IM Doc pt 21

 

The Pandemic Is Us (But Now Mostly Them)

Posted on June 21, 2021 by Yves Smith

Yves here. I can no doubt be accused of showing my pessimistic colors, but the assumption that the Covid pandemic is largely a thing of the past in advanced economies is too smug for comfort. Even now, with most Americans who’ve been vaccinated having done so in the last four months (as in the immunity is still strong), outbreaks are occurring in populations with vaccination levels higher than US averages. For instance, from Public Radio Tulsa:

At least 25 staff members at the New Life Ranch Flint Valley camp in Colcord have tested positive, according to camp officials….

New Life Ranch does not require staff be vaccinated against COVID-19, but said 63% of employees had been.

And Moderna is saying that those vaccinated in December will soon need shots to protect against new variants. How many of the vaccinated have gotten the memo?

The article also seems to assume that Magic Vaccines will protect the elect in the global north; too bad about the refusniks and the poor. But as GM warned:

It is actually very dangerous for people to be happy with “transmission but little to no disease”

We are basically redoing the serial passaging experiments in mice that were done for SARS-1 and for this virus too, and which take it from a virus that causes little harm to mice to one that is highly lethal. We know very well that the evolutionary potential is there for at least 10% lethality, probably more (if the ancestor of this virus is indeed the one from the Yunnan mine, it was at more than 10% IFR).

So these few months of “normality” may well be paid for with an absolute slaughter further down the line.

I am following the databases carefully, and I am seeing Q498 mutations showing up here and there, all from areas of the world with high vaccination rates. Of course, those are also the places that are sequencing the most, so it’s a confounded observation, but who knows…

Also, the place in the world with the highest abundance of B.1.617.2 + K417N (which is now called AY.1) is California. K417N is a strongly immune evasive mutation so expect it to be just as virulent as regular B.1.617.2 but to break through a lot more often and probably with more serious symptoms too. But CA and everyone else is sequencing a lot less than before, and nobody is bothering to track what’s happening. And testing is dramatically down pretty much everywhere in the US, free mass testing sites are closing, etc…

I got another argument when I was in New York on why to not worry about Covid: all pandemics have fizzled out. The Russian pandemic of the late 1800s is now believed to have been a coronavirus, confirming that this one is not to be particularly feared. IM Doc felt compelled to clear his throat:

The statement that “all pandemics die out” and therefore we are done with this one is about as imbecile as Ibram X Kendi a few years ago at the Aspen Ideas forum when asked “What is your definition of racism?” – and his answer – “Racism is racist policies, leading to racist outcomes by racist people”. And that was that. The answer is so alarmingly stupid it is hard to know which logical fallacy to apply.

I have news for your MIT professor – ALL PANDEMICS DO DIE OUT – and this one will too. I am not sure there is anyone that disputes that. And when they die out they almost all turn into “routine nuisances” – but let us go back in time to the 1890s….

He is talking about OC43 – the coronavirus that is STILL here today – still infects half the world’s population every year – still causes untold billions of days off work from illness – and still kills upwards of 2000-10000 people every year. I guess that is the routine nuisance part. But let us go back in time to the 1890s.

That virus swept through the world 5-7 times depending on geography. It started in 1889. The second wave of 1890-1891 particulary that winter ( which we appear to be entering now with COVID 19) was the bomb in the UK, Western Europe and North America. It killed untold millions the world over. It destroyed the transportation (rail) and retail industry in the West. It led to the worst economic crisis up until that point in the history of America. Although not alone – there were other events that followed – the economic crisis it engendered eventually led to the development of the Fed. The economic strife led to the greatest Anarchist movement the USA and Western Europe had ever seen – eventually to the assassination of McKinley – and was the initial impetus for the Bolshevik Revolution – after the tensions it unleashed had been left to boil for a few more years. The Anarchist movement in the USA and all the issues it caused – bred an equal and opposite backlash in the rest of the country that led to the rise and almost total domination of multiple states by the KKK over the next several decades. It killed the only heir to the British throne – altering world history by placing a German family on the throne of the most powerful nation on Earth. The events unleashed on the world during that decade were the initial blows to Britain – the pre-eminent world power – and eventually led to the rise of the USA. Elites of all stripes were fleeing New York and putting places like Newport RI on the map. The economic conditions unleashed caused the wealth inequality to explode for a few years that only ended with Roosevelt and the trust-busting. (I see no one of similar stature on either side of the aisle – all we have now is Orange Hair Orangutans on one side and President Pudding Head on the other). There are many historians that are of the opinion that the economic, social and political chaos unleashed by this pandemic were the first dominoes that eventually led to WWI.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Now to the main event.

By Rajan Menon. Originally published at TomDispatch

Fifteen months ago, the SARS-CoV-2 virus unleashed Covid-19. Since then, it’s killed more than 3.8 million people worldwide (and possibly many more). Finally, a return to normalcy seems likely for a distinct minority of the world’s people, those living mainly in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and China. That’s not surprising.  The concentration of wealth and power globally has enabled rich countries to all but monopolize available vaccine doses. For the citizens of low-income and poor countries to have long-term pandemic security, especially the 46% of the world’s population who survive on less than $5.50 a day, this inequity must end, rapidly — but don’t hold your breath.

The Global North: Normalcy Returns

In the United States new daily infections, which peaked in early January, had plummeted 96% by June 16th. The daily death toll also dropped — by 92% — and the consequences were apparent. Big-city streets were bustling again, as shops and restaurants became ever busier. Americans were shedding their reluctance to travel by plane or train, as schools and universities prepared to resume “live instruction” in the fall. Zoom catch-ups were yielding to socializing the old-fashioned way.

By that June day, new infections and deaths had fallen substantially below their peaks in other wealthy parts of the world as well. In Canada, cases had dropped by 89% and deaths by 94%; in Europe by 87% and 87%; and in the United Kingdom by 84% and 99%.

Yes, European governments were warier than the U.S. about giving people the green light to resume their pre-pandemic lifestyles and have yet to fully abolish curbs on congregating and traveling. Perhaps recalling Britain’s previous winter surge, thanks to the B.1.1.7 mutation (initially discovered there) and the recent appearance of two other virulent strains of Covid-19, B.1.167 and B.1.617.2 (both first detected in India), Downing Street has retained restrictions on social gatherings. It’s even put off a full reopening on June 21st, as previously planned. And that couldn’t have been more understandable. After all, on June 17th, the new case count had reached 10,809, the highest since late March. Still, new daily infections there are less than a tenth what they were in early January. So, like the U.S., Britain and the rest of Europe are returning to some semblance of normalcy.

The Global South: A Long Road Ahead

Lately, the place that’s been hit the hardest by Covid-19 is the global south where countries are particularly ill-prepared.

Consider social distancing. People with jobs that can be done by “working from home” constitute a far smaller proportion of the labor force than in wealthy nations with far higher levels of education, mechanization, and automation, along with far greater access to computers and the Internet. An estimated 40% of workers in rich countries can work remotely. In lower- and middle-income lands perhaps 10% can do so and the numbers are even worse in the poorest of them.  

During the pandemic, millions of Canadians, Europeans, and Americans lost their jobs and struggled to pay food and housing bills. Still, the economic impact has been far worse in other parts of the world, particularly the poorest African and Asian nations. There, some 100 million people have fallen back into extreme poverty.

Such places lack the basics to prevent infections and care for Covid-19 patients. Running water, soap, and hand sanitizer are often not readily available. In the developing world, 785 million or more people lack “basic water services,” as do a quarter of health clinics and hospitals there, which have also faced crippling shortages of standard protective gear, never mind oxygen and ventilators.

Last year, for instance, South Sudan, with 12 million people, had only four ventilators and 24 ICU beds. Burkina Faso had 11 ventilators for its 20 million people; Sierra Leone 13 for its eight million; and the Central African Republic, a mere three for eight million. The problem wasn’t confined to Africa either. Virtually all of Venezuela’s hospitals have run low on critical supplies and the country had 84 ICU beds for nearly 30 million people.

Yes, wealthy countries like the U.S. faced significant shortages, but they had the cash to buy what they needed (or could ramp up production at home). The global south’s poorest countries were and remain at the back of the queue.

India’s Disaster

India has provided the most chilling illustration of how spiraling infections can overwhelm healthcare systems in the global south. Things looked surprisingly good there until recently. Infection and death rates were far below what experts had anticipated based on the economy, population density, and the highly uneven quality of its healthcare system. The government’s decision to order a phased lifting of a national lockdown seemed vindication indeed. As late as April, India reported fewer new cases per million than Britain, France, Germany, the U.K., or the U.S.

Never one for modesty, its Hindu nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, boasted that India had “saved humanity from a great disaster by containing Corona effectively.” He touted its progress in vaccination; bragged that it was now exporting masks, test kits, and safety equipment; and mocked forecasts that Covid-19 would infect 800 million Indians and kill a million of them. Confident that his country had turned the corner, he and his Bharatiya Janata Party held huge, unmasked political rallies, while millions of Indians gathered in vast crowds for the annual Kumbh Mela religious festival.

Then, in early April, the second wave struck with horrific consequences. By May 6th, the daily case count had reached 414,188. On May 19th, it would break the world record for daily Covid-19 deaths, previously a dubious American honor, recording almost 4,500 of them.

Hospitals quickly ran out of beds. The sick were turned away in droves and left to die at home or even in the streets, gasping for breath. Supplies of medical oxygen and ventilators ran out, as did personal protective equipment. Soon, Modi had to appeal for help, which many countries provided.

Indian press reports estimate that fully half of India’s 300,000-plus Covid-19 deaths have occurred in this second wave, the vast majority after March. During the worst of it, the air in India’s big cities was thick with smoke from crematoria, while, because of the shortage of designated cremation and burial sites, corpses regularly washed up on riverbanks.

We may never know how many Indians have actually died since April. Hospital records, even assuming they were kept fastidiously amid the pandemonium, won’t provide the full picture because an unknown number of people died elsewhere.

The Vaccination Divide

Other parts of the global south have also been hit by surging infections, including countries in Asia which had previously contained Covid-19’s spread, among them Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. Latin America has seen devastating surges of the pandemic, above all in Brazil because of President Jair Bolsonaro’s stunning combination of fecklessness and callousness, but also in Bolivia, Columbia, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. In Africa, Angola, Namibia, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are among 14 countries in which infections have spiked.  

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Meanwhile, the data reveal a gargantuan north-south vaccination gap. By early June, the U.S. had administered doses to nearly half the country’s population, in Britain slightly more than half, in Canada just over a third, and in the European Union approximately a third. (Bear in mind that the proportions would be far higher were only adults counted and that vaccination rates are still increasing far faster in these places than in the global south.)

Now consider examples of vaccination coverage in low-income countries.

• In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, Vietnam, and Zambia it ranged from 0.1% to 0.9% of the population.

• In Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Pakistan, Senegal, and South Africa, between 1% and 2.4%.

• In Botswana and Zimbabwe, which have the highest coverage in sub-Saharan Africa, 3% and 3.6% respectively.

• In Asia (China and Singapore aside), Cambodia at 9.6% was the leader, followed by India at 8.5%.  Coverage in all other Asian countries was below 5.4.%.

This north-south contrast matters because mutations first detected in the U.K., Brazil, India, and South Africa, which may prove up to 50% more transmissible, are already circulating worldwide. Meanwhile, new ones, perhaps even more virulent, are likely to emerge in largely unvaccinated nations. This, in turn, will endanger anyone who’s unvaccinated and so could prove particularly calamitous for the global south.

Why the vaccination gap? Wealthy countries, none more than the United States, could afford to spend billions of dollars to buy vaccines. They’re home as well to cutting-edge biotechnology companies like AstraZeneca, BioNTech, Johnson and Johnson, Moderna, and Pfizer. Those two advantages enabled them to preorder enormous quantities of vaccine, indeed almost all of what BioNTech and Moderna anticipated making in 2021, and even before their vaccines had completed clinical trials. As a result, by late March, 86% of all vaccinations had been administered in that part of the world, a mere 0.1% in poor regions.

This wasn’t the result of some evil conspiracy. Governments in rich countries weren’t sure which vaccine-makers would succeed, so they spread their bets. Nevertheless, their stockpiling gambit locked up most of the global supply.

Equity vs. Power

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who leads the World Health Organization (WHO), was among those decrying the inequity of “vaccine nationalism.” To counter it, he and others proposed that the deep-pocketed countries that had vacuumed up the supplies, vaccinate only their elderly, individuals with pre-existing medical conditions, and healthcare workers, and then donate their remaining doses so that other countries could do the same. As supplies increased, the rest of the world’s population could be vaccinated based on an assessment of the degree to which different categories of people were at risk.

COVAX, the U.N. program involving 190 countries led by the WHO and funded by governments and private philanthropies, would then ensure that getting vaccinated didn’t depend on whether or not a person lived in a wealthy country. It would also leverage its large membership to secure low prices from vaccine manufacturers.

That was the idea anyway. The reality, of course, has been altogether different. Though most wealthy countries, including the U.S. following Biden’s election, did join COVAX, they also decided to use their own massive buying power to cut deals directly with the pharmaceutical giants and vaccinate as many of their own as they could. And in February, the U.S. government took the additional step of invoking the Defense Production Act to restrict exports of 37 raw materials critical for making vaccines.

COVAX has received support, including $4 billion pledged by President Joe Biden for 2021 and 2022, but nowhere near what’s needed to reach its goal of distributing two billion doses by the end of this year. By May, in fact, it had distributed just 3.4% of that amount.

Biden recently announced that the U.S. would donate 500 million doses of vaccines this year and next, chiefly to COVAX; and at their summit this month, the G-7 governments announced plans to provide one billion altogether. That’s a large number and a welcome move, but still modest considering that 11 billion doses are needed to vaccinate 70% of the world.

COVAX’s problems have been aggravated by the decision of India, counted on to provide half of the two billion doses it had ordered for this year, to ban vaccine exports. Aside from vaccine, COVAX’s program is focused on helping low-income countries train vaccinators, create distribution networks, and launch public awareness campaigns, all of which will be many times more expensive for them than vaccine purchases and no less critical.

