitted all still in the ER – because there was nowhere for the new admissions to go last night – we are already full. 3 vaccinated/3 unvaccinated. None of these people are horribly sick. But these students are literally scared to death. What a way to start your career. I may be one of the better equipped to guide them through this – because when it was my first day 30 years ago – the AIDS patients were all over the ER.

        I showed these kids this thread this AM. And told them both that it is very very important to use correct and measured language when we are discussing issues with patients and non-medical folks. Little abbreviations and things we say to one another all the time are often not really going to do the job when discussing with the public. Always always remember that. And this is why I so appreciate this site. It seems like everywhere else is an ad hominem hatchet fest in the comments section – and this is such a relief.

        But I ended our talk today with something which I feel is just as important. This is not looking good at all. We may be right back where we were last fall and winter very soon. I urged them both to learn the basic mechanics of medical statistics and medical reasoning. I am afraid we are soon going to be entering territory in the next few weeks when luxuries like RCT and p- and z- scores are not going to be our lot. That is why my teachers trained my brain to look and evaluate things on the fly – ALL kinds of medical research- and to be able to wield it appropriately in any situation – I am going to endeavor to put these kids through the wringer in that regard the next 6 weeks.

        The others I am really more concerned about are the nurses, RTs CNAs front desk people, and the housekeepers. This is WWAAYY more stressful on them than any physician. We should all be keeping these people in our thoughts and prayers the next few weeks. I am already seeing severe strain develop in many of them here around me.

    1. IM Doc

      The article you have given is also from March. So the datasets were likely done in DEC thru possibly JAN They way things are mutating and changing on the ground – and the way we have demonstrated now that the vaccine efficacy markedly decreases in months – I am not sure those conclusions apply. If I am reading it correctly – the patients in that trial had been fully vaccinated within about 40 days. That time window is not valid in our current situation when the vaccinated patients that seem to be the sickest were vaccinated now months ago. Many other things may be going on.

      This CDC paper – if I am reading it correctly – all the data was collected within just a few months of vaccination as well – making it even more critical that we study this issue.

      I do not know – I will ask friends of mine who are experts. But I am hesitant to put much timber into anything that was done in the early part of the vaccination program. Too much has changed.

       
  1. antidlc

    “I have repeatedly stated that I am seeing much much more vaccinated positives than one would ever have expected. As I have stated, they seem to be much sicker (though not critically so)…”

    Could you please clarify? “They seem to be much sicker”.

    “Much sicker” than what? The unvaccinated positives?

     
    1. IM Doc

      For several weeks – dating back to mid May – I was seeing groups of fully vaccinated patients becoming positive – but asymptomatic. Most of these situations arose because one member of the family or group was found to be positive because of foreign travel – or having surgery or whatever.

      As this became more and more common – I began to be very concerned about what the future may hold. And the Health Department and CDC were just ambivalent.

      The guidance of the local health department was to ignore this – “they are vaccinated – there is no way they can spread, etc.”. Just as the CDC guidance was telling them to do. I do not much like to have armed nuclear warheads sitting around, and I am very persistent – so I ordered the contact tracing on my own – every close family member or close contact was checked. And to my absolute horror – large clusters of them were positive. But at that time, they were asymptomatic- almost every single one. I have been dutifully reporting these numbers to Yves and Lambert for weeks.

      Then about a month ago – something changed. People were then starting to become ill – and come to clinical attention that way. There were no longer just the asymptomatic patients. And again – on my own – ordered the contact tracing – and found the same thing. Multiple vaccinated family members positive. Multiple bridge group members positive. Multiple church members positive, etc etc. And lately – socials around the July 4th weekend were also clustered. At that point in time – there was no one sick enough to be in the hospital. But the vaccinated positives were clearly more ill than the unvaccinated positives. Heavier coughs, more SOB, more febrile. This included even the younger ones among them. But again – no one sick enough to be hospitalized.

      And then – this week – we have had a seismic shift. We have admitted multiple very ill vaccinated patients – two of which were critically ill. At the same time – we are admitting unvaccinated patients as well. Some of them too are now very ill. We have had deaths this week – all of those patients were unvaccinated. But I am not holding my breath – we now have two critically ill vaccinated patients that I am not sure are going to make it. I do not have the best handle on these situations this week because I am in quarantine. But right at this minute – we have more COVID patients in the hospital since January – and it is right at 50/50 vaccinated/unvaccinated – and I would say they are equally ill.

      It has been fascinating to watch this very orderly step up in severity over time. And then this week the bottom dropped out. And I live in a very vaccinated county – the paper reported this AM a 72% vaccination rate. The only stragglers were the 12-18 group which is below 50. The “herd immunity” concept is certainly not working here. And the local medical folks are just horrified that this is getting this bad after working so hard for this really good vaccination rate. It is reminding me greatly of the ramp up we had last summer – it is almost the same in every way – except it got much worse much quicker. I am hoping it will burn out – but not looking like that so far.

      I will share something else. I have a very small limited patient size – I am in a small town. But I am very attentive to media reports of numbers from other locations. Big cities and big sample sizes give perspective. When I heard last weekend that there were ZERO vaccinated patients in the hospitals in LA – I grew immediately concerned – because that was not our experience at all – It is basically a WHAT HAVE WE DONE WRONG MOMENT….So I called three of my old students who are now on the front lines in the LA area – to the one – the response was “I have not a clue what they are talking about – that is just not true…”. Among the three of them the averages they were seeing were about 75% – 85% unvaccinated in the hospital – and all had had very ill vaccinated patients. I did not feel so bad then. But My God, the media cannot be trusted with a single god-damn thing. I have never seen such a bunch of liars in my lifetime. It is a real tragedy – when we need them the most they are doing propaganda. And do not even get me started on the Health Dept people who are misleading the population like this.

Ahimsa

Wishing IM Doc a speedy recovery and many thanks for the updates.

Reports 72% vax coverage in local area and also a
50:50 ratio of vaxxed to non-vaxxed in hospitalised patients.

Let’s do the math! We would really need the numbers of positive tests in both vaxxed (calling CDC???) and non-vaxxed populations to calculate and compare the hospitalisation rates for both groups in order to then calculate the vax efficacy. Of course the vaxxed population skews older and/or has more comorbidities and/or is possibly taking more risks since vaccination, so it’s not quite so simple, but…
IF we assumed equal rates of infection in both populations (i.e. 28:72)
(a big assumption meaning vax efficacy against infection is null)
Then efficacy against hospitalisation is 61%

IM Doc’s cases:
X = Vaxxed hospitalised = NON-vaxxed hospitalised patients
Vaxxed hospitalisation rate = X/72
NON-Vaxxed hospitalisation rate = X/28

=> Risk Ratio = X/72 ÷ X/28 => 28/72 = ~0.39
=> Vaccine Efficacy = (1 – Risk Ratio) = 61%

LA Story:
Colleagues seeing 75%-85% non-vaxxed in hospital.
LA reports 70% vaccination for >16 yrs old.
Again assuming equal infection rates (i.e. 30:70 non-vaxxed:vaxxed)
Then 80:20 hospitalised patients suggests
~89% Vax Efficacy against hospitalisation, i.e. 1- (20/70 ÷ 80/30)

As you can see from these simple calculations, it is really important to know the vaccination rates AND the rates of infection, otherwise there is no way to make any sense of the no’s in hospital!

Note: to produce the (acceptable?) efficacy rates above, I had to assume 0% efficacy against infection which would make a mockery of the idea of vaccination passports and dropping of masks.
Finally, if the rates of infection are greater in non-vaxxed (presumably so?) then these efficacies really start dropping off.

==

PLEASE REPLY if you see an error!

 
  1. IM Doc

    You are very correct on how you did the numbers.

    And this type of wide variation is to be expected in the real world – that is the way it goes. And another very severe confounding issue is the absolute gigantic chasm of numbers between these two data sets. I am in a very small area with a very small N. LA is gigantic. So theoretically, the LA numbers would have a much higher statistical power. However, there are an infinite number of confounding variables that must be taken into account in a side to side comparison. I have chills when I hear the media making all these god-like pronouncements about this place or the other. It is just very difficult to compare apples to oranges and they really should not be making blanket statements about every locality based on numbers coming from just one. This habit has been yet another bad side effect of our sterilization of the local health departments and the dependence on one centralized center.

    The other issue left off your calculations is the number of people who are very ill and suffering at home. This is not a small number. I know this for a fact because there are about 10 patients on our call list that are COVID positive and very sick and we call them twice daily. They refuse to be in the hospital, largely for financial reasons. That is almost certainly an issue in LA as well.

    Another possible confounding issue is if there is a much larger group of younger people who are not nearly as likely to be admitted whether vaccinated or not in either LA or here. The demographics and the attitudes of different age groups vary widely between different parts of the country.

    The vaccine efficacy of 61% in my area is much closer to what is being experienced in Israel right now for what it is worth.

    And thank you for the efforts to do these numbers – you should be a medical student.

    One other little pearl to think about. ANYTIME anyone in medicine reports a 100% rate of anything – assume they are lying until proven otherwise. I would assume that to be the case in every field. There is no such thing as perfection.

    When the LA report came out last week that their hospital admissions were 399 and all 399 were unvaccinated, I knew right off the bat that they were lying. That just does not happen in medicine. These people need to find better liars. For instance, if they had said 356 were unvaccinated, which is still a respectable number, I would not have raised an eyebrow. But they went for the gold, and earned hundreds of hilarious comments in my doctor’s forum that evening. The average physician in America who is hip deep into these tragedies is really getting tired of all the shenanigans.

IM Doc

Anyone who states with a straight face that “the safety data is in” on these vaccines should be immediately disregarded and laughed out of the room.

I have had more patients with DVT and PE in the past 8 months than I have had combined for the past 9 years.
I keep very detailed records of diagnoses on computer databases for just such occasions.

Take one guess that fits together with all but one of the patients in the past 8 months.

It will only be the passing of some serious time and the evaluation of morbidity and mortality tables before we know the safety of these vaccines.

I could spend all day reciting the list of medications the FDA has approved and then years later has to pull because these facts become obvious. The difference now is the facts are actually obvious now to anyone with eyes to see.


IM Doc

His hypothesis about the delta variant causing the higher loads may be correct.

There is also another hypothesis now out there gaining some signal every day. Many people I know with expertise discussing it. And that is the increasing evidence that viral loads are much higher in the vaccinated. Since we have so many vaccinated now, it would make sense that the overall viral loads are higher. This elevation may have nothing to do with “delta”.

Again, just another hypothesis out there looking for evidence.

Funny how a board member of Pfizer neglected to mention that alternate hypothesis.

Why he continues to be carted out on national television in his obviously conflicted status is all the proof I need that our media is corrupt to the core. How much did Big Pharma pay CBS in ad revenue last year?


IM Doc

An update today.

I came back today for my first day of work. I am officially present and not on Zoom.

There were 8 COVID patients in the hospital. 3 vaccinated/5 unvaccinated.

I have discharged all but 1. The crush we had last week is now in the rear view mirror. There are no new people in the ER right now. I have stated this for many months, this virus behaves in a very very strange way. I have made this comment before and I will make it again – this type of behavior is just not the usual situation in the middle of any kind of epidemic. The virus is trying to give us clues – are we smart enough to figure this out?

The outpatient patients continue to roll in. Right now it is about 70%vaccinated/30%unvaccinated. No one on the horizon right now needs to be in the hospital.

Overall – good news right now. We are all keeping our fingers crossed in our community. No one is taking their eye off the ball. I truly feel a lot of our seeming improvement here is due to the efforts of the local church officials stepping in and making sure we are doing everything to keep our vulnerable at home. And the civic clubs are helping this out a lot as well. Everyone is stepping up to the plate.

And guess what? We have all decided together this is a community problem. There are GOP and there are Dems doing this altogether. We are ignoring all the crazy messaging coming from the media. I could not be more proud of these people.

Again – good positive developments – we hope it stays that way.


Pat

So I have started what may be a long journey to find a physician now that I have Medicare. With the exception of an emergency room visit I have not seen a doctor in almost a decade. My previous physician, along with other colleagues from an innovative service once offered through Beth Israel belongs to a newer practice with a $50/month fee. I think it could be considered a PMC upper middle class concierge service. I have now stumbled across a different version of that, one that has gone public on Nasdaq. They only charge $199/year, but there is no indication of that on the listings of their physicians on Medicare.gov. But the Carlyle Group liked them well enough to invest over two years ago. Dropping a Medium column on them here, but what may be of the most interest is the comment from two weeks ago.
Medium on One Medical

This wiped out more than a few on the list I made to call to see about an appointment. Like I said it may take awhile. Sigh.

 
  1. Pat

    Correction. My former doctor’s subscription was $50/month last I checked it is now $100 for the first family member with a sliding scale for the rest of the family. All medical care is on top of that. I think they are full on concierge care for the wealthy.

     
  2. IM Doc

    I find the whole concierge model to be very troubling.

    These physicians often have panels of patients that number only in the 100-200 range. The problem is that 10-15 years ago, the residency slots were numbered and designed for the calculated population that would need them. The average internist has 1500 – 2000 patients in their panel. When these physicians switch to this model, the other 1300 patients that do not stay with them get tossed to the wind. When 20-30 of the internists in a community do this, the chaos is overwhelming. This is happening all over our big cities right now. This is part of the reason why it is so very difficult for Medicare patients to find a PCP.

    I get very discouraged at times with the behavior of my colleagues. It is bad enough to do this to all those people, but then we start in with segregated waiting rooms, and “medical spas” and do not get me started.

     

re: “Spare Us Your Covid Hypocrisy, Republicans” [Joan Walsh, The Nation]. “Republican Alabama Governor Kay Ivey got a lot of attention last week when she urged her constituents to get vaccinated as a new wave of Covid cases crowded hospitals and ICUs…. Ivey herself is partly to blame, for waiting so long to make a vaccine pitch…” • Well, it’s Joan Walsh, so we expect this:

 

 

IM Doc

About the Joan Walsh/Salon sequence above in the links – about Kay Ivey not being gung-ho about the vaccine.

As usual, these media types never surprise me any more – what a liar!

I am getting very tired of the whole blame the unvaccinated trope. Maybe it is me being a physician for 30 years – having been part of numerous epidemics of the flu which were pretty bad in their own right – and having absolutely no one say a word about anyone’s vaccine status. My job is to take care of people where they are – it is not to judge them when they are ill. The media is doing the devil’s work for sure. Psst – guys – it is not working. I am on the front lines – believe me – you are making things much much worse. It is almost like you want a civil war.

An update for today – I have had a new superspreader event that I am dealing with all morning. So far no one in the hospital – but we are getting close on two different patients. This particular time was a planned event. There were 20 invitees – and part of the condition of coming to the event was all had to be vaccinated. So far we have 12 positives for sure – and 3 more who are sick and likely positive. All fully vaccinated. Again – no one in the hospital. The sick include many 20somethings breakthroughs. Interestingly, many of these people were just vaccinated in the past month in response to being invited to this event. So at least in their bodies, the vaccine has not “had time to wear off” – but positive they are. We even have managed to infect two of the hired staff – both vaccinated. And that was it. There were no others involved. No unvaccinated deplorable to blame. Gee whiz – this virus just does not take the time to read the Salon.com narratives. Multiple others in contact with them are now being tested. I have not had time to deal with the health department yet, but almost assuredly, none of these people will be counted – they are not hospitalized nor are they health care workers.

We still have just the 1 patient in the hospital who is doing better – and there are no new ones in the ER right now. Still pretty quiet.

In my old urban core hospital before I moved to this area, the unvaccinated are about 75% of the admissions. The other vaccinated 25% are mostly diabetic, obese or immunocompromised – mostly elderly. Basically, the same crowd that fell victim last year.
This is the same city whose reddit and twitter feeds are playing one video after another for the past month of multiple gigantic night clubs of all ethnic backgrounds with thousands of people bumping and grinding with no mask in sight. And yet Joan Walsh has the gall to just blame “the unvaccinated” for this situation. There really is no shame – nor is there any medical truths in these proclamations. There are consequences when you put all your eggs in just one basket when dealing with any epidemic. We have NEVER – NOT ONE TIME – deployed this public health strategy in my lifetime.

I am pretty much telling all my patients right now on every visit – It is clear that these vaccines offer you no immunity from getting COVID. It is literally a flip of the coin. They do seem to at this point make the symptoms less. That is all I am willing to tell them – because I am now reporting truths that I am seeing with my own eyes. Long ago I realized that telling even white lies to patients is never a good strategy. So I do not.

For those who are at special risk – the elderly, the obese, diabetics, or immunocompromised – all visits are on tele – and I am encouraging them strongly not to leave the house.

I still strongly feel that high risk patients should be vaccinated – and I go through this multiple times daily.

For everyone else – out in the sun as much as possible, exercise, lose weight, vitamin D, decrease stress, sleep well, and hug your kids and your spouse as much as you can. Do not , like Joan Walsh and many others like her, be the source of contention and strife.

Sorry about the rant – it gets harder and harder to stomach the lies.

Take care and God Bless.

 
  1. IM Doc

    In my last paragraph – Should have added – For everyone else – vaccination is certainly OK – I am never going to discourage it. But if you do not – get out in the sun, exercise, etc etc.

    This is a decision we are all going to have to make. And I am afraid for all the Joan Walsh types out there that celebrating deaths of unvaccinated patients like I have see in the media repeatedly this past few weeks is unbecoming of a moral person. It is literally ghoulish. And is making things much much worse for those of us trying to do the right things on the front line.

  1. John

    I had the one shot J&J vaccine because that is what was on offer when I got an appointment in early March when appointments were hard to come by. The J&J vaccine is not mRNA, but the older vaccine making method. All the commentary I see and read refers to the mRNA vaccines. Are there breakthroughs with J&J? Shall I need a booster shot? I am way over 65 and in generally good health. I walk, garden, take vitamin D, hug the kids and grand kids, and am a fan of IM Doc’s commentary. I would really like to hear from the knowledgeable about the prospects for those of us vaccinated with the J&J jab.

     
    1. IM Doc

      There are far far fewer people vaccinated with J&J, so with most of the people we are dealing with the other two. But yes indeed, breakthroughs have occurred with J&J that I know of. I just could not even begin to comment on the numbers.

      At this point, I just view people as vaccinated fully, vaccinated partially, or unvaccinated.

  1. IM Doc

    Dr. Walensky’s assertion today was that the virus now has the capability of having as much viral load in the vaccinated as the unvaccinated. She used the word “rare” – but they have used that word in other things this past 18 months that did not end up to be so “rare”. Furthermore, I have heard from other trusted colleagues that this issue is indeed a problem – and the word “rare” never came up in their discussions.

    As I have reported earlier, there has been signal in a few case studies released over the past week that this may be the case – and that indeed the viral load may actually be WORSE in the vaccinated. I am talking about SIGNAL in studies, and not statistical significance because the case numbers in these series is so low. But the patterns are defintely there. And I have seen this same pattern in my very own patients when I have their cT numbers before my eyes in the past few weeks. My own vaccinated self had a cT of 18 when I was COVID positive last week. That is a fairly low cT indicating a fairly large viral load.

    If this is indeed the case, and when that realization really hits the American public, my prediction is there will be hell to pay. We do not know what “scared and angry” has the potential to be.

    Just think about it – the science is giving us at least some signal that the unvaccinated have just as much to fear from the vaccinated as what the media is trumpeting right now about the unvaccinated. Trust me, there is a reason this mask mandate issue is at the forefront again, and it is not just the case numbers.

    This is why I have been urging people to knock it off with all the unvaccinated hatred. That ire may end up being misplaced. We are all in this together. This is completely unbecoming of our country.

    Think even a bit further down the road. We have now vaccinated most of our entire health care system. These workers are in very very close contact with all kinds of patients daily. Masks are better, but certainly not perfect with aerosolized viruses. If this all holds up to be true, these health care workers may be spewing forth all kinds of virus loads in the hospital.

    I do not know about you, but this sounds like a rather potentially explosive situation. I certainly hope this is not the case – but facts must be faced head-on. The hateful rhetoric coming from our media, our politicians, and many of our medical people needs to stop right now. They are just fueling the fire. I truly feel that some of them are doing all they can to start a civil war. I just can no longer fathom what is happening in this country.

     
    1. Yves Smith

      To be clear, another reader interpreted the same study differently. I am a little nervous about reaching conclusions based on one paper with a very small sample that didn’t point strongly either way. As reader Dean noted:

      The article discusses cT values;

      “CT values were not different according to the immune status: median (interquartile range [IQR] of Ct (RdRp1) = 29 (25-35) for non-immune (n = 3),
      21.5 (18-25) for vaccinated 1 dose (n=6) and 23 [21-27] for vaccinated 2 doses (n = 13), p = 0.15 with median test. For RdRp1: median [IQR] = 28 [25-33] for non-immune (n = 3), 20 [20-23] for vaccinated 1 dose (n = 5) and 23 (21-26) for vaccinated 2 doses (n = 13), p = 0.09 with median test. For N gene: median (IQR) = 32 (30-34) for non-immune (n = 2), 26 (25-28) for vaccinated 1 dose (n = 5), and 27 (26-31) for vaccinated 2 doses (n = 14), p = 0.30 with median test”

      The P values do not show a significant difference. One problem is n is so small it is hard to detect a difference if it exists.

      What I do get is you’ve seen enough cases of high viral loads in the vaccinated in your own hospital to question the party line.

      GM also wondered via e-mail if the causality went the other way:

      Regarding the C_t values — this might be a case of a an inverse causal relationship combined with selection bias.

      For those vaccinated people to end up in the hospital, the infection has to have overwhelmed the antibodies that they have.

      So it might be that it is not the case that vaccinated people have higher viral loads, but that it takes a higher viral load to land a vaccinated person in the hospital than an unvaccinated.

      Obviously, that’s a speculation, but it’s the only way I can see to make sense of that observation (which others have made too). Because prior the vaccinated starting to fill in the hospitals, they had higher C_t values

      … in effect, some vaccinated were getting themselves in high-contagion settings. You as an MD treating sick patients would be exposed to more virus than the average person. Vaccinated people going to crowded bars (where people speak loudly to be heard) could get themselves in a similar position. The CDC basically told vaccinated people to go do stupid stuff en masse.

       
      1. IM Doc

        Yes – I agree with all you said. The one thing I would point out about the above observation as related to the case study in French Guiana miners – is none of those patients were sick enough to be in the hospital and the pattern still held.

        I will repeat what I have said before. This situation is getting serious. We may not have the luxury for perfect studies. We certainly did not in the AIDS crisis. I know for sure that well-qualified people are looking into this very situation.

        Whatever happens, we must somehow find it in ourselves to stop the blame cannons and start working together as one. Or this is going to get really ugly really quickly.

The rest of July will be in the next post as I'll be including the full text of NC's next article.

IM Doc 22

Nov. 11th, 2021 09:07 pm
temporaryreality: (Default)
 Eustachedesaintpierre

Interesting & positive trial results for Covid involving Budesonide, which came about due to the authors noticing while treating Covid patients that unexpectantly people who should be vulnerable due to already having a respiratory disease were underrepresented as patients.

This led to them wondering whether it could be something to do with the widespread us of Glucocorticoid / Steroid inhalers, leading them to doing a study.

.https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04416399

& drbeen in a short video for him walks through it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3OVnN_NxO8&t=2s

Good news for asthmatics anyhow.

 
  1. IM Doc

    The same thing happened earlier with fluvoxamine an anti depressant.

    This drug came on the radar because it is widely used for antidepressant in institutionalized patients.

    In multiple locations last year outside the USA most notably France, it was noted that when the Covid surge hit, the docs and staff all got sick. The patients not so much.

    We seem to have forgotten our medical history as a profession during this entire madness. These kinds of accidental observations are to be found everywhere you look in the medical history literature. The fact that we are suppressing this kind of thing is a complete tragedy. It will come with a big payment due soon enough.

NC has a longer post that I'm only giving a snippet of here that quotes IM Doc, click on the title to go to it if you want the whole thing.

How Policies Affect Beliefs and Preferences: The Example of Covid-19 Vaccination Willingness

Posted on July 3, 2021 by 

Yves here. IM Doc, whose father was a public health official, anticipated the findings of this study which found that faith in institutions is essential to implementing public policies. As he wrote in April:

As a young child, I saw my father [a public health officer] struggle through the Swine Flu of 1976 and the vaccine debacle that accompanied that era.

As I grew older, and especially once I entered medicine, he had several heart-to-heart talks with me about a career in Medicine and by extension public health. I can summarize what he told me in two large thrusts. 1) Integrity, truth, and honesty is EVERYTHING in public pealth. Once squandered, it will never return. 2) Public health is 10% science and 90% psychology. Do not ever forget that. You will get nowhere by screaming SCIENCE SCIENCE SCIENCE and you will certainly get nowhere by flashing credentials. And you must have an acute awareness of panic, fear and anxiety. They change everything and your response must always take that into account.

The US has shown a steady decline in public confidence in official institutions. A recently-published study by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford found that Americans have the lowest trust in media of adults in 46 countries. The press has been a major channel for messaging about the desirability of getting vaccinated and Covid generally.

And if you have been paying attention at all, the official responses to Covid have been so obviously politicized as to undermine confidence. The flip flop on masks. The flip flop (and maybe flop back) on the lab leak theory). The failure to acknowledge asymptomatic transmission (yet the full court press to vaccinate teens and children would seem to be all about that). CDC chief Rochelle Wallesnky (along with some public service ads) falsely saying the Covid vaccines prevent getting infected. The failure to acknowledge aerosol transmission, and even now, muddled discussions on official sites. The “mission accomplished” approach, over the objections of the national and largest California nurses’ unions. Readers no doubt can add to this list.

In other words, the US has aggressively pre-positioned itself to have difficulty in getting compliance if its wager on the vaccines doesn’t work out as planned and it has to exhort the public to engage in non-pharmaceutical interventions again, like masking up and staying largely at home.

-------

IM Doc's comment (below) references one of these articles:

Ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trial (accepted manuscript) Clinical Infectious Diseases. A review of RCT literature. From the Abstract: “Published and preprint randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing IVM effects on COVID-19 adult patients were searched until March 22, 2021 in five engines…. In comparison to SOC or placebo, IVM did not reduce all-cause mortality, length of stay or viral clearance in RCTs in COVID-19 patients with mostly mild disease. IVM did not have an effect on AEs or severe AEs. IVM is not a viable option to treat COVID-19 patients.”

The Ivermectin Advocates’ War Has Just Begun Vice






IM Doc

About the Ivermectin paper in the above links ——

I never in a million years imagined myself being a conduit for medical arguments to a wider national audience – but here we are.

I have done everything I can this past year to bring to the owners and commenters of this blog exactly what is happening on the ground and what is happening in my area of academic medicine. It is “on the ground” observation – sometimes very correct – and sometimes very wrong. I hope everyone understands where I am coming from.

I attend multiple conferences via Zoom every week tapping into my old colleagues at one of the premier medicine departments in this country. Yesterday was no different – and this Clinical Infectious Disease meta-analysis by Roman et al was the main topic. Last week’s main topic was yet another meta-analysis of the Ivermectin RCT trials out of the UK by an epidemiologist named Tess Laurie. It had been published in the Journal of Applied Therapeutics.

For those of us in medicine, this is all old hat. For everyone else it is like one blockbuster after the other coming out. I have been doing this for 30 years – I know instantly how to separate the wheat from the chaff – and so do honest brokers in medicine if the take the time to do so.

You would be totally excused if you as a layman said – Wow – the paper in Clinical Infectious Disease ( a much more prestigious journal) is obviously the better paper – so Ivermectin is obviously not going to work.

And you would be wrong.

This episode is an example of a very common tactic that Big Pharma has been employing to bamboozle physicians for a very long time. It often detonates in their face a decade later – but who cares at that point – the money is in the bank. The difference now – is Big Pharma has captured our CDC and FDA – and most importantly in this example our medical organizations – like the Infectious Disease Society of America who publish the landmark journals like Clinical Infectious Disease. They are a fully owned subsidiary of Big Pharma – so Big Pharma is now playing this game for the world to see, not just physicians.