Another proposal, initiated in late 2020 by India and South Africa and backed by 100 countries, mostly from the global south, calls for the World Trade Organization (WTO) to suspend patents on vaccines so that pharmaceutical companies in the global south can manufacture them without violating intellectual property laws and so launch production near the places that need them the most.

That idea hasn’t taken wing either.

The pharmaceutical companies, always zealous about the sanctity of patents, have trotted out familiar arguments (recall the HIV-AIDS crisis): their counterparts in the global south lack the expertise and technology to make complex vaccines quickly enough; efficacy and safety could prove substandard; lifting patent restrictions on this occasion could set a precedent and stifle innovation; and they had made huge investments with no guarantees of success.

Critics challenged these claims, but the bio-tech and pharmaceutical giants have more clout, and they simply don’t want to share their knowledge. None of them, for instance, has participated in the WHO’s Covid-19 Technology Access Pool (C-TAP), created expressly to promote the voluntary international sharing of intellectual property, technology, and knowhow, through non-restricted licensing.

On the (only faintly) brighter side, Moderna announced last October that it wouldn’t enforce its Covid-19 vaccine patents during the pandemic — but didn’t offer any technical assistance to pharmaceutical firms in the global south. AstraZeneca gave the Serum Institute of India a license to make its vaccine and also declared that it would forgo profits from vaccine sales until the pandemic ends. The catch: it reserved the right to determine that end date, which it may declare as early as this July.

In May, President Biden surprised many people by supporting the waiving of patents on Covid-19 vaccines. That was a big change given the degree to which the U.S. government has been a dogged defender of intellectual property rights. But his gesture, however commendable, may remain just that. Germany dissented immediately. Others in the European Union seem open to discussion, but that, at best, means protracted WTO negotiations about a welter of legal and technical details in the midst of a global emergency.  

And the pharmaceutical companies will hang tough. Never mind that many received billions of dollars from governments in various forms, including equity purchases, subsidies, large preordered vaccine contracts ($18 billion from the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed program alone), and research-and-development partnerships with government agencies. Contrary to its narrative, Big Pharma never placed huge, risky bets to create Covid-19 vaccines.

How Does This End?

Various mutations of the virus, several highly infectious, are now traveling the world and new ones are expected to arise. This poses an obvious threat to the inhabitants of low-income countries where vaccination rates are already abysmally poor. Given the skewed distribution of vaccines, people there may not be vaccinated, even partially, until 2022, or later. Covid-19 could therefore claim more millions of lives.

But the suffering won’t be confined to the global south. The more the virus replicates itself, the greater the probability of new, even more dangerous, mutations — ones that could attack the tens of millions of unvaccinated in the wealthy parts of the world, too. Between a fifth and a quarter of adults in the U.S. and the European Union say that they’re unlikely to, or simply won’t, get vaccinated. For various reasons, including worry about the safety of vaccines, anti-vax sentiments rooted in religious and political beliefs, and the growing influence of ever wilder conspiracy theories, U.S. vaccination rates slowed starting in mid-April.

As a result, President Biden’s goal of having 70% of adults receive at least one shot by July 4th won’t be realized. With less than two weeks to go, at least half of the adults in 25 states still remain completely unvaccinated. And what if existing vaccines don’t ensure protection against new mutations, something virologists consider a possibility? Booster shots may provide a fix, but not an easy one given this country’s size, the logistical complexities of mounting another vaccination campaign, and the inevitable political squabbling it will produce.

Amid the unknowns, this much is clear: for all the talk about global governance and collective action against threats that don’t respect borders, the response to this pandemic has been driven by vaccine nationalism. That’s indefensible, both ethically and on the grounds of self-interest.
 

Isotope_C14June 21, 2021 at 5:08 am

“Meanwhile, new ones, perhaps even more virulent, are likely to emerge in largely unvaccinated nations.”

I think it should be abundantly clear by now that the vaccines are far from perfect, see here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk

I wouldn’t exactly do a victory lap for a death rate after infection with vaccination that looks like this.

And of course, we don’t know if this virus is lingering in the unvaccinated animals. Animals as a reservoir for human disease transmission is completely normal and to be expected. The way the animals are treated in the large factory farms is abhorrent and a natural recipe for a new variant. One can only hope that after lingering in the pigs or chickens that it becomes less interested in humans, but only time will tell.

 

1. IgnacioJune 21, 2021 at 7:28 am

   Yes, vaccination is only a helping hand, particularly less useful for viruses entering via de upper respiratory tract that transmit as easily as SARS CoV does. Furthermore, repeated vaccination will have a diminishing benefit/risk ratio as it has been shown with flu probably with both, reduced benefit and increased risks.

   Regarding virus evolution, who can predict what is to come? Evolution doesn’t necessarily goes in the direction of production of more and more virulent strains and each virus has limits in its evolving possibilities and the evolutionary dynamics change when viruses become endemic. We have not yet reached the point when most humans have ‘seen’ the virus (or its artificially produced spike protein via vaccines) but I would never use the term ‘serial passage experiment’ as I see this as the natural evolution of a new viral entry in humans as many other before. It is confounding and serial passage usually produces less virulent rather than more virulent variants. Serial passaging means not natural transmission so I would try to avoid using that term. I find it confusing.

    
   1. IM DocJune 21, 2021 at 7:49 am

      I could not agree more.

      We must remember that besides OC43 of the 1890s, we also have the precedent in coronaviruses of SARS and MERS. Neither one is with us today. It is still possible that COVID could weaken quickly as well.

      No one knows. Only time will tell and the introduction of the vaccines is a new twist. I will feel much better if we get through this next fall and winter without major problems. That would be my first relief.

      For now, one day at a time. Be thoughtful. And we should continue to look out for one another.

      I love this forum that we can all share with one another like adults. What a gift!

       
      1. PlutoniumKunJune 21, 2021 at 8:17 am

         I second your last comment – this forum is such a haven for high quality discussion. Your contributions (and Ignacio too) have been excellent and I think have helped all our understandings of what is facing us.

          
      2. Isotope_C14June 21, 2021 at 8:18 am

         Thanks to you in particular IM Doc, I’ve forwarded on your text to my siblings and friends when necessary.

         I’m really hoping you are right on the Ivermectin wall falling into itty bitty pieces. I’d like to see this thing over asap.

          
      3. IgnacioJune 21, 2021 at 10:05 am

         Be thougthful

         I can only say amen to that. There is a long road ahead with Covid and it will never be pleasant. It is my pleasure to share this space with people like you, Yves, Lambert, JL, PK, Isotope C14, and so many others.

          
      4. GMJune 21, 2021 at 12:47 pm

         MERS is very much with us, it is a camel virus, and has shown no intention of disappearing in the camel populations

         What saves us there is that it does not transmit well human to human, but that does not stop it from making the jump from camels to humans again and again.

         I am not sure how much it was tracked in 2020 and 2021, but there were more than 200 cases in 2019.

         Also, there is sufficient homology between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 for the two to recombine. Which in the long run may well happen given sufficient SARS-CoV-2 spread on the Arabian peninsula. Then things could get interesting — the highly optimized SARS-CoV-2 spike combined with the highly virulent MERS accessory proteins in “MERS-CoV-2″…

GeoCrackrJune 21, 2021 at 11:49 am

Minor quibble with the intro: the 1890s pandemic did not kill “the only heir to the British throne – altering world history by placing a German family on the throne of the most powerful nation on Earth.” It’s hard to know where to begin with this statement, but suffice to say that there was a direct line of succession from Victoria to Edward VII to George V (even if George’s elder brother was killed by the pandemic), and that family was German all along (Victoria’s family name Hanover should’ve been a dead giveaway). Sad to say getting these commonly-known and easily verifiable facts wrong throws all of the other assertions about what that pandemic into a suspicious light.

 

1. IM DocJune 21, 2021 at 12:21 pm

   The fault is all mine.

   A much more appropriate way to have phrased that is that the virus killed the heir apparent to the throne leading to the placement on the throne of family members who maybe were not brought up thinking they would be the “one”.

   Not unlike Elizabeth II’s father after the abdication of her uncle.

   I am an American – and not completely versed in the ins and outs of the British Monarchy. I have however been working with a very elderly gentleman in London who has been sending me all kinds of reports and articles from the time. I can assure you that there was all kinds of concern, chaos and confusion upon the untimely death of Victoria’s heir. It was not a stablizing event, that is for sure.

   This mistake should not reflect on the rest of the article. The plague in the 1890s, just like all pandemics was the catalyst for unleashing all kinds of forces that were already at play at the time but maybe not on the front burner. Absolutely similar to what COVID has done to our world. For example, COVID did not cause wealth inequality – but it sure helped to detonate some of the consequences for all to see.

   Pandemics tend to do that in history.

ArakawaJune 23, 2021 at 3:07 pm

The CDC meeting on myocarditis in vaccinated children (let’s do nothing, just keep an eye on it for 6 months) is currently in its public comment phase and the public comments are almost a wall-to-wall roasting of the bureaucrats. I wonder if they did a fair lottery to pick speakers, or if they didn’t and were unable to find enough supportive commenters. Doesn’t look like CDC is doing its job successfully (whether you think that job is to stop the vaccine based on the data, or whether it’s just to maintain the public’s confidence in whatever they do).

 

1. Laura in So CalJune 23, 2021 at 4:08 pm

   Lemmy Caution posted links to the CDC Decks at 11:16am in the comments to 6/23/2021 Links. The data is startling. They kept emphasizing that the kids “recovered.” Based on what I’ve read before and also on IM Doc’s comments, myocarditis can cause life long issues so even though their immediate symptoms have resolved, they may not be “recovered.”

    
   1. antidlcJune 23, 2021 at 4:16 pm

      I’ve noticed the press echoing “full recovery”.

      From the article I posted above:
      https://news.yahoo.com/rising-stakes-cdcs-vaccine-meeting-090007828.html
      The cases have been primarily from teens and men age 30 and younger. Symptoms were usually mild, and the overwhelming majority of patients who were hospitalized with the condition — 81% — made a full recovery.

       
   2. IM DocJune 23, 2021 at 4:37 pm

      Myocardial cells are one of the types of cells in our bodies that are not readily reproducible. Other examples of this are brain and nerve cells. They just simply do not turn over.

      There are organs that are made up of cells that are able to turn over but just do it when they absolutely need to – examples here would be the liver and all the endocrine glands.

      Then there are parts of the body that turn over for a living daily and do so intensely – examples would be the skin and the lining of the GI system.

      Because the myocardium does not reproduce itself, the amount of the initial damage from myocarditis is critical. FYI, the same thing happens in an acute MI – the dead part is just dead – and will forever be dead. The remaining undamaged tissue has the ability to “remodel” and take up some of the slack but the person will never have the same heart.

      To sum it up – with these cases of myocarditis – it is unlike an MI in that the damage is not confined to one area. The damage tends to be global throughout the heart all at once. Recovery is absolutely dependent on how bad that damage is. If recognized and treated early – it is possible to mitigate the damage somewhat depending on what all is involved. Some patients recover reasonably well because the damage was just not that severe. However, many times in my life, I have seen these patients struggle with heart failure symptoms from the moment it happens. We can help this with meds to some degree – and the rhythm problems can be helped with meds and defibrillators – but the patients will never be the same.

      I have been staggered by the reports I am reading from all over about these COVID vaccine young people – and the startling number of them that are having to be transplanted.

      The very concerning thing – there are now hospitals all over America where there are more admissions to the hospital from this COVID vaccine related myocarditis than ever were with the whole 18 months of COVID. I am referring only to the 12-17 age group. NOT THE WHOLE POPULATION. Unfortunately, this now includes my hospital – with zero 12-17 aged COVID admissions this whole time – and we have now had our very first teen admitted critically ill with myocarditis 3 days after the 2nd shot.

      I was on a Zoom conference yesterday about this issue – a very “elder statesman” ethics professor ended the discussion of this myocarditis issue and I almost started tearing up – our standards have fallen so far – he simply stated – the medical ethical principles of beneficience and non-harm are overwhelming in this case. If the CDC/FDA fails to act to protect these young people – let the word go forth – this profession has lost its way, it is corrupt to the core – and is now being run only in the interests of the corporations and not the patients.

      I am not “in the know” – I do not have any access to any deliberations or information that the public itself does not know.

      But I have to say – I could not agree with this gentleman more. We are hearing a lot today that this age group is going to be the new reservoir of the variants and unless vaccinated will be the downfall of us all – all I can say is EVIDENCE PLEASE –
       

      VerifyfirstJune 23, 2021 at 5:59 pm

      I don’t know anything about medical ethics, but are the rules different during a pandemic? Should they be? As uncomfortable as the rushed (and rigged–not testing, but relying only on self-reported symptoms of illness to derive efficacy numbers) rollout has been, can one really say we should have waited for full/robust results?

      Would we be better off today if no one had yet been vaccinated? I know the conversation here is about 12 to 17, but it is the same conversation regardless of the group in question. Here an article about a possible age 13 death, and the contervailing numbers of under age 19 cases and deaths, in Michigan.

      141,865 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in youth 19 years and younger since the start of the pandemic, and at least 16 residents in that age range have died from their illness.

      https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/06/michigan-teens-death-days-after-covid-19-vaccination-being-investigated.html

       

      1. IM DocJune 23, 2021 at 7:54 pm

         When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

         The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

         I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

         With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

         The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

         In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

         One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

         That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

         I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

         I have just about given up.

MiltonJune 23, 2021 at 7:20 pm

Hello IM Doc – Is this the same issue as happens with rheumatic fever patients? My granfather suffered from this at an early age and had always made it known that he would be lucky to live past 60. He died at 61.

 

1. Phillip AllenJune 23, 2021 at 7:48 pm

   Yes, exactly.

    
2. IM DocJune 23, 2021 at 8:12 pm

   What we are talking about with relation to these COVID vaccines is a bit different – but along the same lines. A better analog to this vaccine problem would be post-viral myocarditis. However, there is much that we do not know about this whole situation. There is some debate about what is even causing it and why it seems to get much more common the younger the patient is.

   Rheumatic fever – something which we rarely see anymore after the advent of antibiotics – is a reaction to certain strep. Both the actual organism and the immune system play a role.

   The kidneys and other organs can also be heavily involved. The patients often had an infection in youth – which damaged their heart and would later have big problems. In the case of rheumatic fever – yes there is some myocarditis – but this is mainly a problem with the heart valves. The pericardium could also be involved.

   Took care of many of these people as they got older. Lots of valve replacements, lots of rhythm problems, and lots of heart failure. They had mostly all died before the age of 65,

   Thankfully, we do not see it in the Western world very often at all now.
   
    

DagnarusJune 24, 2021 at 8:31 am

On the whole Myocarditis VAERS thing.

1) Israel puts case of heart inflammation in men aged 16-24 at 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000. It is very unlikely this will be different in the US. So the roughly 1 in 16000 figure suggested in the report is likely an undercount.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/israel-reports-link-between-rare-cases-heart-inflammation-and-covid-19-vaccination
2) Isn’t the data in VAERS supposed to be unreliable/poor quality/nothing to see here. Aren’t we supposed to be going off of V-SAFE data, which is so much better/more robust? If so, why are they using VAERS for the data in that report?
3) The report suggests the risk of severe adverse event increases by roughly a factor of 5 for the second shot compared to the first. If that pattern continues when you get your third/fourth booster shot, we are in trouble.

 

1. Katniss EverdeenJune 24, 2021 at 10:23 am

   Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of mRNA vaccine technology, was interviewed last night by Tucker Carlson. Not msnbs, not cnn, not abc, cbs or nbc. Fox.

   Nutshell version: cdc / fda are “overwhelmed.” They don’t have the data they are acting like they have, and are waiting for other countries–Scandanavia and israel–to tell them what’s what. They are not collecting the data that would permit “informed” vaccine decisions.

   https://video.foxnews.com/v/6260748415001#sp=show-clips

   6+ minutes.

    
   1. Krystyn PodgajskiJune 24, 2021 at 11:21 am

      Forget about VAERS. The medical community still has a hard time believing that patients have withdrawal symptoms from all sorts of psychiatric medications. They barely listen to the patients never mind gathering the data. It was only after seeing all these Internet forms pop up with people dealing with withdrawals and learning from each other how to get off of the medication’s did they start doing anything about it. Now that is some citizen science.

       
   2. Lemmy CautionJune 24, 2021 at 12:04 pm

      According to the ACIP meeting yesterday, a lot of data is being gathered.

      Some of the collection mechanisms they listed include the VAERS system, the V-Safe system, the Department of Defense, Medicare, and a network of private insurance companies that cover 12 million people. There may be others in addition to the countries you named.

      Whether all of these systems “talk” to each other in a meaningful way when it comes to sharing date is unknown by me. Also unknown if the various collection points document and group data the same way.

      Malone said elsewhere that when you aren’t confident in the numerator or the denominator, what data you do gather in basically useless.

      His assessment that the FDA is “chaotic” and “overwhelmed” surely doesn’t improve the situation any.

       
      1. JTMcPheeJune 24, 2021 at 2:08 pm

         So, a lot of those data streams are really being generated for money-making purposes, I would guess. Maybe the data “sharing” only goes one way, where the UNsurance companies are happy to receive what is gathered at public or others’ expense, and close the door to any outflows especially if they might intrude on the Narrative generation and the reaping of profits by such behaviors as kicking the vulnerable off the insurance rolls…

          
   3. KLGJune 24, 2021 at 3:25 pm

      Many will agree that Robert Malone is correct about CDC and FDA. Bret Weinstein described Dr. Malone is the inventor or mRNA vaccines. Here he is described as the inventor of mRNA vaccine technology. Dr. Malone was involved in the earliest work that showed how to transfect mammalian cells with RNA (1989, with Inder Verma, who has an interesting recent history). Dr. Malone subsequently worked on the components of the lipid nanoparticle/RNA transfection reagent. More recently he has published a few papers on rapid response to emerging infectious disease. A 2013 paper (6th of 8 authors) is entitled “Making vaccines “on demand,'” but never mentions mRNA. The paper on Zika virus (2016, 1st of 13 authors) never mentions mRNA, either. IIRC the trials of the Zika mRNA vaccine never showed a positive result. Dr. Malone’s latest published work (2021) is on famotidine (Pepcid) as a drug that mitigates COVID-19 disease. This is part of the effort to repurpose drugs to fight the pandemic, which could well be the best approach to COVID-19. But it wouldn’t make Pfizer billions. And therein lies the neoliberal rub.

      mRNA vaccines have been either obvious or ingenious for 30 to 50 years, take your pick. The technologies for using RNA as a reagent or a therapeutic agent have been developed iteratively by a cast of thousands over that time. None of these, the technology or the vaccine, has a single inventor.

       
2. IM DocJune 24, 2021 at 1:52 pm

   Just an anecdotal data point.

   I have now reported to the VAERS about a dozen complications related to the vaccines to VAERS.

   One of which was a death. 3 of which were other very significant medical issues known to be a problem with these vaccines with all 3 landing in the hospital. All 3 are currently fine. The other 8 are concerning issues that may or may not have a thing to do with the vaccines – and clearly stated in the VAERS reports I filed. It was all about the timing.

   In years past – as a board-certified Internist – I would have been contacted before the day was over by a practitioner to discuss the death and the 3 hospitalizations. When I was at the big academic center I worked with recently approved pharma stuff all the time – so this happened often enough to be noticeable.

   Not a single one of the 12 reports has appeared on the VAERS website at all. I have only received initial confirmatory emails. I have not been called or contacted in any way regarding any of the hospitalizations. The one death did generate a call requesting medical records – at which time I was informed that the “intake manager” felt that it had nothing to do with the vaccines at all.

   Not another peep has occurred. They are either completely underfunded, totally overwhelmed, or purposely spiking reports. I can come to no other conclusion.

   I have called my Rep and 2 Sen offices and have been kindly told that they do not get involved in medical issues.

    
   1. JBird4049June 24, 2021 at 3:11 pm

      Do not get involved in medical issues? Restated, they do not want to do their jobs, which is representing the people in their district, serving and helping them. What jackasses. If you can give them a generous bribe consideration donation, maybe they will deign to do so.

       
   2. Lemmy CautionJune 24, 2021 at 7:25 pm

      Are you able to track your 12 submissions by the VAERS ID number?

       
      1. IM DocJune 24, 2021 at 8:00 pm

         No – the confirmation email had a number – but it is not the official database number that goes in the VAERS –
         I have been looking once a week – none of them have showed up.

         They did not call me about the death report until an entire 6 weeks or so had passed.

1. AlfredJune 25, 2021 at 7:46 am

   What’s old is new again
   https://inequality.org/research/privatization-chicago/

   The Reason Foundation Yikes
   https://reason.org/commentary/chicago-leads-the-way-on-local/

    
2. Raymond SimJune 25, 2021 at 7:47 am

   Hypothesis: The emergence of mucormycosis as a complication of Covid-19 represents severe immunodeficiency induced by repeated reinfection with SARS-CoV-2.

   Is this not the Occam’s razor best candidate?

    
   1. IM DocJune 25, 2021 at 8:19 am

      Since the first reports started coming out about this, it is very clear that something very strange is going on.

      The organism causing Mucormycosis is actually everywhere. We as humans are likely exposed daily, the dose depending on where you are in the world and your location’s climate. Normal immune hosts dispatch it immediately upon contact.

      The only times I have ever seen this problem are in severely immunosuppressed individuals. Most notably AIDS and diabetics with chronic A1c levels above 12.

      It is horrible. Unfixable by antifungals, it often requires drastic exculpatory extraction. It has a predilection for the sinuses and so that means the patient gets half their face cut out often with eyes included. It is very often fatal.

      The immunsuppression normally required for this to get started requires years to develop normally. Even in the chemo related scenarios months are required.

      As Dr McCoy would say Jim, This is damn peculiar.

      We are still in the very early learning phase with this virus. This is screaming to us something about how it involves our immune systems. It could be very important. Sometimes, these types of things are instrumental in the solutions and cures. It is just very unfortunate for the patients. Thankfully, it does not appear to be very common.

Wiliam Hunter DuncanJune 28, 2021 at 7:55 am

Is it just me or is it starting to feel like this is the beginning of the end of civilization as we have known it and humanity is going to be preoccupied with this thing for the next generation at least?
 

1. IM DocJune 28, 2021 at 2:57 pm

   This is so far right on the script that many other pandemics have brought to the stage before.

   They are not necessarily the cause of the disruption – but they are what starts the dominos falling. They have a history of exposing all of society’s problems for all to see.

   This one has performed its task well.. We will see how bad the dominos falling is in the future compared to previous pandemics.

   I for one am not entirely sure this virus is yet done with humanity, but that which has already been unleashed has to play out as well.

thoughtful personJune 28, 2021 at 8:41 am

Based on CDC policy choices (no masks needed) the clear end plan is endemic spread, and annual (or biannual) booster shots.

This will likely mean a bit of a higher than normal fatality rate for the next few years, particularly among the 80+ cohorts and the unvaccinated 50+ (or younger depending on new variants for ex “delta+”?).

The drop in life expectancy, esp for lower income groups will continue…
 

IM DocJune 28, 2021 at 2:59 pm

That is of course assuming that people will be able to handle repeated mRNA vaccines. There is considerable doubt in my circles that will be possible. Each successive one brings on a stronger reaction. Sooner or later, the reactions are no longer minor.

All will be known soon enough.

ZsxJune 28, 2021 at 12:12 pm

The widely distributed “50% of new cases are in fully vaccinated people” headline is misleading at best, and your gloss on what the data tells us reflects a common misunderstanding. See here: https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1408773450882236418?s=20

 

1. MantidJune 28, 2021 at 2:13 pm

   Good discussion, but two different “answers”. There is no “gloss on what the data tells us”, since neither article has the source data. Surowiecki proposes in a titter feed (no source documents) that here’s only “about” 50 infections in “fully” vaccinated people. The Business Insider quotes Chezy Levy, the director-general of Israel’s health ministry in saying “we are still checking how many vaccinated people have also been infected”. To me the implication is that there are vaccinated people getting the Delta variant (and presumably passing it on). Bad news since extrapolating either of these numbers out to the global population means a successful evolution on the part of the virus. And there are many variants to come. There is no “gloss” on the data since neither article supplies data, other than cursory. We will see what we will see.

    
   1. ZsxJune 28, 2021 at 2:37 pm

      Fair enough. More thorough analysis here (though also Twitter), FWIW: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770?s=20

       
2. IM DocJune 28, 2021 at 3:05 pm

   I simply cannot stress this too many times.

   When articles in the media or twitter feeds are only talking in percentage terms, it is very often being severely manipulated. This has unfortunately been a Big Pharma hoodwinking tool for a long long time. It is much easier for our brains to work in the realm of percentage thinking than actual raw numbers.

   Since the beginning of this pandemic, percentage terms have been used by all sides to make very misleading assertions. This is likely no different. Although I am still poring over these articles right now.

   RAW NUMBERS PLEASE – and yet – I am not sure I have seen a raw numbers article or discussion since the very beginning outside of medical/epidemiological/statistical reports. They never exist in the mainstream press.

   I wonder why?

NVTJune 28, 2021 at 10:34 am

It has been posited that the common cold began as the 1889-1890 Russian flu that killed over 1 million people out of a population of 1.5 billion. https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/qa-why-history-suggests-covid-19-here-stay.html
Nicholas Christakis’ book Apollo’s Arrow is an entertaining and well-written book on epidemics through history, including the Russian flu and our current pandemic. He has a chapter discussing the Russian flu and its impact. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/books/review/apollos-arrow-coronavirus-nicholas-christakis.html

 

1. Larry YJune 28, 2021 at 12:05 pm

   More accurately, one of the viruses that causes the “common cold” is thought to be behind the Russian or Asiatic Flu pandemic. Common cold may be cause by rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, and others.

   The suspect coronavirus behind that pandemic, OC43, has been shown to cause breakouts of pneumonia in recent decades. It is also known to infect neurons.

   My relatively uninformed guess of why it becomes less lethal is a form of the hygiene hypothesis. Children get repeated infections to these viruses, and build up partial lifetime protection to them. When the immune system gets compromised, that’s when the infections become deadlier.

    
2. IM DocJune 28, 2021 at 3:14 pm

   The “common cold” is caused by multiple different viruses in multiple different families – rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, RSV viruses – and coronaviruses. You are referring to coronavirus OC43 – which is indeed almost assuredly the cause of the 1890s pandemic. That is but one of 4 coronaviruses circulating around the world yearly that cause the “cold”. There are multiple dozens of others in the other families.

   Even though they are in completely different families – and have completely different traits – there is one thing linking them all together – there really is no such thing as “herd immunity” – it simply does not exist in viruses that cause these types of illnesses. If there were, we would not have them year after year after year…….Why our citizenry is not being informed ( and even being deceived) of simple facts like this is just beyond me.

   Not all virus families act alike. Herd immunity is a foundational feature of things like measles and smallpox – it is basically a non-actor in respiratory viruses and influenza.

MikelJune 28, 2021 at 2:25 pm

I searched and you all don’t have a “WTH??? ” section for things like this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/study-finds-pfizer-and-moderna-covid-vaccines-may-offer-protection-for-years-as-australia-struggles-to-contain-delta-variant-11624892042?mod=home-page/
“The study, conducted by researchers at Washington University in St. Louis, suggests that people vaccinated with those shots may not need boosters, as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. It also found that people who have recovered from COVID before being vaccinated “produced the most robust serologic responses,” showing they enjoy a strong immune response….”

So protection will last for years if all the things that have already happened hadn’t happened already….

 

1. IM DocJune 28, 2021 at 6:23 pm

   If this is referring to the same study I think it is – the N was 12. And it was not very well delineated what exactly some of their endpoint definitions were.

   Another big problem I have seen a lot of lately – extrapolating big assertions from in vitro studies in perfect conditions. This is not what the vaccines will be dealing with in the real world.

   I saw this same amazing headline the past few days – from articles like this – and the NYT – and immediately called my virologist friend – IS THIS REALLY THE CASE? – answer – a big meh. Maybe – but not a very comprehensive study in his opinion.