This paper is a standard issue disinformation tactic employed time and time again by Big Pharma. It is such an incredible example – I will be using it for my students from now on.

What am I saying ??? – CID almost assuredly had all of these manuscripts for months – and they chose the one (Big Pharma chose the one) that was the most negative about ivermectin. These studies were all meta-analysis of the available data – and the only possible thing that could be different was the methodology of the studies. All the RCT baseline data is exactly the same – but yet the conclusions were radically different.

So, yesterday, at the presentation, the presenter – and epidemiologist – stood up – and STARTED HIS TALK with this paraphrase – (and this is a very unusual way to start a medical talk) “Interesting study – but there are some caveats – The relative risk confidence in this analysis has been manipulated above 1 – that may negate the whole study, some of the active arms have been converted to placebos – that too may decrease confidence” and on and on and on. Multiple caveats before he even got to the meat – a hallmark of a sloppy study.

I do not have a chapter in medical statistics to write out what these above things and many others mean. But this is a poorly done study. There is an online journal club where other problems are being identified – https://pubpeer.com/publications/955418F3D4D39742CFFA8C1B023AA3

I have never seen Big Pharma make their selection with such an obviously flawed study – they really are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Dr. Tess Laurie – whose study came out last week – is an acknowledged world wide guru of medical epidemiology – I have followed her team’s work for years – and her results are much more favorable – I am far more willing to follow her lead rather than Dr. Roman – someone I have never heard of before.

Similar studies were deployed and written by Big Pharma shills for Celebrex/Vioxx, and opioids – and we all know how that ended.

In medicine, we have bad studies all the time. We all instantly recognized this yesterday – and all realize the truth about this drug yet to be known. If anything, this sloppy effort has revealed an even sloppier effort to discredit Ivermectin. That did not go well yesterday at the conference. There may be enough of us who have been deceived for decades ready to stand up and call bull shit on the whole thing.

But doctors are no longer the audience. Papers like this are broadcast to the heavens for the public to consume – they are doing everything they can to imprint on the public – IVERMECTIN BAD.

As I have said so many many times, medicine at this level – should not be litigated in the media – it takes years of study to understand this stuff – and can be invisibly manipulated at the drop of a hat.

Will be very interested to hear the comments of NC commenters – the most grounded in reality group in the world.
 

IM Doc

I somehow managed to not put the last paragraph in my comment – here it is –

Someday in the future – when this is all behind us, and this crisis is over, we are going to hopefully have time to reflect on what has happened to our health care system. That is of course assuming that medicine/public health even survives. These issues of credibility and non-trust have been building for years. Physicians repeatedly and ever more commonly rotating between Big Pharma and our academic institutions. Rotating between corporate boards in Big Pharma and the highest levels of regulatory oversight in the FDA, NIH, and CDC. The entire system is now corrupt to the very core. At a time when we needed our public health systems the most, they have been entirely corrupted and/or defunded. And this is the result we have. What do I and thousands of on the ground physicians want with regard to Ivermectin? – We want honest studies done by honest brokers. That is not much of an ask – but it appears to be entirely impossible in our current situation. Thus, the reliance on foreigners, where this kind of corruption is not so endemic. I hope that it becomes crystal clear as we debrief from this nightmare that our public institutions like the NIH should be playing a vital role in this going forward. As was noted by the medical ethicists when I was a young doc, allowing the NIH and big universities to have patents and make money from drugs would be our undoing. And here we are. For example, under no circumstances is Fauci going to allow the NIH or any other federal agency to study things like Ivermectin. The lucre is rolling in from Moderna to which they own the patents and get royalties. That list of issues vis a vis our public health institutions would fill a phone book.

This must stop. I just do not know if we have the will or the heart to do so. It seems that my profession is doing everything possible to hit the brick wall, and it is getting closer as every day goes by.


Lou Anton

One of the nice things about 91-DIVOC is that it’s a UofI project. And they do infections rates within Illinois. Agree it’s worrisome, and while things are moving in the wrong direction everywhere, it’s more of a problem downstate (where you have plenty of people who visit Branson and the Ozarks): link here.

 
  1. IM Doc

    You should talk to some of my friends in Chicago if you think this is just a down state issue.

    Literally shitting bricks right now.

    This is an American issue. I have just as many liberal patients balking at the vaccine as I do GOP folks. Continuing to make this political is not in the best interest of the country. I am becoming increasingly pissed at our media for engaging in this bullshit.

    If Illinois is like my state the unvaccinated numbers look bad because all kinds of barriers are up to not even bother to test the vaccinated. It is impossible to make any kind of judgment rationally when the numbers are being handled like this.

    Until we all learn that lesson, we are in for some hard times.

    Just my two cents.

     

I'm not sure what link IM Doc refers to here

IM Doc

Too good to be true….. That is how Dr. Eric Topol in the above link described the therapies being described in that paper.

This is from the same man and the same medical establishment who have been repeatedly touting the 95% relative risk reduction from the Pfizer vaccine with COVID. Misrepresenting just like Big Pharma has for ages what a relative risk reduction actually means – and thereby misleading the American people about a very critical thing at a critical time. It has been SOP for Big Pharma – but when used in the way it has been, it has been an absolute disgrace.

As I have been saying from the start, that number was way too good to be true. I believe we are starting to see right now what I was talking about. I am not just pulling that out of thin air. This has been discussed widely among physicians I know for months – many if not the vast majority are just far too concerned/scared to say anything in public.

That 95% number was exactly what tipped me off back in December that the promised vaccine efficacy was TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE. PROBLEMS AHEAD. BE ON FULL RED ALERT.

I am hoping beyond hope – and continue to do so – that this is all going to work out OK. I hope so badly that I am so so wrong. But there are multiple trip wires planted by my old professors that have been going off one by one this whole past 6 months.

I am hoping and praying that when this is all said and done and the dust has settled, medicine takes a deep long search into its soul. Our whole culture needs to do the same. There simply has been way way too much deference to Big Pharma and to our authorities.
 

ChrisPacific

He submitted the full results to The New England Journal of Medicine in the spring but says the paper was rejected despite what he calls “extremely constructive” reviews. When Cadegiani asked for the reason, Eric Rubin, the journal’s editor-in-chief, responded in an email, “It’s simple—the results are unexpectedly good. Given how good they are, the reviewers felt the data needed a primary review,” meaning they needed to see not just the analysis, but also the original data. “We simply don’t have the capacity to do that,” Rubin wrote in his email, which Cadegiani shared with Science. The Lancet rejected the paper as well.

This set my BS detector to beeping frantically. It’s 600 patients, FFS. How much capacity do you need for that? Surely a result as potentially significant as this might be worth investing a little time? We’re going to pass up a potentially major breakthrough in mortality reduction because nobody at the NEJM could spare the time to review 600 data points?

I might possibly chalk this up to a miscommunication or stupidity if we hadn’t seen exactly the same thing happen with Ivermectin. As it is, I suspect foul play.

 
  1. IM Doc

    If you read my original post way back in December about the original paper regarding the Pfizer vaccine, there was a section of it talking about an interview with Dr. Rubin on the Boston public radio station.

    Dr. Rubin is actually on the FDA advisory committee for vaccine approval. He is one of 15. There are multiple of them that have obvious COI. I detailed my concern about him being on that committee.

    One thing that was mentioned IN HIS OWN VOICE during that interview was that the Moderna FDA meeting was coming right up the next day. He just outright admitted that he had actually not looked at the Moderna data at all – literally 1-2 days prior to the meeting. I am quite literally not making this up.

    So, we have the chief editor for the NEJM and one of the members of the FDA vaccine advisory committee admitting that he will be voting on something this consequential – and has not even bothered to look at the data.

    So, does it surprise me that the NEJM, its reviewers or its peer reviewers did not take time to look at the original primary data on this paper? – Not in the least. There is far more going on, in my opinion, than just getting it right on this one possibly very helpful therapy. Far more. I am not sure the corruption will ever be fully teased out.

    I want to make it clear – back in the days when I was a young doctor at a big academic center – the faculty members were constantly being tasked to do either primary data reviews or peer-reviews of things like this. MUCH MORE than 600 patients. This is really evidence of how far scientific standards have fallen.

Kris Alman

Then we get to find out on the fly how shot after shot after shot of playing with mRNA does to bodies?

Or more specifically what the manufactured spike protein does when it floods our bodies after repeated mRNA vaccines/boosters.

I am grateful I can remain a hermit, while others who have to interact with pesky humans who take great risks have no choice. On May 1st, I was ready to get the vaccine and read a couple of articles that led me to hit the pause button.

https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/spike-proteins-used-in-covid-19-vaccines-are-they-safe-e1592b6ba8d3
Spike protein and the brain
A study titled “The S1 protein of SARS-CoV-2 crosses the blood-brain barrier in mice” was published in Nature Neuroscience this month. Herein, researchers at the University of Washington inoculated a dose of S1 portion of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein — without the whole virion or genome — into the blood or nose of adult age mice.

With the advent of many Covid-19 vaccines in a short time, it’s expected that their long-term safety is questioned. All Covid-19 vaccines use the coronavirus spike protein to induce immunity in some way or another. But recent studies have found that coronavirus spike proteins alone — without the whole virion or genome — are sufficient to induce biological abnormalities in brain and blood vessel cells.

 
    1. Yves Smith

      Not true. See this from IM Doc:

      I invite you to the following document regarding the Moderna Vaccine – I have referenced this several times this year – because it is truly the crumbs we have been allowed to see about the most basic research on these vaccines –

      https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/assessment-report/covid-19-vaccine-moderna-epar-public-assessment-report_en.pdf

      It is a pdf – so I am not able to cut and paste – but go to page 47. This is the middle of the pharmacokinetic discussion in rats and non-human primates. The 6th paragraph down starts off “concentrations of mRNA 1647”. Read the paragraph and parts of the next page. In that, you will quickly realize that the mRNA particles were NOT limited to the deltoid. They made it to every single tissue in the bodies but the kidneys ( This is very common – the kidneys are flush flush flush and things do not hang out there long). They added the fact that the mRNA/lipoprotein particles made it to the brain – across the barrier – and they made it to the EYES and the TESTIS. These last two are included because they are among the most non-vascular tissues in the body. If they made it there – they made it everywhere. They were found in the circulating plasma hours later.

      One would assume these mRNA/lipoprotein particles were then left to be absorbed into those cells and do their thing in whatever tissue they happened to be transported to. THIS IS NOT JUST CONFINED TO THE DELTOID.

juliania

Pardon me if I am misstating, but didn’t IM Doc say that each round of vaccine, as in needing a third or booster shot, increases the stress for the one being vaccinated? He would have only been looking at two, but I seem to remember he said something like ‘time will tell’ and of course that also applied to any long term effects of the initial vaccinations as well.

 
  1. Cocomaan

    We don’t know how well mRNA vaccines work if you are jabbed with them over and over again. It’s hard to find anything studying it.

     
    1. IM Doc

      It’s hard to find anything studying this because there is none – we have not had enough time.

      But one of the problems with mRNA technology in these vaccines is indeed there will likely be a more vigorous immune response every time they are given making the number of reactions even higher – and this seems to be higher the younger you go.

      Studies are already underway on the mRNA booster – and unofficially via friends that are recruiting patients – things are not going so well at all. Many many more are getting very sick. Also, please note that in some of the arms of these protocols – there is a repeat of the two shot process – so you actually are giving people a 3rd shot followed a month later by a 4th. Unofficially, according to my reliable sources, the number of people turning down the 4th shot is astronomically elevated – the 3rd shot reaction is just that bad. All of these subjects have already had a 1st and 2nd shot earlier this year.

      Again – this is why something like an inhaled nasal vaccine may be a much better modality.

      This has all been so rushed – it is quite a quagmire right now.

  1. Olivier

    @IM Doc Am I correct that the response to these boosters, while stronger, would not necessarily provide better protection because of the phenomenon of antigenic memory?

    If so, booster efficiency over time (as in: with the booster index as x-axis) would exhibit a ratchet shape: starting from a high point, decreasing efficiency until a variant has sufficiently diverged from the original variant that the immune system labels it as new and mounts a fresh response against it. Rinse, repeat and you’ve got the ratchet. Am I onto something or just blabbing?

     
    1. IM Doc

      We simply do not have enough experience with these vaccines over a proper amount of time to know if this will happen or not.

      This same type of thing happens in the flu shots – they become less protective as we use them year after year – but then we have decades of known experience.

      You can assume this might happen – but that is the best I could say right now.

       
  2. GM

    There is an additional important question here — is this more vigorous, to the point of impossibility of administering further shots, reaction because of the S protein or because of the mRNA vaccine formulation?

    I don’t have an answer, but I do know that mRNA technology has huge potential for curing really serious things like cancer.

    And if it turns out that it is not the spike, but the RNA vaccine in general, that means we might have spent all those bullets that would have come very useful later in life for billions of people…

     
    1. IM Doc

      Yes –

      mRNA technology may be wonderful for things with a one or two hit regimen like cancer. Possibly other immune disorders.

      But vaccines where repeated injections will need to happen over time – is still an open question.

      And I agree – at this point it is very unclear/unknown if this is the lipoid envelope, the actual spike protein or the mRNA that is causing the problem –

      What I will say – when this vaccine approach was first coming to the fore last year, I had multiple conversations with research oncologists and rheumatologists who were very concerned that this very promising mRNA technology would be sullied in reputation if the mRNA vaccines for COVID somehow backfired or screwed up. It really is quite promising for many onc issues – but I see their point about the reputation. Only time will tell.

Skunk

“But the virus itself attacks the immune system in such a way that it leaves it in this weird inflamed state that can last a long time (there have been multiple papers showing strange T cell subpopulations developing and persisting after COVID). Which means that when the next infection comes, they will have an elevated risk of severe progression.”

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) only occurs with certain types of viruses, such as dengue fever. The very early attempts to create a vaccine for SARS using the actual virus led to ADE. SARS is not COVID-19, but there are similarities. We don’t seem to be seeing any clear signals of ADE so far, but I would not rule it out.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I was in a case conference on Zoom this AM. One of the presenters mentioned ADE and that yes, it is a real problem, and yes it is profoundly bad if it happens. We have real life experience with it in multiple failed animal vaccines – and unfortunately as you mentioned above in actual human vaccines.

    Because of the very real possibility this could happen with the COVID vaccine – coronaviruses are absolutely one of the virus families where ADE has occurred in animals – the health authorities have been on the lookout for any evidence of this since the very beginning. Absolutely no indication so far – and furthermore, if it was going to happen would have much likelier happened early on not now. The speaker went on to add, however, that if boosters are employed, the guard will have to go up again for ADE and even possibly more stringently.

    Also – another similar vaccine issue was discussed at length – which can best be condensed into the story of Marek’s Disease of Chickens. I am not going to type that all out – just go look it up. But that is also a possibility – though remote – and would likely be happening much further down the road.

    There was a time in my life that all this grim stuff was really purposely attempted to be kept within the realm of medical professionals. Uninformed speculation on these things can really lead to a lot of panic and fear – but alas we now live in a world where we just let it all hang out for all to enjoy. Somehow – I liked the previous world better.

NC linked to some county data that IM Doc then refers to here:

Lou Anton

Lambert, thanks for linking to the CDC community report. There’s underlying data there too. Love the county level detail here. With infection rates AND vaccination rates at the county level that this provides, we’ll be able to see if/when variants start breaking through.

Either that or they’ll stop sharing the dataset.

 
  1. IM Doc

    I have not had time to look at these county level graphs very well – I will do so a bit later – having a very busy day.

    I would urge one bit of caution in this whole experience. My own county has stopped reliably counting cases sometime in the middle of May. What is currently being reported in my county in this system has no chance of being correct. Why? I personally have had more COVID positive patients than is reported for the whole county.

    I know from colleagues all over the country that this is true. We are just no longer counting cases especially among the vaccinated. Where I live, they simply do not want to hear if a vaccinated patient is positive.

    Totally moronic – but it is what it is.

    At this point, the far more important numbers that have a chance of being reliable are the hospitalization numbers – and eventually God forbid – the death numbers. They simply cannot fudge those very well at all.

    My own practice from JUL 5th to JUL11th – yielded 19 positive and symptomatic COVID cases – 17 were vaccinated and 2 unvaccinated. All with one exception mild cases – and the really sick one is already getting better – but it was dicey for a day or two. To put the above numbers in perspective – I live in a county where 54% of age 18-70 are vaccinated – and 92% of those above 70 are vaccinated. Of the 17 positives I had last week – only 3 were in the above 70 group. The only sick one was the only one who had morbid pre-existing conditions, all else were healthy at baseline.

    I cannot say this too many times. These vaccines are clearly non-sterilizing. For whatever reason, our health agencies have decided not to follow the protocol in the event that happens.

    Until we have an idea where this going – I am reverting back to our prevaccine summer and fall recommendations – It is incumbent on everyone of us to reduce our risk factors – LOSE WEIGHT – GET YOUR BLOOD SUGAR DOWN – EXERCISE HARD – GET ON THE VIT D 2000 daily – GET OUT IN THE SUN – AND GET THE POVIDONE READY TO GO.
     

    1. QuicksilverMessenger

      Yves has been writing about this for a while as it looks to be a virucidal. I purchased some and have started the nasal regimen. There are a number of links and studies out there now. I think doing a search for ‘povidone iodine covid’ will get plenty of results

       
      1. Lambert Strether

        Apparently, we were onto Povidone on or before February 12, 2020.

        I cannot find our original Link, because even though Google has plenty of results for the year, it claims there are no results when I restrict by date. I am so sick of being unable to find material that I know exists. It’s like Google sets the Library of Alexandria on fire on a daily basis, making us more and more stupid.

        Bing, DuckDuckGo, and Qwant are equally sucky. And of course our own backstage search is borked. So I’d be patting NC on the back for being early and right, if only I could prove it.

        Thank you,

         
        1. Acacia

          Not to sound like too much of a nit pick, but that link goes to February 2021.

          It is indeed maddening that Google seems to have memory loss at the scale of multiple data centers (do they care?). I was able to do this search (note the date in the URL path):

          povidone site:www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020

          …to find the earliest mention of Povidone was a comment I posted on August 4th, 2020. Actually, there was one mention of Povidone on NC in 2019, but it concerned disinfecting cat scratches (with apologies to Ted Nugent ;).

           
    2. GroundZeroAndLovinIt

      Several studies have found OTC povidone-iodine gargle solutions can help prevent Covid. Here is a link to one study from U. Conn: Simple Oral Rinse Can Inactivate Covid-19. Based on someone here on NC’s recommendation, I recently purchased some Betadine (a brand of povidone-iodine solution) as a precaution (note: the manufacturer denies it has an effect against Covid). I feel better having it on hand, regardless.

       
    3. IM Doc

      You can call me old-fashioned.

      Povidone has been used since I was a young doctor – and by my forebears back to the day it was invented – as a sterilizer of the nasopharynx.
      Old fashioned – I know – but it really seems to work –
      It is very important that you get the right dilution. It is 30:1 of the surgical type.
      But you can easily make a batch – and then keep it on hand and gargle daily.
      There is ample evidence of its both bactericidal and viricidal properties.

      This link is probably one of the best done studies/reviews about this issue out there. And it also has the benefit of actual testing of SARS COV1 – a close relative of COVID. Povidone was instantly viricidal to SARS COV1 and multiple other viruses as you can see – as well as some really important bacterial pathogens.

       
      1. Utah

        If I have a history of graves disease that is currently in remission without any medicine usage, would iodine (providone) be contraindicated? I know you’re not my doctor, but my doctor thinks these vaccines are a cure all. I tend to avoid iodine, even iodized salt if I can help it.

         
        1. IM Doc

          In the past years, I have spoken to endocrinology specialists about this.

          The ingestion of large amounts of iodine can indeed make some hyperthyroid states worse. It would however require much much more of a dosage load then this would cause. You are not actually investing it. It is a gargle, swish and spit. Followed by the same swish and spit with a mouthful of water a few times.

          Fern, I would be very interested to see the paper you are referring to. I have never known this to harm a single patient in 30 years of flu seasons. I cannot fathom a 20% thyroid damage issue.

           
          1. Utah

            Thanks for that information, IM Doc. I’ve tried to be so careful because I know graves can come back, but it might be worth the risk to avoid covid. And it doesn’t sound like there is too much of a risk.

             
          2. Yves Smith

            When I made my 1% homebrew (stronger than the Japanese mouthwash) I did so after finding a study that said povidone gargles and nose sprays had been tested at strengths up to 2.5% for six months with no ill effect.

             
    4. Fern

      One published research letter said that 42% of covid patients treated with topical providine for 5 days had abnormal thyroid readings. Again, that’s only for 5 days. I’m wondering what the effect would be if it is applied daily over a long period of time?

      It’s not something I would feel comfortable exposing these delicate tissues to on a daily basis in the absence of thorough safety studies.

      https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2775984

       
      1. Yves Smith

        Topical povidone is not what we are talking about!!!! That would make you sick.

        Topical povidone is 10%.

        We are talking about diluting it to gargle strength, which is 0.5% to 1.0%, a 10X to 20X dilution.

         
    1. Amfortas the hippie

      gargle it when ya get home.
      use the mouthwash, not the stuff they use for surgical prep.
      it’s abundant everywhere i’ve looked for it, since i first read about it on NC, maybe a year or more ago….walgreens, cvs and our local pop and pop pharmacy.
      kills virii in and around your mouth/nose/throat, which is where it gains entry, and where it might be hanging out after an outing among the mundanes.

      two guys at the end of my road just got diagnosed with covid…one…88 years old, bowlegged and the spitting image of PI Parker…drives a cattle truck all over the country…and is doing just fine.
      the other, the nephew,…maybe late 50’s…works cattle in the pens at the feedlot…and is also a righty/maga guy…is doing poorly.
      neither have been vaxxed…the former, because he’s lived like a cowboy his whole life(“…his horse and his saddle are his only companions…”, etc), and it probably never occurred to him.
      the latter, because “It Ain’t Real!”
      former is one of the most genuinely decent people i’ve ever known…the latter, not so much,lol.

       
    2. jr

      https://www.instacart.com/landing?product_id=22026350&retailer_id=231&region_id=1826330878&mrid=402536653&utm_source=instacart_bing&utm_medium=sem_shopping&utm_campaign=ad_demand_shopping_food_ny_nyc_bing&utm_content=accountid-146005746_campaignid-367540450_adgroupid-1207264161960608_device-c&utm_term=matchtype-e_keyword-_targetid-pla-4579053615929051_locationid-&msclkid=2fb4410254361114b69b21ee8123a49c

      An NIH study I found which I cannot re-find recommended gargling at least 30 seconds for cleansing and a two hour window of protection.

  1. Mikel

    “My own practice from JUL 5th to JUL11th – yielded 19 positive and symptomatic COVID cases – 17 were vaccinated and 2 unvaccinated.”

    If you recall, which vaccines had they taken? And how long had it been since their last shot?

     
    1. IM Doc

      Around here, it has been 45/45 Pfizer and moderna, the other 10 are j and j. It is happening to all of them.

      The older patients are now out about 6 months. Most everyone who has been vaccinated was done with it in early April. Then the vaccination numbers fell off the cliff. So all these patients were theoretically fully vaccinated.

       
  2. Aumua

    My own practice from JUL 5th to JUL11th – yielded 19 positive and symptomatic COVID cases – 17 were vaccinated and 2 unvaccinated.

    I have a hard time rectifying this statement with (regular) headlines like this one from the LA times:

    “L.A. County sees new significant rise in COVID-19 cases, 99% involved the unvaccinated”

    I wonder how you might explain the apparent disconnect between your findings of ~90% vaccinated for covid positive cases and others’ apparently regular findings of 95% or greater unvaccinated for covid positive cases?

     
    1. Yves Smith

      Did you miss our posts and comments on the fact that the CDC is not counting Covid cases among the vaccinated unless they wind up in the hospital? And public health authorities are falling in with the CDC?

      This is just pervasive, deliberate bogus reporting.

       

Re: Vaccines, reasons for concern, part 3 Alex Berenson

IM Doc

About the Berenson article on COVID.

This is another source of extreme cognitive dissonance for me.

He is a Tom Clancy like thriller author. In fairness, while he was a reporter earlier in his career, he did a lot of work on Pharma. He has a very good handle on how to read scientific research and to do statistics.

Repeatedly, he has far more closely mirrored the conversation I am hearing in academic medicine regarding COVID. Far more closely than what the American people are getting from mainstream media.

I did not know he was on substack now. This paper is an almost duplicate of a journal club I was at last night.

So our mainstream media seems to not be able to accurately understand/report Covid numbers and epidemiology to the American people but a thriller writer can.

We truly are in the Twilight Zone.

And the hit pieces on him and the visceral hatred directed his way have just been breathtaking to behold.

I do not like his take on masking. As one of the links pointed out yesterday, the answer there is not going to be found in research or RCTs easily or quickly. The framing on masking by our health officials has been abysmal, in that Berenson is 100% correct.

Has Berenson been wrong? You bet. But he seems to immediately correct and make amends. Has Fauci been wrong? Oh yes. But no correction from him – just weaseling. I do not like some of the childish Berenson behavior, but he has been far closer to what is being discussed behind closed doors in medicine than our mainstream media.
 

Raymond Sim

Berenson, has participated in egregious lying ad hominems against Zoe Hyde and Kimberley Prather, and seemed to be working in some sort of tag team with Angela Rasmussen, of all people. The problem isn’t that he’s been wrong sometimes, it’s that he’s a liar.

I don’t think he’s what his fans think he is, and I don’t think being right or wrong has anything to do with his job. Information operations aren’t about persuasion nearly as often as about inducing uncertainty.


  1. IM Doc

    I mean this as no personal offense to you – but your comment is a great example of something that has been let loose on our society by Twitter et al.

    I have had the most amazing opportunity as an academic physician to work with some of the great minds of the 20th Century – all the way up to Nobel Laureates.

    These people are at times brilliant – but at other times play in the gutter. Almost to the one – there are very very bad character flaws. Some of them lie, some of them exaggerate, some of them have sex with everyone on campus, some of them game their financials, I can go on and on and on.

    I have seen the biggest knock down drag outs you could ever imagine in medical presentations – with both sides calling each other liars, scum or much worse. Right in front of 600 people.

    That is the way things are done in medicine. If they are not saying it out loud – they are certainly calling each other names behind their backs. You will never find a bigger bunch of prima donnas than on any medical campus anywhere.

    It is true of almost everyone – and early on I learned the value of a very simple Bible verse – FOR ALL HAVE SINNED AND FALL SHORT OF THE GLORY.

    I do not know about these incidents to which you speak. Nor do I know about the incidents that these supposed offended may have engaged in the same behavior. Given the state of our media – I would not be surprised at anything. It brings out the very worst in us all.

    I do know of an article from the Atlantic about Berenson – where I can point out lie after lie after lie.

    But what does it matter? – when someone is putting forth hypotheses and statements and following the scientific method – then we should put all that aside – and engage their ideas.

    After 30 years of watching this happen on almost a daily basis – you learn how to split that in your mind. Unfortunately – our whole society is on Twitter et all calling everyone else a liar, scum or whatever name they choose. This is literally killing the country – and until we all grow up and act like adults – and realize that every one of us is a fallen being – this may be the end of us all.

     
    1. Raymond Sim

      No offense taken. It’s a bit weird to find that I come off as some kind of naif though. I’m passingly familiar with academia, and you’re not really describing anything that doesn’t seemingly hold true across many fields. I would point out though, that you omitted to mention the compliant imbeciles who infest all the fields where lots of money gets sluiced out. The pandemic has made it quite clear that academic medicine is as bad as economics in that regard. Epidemiology and id are mind-blowingly bad.

      Now I’ll take my turn to misread you, I wasn’t raised in an Abrahamic religion, and I often find those who were take things I say as attacks on some sort of essential quality of a person or institution, when my concerns are actually utilitarian. I think you’re doing that here.

      In viewing these internecine battles, if for some reason you need to make a best guess as to the truth of something, does your knowledge of who has told what lies, and for what reasons not factor into your judgement? Philandering and embezzling are bad signs to be sure, but wouldn’t persistent public lying, even in the face of repeated correction be a bigger red flag?