   I hope beyond hope it is true – but the tell in your above quote is the following – as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. That is a very big if – and really negates the fireworks of the headlines in my opinion.

   Having these kinds of things litigated in the mainstream media in my opinion is doing far more harm than good. This is medical science – everything at this point is a hypothesis – and the way many of these articles are framed makes a non-informed reader feel certainty.

Lemmy CautionJune 29, 2021 at 8:07 am

The Hill article “Researchers pinpoint possible signs you have Covid-19 after being vaccinated,” uncritically repeats the tired CDC talking point that

“Less than 1 in 10,000 people so far have experienced a “breakthrough case” in the United States…”

The link included to support that assertion leads to the Harvard Health Publishing article “Should we track all breakthrough cases of Covid-19?” In that article, the author writes,

“More than 10,000 of these so-called breakthrough cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the US. Seems like a large number, right? But keep in mind that nearly 133 million people have been vaccinated, so these breakthrough cases represent less than one in 10,000. “

This is flat out wrong however; the CDC report states quite clearly that the number of breakthrough cases in the period of the study was 10,000 out of 101,000,000 fully vaccinated people – not 130,000,000 people.

So claiming that the breakthrough rate is less than one on 10,000 is wrong.

Even saying that the breakthrough rate is 1 in 10,000 is a stretch – the CDC acknowledges in the same report that the 10,000 breakthrough case number is likely an undercount.

If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,0000 fully vaccinated people.

But according to another CDC study involving healthcare workers, first responders and other essential workers, the breakthrough rate was about 90 per 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

So now the rate of breakthrough cases varies from .01% (as claimed in the Hill article), to .1% (the Massachusetts report) all the way to 9% (the CDC essential worker study).

Instead of mindlessly repeating CDC talking points, the media should be doing more to shed light on realistic breakthrough rates and which groups are especially at risk.

 

1. Lemmy CautionJune 29, 2021 at 9:14 am

   Correction — The sentence above should read:

   If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

    
2. voislavJune 29, 2021 at 10:22 am

   People keep forgetting that vaccine effectiveness is 95% at best, most vaccines are in 80-90% range. That means that at least 5% (more like 10-20%) of vaccinated people did not develop full immunity. Breakthrough infections are not a surprise as we are in the middle of the pandemic and there is ample opportunity to get infected.

   Even 9% number from the CDC essential worker survey is very realistic, this is a group that has high level of exposure to potentially infected people, so it’s very likely to get infected if they didn’t develop immunity.

   So none of this is surprising, this is a very different situation from other vaccines where you preemptively vaccinate the population to prevent the spread of the disease. In that case the disease has to spread through a largely vaccinated populace, so typically the probability of infection is very low. Here we are dealing with vaccinating for a virus that’s already widespread, it’s a very different mechanism.

    
   1. IM DocJune 29, 2021 at 3:19 pm

      The 95% number I believe you are quoting is from the original Pfizer study from December.

      The “most other vaccines are in 80-90% range” – I am not certain what you are talking about. It depends on what exact parameter to which you are referring. When making comparisons like that , it is essential to compare apples to apples – and not apples to oranges. For example, the 60% flu shot number often discussed every year – is not at all the same parameter as the 95% RRR in case numbers in the Pfizer study for their COVID vaccine.

      That Pfizer number is a relative risk reduction – (NOT absolute risk reduction). Relative and absolute risk reduction mean two completely different things. The issue is that RRR of 95% does not in any way imply a blanket 95% protection. This is not what that number means, especially in trials like the original Pfizer trial, where the vast majority of patients in both the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups remained negative throughout the whole study.

      However, our media has gone out of its way to make certain though that every American thinks that. Big Pharma uses these RRR numbers in their ads and glossies all the time – because in general they look really good to people who do not marinate themselves in medical statistics every day.

      We should also remember that historically in vaccine research, the risk reduction in case numbers was not a leading indicator of efficacy of the vaccine. Rather, mortality efficacy, morbidity efficacy, and pathogen transmission rates were far more important – and critical to be done before approval was even considered. We have a bit more info about these critical parameters than we did in December but not much.

      What I am saying is that this 95% number should in no way be being used in the way you are thinking about it – nor should the RRR be being used in the way the CDC or the vast majority of the media are using it in their reporting. It just does not mean what people think it does. And the case number reduction rate is only a very minor point in the actual efficacy of a vaccine.
      
       

Comments

“Meanwhile, new ones, perhaps even more virulent, are likely to emerge in largely unvaccinated nations.”

I think it should be abundantly clear by now that the vaccines are far from perfect, see here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk

I wouldn’t exactly do a victory lap for a death rate after infection with vaccination that looks like this.

And of course, we don’t know if this virus is lingering in the unvaccinated animals. Animals as a reservoir for human disease transmission is completely normal and to be expected. The way the animals are treated in the large factory farms is abhorrent and a natural recipe for a new variant. One can only hope that after lingering in the pigs or chickens that it becomes less interested in humans, but only time will tell.

“Meanwhile, new ones, perhaps even more virulent, are likely to emerge in largely unvaccinated nations.”

I think it should be abundantly clear by now that the vaccines are far from perfect, see here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk

I wouldn’t exactly do a victory lap for a death rate after infection with vaccination that looks like this.

And of course, we don’t know if this virus is lingering in the unvaccinated animals. Animals as a reservoir for human disease transmission is completely normal and to be expected. The way the animals are treated in the large factory farms is abhorrent and a natural recipe for a new variant. One can only hope that after lingering in the pigs or chickens that it becomes less interested in humans, but only time will tell.

MERS is very much with us, it is a camel virus, and has shown no intention of disappearing in the camel populations

What saves us there is that it does not transmit well human to human, but that does not stop it from making the jump from camels to humans again and again.

I am not sure how much it was tracked in 2020 and 2021, but there were more than 200 cases in 2019.

Also, there is sufficient homology between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 for the two to recombine. Which in the long run may well happen given sufficient SARS-CoV-2 spread on the Arabian peninsula. Then things could get interesting — the highly optimized SARS-CoV-2 spike combined with the highly virulent MERS accessory proteins in “MERS-CoV-2″…

Yes, vaccination is only a helping hand, particularly less useful for viruses entering via de upper respiratory tract that transmit as easily as SARS CoV does. Furthermore, repeated vaccination will have a diminishing benefit/risk ratio as it has been shown with flu probably with both, reduced benefit and increased risks.

Regarding virus evolution, who can predict what is to come? Evolution doesn’t necessarily goes in the direction of production of more and more virulent strains and each virus has limits in its evolving possibilities and the evolutionary dynamics change when viruses become endemic. We have not yet reached the point when most humans have ‘seen’ the virus (or its artificially produced spike protein via vaccines) but I would never use the term ‘serial passage experiment’ as I see this as the natural evolution of a new viral entry in humans as many other before. It is confounding and serial passage usually produces less virulent rather than more virulent variants. Serial passaging means not natural transmission so I would try to avoid using that term. I find it confusing.

Yes, vaccination is only a helping hand, particularly less useful for viruses entering via de upper respiratory tract that transmit as easily as SARS CoV does. Furthermore, repeated vaccination will have a diminishing benefit/risk ratio as it has been shown with flu probably with both, reduced benefit and increased risks.

Regarding virus evolution, who can predict what is to come? Evolution doesn’t necessarily goes in the direction of production of more and more virulent strains and each virus has limits in its evolving possibilities and the evolutionary dynamics change when viruses become endemic. We have not yet reached the point when most humans have ‘seen’ the virus (or its artificially produced spike protein via vaccines) but I would never use the term ‘serial passage experiment’ as I see this as the natural evolution of a new viral entry in humans as many other before. It is confounding and serial passage usually produces less virulent rather than more virulent variants. Serial passaging means not natural transmission so I would try to avoid using that term. I find it confusing.

MERS is very much with us, it is a camel virus, and has shown no intention of disappearing in the camel populations

What saves us there is that it does not transmit well human to human, but that does not stop it from making the jump from camels to humans again and again.

I am not sure how much it was tracked in 2020 and 2021, but there were more than 200 cases in 2019.

Also, there is sufficient homology between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 for the two to recombine. Which in the long run may well happen given sufficient SARS-CoV-2 spread on the Arabian peninsula. Then things could get interesting — the highly optimized SARS-CoV-2 spike combined with the highly virulent MERS accessory proteins in “MERS-CoV-2″…

I could not agree more.

We must remember that besides OC43 of the 1890s, we also have the precedent in coronaviruses of SARS and MERS. Neither one is with us today. It is still possible that COVID could weaken quickly as well.

No one knows. Only time will tell and the introduction of the vaccines is a new twist. I will feel much better if we get through this next fall and winter without major problems. That would be my first relief.

For now, one day at a time. Be thoughtful. And we should continue to look out for one another.

I love this forum that we can all share with one another like adults. What a gift!

I could not agree more.

We must remember that besides OC43 of the 1890s, we also have the precedent in coronaviruses of SARS and MERS. Neither one is with us today. It is still possible that COVID could weaken quickly as well.

No one knows. Only time will tell and the introduction of the vaccines is a new twist. I will feel much better if we get through this next fall and winter without major problems. That would be my first relief.

For now, one day at a time. Be thoughtful. And we should continue to look out for one another.

I love this forum that we can all share with one another like adults. What a gift!

I second your last comment – this forum is such a haven for high quality discussion. Your contributions (and Ignacio too) have been excellent and I think have helped all our understandings of what is facing us.

I second your last comment – this forum is such a haven for high quality discussion. Your contributions (and Ignacio too) have been excellent and I think have helped all our understandings of what is facing us.

I second your last comment – this forum is such a haven for high quality discussion. Your contributions (and Ignacio too) have been excellent and I think have helped all our understandings of what is facing us.

Thanks to you in particular IM Doc, I’ve forwarded on your text to my siblings and friends when necessary.

I’m really hoping you are right on the Ivermectin wall falling into itty bitty pieces. I’d like to see this thing over asap.

Thanks to you in particular IM Doc, I’ve forwarded on your text to my siblings and friends when necessary.

I’m really hoping you are right on the Ivermectin wall falling into itty bitty pieces. I’d like to see this thing over asap.

Thanks to you in particular IM Doc, I’ve forwarded on your text to my siblings and friends when necessary.

I’m really hoping you are right on the Ivermectin wall falling into itty bitty pieces. I’d like to see this thing over asap.

Be thougthful

I can only say amen to that. There is a long road ahead with Covid and it will never be pleasant. It is my pleasure to share this space with people like you, Yves, Lambert, JL, PK, Isotope C14, and so many others.

Be thougthful

I can only say amen to that. There is a long road ahead with Covid and it will never be pleasant. It is my pleasure to share this space with people like you, Yves, Lambert, JL, PK, Isotope C14, and so many others.

Be thougthful

I can only say amen to that. There is a long road ahead with Covid and it will never be pleasant. It is my pleasure to share this space with people like you, Yves, Lambert, JL, PK, Isotope C14, and so many others.

MERS is very much with us, it is a camel virus, and has shown no intention of disappearing in the camel populations

What saves us there is that it does not transmit well human to human, but that does not stop it from making the jump from camels to humans again and again.

I am not sure how much it was tracked in 2020 and 2021, but there were more than 200 cases in 2019.

Also, there is sufficient homology between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 for the two to recombine. Which in the long run may well happen given sufficient SARS-CoV-2 spread on the Arabian peninsula. Then things could get interesting — the highly optimized SARS-CoV-2 spike combined with the highly virulent MERS accessory proteins in “MERS-CoV-2″…

MERS is very much with us, it is a camel virus, and has shown no intention of disappearing in the camel populations

What saves us there is that it does not transmit well human to human, but that does not stop it from making the jump from camels to humans again and again.

I am not sure how much it was tracked in 2020 and 2021, but there were more than 200 cases in 2019.

Also, there is sufficient homology between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 for the two to recombine. Which in the long run may well happen given sufficient SARS-CoV-2 spread on the Arabian peninsula. Then things could get interesting — the highly optimized SARS-CoV-2 spike combined with the highly virulent MERS accessory proteins in “MERS-CoV-2″…

MERS is very much with us, it is a camel virus, and has shown no intention of disappearing in the camel populations

What saves us there is that it does not transmit well human to human, but that does not stop it from making the jump from camels to humans again and again.

I am not sure how much it was tracked in 2020 and 2021, but there were more than 200 cases in 2019.

Also, there is sufficient homology between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 for the two to recombine. Which in the long run may well happen given sufficient SARS-CoV-2 spread on the Arabian peninsula. Then things could get interesting — the highly optimized SARS-CoV-2 spike combined with the highly virulent MERS accessory proteins in “MERS-CoV-2″…

Minor quibble with the intro: the 1890s pandemic did not kill “the only heir to the British throne – altering world history by placing a German family on the throne of the most powerful nation on Earth.” It’s hard to know where to begin with this statement, but suffice to say that there was a direct line of succession from Victoria to Edward VII to George V (even if George’s elder brother was killed by the pandemic), and that family was German all along (Victoria’s family name Hanover should’ve been a dead giveaway). Sad to say getting these commonly-known and easily verifiable facts wrong throws all of the other assertions about what that pandemic into a suspicious light.

Minor quibble with the intro: the 1890s pandemic did not kill “the only heir to the British throne – altering world history by placing a German family on the throne of the most powerful nation on Earth.” It’s hard to know where to begin with this statement, but suffice to say that there was a direct line of succession from Victoria to Edward VII to George V (even if George’s elder brother was killed by the pandemic), and that family was German all along (Victoria’s family name Hanover should’ve been a dead giveaway). Sad to say getting these commonly-known and easily verifiable facts wrong throws all of the other assertions about what that pandemic into a suspicious light.

The fault is all mine.

A much more appropriate way to have phrased that is that the virus killed the heir apparent to the throne leading to the placement on the throne of family members who maybe were not brought up thinking they would be the “one”.

Not unlike Elizabeth II’s father after the abdication of her uncle.