      In fact given your description of the way of things, doesn’t your first concern have to be the degree of confidence you’re going to give to the idea that someone is following the scientific method at all? Assuming that science is what they purport to be doing.

      Which brings me to my final point, Alex Berenson isn’t a scientist, he’s a propagandist, an information warrior. He absolutely deserves to be called out as such, whatever it is he may be saying at the moment. The fact that he is disgustingly mendacious is absolutely relevant to his expressed opinions on any topic. And the fact that he took part in scurrilous attacks on Zoe Hyde and Kimberley Prather, two reputable scientists who took up the cudgels on airborne transmission and the measures that will be needed to make schools safe, with the clear purpose of discrediting their cause, by insinuating, for instance, that Zoe Hyde would have all our children subjected to daily anal swabbing at the hands of school personnel, is an absolutely significant data point in approaching anything else he has to say about the pandemic.

       
      1. IM Doc

        I could not disagree more

        To single out just Alex Berenson as an information warrior undercuts what you say. Are we to dismiss everything anyone without a degree in science has to say? That would take out most of our media and talk show hosts.

        I have never read anything by either of the two people you mentioned. I have read some of what Berenson has written and it has at times been very close to points I am hearing in my circles that are just not being discussed by our mainstream media.

        I could with some time type out all kinds of inappropriate things said and done by Fauci in the AIDS crisis decades ago.

        By your reasoning that would therefore instantly disqualify anything he says from being taken seriously. Unfortunately some of what Fauci did back then led to deaths ( look up AZT). It was not just anal swabs.

        What I am saying is name almost anyone and things said in the past can be found to discredit them.

        There are those of us who find all kinds of propaganda warriors in the media mendacious. Rachel Maddow and Sean Hannity make a career of it. But these are the people are culture have decided to use to inform the people. Unfortunate that the medical experts in the media fall right in line.

        This is the world we create when normal people have to sift through lies for nuggets of truth.

        I am just not buying it that just one of them should be singled out.

         
        1. Raymond Sim

          I didn’t single Berenson out, his name just keeps coming up, However, I hereby resolve to equitably denounce anyone else I perceive to be doing the kind of shit Berenson does.

          Right off the top of my head: Angela Rasmussen, Alasdair Munro, Monica Gandhi, and Peter Daszak are all guilty of the same sort of thing, and they’re real scientists too. They’re real scientists and truly terrible guides in attempting to find the truth. I think it’s because they lie.

          I won’t be claiming that every word out of their mouths is a lie, I didn’t claim that about Berenson either. I didn’t say anything anybody says is “automatically disqualified from being taken seriously” and that’s not a reasoned deduction from what I did say.

          Anything anybody says about something as important as this pandemic should be able to stand on its own merits if it’s to be taken seriously. It doesn’t matter how credible a figure makes the assertion. I honestly don’t see that it should be at all controversial to point out that habitual liars in particular make poor candidates for the benefit of any doubt.

          Maddow and Hannity are, to be sure, more successful creatures of the same type as Berenson. Nothing they say can be taken as true without evidence. Did you want me to denounce them too, if I was going to pick on Berenson?

          Fauci is a far more sinister figure than any of the others, but the fact that Berenson pales in significance by comparison is not a sound reason to give him any kind of pass.

           
      2. IM Doc

        The scientific method is not just for scientists. It is for everyone to use to process hypotheses and thought processes.

        He has put forth an idea or two and thought processes in that paper. Whether he has lied about other things in his life is not the point.

        If you think the paper may apply to your life your work or your health you should read it , and then dispute any assertions he makes with your own facts or thoughts.

        To just prima facie dismiss because you have experience that you believe he is a liar is itself an ad hominem argument. You are xyz bad thing therefore your argument is automatically bad.

        If you find things in the paper to dispute, dispute them. That is the essence of the scientific method. The ad hominem world of social media is completely destroying that.

        And I can give you countless examples in medicine and pandemics past where individuals were thought of as liars crazy or worse. But ended up absolutely in the right.

        Look up Ignaz Semmelweis for one.

         
        1. Raymond Sim

          I’m repeating myself, but I did not dismiss anything Berenson said in the article. In other discussions here I’ve been at pains to point that out, and to point out that your opinion of what he’s said there is of far more note than my own take.

          Science isn’t just for scientists, I couldn’t agree more. Cranks are often the ones who are right, absolutely true.

          None of this changes the fact that when a liar appears to be telling the truth it’s a good idea to run a self-diagnostic. It’s also a good idea to make sure that people are aware that a person being cited warrants careful scrutiny re veracity and motives.

fresno dan

as I grow older, the medical problems multiply. So it turns out I have atrial fibrillation. After I had been told I didn’t. So this is after I expressed concerns to my doctor after my decline in cardiac capacity, who then had me wear a cardiac monitor for two weeks, told me Ijust had occasional irregular heartbeats (which I found concerning) but not afib, but now my doctor either looked at the data again or somebody told him he was wrong and that I do have atrial fibrillation. Maybe its time to get a new doctor and get a cardiologist as well (I had cardiologists for years after the heart attack, but stopped having one after I retired as they were not all that useful)
So now I am prescribed xarelto. I don’t know. My problem is that so many “new” drugs that I have been prescribed ending up having black box warning, e.g., Plavix, Avandia. I have taken a baby aspirin twice a day after my heart attack (25 years ago) after I stopped taking Plavix and I’m still alive, so I am loathe to add yet another drug to my regimen. Having worked at FDA I know how doctors get their beliefs about drugs. I am not a doctor, and they have education, training, experience that I do not have. On the other hand, two doctors missed diagnosing my Hodgkin’s diesease AFTER I told them I thought I had it. And my self diagnosis of atrial fibrillation was more correct than my doctor’s intial assessment. And I probably know more about how pharmaceutical companies manipulate studies.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/fda-and-nih-let-clinical-trial-sponsors-keep-results-secret-and-break-law
For 20 years, the U.S. government has urged companies, universities, and other institutions that conduct clinical trials to record their results in a federal database, so doctors and patients can see whether new treatments are safe and effective. Few trial sponsors have consistently done so, even after a 2007 law made posting mandatory for many trials registered in the database
….
Science examined more than 4700 trials whose results should have been posted on the NIH website ClinicalTrials.gov under the 2017 rule. Reporting rates by most large pharmaceutical companies and some universities have improved sharply, but performance by many other trial sponsors—including, ironically, NIH itself—was lackluster. Those sponsors, typically either the institution conducting a trial or its funder, must deposit results and other data within 1 year of completing a trial. But of 184 sponsor organizations with at least five trials due as of 25 September 2019, 30 companies, universities, or medical centers never met a single deadline.

From Google search
New Study: Xarelto No Better Than Aspirin At Preventing Blood Clots. A new medical trial comparing low-dose aspirin with expensive Xarelto found that aspirin was just as effective at controlling proximal deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism.Mar 12, 2020.

 
  1. The Historian

    You definitely need a new doctor, but there is no way of actually knowing if the new doctor will be any better or worse than the one you have.

    Like you, I was told to wear a monitor for a month because I was having bouts where my hearr rate slowed to 40 bpm and I would feel faint. Even though I had several of these bouts, the doctor said the monitor showed my heart rate was ‘unremarkable’. So I asked to see some of the strips from the monitor and the doctor said he didn’t have them – that a company in NJ was supposed to be monitoring the monitor and that they only sent him a report that said ‘unremarkable’. So I had all the expensive tests, and even though I am still having these bouts and I actually had some in the doctor’s office, the cardiologist said that there was nothing they could do – just a product of ‘old age’ – I’m 72 – and that I would just have to ‘live with them’. So I am looking for a doctor in a new town, and all I am finding when I search for doctors is how well their patients like them – not much else! So I guess bedside manner is now more important than competence?

     
    1. IM Doc

      In Medicine – this is known as a PRESS GANEY score. It is one of the worst abominations to have been released on medicine in my lifetime – right up there with the electronic medical record.

      You are right – it is far far more important for modern docs that work for a health system or corporation that their patients leave the office with a smile on their face.

      I am all about having a good bedside manner – I am told by my own patients all the time that I do – and to be honest that is all I care about. But the drunkard beating his wife who left my office yesterday afternoon most definitely did not have a smile on his face when he left – nor did the lady eating 2 bags of Doritos daily with a blood sugar of 313.

      When we as a society wonder why we have an obesity problem in this country – I think a large part of the reason is our new generation of physicians and health care are navel-gazing and marinating themselves in a bathtub of happy scores. And the evil part – their incomes and their bonuses depend on it.

      It is a disgrace.
       

      1. Stevew

        Thank you IM Doc for all your posts. Not that I disagree, but please enlighten us with your take on electronic medical records.

         
      2. drumlin woodchuckles

        Is it that a new generation of physicians and health care are navel-gazing and marinating themselves in a bathtub of happy scores? Or is it that the people who determine their incomes and bonuses and their even staying employed are marinating them in it? Whom should we blame here?

         
        1. IM Doc

          It started with the administrators and handing over the leadership of medicine to the MBA crowd.

          At this point, the docs have just allowed it to happen for so long that I am not sure who is responsible.
           

          IM Doc

          I obviously do not know you at all – but I understand your situation – and where you have questions are the same questions I have had for a very long time.

          First of all – there is a cardiologist trained in EP who seems to have his head screwed on correctly – who writes a very informative blog about rhythm problems – and other cardiac issues. His name is John Mandrola –

          Secondly – do not spend another cent ( or Medicare cents ) on cardiac monitoring – those 30 day monitors literally cost 5-7 K dollars. It is a total scam that should have no excuse of happening anymore. When I say I work for an industry that is a wealth extraction machine – I am not kidding.
          There is a device called a Kardia Mobile. Look it up on Amazon. The least expensive one is the kind you need – about 80 bucks the last time I looked.

          It goes into your cell phone – and when you need to intermittently monitor your heart or certainly when having any kind of symptoms – you put your fingers on it – and it will do an ECG. They do exactly the same function as the big expensive ones – for literally 1-2% of the cost – AND you get to keep it forever – to monitor yourself for all time…..

          I have not looked in to them much – but a colleague has told me about another device out there called Oura Rings. They actually have the ability to monitor your heart 24/7 – and they fit on your finger like a wedding ring. Again, I have not had the opportunity to personally evaluate – but I will be soon. To be honest, I usually try these things out on myself first.

          I have been using these Kardia Mobile devices exclusively for the past 2 years. A colleague of mine in a big city who worked for a hospital system was fined by bonus reduction for ordering these at all. I am sad to say the MBAs in the mahogany offices have the docs by the gonads in these big HMOs like Kaiser and the big hospital systems in Anytown USA.

          I am sick and tired of all the scams. The fact that XARELTO now almost 10 years after its introduction is costing patients 500 bucks a month or so is an absolute sin. Coumadin is about 25 cents a pill – so less than 10 dollars a month. You just have to be monitored – way more at the beginning but much less often as time goes on.

          And yes – there is nascent controversy about whether people do better with AFIB on ASPIRIN or XARELTO/ELIQIUS/WARFARIN.

          I am old-fashioned. There was a time when I was young when the internist’s job was to sit down and comprehensively go through all of this with the patient. I still do. But I also do not work for a hospital system and I do not have an MBA as my boss demanding I see 30 people a day. And drug reps are banned from my office.

           
          1. fresno dan

            IM Doc
            July 13, 2021 at 12:11 pm
            Thank you for the good advice. I only have a flip phone – I remember when I use to ride my brontosaurus and they made it lllegal to ride and talk on the phone at the same time, but maybe its time to come into the 21st century.
            Rants:
            1. Google gave me search results of electrophisiologists in Nebraska and Virginia, even though the search querry specifically said located in Fresno, CA. good grief…
            2. Of several doctors and practices called, nobody picks up the phone. Phone trees. After going through the tree, I’m told to leave a message.
            3. Phone numbers that appear to be phone numbers of physicians, but are actually the number of physician referral services.

re: #COVID19

Reprogrammed CRISPR-Cas13b suppresses SARS-CoV-2 replication and circumvents its mutational escape through mismatch tolerance Nature. The Abstract concludes: “[T]he recent dramatic appearance of variants of concern of SARS-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) highlights the need for innovative approaches that simultaneously suppress viral replication and circumvent viral escape from host immunity and antiviral therapeutics…. The specificity, efficiency and rapid deployment properties of reprogrammed Cas13b described here provide a molecular blueprint for antiviral drug development to suppress and prevent a wide range of SARS-CoV-2 mutants, and is readily adaptable to other emerging pathogenic viruses.” Good to finally see some focus on treatment. And CRISPR as a platform, hmm…
 

Rodeo Clownfish

The idea of using reprogrammed Cas13b as a treatment seems a bit scary. That is literally a tool for rewriting genetic code. I did get an mRNA vaccine, but I would not consent to CASPR-based treatment unless imminent death was the clear alternative. How can we trust that the product does only what it is advertised to do? They could slip in genetic programming to perform unwanted changes (insert favorite paranoia here).

 
  1. JohnnySacks

    They don’t ‘slip in’ anything, so stop there. The uncertainty is that the CRSPR guide attaches to an unexpected area of DNA and modifies it.

     
    1. IM Doc

      I agree with what you are saying. The idea is not to slip in anything.

      Here is the problem from someone dealing with real-live patients all day long.

      The world population was repeatedly and vociferously assured that the mRNA vaccines were just going to stay in the deltoid. Be located in the general injection site for a few seconds and do their thing and be gone. This was screamed from the rooftops for weeks and months when these were being introduced. From the pharma companies, their paid shills, and all kinds of commenters all over the Internet.

      But yet – right in black and white, in the pharmacokinetic section of the Moderna vaccine application for the European Medical Agency – it clearly states that lipoid particles and S proteins were being found all over the body – and indeed were found in circulating plasma up to 6 hours later.

      IN OTHER WORDS, A COMPLETE 180 FROM THEIR DATA SUBMITTED TO REGULATORY AGENCIES. DATA THAT THEY KNEW ABOUT LONG BEFORE ANY OF THESE COMFORTING EFFORTS WERE INITIATED.

      This was not a hypothesis to be debated. This was firm hard facts right in their own material.

      And now we may have this possible new technology – and we expect people to believe a thing about it?

      That is the problem – and Big Pharma and all this dissembling is just making it worse by the day.
       

      Phillip Cross

      “Not surprisingly, everything the establishment tells us about covid vaccines has been a calculated lie. One of the biggest and most treacherous lies is that “mRNA vaccine shots stay in the arm and don’t circulate nanoparticles around the body.” Now we know that is a complete lie, as new research conducted in Japan shows that Lipid NanoParticles (LNPs) containing the mRNA code are widely circulated around the body after vaccination, reaching the brain, spleen, large intestine, heart, liver, lungs and other organs.”

      https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/covid-19-vaccines-are-going-to-sterilize-our-womenfolk-take-2/

      Are you the Mike Adams quoted in this article?

       
      1. IM Doc

        I am most definitely not.

        However – if you would look at the EMA documents – I will get it for you as soon as I have time to find it – it is clearly there.

        Things that are so easily called out like this are what cause great amounts of consternation among the populace. It is the very wellspring of conspiracy theories.

        TRUTH AND TRANSPARENCY ARE THE ONLY WAY. Until we learn that – this kind of thing will just continue to happen and get worse.

        I am afraid that as a primary care provider – I am right on the front lines of this every day – and I see and know what makes people think the way they do.

        Once you let out deceptions as egregious as this mRNA circulating one – that can so easily be falsified – you have opened the door to every kind of conspiracy theory imaginable.

        Found it – https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/assessment-report/spikevax-previously-covid-19-vaccine-moderna-epar-public-assessment-report_en.pdf

        This is the OFFICIAL MODERNA DOCUMENTATION submitted to the EMA – for approval of the vaccine. It is a pdf – look at page 46 in the 6th paragraph down – that begins IN NON-HUMAN PRIMATES. THere are also other figures and documents detailing the issue elsewhere in the document.

        The EMA has completely different laws and requirements than we do – so quite a bit of things are found there that are not found here.

         
        1. Phillip Cross

          Thanks for the PDF.

          As far as I can tell, they are talking about a test in mice and hamsters, and it says that the s-protein is undetectable in most areas within 24 hours of the first dose, and it’s undetectable in the liver and lymph nodes within 3 days.

          I guess I never saw anyone claim otherwise, but why is this supposed to be so scary anyway?

           
          1. IM Doc

            Multiple concerns there –
            The most onerous of which is that it clearly crosses the blood brain barrier – indicating that it would be being taken up by neurons.
            Brain tissue is irreplaceable – and we just really do not know for certain what damage is being done by these S-proteins on the loose.

            Furthermore – and FYI – all documents like this for drug authorization and approval do all the measurements in animals – that is standard issue. This one is particularly rushed – so the human documentation will presumably be forthcoming. You can rest assured if this is happening in other mammals – almost certainly happening in us as well.

            I would not call this scary. I would call this evidence that yet again – our health officials are big liars. I have come to the conclusion that they can be trusted on very little. THAT is scary.

Mikel

Re: Breathrough infections / wedding

Wedding may have been in an outdoor open tent, but everyone shared a bathroom or two.
Is anyone testing the bathroom(s) they used?

And the guests from India were negative before they got on a plane. Was there follow up on the flight passengers?
 

  1. IM Doc

    I have already had two distinct incidents in the past month where patients were negative at their foreign vacation area right before getting on the plane – and then were positive and sick (and vaccinated I might add) a few days later. This was in 2 countries on 2 different continents.






temporaryreality: (Default)
 

The Pandemic Is Us (But Now Mostly Them)

Posted on June 21, 2021 by 

Yves here. I can no doubt be accused of showing my pessimistic colors, but the assumption that the Covid pandemic is largely a thing of the past in advanced economies is too smug for comfort. Even now, with most Americans who’ve been vaccinated having done so in the last four months (as in the immunity is still strong), outbreaks are occurring in populations with vaccination levels higher than US averages. For instance, from Public Radio Tulsa:

At least 25 staff members at the New Life Ranch Flint Valley camp in Colcord have tested positive, according to camp officials….

New Life Ranch does not require staff be vaccinated against COVID-19, but said 63% of employees had been.

And Moderna is saying that those vaccinated in December will soon need shots to protect against new variants. How many of the vaccinated have gotten the memo?

The article also seems to assume that Magic Vaccines will protect the elect in the global north; too bad about the refusniks and the poor. But as GM warned:

It is actually very dangerous for people to be happy with “transmission but little to no disease”

We are basically redoing the serial passaging experiments in mice that were done for SARS-1 and for this virus too, and which take it from a virus that causes little harm to mice to one that is highly lethal. We know very well that the evolutionary potential is there for at least 10% lethality, probably more (if the ancestor of this virus is indeed the one from the Yunnan mine, it was at more than 10% IFR).

So these few months of “normality” may well be paid for with an absolute slaughter further down the line.

I am following the databases carefully, and I am seeing Q498 mutations showing up here and there, all from areas of the world with high vaccination rates. Of course, those are also the places that are sequencing the most, so it’s a confounded observation, but who knows…

Also, the place in the world with the highest abundance of B.1.617.2 + K417N (which is now called AY.1) is California. K417N is a strongly immune evasive mutation so expect it to be just as virulent as regular B.1.617.2 but to break through a lot more often and probably with more serious symptoms too. But CA and everyone else is sequencing a lot less than before, and nobody is bothering to track what’s happening. And testing is dramatically down pretty much everywhere in the US, free mass testing sites are closing, etc…

I got another argument when I was in New York on why to not worry about Covid: all pandemics have fizzled out. The Russian pandemic of the late 1800s is now believed to have been a coronavirus, confirming that this one is not to be particularly feared. IM Doc felt compelled to clear his throat:

The statement that “all pandemics die out” and therefore we are done with this one is about as imbecile as Ibram X Kendi a few years ago at the Aspen Ideas forum when asked “What is your definition of racism?” – and his answer – “Racism is racist policies, leading to racist outcomes by racist people”. And that was that. The answer is so alarmingly stupid it is hard to know which logical fallacy to apply.

I have news for your MIT professor – ALL PANDEMICS DO DIE OUT – and this one will too. I am not sure there is anyone that disputes that. And when they die out they almost all turn into “routine nuisances” – but let us go back in time to the 1890s….

He is talking about OC43 – the coronavirus that is STILL here today – still infects half the world’s population every year – still causes untold billions of days off work from illness – and still kills upwards of 2000-10000 people every year. I guess that is the routine nuisance part. But let us go back in time to the 1890s.

That virus swept through the world 5-7 times depending on geography. It started in 1889. The second wave of 1890-1891 particulary that winter ( which we appear to be entering now with COVID 19) was the bomb in the UK, Western Europe and North America. It killed untold millions the world over. It destroyed the transportation (rail) and retail industry in the West. It led to the worst economic crisis up until that point in the history of America. Although not alone – there were other events that followed – the economic crisis it engendered eventually led to the development of the Fed. The economic strife led to the greatest Anarchist movement the USA and Western Europe had ever seen – eventually to the assassination of McKinley – and was the initial impetus for the Bolshevik Revolution – after the tensions it unleashed had been left to boil for a few more years. The Anarchist movement in the USA and all the issues it caused – bred an equal and opposite backlash in the rest of the country that led to the rise and almost total domination of multiple states by the KKK over the next several decades. It killed the only heir to the British throne – altering world history by placing a German family on the throne of the most powerful nation on Earth. The events unleashed on the world during that decade were the initial blows to Britain – the pre-eminent world power – and eventually led to the rise of the USA. Elites of all stripes were fleeing New York and putting places like Newport RI on the map. The economic conditions unleashed caused the wealth inequality to explode for a few years that only ended with Roosevelt and the trust-busting. (I see no one of similar stature on either side of the aisle – all we have now is Orange Hair Orangutans on one side and President Pudding Head on the other). There are many historians that are of the opinion that the economic, social and political chaos unleashed by this pandemic were the first dominoes that eventually led to WWI.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Now to the main event.

By Rajan Menon. Originally published at TomDispatch

Fifteen months ago, the SARS-CoV-2 virus unleashed Covid-19. Since then, it’s killed more than 3.8 million people worldwide (and possibly many more). Finally, a return to normalcy seems likely for a distinct minority of the world’s people, those living mainly in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and China. That’s not surprising.  The concentration of wealth and power globally has enabled rich countries to all but monopolize available vaccine doses. For the citizens of low-income and poor countries to have long-term pandemic security, especially the 46% of the world’s population who survive on less than $5.50 a day, this inequity must end, rapidly — but don’t hold your breath.

The Global North: Normalcy Returns

In the United States new daily infections, which peaked in early January, had plummeted 96% by June 16th. The daily death toll also dropped — by 92% — and the consequences were apparent. Big-city streets were bustling again, as shops and restaurants became ever busier. Americans were shedding their reluctance to travel by plane or train, as schools and universities prepared to resume “live instruction” in the fall. Zoom catch-ups were yielding to socializing the old-fashioned way.

By that June day, new infections and deaths had fallen substantially below their peaks in other wealthy parts of the world as well. In Canada, cases had dropped by 89% and deaths by 94%; in Europe by 87% and 87%; and in the United Kingdom by 84% and 99%.

Yes, European governments were warier than the U.S. about giving people the green light to resume their pre-pandemic lifestyles and have yet to fully abolish curbs on congregating and traveling. Perhaps recalling Britain’s previous winter surge, thanks to the B.1.1.7 mutation (initially discovered there) and the recent appearance of two other virulent strains of Covid-19, B.1.167 and B.1.617.2 (both first detected in India), Downing Street has retained restrictions on social gatherings. It’s even put off a full reopening on June 21st, as previously planned. And that couldn’t have been more understandable. After all, on June 17th, the new case count had reached 10,809, the highest since late March. Still, new daily infections there are less than a tenth what they were in early January. So, like the U.S., Britain and the rest of Europe are returning to some semblance of normalcy.

The Global South: A Long Road Ahead

Lately, the place that’s been hit the hardest by Covid-19 is the global south where countries are particularly ill-prepared.

Consider social distancing. People with jobs that can be done by “working from home” constitute a far smaller proportion of the labor force than in wealthy nations with far higher levels of education, mechanization, and automation, along with far greater access to computers and the Internet. An estimated 40% of workers in rich countries can work remotely. In lower- and middle-income lands perhaps 10% can do so and the numbers are even worse in the poorest of them.  

During the pandemic, millions of Canadians, Europeans, and Americans lost their jobs and struggled to pay food and housing bills. Still, the economic impact has been far worse in other parts of the world, particularly the poorest African and Asian nations. There, some 100 million people have fallen back into extreme poverty.

Such places lack the basics to prevent infections and care for Covid-19 patients. Running water, soap, and hand sanitizer are often not readily available. In the developing world, 785 million or more people lack “basic water services,” as do a quarter of health clinics and hospitals there, which have also faced crippling shortages of standard protective gear, never mind oxygen and ventilators.

Last year, for instance, South Sudan, with 12 million people, had only four ventilators and 24 ICU beds. Burkina Faso had 11 ventilators for its 20 million people; Sierra Leone 13 for its eight million; and the Central African Republic, a mere three for eight million. The problem wasn’t confined to Africa either. Virtually all of Venezuela’s hospitals have run low on critical supplies and the country had 84 ICU beds for nearly 30 million people.

Yes, wealthy countries like the U.S. faced significant shortages, but they had the cash to buy what they needed (or could ramp up production at home). The global south’s poorest countries were and remain at the back of the queue.

India’s Disaster

India has provided the most chilling illustration of how spiraling infections can overwhelm healthcare systems in the global south. Things looked surprisingly good there until recently. Infection and death rates were far below what experts had anticipated based on the economy, population density, and the highly uneven quality of its healthcare system. The government’s decision to order a phased lifting of a national lockdown seemed vindication indeed. As late as April, India reported fewer new cases per million than Britain, France, Germany, the U.K., or the U.S.

Never one for modesty, its Hindu nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, boasted that India had “saved humanity from a great disaster by containing Corona effectively.” He touted its progress in vaccination; bragged that it was now exporting masks, test kits, and safety equipment; and mocked forecasts that Covid-19 would infect 800 million Indians and kill a million of them. Confident that his country had turned the corner, he and his Bharatiya Janata Party held huge, unmasked political rallies, while millions of Indians gathered in vast crowds for the annual Kumbh Mela religious festival.

Then, in early April, the second wave struck with horrific consequences. By May 6th, the daily case count had reached 414,188. On May 19th, it would break the world record for daily Covid-19 deaths, previously a dubious American honor, recording almost 4,500 of them.

Hospitals quickly ran out of beds. The sick were turned away in droves and left to die at home or even in the streets, gasping for breath. Supplies of medical oxygen and ventilators ran out, as did personal protective equipment. Soon, Modi had to appeal for help, which many countries provided.

Indian press reports estimate that fully half of India’s 300,000-plus Covid-19 deaths have occurred in this second wave, the vast majority after March. During the worst of it, the air in India’s big cities was thick with smoke from crematoria, while, because of the shortage of designated cremation and burial sites, corpses regularly washed up on riverbanks.

We may never know how many Indians have actually died since April. Hospital records, even assuming they were kept fastidiously amid the pandemonium, won’t provide the full picture because an unknown number of people died elsewhere.

The Vaccination Divide

Other parts of the global south have also been hit by surging infections, including countries in Asia which had previously contained Covid-19’s spread, among them Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. Latin America has seen devastating surges of the pandemic, above all in Brazil because of President Jair Bolsonaro’s stunning combination of fecklessness and callousness, but also in Bolivia, Columbia, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. In Africa, Angola, Namibia, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are among 14 countries in which infections have spiked.  

Meanwhile, the data reveal a gargantuan north-south vaccination gap. By early June, the U.S. had administered doses to nearly half the country’s population, in Britain slightly more than half, in Canada just over a third, and in the European Union approximately a third. (Bear in mind that the proportions would be far higher were only adults counted and that vaccination rates are still increasing far faster in these places than in the global south.)

Now consider examples of vaccination coverage in low-income countries.