I am an American – and not completely versed in the ins and outs of the British Monarchy. I have however been working with a very elderly gentleman in London who has been sending me all kinds of reports and articles from the time. I can assure you that there was all kinds of concern, chaos and confusion upon the untimely death of Victoria’s heir. It was not a stablizing event, that is for sure.

This mistake should not reflect on the rest of the article. The plague in the 1890s, just like all pandemics was the catalyst for unleashing all kinds of forces that were already at play at the time but maybe not on the front burner. Absolutely similar to what COVID has done to our world. For example, COVID did not cause wealth inequality – but it sure helped to detonate some of the consequences for all to see.

Pandemics tend to do that in history.

The fault is all mine.

A much more appropriate way to have phrased that is that the virus killed the heir apparent to the throne leading to the placement on the throne of family members who maybe were not brought up thinking they would be the “one”.

Not unlike Elizabeth II’s father after the abdication of her uncle.

I am an American – and not completely versed in the ins and outs of the British Monarchy. I have however been working with a very elderly gentleman in London who has been sending me all kinds of reports and articles from the time. I can assure you that there was all kinds of concern, chaos and confusion upon the untimely death of Victoria’s heir. It was not a stablizing event, that is for sure.

This mistake should not reflect on the rest of the article. The plague in the 1890s, just like all pandemics was the catalyst for unleashing all kinds of forces that were already at play at the time but maybe not on the front burner. Absolutely similar to what COVID has done to our world. For example, COVID did not cause wealth inequality – but it sure helped to detonate some of the consequences for all to see.

Pandemics tend to do that in history.

The fault is all mine.

A much more appropriate way to have phrased that is that the virus killed the heir apparent to the throne leading to the placement on the throne of family members who maybe were not brought up thinking they would be the “one”.

Not unlike Elizabeth II’s father after the abdication of her uncle.

I am an American – and not completely versed in the ins and outs of the British Monarchy. I have however been working with a very elderly gentleman in London who has been sending me all kinds of reports and articles from the time. I can assure you that there was all kinds of concern, chaos and confusion upon the untimely death of Victoria’s heir. It was not a stablizing event, that is for sure.

This mistake should not reflect on the rest of the article. The plague in the 1890s, just like all pandemics was the catalyst for unleashing all kinds of forces that were already at play at the time but maybe not on the front burner. Absolutely similar to what COVID has done to our world. For example, COVID did not cause wealth inequality – but it sure helped to detonate some of the consequences for all to see.

Pandemics tend to do that in history.

The CDC meeting on myocarditis in vaccinated children (let’s do nothing, just keep an eye on it for 6 months) is currently in its public comment phase and the public comments are almost a wall-to-wall roasting of the bureaucrats. I wonder if they did a fair lottery to pick speakers, or if they didn’t and were unable to find enough supportive commenters. Doesn’t look like CDC is doing its job successfully (whether you think that job is to stop the vaccine based on the data, or whether it’s just to maintain the public’s confidence in whatever they do).

The CDC meeting on myocarditis in vaccinated children (let’s do nothing, just keep an eye on it for 6 months) is currently in its public comment phase and the public comments are almost a wall-to-wall roasting of the bureaucrats. I wonder if they did a fair lottery to pick speakers, or if they didn’t and were unable to find enough supportive commenters. Doesn’t look like CDC is doing its job successfully (whether you think that job is to stop the vaccine based on the data, or whether it’s just to maintain the public’s confidence in whatever they do).

When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

I have just about given up.

Lemmy Caution posted links to the CDC Decks at 11:16am in the comments to 6/23/2021 Links. The data is startling. They kept emphasizing that the kids “recovered.” Based on what I’ve read before and also on IM Doc’s comments, myocarditis can cause life long issues so even though their immediate symptoms have resolved, they may not be “recovered.”

Lemmy Caution posted links to the CDC Decks at 11:16am in the comments to 6/23/2021 Links. The data is startling. They kept emphasizing that the kids “recovered.” Based on what I’ve read before and also on IM Doc’s comments, myocarditis can cause life long issues so even though their immediate symptoms have resolved, they may not be “recovered.”

I’ve noticed the press echoing “full recovery”.

From the article I posted above:
https://news.yahoo.com/rising-stakes-cdcs-vaccine-meeting-090007828.html
The cases have been primarily from teens and men age 30 and younger. Symptoms were usually mild, and the overwhelming majority of patients who were hospitalized with the condition — 81% — made a full recovery.

I’ve noticed the press echoing “full recovery”.

From the article I posted above:
https://news.yahoo.com/rising-stakes-cdcs-vaccine-meeting-090007828.html
The cases have been primarily from teens and men age 30 and younger. Symptoms were usually mild, and the overwhelming majority of patients who were hospitalized with the condition — 81% — made a full recovery.

I’ve noticed the press echoing “full recovery”.

From the article I posted above:
https://news.yahoo.com/rising-stakes-cdcs-vaccine-meeting-090007828.html
The cases have been primarily from teens and men age 30 and younger. Symptoms were usually mild, and the overwhelming majority of patients who were hospitalized with the condition — 81% — made a full recovery.

When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

I have just about given up.

When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

I have just about given up.

When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

I have just about given up.

I don’t know anything about medical ethics, but are the rules different during a pandemic? Should they be? As uncomfortable as the rushed (and rigged–not testing, but relying only on self-reported symptoms of illness to derive efficacy numbers) rollout has been, can one really say we should have waited for full/robust results?

Would we be better off today if no one had yet been vaccinated? I know the conversation here is about 12 to 17, but it is the same conversation regardless of the group in question. Here an article about a possible age 13 death, and the contervailing numbers of under age 19 cases and deaths, in Michigan.

141,865 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in youth 19 years and younger since the start of the pandemic, and at least 16 residents in that age range have died from their illness.

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/06/michigan-teens-death-days-after-covid-19-vaccination-being-investigated.html

I don’t know anything about medical ethics, but are the rules different during a pandemic? Should they be? As uncomfortable as the rushed (and rigged–not testing, but relying only on self-reported symptoms of illness to derive efficacy numbers) rollout has been, can one really say we should have waited for full/robust results?

Would we be better off today if no one had yet been vaccinated? I know the conversation here is about 12 to 17, but it is the same conversation regardless of the group in question. Here an article about a possible age 13 death, and the contervailing numbers of under age 19 cases and deaths, in Michigan.

141,865 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in youth 19 years and younger since the start of the pandemic, and at least 16 residents in that age range have died from their illness.

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/06/michigan-teens-death-days-after-covid-19-vaccination-being-investigated.html

When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

I have just about given up.

When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

I have just about given up.

When I read reports in the media the past few days about this issue – and on comments on social media – there is quite a bit of conflating of data. We compare the vaccine side effects in this age group vs the incidence of COVID and COVID deaths NOT JUST in that age group but the entire population. That is just one example.

The further confounding issue is in this age group – basically teenagers – the case numbers are likely very very high – indeed – I would not be surprised if upwards of 2/3 of them are “case numbers” and not deaths or hospitalizations – because they so vanishingly rarely ever get sick with COVID and certainly not ending up dying. But yet have been positive and therefore a case number. Making vaccination even more questionable. I would say your 141 thousand case number is too small by orders of magnitude.

I know this because all year – I have had family clusters and school clusters pre and post vaccine – and almost invariably the teenagers and kids were postiive and completely asymptomatic. It is very likely that the vast majority of them were positive and never came to attention. They just simply do not get sick or just minimally so.

With regard to the death counts. My state has less than 10 teens dying of COVID for the entire past year. When the state medical examiner actually did a deep dive on these cases – only 2 were ever determined to actually have died FROM COVID – all the others were suicides, traumas, etc that died WITH COVID. The 2 who actually did die were both kids with severe issues – across the country cystic fibrosis, sickle cell, and other immunocompetence disorders have been the mainstay of this group. In general, under age 20 just do not die or get hospitalized with this problem – it is very very very unusual – and they almost universally have some kind of severe co-morbidity.

The incidence of admission and morbidity with these vaccines with relation to this myocarditis is actually higher than the COVID issues. Anyone who tries to “statistics” their way out of that fact is LYING to you. The CDC readily admits that their myocarditis numbers are very likely way undercounted. And still their numbers are indicating a rise in myocarditis from baseline between 25-200 times higher in this age group. In many people with any kind of myocarditis – they may never know about it because their cardiac reserve is so excellent at their younger age. As these people age and lose that reserve, we may be looking at this problem to be with us for some time.

In general – the rules and tenets of medical ethics are universal and not dependent on the times. There are very specific tenets that do take into account community and population issues vs individual issues like we deal with in pandemics. I could not even begin to go into it here – but the numbers are simply not there for these kids to be taking the risk for the benefit of society – they just simply are not. The risk/benefit to them and the benefit to society just do not match up. If this was a much more deadly disease – or other issues that were different – that may change the calculus.

One thing that would change the calculus that is being trumpeted to the heavens today as I have pointed out – is if there was evidence that leaving them unvaccinated would cause them to be a reservoir. The fact that these vaccines appear to be NON STERILIZING ( not stopping transmission) in the real world makes that point completely mute. But it is getting real mileage out there today.

That is why I asked for EVIDENCE PLEASE of that assertion.

I hate to say this – but say it I must. I have sat and watched the Pharma industry lie, manipulate, pretty up and just make up statistical numbers for 30 years of my life. In every conceivable way. I have sat through hours of journal clubs and gatherings to discuss this with colleagues. Medical statistics and epidemiology – are very very difficult to learn and apply (lots of confounding) – but because of the presence of certain statistical methods are very easy for marketing firms to really manipulate. THEY ARE DOING THIS NOW IN SPADES. This time, it is not just for an audience of doctors – it is for the whole country. Certainly, people in the media know this – and know exactly what Pharma is doing – but the marketing and manipulation just keeps flowing out to the public.

I have just about given up.

Hello IM Doc – Is this the same issue as happens with rheumatic fever patients? My granfather suffered from this at an early age and had always made it known that he would be lucky to live past 60. He died at 61.

Hello IM Doc – Is this the same issue as happens with rheumatic fever patients? My granfather suffered from this at an early age and had always made it known that he would be lucky to live past 60. He died at 61.

Yes, exactly.

Yes, exactly.

Yes, exactly.

What we are talking about with relation to these COVID vaccines is a bit different – but along the same lines. A better analog to this vaccine problem would be post-viral myocarditis. However, there is much that we do not know about this whole situation. There is some debate about what is even causing it and why it seems to get much more common the younger the patient is.

Rheumatic fever – something which we rarely see anymore after the advent of antibiotics – is a reaction to certain strep. Both the actual organism and the immune system play a role.

The kidneys and other organs can also be heavily involved. The patients often had an infection in youth – which damaged their heart and would later have big problems. In the case of rheumatic fever – yes there is some myocarditis – but this is mainly a problem with the heart valves. The pericardium could also be involved.

Took care of many of these people as they got older. Lots of valve replacements, lots of rhythm problems, and lots of heart failure. They had mostly all died before the age of 65,

Thankfully, we do not see it in the Western world very often at all now.

 

What we are talking about with relation to these COVID vaccines is a bit different – but along the same lines. A better analog to this vaccine problem would be post-viral myocarditis. However, there is much that we do not know about this whole situation. There is some debate about what is even causing it and why it seems to get much more common the younger the patient is.

Rheumatic fever – something which we rarely see anymore after the advent of antibiotics – is a reaction to certain strep. Both the actual organism and the immune system play a role.

The kidneys and other organs can also be heavily involved. The patients often had an infection in youth – which damaged their heart and would later have big problems. In the case of rheumatic fever – yes there is some myocarditis – but this is mainly a problem with the heart valves. The pericardium could also be involved.

Took care of many of these people as they got older. Lots of valve replacements, lots of rhythm problems, and lots of heart failure. They had mostly all died before the age of 65,

Thankfully, we do not see it in the Western world very often at all now.

 

What we are talking about with relation to these COVID vaccines is a bit different – but along the same lines. A better analog to this vaccine problem would be post-viral myocarditis. However, there is much that we do not know about this whole situation. There is some debate about what is even causing it and why it seems to get much more common the younger the patient is.

Rheumatic fever – something which we rarely see anymore after the advent of antibiotics – is a reaction to certain strep. Both the actual organism and the immune system play a role.

The kidneys and other organs can also be heavily involved. The patients often had an infection in youth – which damaged their heart and would later have big problems. In the case of rheumatic fever – yes there is some myocarditis – but this is mainly a problem with the heart valves. The pericardium could also be involved.

Took care of many of these people as they got older. Lots of valve replacements, lots of rhythm problems, and lots of heart failure. They had mostly all died before the age of 65,

Thankfully, we do not see it in the Western world very often at all now.

 

On the whole Myocarditis VAERS thing.

1) Israel puts case of heart inflammation in men aged 16-24 at 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000. It is very unlikely this will be different in the US. So the roughly 1 in 16000 figure suggested in the report is likely an undercount.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/israel-reports-link-between-rare-cases-heart-inflammation-and-covid-19-vaccination
2) Isn’t the data in VAERS supposed to be unreliable/poor quality/nothing to see here. Aren’t we supposed to be going off of V-SAFE data, which is so much better/more robust? If so, why are they using VAERS for the data in that report?
3) The report suggests the risk of severe adverse event increases by roughly a factor of 5 for the second shot compared to the first. If that pattern continues when you get your third/fourth booster shot, we are in trouble.

On the whole Myocarditis VAERS thing.

1) Israel puts case of heart inflammation in men aged 16-24 at 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000. It is very unlikely this will be different in the US. So the roughly 1 in 16000 figure suggested in the report is likely an undercount.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/israel-reports-link-between-rare-cases-heart-inflammation-and-covid-19-vaccination
2) Isn’t the data in VAERS supposed to be unreliable/poor quality/nothing to see here. Aren’t we supposed to be going off of V-SAFE data, which is so much better/more robust? If so, why are they using VAERS for the data in that report?
3) The report suggests the risk of severe adverse event increases by roughly a factor of 5 for the second shot compared to the first. If that pattern continues when you get your third/fourth booster shot, we are in trouble.