  • In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, Vietnam, and Zambia it ranged from 0.1% to 0.9% of the population.
  • In Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Pakistan, Senegal, and South Africa, between 1% and 2.4%.
  • In Botswana and Zimbabwe, which have the highest coverage in sub-Saharan Africa, 3% and 3.6% respectively.
  • In Asia (China and Singapore aside), Cambodia at 9.6% was the leader, followed by India at 8.5%.  Coverage in all other Asian countries was below 5.4.%.

This north-south contrast matters because mutations first detected in the U.K.BrazilIndia, and South Africa, which may prove up to 50% more transmissible, are already circulating worldwide. Meanwhile, new ones, perhaps even more virulent, are likely to emerge in largely unvaccinated nations. This, in turn, will endanger anyone who’s unvaccinated and so could prove particularly calamitous for the global south.

Why the vaccination gap? Wealthy countries, none more than the United States, could afford to spend billions of dollars to buy vaccines. They’re home as well to cutting-edge biotechnology companies like AstraZeneca, BioNTech, Johnson and Johnson, Moderna, and Pfizer. Those two advantages enabled them to preorder enormous quantities of vaccine, indeed almost all of what BioNTech and Moderna anticipated making in 2021, and even before their vaccines had completed clinical trials. As a result, by late March, 86% of all vaccinations had been administered in that part of the world, a mere 0.1% in poor regions.

This wasn’t the result of some evil conspiracy. Governments in rich countries weren’t sure which vaccine-makers would succeed, so they spread their bets. Nevertheless, their stockpiling gambit locked up most of the global supply.

Equity vs. Power

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who leads the World Health Organization (WHO), was among those decrying the inequity of “vaccine nationalism.” To counter it, he and others proposed that the deep-pocketed countries that had vacuumed up the supplies, vaccinate only their elderly, individuals with pre-existing medical conditions, and healthcare workers, and then donate their remaining doses so that other countries could do the same. As supplies increased, the rest of the world’s population could be vaccinated based on an assessment of the degree to which different categories of people were at risk.

COVAX, the U.N. program involving 190 countries led by the WHO and funded by governments and private philanthropies, would then ensure that getting vaccinated didn’t depend on whether or not a person lived in a wealthy country. It would also leverage its large membership to secure low prices from vaccine manufacturers.

That was the idea anyway. The reality, of course, has been altogether different. Though most wealthy countries, including the U.S. following Biden’s election, did join COVAX, they also decided to use their own massive buying power to cut deals directly with the pharmaceutical giants and vaccinate as many of their own as they could. And in February, the U.S. government took the additional step of invoking the Defense Production Act to restrict exports of 37 raw materials critical for making vaccines.

COVAX has received support, including $4 billion pledged by President Joe Biden for 2021 and 2022, but nowhere near what’s needed to reach its goal of distributing two billion doses by the end of this year. By May, in fact, it had distributed just 3.4% of that amount.

Biden recently announced that the U.S. would donate 500 million doses of vaccines this year and next, chiefly to COVAX; and at their summit this month, the G-7 governments announced plans to provide one billion altogether. That’s a large number and a welcome move, but still modest considering that 11 billion doses are needed to vaccinate 70% of the world.

COVAX’s problems have been aggravated by the decision of India, counted on to provide half of the two billion doses it had ordered for this year, to ban vaccine exports. Aside from vaccine, COVAX’s program is focused on helping low-income countries train vaccinators, create distribution networks, and launch public awareness campaigns, all of which will be many times more expensive for them than vaccine purchases and no less critical.

Another proposal, initiated in late 2020 by India and South Africa and backed by 100 countries, mostly from the global south, calls for the World Trade Organization (WTO) to suspend patents on vaccines so that pharmaceutical companies in the global south can manufacture them without violating intellectual property laws and so launch production near the places that need them the most.

That idea hasn’t taken wing either.

The pharmaceutical companies, always zealous about the sanctity of patents, have trotted out familiar arguments (recall the HIV-AIDS crisis): their counterparts in the global south lack the expertise and technology to make complex vaccines quickly enough; efficacy and safety could prove substandard; lifting patent restrictions on this occasion could set a precedent and stifle innovation; and they had made huge investments with no guarantees of success.

Critics challenged these claims, but the bio-tech and pharmaceutical giants have more clout, and they simply don’t want to share their knowledge. None of them, for instance, has participated in the WHO’s Covid-19 Technology Access Pool (C-TAP), created expressly to promote the voluntary international sharing of intellectual property, technology, and knowhow, through non-restricted licensing.

On the (only faintly) brighter side, Moderna announced last October that it wouldn’t enforce its Covid-19 vaccine patents during the pandemic — but didn’t offer any technical assistance to pharmaceutical firms in the global south. AstraZeneca gave the Serum Institute of India a license to make its vaccine and also declared that it would forgo profits from vaccine sales until the pandemic ends. The catch: it reserved the right to determine that end date, which it may declare as early as this July.

In May, President Biden surprised many people by supporting the waiving of patents on Covid-19 vaccines. That was a big change given the degree to which the U.S. government has been a dogged defender of intellectual property rights. But his gesture, however commendable, may remain just that. Germany dissented immediately. Others in the European Union seem open to discussion, but that, at best, means protracted WTO negotiations about a welter of legal and technical details in the midst of a global emergency.  

And the pharmaceutical companies will hang tough. Never mind that many received billions of dollars from governments in various forms, including equity purchases, subsidies, large preordered vaccine contracts ($18 billion from the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed program alone), and research-and-development partnerships with government agencies. Contrary to its narrative, Big Pharma never placed huge, risky bets to create Covid-19 vaccines.

How Does This End?

Various mutations of the virus, several highly infectious, are now traveling the world and new ones are expected to arise. This poses an obvious threat to the inhabitants of low-income countries where vaccination rates are already abysmally poor. Given the skewed distribution of vaccines, people there may not be vaccinated, even partially, until 2022, or later. Covid-19 could therefore claim more millions of lives.

But the suffering won’t be confined to the global south. The more the virus replicates itself, the greater the probability of new, even more dangerous, mutations — ones that could attack the tens of millions of unvaccinated in the wealthy parts of the world, too. Between a fifth and a quarter of adults in the U.S. and the European Union say that they’re unlikely to, or simply won’t, get vaccinated. For various reasons, including worry about the safety of vaccines, anti-vax sentiments rooted in religious and political beliefs, and the growing influence of ever wilder conspiracy theories, U.S. vaccination rates slowed starting in mid-April.

As a result, President Biden’s goal of having 70% of adults receive at least one shot by July 4th won’t be realized. With less than two weeks to go, at least half of the adults in 25 states still remain completely unvaccinated. And what if existing vaccines don’t ensure protection against new mutations, something virologists consider a possibility? Booster shots may provide a fix, but not an easy one given this country’s size, the logistical complexities of mounting another vaccination campaign, and the inevitable political squabbling it will produce.

Amid the unknowns, this much is clear: for all the talk about global governance and collective action against threats that don’t respect borders, the response to this pandemic has been driven by vaccine nationalism. That’s indefensible, both ethically and on the grounds of self-interest.
 

Isotope_C14

“Meanwhile, new ones, perhaps even more virulent, are likely to emerge in largely unvaccinated nations.”

I think it should be abundantly clear by now that the vaccines are far from perfect, see here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk

I wouldn’t exactly do a victory lap for a death rate after infection with vaccination that looks like this.

And of course, we don’t know if this virus is lingering in the unvaccinated animals. Animals as a reservoir for human disease transmission is completely normal and to be expected. The way the animals are treated in the large factory farms is abhorrent and a natural recipe for a new variant. One can only hope that after lingering in the pigs or chickens that it becomes less interested in humans, but only time will tell.

 
  1. Ignacio

    Yes, vaccination is only a helping hand, particularly less useful for viruses entering via de upper respiratory tract that transmit as easily as SARS CoV does. Furthermore, repeated vaccination will have a diminishing benefit/risk ratio as it has been shown with flu probably with both, reduced benefit and increased risks.

    Regarding virus evolution, who can predict what is to come? Evolution doesn’t necessarily goes in the direction of production of more and more virulent strains and each virus has limits in its evolving possibilities and the evolutionary dynamics change when viruses become endemic. We have not yet reached the point when most humans have ‘seen’ the virus (or its artificially produced spike protein via vaccines) but I would never use the term ‘serial passage experiment’ as I see this as the natural evolution of a new viral entry in humans as many other before. It is confounding and serial passage usually produces less virulent rather than more virulent variants. Serial passaging means not natural transmission so I would try to avoid using that term. I find it confusing.

     
    1. IM Doc

      I could not agree more.

      We must remember that besides OC43 of the 1890s, we also have the precedent in coronaviruses of SARS and MERS. Neither one is with us today. It is still possible that COVID could weaken quickly as well.

      No one knows. Only time will tell and the introduction of the vaccines is a new twist. I will feel much better if we get through this next fall and winter without major problems. That would be my first relief.

      For now, one day at a time. Be thoughtful. And we should continue to look out for one another.

      I love this forum that we can all share with one another like adults. What a gift!

       
      1. PlutoniumKun

        I second your last comment – this forum is such a haven for high quality discussion. Your contributions (and Ignacio too) have been excellent and I think have helped all our understandings of what is facing us.

         
      2. Isotope_C14

        Thanks to you in particular IM Doc, I’ve forwarded on your text to my siblings and friends when necessary.

        I’m really hoping you are right on the Ivermectin wall falling into itty bitty pieces. I’d like to see this thing over asap.

         
      3. Ignacio

        Be thougthful

        I can only say amen to that. There is a long road ahead with Covid and it will never be pleasant. It is my pleasure to share this space with people like you, Yves, Lambert, JL, PK, Isotope C14, and so many others.

         
      4. GM

        MERS is very much with us, it is a camel virus, and has shown no intention of disappearing in the camel populations

        What saves us there is that it does not transmit well human to human, but that does not stop it from making the jump from camels to humans again and again.

        I am not sure how much it was tracked in 2020 and 2021, but there were more than 200 cases in 2019.

        Also, there is sufficient homology between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 for the two to recombine. Which in the long run may well happen given sufficient SARS-CoV-2 spread on the Arabian peninsula. Then things could get interesting — the highly optimized SARS-CoV-2 spike combined with the highly virulent MERS accessory proteins in “MERS-CoV-2″…

GeoCrackr

Minor quibble with the intro: the 1890s pandemic did not kill “the only heir to the British throne – altering world history by placing a German family on the throne of the most powerful nation on Earth.” It’s hard to know where to begin with this statement, but suffice to say that there was a direct line of succession from Victoria to Edward VII to George V (even if George’s elder brother was killed by the pandemic), and that family was German all along (Victoria’s family name Hanover should’ve been a dead giveaway). Sad to say getting these commonly-known and easily verifiable facts wrong throws all of the other assertions about what that pandemic into a suspicious light.

 
  1. IM Doc

    The fault is all mine.

    A much more appropriate way to have phrased that is that the virus killed the heir apparent to the throne leading to the placement on the throne of family members who maybe were not brought up thinking they would be the “one”.

    Not unlike Elizabeth II’s father after the abdication of her uncle.

    I am an American – and not completely versed in the ins and outs of the British Monarchy. I have however been working with a very elderly gentleman in London who has been sending me all kinds of reports and articles from the time. I can assure you that there was all kinds of concern, chaos and confusion upon the untimely death of Victoria’s heir. It was not a stablizing event, that is for sure.

    This mistake should not reflect on the rest of the article. The plague in the 1890s, just like all pandemics was the catalyst for unleashing all kinds of forces that were already at play at the time but maybe not on the front burner. Absolutely similar to what COVID has done to our world. For example, COVID did not cause wealth inequality – but it sure helped to detonate some of the consequences for all to see.

    Pandemics tend to do that in history.

Arakawa

The CDC meeting on myocarditis in vaccinated children (let’s do nothing, just keep an eye on it for 6 months) is currently in its public comment phase and the public comments are almost a wall-to-wall roasting of the bureaucrats. I wonder if they did a fair lottery to pick speakers, or if they didn’t and were unable to find enough supportive commenters. Doesn’t look like CDC is doing its job successfully (whether you think that job is to stop the vaccine based on the data, or whether it’s just to maintain the public’s confidence in whatever they do).

 
  1. Laura in So Cal

    Lemmy Caution posted links to the CDC Decks at 11:16am in the comments to 6/23/2021 Links. The data is startling. They kept emphasizing that the kids “recovered.” Based on what I’ve read before and also on IM Doc’s comments, myocarditis can cause life long issues so even though their immediate symptoms have resolved, they may not be “recovered.”

     
    1. IM Doc

      Myocardial cells are one of the types of cells in our bodies that are not readily reproducible. Other examples of this are brain and nerve cells. They just simply do not turn over.

      There are organs that are made up of cells that are able to turn over but just do it when they absolutely need to – examples here would be the liver and all the endocrine glands.

      Then there are parts of the body that turn over for a living daily and do so intensely – examples would be the skin and the lining of the GI system.

      Because the myocardium does not reproduce itself, the amount of the initial damage from myocarditis is critical. FYI, the same thing happens in an acute MI – the dead part is just dead – and will forever be dead. The remaining undamaged tissue has the ability to “remodel” and take up some of the slack but the person will never have the same heart.

      To sum it up – with these cases of myocarditis – it is unlike an MI in that the damage is not confined to one area. The damage tends to be global throughout the heart all at once. Recovery is absolutely dependent on how bad that damage is. If recognized and treated early – it is possible to mitigate the damage somewhat depending on what all is involved. Some patients recover reasonably well because the damage was just not that severe. However, many times in my life, I have seen these patients struggle with heart failure symptoms from the moment it happens. We can help this with meds to some degree – and the rhythm problems can be helped with meds and defibrillators – but the patients will never be the same.

      I have been staggered by the reports I am reading from all over about these COVID vaccine young people – and the startling number of them that are having to be transplanted.

      The very concerning thing – there are now hospitals all over America where there are more admissions to the hospital from this COVID vaccine related myocarditis than ever were with the whole 18 months of COVID. I am referring only to the 12-17 age group. NOT THE WHOLE POPULATION. Unfortunately, this now includes my hospital – with zero 12-17 aged COVID admissions this whole time – and we have now had our very first teen admitted critically ill with myocarditis 3 days after the 2nd shot.

      I was on a Zoom conference yesterday about this issue – a very “elder statesman” ethics professor ended the discussion of this myocarditis issue and I almost started tearing up – our standards have fallen so far – he simply stated – the medical ethical principles of beneficience and non-harm are overwhelming in this case. If the CDC/FDA fails to act to protect these young people – let the word go forth – this profession has lost its way, it is corrupt to the core – and is now being run only in the interests of the corporations and not the patients.

      I am not “in the know” – I do not have any access to any deliberations or information that the public itself does not know.

      But I have to say – I could not agree with this gentleman more. We are hearing a lot today that this age group is going to be the new reservoir of the variants and unless vaccinated will be the downfall of us all – all I can say is EVIDENCE PLEASE –
       

      Verifyfirst

      I don’t know anything about medical ethics, but are the rules different during a pandemic? Should they be? As uncomfortable as the rushed (and rigged–not testing, but relying only on self-reported symptoms of illness to derive efficacy numbers) rollout has been, can one really say we should have waited for full/robust results?

      Would we be better off today if no one had yet been vaccinated? I know the conversation here is about 12 to 17, but it is the same conversation regardless of the group in question. Here an article about a possible age 13 death, and the contervailing numbers of under age 19 cases and deaths, in Michigan.

      141,865 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in youth 19 years and younger since the start of the pandemic, and at least 16 residents in that age range have died from their illness.

      https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/06/michigan-teens-death-days-after-covid-19-vaccination-being-investigated.html

       
      1. IM Doc

        When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

        The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

        I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

        With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

        The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

        In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

        One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

        That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

        I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

        I have just about given up.

Milton

Hello IM Doc – Is this the same issue as happens with rheumatic fever patients? My granfather suffered from this at an early age and had always made it known that he would be lucky to live past 60. He died at 61.

 
  1. IM Doc

    What we are talking about with relation to these COVID vaccines is a bit different – but along the same lines. A better analog to this vaccine problem would be post-viral myocarditis. However, there is much that we do not know about this whole situation. There is some debate about what is even causing it and why it seems to get much more common the younger the patient is.

    Rheumatic fever – something which we rarely see anymore after the advent of antibiotics – is a reaction to certain strep. Both the actual organism and the immune system play a role.

    The kidneys and other organs can also be heavily involved. The patients often had an infection in youth – which damaged their heart and would later have big problems. In the case of rheumatic fever – yes there is some myocarditis – but this is mainly a problem with the heart valves. The pericardium could also be involved.

    Took care of many of these people as they got older. Lots of valve replacements, lots of rhythm problems, and lots of heart failure. They had mostly all died before the age of 65,

    Thankfully, we do not see it in the Western world very often at all now.

     

Dagnarus

On the whole Myocarditis VAERS thing.

1) Israel puts case of heart inflammation in men aged 16-24 at 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000. It is very unlikely this will be different in the US. So the roughly 1 in 16000 figure suggested in the report is likely an undercount.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/israel-reports-link-between-rare-cases-heart-inflammation-and-covid-19-vaccination
2) Isn’t the data in VAERS supposed to be unreliable/poor quality/nothing to see here. Aren’t we supposed to be going off of V-SAFE data, which is so much better/more robust? If so, why are they using VAERS for the data in that report?
3) The report suggests the risk of severe adverse event increases by roughly a factor of 5 for the second shot compared to the first. If that pattern continues when you get your third/fourth booster shot, we are in trouble.

 
  1. Katniss Everdeen

    Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of mRNA vaccine technology, was interviewed last night by Tucker Carlson. Not msnbs, not cnn, not abc, cbs or nbc. Fox.

    Nutshell version: cdc / fda are “overwhelmed.” They don’t have the data they are acting like they have, and are waiting for other countries–Scandanavia and israel–to tell them what’s what. They are not collecting the data that would permit “informed” vaccine decisions.

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/6260748415001#sp=show-clips

    6+ minutes.

     
    1. Krystyn Podgajski

      Forget about VAERS. The medical community still has a hard time believing that patients have withdrawal symptoms from all sorts of psychiatric medications. They barely listen to the patients never mind gathering the data. It was only after seeing all these Internet forms pop up with people dealing with withdrawals and learning from each other how to get off of the medication’s did they start doing anything about it. Now that is some citizen science.

       
    2. Lemmy Caution

      According to the ACIP meeting yesterday, a lot of data is being gathered.

      Some of the collection mechanisms they listed include the VAERS system, the V-Safe system, the Department of Defense, Medicare, and a network of private insurance companies that cover 12 million people. There may be others in addition to the countries you named.

      Whether all of these systems “talk” to each other in a meaningful way when it comes to sharing date is unknown by me. Also unknown if the various collection points document and group data the same way.

      Malone said elsewhere that when you aren’t confident in the numerator or the denominator, what data you do gather in basically useless.

      His assessment that the FDA is “chaotic” and “overwhelmed” surely doesn’t improve the situation any.

       
      1. JTMcPhee

        So, a lot of those data streams are really being generated for money-making purposes, I would guess. Maybe the data “sharing” only goes one way, where the UNsurance companies are happy to receive what is gathered at public or others’ expense, and close the door to any outflows especially if they might intrude on the Narrative generation and the reaping of profits by such behaviors as kicking the vulnerable off the insurance rolls…

         
    3. KLG

      Many will agree that Robert Malone is correct about CDC and FDA. Bret Weinstein described Dr. Malone is the inventor or mRNA vaccines. Here he is described as the inventor of mRNA vaccine technology. Dr. Malone was involved in the earliest work that showed how to transfect mammalian cells with RNA (1989, with Inder Verma, who has an interesting recent history). Dr. Malone subsequently worked on the components of the lipid nanoparticle/RNA transfection reagent. More recently he has published a few papers on rapid response to emerging infectious disease. A 2013 paper (6th of 8 authors) is entitled “Making vaccines “on demand,'” but never mentions mRNA. The paper on Zika virus (2016, 1st of 13 authors) never mentions mRNA, either. IIRC the trials of the Zika mRNA vaccine never showed a positive result. Dr. Malone’s latest published work (2021) is on famotidine (Pepcid) as a drug that mitigates COVID-19 disease. This is part of the effort to repurpose drugs to fight the pandemic, which could well be the best approach to COVID-19. But it wouldn’t make Pfizer billions. And therein lies the neoliberal rub.

      mRNA vaccines have been either obvious or ingenious for 30 to 50 years, take your pick. The technologies for using RNA as a reagent or a therapeutic agent have been developed iteratively by a cast of thousands over that time. None of these, the technology or the vaccine, has a single inventor.

       
  2. IM Doc

    Just an anecdotal data point.

    I have now reported to the VAERS about a dozen complications related to the vaccines to VAERS.

    One of which was a death. 3 of which were other very significant medical issues known to be a problem with these vaccines with all 3 landing in the hospital. All 3 are currently fine. The other 8 are concerning issues that may or may not have a thing to do with the vaccines – and clearly stated in the VAERS reports I filed. It was all about the timing.

    In years past – as a board-certified Internist – I would have been contacted before the day was over by a practitioner to discuss the death and the 3 hospitalizations. When I was at the big academic center I worked with recently approved pharma stuff all the time – so this happened often enough to be noticeable.

    Not a single one of the 12 reports has appeared on the VAERS website at all. I have only received initial confirmatory emails. I have not been called or contacted in any way regarding any of the hospitalizations. The one death did generate a call requesting medical records – at which time I was informed that the “intake manager” felt that it had nothing to do with the vaccines at all.

    Not another peep has occurred. They are either completely underfunded, totally overwhelmed, or purposely spiking reports. I can come to no other conclusion.

    I have called my Rep and 2 Sen offices and have been kindly told that they do not get involved in medical issues.

     
    1. JBird4049

      Do not get involved in medical issues? Restated, they do not want to do their jobs, which is representing the people in their district, serving and helping them. What jackasses. If you can give them a generous bribe consideration donation, maybe they will deign to do so.

       
      1. IM Doc

        No – the confirmation email had a number – but it is not the official database number that goes in the VAERS –
        I have been looking once a week – none of them have showed up.

        They did not call me about the death report until an entire 6 weeks or so had passed.

  1. Raymond Sim

    Hypothesis: The emergence of mucormycosis as a complication of Covid-19 represents severe immunodeficiency induced by repeated reinfection with SARS-CoV-2.

    Is this not the Occam’s razor best candidate?

     
    1. IM Doc

      Since the first reports started coming out about this, it is very clear that something very strange is going on.

      The organism causing Mucormycosis is actually everywhere. We as humans are likely exposed daily, the dose depending on where you are in the world and your location’s climate. Normal immune hosts dispatch it immediately upon contact.

      The only times I have ever seen this problem are in severely immunosuppressed individuals. Most notably AIDS and diabetics with chronic A1c levels above 12.

      It is horrible. Unfixable by antifungals, it often requires drastic exculpatory extraction. It has a predilection for the sinuses and so that means the patient gets half their face cut out often with eyes included. It is very often fatal.

      The immunsuppression normally required for this to get started requires years to develop normally. Even in the chemo related scenarios months are required.

      As Dr McCoy would say Jim, This is damn peculiar.

      We are still in the very early learning phase with this virus. This is screaming to us something about how it involves our immune systems. It could be very important. Sometimes, these types of things are instrumental in the solutions and cures. It is just very unfortunate for the patients. Thankfully, it does not appear to be very common.

Wiliam Hunter Duncan

Is it just me or is it starting to feel like this is the beginning of the end of civilization as we have known it and humanity is going to be preoccupied with this thing for the next generation at least?
 

  1. IM Doc

    This is so far right on the script that many other pandemics have brought to the stage before.

    They are not necessarily the cause of the disruption – but they are what starts the dominos falling. They have a history of exposing all of society’s problems for all to see.

    This one has performed its task well.. We will see how bad the dominos falling is in the future compared to previous pandemics.

    I for one am not entirely sure this virus is yet done with humanity, but that which has already been unleashed has to play out as well.

thoughtful person

Based on CDC policy choices (no masks needed) the clear end plan is endemic spread, and annual (or biannual) booster shots.

This will likely mean a bit of a higher than normal fatality rate for the next few years, particularly among the 80+ cohorts and the unvaccinated 50+ (or younger depending on new variants for ex “delta+”?).

The drop in life expectancy, esp for lower income groups will continue…
 

That is of course assuming that people will be able to handle repeated mRNA vaccines. There is considerable doubt in my circles that will be possible. Each successive one brings on a stronger reaction. Sooner or later, the reactions are no longer minor.

All will be known soon enough.


  1. Mantid

    Good discussion, but two different “answers”. There is no “gloss on what the data tells us”, since neither article has the source data. Surowiecki proposes in a titter feed (no source documents) that here’s only “about” 50 infections in “fully” vaccinated people. The Business Insider quotes Chezy Levy, the director-general of Israel’s health ministry in saying “we are still checking how many vaccinated people have also been infected”. To me the implication is that there are vaccinated people getting the Delta variant (and presumably passing it on). Bad news since extrapolating either of these numbers out to the global population means a successful evolution on the part of the virus. And there are many variants to come. There is no “gloss” on the data since neither article supplies data, other than cursory. We will see what we will see.

     
  2. IM Doc

    I simply cannot stress this too many times.

    When articles in the media or twitter feeds are only talking in percentage terms, it is very often being severely manipulated. This has unfortunately been a Big Pharma hoodwinking tool for a long long time. It is much easier for our brains to work in the realm of percentage thinking than actual raw numbers.

    Since the beginning of this pandemic, percentage terms have been used by all sides to make very misleading assertions. This is likely no different. Although I am still poring over these articles right now.

    RAW NUMBERS PLEASE – and yet – I am not sure I have seen a raw numbers article or discussion since the very beginning outside of medical/epidemiological/statistical reports. They never exist in the mainstream press.

    I wonder why?

NVT

It has been posited that the common cold began as the 1889-1890 Russian flu that killed over 1 million people out of a population of 1.5 billion. https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/qa-why-history-suggests-covid-19-here-stay.html
Nicholas Christakis’ book Apollo’s Arrow is an entertaining and well-written book on epidemics through history, including the Russian flu and our current pandemic. He has a chapter discussing the Russian flu and its impact. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/books/review/apollos-arrow-coronavirus-nicholas-christakis.html

 
  1. Larry Y

    More accurately, one of the viruses that causes the “common cold” is thought to be behind the Russian or Asiatic Flu pandemic. Common cold may be cause by rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, and others.

    The suspect coronavirus behind that pandemic, OC43, has been shown to cause breakouts of pneumonia in recent decades. It is also known to infect neurons.

    My relatively uninformed guess of why it becomes less lethal is a form of the hygiene hypothesis. Children get repeated infections to these viruses, and build up partial lifetime protection to them. When the immune system gets compromised, that’s when the infections become deadlier.

     
  2. IM Doc

    The “common cold” is caused by multiple different viruses in multiple different families – rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, RSV viruses – and coronaviruses. You are referring to coronavirus OC43 – which is indeed almost assuredly the cause of the 1890s pandemic. That is but one of 4 coronaviruses circulating around the world yearly that cause the “cold”. There are multiple dozens of others in the other families.

    Even though they are in completely different families – and have completely different traits – there is one thing linking them all together – there really is no such thing as “herd immunity” – it simply does not exist in viruses that cause these types of illnesses. If there were, we would not have them year after year after year…….Why our citizenry is not being informed ( and even being deceived) of simple facts like this is just beyond me.

    Not all virus families act alike. Herd immunity is a foundational feature of things like measles and smallpox – it is basically a non-actor in respiratory viruses and influenza.

Mikel

I searched and you all don’t have a “WTH??? ” section for things like this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/study-finds-pfizer-and-moderna-covid-vaccines-may-offer-protection-for-years-as-australia-struggles-to-contain-delta-variant-11624892042?mod=home-page/
“The study, conducted by researchers at Washington University in St. Louis, suggests that people vaccinated with those shots may not need boosters, as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. It also found that people who have recovered from COVID before being vaccinated “produced the most robust serologic responses,” showing they enjoy a strong immune response….”

So protection will last for years if all the things that have already happened hadn’t happened already….

 
  1. IM Doc

    If this is referring to the same study I think it is – the N was 12. And it was not very well delineated what exactly some of their endpoint definitions were.