Many will agree that Robert Malone is correct about CDC and FDA. Bret Weinstein described Dr. Malone is the inventor or mRNA vaccines. Here he is described as the inventor of mRNA vaccine technology. Dr. Malone was involved in the earliest work that showed how to transfect mammalian cells with RNA (1989, with Inder Verma, who has an interesting recent history). Dr. Malone subsequently worked on the components of the lipid nanoparticle/RNA transfection reagent. More recently he has published a few papers on rapid response to emerging infectious disease. A 2013 paper (6th of 8 authors) is entitled “Making vaccines “on demand,'” but never mentions mRNA. The paper on Zika virus (2016, 1st of 13 authors) never mentions mRNA, either. IIRC the trials of the Zika mRNA vaccine never showed a positive result. Dr. Malone’s latest published work (2021) is on famotidine (Pepcid) as a drug that mitigates COVID-19 disease. This is part of the effort to repurpose drugs to fight the pandemic, which could well be the best approach to COVID-19. But it wouldn’t make Pfizer billions. And therein lies the neoliberal rub.

mRNA vaccines have been either obvious or ingenious for 30 to 50 years, take your pick. The technologies for using RNA as a reagent or a therapeutic agent have been developed iteratively by a cast of thousands over that time. None of these, the technology or the vaccine, has a single inventor.

Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of mRNA vaccine technology, was interviewed last night by Tucker Carlson. Not msnbs, not cnn, not abc, cbs or nbc. Fox.

Nutshell version: cdc / fda are “overwhelmed.” They don’t have the data they are acting like they have, and are waiting for other countries–Scandanavia and israel–to tell them what’s what. They are not collecting the data that would permit “informed” vaccine decisions.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6260748415001#sp=show-clips

6+ minutes.

Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of mRNA vaccine technology, was interviewed last night by Tucker Carlson. Not msnbs, not cnn, not abc, cbs or nbc. Fox.

Nutshell version: cdc / fda are “overwhelmed.” They don’t have the data they are acting like they have, and are waiting for other countries–Scandanavia and israel–to tell them what’s what. They are not collecting the data that would permit “informed” vaccine decisions.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6260748415001#sp=show-clips

6+ minutes.

Forget about VAERS. The medical community still has a hard time believing that patients have withdrawal symptoms from all sorts of psychiatric medications. They barely listen to the patients never mind gathering the data. It was only after seeing all these Internet forms pop up with people dealing with withdrawals and learning from each other how to get off of the medication’s did they start doing anything about it. Now that is some citizen science.

Forget about VAERS. The medical community still has a hard time believing that patients have withdrawal symptoms from all sorts of psychiatric medications. They barely listen to the patients never mind gathering the data. It was only after seeing all these Internet forms pop up with people dealing with withdrawals and learning from each other how to get off of the medication’s did they start doing anything about it. Now that is some citizen science.

Forget about VAERS. The medical community still has a hard time believing that patients have withdrawal symptoms from all sorts of psychiatric medications. They barely listen to the patients never mind gathering the data. It was only after seeing all these Internet forms pop up with people dealing with withdrawals and learning from each other how to get off of the medication’s did they start doing anything about it. Now that is some citizen science.

So, a lot of those data streams are really being generated for money-making purposes, I would guess. Maybe the data “sharing” only goes one way, where the UNsurance companies are happy to receive what is gathered at public or others’ expense, and close the door to any outflows especially if they might intrude on the Narrative generation and the reaping of profits by such behaviors as kicking the vulnerable off the insurance rolls…

According to the ACIP meeting yesterday, a lot of data is being gathered.

Some of the collection mechanisms they listed include the VAERS system, the V-Safe system, the Department of Defense, Medicare, and a network of private insurance companies that cover 12 million people. There may be others in addition to the countries you named.

Whether all of these systems “talk” to each other in a meaningful way when it comes to sharing date is unknown by me. Also unknown if the various collection points document and group data the same way.

Malone said elsewhere that when you aren’t confident in the numerator or the denominator, what data you do gather in basically useless.

His assessment that the FDA is “chaotic” and “overwhelmed” surely doesn’t improve the situation any.

According to the ACIP meeting yesterday, a lot of data is being gathered.

Some of the collection mechanisms they listed include the VAERS system, the V-Safe system, the Department of Defense, Medicare, and a network of private insurance companies that cover 12 million people. There may be others in addition to the countries you named.

Whether all of these systems “talk” to each other in a meaningful way when it comes to sharing date is unknown by me. Also unknown if the various collection points document and group data the same way.

Malone said elsewhere that when you aren’t confident in the numerator or the denominator, what data you do gather in basically useless.

His assessment that the FDA is “chaotic” and “overwhelmed” surely doesn’t improve the situation any.

So, a lot of those data streams are really being generated for money-making purposes, I would guess. Maybe the data “sharing” only goes one way, where the UNsurance companies are happy to receive what is gathered at public or others’ expense, and close the door to any outflows especially if they might intrude on the Narrative generation and the reaping of profits by such behaviors as kicking the vulnerable off the insurance rolls…

So, a lot of those data streams are really being generated for money-making purposes, I would guess. Maybe the data “sharing” only goes one way, where the UNsurance companies are happy to receive what is gathered at public or others’ expense, and close the door to any outflows especially if they might intrude on the Narrative generation and the reaping of profits by such behaviors as kicking the vulnerable off the insurance rolls…

So, a lot of those data streams are really being generated for money-making purposes, I would guess. Maybe the data “sharing” only goes one way, where the UNsurance companies are happy to receive what is gathered at public or others’ expense, and close the door to any outflows especially if they might intrude on the Narrative generation and the reaping of profits by such behaviors as kicking the vulnerable off the insurance rolls…

Many will agree that Robert Malone is correct about CDC and FDA. Bret Weinstein described Dr. Malone is the inventor or mRNA vaccines. Here he is described as the inventor of mRNA vaccine technology. Dr. Malone was involved in the earliest work that showed how to transfect mammalian cells with RNA (1989, with Inder Verma, who has an interesting recent history). Dr. Malone subsequently worked on the components of the lipid nanoparticle/RNA transfection reagent. More recently he has published a few papers on rapid response to emerging infectious disease. A 2013 paper (6th of 8 authors) is entitled “Making vaccines “on demand,'” but never mentions mRNA. The paper on Zika virus (2016, 1st of 13 authors) never mentions mRNA, either. IIRC the trials of the Zika mRNA vaccine never showed a positive result. Dr. Malone’s latest published work (2021) is on famotidine (Pepcid) as a drug that mitigates COVID-19 disease. This is part of the effort to repurpose drugs to fight the pandemic, which could well be the best approach to COVID-19. But it wouldn’t make Pfizer billions. And therein lies the neoliberal rub.

mRNA vaccines have been either obvious or ingenious for 30 to 50 years, take your pick. The technologies for using RNA as a reagent or a therapeutic agent have been developed iteratively by a cast of thousands over that time. None of these, the technology or the vaccine, has a single inventor.

Many will agree that Robert Malone is correct about CDC and FDA. Bret Weinstein described Dr. Malone is the inventor or mRNA vaccines. Here he is described as the inventor of mRNA vaccine technology. Dr. Malone was involved in the earliest work that showed how to transfect mammalian cells with RNA (1989, with Inder Verma, who has an interesting recent history). Dr. Malone subsequently worked on the components of the lipid nanoparticle/RNA transfection reagent. More recently he has published a few papers on rapid response to emerging infectious disease. A 2013 paper (6th of 8 authors) is entitled “Making vaccines “on demand,'” but never mentions mRNA. The paper on Zika virus (2016, 1st of 13 authors) never mentions mRNA, either. IIRC the trials of the Zika mRNA vaccine never showed a positive result. Dr. Malone’s latest published work (2021) is on famotidine (Pepcid) as a drug that mitigates COVID-19 disease. This is part of the effort to repurpose drugs to fight the pandemic, which could well be the best approach to COVID-19. But it wouldn’t make Pfizer billions. And therein lies the neoliberal rub.

mRNA vaccines have been either obvious or ingenious for 30 to 50 years, take your pick. The technologies for using RNA as a reagent or a therapeutic agent have been developed iteratively by a cast of thousands over that time. None of these, the technology or the vaccine, has a single inventor.

Many will agree that Robert Malone is correct about CDC and FDA. Bret Weinstein described Dr. Malone is the inventor or mRNA vaccines. Here he is described as the inventor of mRNA vaccine technology. Dr. Malone was involved in the earliest work that showed how to transfect mammalian cells with RNA (1989, with Inder Verma, who has an interesting recent history). Dr. Malone subsequently worked on the components of the lipid nanoparticle/RNA transfection reagent. More recently he has published a few papers on rapid response to emerging infectious disease. A 2013 paper (6th of 8 authors) is entitled “Making vaccines “on demand,'” but never mentions mRNA. The paper on Zika virus (2016, 1st of 13 authors) never mentions mRNA, either. IIRC the trials of the Zika mRNA vaccine never showed a positive result. Dr. Malone’s latest published work (2021) is on famotidine (Pepcid) as a drug that mitigates COVID-19 disease. This is part of the effort to repurpose drugs to fight the pandemic, which could well be the best approach to COVID-19. But it wouldn’t make Pfizer billions. And therein lies the neoliberal rub.

mRNA vaccines have been either obvious or ingenious for 30 to 50 years, take your pick. The technologies for using RNA as a reagent or a therapeutic agent have been developed iteratively by a cast of thousands over that time. None of these, the technology or the vaccine, has a single inventor.

No – the confirmation email had a number – but it is not the official database number that goes in the VAERS –
I have been looking once a week – none of them have showed up.

They did not call me about the death report until an entire 6 weeks or so had passed.

Just an anecdotal data point.

I have now reported to the VAERS about a dozen complications related to the vaccines to VAERS.

One of which was a death. 3 of which were other very significant medical issues known to be a problem with these vaccines with all 3 landing in the hospital. All 3 are currently fine. The other 8 are concerning issues that may or may not have a thing to do with the vaccines – and clearly stated in the VAERS reports I filed. It was all about the timing.

In years past – as a board-certified Internist – I would have been contacted before the day was over by a practitioner to discuss the death and the 3 hospitalizations. When I was at the big academic center I worked with recently approved pharma stuff all the time – so this happened often enough to be noticeable.

Not a single one of the 12 reports has appeared on the VAERS website at all. I have only received initial confirmatory emails. I have not been called or contacted in any way regarding any of the hospitalizations. The one death did generate a call requesting medical records – at which time I was informed that the “intake manager” felt that it had nothing to do with the vaccines at all.

Not another peep has occurred. They are either completely underfunded, totally overwhelmed, or purposely spiking reports. I can come to no other conclusion.

I have called my Rep and 2 Sen offices and have been kindly told that they do not get involved in medical issues.

Just an anecdotal data point.

I have now reported to the VAERS about a dozen complications related to the vaccines to VAERS.

One of which was a death. 3 of which were other very significant medical issues known to be a problem with these vaccines with all 3 landing in the hospital. All 3 are currently fine. The other 8 are concerning issues that may or may not have a thing to do with the vaccines – and clearly stated in the VAERS reports I filed. It was all about the timing.

In years past – as a board-certified Internist – I would have been contacted before the day was over by a practitioner to discuss the death and the 3 hospitalizations. When I was at the big academic center I worked with recently approved pharma stuff all the time – so this happened often enough to be noticeable.

Not a single one of the 12 reports has appeared on the VAERS website at all. I have only received initial confirmatory emails. I have not been called or contacted in any way regarding any of the hospitalizations. The one death did generate a call requesting medical records – at which time I was informed that the “intake manager” felt that it had nothing to do with the vaccines at all.

Not another peep has occurred. They are either completely underfunded, totally overwhelmed, or purposely spiking reports. I can come to no other conclusion.

I have called my Rep and 2 Sen offices and have been kindly told that they do not get involved in medical issues.

Do not get involved in medical issues? Restated, they do not want to do their jobs, which is representing the people in their district, serving and helping them. What jackasses. If you can give them a generous bribe consideration donation, maybe they will deign to do so.

Do not get involved in medical issues? Restated, they do not want to do their jobs, which is representing the people in their district, serving and helping them. What jackasses. If you can give them a generous bribe consideration donation, maybe they will deign to do so.

Do not get involved in medical issues? Restated, they do not want to do their jobs, which is representing the people in their district, serving and helping them. What jackasses. If you can give them a generous bribe consideration donation, maybe they will deign to do so.

No – the confirmation email had a number – but it is not the official database number that goes in the VAERS –
I have been looking once a week – none of them have showed up.

They did not call me about the death report until an entire 6 weeks or so had passed.

Are you able to track your 12 submissions by the VAERS ID number?

Are you able to track your 12 submissions by the VAERS ID number?

No – the confirmation email had a number – but it is not the official database number that goes in the VAERS –
I have been looking once a week – none of them have showed up.

They did not call me about the death report until an entire 6 weeks or so had passed.

No – the confirmation email had a number – but it is not the official database number that goes in the VAERS –
I have been looking once a week – none of them have showed up.

They did not call me about the death report until an entire 6 weeks or so had passed.

No – the confirmation email had a number – but it is not the official database number that goes in the VAERS –
I have been looking once a week – none of them have showed up.

They did not call me about the death report until an entire 6 weeks or so had passed.

What’s old is new again
https://inequality.org/research/privatization-chicago/

The Reason Foundation Yikes
https://reason.org/commentary/chicago-leads-the-way-on-local/

What’s old is new again
https://inequality.org/research/privatization-chicago/

The Reason Foundation Yikes
https://reason.org/commentary/chicago-leads-the-way-on-local/

What’s old is new again
https://inequality.org/research/privatization-chicago/

The Reason Foundation Yikes
https://reason.org/commentary/chicago-leads-the-way-on-local/

Since the first reports started coming out about this, it is very clear that something very strange is going on.

The organism causing Mucormycosis is actually everywhere. We as humans are likely exposed daily, the dose depending on where you are in the world and your location’s climate. Normal immune hosts dispatch it immediately upon contact.

The only times I have ever seen this problem are in severely immunosuppressed individuals. Most notably AIDS and diabetics with chronic A1c levels above 12.