    Another big problem I have seen a lot of lately – extrapolating big assertions from in vitro studies in perfect conditions. This is not what the vaccines will be dealing with in the real world.

    I saw this same amazing headline the past few days – from articles like this – and the NYT – and immediately called my virologist friend – IS THIS REALLY THE CASE? – answer – a big meh. Maybe – but not a very comprehensive study in his opinion.

    I hope beyond hope it is true – but the tell in your above quote is the following – as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. That is a very big if – and really negates the fireworks of the headlines in my opinion.

    Having these kinds of things litigated in the mainstream media in my opinion is doing far more harm than good. This is medical science – everything at this point is a hypothesis – and the way many of these articles are framed makes a non-informed reader feel certainty.

Lemmy Caution

The Hill article “Researchers pinpoint possible signs you have Covid-19 after being vaccinated,” uncritically repeats the tired CDC talking point that

“Less than 1 in 10,000 people so far have experienced a “breakthrough case” in the United States…”

The link included to support that assertion leads to the Harvard Health Publishing article “Should we track all breakthrough cases of Covid-19?” In that article, the author writes,

“More than 10,000 of these so-called breakthrough cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the US. Seems like a large number, right? But keep in mind that nearly 133 million people have been vaccinated, so these breakthrough cases represent less than one in 10,000. “

This is flat out wrong however; the CDC report states quite clearly that the number of breakthrough cases in the period of the study was 10,000 out of 101,000,000 fully vaccinated people – not 130,000,000 people.

So claiming that the breakthrough rate is less than one on 10,000 is wrong.

Even saying that the breakthrough rate is 1 in 10,000 is a stretch – the CDC acknowledges in the same report that the 10,000 breakthrough case number is likely an undercount.

If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,0000 fully vaccinated people.

But according to another CDC study involving healthcare workers, first responders and other essential workers, the breakthrough rate was about 90 per 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

So now the rate of breakthrough cases varies from .01% (as claimed in the Hill article), to .1% (the Massachusetts report) all the way to 9% (the CDC essential worker study).

Instead of mindlessly repeating CDC talking points, the media should be doing more to shed light on realistic breakthrough rates and which groups are especially at risk.

 
  1. Lemmy Caution

    Correction — The sentence above should read:

    If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

     
  2. voislav

    People keep forgetting that vaccine effectiveness is 95% at best, most vaccines are in 80-90% range. That means that at least 5% (more like 10-20%) of vaccinated people did not develop full immunity. Breakthrough infections are not a surprise as we are in the middle of the pandemic and there is ample opportunity to get infected.

    Even 9% number from the CDC essential worker survey is very realistic, this is a group that has high level of exposure to potentially infected people, so it’s very likely to get infected if they didn’t develop immunity.

    So none of this is surprising, this is a very different situation from other vaccines where you preemptively vaccinate the population to prevent the spread of the disease. In that case the disease has to spread through a largely vaccinated populace, so typically the probability of infection is very low. Here we are dealing with vaccinating for a virus that’s already widespread, it’s a very different mechanism.

     
    1. IM Doc

      The 95% number I believe you are quoting is from the original Pfizer study from December.

      The “most other vaccines are in 80-90% range” – I am not certain what you are talking about. It depends on what exact parameter to which you are referring. When making comparisons like that , it is essential to compare apples to apples – and not apples to oranges. For example, the 60% flu shot number often discussed every year – is not at all the same parameter as the 95% RRR in case numbers in the Pfizer study for their COVID vaccine.

      That Pfizer number is a relative risk reduction – (NOT absolute risk reduction). Relative and absolute risk reduction mean two completely different things. The issue is that RRR of 95% does not in any way imply a blanket 95% protection. This is not what that number means, especially in trials like the original Pfizer trial, where the vast majority of patients in both the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups remained negative throughout the whole study.

      However, our media has gone out of its way to make certain though that every American thinks that. Big Pharma uses these RRR numbers in their ads and glossies all the time – because in general they look really good to people who do not marinate themselves in medical statistics every day.

      We should also remember that historically in vaccine research, the risk reduction in case numbers was not a leading indicator of efficacy of the vaccine. Rather, mortality efficacy, morbidity efficacy, and pathogen transmission rates were far more important – and critical to be done before approval was even considered. We have a bit more info about these critical parameters than we did in December but not much.

      What I am saying is that this 95% number should in no way be being used in the way you are thinking about it – nor should the RRR be being used in the way the CDC or the vast majority of the media are using it in their reporting. It just does not mean what people think it does. And the case number reduction rate is only a very minor point in the actual efficacy of a vaccine.

       

IM doc pt20

Nov. 2nd, 2021 04:24 pm
temporaryreality: (Default)
The long, continuing series of comments from IM Doc at the naked capitalism site... this first feature just mentions him and references an email he shared with one of the site's writers.

From Tragedy to Hesitancy: How Public Health Failures Boosted COVID-19 Vaccine Scepticism

Yves here. This post confirms what IM Doc has been saying for some time. For instance, via e-mail in April:

As a young child, I saw my father [a public health officer] struggle through the Swine Flu of 1976 and the vaccine debacle that accompanied that era.

As I grew older, and especially once I entered medicine, he had several heart-to-heart talks with me about a career in Medicine and by extension public health. I can summarize what he told me in two large thrusts. 1) Integrity, truth, and honesty is EVERYTHING in public pealth. Once squandered, it will never return. 2) Public health is 10% science and 90% psychology. Do not ever forget that. You will get nowhere by screaming SCIENCE SCIENCE SCIENCE and you will certainly get nowhere by flashing credentials. And you must have an acute awareness of panic, fear and anxiety. They change everything and your response must always take that into account.

Here, initial Covid failures and the elite pretense that they could just carry on as if that were a thing of the past, as opposed to admit to the errors and discuss how they planned to do better going forward, has exacted a price in terms of trust, as this post below explains.

By Geraldine Blanchard-Rohner, Senior Pediatrician and Immunologist, University Hospital Geneva; Bruno Caprettini,SNF Ambizione Fellow, Department of Economics, University of Zurich; Dominic Rohner, Professor of Economics, University of Lausanne; CEPR Research Fellow; and Hans-Joachim Voth, UBS Professor of Macroeconomics and Financial Markets, Department of Economics, Zurich University. Originally published at VoxEU

As COVID-19 vaccination programmes accelerate across the industrialised world, vaccination hesitancy is rapidly emerging as a key challenge. This column explores the relationship between pre-pandemic intensive care unit capacity and attitudes towards the COVID-19 vaccine in the UK. Despite widespread pre-pandemic scepticism about vaccines in general, willingness to become vaccinated against COVID-19 overall was strikingly high, even amongst those who rejected vaccines before the pandemic. The results point to a surprising synergy: where the emergency care systems of public healthcare providers were less strained during the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic, vaccination hesitancy is systematically less today.

Since February 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has cost millions of lives and has affected almost every aspect of economic, social, and cultural life – from stock markets to inflation, schooling, inequality, and the gender division of labour, to name but a few (Yeyati and Filippini 2021, Burgess and Sievertsen 2020, Baldwin and Weder di Mauro 2020, Capelle-Blancard and Desroziers 2020, Sevilla and Smith 2020). Infection rates surged around the globe, and medical systems came under increasing strain.

In recent months, vaccination programmes have accelerated across the industrialised world. With supply problems increasingly solved, vaccination hesitancy is rapidly emerging as a key challenge on the path to herd immunity (Troiano and Nardi 2021, Dror et al. 2020). Given the high infectiousness of new variants, vaccine take-up amongst adults will have to reach particularly high levels for COVID-19 to be brought under control.

Our new study offers novel lessons about the drivers of vaccine hesitancy (Blanchard-Rohner et al. 2021). A previously overlooked factor can be crucial, namely, the efficiency and success of public healthcare provision during the pandemic. When the pandemic first broke out, intensive care units (ICUs) in many countries and regions were quickly overwhelmed, resulting in high mortality rates.

Using newly collected survey data from the UK, we show that success in providing emergency care during the dramatic initial phase of the pandemic is a powerful predictor of people’s readiness to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Where the NHS was quickly overwhelmed, with overcrowded ICUs and high COVID-19 fatality rates, the willingness to become vaccinated is markedly lower.

Our findings suggest that there is an important, neglected synergy between an effective healthcare response in the early phases of a pandemic and the public’s trust and willingness to use novel treatments like the new COVID-19 vaccines.

We conducted two waves of interviews about vaccination attitudes in a nationally representative sample in the UK – in the autumn of 2019, before the pandemic; and in April 2020, during the first wave. We interviewed the same respondents, which allowed us to track changes in attitudes over time. These changes we then correlate with the quality and effectiveness of emergency care in different areas of the UK. In total, we had 1,653 respondents in the first wave, of which 1,194 participated in the second wave.

Respondents included a sizeable share of vaccine ‘hesitants’ and respondents who outright reject vaccinations – participants who in the fall of 2009 had declared that it was better for children not to receive vaccines, or that vaccines cause severe adverse effects including autism. We estimate that 12% of respondents reject vaccinations altogether and another 36% are sceptical. Only 52% of participants were strongly positive about the effects of vaccines in general prior to the pandemic.

Despite this widespread vaccination scepticism, willingness to become vaccinated against COVID-19 overall was strikingly high – some 85% of study participants said that they were definitely or probably willing to become vaccinated. Remarkably, even amongst those who reject vaccines or are hesitant, 55–81% are willing to participate in COVID-19 vaccinations (Figure 1).

Figure 1 COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and general vaccine attitudes

Source: Blanchard-Rohner et al. (2021)
Notes: The figure shows responses to the question: “If a vaccine against COVID-19 became available for everyone tomorrow, do you think you would or would not get vaccinated?” The bar on the left reports the breakdown for all respondents of the April 2020 survey (N = 1194). The other 3 columns report the breakdown for three categories of respondents: “no vax” (N = 148), “hesitants” (N = 431) and “pro vac” (N = 615). We assign respondents to one of these categories using ther answers to the question on general vaccination attitudes. See Section S.2 in the Supplementary Materials for details on the construction of these categories.

Several interpretations of this fact are possible. Vaccination sceptics may feel that most diseases against which vaccines are routinely used are not terribly harmful; faced with a potentially deadly illness, they change their mind. Alternatively, sceptics may have updated their beliefs in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 24/7 media coverage of the disease, its consequences, and the need for a vaccine.

Our second main finding involves the role of public health provision. Before the arrival of vaccines, the availability of ICU capacity was a key determinant of mortality – where intensive care beds were missing, death rates spiked. We exploit the fact that various areas of England had different pre-COVID-19 levels of ICU coverage. This, in turn, meant that NHS hospitals in some areas ‘ran out of road’ much faster than others once the pandemic hit.

When we examine simple correlations, we find that low ICU capacity during the first wave of the pandemic is associated with lower vaccination willingness. This is not a result of pre-existing attitudes but a direct consequence of how vaccination hesitancy changed during the pandemic.

Panel A of Figure 2 plots vaccine hesitancy against ICU occupancy rates in February 2020, before the UK saw its first major spike in cases. The higher pre-crisis capacity usage, the greater hesitancy was by April 2020. In other words, where exogenous variation in ICU demand pre-epidemic had reduced spare capacity in ICU units, the pandemic struck harder.

Figure 2 ICU availability, perceived risk and unwillingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19

Source: Blanchard-Rohner et al. (2021)

This failure to provide effective support was not a result of structural under-provision in certain areas. No such pattern is visible if we use, say, ICU occupancy half a year earlier (October 2019), strengthening the case for a causal interpretation of our finding. Figure 3 gives an impression of the variation in ICU occupancy across Britain on the eve of the pandemic’s first wave, in February 2020.

Panel B of Figure 2 shows the same exercise for different groups, and after controlling for observables. We find positive effects throughout. The analogous pattern is visible if we use the number of ICU beds per 1,000 inhabitants as an indicator of public health resources.

Figure 3 Variation in ICU occupation across Britain in February 2020

Source: Using data from Blanchard-Rohner et al. (2021).

Policy Implications

At first pass, many observers could think that public health resources like ICU capacity and vaccination campaigns are substitutes – countries with high capacity to deal with severe cases might be able to cope with lower rates of vaccination take-up. However, our results point to a surprising synergy: where the emergency care systems of public healthcare providers were less strained during the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic, vaccination hesitancy is systematically less today.

While generally high rates of support for vaccination make it more likely that herd immunity can be reached, our findings suggest that generous provision of spare emergency capacity can generate additional benefits, in the form of the public’s greater willingness to become vaccinated.

See original post for references

Carla

This link to a fascinating interview with Pierre Kory, M.D. has been posted on NC already. Since it’s a 2-1/2 hour video, for those who don’t have time to watch the whole thing, I repeat the link here to call attention to a portion of it starting just after the 59 minute mark in which Kory describes the test-and-treat protocol using ivermectin in Mexico. Truly impressive:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn_b4NRTB6k

  1. IM Doc

    I have just finished listening to this entire presentation.

    It reminded me of what the science of medicine was when I was younger. I really long for those days. When medicine was not controlled by desk jockeys in Boston and DC – but was under the command of the shock troops on the ground.

    I think this is very important for us all to llsten to. I would especially recommend the first 30 miinutes or so. A very piercing discussion of the entire concept of “evidence-based” medicine and how the use of that “science” is largely responsible for the mess we are in today.

    Basically, the use of algorithms that are now required by the corporate overlords vs. the experience that comes from a lifetime of medicine. I would call it the art vs. the science of medicine. But, as this discussion demonstrates – there is often not a lot of science in what we call “evidence-based” medicine these days.

    “Evidence-based” medicine sounds wonderful. In real-life experience, it is anything but. It has become a system of manipulated data and evidence used so practitioners can be more easily turned into drones by Big Hospital, Big Pharma, and Big Medicine.

a discussion about understanding statistics that get shared with the public (and the way percentages manipulate information):

  1. Laura in So Cal

    On this:
    “WA: “Almost all new COVID cases in King Co. are from unvaccinated people, experts say” [KOMO]. “The good news: cases and hospitalizations are dramatically down since the peak of the 4th wave in late April. The bad news: 97% of the new Covid-19 cases—are coming from unvaccinated people.””

    I’m not sure you can trust this kind of data anymore with the updated guidance from the CDC as of May 1st.

    From the CDC website:

    https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

    “As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance.”

    So if someone is vaccinated and tests positive, they aren’t counted as a COVID case unless they are hospitalized or die. You will only have 2 kinds of COVID cases. 1. Any positive test from an unvaccinated person or 2. A vaccinated person who is hospitalized or dies which should be unusual if the vaccines work as advertised.

    1. Lemmy Caution

      Right — the CDC is leaving it up to the states to decide whether or not they test and track vaccinated people who come down with mild or asymptomatic Covid. And the KOMO article never defines what constitutes a new case among unvaccinated people. Is it just people that are hospitalized or die, or does it also include asymptomatic and mild cases? Are we comparing apples to apples or what? Another fine example of at best, sloppy reporting. At the worst? Fitting the facts around a desired narrative.

    2. t

      Thank you for pointing this out. The US insistence of redefining “pandemic” at every turn…. that’s the one weird trick that really did us in.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Not just the US. Last year when the Coronavirus was starting to rage, not only did the WHO refuse to call it a pandemic, but they actually removed the word ‘pandemic’ from their official lexicon that they used. Several weeks later they re-instated it and then came out and called it a pandemic but that was nothing short of criminal behaviour that. Totally unforgivable.

    3. Lemmy Caution

      The article never comes out and says what the actual number of new cases is either.

      Looking at the King County Covid Dashboard, yesterday, June 2, there were no new hospitalizations and no new deaths.

      The 7-day averages of both hospitalizations and deaths are also rapidly falling: Hospitalizations dropping from 9 or 10 per day on 5/27 to zero yesterday and the 7-day average for deaths at about .6.

      Not to say new cases aren’t worrisome, but the article leaves out a lot of facts.

    4. IM Doc

      I am also always on the lookout for manipulation when any statistical information in presented as a percentage. (a 97% drop, etc). That is how statistics can be easily manipulated.

      Please note – this article and many others does exactly that. I would feel much better if just plain raw numbers were reported.

      Look through the ads of any Big Pharma marketing campaign. You will note instantly that everything is reported in %. There is a reason for that.

  1. Laura in So Cal

    On this:
    “WA: “Almost all new COVID cases in King Co. are from unvaccinated people, experts say” [KOMO]. “The good news: cases and hospitalizations are dramatically down since the peak of the 4th wave in late April. The bad news: 97% of the new Covid-19 cases—are coming from unvaccinated people.””

    I’m not sure you can trust this kind of data anymore with the updated guidance from the CDC as of May 1st.

    From the CDC website:

    https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

    “As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance.”

    So if someone is vaccinated and tests positive, they aren’t counted as a COVID case unless they are hospitalized or die. You will only have 2 kinds of COVID cases. 1. Any positive test from an unvaccinated person or 2. A vaccinated person who is hospitalized or dies which should be unusual if the vaccines work as advertised.

    1. Lemmy Caution

      Right — the CDC is leaving it up to the states to decide whether or not they test and track vaccinated people who come down with mild or asymptomatic Covid. And the KOMO article never defines what constitutes a new case among unvaccinated people. Is it just people that are hospitalized or die, or does it also include asymptomatic and mild cases? Are we comparing apples to apples or what? Another fine example of at best, sloppy reporting. At the worst? Fitting the facts around a desired narrative.


      1. The Rev Kev

        Not just the US. Last year when the Coronavirus was starting to rage, not only did the WHO refuse to call it a pandemic, but they actually removed the word ‘pandemic’ from their official lexicon that they used. Several weeks later they re-instated it and then came out and called it a pandemic but that was nothing short of criminal behaviour that. Totally unforgivable.

    2. Lemmy Caution

      The article never comes out and says what the actual number of new cases is either.

      Looking at the King County Covid Dashboard, yesterday, June 2, there were no new hospitalizations and no new deaths.

      The 7-day averages of both hospitalizations and deaths are also rapidly falling: Hospitalizations dropping from 9 or 10 per day on 5/27 to zero yesterday and the 7-day average for deaths at about .6.

      Not to say new cases aren’t worrisome, but the article leaves out a lot of facts.

    3. IM Doc

      I am also always on the lookout for manipulation when any statistical information in presented as a percentage. (a 97% drop, etc). That is how statistics can be easily manipulated.

      Please note – this article and many others does exactly that. I would feel much better if just plain raw numbers were reported.

      Look through the ads of any Big Pharma marketing campaign. You will note instantly that everything is reported in %. There is a reason for that.

TMR

Re: uptick in Texas – it’s A/C season. Buildings have been designed for the past 50 years to have as much recirculating air as possible (to keep electricity costs down). Businesses are certainly not going to retrofit without a mandate, and the state government won’t be doing that any time soon.

You can see the wave of last summer start at nearly the same time.

IM Doc

Yes – I just looked at the admittedly scattered data from last summer. Remember the first big surge went through the mid-South states like TX, OK, KS and ARK in the summer.

The day of the first noticeable uptick in Texas in 2020 – was actually June the 13th – led by Harris County (Houston) and Bexar County (San Antonio). But we must realize the uptick in 2020 was from a much higher baseline of case numbers. I do not know what counties are involved in this uptick now.

It appears that we are right on time – and it will also be very interesting to see how this goes over the next few weeks. In 2020 – slight upticks in June led to big case numbers in AUG and SEPT in Texas and OK.

As I have been saying all along – the real test for the vaccines is coming. We should hold our breath and cross our fingers. Another factor is there is absolutely much more natural immunity in the population right now – so there is likely to be much less of explosive parabolic increases in case numbers. It would also be very interesting to note a) if these case increases right now are variants and if so which ones and b) what is the rate of occurrence in vaccinated vs non-vaccinated and c) how symptomatic are the patients if at all – Alas, the CDC and health departments are doing absolutely no surveillance like this at all.

Only time will tell.

---------

RE: ESCAPING INTO BRITISH HUMOR IS THE PERFECT BALM Crime Reads. I adore Wodehouse, not only for the laughs and the madcap plots but also for his limpid prose.

IM Doc says:

IM Doc

A few thoughts on the links today –

First – on the very first one about Wodehouse and Jerome – there is this quote at the very end of the article:

I’ll end with some timely advice from Jerome K. Jerome: “Eat good dinners and drink good wine; read good novels if you have the leisure and see good plays; fall in love, if there is no reason why you should not fall in love; but do not pore over influenza statistics.”

That one made me do a lot of self reflection on this Friday AM.

On to the link about the 226 myocarditis patients so far in the USA.

With phrases like “fully recovered” in the CDC press statements – I can feel and sense the coverup from Big Pharma and their captivated agencies already happening.

I have been an internist for 3 decades – I would like to share with everyone my experience with myocarditis patients to make sure there is clarity – this is not going to be a one and done kind of thing – this will be with us for some time.

When I was young, the patients of the pre-antibiotic era were just becoming elderly. During their youth, there were bacterial infections that rather commonly affected the heart valves, the pericardium, or the heart muscle itself – either the bug itself or the inflammation. These issues are unheard of today with antibiotics but it was not unusual then. I got to be involved in the tail end of that lifelong process for several patients – these patients were not well – they suffered from heart failure symptoms, valve failure and pericardial issues for their whole life – not to mention the spectre of rhythm problems at any time.

The point being – once the heart is infected or inflamed like this, it is scarred – and that is for life. Almost all of them will eventually have heart failure, rhythm problems or both. And it may take decades to develop.

I am afraid this vaccine phenomenon will be no different. I have seen several patients in my life with post-partum myocarditis – thought to be an immune issue – and I have seen several with lupus and other inflammatory issues. Actual viral or vaccine related myocarditis is vanishingly rare – and I want to reiterate that to the heavens. This occurrence we are seeing now is absolutely related to something the vaccine is doing to our young men – we just do not know what it is happening yet.

Big Pharma will tell us they have “fully recovered”. THIS IS A LIE. These patients never fully recover. Their athletic abilities will be diminished. Many will face a middle age filled with heart failure and rhythm problems. I am going to predict right now that we as a country are going to see an uptick in “athletes dropping dead on the football field” issues over the next 10 years. The Big Pharma marketers are in overdrive right now trying to minimize this. I feel it is my obligation to inform people the best way I know.

The CDC is reporting only 226 cases – please note – that this is just in the 18 and ups that have already been vaccinated. These do not represent the cases in teenagers which we just started vaccinating in the past month. These are only the 20 and 30 something young men over the past 2 months. My old academic center in a major metro area – has had dozens of cases already. I bring that up because if you multiply that out for the whole USA – there are assuredly way more than 226. This is a reflection of our broken reporting system.

More troubling to me – I READ ABOUT THIS PROBLEM FROM ISRAEL 2 months ago. IF I READ ABOUT, YOU CAN BE ASSURED THE CDC and FDA KNEW ALL ABOUT IT. AND YET NOT A THING WAS DONE – NOT A WORD SAID. The corruption, dissembling and lies are just simply breathtaking.

The CDC has described this as an “emergency” meeting. Indeed – if it is truly being dealt with as an “emergency” – their asses should be in session today – but yet – we are waiting for an entire week.

There is every indication that the younger we go – the more likely this will happen. It occurs after the 2nd dose. And we are just now 5 days into the 2nd dose for the 12-15 years age cohort. I just checked – there are already SEVEN cases of heart issues in the VAERS for this age group.

Folks, this is as concerning as it gets. From my very first guest post in December – I discussed unforeseen problems and how the vaccines had not been tested. More concerning, I discussed the complete corruption of the members of the FDA advisory committee. They truly are in the pockets of Big Pharma.

The numbers simply do not make sense for anyone under 20 to be vaccinated until we have much better information. This is ESPECIALLY TRUE of those who already have had COVID or positive antibodies. Increasingly, research is showing they are just as protected in that status as with the vaccines.

These universities that are forcing this on these kids are literally playing with fire. As of this week, I have been warning anybody in that age group as patients and any parents NOT to take the vaccine at this time. My profession must begin behaving in the interest of the patients and not Big Pharma or all will be lost.

    1. Yves Smith

      Short version from IM Doc:

      Yes – this is a method which coronaviruses – use to become more successful. This is also common in many other virus families.

      KLG provided more comprehensive take:

      Supercells? Nothing new here. Many viruses cause the formation of multinucleate syncytia. The mechanism can be summarized as follows:

      During infection and subsequent intracellular replication and assembly of the virus, viral proteins are produced in the host cell.
      Some of these are viral envelope (membrane) glycoproteins; these can be fusion proteins that mediate the interaction of intact virus with target cells. Not all of these proteins end up in mature virus particles. Some are trafficked to the plasma membrane of the host cell in the normal pathway (endoplasmic reticulum, Golgi, trans-Golgi network, plasma membrane). Two adjacent cells with virus fusion proteins on their surface can fuse through the interaction of these proteins. As virus is produced in these and other cells, more and more cells can fuse and form multinucleated giant syncitia).
      This is not novel to coronaviruses. Sometimes these syncytia can facilitate spread of the virus from cell to cell.

      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0042682206000626?via%3Dihub
      Good illustration in Figure 7.

      And GM:

      Yes, this is a key mechanism of pathogenesis, higher infecitivtiy and of immune evasion.

      It is also the key mutation in the Indian variants – B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2, and B.1.617.3, of which B.1.617.2 happens to have the most optimal set of additional mutations to make it supercontagious.

      The virus is not after our cells, it is after our ribosomes and NTP pools. There is no requirement for it to infect our cells one by one to get to those ribosomes and NTP pools, if it had a way to spread without going through the traditional pathway of making viral particles in one cell that then infect other cells, it could exploit that.

      And since this is a virus that has a lipid membrane, it has such a way — the infected cells have the S protein on the surface, the same way it is on the surface of the virus, and it can mediate fusion with neighboring cells that have the ACE2 receptor.

      And then both cells are under the control of the virus. But it does not end with one cell — you can agglomerate hundreds of cells that way.

      What happened in the Indian variants is that the polybasic furin-cleavage site gained an extra arginine R and became even more basic — that’s the P681R mutation (it’s right before the 4-aa FCS, which is now a 5-aa FCS). This, BTW, had been kind of already seen in the British B.1.1.7 — it had a P681H mutation, and histidine is also a basic amino acid, but arginine is even more basic. So now syncitium formation is greatly enhanced. This was the key result of the first preprint studying B.1.617.2 back in late April and the grave implications were immediately obvious.

      One of which was that this could be immune evasive even if it did not have the RBD mutations. Because antibodies will not do much against syncitium spread. And indeed, there was another preprint recently that studied this directly, and that is what is observed — antibodies are powerless against syncitia.

      Another is that this will be much more harmful — wherever this infects, it will make syncitia, occasionally merging even different cell types and wreaking total havoc on organs through severe cellular damage.

      Yet another is that this should be wrecking the immune system even more than the original virus was already doing — what probably happens (it has not been fully demonstrated yet but there are strong indications in that direction) is that lymphocytes arrive at the site of infection and then get engulfed by the syncitia, and die inside them. The mucormycosis cases in India are explained right now by the virus attacking beta cells in the pancreas, leading to diabetes, and that is probably indeed a strong component, but one can’t help but think that there has to be stronger direct immune deficiency induced by the virus itself because not everyone that shows up with a fungus eating his face is diabetic.

One peach of a comment

fumo

The details given by Hancock last week were out of a sample of roughly 120 patients, only 3 had been double jabbed. The main US/EU approved vaccines are all remarkably effective, I’m not sure where the factual basis for all the consternation about vaccine efficacy is being hidden but I can’t find it. There is no significant number of cases of previously healthy double-jabbed patients being hospitalized, as much as the ideologically “vaccine skeptical/hesitant” may want to believe otherwise.

Vaccination is the only path out of the pandemic, any other path will inevitably leave the population exposed and vulnerable to wave after wave ad infinitum.

got this response from IM Doc

IM Doc

I have multiple problems with your statement above.

First and foremost, in medical history – vaccinations are not the only way out of a pandemic. This is very faulty Big Pharma Claptrap. And conflating vaccine histories in different virus families with different pathogenesis is really not a good approach. Even with the POLIO vaccines – it took almost a decade before Dr. Salk proclaimed victory – and that was after many more hundreds of thousands had been maimed or killed. And please note polio is still around and actually making a small comeback – DESPITE the massive worldwide vaccination drives.

Smallpox, measles and polio ( our big success stories with vaccines) are very different from coronaviruses – and generalizing statements about “vaccinating out of a pandemic” should never be made. It is literally apples and oranges. Ask any veterinarian how successful vaccination has been on animal coronavirus pandemics – and you may begin to play a different tune. Maybe this technology is different maybe not – but it is impossible to tell when the authorities are not even counting cases correctly. And it is inappropriately early to be making such statements.

Secondly, I, as a PCP, have now lost count of how many completely vaccinated patiients in the past few weeks/months have been positive for COVID after their vaccines. They are just no longer being counted. How convenient. And this is the way it is being presented in the media – no matter how wrong-headed it is. It is very clear to me here on the ground that these vaccines do not provide sterilizing immunity as the majority of our others do. What that means going forward we will soon find out. But doing victory laps at this stage of the game is almost imbecile. As to your hospitalization point, just like last summer, here in my local area – we are starting to see a drip drip drip of COVID hospitalizations – and though small in number – every single one last week was fully vaccinated. We are already seeing in some parts of the country – looking right at southern Texas – that vaccinated patients are indeed being hospitalized. And it happens to be going on in the UK at a very surprising rate. Indeed, if one looks closely at the numbers coming out of the UK – the VACCINATED have a higher chance of dying right now, even though the death rate is very very low.

I have stated repeatedly – and will state again. The real test for these vaccines is coming up in the next few months. As “vaccinated” Chile is finding out right now – the winter is really harsh – and if we can get through the fall and winter months here in America without a huge surge – then I will feel much more confidently that the vaccines have worked. Until that time – I believe strongly that end zone dancing is completely inappropriate

Katniss Everdeen

RE: A judge dismisses Houston hospital workers’ lawsuit about vaccine mandates. NYT

Didn’t want to sign up so read the hill instead: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/558173-judge-dismisses-staff-lawsuit-against-houston-methodist-vaccine-mandate?rl=1

The suit further alleged that the vaccines were experimental and dangerous and that being forced to get vaccinated violated federal law.

In a five-page order on Saturday, Hughes largely debunked the plaintiff’s arguments. But the judge specifically blasted the plaintiffs for equating the vaccine mandate to forced experimentation during the Holocaust.

So, we have our first taste of how “the courts” will treat the EUA. They will ignore it.

Once again, from the fda itself, with gusto:

FDA must ensure that recipients of the vaccine under an EUA are informed, to the extent practicable given the applicable circumstances, that FDA has authorized the emergency use of the vaccine, of the known and potential benefits and risks, the extent to which such benefits and risks are unknown, that they have the option to accept or refuse the vaccine, and of any available alternatives to the product. Typically, this information is communicated in a patient “fact sheet.” The FDA posts these fact sheets on our website.

I’ve no idea why the plaintiffs gave the judge a holocaust strawman to “debunk,” but apparently they did. This particular article made no mention of whether the judge “debunked” the EUA statute itself, but I guess it’s somewhere in the ground covered by the word “largely.”

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained

  1. Yves Smith

    This is really appalling. I had mistakenly and incorrectly been confident that the clear “voluntary” language in the EUA and past rulings would have made this a no-brainer for the courts. But the EEO backing this is a big factor, at least for some judges, who tend to feel the Executive needs to be given at least a certain amount of deference.

    Other problem is I have seen a lot of anti-vax suits. They have been horrible horrible horrible. Most first year law students could make a better case. They tend to make political arguments and not focus enough (or at all!) on legal issues. The Holocaust overreach/distraction is very typical for that crowd.

    So I bet a contributing factor is they were referred to an anti-vax lawyer, which would lead to additional prejudice by the judge (as in the plaintiff had a stealth or explicit anti-vax agenda, or that was inferred through their choice of counsel, and also colored how the judge viewed the case. Even if the filing presented the plaintiff as vaccine-supporting for established vaccines, the judge could have read it as the anti-vaxxers finding a sympathetic plaintiff to advance their agenda).

    1. Laura in So Cal

      What also bothers me is the employers refusal to accept any liability for this. I saw some language from OSHA that initially said that vaccine side effects etc. would be considered a workplace injury if the vaccine was a job requirements (and theoretically covered by Workers Compensation), but I think this was walked back?

      https://www.natlawreview.com/article/osha-revokes-guidance-recordability-covid-19-vaccine-reactions

      I think the same thing should be true of colleges, etc. If they require an EUA vaccine for admission, they should be on the hook for the costs of injury, disability, and/or death associated with the vaccines. But they aren’t of course.

    2. Aumua

      It looks like separating politically driven anti-vax sentiments from legitimate concerns about the safety and/or efficacy of the COVID vaccines is going to become increasingly difficult. There’s a lot of gray area and uncertainty right now on this topic, which is just the kind of opening that the far right anti-vax movement is looking for to effectively infiltrate the discussion space and push their agendas.

    3. Katniss Everdeen

      I shared your confidence. The statute is crystal clear. I thought the fda would at least concoct some sort of justification for grandfathering in the vaccines for “approval,” at least the mRNA ones, to preserve some semblance of legitimacy.

      Surely this will not stand on appeal, but I hope the plaintiffs get better representation next time–someone who knows how to narrow the issue and drop any extraneous agenda.

      This is really far to important to be left to amateurs.

    4. IM Doc

      This is from Texas – maybe that is part of the problem.

      Texas agencies and courts have a very long tradition of siding with the big hospital systems and bad doctors no matter how insane it is to do so.

      For example, the Dr. Death case – where it is crystal clear that the ball was egregiously dropped by the Baylor Health System in Dallas ( they could have stopped him in the tracks, instead they allowed him to get privileges at other hospitals by not spilling the beans, thinking they would be sued if they did). The AG of Texas prevented any of the dozens of patients from suing Baylor.

      That is just one example – I could go on and on and on.

      The courts and agencies in Texas are very very protective of the big hospital systems – no matter how egregious is the problem.

      I wonder if this would be any different in another state? I feel in my gut that Texas may not have been the best proving ground for this kind of case.

Vaccine Refusal in Trump Country Makes It a Sitting Duck for COVID Delta Variant Truthout

IM Doc

The truth out article above about Trump states being sitting ducks for Covid is highly inappropriate and verges on revenge porn.

I will reiterate again. I have just as many blue liberal folks in my world that are vaccine hesitant as I do red folks.

And fun fact – the past two weeks in my own practice, every single positive covid patient has been vaccinated. I have not had a single unvaccinated positive patient.

The testing and surveillance system for Covid has been recently turned into a big joke by the CDC and our health agencies. They are doing zero contact tracing on anyone who is vaccinated so who even knows what the numbers are and how well the vaccines are working. The jabs work so well and it is all so obvious that we are not going to even try.

The underlying concern for anyone with the will to be unbiased is that it for us out here in flyover country these vaccines are looking more and more everyday like they are Non Sterilizing. They make people less sick (we will soon see how long that lasts) but are not real good at stopping transmission. That is now obvious to me and many others. The numbers and patterns in our own patient cohorts are just too obvious. That pattern comes with its own set of issues and not a thing is being done about it at all. Again, we are not even trying.

Well as my grandma used to say – pride goeth before a fall. I can do what I can do in my own world. I continue to hope like everyone else that this is all going to work out well. And hopefully it will.

In the meantime, Someone really must tell these truthout types that they are writing based on profoundly tinkered data and coming to conclusions to please their audience that in the end are the words of blithering imbeciles.


the thread continues... and then...

  1. bassmule

    I dunno. Whose revenge? Wait for a Summer of Trump-sponsored super-spreader events, and then see how you feel about scolding people.

    1. Katniss Everdeen

      “…a Summer of Trump-sponsored super-spreader events…”

      O. M. G.

      Forget “long covid,” this, and the link on which IM Doc commented is what “long TDS” looks like.

      From the nyt link “A Momentous Day”:

      …The two governors [Newsom and Cuomo], both Democrats who are facing political difficulties, made their announcements at events that seemed more like rallies than news conferences.

      President Biden will host a 1,000 person gathering on July 4 on the South Lawn of the White House to celebrate the country’s continued return to normalcy. Mayor Bill de Blasio on Tuesday announced that the city would hold a parade on July 7 to honor front line and essential workers.

      Sports venues, bars, gyms and hair salons are open for business. Planes are being jammed full again and would-be travelers are breakin’ down the doors to get on.

      I’m glad you’ve finally emerged from the jungle to rejoin the “post-covid” world. Here’s the 411. The concept of Trump as craven, diabolical super-spreader served its purpose and has been abandoned. The “press” has moved on to desperately trying to preserve the fiction that Trump “lied” when he said that the virus came from a “lab in China.”

    2. IM Doc

      I would like to point out something that has really been bothering me for some time.

      And FYI – I am reporting this as a liberal-leaning Dem – which I have been for decades. Those days however may be rapidly coming to an end. I have tried hard to keep politics out of science and medicine where it most definitely does not belong. In medicine, the “who’s going to pay for it aspect” is most definitely in the political realm – all the stuff going on right now in our culture – absolutely not.

      Because of the absolute negligence of our federal agencies – CDC, etc, and our local health dept – there are entire groups of us practicing physicians out here in the country networking and doing our best to keep each other informed of what is going on. I also heavily keep in touch with my colleagues in my old residency program.

      Therefore, I am exposed to stories all over the country – like this one – which was just reported this week.

      There are literally dozens and dozens more of these stories from every state – that have been reported on the past few months.

      Anyone who thinks these vaccines are NON-STERILIZING – please read this story and explain your position to me. I AM ALL EARS – but spoiler alert – I have dozens more for you to explain away after this one.

      This is unlike the above referenced article in truthout – this is from a main-stream media outlet – NPR in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

      This type of presentation is profoundly common for these stories – and I want to point out to all the obvious problems and how the readers are instantly manipulated into the wrong conclusions. First of all – from the title alone – and then into the meat of the article – is all the rhubarb and Jesus talk – signaling to the Rachel Maddow crowd – that indeed – the rhubarbs are about to take it in the ass. THEY DESERVE IT. How dare anyone question these wonderful vaccines – a TRIUMPH of modern science? These readers will likely not make it past the first few sentences – and put their iPAD down and do a happy dance.

      But if you read to the end – you are told off-handedly – that SIXTY THREE PERCENT of those involved were vaccinated. Please note the comment earlier in the story that vaccination was optimal (we have to make ’em look as bad as possible).

      A self-respecting reporter – would ask – what percent of the vaccinated actually were positive? That 63% seems to be right in line with Fauci’s desire for herd immunity, what do you make of that? – AND MORE IMPORTANT FOR US ALL TO REALIZE – 63% vaccination rates are higher than any metro in the USA – and indeed per Dr. Fauci’s testimony, the staff of the CDC and NIH – and YET THIS STILL HAPPENED……

      None of these questions were reported….I happen to second hand know just a bit about this story – and I can tell you those questions were most assuredly asked – it is just THE ANSWERS DO NOT FIT THE NARRATIVE. So we just do not report it.

      My feeling is the MDs involved went AGAINST THE ADVICE OF THE CDC and did contact tracing on every last person involved. And Oh MY GOD – AY CARUMBA – we actually have an outbreak. As is so common now (and the vaccines may be responsible) the involved are minimally symptomatic. However, and I agree – we have a leaky vaccine. And when that is going on – CONTACT TRACING AND QUARANTINE are vital. Is it really a good idea to have vaccinated positive patients wondering around a Kroger? I know I am old-fashioned, but I really think that is not in the best interest of public health – but the CDC and state health departments are just no longer interested. I really feel that not good things may be coming our way.

      Back to your point about the Trump super-spreader events. I am far less concerned about them – than I am about the anti-science, anti-logic attitudes of the mainstream media, our CDC, and the Rachel Maddow PMC types. They really are insufferably arrogant, are totally wrong – and do not have two neurons firing to even realize the danger they are exposing us all to.

      Just my two cents – from a liberal Dem.

FluffytheObeseCat

“….is it widespread knowledge that the Covid mRNA vaccines have caused more deaths and serious adverse events than all of the previous 70 vaccines that have been in use for 30 years, combined”

This needs a link or citation.

  1. Lemmy Caution

    Here is the point in a three-way discussion where Dr. Bret Weinstein, evolutionary biologist, Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of the mRNA vaccine technology, and Steve Kirsch, an entrepreneur who has been researching adverse reactions to COVID vaccines, discuss a graph depicting the explosion of serious adverse reactions reported in the VAERS system that coincide with the introduction of the Covid mRNA vaccines.
    Here is the same graph with supporting data and information, as posted on the openvaers.com site.

    1. Phillip Cross

      Be careful about putting too much weight on that VAERS number. Just because there is a report in there, it does not mean it was a confirmed as something actually caused by the vaccine.

      People die and develop illnesses all the time, vaccine or no. When you have a sample size of 150m of society’s most vulnerable people, you would expect all manner of horrible coincidental outcomes to happen.

      Since HHS tells us “VAERS is a passive reporting system, meaning it relies on individuals to send in reports of their experiences. Anyone can submit a report to VAERS, including parents and patients.”, many of these will get entered into VAERS because many people have been ‘shat up’ by torrential streams of disinformation and decided 2+2=7.

      Go ahead and report one yourself!

      1. IM Doc

        Thank you for the party line.

        IT IS A FEDERAL CRIME TO PUT ANYTHING FALSE INTO THAT SYSTEM. YOU ARE REMINDED REPEATEDLY DURING THE ENTIRE PROCESS OF DATA ENTRY.

        The issue is not the actual numbers – it is the sudden surge of exactly the same complications that can be very informative. The VAERS system has been critically important in the past for sussing out vaccine issues – most notably with Gardasil and shingles.

        I have been telling my patients who ask about VAERS some simple facts. The actual numbers of this or that problem are really not accurate. However, trends and comparisons to previous vaccines are critical. The death numbers and morbid complications are simply breathtakingly off the charts – and I think it is very very foolish to ignore that in this situation when appropriate testing has never been done on these vaccines.

        So, for example, it is crystal clear in the VAERS data that these vaccines are very problematic for pregnant women – very elevated miscarriage rates. Some Western countries with functional health agencies have banned their use in pregnancy. Not here of course.

        I was very happy to see this today in the MMWR –
        https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7024e2.htm?s_cid=mm7024e2_w

        They are lamenting the fact that less than 20% of pregnant patients are getting COVID vaccinated in USA.

        I, however, could not be more happy. It tells me there are legions of docs out in the real world paying attention – and guiding their patients safely.

        VAERS tells us that it is clearly risky to vaccinate pregnant women with these vaccines. The risks far outweigh the benefits. The trendlines for miscarriage compared to other vaccines in VAERS are awful.

        And here is the thing – if you think that it is just the patients reading the VAERS and being bamboozled – you are sadly mistaken. The MMWR report linked above tells me that the OB docs in this country have been reading the VAERS too – and despite their national orgs encouraging vaccination – are telling women NO WAY. I do not have an OB in my entire circle that is telling pregnant women to vaccinate. Not one.

        I am far from anti-vaccine – have given out over 30000 over my life. I am however very leery of things not fully tested – and feel that the risks and benefits must be weighed for every patient. The VAERS is critical for me to be able to do that. Unlike Rachel Maddow and Sean Hannity – I do actually know how to read the system and use it appropriately – and so do the vast majority of docs in this country. It is a sad day that tools like VAERS have been weaponized in our political wars.

        1. Phillip Cross

          Come on now! A report in VAERS is not equivalent to a health problem actually caused by a vaccine.

          Anyone (even me) can add a report to VAERS on that page. The reporters can genuinely believe the adverse event was caused by the vaccine, but that does not mean it is actually the case. Belief is not proof.

          1. Katniss Everdeen

            Tell that to the federal government / fda which, in granting an EUA, “pledge” to actively monitor the “safety” of the experimental vaccine. VAERS is part of the

            “well-established post-authorization/post-approval vaccine safety monitoring infrastructure that will be scaled up to meet the needs of a large-scale COVID-19 vaccination program.

            Once again, from that handy fda EUA “explainer” that no one bothers to read:

            Post-authorization vaccine safety monitoring is a federal government responsibility shared primarily by FDA and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), along with other agencies involved in healthcare delivery….

            The U.S. government has a well-established post-authorization/post-approval vaccine safety monitoring infrastructure that will be scaled up to meet the needs of a large-scale COVID-19 vaccination program. The U.S. government – in partnership with health systems, academic centers, and private sector partners – will use multiple existing vaccine safety monitoring systems to monitor COVID-19 vaccines in the post-authorization/approval period. Some of these systems are the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), the Biologics Effectiveness and Safety (BEST) Initiative, and Medicare claims data.

            If VAERS is inadequate, it is by design. As intimated by Weinstein et al. in the video / podcast.

            https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained

          2. IM Doc

            I am sorry – you clearly do not understand how the system works. –

            I am not a reporter believing anything when I look at VAERS – I am a physician looking at trends to help my patients. If a reporter does not understand how to use the system – maybe they should not be reporting about it.

            It is meant to look at overall trends – it is not meant to look at individual cases. It is an early warning system – and IT IS SCREAMING things to us – that are being roundly ignored by our health officials for the first time in my professional career. I have read many papers and sat through many lectures about how the VAERS has done this or that in previous years. Interesting how that has all gone by the wayside and minimized. We do live in very concerning times.

            For the first time in my career, docs at big hospital systems are being forced to run any and all patient safety vaccine issues through the risk management dept before going to VAERS. They are being threatened with being fired if the CDC through VAERS requests their patient’s medical records. Neither has ever happened in my life before – Why would you say that is?

            Such is the misinformation out there about VAERS in our media that good-hearted laymen like yourself are confused – and trying to make things of it that it was never designed to do. Again – something that has served the medical community for a long time has been weaponized by the media/politics. We live in very tragic times.

            I am just not sure what else to say.

            FYI – all of the more than a dozen patient issues that I have reported to VAERS this year have ABSOLUTELY been things caused by one of these vaccines.

            1. Phillip Cross

              Are you trying to tell me that I cannot submit a report to VAERS if I believe there had been an adverse reaction?

              If anyone can do it, (they can) you cannot say that the data tells us anything other than number of reports people filed.

              It does not tell us the number of reactions proven to be caused by the vaccine.

          3. Objective Ace

            >A report in VAERS is not equivalent to a health problem actually caused by a vaccine.

            This is true. But the substantial increase (from 150 yearly to 6000 in a 6 months) should at least give us pause and make us want to confirm there is no health problem. However, the CDC and FDA for whatever reason are not doing that. I hope you are right and there is no health problem with the vaccines, but the lack of interest in the matter by out public health agencies is not an endorsing statement to me that makes me inclined to get vaccinated

            1. Phillip Cross

              I haven’t had a vaccine for 30 years+, but they have jabbed 150m arms of the nations most vulnerable in the last 6 months. Unprecedented in the history of VAERS. Usually it’s just healthy kids getting vacinnes. A massive uptick in coincidental health issues is to be expected. Adults suddenly get sick and die in large numbers all the time.

              Is there any data on health issues happening at an above average rate?

              1. Fred

                This is not remotely correct. About 170m people got the flu shot last year, skewed to older and more vulnerable people. How many deaths in VAERS? 42

                And that happens every year.

          4. ChrisPacific

            If I’ve been following this correctly, I think you are misunderstanding the purpose of VAERS. It’s not intended to establish cause. It’s designed to capture EVERY adverse reaction following a vaccine, in order to provide a complete record of data. This data can then be used for further analysis to determine whether any of the reactions is potentially caused by the vaccine – typically by comparing the rate of incidence to the expected baseline rate in the population, and looking for large discrepancies.

            Some of the problematic cases I’ve seen, like myocarditis in teens, are showing numbers a factor of 10 or 20 higher than baseline rates. You can say that doesn’t prove causality, and you would be correct – but it does strongly indicate that it should be raised as a hypothesis and tested in the interests of public safety, and also that public health advice should be updated if the effect is significant enough. If there’s enough data suggesting it MIGHT be true then it’s also appropriate to take precautions with patients that fit the criteria, at least until it’s definitively proven one way or another.

            All of the above is exactly what IM Doc is doing, from my reading, and your comment does not refute any of it. Your contention that it’s being corrupted by misinformation is not borne out by any of the analysis that I’ve seen – in fact, for non-problematic cases the reporting rate for adverse events appears to track the population baseline rate extremely closely.

            1. Phillip Cross

              “It’s not intended to establish cause.”

              Exactly.

              VAERS tells us how many reports have been filed by anyone who feels they wish to make a report, and the public are able to file unverifiable reports online.

              So VAERS does not tell us how many adverse reactions have been caused by the vaccine.

              However, FUD merchants will tell you otherwise.

              1. ChrisPacific

                Your arguments seem to boil down to (a) VAERS does not prove cause and (b) some irresponsible elements in the media arguing that it does should not be believed. I think everyone in the discussion is happy to concede both those points. However, neither of them hits the key point, which is what to do in cases where a cause is strongly suggested by empirical evidence but not yet proven.

                You seem to be going further and arguing that because the VAERS data doesn’t establish cause, it’s useless. I strongly reject this argument. It’s empirical evidence, which in rapidly evolving situations like this one is often all we have to work with for a while. Like all empirical evidence it should be viewed with skepticism (VAERS itself comes with disclaimers to this effect, and outlines possible sources of bias). However, from what I can tell it appears to be reasonably high quality, with most reactions tracking very closely to the baseline rate in the population as a whole. If I see an order of magnitude discrepancy in a particular category in a dataset with that baseline level of fidelity, I’d call it cause for concern. Yes, it should be considered in context (20 times a very small number might still be a small number) and yes, the risk calculus might still favor taking the vaccine if you live somewhere like the US with high baseline risk of Covid. But if you’re suggesting – as you appear to be – that the data is useless, I would say you are every bit as guilty of exaggeration as the FUD merchants you are criticizing

                1. Aumua

                  Unpopular opinion (avert eyes if sensitive):

                  The vaccines seem to be generally very safe, with only a small fraction of a percentage of potentially dangerous reactions. Also they seem to be working pretty well. Just look at the worldometer numbers. Yes there is no guarantee that the vaccines prevent people from getting covid, getting sick or transmitting it. But I think it’s pretty clear that they do prevent exposed people from even catching at all it in the majority of cases. Once again, look at the numbers. In addition, the vaccines prevent death in nearly 100% of the cases.

                  I get the doubts, and it’s ok to have them. But just look at the way that healthy skepticism has taken off around here in just a few days into rampant suspicion and wild speculations of coverup and conspiracy, much of which is coming from only a very few questionable at best sources. I’m just saying lets all keep our pants on here.

                  1. IM Doc

                    Yes – I agree the symptoms are much diminished as are hospitalizations and deaths. When you look at the big picture of pandemics, it is completely unclear if this is related to the vaccines – or if this is just the natural course. The big drop off started long before the vaccines had a chance to do a thing. Pandemics are all different – they peter out, they get worse – we just do not know what this one is going to do. Right now – things are looking great – and I along with everyone hope it stays that way.

                    But, one of the very concerning things that can happen is to have a leaky vaccine. This is a virologic fact – and there are folks everywhere seeing the same things I am reporting here – just not in the media – who are completely involved in their own narratives and stories.

                    That development would not be good news. The pandemic could still peter out – but it could also get very ugly. It has gone both ways in both human and veterinary medicine. I think your assertion that it is preventing exposed people from catching it is not supportable in our current venue – completely inadequate testing and contact tracing is being done – there is no way to make assertions like that with incomplete testing. We just do not know where we are with that issue.

                    I am not seeing the “rampant suspicion and coverups and conspiracy ” that you are seeing. I find it tragic that questioning, hypothesizing, and taking care of one’s own patients is now considered a conspiracy theory. That is part of the problem and the tragedy we are living through today.

                    As far as “keeping pants on” – that is my life every day. I deal with life or death daily. I have had times in my life – AIDS – for example – that are far worse than this – I have not had to sign 12 death certificates daily for weeks like I did then. I am having to deal with things I have never dealt with before this past year – legions of confused patients – because of the negligence of our agencies.

                    1. Aumua

                      I agree with you that correlation is not necessarily causation about the decline in virus numbers and vaccines, but the the correlation is pretty strong to be fair. Also I do admit that I myself am speculating that the covid vaccine prevents infection in the majority of cases. I don’t know that for a fact, but that is what vaccines are supposed to do right? So it’s not that unreasonable to assume that is what they are doing. There’s been plenty of talk of coverups recently too, about the fatality numbers being fake or manipulated, doctors having agendas, false claims by authorities etc. Some of which are undoubtedly true. The authorities do not inspire confidence with their waffling and lack of useful information. So, we just have a lot of uncertainty, still. Like there has been the entire time around this whole thing. And that unfortunately is a fertile breeding ground for jumping to all kinds of conclusions, whether they are really supported or not.

                  2. Tom Bradford

                    The vaccines seem to be generally very safe,

                    is the problem for me.
                    They seem to be very safe if you read one set of data-wielding zealots, but don’t seem to be safe if you read another set of data-wielding zealots. While I’m not inclined to automatically place my faith in “the Authorities”, not all sinister-conspiracy-out-to-get-us paranoids wear obvious tin-foil hats.

                    While I give a lot of weight to IM Doc’s contributions here his statement:

                    I do actually know how to read the system and use it appropriately – and so do the vast majority of docs in this country. It is a sad day that tools like VAERS have been weaponized in our political wars.

                    troubles me, for if the vast majority of docs (in the US) can see what he claims to see why are so few speaking out? “The Authorities” might be able to intimidate or brow-beat a few docs with doubts into keeping them to themselves, but the “vast majority”? There’s strength in numbers, and I refuse to believe only a handful of doctors in the US have IM Doc’s regard for their Hippocratic Oath.

                    Too the “political wars” he claims to be weaponising tools like VAERS are only raging in the US. Would the medical professions in the UK, Europe and other places where these vaccines being rolled out be as supine in the face of widespread experience of adverse reactions to the vaccines as he seems to be suggesting is the case in the US?

                    Politics and third-rate politicians cost us all the opportunity to nip this in the bud last March/April with a world-wide, brutal and expensive lock-down which we would now be well out of and have had months of picking up the pieces at far less economic cost and disruption than is the on-going blundering and chaos. Given that Covid won the first round our choices now seem to be conceding it the field or fighting back with the weapons, however imperfect, we have.

                    1. IM Doc

                      With regard to the physicians and agencies in Europe –
                      Would encourage you to look at recent news out of Europe.

                      Germany is not recommending the vaccines for anyone under 20 unless they have other risk factors as of late last week.

                      The UK, I read today on the BBC, has its main FDA-like agency looking to recommend the same.

                      They may not have political wars ( I do not know – I do not live there) raging in those 2 major allies of ours – but they certainly seem to have scientists and medical people who are looking at the data and taking action to mitigate risk UNTIL MORE INFORMATION IS KNOWN.

                      As for the docs here and our Hippocratic Oath – please read my earlier comment about the OB physicians. I do not think more than 80% of the pregnant women in this country have declined the vaccine just because what they read on the Internet – it is clear to me talking with colleagues that many OB physicians have read the VAERS as well. They are actively discouraging the vaccine until after the delivery. I know – I have talked to multiple of them. The same thing is now beginning to happen in the pediatric cardiology community with all the myocarditis showing up.

                      And unfortunately – the “Vast Majority” of docs in this country are not able to talk – it is a problem that has been building for years – they are employees now – and risk losing it all for saying a word. I listen and talk to docs all the time who are profoundly concerned about what is going on – and just competely unable to talk because of their situation. Yes it is our own fault – we have given up much independence – but the price is now becoming painfully obvious to many.

                      I am in a fairly comfortable position where I am – but still am anonymous because I just do not want to take the chance right now.

                      And if you do not feel that the VAERS system has been politicized in our current malaise – you simply have not been paying attention. I would love for you to walk in my shoes any day and talk to the patients who are just massively confused. We have the right telling them one thing – the left telling them the polar opposite. The authorities who should in other times be able to clear the confusion are completely impotent and untrusted – they have been compromised after months of dissembling, politicking and outright lying.