It is horrible. Unfixable by antifungals, it often requires drastic exculpatory extraction. It has a predilection for the sinuses and so that means the patient gets half their face cut out often with eyes included. It is very often fatal.

The immunsuppression normally required for this to get started requires years to develop normally. Even in the chemo related scenarios months are required.

As Dr McCoy would say Jim, This is damn peculiar.

We are still in the very early learning phase with this virus. This is screaming to us something about how it involves our immune systems. It could be very important. Sometimes, these types of things are instrumental in the solutions and cures. It is just very unfortunate for the patients. Thankfully, it does not appear to be very common.

Hypothesis: The emergence of mucormycosis as a complication of Covid-19 represents severe immunodeficiency induced by repeated reinfection with SARS-CoV-2.

Is this not the Occam’s razor best candidate?

Hypothesis: The emergence of mucormycosis as a complication of Covid-19 represents severe immunodeficiency induced by repeated reinfection with SARS-CoV-2.

Is this not the Occam’s razor best candidate?

Since the first reports started coming out about this, it is very clear that something very strange is going on.

The organism causing Mucormycosis is actually everywhere. We as humans are likely exposed daily, the dose depending on where you are in the world and your location’s climate. Normal immune hosts dispatch it immediately upon contact.

The only times I have ever seen this problem are in severely immunosuppressed individuals. Most notably AIDS and diabetics with chronic A1c levels above 12.

It is horrible. Unfixable by antifungals, it often requires drastic exculpatory extraction. It has a predilection for the sinuses and so that means the patient gets half their face cut out often with eyes included. It is very often fatal.

The immunsuppression normally required for this to get started requires years to develop normally. Even in the chemo related scenarios months are required.

As Dr McCoy would say Jim, This is damn peculiar.

We are still in the very early learning phase with this virus. This is screaming to us something about how it involves our immune systems. It could be very important. Sometimes, these types of things are instrumental in the solutions and cures. It is just very unfortunate for the patients. Thankfully, it does not appear to be very common.

Since the first reports started coming out about this, it is very clear that something very strange is going on.

The organism causing Mucormycosis is actually everywhere. We as humans are likely exposed daily, the dose depending on where you are in the world and your location’s climate. Normal immune hosts dispatch it immediately upon contact.

The only times I have ever seen this problem are in severely immunosuppressed individuals. Most notably AIDS and diabetics with chronic A1c levels above 12.

It is horrible. Unfixable by antifungals, it often requires drastic exculpatory extraction. It has a predilection for the sinuses and so that means the patient gets half their face cut out often with eyes included. It is very often fatal.

The immunsuppression normally required for this to get started requires years to develop normally. Even in the chemo related scenarios months are required.

As Dr McCoy would say Jim, This is damn peculiar.

We are still in the very early learning phase with this virus. This is screaming to us something about how it involves our immune systems. It could be very important. Sometimes, these types of things are instrumental in the solutions and cures. It is just very unfortunate for the patients. Thankfully, it does not appear to be very common.

Since the first reports started coming out about this, it is very clear that something very strange is going on.

The organism causing Mucormycosis is actually everywhere. We as humans are likely exposed daily, the dose depending on where you are in the world and your location’s climate. Normal immune hosts dispatch it immediately upon contact.

The only times I have ever seen this problem are in severely immunosuppressed individuals. Most notably AIDS and diabetics with chronic A1c levels above 12.

It is horrible. Unfixable by antifungals, it often requires drastic exculpatory extraction. It has a predilection for the sinuses and so that means the patient gets half their face cut out often with eyes included. It is very often fatal.

The immunsuppression normally required for this to get started requires years to develop normally. Even in the chemo related scenarios months are required.

As Dr McCoy would say Jim, This is damn peculiar.

We are still in the very early learning phase with this virus. This is screaming to us something about how it involves our immune systems. It could be very important. Sometimes, these types of things are instrumental in the solutions and cures. It is just very unfortunate for the patients. Thankfully, it does not appear to be very common.

This is so far right on the script that many other pandemics have brought to the stage before.

They are not necessarily the cause of the disruption – but they are what starts the dominos falling. They have a history of exposing all of society’s problems for all to see.

This one has performed its task well.. We will see how bad the dominos falling is in the future compared to previous pandemics.

I for one am not entirely sure this virus is yet done with humanity, but that which has already been unleashed has to play out as well.

This is so far right on the script that many other pandemics have brought to the stage before.

They are not necessarily the cause of the disruption – but they are what starts the dominos falling. They have a history of exposing all of society’s problems for all to see.

This one has performed its task well.. We will see how bad the dominos falling is in the future compared to previous pandemics.

I for one am not entirely sure this virus is yet done with humanity, but that which has already been unleashed has to play out as well.

This is so far right on the script that many other pandemics have brought to the stage before.

They are not necessarily the cause of the disruption – but they are what starts the dominos falling. They have a history of exposing all of society’s problems for all to see.

This one has performed its task well.. We will see how bad the dominos falling is in the future compared to previous pandemics.

I for one am not entirely sure this virus is yet done with humanity, but that which has already been unleashed has to play out as well.

This is so far right on the script that many other pandemics have brought to the stage before.

They are not necessarily the cause of the disruption – but they are what starts the dominos falling. They have a history of exposing all of society’s problems for all to see.

This one has performed its task well.. We will see how bad the dominos falling is in the future compared to previous pandemics.

I for one am not entirely sure this virus is yet done with humanity, but that which has already been unleashed has to play out as well.

That is of course assuming that people will be able to handle repeated mRNA vaccines. There is considerable doubt in my circles that will be possible. Each successive one brings on a stronger reaction. Sooner or later, the reactions are no longer minor.

All will be known soon enough.

That is of course assuming that people will be able to handle repeated mRNA vaccines. There is considerable doubt in my circles that will be possible. Each successive one brings on a stronger reaction. Sooner or later, the reactions are no longer minor.

All will be known soon enough.

The widely distributed “50% of new cases are in fully vaccinated people” headline is misleading at best, and your gloss on what the data tells us reflects a common misunderstanding. See here: https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1408773450882236418?s=20

The widely distributed “50% of new cases are in fully vaccinated people” headline is misleading at best, and your gloss on what the data tells us reflects a common misunderstanding. See here: https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1408773450882236418?s=20

Fair enough. More thorough analysis here (though also Twitter), FWIW: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770?s=20

Good discussion, but two different “answers”. There is no “gloss on what the data tells us”, since neither article has the source data. Surowiecki proposes in a titter feed (no source documents) that here’s only “about” 50 infections in “fully” vaccinated people. The Business Insider quotes Chezy Levy, the director-general of Israel’s health ministry in saying “we are still checking how many vaccinated people have also been infected”. To me the implication is that there are vaccinated people getting the Delta variant (and presumably passing it on). Bad news since extrapolating either of these numbers out to the global population means a successful evolution on the part of the virus. And there are many variants to come. There is no “gloss” on the data since neither article supplies data, other than cursory. We will see what we will see.

Good discussion, but two different “answers”. There is no “gloss on what the data tells us”, since neither article has the source data. Surowiecki proposes in a titter feed (no source documents) that here’s only “about” 50 infections in “fully” vaccinated people. The Business Insider quotes Chezy Levy, the director-general of Israel’s health ministry in saying “we are still checking how many vaccinated people have also been infected”. To me the implication is that there are vaccinated people getting the Delta variant (and presumably passing it on). Bad news since extrapolating either of these numbers out to the global population means a successful evolution on the part of the virus. And there are many variants to come. There is no “gloss” on the data since neither article supplies data, other than cursory. We will see what we will see.

Fair enough. More thorough analysis here (though also Twitter), FWIW: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770?s=20

Fair enough. More thorough analysis here (though also Twitter), FWIW: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770?s=20

Fair enough. More thorough analysis here (though also Twitter), FWIW: https://twitter.com/Jeffely/status/1408500890999328770?s=20

I simply cannot stress this too many times.

When articles in the media or twitter feeds are only talking in percentage terms, it is very often being severely manipulated. This has unfortunately been a Big Pharma hoodwinking tool for a long long time. It is much easier for our brains to work in the realm of percentage thinking than actual raw numbers.

Since the beginning of this pandemic, percentage terms have been used by all sides to make very misleading assertions. This is likely no different. Although I am still poring over these articles right now.

RAW NUMBERS PLEASE – and yet – I am not sure I have seen a raw numbers article or discussion since the very beginning outside of medical/epidemiological/statistical reports. They never exist in the mainstream press.

I wonder why?

I simply cannot stress this too many times.

When articles in the media or twitter feeds are only talking in percentage terms, it is very often being severely manipulated. This has unfortunately been a Big Pharma hoodwinking tool for a long long time. It is much easier for our brains to work in the realm of percentage thinking than actual raw numbers.

Since the beginning of this pandemic, percentage terms have been used by all sides to make very misleading assertions. This is likely no different. Although I am still poring over these articles right now.

RAW NUMBERS PLEASE – and yet – I am not sure I have seen a raw numbers article or discussion since the very beginning outside of medical/epidemiological/statistical reports. They never exist in the mainstream press.

I wonder why?

I simply cannot stress this too many times.

When articles in the media or twitter feeds are only talking in percentage terms, it is very often being severely manipulated. This has unfortunately been a Big Pharma hoodwinking tool for a long long time. It is much easier for our brains to work in the realm of percentage thinking than actual raw numbers.

Since the beginning of this pandemic, percentage terms have been used by all sides to make very misleading assertions. This is likely no different. Although I am still poring over these articles right now.

RAW NUMBERS PLEASE – and yet – I am not sure I have seen a raw numbers article or discussion since the very beginning outside of medical/epidemiological/statistical reports. They never exist in the mainstream press.

I wonder why?

It has been posited that the common cold began as the 1889-1890 Russian flu that killed over 1 million people out of a population of 1.5 billion. https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/qa-why-history-suggests-covid-19-here-stay.html
Nicholas Christakis’ book Apollo’s Arrow is an entertaining and well-written book on epidemics through history, including the Russian flu and our current pandemic. He has a chapter discussing the Russian flu and its impact. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/books/review/apollos-arrow-coronavirus-nicholas-christakis.html

It has been posited that the common cold began as the 1889-1890 Russian flu that killed over 1 million people out of a population of 1.5 billion. https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/qa-why-history-suggests-covid-19-here-stay.html
Nicholas Christakis’ book Apollo’s Arrow is an entertaining and well-written book on epidemics through history, including the Russian flu and our current pandemic. He has a chapter discussing the Russian flu and its impact. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/books/review/apollos-arrow-coronavirus-nicholas-christakis.html

More accurately, one of the viruses that causes the “common cold” is thought to be behind the Russian or Asiatic Flu pandemic. Common cold may be cause by rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, and others.

The suspect coronavirus behind that pandemic, OC43, has been shown to cause breakouts of pneumonia in recent decades. It is also known to infect neurons.

My relatively uninformed guess of why it becomes less lethal is a form of the hygiene hypothesis. Children get repeated infections to these viruses, and build up partial lifetime protection to them. When the immune system gets compromised, that’s when the infections become deadlier.

More accurately, one of the viruses that causes the “common cold” is thought to be behind the Russian or Asiatic Flu pandemic. Common cold may be cause by rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, and others.

The suspect coronavirus behind that pandemic, OC43, has been shown to cause breakouts of pneumonia in recent decades. It is also known to infect neurons.

My relatively uninformed guess of why it becomes less lethal is a form of the hygiene hypothesis. Children get repeated infections to these viruses, and build up partial lifetime protection to them. When the immune system gets compromised, that’s when the infections become deadlier.

More accurately, one of the viruses that causes the “common cold” is thought to be behind the Russian or Asiatic Flu pandemic. Common cold may be cause by rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, and others.

The suspect coronavirus behind that pandemic, OC43, has been shown to cause breakouts of pneumonia in recent decades. It is also known to infect neurons.

My relatively uninformed guess of why it becomes less lethal is a form of the hygiene hypothesis. Children get repeated infections to these viruses, and build up partial lifetime protection to them. When the immune system gets compromised, that’s when the infections become deadlier.

The “common cold” is caused by multiple different viruses in multiple different families – rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, RSV viruses – and coronaviruses. You are referring to coronavirus OC43 – which is indeed almost assuredly the cause of the 1890s pandemic. That is but one of 4 coronaviruses circulating around the world yearly that cause the “cold”. There are multiple dozens of others in the other families.

Even though they are in completely different families – and have completely different traits – there is one thing linking them all together – there really is no such thing as “herd immunity” – it simply does not exist in viruses that cause these types of illnesses. If there were, we would not have them year after year after year…….Why our citizenry is not being informed ( and even being deceived) of simple facts like this is just beyond me.

Not all virus families act alike. Herd immunity is a foundational feature of things like measles and smallpox – it is basically a non-actor in respiratory viruses and influenza.

The “common cold” is caused by multiple different viruses in multiple different families – rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, RSV viruses – and coronaviruses. You are referring to coronavirus OC43 – which is indeed almost assuredly the cause of the 1890s pandemic. That is but one of 4 coronaviruses circulating around the world yearly that cause the “cold”. There are multiple dozens of others in the other families.

Even though they are in completely different families – and have completely different traits – there is one thing linking them all together – there really is no such thing as “herd immunity” – it simply does not exist in viruses that cause these types of illnesses. If there were, we would not have them year after year after year…….Why our citizenry is not being informed ( and even being deceived) of simple facts like this is just beyond me.

Not all virus families act alike. Herd immunity is a foundational feature of things like measles and smallpox – it is basically a non-actor in respiratory viruses and influenza.

The “common cold” is caused by multiple different viruses in multiple different families – rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, RSV viruses – and coronaviruses. You are referring to coronavirus OC43 – which is indeed almost assuredly the cause of the 1890s pandemic. That is but one of 4 coronaviruses circulating around the world yearly that cause the “cold”. There are multiple dozens of others in the other families.

Even though they are in completely different families – and have completely different traits – there is one thing linking them all together – there really is no such thing as “herd immunity” – it simply does not exist in viruses that cause these types of illnesses. If there were, we would not have them year after year after year…….Why our citizenry is not being informed ( and even being deceived) of simple facts like this is just beyond me.