                      It is a situation in this country that I would never have dreamed possible just 10 years ago.

  1. Katniss Everdeen

    “We have a solution to this crisis,” he said unequivocally. “There is a drug that is proving to have a miraculous impact.”

    Kory had been trying to make such a case, but complained to the Senate that public efforts had been stifled, because “every time we mention ivermectin, we get put in Facebook jail.”…

    As the supply of enthusiastic “early adopter” vaccine guinea pigs looks to be increasingly exhausted, and complications like myocarditis emerge that the cdc and fda must create less and less compelling justifications to ignore, can the reality of ivermectin continue to be kept from the public?

    Can zuckerberg et al. cancel Matt Taibbi for talking about it? What if Joe Rogan decides to weigh in?

    What if other countries, fed up with vaccine apartheid and unconstrained by rampant profiteering, successfully turn to Ivermectin? Without Trump to blame for “botching” management of the pandemic, would “media” really ignore any demonstrated results?

    Such are the perils of conducting a drug trial on such a massive scale, and using up all your censorship and information control bullets early on, I guess. Big pharma and the vaccine cheerleaders could really use a trusted media right now. Too bad they wasted it on Russiagate, impeachment and 1/6.

    1. IM Doc

      What if other countries, fed up with vaccine apartheid and unconstrained by rampant profiteering, successfully turn to Ivermectin? Without Trump to blame for “botching” management of the pandemic, would “media” really ignore any demonstrated results?

      I am not sure – but I believe the answer to the above question may be coming right on up. I sat through a 15 minute discussion on Zoom yesterday from a forum in one of our major medical centers about the Ivermectin usage in India…….

      As is the usual case, there are many confounding factors that must be dealt with by the epidemiologists – but I would say that the overall conclusion was that it had a rather positive affect on outcomes of mortality and morbidity. This is exactly my experience with the drug during our big surge this past year.

      And as the speaker said and I have heard so many times – the Declarations of Helsinki – our guiding force in medical ethics – really gives little wiggle room in whether or not to use it at this time with our limited information. We now have somewhat limited studies on efficacy – almost all of which are positive – but overwhelming evidence on safety. Our medical ethics history is screaming to us that this should be used – and right now.

      The fact that this is being openly discussed now in our major medical centers is a sign to me that the gyre is opening. Furthermore – a subsidiary of NATURE – one of the most important scientific journals in the world published yesterday a peer-reviewed evidence based paper detailing how the drug could actually work ( the link is in the above links today). This is paradigm shifting.

      The dam is beginning to break. Someday in the immediate near future – I cannot wait to see Zuckerberg and Dorsey squirming under the klieg lights about their company’s suppression of medical and scientific discourse. It is certainly one of the big scandals of our era.



The next post is pretty long so it'll be posted here separately to spare my readers.
temporaryreality: (Default)
 This one features GM (another commenter) as well as IM Doc

An Indictment of US Covid Policy

Posted on May 19, 2021 by 

Reader GM, who has an aura-of-burning-rubber resume (membership of several elite scientific institutions) and hangs with scientists who have published dozens of cutting-edge immunology papers, including on topics directly relevant to the intricacies of Covid pathogenesis, has provided, through a series of e-mails, a damning critique of US Covid policy. Thanks to America’s status in the global economy, it is well nigh impossible for other countries to pursue a markedly different path. As he described in a recent e-mail:

The question that I have no answer to is when exactly was it decided to not contain it. If you remember, some information came out about early and mid-February 2020 closed Senate meetings, after which senators were selling their shares in hotels and airlines, i.e. what was going to happen in late March was known at that time. But it was not in fact too late to contain it in early February, it could have been done with test-trace-isolate. So maybe it was perceived at the time that it could not be, assuming the decision was made as late as possible within that timeline. But the earlier that decision happened, the more nefarious motivations one would have to suspect were involved, because why would you not at least try to contain it when it was eminently doable? After all SARS-1 was contained even though it reached hundreds of cases in Canada and the US. And then what followed was the outright sabotage of testing and detection by the CDC,1 the CDC allowing strongly suspected to be infected people to just get off their flight and walk right back into the community, and a rather long list of other such absurd actions. Maybe one day internal information will leak and we will learn the truth, who knows…

Also, this all becomes even more gruesome when one realizes that the decision of the US to allow it to become endemic meant the same decision was imposed on most of the rest of the world, as the US controls it. As I said above, Eastern Europe (except for Belarus and Russia) took it very seriously early on and locked down before it had gotten out of hand, and was in fact very close to elimination. Montenegro, which eventually ended up being one of the worst affected countries, actually did eliminate it in May 2020.

But once it became clear the US will not eliminate and the EU will not eliminate, those countries had no choice, although they could have at least held out for vaccines instead of letting it rip. There was never going to be a world in which the EU and Latin America have indefinitely banned travel out of the US, not with US military bases stationed all over Europe. And there was never going to be a world in which Bulgaria and Romania ban travel from Germany.

The really sad part is that a country like Russia supposedly does have that independence, and could have gone for elimination and closed borders and a bubble with China. But modern Russia is not the USSR, it’s just as, if not more neoliberal than the US, so they let it rip too, for the same reasons as in the US…

And now some the countries that did the right thing — Taiwan, Vietnam, and Laos — are encircled and battling their worst outbreaks since the start, which is heartbreaking to watch.

Even this site, early on, inferred that both the Trump and Biden Administrations were relying on magic Covid vaccines as pretty much their only Covid strategy. Policy-makers and public health officials were unwilling and/or unable to pursue a path of eradication, which in practice is aggressive minimization: hard lockdowns, followed up by opening only areas where new infections are effectively nil, testing at-risk populations often, and engaging in contact tracing and quarantines. Our rejection of quarantines was a tell that the chosen path instead was simply to keep hospitalizations to a manageable level.2 And bugger any consideration of morbidity.

Quite a few of those who are neither in the Biden-aligned PMC bubble nor anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers, like the biggest nurses unions in America, are upset and confused by the Biden Administration’s Covid “Mission Accomplished” directive of “ditch masks and social distancing if you are among the fully vaccinated ‘cool kids’ group.”3 Even if you buy the proposition vaccines alone can vanquish Covid, this was utterly irresponsible messaging. Where was the warning that the vaccinated will need another shot by early-mid fall?

So far, the main propagator of the notion that boosters are coming has been the drug companies themselves, rather than public health officials. But my impression is that even then, no one has been willing to suggest more than an annual shot.

By contrast, former Harvard Medical School/Harvard School of Public Health professor William Haseltine in Forbes warned that booster jabs for mRNA vaccines to combat variants were probably needed six months after the second shot .

Haseltine recaps new research from Moderna, whose vaccine confers the best immunity. It shows that immunity to new variants, as shown by antibody levels, is likely to last only 6 months from the initial shots, and for The Original Covid, eight months. Some researchers argue that T cell and memory B cell immunity could last longer; Haseltine isn’t willing to bet the farm on that.

This finding is consistent with our uninformed layperson best guess. We repeatedly pointed out that experts estimated that immunity after having contracted Covid lasts six to eight months. Even though we accepted the notion that vaccine-conferred immunity would be more robust (as in would enable the recipient to combat higher viral loads and might also offer more protection against variants), that didn’t amount to proof that vaccine-conferred immunity was longer-lived.4

From Haseltine:

The majority of new infections in the US, Europe, and most other countries are now driven by variants….

A new preprint study conducted by Moderna describes both the hope and challenge of booster vaccines as an approach to the solution to the problem of variants. Their booster shots appear to be effective at neutralizing at least two of the new variants, B.1.351 and P.1. But importantly, their preprint study also revealed the first-generation Moderna vaccine doesn’t protect against the variants for as long as we initially hoped…

When tested for its ability to neutralize the P.1 and B.1.351 strains, the antibodies generated by the Moderna vaccine against the original strain dropped to low or undetectable levels six to eight months after the second dose…If two doses of the Moderna vaccine amount to six months of protection against the variants, other vaccines are likely to guarantee less.

So not only is the Biden Administration failing to prepare the public that those who’ve gotten their shots will need to take another in a few months, they’ve also effectively trash-talked what proved to be pretty effective public health strategies of masking and social distancing. Look at how New York City went from being a Covid disaster area to a good performer before vaccinations were readily available. Yet Team Biden has effectively endorsed the Covid-denier line that wearing masks is oppressive.

GM warned where the combination of infection level and vaccine effectiveness lead:

Unfortunately, with many respected scientists jumping on board of the optimism hype train (it was quite noticeable how the mood shifted on purely scientific matters that had absolutely nothing to do with politics a few months ago), the wrong message has already been once again sent to the public, and we can expect disaster in the future.

Non-sterilizing vaccines mean the virus will not only get the chance to evolve complete escape but will be channeled in that direction. But it also may be channeled in the direction of being much more virulent as a side effect of its fight with the vaccines (this can get quite detailed on a molecular level so I will not go into it right now).

The math does not look good — the unmitigated-spread R_0 in February 2020 was much closer to 6.0 than to the usually cited 2.0. But the current variants have undergone adaptation and are much more contagious. Let’s say we have R_0 = 6. And let’s say we reach 70% vaccination (it’s hard to see how we will get higher), and that transmission is cut by 80% (this, however, is simplistic — it is quite likely that transmission is cut by 80% in the first couple months after vaccination, but then the first thing that will wear off is protection from infection, with protection from severe disease going away last). That’s 56% effective vaccination. But the herd immunity threshold for R_0=6 is 85%, a lot higher, i.e. it will continue to spread. It might in fact continue to spread even with 100% vaccination with a full return to 2019 in terms of lack of social distancing.

So we should absolutely never have gone down the path of “solving” this crisis with vaccines and not doing anything to stop transmission. The vaccines should have been used as one of the tools to eliminate the virus, but in combination with NPIs.

If evolution featured in the thinking of our overlords, they would not have settled on this as the “solution” to the problem. But either it does not, or they just don’t care.

P.S. Some more sobering simple math. Let’s say the vaccine is 90% protective against severe disease over a period of two years. Then one can expect to have on average three serious COVID episodes by the time he is 60 even if he is always up-to-date with his biannual vaccinations (and there is no knowing how much more virulent to young people it will have become in the future with all the serial passaging). We now see what round #1 of mass reinfections looks like in India. So that is the “solution” being offered right now. However, it will probably not happen as one giant apocalyptic wave so it can be pushed to the background as a non-problem.

Mind you (and GM has discussed these on other threads), there is a promising nasal vaccine under development that should be able to achieve sterilizing immunity, and that could even start being distributed if everything goes right by end of 2022. That sort of vaccine could be a game-changer. The current ones are enablers of “life with Covid” and not “life after Covid”.

IM Doc has pointed out that past great pandemics had a first wave, then a more acute second wave, and somehow the virus and humans reached an accommodation. So it’s possible Mother Nature will bail us out after we go through some more collective pain.

Another avenue the US has not taken all that seriously is treatments. We reported yesterday, for instance, of a retroviral treatment developed in Queensland that reduced Covid viral loads in mice by 99.9%. IM Doc is a bit leery since he’s seen retroviral based treatments go spectacularly south in some cancer and autoimmune disease patients. But biomedical professor KLG had speculated earlier that ivermectin and another (one or two) antivirals that attack other parts of the viral replication pathway will be one answer to COVID-19, each given at a relatively low dose and working synergistically: “This is how AIDS was turned into a manageable chronic infection in most HIV/AIDS patients.”

So there is hope of eventually getting off the inertial path, but make no mistake, the one our putative leaders have put us on is not pretty. GM made this call on May 8, the week before the “Mission Accomplished” reversal:

GM made this call on May 8:

….the path forward …. “personal choice” on how much you can protect yourself, but nothing will be done to stop transmission aside from vaccination. The US will easily tolerate 100-200K deaths a year, probably even more, as long as hospitals do not collapse. And the truth is that while they were close to collapsing on several occasions, at no point did it become an India-like situation.

And that is fine as far as the powers that be are concerned – the only real constraint there ever was was that there should be no people dying on the street outside of hospitals because that is very bad PR and it runs the risk of the public waking up and demanding that an elimination program be implemented (which is fundamentally impossible without the absolutely abominable idea of taking from the rich and giving to the poor). How many people die overall does not matter (especially given that we know very well which people will be doing the dying and which people will be living comfortable secluded from it all lives). BTW, this has a corollary – expanding hospital capacity is something that we do not want in the West, because what it means is a lot more people dying and becoming disabled for life in absolute terms, as it raises that tolerance limit. This is one reason the late-2020 wave was met with a lot less restrictions than the Spring 2020 one. Even though it killed 2-3X as many people. Hospitals were “prepared”. Again, this perverse logic works in the West. In less privileged places people will be left to die on the streets.

This also highlights the more generally perverted logic of Western medicine and healthcare systems – we only care about “treatment”, not about the actual health of people.

Of course nobody wants to listen, so a lot of suffering lies ahead.

Yes, we’ll get through Covid collectively, but many people and families will suffer unnecessarily due to weak and incompetent leadership and lack of concern for the general good. This is yet another product of neoliberal cognitive capture.

____

1 From GM in a different thread:

For the record, to those of us in the molecular biology world, what the CDC was doing in January and February 2020, when it simultaneously could not put together a working test for the six to eight long crucial weeks of silent undetected spread, while preventing others from developing their own, looked like deliberate sabotage of containment. It was hard to explain in any other way — I’ve mentored high school students who were successfully doing much more complex designs of molecular biology reagents in 9th grade, it is not rocket science, plus there were already working designs from other countries, and it was quite literally a copy-paste matter to adapt those. And then there is the question of why would you possibly not allow others from working out their own tests and also demanding that samples be sent across the country to Atlanta, when literally every minute was of the utmost importance?

2 Please do not present New York’s quarantine as a counterexample. I went in and out of New York City several times while it was on (to see doctors). It was a joke. I did not have to change a single thing I had planned, for example.

3 The plural of anecdote is not data, but I am seeing even some resistance among my tiny sample here. I saw an older but fit looking woman at the drugstore wearing a serious-looking mask and thanked her for doing so. She said she was fully vaccinated but thought it was way too soon to stop masking. I assume her logic was to model appropriate behavior.

4 Mind you, getting Covid is a really bad idea; we are simply leery of the over-hyping of the vaccines.
 

Adrian D.

I’d add to my comments regarding the ability of any country to contain the virus to ask GM what he thinks of the goings on currently in Taiwan. It’s a country with everything going for it as far as potential containment measures are concerned – an island nation with effective border controls, high compliance to government advice, indoor mask wearing and – crucially effective test-and-trace – the combination of which we are led to believe is sufficient to contain the virus.

But now we have the introduction of more serious, restrictive measures in response to a rapid increase in the rates of transmission. Yes the absolute numbers are low, but what this shows is that even with everything in their favour, this virus is very, very hard to contain without shutting businesses and locking people down/away.

 
  1. GM

    Taiwan lowered their guard — they never locked down because they controlled their borders from the beginning, but then apparently they gradually relaxed some of the border control measures and that’s how it inevitably leaked back into local transmission (3 days quarantine for airline pilots is absurd).

    What I don’t like is that they are not already under total lockdown with the current case counts — what is happening right now is very similar to what European countries were doing in March 2020, i.e. gradual imposition of restrictions instead of dropping the hammer immediately as Australia and NZ do. This has usually gone spectacularly bad. Once you get above a couple hundred cases a day it becomes very hard to trace all clusters and the only thing that can solve the problem is total lockdown (as in Victoria), and if you don’t impose it, COVID becomes endemic.

    The question is whether this is a sign that they are giving up or they just want to preserve for as long as possible the distinction that they controlled it successfully without “authoritarian” measures, in contrast to the mainland, but despite that public health considerations will eventually prevail.

    The list of ZeroCOVID countries is very very short now — Thailand, Cambodia and Mongolia have given up, so we are left with China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, Laos, Australia and NZ (and a bunch of tiny Pacific Island countries), with Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, and Singapore battling serious outbreaks now, the most serious ever for the first three.

    China will be able to resist the longest, but the others are already under tremendous pressure to open up their borders (the flurry of articles calling them “hermit” countries and decrying the loss of their cosmopolitan values has already started), and it will be increasingly harder to keep the virus out.

    In Taiwan there is an added complication — the computer chip factories, on which the whole world depends. Can you control the virus without hurting production there in some way? Probably not. But there is a very serious shortage right now worldwide, and thus an immense pressure to keep those open at all costs.

I’ve read GM’s comments again and I’m more baffled now. He’s talking about test-trace-isolate in ‘early February’, but how were these tests to be performed? The (in)famous Corman Drosten paper was only published on 23rd January – how could anyone expect an effective system to be in place in a fortnight? It was months before the infrastructure was available. We’re talking about symptoms common to all sorts of respiratory conditions in the months when those were at or around their peak anyway – and yes, it’s more serious than flu, but for the majority of people they’ll likely suffer no more than what appears to be a heavy one.

The most obvious response then – backed up by the established pandemic plans – was to tell everyone with symptoms to isolate. That the US & UK didn’t follow this up with immediate reassurance that whoever did wouldn’t lose their job or income was the criminal mistake then (along with kicking the sick elderly back out into care-homes & probably too lax border monitoring). That they didnt magically impose a functioning test&trace system has to be seen in the context of that time.

 
    1. Adrian D.

      @GM Yes, well done them for that in their for-all-intents–and-purposes Island state, with COV1 experience, arguably culturally compliant, tech-enabled, wealthy, quite urban population. Can you comment on Taiwan’s need for lockdowns now though? Effective T&T hasn’t stopped them needing that has it?

       
      1. GM

        So Seattle, New York and the SF Bay Area are not wealthy, tech-enabled and urban?

        Even better examples — what is Vietnam? I don’t think they even used phone apps as in South Korea, just did it the old fashioned way. And they did it several times, not just once.

        I commented on Taiwan elsewhere in the thread but it has not gotten past moderation.

        P.S. Also, we need to keep in mind that governments, especially the US government, do not get their information from the media. If random regular people knew we have a very serious problem on our hands in mid-January, and then the events circa January 24th, when the cordon sanitaire was established around Wuhan, dispelled all remaining doubts, it is a safe bet to assume that the US government was aware of what is happening much earlier than those regular people.

         

  1. Left in Wisconsin

    If the claim is that an effective test-trace-isolate system could have been up and running in the U.S. in two weeks from late Jan – early Feb, then I’m with Adrian D – no way. I’m not sure it could have been done even if one is considering this as strictly an engineering problem but, and this is perhaps the one useful thing that social science has taught us, the social is part of every human activity. Does the two-week scenario account for rioting in the streets? Fox News? Having to do this over the opposition of the sitting President and most politicians? How many new public health workers would have needed to be hired? And trained? In a (pseudo) democratic country at a time when most of us knew virtually nothing? Talk about faith in science. Given what we have learned from this episode, I would not confidently claim we could do such a thing if a future, more virulent virus appears. But I do think we would do better than we did this time. (In this case, I think “we” is the correct subject.)

    There is another thing I don’t understand about the eradication argument. As far as I know, everyone agrees that COVID seems to have an original single source. Is the argument really that isolation could lead to the complete eradication/die off of the virus, such that another single case at some point in the future couldn’t kick off another round of global pandemic? Skepticism about this is not an argument for doing nothing – just the opposite – but aren’t we ultimately going to be reliant on vaccines for beating this, in the same way that we are reliant on vaccines for beating polio, measles, TB, etc.?

     
    1. GM

      The US government probably knew about the virus in December the latest. They don’t get their information from the media, the media gets its information from them, and even according to the official version of events that has been released, they were informed very early in January.

      We are not talking two weeks to set up TTI, but two months to both close borders and set up TTI.

      Under both the direct zoonosis transfer and the lab leak hypotheses, the virus underwent major changes on its way from bats to humans and does not have an external reservoir. Thus the smallpox model does apply.

      Bats will still harbor a lot of SARS-type coronaviruses as well as a very large zoo of other nasties, but those SARS-type coronaviruses are probably more like the original SARS, i.e. not as transmissible as this one (again, it underwent major changes to make it adapted to humans). We eradicated SARS-1 and will almost certainly have to eradicate SARS-3, SARS-4, etc. in the future. But will we even try after the precedent established with SARS-2?

       
      1. Adrian D.

        @GM I bow to your knowledge regarding animal reservoirs.

        Regarding when the US knew about COV2 I’d first wonder whether they alone, apart from the Chinese would have this knowledge. If not just them, then why weren’t other countries taking more immediate steps then? I’d also suggest that there’s a rather large gulf between knowing about a virus and understanding it – I’m not sure we do now even a year and a half later. Yes the responses were slow, yes they were likely corrupt, but they were also (mostly) in line with what was then received wisdom regarding how to deal with such threats.

         
        1. GM

          Presumably other countries knew too, that is correct.

          As I said above, I have no idea who acted when based on what knowledge, and, most importantly, what motivation.

          The events after March 2020 are easy to explain with basic political economy.

          Those from January and February are full of unknowns.

GM

IM Doc has pointed out that past great pandemics had a first wave, then a more acute second wave, and somehow the virus and humans reached an accommodation. So it’s possible Mother Nature will bail us out after we go through some more collective pain.

This will probably be different from 1918 though. This is not the flu. Flu pandemics come and go, because immunity against individual flu strains is actually more durable, the problem there is antigenic drift, plus there are hundreds of different flu strains in fierce competition with each other, and they displace each other rapidly.

What we have here is the establishment of a completely new disease in the population — this virus has no competition with other less virulent versions of itself, and immunity against it is much more short lived, plus it does do a lot of antigenic drift, but none of the virulence properties are associated with the regions of the S protein that are relevant to that antigenic drift, so it will not lose them (moreover, they are actually important for viral fitness and thus maintained by selection).

So this is here to stay indefinitely. Which should have never been allowed.

There is a reason why smallpox was eradicated — it is a deadly pathogen with a respiratory mode of transmission, i.e. a very big problem. Once it was eradicated, there was nothing else left of similar severity and ease of spread. TB is still a big problem too, but TB is not an acute infection, it can take decades to kill you. HIV had 100% mortality initially, but it can be controlled with simple behavioral modifications as it is rather hard to catch. Etc.

Now we are likely back to where we were with smallpox. Keep in mind that so far the virus has been evolving towards worse, not better — we now have widespread variants that are probably twice as deadly as the original, and we have seen on at least one occasions the appearance of something even worse than those (B.1.616 seems to be 2.5x-3X deadlier than the regular strains). Thankfully that did not take hold, but it’s simply a matter of time that something else does. The original SARS-1 killed 5-10% of the infected, and SARS-CoV-2 likely does have the potential to eventually return to that level with enough passaging and selection.

IM Doc

With regard to the lab leak vs natural hypotheses of the origin of COVID 19.

I have sat through several lectures the last few weeks about this very topic.

From what I can tell – there are 2 main sticking points. You say correctly Lambert that nature is fully capable of producing all kinds of genetic variants – and that is very true. But there is great concern that SARSCOV2 may have broken the rules. Yes, there are rules to how this all goes down in Nature.

The genetics of this virus is the first sticking point. 2 issues there. For there to have been a furin complex placed in the RNA structure where it is would have required a recombinant event. My genetics friends tell me that the way this went down is so microscopically unlikely that it is just almost impossible. And then on top of that the furin complex has 2 arginine codons in a row. Why is that important? There are multiple arginine codons available – and the virus has 2 arginine codons just in that area that are NOT USED by beta coronaviruses except for 0.5 % of the time. Instead, the codons that are present in that location in COVID are exactly the CODONS that would have been manipulated into the virus by lab workers not the COVID virus if left to its own devices. The chances of both of these things happening together in nature (the recombination and the arginine codons) is virtually zero. This is why Dr. David Baltimore, an NIH virologist and Nobel Laureate has called the arginine codon problem a “smoking gun” for a lab leak. I am not saying they did it on purpose. There are lab leaks literally all the time. And the other problem was the Chinese Wuhan scientists were using a biosecurity status that was woefully unable to keep things clean – that has been confirmed.

Probably a bigger problem for the nature hypothesis is that absolutely no trace – NONE – of COVID or anything remotely similar has been found in any possible intermediary host animals in China or elsewhere. And believe me – they have been looking like fiends. The Chinese have a vested interest in finding an animal intermediary and it just has not been found. Not a hint. And this is unprecedented in medical science – intermediary hosts are usually identified within months and almost assuredly within a year. The lack of results here is strangely peculiar – and becomes more peculiar with each passing day.

So – we may never know – but the evidence is certainly tilting toward a lab leak. The medical community is really starting to come around on this as well. I have observed an almost 180 in just the past month. It is very very difficult to rebut either one of the above two issues.

This is really the sticky wicket we get into when we politicize the scientific method and process. When “science” becomes political it almost turns into cult-like behavior. Trump said a lot of stupid stuff all the time – and he also said the virus had leaked. Therefore – everything he says must be proven wrong – AND THAT IS NOT HOW SCIENCE WORKS.

This really matters in a big way – because our behavior toward the virus – and treatment must be tailored differently if the virus was man-made.

 
  1. Lambert Strether

    On furin cleavage, I’m firmly in the “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” camp. David Baltimore or no, we would never even be considering the Watchmaker Hypothesis if the adaptation had occurred in any other context but this one.

    On intermediary host animals, I seem to recall that it took a good long while to trace how AIDS made its leap to humans, and back in the early days, some thought the design of that molecule was so elegant that it, too, had to be man-made.

    On Wuhan Lab -> Wuhan Market, it seems to me that knowing Covid was out in the wild in Italy mitigates against the lab leak hypothesis. If the Wuhan Lab Leak was prior to September, why did the leak show up in the Wuhan Market only months later? Are we really saying that the virus leaked from the lab in Wuhan, was carried to Italy, and then carried back to Wuhan?

Jeremy Grimm

The tail of your comment:
“… our behavior toward the virus – and treatment must be tailored differently if the virus was man-made.”
How does would a man-made origin for the virus alter the best behaviors [public health response for preventing spread of the virus(?)] and treatment?

Are there good reasons for fiddling with the Corona virus other than to build better bio-weapons? Whether the virus came out of a bio-weapons lab, from a factory farm, or a wild animal market — all of those practices seem very unwise.

 
  1. IM Doc

    This is very much a Cliffs Note version. This was explained to me in a grand rounds I was zoomed in on about a week ago.

    Extremely complicated issues and I will do my best to make it accessible. More importantly, this is very offensive to some but it must be discussed in correct scientific terms.

    Most if not all of the human cell lines that viral clones and progeny in the labs are tested on derive from a cell lineage known as HeLa. This is also the case for a lot of oncology and immunology research. HeLa stands for Henrietta Lacks. Oprah made a movie out of the book written about this a few years ago. Truly fascinating. Ms. Lacks was African American.

    The hypothesis is that if the virus was indeed habituated in a lab to human tissue it would have been evolutionary selected for these cells. And those cells have other things going on unique to the gene structures of African American people. This may very well be why it seems to be much more problematic for that genetic subgroup – it may have more affinity for their cells. African Americans seem to have much different responses to this virus than even people from Africa.

    That would be critical to know. I am doing my best not to offend but science is science.

    A similar but profoundly more complicated issue is how a lab cultured virus may be affecting our kids. Also if it was birthed in a lab it has been through entirely way more evolutionary pressure than in nature and that would make it likely much more able to adapt in the wild. The speaker’s concern was that we may be already witnessing this.

    There is also concern that this virus came right out of the chute completely attuned to human cells. That is most definitely not natural.

    I think the most important issue in why this is so important is this must never be allowed to happen again if indeed it was from a lab. God only knows what other Godzillas have been cooked up.

    This is an issue that goes right to our survival as a species.

     
RE: “Deadly Fungi Are the Newest Emerging Microbe Threat All Over the World” [Scientific American].

  1. IM Doc

    With regard to the fungal infection link above. This is really starting to remind me of my years on the AIDS wards all those decades ago.

    Candida and Aspergillus are becoming increasingly common in the hospitals. They are also becoming more and more resistant to anti fungal therapy. And quite often they are very nasty and can overwhelm patients who are already ill in the ICU in a heartbeat. We do not have nearly as many anti-fungals as we do anti-bacterials and many of them are quite toxic in and of themselves – especially those for hospitalized patients.