Not all virus families act alike. Herd immunity is a foundational feature of things like measles and smallpox – it is basically a non-actor in respiratory viruses and influenza.

I searched and you all don’t have a “WTH??? ” section for things like this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/study-finds-pfizer-and-moderna-covid-vaccines-may-offer-protection-for-years-as-australia-struggles-to-contain-delta-variant-11624892042?mod=home-page/
“The study, conducted by researchers at Washington University in St. Louis, suggests that people vaccinated with those shots may not need boosters, as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. It also found that people who have recovered from COVID before being vaccinated “produced the most robust serologic responses,” showing they enjoy a strong immune response….”

So protection will last for years if all the things that have already happened hadn’t happened already….

I searched and you all don’t have a “WTH??? ” section for things like this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/study-finds-pfizer-and-moderna-covid-vaccines-may-offer-protection-for-years-as-australia-struggles-to-contain-delta-variant-11624892042?mod=home-page/
“The study, conducted by researchers at Washington University in St. Louis, suggests that people vaccinated with those shots may not need boosters, as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. It also found that people who have recovered from COVID before being vaccinated “produced the most robust serologic responses,” showing they enjoy a strong immune response….”

So protection will last for years if all the things that have already happened hadn’t happened already….

If this is referring to the same study I think it is – the N was 12. And it was not very well delineated what exactly some of their endpoint definitions were.

Another big problem I have seen a lot of lately – extrapolating big assertions from in vitro studies in perfect conditions. This is not what the vaccines will be dealing with in the real world.

I saw this same amazing headline the past few days – from articles like this – and the NYT – and immediately called my virologist friend – IS THIS REALLY THE CASE? – answer – a big meh. Maybe – but not a very comprehensive study in his opinion.

I hope beyond hope it is true – but the tell in your above quote is the following – as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. That is a very big if – and really negates the fireworks of the headlines in my opinion.

Having these kinds of things litigated in the mainstream media in my opinion is doing far more harm than good. This is medical science – everything at this point is a hypothesis – and the way many of these articles are framed makes a non-informed reader feel certainty.

If this is referring to the same study I think it is – the N was 12. And it was not very well delineated what exactly some of their endpoint definitions were.

Another big problem I have seen a lot of lately – extrapolating big assertions from in vitro studies in perfect conditions. This is not what the vaccines will be dealing with in the real world.

I saw this same amazing headline the past few days – from articles like this – and the NYT – and immediately called my virologist friend – IS THIS REALLY THE CASE? – answer – a big meh. Maybe – but not a very comprehensive study in his opinion.

I hope beyond hope it is true – but the tell in your above quote is the following – as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. That is a very big if – and really negates the fireworks of the headlines in my opinion.

Having these kinds of things litigated in the mainstream media in my opinion is doing far more harm than good. This is medical science – everything at this point is a hypothesis – and the way many of these articles are framed makes a non-informed reader feel certainty.

If this is referring to the same study I think it is – the N was 12. And it was not very well delineated what exactly some of their endpoint definitions were.

Another big problem I have seen a lot of lately – extrapolating big assertions from in vitro studies in perfect conditions. This is not what the vaccines will be dealing with in the real world.

I saw this same amazing headline the past few days – from articles like this – and the NYT – and immediately called my virologist friend – IS THIS REALLY THE CASE? – answer – a big meh. Maybe – but not a very comprehensive study in his opinion.

I hope beyond hope it is true – but the tell in your above quote is the following – as long as the virus does not mutate or give rise to new vaccine-resistant variants. That is a very big if – and really negates the fireworks of the headlines in my opinion.

Having these kinds of things litigated in the mainstream media in my opinion is doing far more harm than good. This is medical science – everything at this point is a hypothesis – and the way many of these articles are framed makes a non-informed reader feel certainty.

The Hill article “Researchers pinpoint possible signs you have Covid-19 after being vaccinated,” uncritically repeats the tired CDC talking point that

“Less than 1 in 10,000 people so far have experienced a “breakthrough case” in the United States…”

The link included to support that assertion leads to the Harvard Health Publishing article “Should we track all breakthrough cases of Covid-19?” In that article, the author writes,

“More than 10,000 of these so-called breakthrough cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the US. Seems like a large number, right? But keep in mind that nearly 133 million people have been vaccinated, so these breakthrough cases represent less than one in 10,000. “

This is flat out wrong however; the CDC report states quite clearly that the number of breakthrough cases in the period of the study was 10,000 out of 101,000,000 fully vaccinated people – not 130,000,000 people.

So claiming that the breakthrough rate is less than one on 10,000 is wrong.

Even saying that the breakthrough rate is 1 in 10,000 is a stretch – the CDC acknowledges in the same report that the 10,000 breakthrough case number is likely an undercount.

If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,0000 fully vaccinated people.

But according to another CDC study involving healthcare workers, first responders and other essential workers, the breakthrough rate was about 90 per 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

So now the rate of breakthrough cases varies from .01% (as claimed in the Hill article), to .1% (the Massachusetts report) all the way to 9% (the CDC essential worker study).

Instead of mindlessly repeating CDC talking points, the media should be doing more to shed light on realistic breakthrough rates and which groups are especially at risk.

The Hill article “Researchers pinpoint possible signs you have Covid-19 after being vaccinated,” uncritically repeats the tired CDC talking point that

“Less than 1 in 10,000 people so far have experienced a “breakthrough case” in the United States…”

The link included to support that assertion leads to the Harvard Health Publishing article “Should we track all breakthrough cases of Covid-19?” In that article, the author writes,

“More than 10,000 of these so-called breakthrough cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the US. Seems like a large number, right? But keep in mind that nearly 133 million people have been vaccinated, so these breakthrough cases represent less than one in 10,000. “

This is flat out wrong however; the CDC report states quite clearly that the number of breakthrough cases in the period of the study was 10,000 out of 101,000,000 fully vaccinated people – not 130,000,000 people.

So claiming that the breakthrough rate is less than one on 10,000 is wrong.

Even saying that the breakthrough rate is 1 in 10,000 is a stretch – the CDC acknowledges in the same report that the 10,000 breakthrough case number is likely an undercount.

If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,0000 fully vaccinated people.

But according to another CDC study involving healthcare workers, first responders and other essential workers, the breakthrough rate was about 90 per 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

So now the rate of breakthrough cases varies from .01% (as claimed in the Hill article), to .1% (the Massachusetts report) all the way to 9% (the CDC essential worker study).

Instead of mindlessly repeating CDC talking points, the media should be doing more to shed light on realistic breakthrough rates and which groups are especially at risk.

Correction — The sentence above should read:

If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

Correction — The sentence above should read:

If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

Correction — The sentence above should read:

If Massachusetts is any indication, the more accurate breakthrough rate for the general population is about 1 in 1,000 fully vaccinated people.

The 95% number I believe you are quoting is from the original Pfizer study from December.

The “most other vaccines are in 80-90% range” – I am not certain what you are talking about. It depends on what exact parameter to which you are referring. When making comparisons like that , it is essential to compare apples to apples – and not apples to oranges. For example, the 60% flu shot number often discussed every year – is not at all the same parameter as the 95% RRR in case numbers in the Pfizer study for their COVID vaccine.

That Pfizer number is a relative risk reduction – (NOT absolute risk reduction). Relative and absolute risk reduction mean two completely different things. The issue is that RRR of 95% does not in any way imply a blanket 95% protection. This is not what that number means, especially in trials like the original Pfizer trial, where the vast majority of patients in both the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups remained negative throughout the whole study.

However, our media has gone out of its way to make certain though that every American thinks that. Big Pharma uses these RRR numbers in their ads and glossies all the time – because in general they look really good to people who do not marinate themselves in medical statistics every day.

We should also remember that historically in vaccine research, the risk reduction in case numbers was not a leading indicator of efficacy of the vaccine. Rather, mortality efficacy, morbidity efficacy, and pathogen transmission rates were far more important – and critical to be done before approval was even considered. We have a bit more info about these critical parameters than we did in December but not much.

What I am saying is that this 95% number should in no way be being used in the way you are thinking about it – nor should the RRR be being used in the way the CDC or the vast majority of the media are using it in their reporting. It just does not mean what people think it does. And the case number reduction rate is only a very minor point in the actual efficacy of a vaccine.

 

People keep forgetting that vaccine effectiveness is 95% at best, most vaccines are in 80-90% range. That means that at least 5% (more like 10-20%) of vaccinated people did not develop full immunity. Breakthrough infections are not a surprise as we are in the middle of the pandemic and there is ample opportunity to get infected.

Even 9% number from the CDC essential worker survey is very realistic, this is a group that has high level of exposure to potentially infected people, so it’s very likely to get infected if they didn’t develop immunity.

So none of this is surprising, this is a very different situation from other vaccines where you preemptively vaccinate the population to prevent the spread of the disease. In that case the disease has to spread through a largely vaccinated populace, so typically the probability of infection is very low. Here we are dealing with vaccinating for a virus that’s already widespread, it’s a very different mechanism.

People keep forgetting that vaccine effectiveness is 95% at best, most vaccines are in 80-90% range. That means that at least 5% (more like 10-20%) of vaccinated people did not develop full immunity. Breakthrough infections are not a surprise as we are in the middle of the pandemic and there is ample opportunity to get infected.

Even 9% number from the CDC essential worker survey is very realistic, this is a group that has high level of exposure to potentially infected people, so it’s very likely to get infected if they didn’t develop immunity.

So none of this is surprising, this is a very different situation from other vaccines where you preemptively vaccinate the population to prevent the spread of the disease. In that case the disease has to spread through a largely vaccinated populace, so typically the probability of infection is very low. Here we are dealing with vaccinating for a virus that’s already widespread, it’s a very different mechanism.

The 95% number I believe you are quoting is from the original Pfizer study from December.

The “most other vaccines are in 80-90% range” – I am not certain what you are talking about. It depends on what exact parameter to which you are referring. When making comparisons like that , it is essential to compare apples to apples – and not apples to oranges. For example, the 60% flu shot number often discussed every year – is not at all the same parameter as the 95% RRR in case numbers in the Pfizer study for their COVID vaccine.

That Pfizer number is a relative risk reduction – (NOT absolute risk reduction). Relative and absolute risk reduction mean two completely different things. The issue is that RRR of 95% does not in any way imply a blanket 95% protection. This is not what that number means, especially in trials like the original Pfizer trial, where the vast majority of patients in both the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups remained negative throughout the whole study.

However, our media has gone out of its way to make certain though that every American thinks that. Big Pharma uses these RRR numbers in their ads and glossies all the time – because in general they look really good to people who do not marinate themselves in medical statistics every day.

We should also remember that historically in vaccine research, the risk reduction in case numbers was not a leading indicator of efficacy of the vaccine. Rather, mortality efficacy, morbidity efficacy, and pathogen transmission rates were far more important – and critical to be done before approval was even considered. We have a bit more info about these critical parameters than we did in December but not much.

What I am saying is that this 95% number should in no way be being used in the way you are thinking about it – nor should the RRR be being used in the way the CDC or the vast majority of the media are using it in their reporting. It just does not mean what people think it does. And the case number reduction rate is only a very minor point in the actual efficacy of a vaccine.

 

The 95% number I believe you are quoting is from the original Pfizer study from December.

The “most other vaccines are in 80-90% range” – I am not certain what you are talking about. It depends on what exact parameter to which you are referring. When making comparisons like that , it is essential to compare apples to apples – and not apples to oranges. For example, the 60% flu shot number often discussed every year – is not at all the same parameter as the 95% RRR in case numbers in the Pfizer study for their COVID vaccine.

That Pfizer number is a relative risk reduction – (NOT absolute risk reduction). Relative and absolute risk reduction mean two completely different things. The issue is that RRR of 95% does not in any way imply a blanket 95% protection. This is not what that number means, especially in trials like the original Pfizer trial, where the vast majority of patients in both the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups remained negative throughout the whole study.

However, our media has gone out of its way to make certain though that every American thinks that. Big Pharma uses these RRR numbers in their ads and glossies all the time – because in general they look really good to people who do not marinate themselves in medical statistics every day.

We should also remember that historically in vaccine research, the risk reduction in case numbers was not a leading indicator of efficacy of the vaccine. Rather, mortality efficacy, morbidity efficacy, and pathogen transmission rates were far more important – and critical to be done before approval was even considered. We have a bit more info about these critical parameters than we did in December but not much.

What I am saying is that this 95% number should in no way be being used in the way you are thinking about it – nor should the RRR be being used in the way the CDC or the vast majority of the media are using it in their reporting. It just does not mean what people think it does. And the case number reduction rate is only a very minor point in the actual efficacy of a vaccine.

 

The 95% number I believe you are quoting is from the original Pfizer study from December.

The “most other vaccines are in 80-90% range” – I am not certain what you are talking about. It depends on what exact parameter to which you are referring. When making comparisons like that , it is essential to compare apples to apples – and not apples to oranges. For example, the 60% flu shot number often discussed every year – is not at all the same parameter as the 95% RRR in case numbers in the Pfizer study for their COVID vaccine.

That Pfizer number is a relative risk reduction – (NOT absolute risk reduction). Relative and absolute risk reduction mean two completely different things. The issue is that RRR of 95% does not in any way imply a blanket 95% protection. This is not what that number means, especially in trials like the original Pfizer trial, where the vast majority of patients in both the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups remained negative throughout the whole study.

However, our media has gone out of its way to make certain though that every American thinks that. Big Pharma uses these RRR numbers in their ads and glossies all the time – because in general they look really good to people who do not marinate themselves in medical statistics every day.

We should also remember that historically in vaccine research, the risk reduction in case numbers was not a leading indicator of efficacy of the vaccine. Rather, mortality efficacy, morbidity efficacy, and pathogen transmission rates were far more important – and critical to be done before approval was even considered. We have a bit more info about these critical parameters than we did in December but not much.

What I am saying is that this 95% number should in no way be being used in the way you are thinking about it – nor should the RRR be being used in the way the CDC or the vast majority of the media are using it in their reporting. It just does not mean what people think it does. And the case number reduction rate is only a very minor point in the actual efficacy of a vaccine.