    Candida and Aspergillus are one thing. I never saw what is going on in India now coming from a mile away. They are having a mini-outbreak of another type of fungal infection called Mucormycosis. That too was not all that unusual in AIDS patients.

    Here is the problem with “mucor” as it is often referred to in medicine. It is uniquely unresponsive to almost all anti-fungal therapy. It has a real predilection for the sinuses. And the only hope is usually surgical extirpation – as in cut your face off. It is an absolutely dreaded disease and in America is confined to mainly AIDS patients (which we do not see much anymore) out of control diabetics and the severely immunocompromised.

    Another fun fact – at least here in the USA – mucor usually takes weeks to fully develop. This is not usually an acute 3 or 4 day process. That rapidity of development seems to be happening routinely in the cases in India – and that is giving physicians a real pause for concern. I have not a clue why COVID would be doing this in India nor have I heard any salient explanations – it is all still so new.

    But that is definitely a curveball no one saw coming. Mucor is almost always associated with a completely overwhelmed immune system – and not an acute SARS-like syndrome like COVID.

    We live in fascinating times.




    Re: UPDATE “What Really Happened With that Weird Yankees COVID Outbreak” [David Wallace-Wells, The Atlantic].

IM Doc

With regard to the David Wallace-Wells Atlantic article –

All I can say about his commentary about the very definition of public health is YES YES YES.
Maybe, just maybe, we can start to reform our completely broken system when our citizens start to read and understand these issues.

Furthermore, this is one of the first times I have read in a national journal an issue that has concerned me from the beginning. That the cT – is really not a binary test – and many many of the COVID cases that were deemed positive may not have actually been acutely positive or acutely infectious. The discussion he does on the PCR testing is beautiful in its simplicity. We all really must understand this in the event something like this happens in the future.

I am not blaming the average guy. I have seen large numbers in the past few weeks of fully vaccinated, asymptomatic but positive patients. To this day, the cT are not reported to the clinician so we can ourselves easily determine if this is an acute large viral load or if this cT is 40 and likely represents lots of dead virus laying around. It is truly astounding that our federal agencies have not stepped in and made sure this was reported correctly. THESE PCR TESTS ARE NOT POSITIVE/NEGATIVE they are not a binary. How I would treat and react to these vaccinated PCR “positive” people would be totally different if I had the full numbers. But I do not. And after almost 18 months STILL do not.

Furthermore, it is completely unclear and what the motivation would be why they would not insist this is provided. This has been the grist for wild conspiracy theories all year. IF THEY WOULD JUST DO THEIR JOB AND GET THESE ISSUES WORKED OUT WE WOULD ALL BE IN A MUCH BETTER PLACE.

tegnost

Having just stayed up all night after my second moderna with a fever, racing heart, and body aches so that bezos and the vaccine makers among many others, can make billions. I will never take another mRNA vaccine ever again. when I told the attendant and the nurse both that I had a high blood pressure reaction to the 1st shot they were not at all interested and hand waved it off, indeed the nurse said said “your blood pressure varies so I wouldn’t worry” I pointed out that I take my blood pressure a lot and 150/95 is waaaayyyy higher than it’s ever been she was like oh that’s interesting. What this means to me is that in this stage 3 trial they don’t want to hear adverse effects. Both my sister and a resident of the island have auto immune problems, the guy on the island can’t get anyone to talk to him. I took mine for the team and that’s it.

 
  1. ambrit

    “Vaccine shaming” is taking many forms now. I have been given the “fish eye” once already in a store by other shoppers. (I am still masking.)
    The actions and attitudes on display by the public related to the Pandemic, at least here in the North American Deep South, are taking on the characteristics of a religious cult mind set. I can plainly see the physical imposition of vaccination upon the recalcitrant coming soon.
    Stay safe. Keep a low profile.

     
  2. IM Doc

    Massive extended increases in blood pressure for weeks after the vaccine have become commonplace in my practice. Fortunately no serious complications that I know of yet.

    And some patients BP is being persistently high. They seem to be fairly resistant to the usual meds.

    I am certain it has something to do with the vaccine’s action on the vascular endothelium.

    Take care of yourself. Take it easy the next several days. And know that despite the people at the vaccine clinic, yes this is a very common issue.

Someone blasted ivermectin because it's an anti-parisitic and IM Doc replied:
IM Doc

I am not understanding your point.

We also give millions of patients with lupus and rheumatoid arthritis plaquenil and that is for malaria.

We give millions neurontin for pain and that drug is just approved for seizures.

I am not understanding your point.
 

Jürgen

Ivermectin is an interesting and probably underutilized drug. Officially it is only approved for treating multicellular parasites (roundworms and ectoparasites), but there are indications of anti-viral, anti-inflamatory, and anti-protozoic effects. I raise free-range turkeys and have been using ivermectin to treat Histomoniasis, a disease caused by a protozoan, Histomonas meleagridis, to excellent effect. Before I started using ivermectin, by the time a turkey showed symptoms he’d die within 3 or 4 days no matter what I tried. Since using ivermectin I haven’t lost one turkey to Histomoniasis. I give them a high dose, 3-5 times the dose recommended (per kg) for anti-helmitic usage, repeated once or twice in intervals of 48 hours, and the birds show no negative effects, only immediate improvement from the symptoms of Histomoniasis… within 24 hours of the first dose they start eating again, for example.

Of course this is stricly anecdotal, but for me it shows that we have here a very cheap and safe medication that may be effective for a log of things we don’t use it for, but of course there is no money to be made with it, so also no money available to research it further!

 
  1. IM Doc

    There actually is an ivermectin product FDA approved for another condition.

    Called Soolantra.

    It is for rosacea of the face – WC Fields nose.

    This works very well. It is in a cream form. This works by locally tapering the immune response in the skin.

    So not just for parasites although that is it’s overwhelming use.

    When medical or science reporters write it is just approved for parasites you can know they are willfully lying. It is also FDA approved for this inflammatory condition.

     
    1. Jürgen

      There actually is an ivermectin product FDA approved for another condition. […] It is for rosacea of the face […] So not just for parasites […]

      Apparently the FDA approved ivermectin for rosacea because it kills Demodex mites which are thought to be a contributing cause of rosacea, so still exoparasites. You may well be right that reduces immune response (or at least inflamation due to immune response), but it seems that’s not why it was approved.

       
      1. IM Doc

        It is used by dermatologists for all kinds of inflammatory skin conditions having nothing to do with demodex mites – and does very well – the actual indication is for rosacea. This has nothing to do with the original post – but demodex mites are not thought to be a major contributing issue in most cases of either rosacea or these other inflammatory conditions. Many patients yes – most patients no. I just spoke with a dermatologist who specializes in derm issues in people with autoimmune and other inflammatory derm issues – wanting to make certain I was conveying accuracy – and he without hesitation informed me that the main mechanism here is its anti-inflammatory properties. Anti-parasitic creams of other preparations simply do not work well if at all with many of these inflammatory conditions while Soolantra has been a bit of a game-changer for many of them. I have also sat through two non-pharma lectures about the past 3 years – and both discussed this anti-inflammatory property. That is why dermatologists are exploring off label uses with this drug for other medical conditions with inflamed skin. He even informed me that oral ivermectin is now being explored for many inflammatory skin conditions and early research is very positive. In other words it does seem to have anti-inflammatory properties – and this may very well be the reason why if given to early positive COVID patients it prevents them from getting very ill. I have seen this with my own patients and my own practice repeatedly in the past several months since I started using it for that indication.

         
        1. IM Doc

          And one other thing –
          I have been to two Zoom lectures in the past 6 weeks or so – one a Grand Rounds and the other an Infectious Disease conference at my old academic medical center.

          Both were a discussion of Ivermectin for COVID. As is the usual case right now, both were making the case to debunk its use. So, therefore, you must take that mood into consideration while listening. These lectures were long before all this data coming out of India. I will say the evidence coming out of other parts of the world is compelling and fully available – but largely being avoided or ignored by American academic medicine. I am not sure how they will be able to ignore the Indian data at this point.

          As is often the case with off-label drug usage, we do not really have a good explanation – at least one that is totally confirmed – as to why Ivermectin would have any affect on COVID.

          One theory is that it has a direct negative effect on the spike protein. The other theory is that has a direct effect on the immune system and tamps down the severe reaction to COVID leading people to be less sick and less likely to be admitted to the hospital or die.

          In other words we just do not know. Further information to come I am certain. Stay tuned. As is often the case, we have no idea how it works. It is a very very safe drug. And I will reiterate, with my own eyes I saw how well it worked this winter during our surge.

  1. Phil in KC

    Is it reasonable to be agnostic on this treatment and say that we don’t yet know for sure?

    At this time last year a lot of folks were hot to trot for Hydroxychloroquine, including some of the geniuses of America’s Frontline Doctors. (Remember Dr. Stella?). Now, you don’t hear much about it at all. Maybe because it doesn’t really work. Maybe because one of the more pertinent conclusions of the few clinical studies concluded that Hydroxy actually harmed some patients and there was no definite proof it helped patients. You might also remember that Trump revealed he was taking Hydroxy as a preventative, again with no clinical proof of its efficacy. Not too long after that came out, he stopped taking it on the advice of several doctors who feared it would do much more harm than good. My point is that there’s a lot grasping at straws during a pandemic. Read Defoe on the great plague of 1665.

    WHO recommends using Ivermectin for Covid in clinical trial settings only at this time. Could there be another reason for not touting this treatment while trials are ongoing? Say, not wishing to raise false hopes? And also to remove yet another rationale for not getting vaccinated? (“Why get the shot when there’s a simple remedy available?”).

    Not trolling here, being very sincere. We’ve only been dealing with this disease for 16 months or so. How long did it take us to figure out AIDS, for example? I want to follow science, but at the same time I don’t want to breathe down their necks.

    As for the profit motive, someone has figured out how to charge thousands of dollars to insurance companies and their customers for insulin and it’s legal, so why would you expect anything different? On that front, I am cynical.

    A final thought: if Dr. Campbell finds Ivermectin promising, then I’m impressed as he has been quite reliable during this pandemic.

     
    1. Hayek's Heelbiter

      Further:

      “When inventor Frederick Banting discovered insulin in 1923, he refused to put his name on the patent. He felt it was unethical for a doctor to profit from a discovery that would save lives. Banting’s co-inventors, James Collip and Charles Best, sold the insulin patent to the University of Toronto for a mere $1. They wanted everyone who needed their medication to be able to afford it.”

       
    2. IM Doc

      I understand what you are saying about not raising false hopes.

      As a veteran of the AIDS pandemic – I would suggest that your concerns are very understandable – but quite frankly, now like then, we just simply do not have the time.

      A very similar analogue to what is happening now with Ivermectin was Bactrim back in the 1980s – it was absolutely shat all over as a therapy for PCP in AIDS patient by the medical establishment including Dr. Fauci himself. The medical establishment dictated that we had to use Inhaled pentamidine and other toxic therapies – ( with the similar issue that these therapies were also very toxic to the wallet). Bactrim was and is a very cheap antibiotic. I remember one lecture with an NIH speaker back then that laughed out loud – “We cannot treat the plague of the century with little old lady urine pills”.. Not unlike modern times – “Ivermectin – that is just dog flea pills you morons!”. It was only the networking of frontline docs all over the country that eventually changed the course. Today, we do not have nearly the patients with PCP that we did then – but no one would dream of using pentamidine and Bactrim is now the front line agent.

      There are too many patients dying in these hot-spots like India. The safety profile of Ivermectin is so positive that it should be used without delay in these situations. All we are getting from the USA and the EU is stonewalling and deception – not unlike what happened in the 1980s with our medical leaders.

      Go and read “And the Band Played On” – little has changed.

       
  2. derechos

    From the British Medical Journal
    Misleading clinical evidence and systematic reviews on ivermectin for COVID-19
    https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/04/21/bmjebm-2021-111678
    “Up to February 2021, the (Pan American Health Organization) identified twenty two ivermectin randomised clinical trials through a rapid review of current available literature.34 There is considerable heterogeneity in the population receiving ivermectin, with studies administering it to family contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases as a prophylactic measure and other studies using ivermectin for treatment of mild and moderate infected cases28 or even severe hospitalised patients. Applied dosis (sic) and outcomes of interest were also highly variable. Additionally, patients also received various cointerventions, and control groups received different kinds of comparators ranging from placebo or no intervention to standard care or even hydroxychloroquine. The authors claim that pooled estimates suggest beneficial effects with ivermectin, but the certainty of the evidence was very low due to high risk of bias and small number of events throughout the included studies. Most study results have been made publicly available as preprints or unpublished, with no peer review or formal editorial process. Others incorporated their results only in the clinical trial register, but nearly half of these randomised clinical trials had not been registered.”

    “Concluding, research related to ivermectin in COVID-19 has serious methodological limitations resulting in very low certainty of the evidence, and continues to grow. The use of ivermectin, among others repurposed drugs for prophylaxis or treatment for COVID-19, should be done based on trustable evidence, without conflicts of interest, with proven safety and efficacy in patient-consented, ethically approved, randomised clinical trials.”

     
    1. IM Doc

      In India – right now – you are seeing a gigantic trial taking place for all of humanity to see. I cannot wait to see how the medical establishment tries to play those data.

      This is so so familiar to those of us in the early days of AIDS.

       
      1. Phillip Cross

        Almost all the trial data is from tropical, third world areas. Places where there is a huge problem with untreated parasitic infestation because of the lack of clean water and poor sewage systems.

        It stands to reason that if you treat a patient’s parasites with ivermectin, they will become healthier, and more able to fight other infections, such as covid 19.

         
        1. Basil Pesto

          It doesn’t, however, stand to reason that the vast numbers reportedly seeing a benefit from ivermectin treatment in these ‘tropical, third world areas’ are only doing so because they all had latent parasitic infections. Come on.

           
          1. Yves Smith

            Please don’t Make Shit Up. About 2/3 of the population in Africa DOES take ivermectin regularly as a prophylactic. From IM Doc:

            Ivermectin is widely used as a prophylactic agent all over the continent – for sleeping sickness and multiple other parasitic agents. Estimated to be more than 2/3 of the population.

            It is called the Sunday, Sunday drug – because they usually take it every other Sunday. It comes in kits supplied by the country’s individual public health service.

            The first article is here – https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920304684

            I would direct you to FIG 1 and Fig 3 – the left is the ivermectin group – the middle is the other agent group – and the right is the no agent group – and you can see the results – absolutely striking. The authors do pretzels about the fact that this is retrospective and other things could possibly be going on – but I would say that is pretty striking. And also note – MOST of the continent of Africa is on ivermectin every 2 weeks.

            2nd article – https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33795896/

            APOC – is an organization from the UN – the African Program for Onchierasis – so these are the countries that use IVERMECTIN for that purpose – and then compared to the NON-APOC countries –

            The Conclusion – The incidence in mortality rates and number of cases is significantly lower among the APOC countries compared to non-APOC countries. That a mass public health preventive campaign against COVID-19 may have taken place, inadvertently, in some African countries with massive community ivermectin use is an attractive hypothesis. Additional studies are needed to confirm it.

            I love that word inadvertently –

            In brief – I think we must consider Ivermectin as one of the reasons Africa is straddling on the Zero line.

GM

As a generic, ivermectin is cheap and widely available, which means there would be a lot less money to be made by Big Pharma if it became the go-to medicine against covid.

Dexamethasone is even cheaper, also off-patent decades ago, and also widely available, yet there was no conspiracy to withhold it from the public. As soon as its effect of reducing mortality by half was demonstrated, it was adopted, and that has saved millions of lives.

 
  1. IM Doc

    The difference being is that steroids have been routinely and widely deployed in SARS like illnesses like this for decades. To some benefit and to some detriment. But the point being – medicine was used to thinking of steroids in those terms.

    Ivermectin is out of left field – and the skepticism was high. Including me. Until I started reading the RCT coming in from all over the planet, started using it – and noticing my hospitalization numbers dropping dramatically in the worst of the crisis here in our town.

    What I am saying – docs are used to thinking of steroids in this way – not so much ivermectin. It has a huge hurdle to overcome.

    FYI – dexamethasone is one steroid being used – budesonide – an inhaled steroid – is the one mainly being used here in the USA.

    1. IM Doc

      Thank you for posting this –

      Right up front – this from the abstract – Controls were standard of care [SOC] in five RCTs and placebo in five RCTs.

      My comment here – I would have a hard time distinguishing the difference between a placebo and “standard of care” – basically the standard of care at this point is to send positive patient home – and come to the ER if SOB worsens —- OR be dosed with monoclonal antibodies that cost 15000 dollars – and really does not have good data behind it either.

      But the kicker is when any research or papers are supported by “The Zuckerberg-Chan Initiative” my initial response is to use them for bird cage protection. It is by definition something emanating from the “Ministry of Truth” – I am not sure how much more of that I can take.

Stephen Bunnell

From an immunologist:

Re: “ Immunity to the Coronavirus May Persist for Years, Scientists Find New York Times (David L). The triumphalism is so blinding, I’m gonna have to wear shades. Breakthrough infections among the recently vaccinated suggest otherwise.”

1) Breakthrough infections in recently vaccinated are irrelevant unless happing > 2 weeks after the second shot of a two dose immunization. It takes that long to develop and accumulate protective antibodies.

2) In the US, most breakthrough infections are from variants. This is as expected because some variants differ enough from the vaccine that we are somewhat less well protected. This can be solved with a booster for the variants.

3) Some rare people respond poorly to the vaccine because they are immunocompromised. These people are over represented in breakthrough cases. This is normal. They are best protected by herd immunity, which reduces the amount of virus circulating.

4) These are among the most effective vaccines ever produced. If everyone could be vaccinated, the virus could be largely eliminated.

 
  1. Pat

    Said with no evidence attached.

    Let’s talk about the trials and data we do have. We have had these vaccines for less than a year. Their trials have been limited. We have anecdotal evidence that there has been less interest and follow through on reports of negative responses to being vaccinated, so the greatest knowledge of the extent and causes are limited to those causing hospitalization. Even with that the responses are more numerous and extensive then covered by the press. And we have it from the CDC itself that unless a breakthrough case is hospitalized it doesn’t existing as far as they are concerned.

    My point, your immunologist is making a great many definitive statements about subjects where they have limited or deeply compromised data. Unless they added a whole lot of caveats, this is At best deeply wishful thinking based on the sunniest press reports out there because otherwise…

     
      1. J.

        Um. I read that link, and it says:

        From the beginning of the so-called “pandemic”, waves of asymptomatic “cases” were deliberately created by running unreliable PCR tests on 100,000s of perfectly healthy people every day.

        The entirely predictable false positives were called “cases”, and these manufactured “cases” of Covid19 were used to build up the illusion of a global plague.

        I don’t think I’d take that site too seriously.

         
    1. Stephen Bunnell

      CDC Report

      10,000 breakthrough infections were detected in the ~100,000,000 fully vaccinated individuals in the US. That’s 0.01%. 160 died. That’s roughly 0.0002%. There have been 33,000,000 cases in the US, out of ~330,000,000 persons. That’s 10%. There have been ~600,000 deaths in the US. That’s ~0.2% of the US population. So, based on known breakthrough cases, the vaccines improve your protection from COVID by a factor of 1000x (at most). And based on deaths, the vaccines improve your protection from COVID by a factor of 1000x (definitively, see below).

      Anyone entering the hospital with COVID symptoms would be tested for COVID and detected. Therefore, the number of severe cases is *not* likely to be an undercount. However, they could be undercounting asymptomatic cases in the vaccinated. From clinical trials we estimated that most vaccines reduce asymptomatic infections by ~90% or more, so we might eventually expect to see 10,000,000 breakthrough cases. The fact that only 10,000 have been detected so far proves that real world efficacy is incredibly high.

      The viruses have a real world R value of 2-3 and some variants appear to have Rs of 4-5. At the worst case efficacy of 90%, the worst case R for variants in a fully vaccinated population becomes 0.4-0.5%. Anything below R=1 leads to viral extinction. Since real world efficacy could be as high as 99.99%, the vaccines seem awfully good.

      From the same report, 64% of breakthrough cases were from variants of concern. More recent studies post on biorXiv show even higher levels, 85% or more. But even in these cases the vaccines appear to be highly protective.

       
      1. Stephen Bunnell

        Apologies, real world efficacious as high as 99.9% one decimal place too many above. Same point holds.

         
  2. Lemmy Caution

    The CDC reports that more than 10,000 breakthrough cases have occurred in the U.S., though they admit that “the number of reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases is likely a substantial undercount of all SARS-CoV-2 infections among fully vaccinated persons.”
    The true number of breakthrough cases is going to get even fuzzier though, because going forward, the CDC intends to only count vaccinated people that are hospitalized and/or die from Covid as breakthrough cases. Not going to count those that have mild Covid or are asymptomatic. Trust the science!

     
    1. Katniss Everdeen

      Wait. You haven’t heard of all those “breakthrough” cases of polio and smallpox that occur with those vaccines?

      Yeah, neither have I.

       
      1. FluffytheObeseCat

        From Wikipedia, citing Smith JS (1990). Patenting the Sun: Polio and the Salk Vaccine. William Morrow & Co. ISBN 978-0-688-09494-2,

        “The results of the field trial were announced 12 April 1955 (the tenth anniversary of the death of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose paralytic illness was generally believed to have been caused by polio). The Salk vaccine had been 60–70% effective against PV1 (poliovirus type 1), over 90% effective against PV2 and PV3, and 94% effective against the development of bulbar polio.”

        The original Salk vaccine was only 70-90% effective in the 1950s. Which means there were breakthrough cases recorded. The post-vaccination case rate was orders of magnitude lower than the unvaccinated rate, so people kept taking it.

         
      2. R

        Sorry to ruin your sarcasm but the last recorded smallpox fatality (lab leak) had previously been vaccinated. So yes, we have heard of those and now so have you.

        My asperity on this point is that, like Mr Bunnell the immunologist above, I think it is irresponsible to conflate success or failure in:
        (i) protection against infection;
        (ii) protection against disease; and,
        (iii) prevention of transmission.

        No vaccine or immunity through infection offers 100% of (i). The immune system is a lottery, a chance survival by a virion and a mutation in its reproduction and you have an infection that can potentially evade your vaccine-derived antibodies, in all their permutations.

        Most good vaccines offer strong odds of (ii), at least as far as severe disease is concerned. The latest UK hospitalisation data suggests that the Pfizer and AZ vaccination programme in the UK is offering ~98% protection against hospitalisation, despite infection.

        https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1397884961227689984?s=20

        Sterilising immunity, benefit (iii), is another lottery. Indeed, some vaccines are responsible for vaccine escape outbreaks of some diseases, e.g. polio.

        Vaccination offers real hope to people of avoiding personal tragedy and some hope of offering public health benefits of “herd immunity” / elimination. To claim that vaccines don’t work because a tiny fraction of the vaccinated go on to develop infection, even severe disease, is a crazy and deeply irresponsible position.

        It is also not a phenomenon that could have been prevented / evaluated with “moar trials” because ultimately you only learn the limits of performance in mass vaccination. That’s why all drugs have Phase 4 pharmacovigilance / post-marketing surveillance.

         
        1. Chris

          Agree.

          Without intending ad hominem criticism, the comments further up the thread seem to be based in self-entitled individualism.

          The vaccination program is not intended to ensure that you as an individual are guaranteed absolute freedom from infection, illness and hospitalisation. It is a community effort, grounded in a sense of shared responsibility to each other, which we undertake to protect our community from the worst effects of the pandemic.

          Vaccination programs were ever thus. They deliver protection even to those unable to receive the vaccine (too young, too unwell).

           
          1. IM Doc

            I could not agree with you more about the community effort – if only Fauci and the CDC and our national media seemed to understand.

            Forcing vaccination at threat of loss of job, ability to travel, or humiliation is not anything close to the spirit of a “community effort, grounded in a sense of shared responsibility to each other.” When you actually bother to take the time to talk to those who are balking – they almost inevitably bring up all the lies and distortions that have been going on. Just look at flip-flop Fauci this week – last week NO LAB LEAK – this week – OH YEAH – LAB LEAK. And we are asking our citizens to entrust to these “no liability” liars their very lives. What could possibly go wrong?

            I will correct you on one thing – Self-entitled individualism is most definitely not the issue with the vast vast majority of the vaccine hesitant. Please stop saying that.

            Again – I will contend that anyone who is criticizing these folks needs to but spend one day in my shoes. I have never seen such incompetence from our government officials in my life – and that has consequences. All these PMC types running their mouths all the time seem to think that these hesitant people have the ability to understand the situation and also the time to even get vaccinated (see Yves post from yesterday). In reality, the ignorant and often hateful commentary coming from the PMC and their organs like the NYT betrays that they truly are just running their mouths, changing what they are saying as the wind blows. And the vaccine hesitant are not so stupid that they are not able to pick up on this instantly. Just look at how the myocarditis issue is being handled right now.

            I am hoping that we have already achieved the needed level of immunity from natural infections and those already vaccinated – because the vaccine program in this country is now DOA – trust me.

             
            1. Chris

              Sorry, Doc, I expressed myself poorly.

              My comment about entitlement was more about the way in which the effectiveness of the vaccine is being measured according to the safeguarding of individuals, rather than the degree of protection for the community.

              I agree entirely that the shabby management of most aspects of the rollout has eroded confidence, making hesitancy an entirely rational choice for many.

               
  3. IM Doc

    I really hope you are correct.

    I pray daily that all the end zone dancing being done right now is well placed.

    Like everyone else I want this thing over. And I want my patients and my community to live in health not fear.

    Excuse me however if I have a few nagging concerns.

    First of all I have any number of patients who have been evaluated for foreign travel or employment testing sweeps or what have you turn out to be positive. All fully vaccinated. Most without symptoms. Vaccines given months ago. Healthy immunocompetent patients. Way more than I feel comfortable with. And yet they are not being counted even in the case numbers daily. They are certainly not being evaluated for the presence of variants. In fact, the authorities could not care less about even calling them. It is really easy to have a victory celebration when you are not even counting those who do not fit your narrative.

    My other problem with your take is the best vaccines ever invented line so common today. Unlike the general American public, I have had the benefit of sitting through 30 years of Pharma propaganda. OxyContin was the best pain Med ever. Vioxx was the best and safest anti inflammatory ever. Trovan the best antibiotic ever invented.

    Spare me.

    Again, I hope beyond hope this is over. My years of listening to Pharma propaganda and their methods of spin all being used writ large right now really give me pause. The big difference that I did not see coming was their ability to turn my entire profession into non questioning zombies.

Amid a Pandemic, a Health Care Algorithm Shows Promise and Peril

Posted on May 27, 2021 by 

Yves here. Aside from my general allergy to AI and algos (among other things, they are only as good as their training sets, which raises questions of accuracy and consistency of inputs), another reason to be concerned with health care algos is they require collection of patient data to work, which means yet another source of data vulnerability. Our reader IM Doc pointed out:

In the USA – we have multiple large tertiary referral centers that have quite the national reputation – I would include in that list MD Anderson, MAYO, Johns Hopkins, and …… The Scripps Clinic in La Jolla, California. I have innumerable patients that are seen there – they cater to that type of clientele. I first heard about this impending disaster over the weekend – and today things appeared to get immeasurably worse there…… see the following article……

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/what-we-know-about-scripps-health-cyberattack/2598969/

I know we have a major pipeline down from ransomware now – but this is just as scary if not more so. This is a major medical system in this country – and it has been hobbled. All of my patient’s appointments there have been cancelled until June – they are admitting no one – and no one seems to know if it will be back or not anytime soon. It has already been going on for a week.

ANNNNDDDDD – they use Epic – which has repeatedly touted itself ( I have been in the meetings multiple times in my life) as completely impervious to hacking.

Again – I knew this day was coming at some point. These EMR systems are a complete disaster waiting to happen. The hackers have managed up to this point to take down non-EPIC systems at Bugtussle Memorial Hospital across the country – but nothing like Scripps.

The patient portal was among the systems taken out by hackers..and it was “Epic powered” or some such corporate jargon. While Scripps has been remarkably close-mouthed, available evidence says it’s not a reach to think Epic is implicated.

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